cyclical names, which have not kept pace with the market again. romaine: looking at the s&p sectors, the closing bell, only two of those finishing in the green. communication services and infotech. that is on the back of apple. everything else is red. a down day, not down right that bad, only .2%. the s&p 500 did trade back above the record high level, 33.86. could not hold it. caroline: and volumes were off. not much commitments behind what was an earlier rally. we have a risk on move to stocks, then it is about 1:00, 2:00, whether it is profit taking or reanalysis of the market. taylor: today was on the heels of the 10, 20, 30 year bond

options. the 30 year seemed to not go as well as planned. your getting a huge lift up in yields. the last week, we are up 15 basis points. you are starting to see a repricing underway. romaine: we did have another ipo today. we had qe holdings which is a chinese company that did debut, up 87% on the day. there is risk appetite, people are picking and choosing bets as anthony was alluding to. let's bring him back into the conversation. global strategist at a mayor price. se.n you look -- ameripri when you look at the bond market and the positioning of yields here in the idea that a lot of the run-up we have seen to risk assets is at least in part due to the record low yields, do you worry if we see a material

movement up in yields, the selloff in the treasuries continuing, that would have any tangible effect on equities? anthony: it could. not something that keeps me up at night. the main drivers are trends in the economy, in the environ -- in the virus, and if we will get a vaccine by the end of this year. those are the big drivers of stock prices. they will dictate the trajectory of earnings and the amount of economic activity. i believe with yields so low, it is the tina trade. there is no other alternative for investors seeking drugs -- growth and yield. for the value and cyclical names and financials and industrials, some of those have good yields. i think it is pushing investors out the risk curve to look at these equities with dividend yields, as opposed to looking at

high-quality bonds and 10 year treasury. one of the things we have been watching is the default rates rising. default rates at the end of july were around to explain what percent for high-yield beer that is above the 2.4% we saw a year ago. even though we have this massive stimulus that is helping support some of these lower rated companies, you are starting to see defaults rise a little bit. asm a concern perspective, investors have been pushed out, you are seeing the metrics that maybe kind of go against that. you have to take a very balanced , high-quality approach. whether that is in equities or fixed income, to maybe mitigate the volatility or pressure we may see if you don't see the trends in the virus improve materially. we don't get a virus in the back half of the year, or you don't

see economic activity and unemployment drop to the levels investors have priced into equities. that is a risk you have to be cognizant of. it is a risk you have to motivate -- mitigate through diversification and high-quality assets. many have been looking at the quality by passing through earnings in particular. we see that out of the chip sector, i have been bullied around by the u.s. and china today, chip equipment maker, it supplies samsung, they seem to be beating. fourth quarter net sales beating estimates. they are seeing fourth-quarter net sales to be $4.4 billion. the market was looking for $4.4 billion overall. they are setting sites for for guidance higher. the third-quarter numbers at a beach. the $.95beat versus

estimate. -- this is a beat versus the $.95 estimate. it has helped still a mark -- steer the market. anthony: i think the final numbers are not in. 500 companies beat earnings expectations in q2, and the analyst took down those expectations to the floor. looking out into q3 and looking at 2-4, you can see analyst estimates creeping up. the lower hurdle is starting to come up. there is still room for companies to over earned what analysts are estimating if we see the recovery. from an earnings perspective, there is opportunity for companies to surpass those estimates. see believe you need to

in employment start to improve. you need to see spending continue, get the retail sales number, mobility trends, need activity in the economy to drive those earnings. 2021,k looking out to that is the biggest risk because based on 2021 earnings, the market is saying we will be back to pre-pandemic levels. that is still a difficult pill to swallow, if we see a slow and choppy recovery. the markets trading in 2021, and those estimates are still high. caroline: always great to get your voice. global market strategist. that doesn't for the closing bell -- does it for the closing bell. we will look at earnings from baidu. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: bloomberg world headquarters. i am caroline hyde. , i market thatss fizzled once again. the s&p 500 moving away from the record all-time high we managed to pierce yesterday. it was google on the higher side but cisco leading a slower with microsoft. the u.s. jobless claims falling below one million from the first time of the pandemic. but it is still many americans collecting unemployment benefits. no stimulus agreement insight.

commodities, silver has been on the rise. the precious metal jumping at one point the most since december poi -- 2014. all of that and more coming up. take it through the jobs breakdown for us. taylor: some good news, but still a long ways to go. initial jobless claims falling below one million. that is going back down to below one million for the first time since march. continuing claims, 15.5 million, the lowest since april. the good news is decline was broad-based across the states. i will bring in constance hunter. some goodike we had milestones today, but there is still a long way to go. amazing what we are saying under one million initial jobless claims is good news, but we always look at the second

derivative, what is the change? the change from the prior week is a part -- a positive change. the change from a month ago is positive. we are moving in the right direction even if it is not as swiftly as everybody would like. we have been looking at a lot of high-frequency data. one of the things we are seeing in thert of plateau data. we are not seeing it fall back down. for nowld suggest that we are not going to go back to the severe job losses that we saw earlier in the pandemic. romaine: so we don't go back to those job losses. the trajectory has been encouraging on the top line numbers. -- question is, when or if when do we get back to a level

that would be commensurate with priore saw in employment to the crisis? constance: we are years away from that. i think so. let's look at the opentable data. in the best case, we have restaurants that are 25% below previous years capacity. that is a handful of cities. if you are running a restaurant, you can't run below 97% capacity day after day. the margins are not there. there is not sufficient assistance to help those bridge to the other side, what we will , and there closures most effective businesses. what we do see perverts of the -- for certain parts of the industry is to work more safely than we had first anticipated, so those that can operate in this environment in a modified

way and continue, that is a better outcome than anticipated. what we will see as the higher wall -- firewall we tried to build is beginning to break down. we will see this lead into other sectors. that have not yet an impacted, like in a normal recession. you see employment as a lagging indicator. caroline: it is a false sense of security. we will have to brace ourselves for the august numbers and onward? constance: our initial read, and we are using -- we are trained leading with -- triangulating with data is we will see improvement in august. september and october, what will happen with school opening? for a lot of people, that have

to go to work, that can't work from home, if their child, their children are not in education all day, it poses a lot of challenges. we saw that in the quit rate, the jolts numbers. we will see at once we get into september timeframe if we don't have full school reopening. which it doesn't look like we will have. taylor: what is the sense of urgency in congress after this jobs report to act, to come to an agreement? who blinks first? constance: i would not be surprised if we are going to need a response from the markets like we had after the first part p vote, where they said no way, is that going to be your final decision? i would not be surprised if we will need some sort of feedback

loop to jolt congress into taking action that they seem to , and thent to take willingness to compromise in the public statements has broken down significantly. what i hear from people is behind the scenes there is more progress and cooperation than one would believe from the public statements but not enough to get a deal across. romaine: with regards to the job recovery here, can you talk about it quickly on a geographic basis and whether the job gains are going to reflect some of the shifts we have seen in people moving to suburban areas or out of the urban centers? constance: that is an excellent question. we are seeing suburban areas that are adjacent to urban areas, really flourish. ,f your adjacent to a large

densely populated urban area, we are seeing significant bump in real estate in suburban areas and obviously in employment, in a variety of different services , whichist in these areas is to be expected. we are seeing this shift in activity. the question is what will happen going forward. if you look at online store sales, they have been positive. you have seen a big increase in home improvement door sales. there are parts of retail that are holding their own. if you look at job losses in the pandemic compared to the level natural crisis, we have lost retail jobs, but not as many as we lost during the global financial crisis. romaine: it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. that is constance hunter, the chief economist at kpmg. this is bloomberg. ♪

riding: a lot of hopes on a coronavirus vaccine. the ceo of novartis says we might wait until 2021 to get the vaccine. we heard earlier from the ceo of that company. >> our efforts are focused on treatments. we have clinical trials and multiple experts -- efforts for studies. we have a broad, internal research effort to look at novel medicines. but we are not looking at this as a driver. we are doing it for a humanitarian standpoint. we committed to provide 15 medicines at no profit to 79

countries the w.h.o. recommends for the treatment of coronavirus patients that includes one of the medicines that is shown to have a mortality benefit. i believe many of the companies in our industry with respect to vaccines have committed to doing this more on a humanitarian basis. i think we are all in this together as a global community novartis is try to do its part. vaccineve had plenty of news or updates on progress on companies like moderna and astrazeneca. wayful yet cautious is the a number of commentators have described how they feel about the story. would that be a fair assessment? what about timescales? been a decade has

working in vaccines. when i look at the data, i would say hopeful but important we remain data driven and science-based and cautious. many instances where we see strong immune responses in phase one clinical trials that don't translate into real world african the in phase three. clinical trials in phase three. let's move on to the business headlines are you. we are looking at the parent of -- mercedes-benz. they have reached an agreement to settle the emissions cases. cars andrs 250,000 vans. they also reached one for the consumer action suit. industrial equipment maker -- expanding further into the digital world. they have agreed to buy one company. capital.ed by thing

-- baincapital. that is your business flash update. romaine: another big story, this is involving apple and epic games. ofc games is accusing apple anticompetitive conduct. they raised information about the dominance of apple and google. >> it is a duopoly. they control 100% of the smartphone market, or something like 99.9%. apple has the majority of revenue in a lot of territories. other countries, google as the majority. it is impossible to look at a territory and say in this space, apple or google is not a monopoly. they have business actresses that only a monopoly to get away with.

more, we wantwith to bring in a bloomberg victim -- opinion columnist who has been covering apple and the tech industry and the issues surrounding it. thank you for being with us. i want to get your thoughts on some of the scrutiny apple has been under, with regards to the app store practices and the in app purchases and the pushback developers and app makers seem to be trying to nudge apple on. now you have epic games, a heavyweight company, saying this is an antitrust issue. >> yes. in june, the e.u. filed two probes into apple, one on apple day and also this instance of the 30% cut they take of digital services sold on the platform. a lot of developers including epic games believe 30% is too high.

the main thing apple does with transactionis 30% fee and it is 10 times more other alternative systems. they are arguing too much, we should be allowed to point to other ways to buy digital content strategists -- services on platforms so consumers don't have to be affected as much. and you were looking into some of apple's practices in the e.u. apple is facing more and more scrutiny. how does this play out? >> this is a marketing thing. he knew that putting this cheaper plan inside the fortnite app, they would remove it. they posted the legal papers they are filing, anticompetitive trust lawsuit against them.

this is almost like a stunt where they knew the press would be all over this and coming to regulators, saying you guys need to move on this. the apple app store was the focus of the hearing by the house subcommittee a week or two ago. it.e.u. is looking at they say you guys need to look at this business practice, it is too aggressive. we need help. i don't think they will win the lawsuit in courts, but they are bringing this issue to the forefront for the e.u. and the u.s. congress to change the laws , to put more policies out there that are against the anticompetitive practices. taylor: apple seems to shrug all .f this off this comes on a day when they are bundling their services, of which you have been writing about, partly the apple arcade

gaming service, bundling it into one subscription service. is this a play on gaming? how do you see the competition? >> it is like wait a minute, how come apple gets 30% of revenue, and in a lot of ways they are competing with us, with apple arcade, netflix, tv, all of these things that rely on the app store for distribution and payment, one do we have to pay apple a big chunk when they are competing against us? that is the main issue, is apple too dominant? they have half of the market share in terms of smartphones. are they competing with everyone else that has relied on their platform to get distributed? romaine: it almost seems structured for a different time and place. something like fortnite and epic

games is built around the ideas of in app purchases, meaning within the fortnite app. a lot of other developers, whether for gaming or productivity, similar sort of things they are working into their model. why have we not seen a little bit more willingness by apple to work with what seems to be a changing environment for how app developers make money? >> apple will argue they are not a monopoly and the 30% thing is fair because everybody else does charge that. microsoft,ndo and further gaming consoles business, charges 30%. but everyone will say smartphone business is a different level. billions, over one billion devices on iphones and ipads. it is a dominant market. 10 years ago, it was a different ballgame. now it is apple and google.

romaine: appreciate you being on. we will be back in a moment. ♪

despite the best efforts of black lives matter movements and others devoted to drawing attention to a sense of the winner take all urban income system, experts say the virus and economic slump will likely increase inequality in cities across the country. what needs to be done to ensure an equal recovery? joining us is the coexecutive director of -- you have helped anthe past really be advisor. if you are in that role now, setting policy priorities, whoever takes charge, come

november, what is a key way we could see a recovery with less inequality than we currently have? >> that is a great question. i am delighted to join you all. the way to think about this is to appreciate that systemic racism, even sexism and other challenges that have been driving social economic inequality for generations are built into system after system, structure after structure. the right answer will be quite multifaceted and comprehensive. is thing we are seeing virtually every economic inequity that existed before the pandemic and recession is made worse by the crises. my hope congress will get back to the negotiating table and really think hard about what

they can enact that would be substantial, sustained and structural. we know we can't go back to the way things were if we want to address inequity in this country. this doesn't look like congress will get back at anytime soon. and if they do this year, it will be short term. with regards to the structural issues you say we need to address, is there a way some of that can be accomplished without being pulled in to the -- beholden to the politics of our government? >> that is a great question. there are some things that states can do and local governments can do. what you think about our social protections system, a lot of it is run through the states in one way or another. let's take the unemployment

insurance system which is front and center with 25 million participants in unemployment programs now. the fact is that if you look across the state, and you look at which states have the most meager systems of benefits, they are the ones with the highest black population shares. states are driving a lot of the iniquity we are seeing in access to adequate unemployment benefits. important now with the expiration of the $600 federal pandemic unemployment compensation increase, which was people,ne to so many but especially black and brown workers. taylor: i am curious how you are thinking about corporate responsibility in this moment. this is as an example, uber and lyft were under pressure because they were not bringing people on as full-time employees with

benefits and health insurance, whatever it be. what is the role at this moment with corporate responsibility to step up as well? >> on the one hand, we have to acknowledge that the federal government has a unique role all of the private actors in the country together can't supplant or replace or substitute for in any way. on the other hand, anyone with some power and resources has responsibility. when a choosy -- a country chooses collectively if an evenly to reduce economic activity to save lives, you can't blame anyone who is struggling for their problems. that means if a company is in a position to keep on workers rather than laying them off, maybe at reduced pay for a

program called work sharing, unemployment insurance system helped support, a company should do that. if a company is able to support workers, to help them maintain continuity of health, that is important when you think about the fact this is a contagious disease pandemic. i think there is a lot of possibilities there. the does not really excuse federal government from acting. fed? ne: what about the there has been talk that inequality should be a third prong the federal reserve should look at. is that a right way? >> one of the important lessons looking at the business cycle over the last many decades, thee the postwar period, federal reserve can put the brakes on employment growth.

gapsve seen persistent between black and white workers, where black workers typically have twice the unemployment rates as white workers and the first to be laid off and the last to be hired. i think it is appropriate for the federal reserve not to just take decisions based on the economic indicators that reflect primarily a majority racial ethnic group. they should look hard at, is it now, we are not worried about this, but as things slow down in the economy that is heating up, when the unemployment seems low but for black workers, it remains at recession levels in many cases, when we are at the tightest labor markets for white workers. romaine: this is an important

issue that will not be solved overnight. it is something we have to continue on. the georgetown center of poverty and inequality coexecutive director and economic advisor, to presumptive democratic national candidate joe biden. this is two big chinese companies that have shares listed in the u.s., baidu out with its earnings, coming in above estimates, the eps also beating estimates, giving a 28.3ast that is a range of to 20 -- the average a was in the range of 27.6 2 billion yuan. there is another company that is affiliated with baidu that has some news out as well. is cooperating with the sec investigation on the back of

seeking financial and operating records from january 2018. this is wrapped up with ,llegations from a short seller and at the moment the company says it can't reject the timing on the outcome, but it asks people to look into the wolfpack allegations, all of this wrapped up in a short seller report coming on this business. keep a close eye on these. let's get the first word. president trump says he opposes additional funding for the u.s. postal service. the president acknowledges his position would starve the agency of money democrats say it needs to process the anticipated surge in mail-in ballots. the president maintains mailing voting would lead to massive voter fraud in the election. israel and the united arab emirates have agreed foldable o-matic ties it to hold the annexation -- full diplomatic ties to halt the annexation.

president trump announced the deal from the oval office earlier. >> this is a historic moment, not since the israel-jordan peace treaty was signed 25 years ago has so much progress been made towards pace in the middle east. stephen: egypt had been the only other country with fully normal ties with israel. palestinians are calling this treason and demanding it be retracted. puerto ricans will have a second chance to vote in primary elections. the u.s. territories supreme court made that ruling today that ordered authorities to aopen polling centers where box of valid supplies prevented people from voting in the first round. five lawsuits were filed against the puerto rico election commission after 60% were able to accept votes. texas officials have launched an investigation into why statewide

-- is showing positive test rates even as other metrics indicate the spread of the virus is slowing. the positive test rate jumped to a record tuesday and has been above 20% since august 8. greg abbott says the jump could mean fewer texans are getting tested for covid-19. brazilian soldiers wearing hazmat suits disinfected the iconic christ the redeemer statue. they sprayed disinfectant on every possible surface area around the base of the statue in preparation for its reopening to the public saturday. they are preparing for tourism resumels -- what to officials hope -- 14,295 with 195 610 people currently testing positive. global news 24 hours a day on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

init is going to be later 2021 than we originally thought. i believe a combination of a vaccine, better therapeutic, i still expect leisure demand toween the u.s. and europe recover in 2021. people have been putting off trips they want to take. timing is quite good, i die think for some people lying on a smaller airplane with less

people is going to be a benefit. inhink we will be flying 2021. what jetblue has done in the u.s. is been a leader in safety. we are still blocking middle seats, doing it through october 15, going through enhanced cleaning procedures, trying the to sterilize the airplanes. as we start flying to europe, those things will continue. >> have got on a jetblue airplane by this time this next year? >> i don't want to put an exact date on that, because we don't have the airplane yet. my expectation is some point in quarter three. be ame point, that would reasonable thing to expect. romaine: the ceo of jetblue

speaking exclusively with guy johnson earlier today. let's talk about gold. caroline came in with a donut that was sprinkled with gold flakes. 1950.rices, around this after the record last week, back to back aims. the big question is, will it climb or pullback? -- pull back? when you look at this run-up we saw over the past few months, a lot of it is tied to a lower rate environment, lower inflation environment, lower dollar environment. there seems to be some concerns the catalysts may move in the opposite direction, and i am wondering if you are maintaining a general outlook of gold going higher or at least maintain levels it is already at? abovewe look at the rally

$2000, the position yesterday to become sloppy. we saw that technically prices were overbought and there is more week positioning with gold in the last leg higher. the fundamental drivers of a negative real yields. we think it will continue to remain favorable for gold. you saw dollar weakness pushing gold higher. then we saw prices outpace the gains. the moves in real yield an dollar. at that and it looked like the positioning was overextended. it is healthy for the long-term trend. profitrices may suffer taking, we think the longer term trend is upwards. three key factors we are keeping and i on at the moment, the real yields are many negative, dollar weakness, the concerns inflation may build around the packages,

but the fact that etf flows are strong as well. romaine promises me a silver spring will declare tomorrow. eclair tomorrow. up 7% today, the movement is so significant. is there more underlying the industrial effect that helped silver go higher, or is it a play on catching up to gold? it is falsement upside momentum we are seeing in gold. and we have seen investments, the etf flows over 8000. that is double what we saw in 2009. it is investment driven, it is the same macro drivers that are courting a catch-up play.

fundamentally it is not as weak as it had been at the start of the year. industrial demand is weaker, but perhaps more importantly the .upplier is quite fragile covid-19 has had an impact on demand side and supply side. we have seen it closed down, operating at reduced capacity which has meant the fundamentals are more supportive, but silver prices are not fundamentally supported. taylor: talk to me about the idea of the stored value of gold. people say it is a hedge on inflation, yet i believe on inflation adjusted at face this -- adjusted basis, it is outperforming the s&p 500. is it a hedge, is it an appropriate stored value? where does it fit? the longer-term driver is

real yield. if you look at -- they are fickle, they change whether it is the dollar, inflation expectations. when it comes to inflation, it is times of high and unexpected inflation -- at the moment we are seeing them tick higher but they are still quite low and relatively low woman look at the past 10 years. inflation levels at the moment and expectations are not high supporting at the elevated levels. we are seeing investors are starting to turn to gold as a diversifier for portfolios, looking at it as a potential hedge. while we don't see inflation as a key driver, it could be a long-term allegation. there has been speculation a lot of the gold -- and we will are

flexibly looking for moving to cash and they use gold to sort to do that. i am wondering if you have any evidence that negates whether that would -- should people get more bullish -- >> that is a great dynamic to be looking at. if you look at this, the correlation -- we saw that meeting up to the world health organization, we saw gold prices and equity theyts outperforming, then came under significant pressure. there was some allocation in gold where investors are becoming concerned about the lofty measures and agree markets, and they were using gold to diversify. perhaps a similar dynamic now, there is a disconnect between equity valuations and what the economic data is telling us. there could be positioning in gold that suggests we have

correction, it will suffer in the gold market. if there are liquidity needs, investors can turn to gold as it joined the march selloff. caroline: thank you so much. cooper from standard chartered bank. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we saw a little bit of a slowdown in the ipo markets when the pandemic first hit in early march. even through that time as an organization, we were selected for 12 out of the 14 ipo's listed at that time. it is interesting companies are coming to the market now. there is a lot of appetite right now. [indiscernible] romaine: even the complicated ones, today marking the largest [indiscernible]

a direct listing. joining us right now on the state of the fundraising market is bloomberg -- caroline: i think his microphone is dying. talk to us, why are the chinese companies listing? >> it is a huge threat of delisting, but at the same time there is demand and varathan -- demand from american investors. the chinese technology firms for them are as significant as the u.s. technology firms on this listing. goldman sachs, j.p. morgan and mayor the -- and morgan stanley have been part of this. they think it is just a threat, something that is a bargaining chip and not something they see as an immediate threat. taylor: pelletier, another one

looking at a direct listing. what do we know? >> all of the ipo's we are watching, pelletier and airbnb are the most talked about, everyone is falling on themselves to get on those deals. we expected them to be potential models for those companies, now we have news pelletier is looking forward to doing this. they pull it off, it would be the third major firm to do this, and it would solidify the model. romaine: we have breaking news crossing the wire on softbank, injecting $1.1 billion into wework area this is according to a staff memo obtained by bloomberg news. injection.n speaking of ipo's, it was supposed to be the mother of all unicorn ipo's, and that got

derailed. >> check out the timing. qe baker, who went public today, softbank was a big part of that listing as well. right after that to have we work need this additional liquidity injection, member they have a tumultuous year -- remember they have had in tumultuous year. romaine: is a doughnut and an eclair the same thing? >> i don't think so. caroline: it it is a pastry. taylor: romaine has negative points. caroline: his microphone died long ago to all of us. romaine: they cut it off. romaine:caroline: thank you for weighing in on the all important questions and a bit of ipo. that is all for what did you miss. taylor: bloomberg technology is up next. romaine: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪

emily: welcome to "bloomberg technology." i am emily chang in san francisco. stocks pulling back from record highs with congress still it is still made over a relief package. we're standing by for a briefing at the white house. the president expected to take the podium about 15 minutes from now. we will take you there when it happens. jobless claims dropped below one million for the first time in