from the real economy. >> we are printing money in the u.s., but we haven't really seen that velocity of money into the system yet. >> every minute that goes by is compounding the losses. >> when you look at it, there's only so far that the market itself can go without the stimulus. >> the only thing that voters really care about right now is the coronavirus and the economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. the bond supply and a little bit of fatigue given the bond market jitters in the last couple of hours. tom: 30 year treasuries --lisa: 30 year treasuries did not get received that well, which led to a bit of a selloff in stocks. i think that is really

interesting. i think probably a little too early to worry, given where the 10 year's right now. lisa: never too early to worry. jonathan: the hyatt is about 90 basis points. we are in the middle. there's a little bit of concern about oversupply, particularly at the long end, but two governments issued long-term hours. the last few the other was apple and president tim cook. [laughter] it is the 40 year portion that i think is getting the attention. it is about the duration risk people are willing to take. lisa: people are saying that perhaps demand for that offering took away from the u.s. government. you do have to wonder, and i think this is a question a growing number of strategists are asking him selves, at what point does the fed start to get

worried, step in and say we have to up our purchases of treasuries in order to suppress bond yields? ,onathan: ppi came in hotter jobless claims came in better than expected. we round things out this morning with u.s. retail sales. i've got to say, the month of august is a fascinating case study. not the case study anyone wants to see happen, but one we are going to have. the president has come out with an executive order. for cash won't hit probably a few more weeks, so we could go a whole month without those enhanced unemployment benefits, and we are about to see what that means for the economy. lisa: this may be the last increase, the last gain in retail sales for the july reading we get just because of what you are saying, as we may get a runoff of some of those extra job with benefits that may affect and simmer spending. i am interested to see how sentiment has changed in light

of some of the challenges and through -- challenges getting through. hot :00 p.m., president trump will be speaking, setting a tone heading into this week's negotiations. how much is he going to double issue? the tiktok/wechat this could perhaps bleed into markets if they take this seriously. jonathan: we had "the wall street journal" reporting that they got on the phone, the c-suite in america, to the administration and warned them about what they were doing in the next month with some of these chinese tech companies, and what it could mean for them and their ability to compete with big tech in china. the c-suite only cares because it matters to their bottom line. how the administration responds is going to be really interesting. we will find out this weekend.

i think we don't have a date or time for these talks, but they are going to look at the progress of a phase one trade agreement. the chinese reportedly also want to involve a conversation around chinese tech. let's see what this administration has got to say. lisa: to be clear, there's bipartisan agreement that there are security concerns with some of these tech companies. the question is the way that the trump administration is going about it, and how they can inflict pain, or at least punished china for some of their policies without punishing u.s. companies. not very clear right now. jonathan: let's get to the price action of this morning. on this friday morning, equity futures lower, coming down eight coins -- down eight points. -0.25% on the s&p 500. euro-dollar back to $1.1812. levelget back to $1.19, a we have seen in the past couple of weeks. on the 10 year, 0.69%.

we come in just a couple of basis points. for the federal reserve, that is where the focus is. the fiscal package stalling down in washington. what does it mean for monetary policy, and perhaps more importantly, what does the handling of the pandemic in the united states mean for fed officials? this is what boston fed president eric rosen had to say -- eric rosengren had to say. >> i think it will be an important time to have forward -- forward guidance. i think at this stage, forward guidance is only mildly help. interest rates are quite low, and in that environment, i think are already assuming it is going to be quite some time before interest rates rise again. so while it might be marginally helpful, i would actually say that our lending solidity's and some of the facilities being run by the new york fed are probably providing more support because

they are getting at the costs to businesses and individuals that i think are more important for with the economy will be. michael: chairman powell emphasizes that the fed can lend , not spend. is that the wrong prescription for the economy right now? our willingness to buy corporate securities quickly pushed those interest rates down, and we didn't need to buy very much because market reacted to our announcement. i would say that credit conditions are much better than they were in march or april because of the federal reserve's actions, and i think that has been an important stimulus to the economy. in terms of spending, that has to come from fiscal policy. the u.s. economy also benefited from the kind of very quick and stimulusificant provided by having broader on

them limit benefits, checks for low income individuals. all of those things have been very helpful in preventing particularly low income not making from spending decisions into the summer. those programs ended as of july. the pandemic has not ended. the unemployment rate is still above 10%. so we need stimulative fiscal policy to continue. i think it is critically important that congress come up with some sort of agreement. michael: have you modeled the impact from the end of that fiscal stimulus? my personaln: forecast is that some form of additional stimulus is going to occur. it would definitely be bad news for my forecast and for the economy if we don't do any additional stimulus. michael: you supervise the main street program, perhaps the most controversial. according to your figures, 850

$6 million in loans in the system, but it is a program that could do $600 billion in loan. does that suggest modifications need to be made? mr. rosengren: we have already made quite a few modifications. we came out with a revised term sheet, and then it was revised once again to make the program broader and more accessible to a wider range of small businesses. we've also opened it up to the nonprofit sector. banks are perfectly able to start their negotiations with the nonprofits. w, it takes a long time to negotiate a bank loan, so it doesn't surprise me that it would start gradual and pick up over time. i think that is exactly what we are seeing. one reason we are seeing a lot of the lending come from midsized banks is they are probably a bit more flexible and able to act more quickly. i would expect that larger banks overtime start using the

facility more. those that have had their cash tow disrupted and are likely be fine after the pandemic is over will be able to get that financing, and i think we are seeing a pickup in that activity. i expect as borrowers and banks get more familiar with the program, we will continue to see increases. jonathan: boston fed president eric rosengren there. joining us now is michael mckee, who conducted that interview. fantastic work as always. given what is happening in d.c., how much pressure is the fomc under? michael: there is pressure, but there isn't much they can do about it. i think you will hear more and more, especially around the jackson hole conference coming up, that they can't do very much at this point. the impetus has to come from washington.

the interesting thing will be the september meeting, whether they change the forward guidance. a lot of wall street has been betting on that. we heard from rosengren, and we heard from bailey daily -- from mary daly of san francisco. they may not do a whole lot at the september meeting. billion ofd $112 longer-term u.s. treasuries sold this week, a record. a little bit of indigestion showing. what is the threshold for the federal reserve two entries urges is -- increase purchases of longer dated bonds? michael: they would like to wait on that until the economy could use some additional stimulus, putting more into the economy through the financial channel. we saw with qe that that has an announcement effect, but doesn't have a really long term effect. as long as the markets are functioning and in general have been going up, there isn't a lot the fed can do to help people out. jonathan: stay close.

we will have the retail sales report this morning. coming up on the program, rory greene of ts lombard going into the weekend. a weekend of talks on deck. in the bond market, and the equity market, we shape up as follows. equity futures down around eight points on the s&p 500, -0.2%. in the bond market, a snooze after a five-day selloff. yields settling at around 0.7% on the u.s. ten-year. yields down to basis points on the session. in foreign-exchange, euro-dollar $1.1809. are cracks emerging in the european story? it's been an interesting week. the pandemic story going in the wrong direction in places like france, germany. much more on that still to come on this program. for our audience worldwide come alive on bloomberg radio and tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance ."

the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump hasn't yet delivered to the deal of the century he promised in the middle east. still, he can claim foreign-policy victory after israel and the united arab emirates agreed to move towards normalizing relations. even democratic presidential candidate joe biden called it a historic step. a roadblock is preventing congress from passing a new coronavirus early plan -- new coronavirus relief plan. republicans argue the money would go to bailouts for mismanaged states. nothing is likely to happen the next two weeks, when both parties hold their conventions. the democratic presidential candidate said every governor should require masks for the next few months to save more than 40,000 lives. president trump rejected biden's

approach. he said, "we want to have a certain freedom." some british vacationers will be unable to go back to work when they get back from their holidays. meanwhile, prime minister boris johnson warns that fines will be increased for people who break social distancing restrictions. in china, the economy continues to bounce back. industrial growth remained steady, rising 4.8% from a year earlier. still, output and retail sales haven't reached last year's levels. gold is headed for its first weekly loss in more than two months. buffeted. being it has been down more than $100 an ounce from last week's record. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

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>> perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gave a damn. that is the case. so this it -- that isn't the

case. so unless they see the reality of what it means in the lives of the american people, what good is it for us to agree to something that has no relationship to meeting the needs of the american people? jonathan: that's one view from house speaker nancy pelosi. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back with us on monday. here's your price action this friday morning, around 72 minutes away from retail sales in america, and after that you get the opening bell. down about seven, eight points on the s&p 500. euro-dollar doing a whole lot of nothing, $1.1811. inthe 10 year, yields come two basis points around 0.7%. can you imagine if i stepped i'llfrom the mic and said

come back in 24 hours with breaking news? lisa: this is going to be breaking news, that until there is an agreement in washington, d.c., there will just be an anti-screen where jon is. jonathan: some people might be happy about that. i don't know if kevin is. kevin cirilli joins us now, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. i get it, but the optics don't look good, do they? kevin: i think for the rank-and-file members, they are going to be listening to constituents in terms of their frustration. senate majority leader mitch senatell adjourning the till september 8. they continue with this political game of chicken. i am told by sources at the white house that president trump still considering additional, additional executive orders. what specific actions he would be able to take is unknown.

, thea political standpoint president's pull numbers of stabilized nationally against democratic presidential nominee joe biden. he is still trailing significantly, but from that argument, they feel that him being able to take aggressive action through the use of executive orders, coupled with daily press briefings, have done the trick on that. we will have to wait and see whether or not the polls change in some swing states. but they feel like they are in a better position that i'm about half ago. thethan: i've lost count amount of times people have said the president's tone has changed. but there was an interesting moment in the news conference yesterday when anna porter -- when a reporter accused o -- when a reporter accused him of being a liar. like youf engaging him would expect, he moved on. he's put these pressers back on the schedule. do you think they are having the

desired impact? kevin: from the sources i speak with, they are satisfied with how the press conferences have been going. i think that surprises citizen donald trump who frequently spoke with embers of the media in new york city when he was a businessman, when he was unveiling instruction projects. you think back to some of his more private citizen struggles publicly. this is also a tactic he'd applied in that time. talking it to death, keep going, and continue to talk about it. the president has utilized attacking the media as a tool to bulldoze through, but contrast that with the strategy that the biden campaign is taking with not talking to the media, and it is two very different strategies. right now you got a front runner in joe biden, saying he's going to keep it very close to vest and talk only in very specific terms and moments, and then you've got the president saying

he is going to talk nonstop. you saw in the past month and a half how his phone numbers have somewhat stabilized -- is pull numbers have somewhat stabilized. lisa: it does seem to be a little bit of a shift in tone, but he wasn't more combative. jonathan: it might change in a couple of hours. lisa: 1000%. [laughter] but the fact that he didn't engage and make it a sort of combative moment was a notable shift. i want to talk about the sticking points within the deal that has been discussed, but is no longer because everyone is on vacation and washing. the idea that you have -- vacation in washington. the idea that you have funding for states and municipalities seems to be combative. and then you have funding for the u.s. postal service. kevin: domestically, that was the talk of the town yesterday in terms of how the president has said he wants to withhold funding for the u.s. postal service, and saying indirect terms to fox news that he wants to do that because he feels that they would only utilize the

funding to provide for mail-in ballots and mail-in voting. this has really become, as we have been talking about for several's, a really core issue heading into november 3. from an uncertainty perspective, the increase in mail-in voting across the country, which is really a patchwork of promoteons, by the way -- by the way. even if there is a 10% increase in a state for mail-in ballots, and they are postmarked on election day, we might not have the results until a couple of after, a week or so until those official results are certified. what is that matter? traditionally, the way that americans of cotton their news on election night -- you know, when i was growing up, you would stay up late, watch the results. you would see who one. it could be gone. because for these

states to certify their election results, especially if it is a close electoral count, we could be in this for the long haul. lisa: if tom were here and he heard you say when i was growing up, he would let that window. kevin: but he's not here, so i had to slip it in. [laughter] lisa: i do wonder how real the threat is that there could be funding deprived from the united states postal service, and after the election, there could be challenges to the result saying there wasn't a competent postal service to deliver the mail well enough to make the selection valid -- to make this election valid. kevin: here's what i can tell you. for nonpartisan legal scholars, they note that democrats and republicans have battled it out in courts for quite some time in terms of election results. there are cases in pennsylvania we can draw from area there are cases in florida we can all draw from, most notably in 2000 in

bush v gore that made its way to the super court. and look no further than recent elections. iowa,t what happened in for example. in the process of the coronavirus, certain states had to grapple with whether or not to hold primaries. there is the judicial institutions in this country that have a her work to work from -- have a framework to work from, and they will make their way through the courts. jonathan: would do the talks between the u.s. and china this weekend? kevin: they do want to bring up the issue with the apps, with tencent and wechat. another big story yesterday was the uae and israel normalization of relations. jonathan: just to make the producers sweat, to take the clock a little but closer. great to catch up. coming up on this program on china, rory greene of ts

lombard. on the economic data overnight, retail sales not great. what's going on in consumption in the world's second largest economy? coming up right here on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ experience the ultimate sports hub.

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♪ jonathan: equity futures recovering. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene is back on monday. off the lows, negative five points on the s&p. we are down a little more than 0.1%. we are up on the week coming into friday, and just a couple of inches away from all-time highs. euro-dollar doing a whole lot of nothing, $1.1813. what a repricing we have had on the 10 year yield over the past week. last tuesday we closed at about points,s all-time low. right now, 0.7%. let's get to the economic data.

about an hour from now, we will have u.s. retail sales. we've already seen the data out of china. bloomberg'sring in chief asia correspondent in the current -- correspondent enda curran. enda: china's recovery is doing sales isut the retail the real trouble. they started at 1.1% in july. but the thing is the high-frequency indicators are pointing to domestic travel getting back to where it was, or talking about hotel vacancies getting back, cinemas starting to be open again. the virus has started to be under control, so economists are little troubled about what is keeping the consumer back. one theory might be that the sales and price cuts are depressing the overall nominal value. but when you look at the it in

intaurants and -- the dip restaurants and catering demands, people are still nervous about getting out. jonathan: it is much easier to switch factories back on then it is to switch consumption back on. is that what you think we are finding out here? enda: exactly right. the supply versus demand story has been playing out in china. the factories are switched on, and they benefited from the reopening early around the rest of the world. that is why we have seen a big surgeon china -- a big surge in china. ateau?s that pl when does that -- that plateau? that is the kind of narrative that came out of china today. the recovery is on track, but perhaps going sideways a

little bit. lisa: i am wondering if you could pair the economic data, the idea that there is a recovery that does appear to be stronger than the u.s. and europe, with the popularity of xi jinping. has he been viewed as doing a good job in handling this virus? enda: at the start, there was significant unhappiness. it is all difficult to gauge exactly. social media was certainly sour towards government. since then, again, there's no perfect gauge for sentiment in china, but markets are stabilized, the economy has stabilized and is recovering. i think for china, more of the pressure is coming on the external front, both in terms of relations with the u.s., like the trade and technology issues, and geopolitical issues with the u.s. and others. so i think the domestic story,

notwithstanding an image remains high, seems to be -- notwithstanding unemployment remains high, seems to be stable. lisa: this is the narrative underpinning the new approach that xi jinping and the people's bank of china have put out there, the idea that they want to rely more on the domestic consumer rather than on exports one forward. this is more similar to the u.s. economy. what steps are they taking to do that? how realistic is that push? enda: this is a big concept that has kind of been floated in the past few weeks. say, getly, like you the home demand driving the economy much more so than relying on demand overseas. the consumer is a much bigger -- diver ofpe growth. china already has national champions. it is pursuing a strategy of

independence in areas of technology, for example. that china is certainly under pressure of iting some of its technology has through companies shifting their supply chains. we already have a major chipmaker moving. really important conversations, as always. thanks for staying up late for us over there. in the current -- enda curran and hong kong. the chinese communist party want to put the situation with big tech on the table as well. what i find interesting over the last 24 hours is that effectively, c-suite america is doing some of the lobbying for the chinese government by getting on the phone to the ministries in and saying, don't

do this. it will hurt us, too. lisa: they are not necessarily saying that there are no national security concerns. what you're saying is you are not going to do it right because you are going to hurt us more than you her china. look at apple. about 1/5 of their revenue comes from china, and chinese consumers are more willing to get up their iphones than -- willing to give up their iphones wechat.e up jonathan: i am not saying they are paid lobbyists, lisa. [laughter] just effectively doing some other work for the party. lisa: perhaps. or perhaps it is just a matter of how you do this. i think that has got to be where the focus is because this is going to be an approach that both the democrats and republicans are going to take. so it is just a matter of philosophy behind tactics. jonathan: joining us on this is roy green, ts lombard china and south korea economist.

let's start on the economy. we've talked so much about the ecb, the federal reserve, stimulus down in washington, across europe as well. we've heard very little out of china. what is going on on that front. been at's actually really important policy change from the pboc in the last week. they had been on a fairly active easing trajectory, and because of the strength of the chinese recovery, they have switched their easing stance. but are stilled easing, much less broad-based than it was a few weeks ago. crucially, they removed the wording in their monetary policy report saying that they would have significantly higher credit growth this year. that has now been dropped. so it is likely we see the broadest measure of credit creation in china start probably from august onwards.

lisa: there was a focus on the economy first and foremost, both in china with the credit creation, as well as in the united states when it came to trade negotiations. heading into the talks the begin saturday between the u.s. and china, is there that same economic put? in other words, are both nations going to put economic concerns first for dealing with some of these other issues, national security and otherwise? rory: i think on the trade front, they appear to be happy with how things are progressing. they like the idea that, at least trade relations have stabilized, whether on tech, finance, human rights. we have reached a bottom, so beijing is pretty happy to continue buying soybeans, and on the u.s. side, i think they will ,eep a focus on the economics particularly heading into the key harvest season before

elections. fairly it will remain stable, but tech and finance are set to deteriorate from here on out. lisa: i was looking at the official data out of china. the unemployment rate, 5.7%. what is the real unemployment rate? rory: is going to be close to 10%. the urban survey done and limit rate is what we get from the nbs, the official data provider. it doesn't take into account a lot of the migrant workers, the people that would have gone home to their rural hometowns. so when there is an economic shock, people just retire to the till their own land in their villages, so those numbers really do understate. jonathan: in the united states, if unemployment is too high, you lose an election.

in china, they believe it is an existential risk for the whole system. on the political front, i wonder whether this leader embraces nationalism even more given what is happening in the economy. rory: that is always the risk. at the moment, the economic recovery is progressing well enough, and there are still a few more stimulus levers they can pull. quickly reduce that unemployment number. going forward, we are looking at structurally lower growth from china. it is going to be very tempting for the chinese leaders to retire towards nationalism over the economy and flows on return. jonathan: thank you for joining. really good to see you.

a headline just crossing the bloomberg, maryland to adopt mail-in voting. this comes after president trump thatnts to foxbusiness, you can't have universal mail-in voting. this is a funding debate around the general election coming up in november, and the president very candid about what he things about it in the last 14 hours -- last 24 hours. lisa: you see in options trading, people are hurting for not getting election result. some people say and perhaps an election result in its own right is a positive for markets. the worst case an area is just complete unknown. jonathan:jonathan: the senate going on because. the senatejonathan: going on because. check out the equity market.

the situation in europe much worse. the dax is down by around 0.9%. cac 40 in paris is down by 1.71%. are we starting to see some cracks in the european story? that conversation is next with david riley of bluebay asset management. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. in the coming week, president trump plans a white house signing ceremony to celebrate his biggest foreign policy achievement. israel and the united arab emirates reached a landmark agreement that was announced by their presidents. to hold offsed annexing west bank territory. the uae will become only the third arab territory to have double medic ties with israel. even with a vaccine, the battle against the coronavirus is likely to be a challenge for years to come. that is according to

pharmaceutical and public health experts. they say a vaccine will provide some measure of protection. still, they expect the virus flareup from time to time, just like the flu. yale university said it is dismayed that the justice department ruled that it discriminates against asian americans and whites in admissions. made thisities determination, threatening to sue yale unless it changes its process immediately. hong kong media time kuhn jimmy lai-- media tycoon jimmy accuses the government of arresting him on trumped up charges. it falls under the new sweeping national security changes. it is presumed that i'm guilty. this is the way the law is.

i should be presumed innocent. say is we have never supported independence of hong kong.

>> make no mistake, this is an economy that really relies on these fiscal transfers. if these transfers are going to be reduced through the end of the year, it is going to be

extremely difficult to see any further gains. jonathan: john normand of jp morgan there. the economic data so far resilient for the u.s. economy. the equity market, take a look for yourself. equity futures unchanged on the s&p 500 now after a brief dip about an hour ago. euro-dollar, $1.1815. in the bond market, 0.7% on the 10 year. a resilient equity market, and so far with the economic data, a resilient economy as well. lisa: resilient in that it isn't quite as bad as people were expecting, and how quickly it is coming back. the argument for stocks right now that we have been hearing is it is momentum, and why fight momentum? why fight the fed? but don't come up with a fundamental reason for it because that doesn't seem to be what anyone is looking at. jonathan: you did the right

thing to finesse what i am looking at. i don't think jobless claims around one million is a sign of good things. but this economy is holding up much deeper into the summer than some people inspected. europe is the one that gets my attention. so money people have come of this program and the >> couple of weeks -- program in the last couple of weeks talking up europe and talking down the u.s. economy. things have just started to break down a little bit. let's bring in david riley, bluebay asset management chief investment strategist. is the european story facing a little bit of a challenge at the moment? lisa: --david: i thicket is. -- i thinkhink it is it is. front, evenpolicy though the fed kind of got ahead of the game on fiscal policy, we

had the eu recovery fund, why we saw a stalemate in washington. it's been part of this story of stronger euro, to some extent a sort of rotation from growth to value, and valuation opportunities within europe. but that narrative is getting challenged because cases in the u.s. and infection rates are actually declining, although still worryingly high. we are seeing a peak in infection rates across several countries in europe, and it is going to be hard as well for europe to sort of outperform and sustain a strong recovery because it is so dependent on global growth and global trade. jonathan: for me, there's two issues. there's redenomination risk, which arguably has diminished a whole lot because of that fiscal agreement in the last month, just the probability that the euro zone goes down somewhat, and then there is repricing the recovery. for a relative trade right now,

what is more compelling? the united states trying to correct course, or europe facing some trouble? certainly from a relative value and credit perspective, i actually quite like part of the best credit market. this.y be surprised by lisa: i am. jonathan: that is what every credit investor has to come on this show and say lisa is not going to let this. [laughter] in 2017, the european high-yield market was yielding around 2.3%. high-yield can become a bit of a misnomer. i do think that you need to move

, but ie credit spectrum think there is value in the single b names, even some of the ccc's as well. u.s. high-yield on a beta adjusted basis, we would have expected it to perform relative to either the russell or the s&p 500, it has actually lagged equities. when you've got the treasuries where they are, i know this is a very familiar story, you are seeing some value there. more the as well, issue is just, as you said, that sort of account risk has diminished. so you like the periphery, but the spreads have come a long way, reducing some of the risk that we have there as well. lisa: i would hate to disappoint with my reputation, and for you saying that you are buying single b and ccc rated credit,

the lowest rated of high-yield debt at a time of growing bankruptcies, how do you gauge the insolvency risk with this idea that you are searching for yield, but it still is lower than it perhaps would be if you didn't have a fed put? david: that's absolutely correct. first, in terms of the bankruptcy and default risk, i think the market right now is pricing the u.s. high-yield 9%,ults will peak at around 10% at the end of the year. i thing that is probably about right. in the longer sort of commentary around the pricing within the credit market, the reality is that credit has become quite bifurcated. look at the proportion of companies and credits pricing at the stress levels. those also yielding 10%.

i think we know who the default candidates are. i don't think we are going to get a negative surprise, unless of course the recovery stalls, and that could happen if we don't get a deal out of washington on the fiscal side. i think for the market to rally further, i think there's going to have to be some compression. so single b's have got room to move higher. we are trying to, as credit so if there's and investors -- credit selectors and investors, go into those single be names which have less exposure, and we think the overall business model is going to be viable in this post covid world. jonathan: david riley, good to catch up with you. what a reputation, seriously. [laughter] someone in credit investment can come on the program and say, lisa is not going to like this. lisa: it is not about liking it.

it is challenging this idea at a time when the passes -- a time of the fastest bankruptcy pace on record. it is the stock market being divorced from the fundament to economy. it is important to keep asking, are people getting the right kind of returns for their risk? are they getting compensated for it? if not, where are the losses going to be felt? it will be felt after recoveries are much lower and losses are much higher. jonathan: i totally get your point. i am just winding you up a bit. lisa: and you did successfully. [laughter] jonathan: what is the right return in 2020 and beyond? lisa: lower. that's what people are saying. the right return is lower. the issue is if you are going into these junk bonds, you might not be getting a recovery if there is insolvency. jonathan: lisa abramowicz, not

with a trade, but with a view. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " ♪ you doing okay?

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>> the market is totally divided from the real economy. >> yes we are printing money in the u.s., but we haven't really seen that velocity of money into the system yet. >> every minute that goes by is compounding the losses. >> when you look at it, there's only so far that the market itself can go without this stimulus. >> the only thing boaters really care about right now is the coronavirus and the economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance"