>> the market is totally divided from the real economy. >> yes we are printing money in the u.s., but we haven't really seen that velocity of money into the system yet. >> every minute that goes by is compounding the losses. >> when you look at it, there's only so far that the market itself can go without this stimulus. >> the only thing boaters really care about right now is the coronavirus and the economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg tv and radio.

alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene back on monday. the equity market unchanged right now on equity futures. it is the bond market tickets your attention. the worst week for 10 year treasuries going back to june. lisa: very low rates, but it seems like there's at least a little bit of a concern creeping in about the record bond issuance from the u.s. government. the question is whether this is a momentary blip. today, people seem to be treating it as a buying opportunity. jonathan: so far, so good this week in terms of expectations. claimed yesterday, positive relative to expert patients. cpi hotter, ppi hotter than expected as well. perhaps fueling that moving treasuries and not just the supply story. lisa: we've had this conversation over and over again, the idea of lagging indicators. in a fast-moving pandemic where you get states re-shutting down and people losing

confidence, and people are looking to the july sales data shown the last retail sales gain before unemployment runs out. jonathan: dan alpert came on this program earlier this week and said that the survey a week earlier, a week later can be the plusrence in -one million, one million in the payrolls report. lisa: i'm not sure stock investors are really using the economic data to get a sense of how to invest anyway, the. oh.than: lisa: i mean, come on. we get a bad print, what does that mean? we get a good print, what does that mean? the data has not been translating into market responses, whether in credit or in equity. there's faith in a backstop somewhere. jonathan:jonathan: what is that phrase about poking the bear? lisa: you poked the bear.

you have. jonathan: we shape up as follows in the equity market. equity futures come down three, -0.1%. remember february 19, when we were talking about a different v-shaped recovery? it was all about how china would come back online quickly. the rest of the world would be ok. it is very different to the v people are discussed in august. yield on the 10 year. below is 50, the high as 90. euro-dollar, $1.1808. going us now is david bailin, citigroup chief investment officer. the economic data is really not great, but the performance of the market has been some thing else. what is your take away? david: let's put everything in a little bit of context.

we have $18 trillion worth of debt that yields zero, so everyone is seeking yield. this has been an extraordinary rally in the bond market, so that is the backdrop. when we take a look at equities and everyone looked at the indices, the indices are incredibly high and overvalued, but you have to look into what the indices are. you have market leaners that have been beneficiaries, especially tech, that have benefited as a result of the pandemic. secondly, when we really look at the consumer data, it has been remarkable he resilient in those areas where covid has not been a big deal. if you take out travel, take out retail, take out hotels, take out educational institutions and small health care providers, about 11% of the economy, the rest of the economy has been were markedly resilient. you would have thought, taking a look at the data in florida, texas, california, and south carolina that people would have

started to travel less. that people would go back home and not spin. -- not spend. the exact opposite has been the case. the consumer has continued to buy, despite the fact that the virus is all around us. that has been the surprising event for me. jonathan: the enhanced unemployment benefits have expired. do you think that is going to be an important force to shape the august data, or will it be more about what you just discussed? david: i think august will be mild. if we see that congress does not pass anything, you could see further headwind from all of this. we look at the last 40 years of these congressional standoffs, and we found that there is always a compromise, at least historically. we've never been in exactly this situation. so if we get a compromise in september, i don't think we have anything to worry about in august. if we got no action on the part of congress, that would be a pretty big deal. lisa: this is what the market is betting on, that there will be

reason that eventually sets in in washington, d.c. how much has the fiscal support backstopped the recovery? first of all, i'm not an angry bear, jon. i am just struggling to understand the dire economics -- jonathan: for people on radio who can't see david bailin's face right now, david doesn't believe you. but carry on. lisa: the idea that you could have such a high-end and plummet rate and such steady data, why is there this dissidents -- this dissidents -- high unemployment rate and such steady data, why dissonance?is we havehe other thing to look at is really what happened to earnings. they were better-than-expected as well. the market is officially pricing the winners and the losers at the moment.

all we have to do is look out six months and ask ourselves, what will happen when a good vaccine that really works, not the russian version, actually comes out with proper testing and we know that there is going to be an effective treatment what there is for the flu or this pandemic? i think that is gone to change everyone's mindset. you said something in the last segment prior to the top of the hour that is very important. you talk about the velocity of money. that velocity takes time. we've never had this kind of spending before, $10 trillion to $12 trillion globally. that is going to add a tailwind to the market, and a tailwind that is going to be very stimulative, as we have written to all of our clients in the last several weeks. it will be the velocity of money going forward. if you combine those factors come of this market for equities is not insane. you also said something i wanted to touch upon, the fact that

return expectations should be modest, and you are exactly right. but there are parts of the market that are going to roar ahead in the future, and parts like technology that are going to move very modestly because they are so fully priced and discounted so much already today. lisa: let's unpack a little bit of it when it comes to velocity of money. are you pricking that inflation is going to pick up? david: it could pick up a very small amount. what we are matching a major call on his recovery in the economy that is greater than people inspect. in europe, where everyone is very tentative, we think next year will be a 4% gdp, and we haven't had one of those in a decade. we also feel like the chinese economy and the pain asian economies can do better-than-expected because of the tremendous impact on those economies by the virus, and the fact that exports are going to pick up much more than i think is projected in 22 anyone -- in 2021. jonathan: i hear a long on

banks, and i just heard a long on industrials. is that right? david: i like the long on banks. up economy is going to pick and change expectations slightly going forward. if you take a look at dividend yields for banks, you would think they are very attractive today and will stay attractive, and there will be appreciation if that is right. plus, there's been limited credit losses because of programs in the united states in particular. in terms of industrials, the larger ones are pretty fully priced right now, but a lot of the small and medium caps are 20% to 30% lower. they had 70% negative earnings surprises in the second quarter, which is pretty abysmal. so there's a fair amount of snapback in the small and medium-sized companies in the u.s. and in europe. jonathan: just before we let you go, the regional bias. he mentioned europe a few times. we've had this conversation about the european trade facing some challenges in the last couple of days.

what is the regional bias for you? david: to me, the last couple of days are creating a little bit of buying opportunity. i think we have to see real data. the market is very focused on what is happening today. we are looking out six to 12 months in terms of our view, and 12 to 18 months for investing. we like europe on that basis, especially industrials that have dividends associated with it. we like some of the mortgage retailers for junk bonds. we like latin america is a snapback lay, specifically theco, as a result of when u.s. is fully operational, imports and exports from mexico will really go much higher. so there's a lot for investors to do, and i think it is moving their portfolios away from technology where they've had the sixth ordinary gain and into some of these other sectors that will allow them to make extra profits over the course of the next 12 to 18 months. jonathan: i like a lot of stuff lisa doesn't like either.

lisa: i don't know why you are trying to get me in trouble, but the. [laughter] -- but thank you. [laughter] jonathan: thank you, david. to guests in a row. not bad. lisa: someone on twitter putting out a picture of me as an and repair. -- as an angry bear. i just think it is fair to be skeptical. i'm not alone. if you take a look at how much money to banks have set aside for bad loans, you're getting an economy that is getting otherwise back on track? jonathan: i totally agree. there are 70 things -- there are so many things that just make sense. what i think is really interesting, just from a system sort of perspective, what this means about money that should flow away from bad companies and should flow towards good ones, what this means for potential growth in the future as well. i think those are all really valid points. when we are facing but we are facing right now, and rates

across the board are where they are, i think you are right to question it. lisa: and the some of the occasion -- and the zombificat ion of corporate america and around the world. jonathan: right here from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance." the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump hasn't yet delivered to the deal of the century he promised in the middle east. still, he can claim a foreign-policy victory after israel and the united arab emirates agreed to move towards normalizing relations. even democratic president of candidate joe biden called it a historic step. a roadblock is preventing congress from passing a new coronavirus early plan -- from passing a new coronavirus relief plan. republicans argue the money would go to bailout poorly

managed states. president trump clashed with joe biden over masks. the democratic residential said every governor should require masks the next three months. that would save more than 40,000 lives. president trump said, "we want to have a certain freedom. that's what we are about." when it comes to personal finances, donald trump is it better off than he was four years ago. according to the bloomberg billionaires index, the president's net worth has declined $300 million in the past year to $2.7 billion, the biggest drop since bloomberg began tracking his wealth back into any 15. it dark -- back in 2015. the pandemic made things worse. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

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jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio, around 12 minutes away

from the data and america, u.s. retail sales. the market open comes an hour later. equity futures down two on the s&p 500, down 0.1%. 0.7% is your yield on the 10 year. euro-dollar, $1.1815. hong kong media tycoon jimmy lai arrested last week under the new national security law, fueling concerns about how quickly china is tightening its grip. >> [indiscernible] nobody has given us any money. that's all i can tell you.

they will be low-profile in exit execution, but they have to in acted some people to sell to the hong kong people that they are very selective to the business community here and overseas. we can't confront the ccp. we can keep our spirits, but we have no other power than moral power. jonathan: jimmy lai there. pretty clear his thoughts on things, though conceding at the end, we have our spirit, and that is about it. lisa: one of the main points in this interview, it was surprising that beijing came after him this quickly after enacting the national security law. that they were sending a signal that was surprising to some as they'd expected beijing to hold off and wait for some of the sentiment to die down. jonathan: joining us now is greg chiefre, agf investments

u.s. policy strategist. i just wonder how hong kong is a part of the conversations over the trade agreement. how do you think this is going to come up? greg: the deep-freeze continues. i think relations will stay very hostile. this weekend stalks are on trade -- this weekend's talks are on trade, which continues. the detention of dissidents, the hacking, all of the things china has done i think will increase the likelihood of section. lisa: what do you think china's goal is going to be? greg: the goal is to show that u.s. farmers are still buying soybeans. i think the president wants to show that that part of the trade deal is working. but beyond that, i thing a real crisis looms on wechat more than tiktok. lisa: crisis for who? greg: for both countries. wechat is so widely used by the chinese, i think if we impose

sanctions, there will be counter sanctions. i think that these recriminations will certainly continue through the u.s. election. jonathan: isn't this the problem? that we talk a lot about reciprocity, but we are in this position where you can't shut wechat down, but you can tell facebook they can't be in china. how are we going to sort these problems out if that is the approach? greg: donald trump famously says i'm a tariff guy, and i think he's prepared to do that again. he did it with canada recently. western europe still faces threats, and i think china as well could get more tariffs. jonathan: this is the issue, that the approach of this administration, how do we change the chinese communist party behavior? that is essentially the question being asked in washington, d.c. for the last 20 years or so. what i see at the moment is every time the admin instruction tries to do something, the c-suite and america gets on the phone to the administration and says, don't do this because the

commercial power that china as an economy still has, i just wonder, if this president is not in the white house for a second term, is there a better way of dealing with this? greg: there's two things, the carrots and sticks. the carrot would be for joe biden to reenter the transpacific partnership. the stick is from congress, that could pass legislation to reward companies that bring jobs back to the u.s.. greg: is it -- lisa: is it in the u.s.'s interest to link some of these tech concerns with the trade issues? that is when china has been trying to do, and the u.s. has been pushing back. could the u.s. potentially benefit from liking these as well? greg: we could potentially, but i think right now there is a bipartisan view in washington that the chinese have been outrageous in their lack of

transparency on the virus, there hacking into all of our treatment ofeir dissidents. the mood is quite hostile. jonathan: both sides can't agree on a fiscal package. when do you see this happening? we came into august and everyone said this has to happen. here we are in the middle of august, and are we looking at september now? greg: i still think there is going to be a deal at some point. both sides need it. elosi needs to show that she is not just cynical about people suffering. both sides need to get one, but it is still probably two or three weeks away. jonathan: what would change your mind? what would be the big red flag where you say, maybe this isn't happening? greg: well, i think -- [no audio]

jonathan: it's gone from the start of the month to maybe the middle of the month, to now maybe the middle of september. lisa: there was a study done polling economists, and saying, what do you think the consequent as will be if there is no deal struck by at least september 1? they said the likelihood was that we see an increase in food insecurity, an increase in joblessness because a lack of consumer spending would slow the economy and hamper any kind of upswing in job rates. i am struggling to see where we see this priced in. how are people responding to this? we haven't gotten it.

jonathan: we are not seeing it right now at the aggregate level in the data or in the market. i know this sounds cynical, but when you look at the equity market and compare and contrast the situation now compared to where we were in march, this happens in history again and again in economic crises, and for that matter, foreign policy as well. when you exit the immediate crisis, the collective will fates. lisa: and to be fair, even companies have been surprised in their earnings reports at how strong the recovery has been, so perhaps the economy is doing better than people are expecting. i don't know. jonathan: we will see. we will bring you michael mckee on the data, and afterwards, michael gapen of barclays. all eyes on d.c. the retail sales five minutes away. we are -0.1% on the s&p 500. five days of losses on treasuries.

yields today just start to stabilize, down a basis point to 0.7%. a five-day day losing streak into friday. what happens after that retail sales print? that's next on bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: u.s. retail sales incoming from new york city. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." your economic data is about to drop across the bloomberg terminal. with that data is michael mckee. michael: we are looking for the retail sales numbers. the census bureau a little slower getting them out. we are now seeing retail sales are coming in worse than expected. up 1.2% in the month of july. the forecast was for a 2.1% gain. autos a little better than expected. range for the 7% june. the control group, this is the one economists watch, retail

sales control comes in better-than-expected at 1.4%, up on the month of july. that compares with the .8% forecast and 5.4% increase in june. it is not as good during the month of july as june. things have slowed down. this will be interesting. it is obviously distorted by who has been at work. 7.3% in the is up second quarter. unit labor costs up 12.2%. had lower people who paid people off the payroll increased the cost to businesses. take a look at what went up and down during the month. motor vehicles and parts dealers were down 1.2%, which is kind of a contrast with what was

expected because unit sales have come in strong. furniture and furniture stores were flat on the month. building materials down 2.9%. gasoline stations up 6.2%. gas prices had risen during the month. retail sales our calculator my dollar volume basis. sporting goods down 5%. up 5%.aces many thought we would see a drop because many had to re-close again. the only thing i can tell you is this survey is the advance survey for the month. it is calculated through the first half of july. next month, we will get revisions. we hope at that point we will see whether we did see an effect from the covid reappearance in so many states. jonathan: let me go through the

price action, about 57 minutes away from the opening bell. the retail sales numbers came out to saving them. then the control came out. treasury reels are back up. yield on the what isforeign-exchange the most important story for you orht now, numbers acceleration? thirdl: i would offer a category, with revisions to june. revised to 8.4%. the control group increased to 6%. period, we didh

see a significant rise in retail sales. we were down 14.7% in april, so making up some of the ground. it does suggest americans are willing to spend when they get a chance. jonathan: michael mckee, great to see you. just about positive on the s&p 500. joining us now is michael gapen. great to catch up with you. are we still working our way through these mechanical distortions coming from shutdown to reopen? michael: we are. i think that is a little in the rearview mirror now. michael mckee's point at the end is what was important. the downside in july likely related to the upward revisions in june. on net, my guess is when we look at the data, the level of retail sales in july will be about where we were expecting. things have slowed. in my view, that was to be expected. two months ago, we had an 18% rise in retail sales. about 8% last month.

now it is somewhere between 1% and 2% this month. i think that is consistent with the initial snapback an ongoing recovery. on in thee lights are economy back open is fading out of the data. i think the july data in total suggests the economy still has momentum. the question is whether we will to carry itmomentum through september and october. lisa: do you have a sense of how much the spending has been driven or supported by the fiscal support we have seen so far? michael: i think the government transfer payments have been crucial in underpinning this virtuous cycle of spending leading to increased production leading to a pickup in employment. if you look at personal income in june, personal income in june is about $19.9 trillion.

that is about 5% above where we were in february. if you subtract out the unemployment payments and the pandemic assistance, the really big checks sent to households, income is down more like a percent. i think it has been key -- down more like 8%. i think it has been key replacing income and keeping households consistent with full employment. if we do not get those payments going forward, income has to adjust to an economy with 11% unemployment. i think that is the debate we are having. if phase four does not come, will it be sufficient to keep the virtuous cycle going? lisa: when will it be able to withoutelf going another payment? it getsple might say

just enough money into the economy for new jobs and it may be worth it. at what point will we say it will sustain itself and people will get a job? michael: the answer to that is subjective. the recession was induced by shutdown orders. it is reasonable to say we should buttress household income on the other side. is two to three months of support enough? leaving the economy with an 11% unemployment rate is probably not strong enough and several more months of benefits would be helpful. what you would want to do is 2-4 more months. then i think you could take your foot off and say i think we have done enough to get the recovery on a self-sustaining basis, let's see where we are from here. backing off when the unemployment rate is 10% or

higher seems more risky than it needs to be. jonathan: how much of the money that was distributed the last has been spent and how much is sitting in bank accounts? can we figure that out somehow? michael: we can back out rough estimates. the savings i did go as high as 33%. it is coming back down. i think we are about a month away from having spent nearly all of the pandemic assistance. lastnk we are reaching the 45 days of that. i think we spent a lot of it but not all of it. i think there's still some accumulated savings that could support spending as we move into august. as you push into september, it is hard to argue that will be the case. jonathan: there is clear pain in this economy. all of us can agree on that.

i want to work out when it starts to show up in the headline data. do you expect it to be august or september? the enhanced unemployment benefits have expired. augusting to work out if is when we have a test or september. michael: from what i know this morning, i would say more september than august. seems to market data suggest the momentum is continuing. i think there's a difference between whether things are leveling out returning for the worse. i would put more emphasis on the september data versus august. but obviously, we will see. lisa: going forward, what is your biggest concern in the data that could indicate a bigger slow down and people are expecting? michael: i don't think this answer will surprise you, but it is employment. if households are not spending

enough -- are spending enough, production will elevate and rehiring will continue. if we get a break in the rehiring rate, i think all bets are off in that regard. we pay a lot of attention to the high-frequency data on mobility as well as the labor market data because that is where household confidence and spending will come. spending is being supported by government payments today, but it has to be more organic through employment growth going forward. i will be a interested in the will be very -- i interested in the university of michigan data later this morning. will it show a third monthly decline? that could be a sign households are feeling more shaky. if that number holds up, it may give you the view that labor markets are better than we are characterizing them at present and sliding away from government

assistance may not be as risky as we think. i think that is an important number to look at later this morning. jonathan: lisa would like to know what you think of high-yield credit in the united states. lisa: really? jonathan: [laughter] lisa: do you like triple c's? michael: i am not an angry bear at this point. i think the economy is showing good resiliency despite the high numbers of covid cases. i think that can continue, but i think it needs additional federal support. jonathan: i love the response from a serious economist. michael gapen, as always. alongside lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. in the next hour, live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." the equity market unchanged on the s&p 500, down about one

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>> in have to look at the technicals, not just the fundamentals, because right now the fundamentals are not what is driving the market. jonathan: it was thrilling to

catch up with monica erickson in the last 24 hours. live on bloomberg tv and radio, coming up later on bloomberg tv, looking forward to a conversation with mohamed el-erian in about 22 minutes. lisa: i can't wait. will you ask him whether he is an angry bear? jonathan: of course. first question, literally. lisa: i am sure that will be a phenomenal interview. meantime, we are taking a look at gold headed for the first weekly decline in more than two months. the question is whether this is the end of the momentum sending prices to the highest levels on record or whether this is recouping as we head towards new highs. what is your take right now on the dip we have seen in gold?

>> a mere blip. the market was overdue. we are looking down upon the old highs. that is not anything but a market that is consolidating. it could consolidate for months or a year. this is a market with underpinnings for higher prices that i think are stronger than the aftermath of the financial crisis. increased ingold price three times. lisa: gold is up nearly 30% on the year so far. what is the main argument behind the bull rally? >> we know it is unprecedented quantitative easing. it is not just the u.s., it is every one of them. i was looking at a trajectory this morning. it is much higher than after the financial crisis. where is the end in sight? i do not see it.

the key thing i am looking at is the stock market. if we have a rollover and copper peaks, that is more fuel for qe and that is the key thing driving gold. lisa: is it the devaluation of fiat currency? is it a bet on inflation? what is the larger concept behind what qe is doing that makes gold so attractive? >> inflation is the dream. at some point, we will get there. at some point, that is the win-win for gold. right now, it is deflation. the key inflection point is if we get a double top in the stock market, that will bring in more qe. it is only deflation and gold will continue to advance in the environment. right now, it is a little overbought. lisa: it raises the question, because there are a lot of investors saying by gold instead of bonds, offset equities as a hedge against risk-off feel.

and yet, we have seen gold move in tandem with stocks. how do you make sense of that? trend? a short term will they continue to move in tandem? there only 20 basis point slept until zero. unless you expect yields to start a new bull market, which is unlikely, there is not a lot of upside in price appreciation. the gold is unlimited. expect the trends to continue. particularly from certain levels. i view copper is getting expensive. crude oil got expensive above $42. it is backing off. the stock market turns over and kicks in the next round of qe. lisa: i want to get your sense on oil. we did get a little bit of weakness.

we are seeing that continue today as we get warnings from the iea that we will see much weaker demand going forward based on disappointing air travel. what is the main driver? earlier thisissues year with saudi arabia and russia coming into dispute about production or is this going to continue to be a demand story hampered by the lack of uptick in air travel? >> is all of the above. crude oil is in an extended bear market. there is too much supply, lack of demand. is too the market optimistic about demand coming back. the old 50 is the new 40 meaning can start makers making money around $40. supply will come back with any uptick in prices. lisa: you think prices will remain range bound or do you see

them breaking out one way or the other? >> wti is more likely to head to $30 then sustain above $50. the key risk is if we get a rollover the stock market. if stocks become a crude oil should drop -- if stocks peak, crude oil should drop double velocity. lisa: it is easier to bring industrial production back online. that is the driver of demand from a lot of markets. isn't this a positive for crude that helps to offset some of the decline in air travel? but its, it should be, has been export driven and depends on the rest of the world. gdp in china has been declining for 10 years. latelyng i have learned is to drop your estimates and expect copper and crude oil to drop. that is the trend in place for a couple of years. i think it will continue.

people are oh' overestimating te pickup in demand from china on crude drawing copper. lisa: i know know you come from a family of farmers. this weekend, we get a discussion of the phase one trade agreement between the u.s. and china. are you expecting anything out of that that could affect the soy farmers in the midwest? >> they did not help before. so he demand is picking up versus supply. store it looks good this -- soy looks good. the market is leveling at the lower plateau. grains need a weaker dollar so we can export. the dollar has come off a little bit at historically is quite strong. lisa: mike mcglone, thank you so much, taking a break from working in the office. we all feel terrible for you. cannot wait to see you when you get back to the office. let's look at what is going on

in the markets. support range bound on the s&p. the nasdaq in front and solidly to the upside, actually gaining ahead of the open. s&p still lower. 10-year yields are coming down breaking a five-day raising streak. the euro gaining a little bit versus the dollar. a little more volatility. you are seeing a charm to the markets as people try to understand what the main driver will be awash in liquidity. still no prospect of a deal in washington at a time of growing tensions between the u.s. and china. that meeting starting tomorrow to discuss the phase one trade agreement. a lot of people coming on the show this week saying the fed printingral banks money, go with momentum. we will see how long that lasts. el-erian on mohamed

"the open." .lso, joel greenblatt this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪