tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg August 19, 2020 7:00am-8:00am EDT
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>> the market is totally divided the real economy. > we are printing money in the u.s., but we haven't really seen the velocity of money into the system yet. >> this is the strangest recession. we have housing starts that are strong, retail sales that have already recovered. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. doll with optimism on the equity markets. we certainly saw that yesterday. welcome to our simulcast. good morning, bloomberg television around the world. an extraordinary stockmarket event. we are back to valentine's day, which nobody really expected. even the huge bulls back then didn't expect it.
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abramowitz, jonathan ferro off. anna edwards joining us with the london perspective. the vix, 21.59. the marketrn to overall. yields coming in two basis points on the 30 year bond. bond with a0 year negative yield had record interest. that is how odd that is not in the textbooks. , with a lot of things that are not in the textbooks now. the extent to which central banks are manipulating markets, keeping yields low, keep borrowing costs for everyone low. there is nothing normal about what we are seeing here. incredible movement on the equity market yesterday in the
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united states, getting back to valentine's day levels. this is the strangest recession, heard in that clip at the top of the session. the fundamentals of the economy look so daunting, but is the equity market just doing its job discounting way into the future? tom: we will have to see. it is very important to understand yields have come back. over to a lower yield regime. anna edwards, you have the morning brief. anna: yes i do. i will start with oil prices. thettle risk on through morning, but oil prices have been under pressure, and we have an opec+ meeting taking place a
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little later today. perhaps waiting to see how the so-called cheaters will be treated, those who don't necessarily comply with the target. at 2:00 p.m., the fomc minutes from the july 29 meeting. that seems like a long time ago, doesn't it? will we get more details on how they see their strategy around inflation developing? at 9:00 p.m., we get the dnc night three. ,t was a pretty emotional night telling the life story of joe biden by jill biden, and his ability to cope in times of stress. we'll see how that goes down with some of the heavy hitters speaking today. tom: i don't know if there is a united kingdom equivalency, but what an experiment this democratic convention structure is. the scaffolding going up at the white house for the president's speech, and the
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focus on the president has the incumbent. but it is fascinating after the pandemic what our politics goes back to. in the united kingdom, is there that same sense of a political process that we really don't know what it is going to be like after the pandemic? because weps, but have just come out of an election, you remember last year, there is a sense of chaos, a realtainly around tragic amount of chaos in some circumstances, but things do look more rested because the governing party does have such a big majority. of: we start strong on some the important parts of this equity market. jill carey hall joins us with bank of america. we spoke to candace browning about your new focus on small caps. you are a specialist there as
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well. is it about a rotation from tech to small-cap, or is it about tech still doing well and small-cap finally picking up? jill: i think, to your point on yields earlier, we have been in a market where what has been scarce has been rewarded, so yields have been scarce. growth has been scarce. you have seen a lot of these things working for a number of years now. small caps have obviously been challenged by trade tensions, by the fundamental backdrop, but while we have been cautious relatively on small caps near term, one of the longer-term listings -- long-term bullish seems is that if we see this ft to localization, we think that could be bullish longer-term for small cap themes. tom: do i just go out and buy
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small caps, or are you looking at different sectors? one of thenk important things right now is you are seeing a lot of divergence than the market in termsof valuations, and of performance spreads. it's been a good backdrop for stock pickers. from a sector basis, we are starting to see the more value-oriented cyclical sectors .tart to raise better overall value is something we like within the market. we expect we will see that rotation out of growth into ande as the profit recovery iconic recovery broadens out. on the re-shoring theme, there's a number of sectors that are slated to benefit. certainly tech companies, but also a number of industrials
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focused on automation or engineering. even in other cyclical sectors, a number of regional banks that might be exposed to manufacturing hubs. industrial warehouses could benefit as well. anna: i've heard a lot about re-shoring this week, and a lot about conversations with american strategists and businessmen that i have with people here in europe. is it going to remain quite a u.s. phenomenon? and is that because businesses think it plays well in washington or because they intend to follow through on this? tom: as you see firms --jill: as you see firms move out of areas like china, there's other regions in asia that will benefit, but companies are talking about bringing companies back to north america and to the u.s.. i think in areas like the midwest and the sun belt, that
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is where some of these i mentioned could benefit if we see higher wages from manufacturing. this could benefit lower income ,onsumers in areas like retail value retails. we are starting to see early signs of this actually taking hold. when we track earning calls, we are seeing more and more companies start to talk about this on earnings calls. we are seeing supply chain professionals talk about this. to talk abouting making tangible shifts with respect to this theme. is this something that is going to create jobs in america, ofdrive the bottom-line businesses that create automation technology? there are plenty of those in europe. we think so.
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for every manufacturing job created, you could see somewhere around six to seven jobs created in other industries. the overallt is why pickup in employment and wages could benefit retailers, financial services. there's a lot of knock on effects from this theme that we could see across the u.s., and certainly for automation, companies in industrial or companies that focus on industrial lasers, things like that, there's that angle as well, that automation and the internet of things, a lot of these themes we have been talking about we see as big multi-year themes related to this as well. as top 50ok at esg stocks, maybe top 200 stocks. can small-cap go esg, or are they not there yet? jill: it is a challenge in
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smaller caps because a lot of these companies may not have the resources or the disclosures, so it is tougher to evaluate. but we have done some work looking on themes of esg. for example, diversity, women on the board, etc., and we found that esg still works within small caps. companies that have more diverse boards are trading at higher multiples consistently. you are seeing better returns on equity. this is something that i think, as we continue to see money flow into esg strategies and as companies continue to focus on this, we found esg was particularly important. even though we saw outflows out of etf's broadly, we are continuing to see inflows into esg's. think it will continue to increase.
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tom: jill carey how, thank you so much on small caps. about amazon, apple, amazon, apple, but we ought to do more on small caps. i know you are looking at 6000 feet in notting hill after you did 15 big figures in sterling. how has your world changed with a $1.32 sterling? anna: i suppose you could suggest it would change a lot, although i remember the heady days of where we were, $1.60. datamorning, we've got cpi , inflation numbers higher than expected. that is not expected to last, though. a lot of people still talking about the bank of england cutting rates, so i wouldn't get too excited. tom: really interesting, the andte over rates
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disinflation and inflation tendencies into the autumn. coming up in our next hour, david malpass of the world bank. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." good morning. with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. nominated joeally biden for november's election. last night, testimonials from the party's old guard such as bill clinton. mr. clinton: if you want a president who defines the job as spending hours a day watching tv and slamming people on social media, he's your man. in a real crisis, it collapses like a house of cards. covid just doesn't respond to any of that. two beat it, you've got to
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actually go to work to deal with the facts. addressa joint keynote featured newcomers, mostly from the party's centrist wing. bloomberg has learned a package would eliminate the biggest between disagreement w republicans and democrats. pelosipeaker nancy suggested democrats might also agree to a smaller deal. president trump raising questions about the future of the trade deal with china. he says he called off last weekend's talks with beijing. he says he doesn't want to talk to china right now. the president called china's handling of the coronavirus unthinkable. target posted its fastest sales the last quarter, almost three times higher than the average estimate. targets adjusted earnings also had an all-time high. the ceo says school shopping started more slowly than usual.
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>> you know what donald trump will do with four more years. blame, believe, and belittle. and you know what joe biden will do, build back better. >> joe biden will be a president we will all be proud to salute. >> joe biden has shown that the heart of this nation still beats with kindness encourage. that is the soul of america joe biden is fighting for now. business, we all have our collective memories of these conventions. they are always fun and exhausting to attend. we welcome you to our simulcast on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. anna edwards in for a several woods and -- for lisa abramowicz and jon ferro. i want to imagine the wisconsin center with secretary of state john kerry and secretary of state colin powell coming out to a packed arena. kevin cirilli with us, our chief
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washington correspondent kevin, that didn't happen last night. what would that have been like to see colin powell address the democrats in milwaukee? kevin: it likely would have had cross over time where they would have shared the stage. it would have been such a historic interaction. i think as we dissect these virtual conventions, we are going to have to really see, do the two former secretaries of state speeches pack the same political punch that they would have had in a convention hall? for former secretary of state colin powell, here is someone who knows something or to about important speeches. he addressed the bob dole convention in 1996, and he was booed. why? because he supported abortion rights and affirmative action. so you have this history, you have the pageantry that comes
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with the convention, and honestly, i think it is largely missing from these conventions. ask this been dying to question. in your 27 hour workday, i can't get in to ask you. what are the lessons the republicans are learning from this two day extravaganza? kevin: i think michelle obama's speech really played to the medium, and i think when i talked to other strategists who are republicans, what they have said is that they are really weighing whether or not to put anyone in the room during these speeches. the president has a political advantage here that the democrats don't have, and that is he's addressed crowds. he was criticized for it, but he has still addressed crowds, large-scale and smaller scale crowds. just think back to the other week at one of his country clubs, when he spoke, and the images of individuals not having masks. he's also going to be on his
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home turf at the white house. when he addresses the nation, will there be any small amount of crowds that gather? it is so hard. even former president bill clinton, who has now spoken at virtually every convention spanning three decades, even for him, just speaking to a camera is so incredibly different than talking to people and playing to a room. anna: so we know. theme ask you about progressives in the amount of time given to them. is there anything burrowing, any anger or dissatisfaction in the progressive when you about the amount of airtime they are getting at this convention? kevin: not that i can gather, based on my reporting. there's a strong calculation when i talked to progressive strategists who say they really
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want to have a seat at the table of a joe biden presidency. they want to have joe biden zero, and as a result of that, you are seeing a coalition building of sorts. freshman congresswoman alexandria ocasio-cortez appearing for about a 92nd speech, and it -- about a 90 second speech, and she talked about trying to build that kind of coalition. the bottom line here is there's no other way to look at the first two nights of the virtual convention and say that joe biden is trying to make a pitch as a centrist candidate. whether or not that is a calculation that can get him to defeat the electoral college and president trump we don't know. strategists i speak with know that the republicans would just play that over and over again. anna: back in washington, the other thing burrowing is perhaps some kind of skinny deal in terms of fiscal stimulus.
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is this something that can be got over the line? kevin: i've got to be honest, i think the sources i've talked to are much more optimistic at a skinny deal. this is what they wanted all along. pelosiyou've got speaker calling back in the troops, so to speak, this weekend when they a $25 billion u.s. postal service package that really has no chance of going across the line. now that they are all going to be back in town, maybe they can get to another deal. tom: what is the plus-minus here for the democrats? are they advantaged by capitulating and doing a smaller deal, or by saying no, we are not going to participate? kevin: i think at this point, they recognize they've got to get this to some sort of deal, and to be candid, i said this the other week, but this is the same playbook that they have been following on government
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decade.s for the past the signal from speaker pelosi was going toat she try to have a second half of the deal or another vote in the lame duck, it was a massive sign that they are following and tracking sides in like the both terms of other fiscal fights. tom: what do you look for tonight at the convention? kevin: i look for who has a breakout moment. how will senator elizabeth warren play? apparenty is an heir for the democratic party. tom: thank you so much, mr. cirilli with mr. westin. driving forward a different conversation on the convention. that is tonight at 10:00 p.m.. upures up four, dow futures
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46. the lack of volume is amazing, how yield has come in. higher yield to the last 3, 4, 5 days. three days in a row, yield has come in with the real yield down -1.05%. not back to new lows, but getting there anymore than rapid fashion. one of our themes with michael sh -- with michael fargo, theof wells head of microstrategy, it will be interesting -- head of macro strategy, it will be interesting. what has been reported the last ,everal days inside the beltway bring up the panel, if you will, here. futures, dow 27,
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tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. lisa abramowicz and jon ferro off. rumor has it they are at two separate locations, worlds apart. we keep all of our valuable talent separate at all times. i am not sure when they are back. soon as the answer on their extended sabbaticals. anna edwards in london, leading our london coverage every morning, has just decided to extend her day. we are thrilled anna is with us. you havee great things covered is negative yields are unthinkable to the city and unthinkable to new york wall street as well. give us an update on how the negative yield debate prospers through august in the united kingdom. anna: it was a talking point
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earlier on in the year, and then it seemed that the market decided not necessarily negative yield, but we would see an interest rate cut perhaps from the bank of england coming this year, and that seems to still be the thinking, that we will get that interest rate cut. there isn't much further to go until you get down to zero. yield curve control also part of the conversation, whether that is in the toolkit. one place we do see negative yields is in part the euro zone. at -.49%, as you flagged at the start of the program. this isn't people getting out of the periphery into germany. this is across europe today. as: mark carney was touted finance minister in canada as he returns back to root for the maple leafs, and christian friedland taking that job
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yesterday. give us an update on governor bailey. how's he doing? well, it is early into his tenure. he's had a lot to do with. been does seem to have wind-up thinking. in the area part of this pandemic, we got some very joined up announcements of action being taken jointly by the bank of england and the treasury. that has gone down pretty well. but he's got a tough job now. there's not much further to cut to get to zero. to: there's goal to get september and october, unimaginable in this pandemic. schumacher writes brilliant notes for wells fargo after an acclaimed career, and we are thrilled he could join us this morning. buried in your note is the persistency of negative real yields. 2, or evenking up 1, three years where we see these
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persistent, residual real yields? michael: i think everyone likes to look back to the financial crisis and say, what can we learn from that? the interesting case is real yields in the u.s. were negative until the taper tantrum and 2013, so four years plus after the event. we expect real yield to become less negative, but probably stay in negative territory for quite some time. tom: we give you mass wednesday, which is a banner that says nominal yield, less inflation of some measurement. betty this real yield. which of those three items are you watching most closely, the nominal yield, our inflation expectations, or the residual real yield? michael: the headline number is always the nominal yield, but we think the real yield is the key thing to focus on. that is the ultimate return on principle, of course. that is what investors really should care about.
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come upeakevens have tremendously since march. if you look at u.s. 10 year inflation breakevens, up by 100 basis points give or take since equities bottomed, they seem to be back in sort of normal territory. real yields certainly are not. anna: good morning to you. i don't think you've been running a lot of different inflation scenarios. nobody really knows where the inflation numbers going to go, but what are the scenarios you are testing to see what they do to treasury, to the dollar, and other assets? what are the inflation scenarios you are looking at? michael: with respect to the pandemic, you can imagine a few scenarios. a really good one where there is a vaccine in six months that is broadly available. in that case, inflation picks up. a bad one, where there is no vaccine or it is delayed for you are to. in that case -- for a year or two. on top of that, you've got
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central bank policy. we got the fed minutes coming out later today. the fed has been pondering the idea of changing the way they approach inflation with the --pect of some sport of inflation in the respect of some sort of average target regime. anna: we are, and europe, observing cases of coronavirus picking up in some places. germany at a four-month high. other parts of europe having to limit movement a little bit to get to the tail end of summer to try and stop the spread. is this something that is going to show up in a different kind eurozone bondpan spreads? is this a point of tension that will be expressed in the bond market? michael: it could. if you see a very stark difference in the path of the pandemic, think back to march and april, italy had a very tough time. ondid spain, and spreads
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italian bonds went up dramatically. it could happen if you get a very differentiated outcome in the pandemic. youth, i had the great privilege of speaking with sir john templeton, and i will never forget something he said to me, which is there will be a shortage of bonds. we are now at what templeton predicted. why of a explain the 30 year record auction demand in germany with a negative yield? to our viewers, to our listeners, that seems surreal. michael: it really is incredible. today is a good example as well. equities are up, soft course lower bond yields are falling. yes, it does seem a little bit strange, but the takeaway is there is so much cash sloshing around in the system that needs to find a home. it has been a really tough environment for people to make long-term investments in real economy assets, where going to
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the capital markets, the securities markets, pretty simple, highly liquid, etc. there's been tremendous demand for assets across the world. on top of that come others do discussion we have been having about inflation. if you buy into the idea that inflation stays low for a while, maybe you could do sort of ok and some of these long-duration bonds. we think that is a very aggressive assumption. tom: exactly. we are not talking about austrian 100 your paper, but what is the horizon risk of higher yields, lower prices on a 30 year german bond? aren't investors, the ability to be crushed here is just extraordinary. michael: it is. if you go up 50 basis points, you are looking at losses on a price basis of 10% plus. the potential downside is
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enormous. the potential upside is very limited. it seems to us it is really not the greatest strategy. [indiscernible] tom: anna edwards, what mr. schumacher just said is absolutely critical. yield get a 0.5% move in you see ayear bond, reduction in the value of your investment. i thick a lot of people don't understand that. anna: absolutely. let depends on how negative it was when you traded in and how negative it is when you traded out. theme ask you about election in the united states and what that does to the curve you are looking at stateside. do we see a sort of textbook reaction to a changeover in power if that is what we get, or is there no book anymore, so
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strange are the times we are living in? michael: the textbook didn't do very well in 2016. having said that, if you look at history, typically when democrats take power, in particular if they get control of both houses of congress, the knee-jerk reaction is risk off. that has been fairly consistently the case over the last 50, 60 years. that kind of thing has only happened three times since the early 1960's, but still, that is the usual reaction. we would expect something like that, but again, that is a number of months off, and the textbooks have been having a tough time recently. tom: what do you think of the equity boom? how do you interpret record s&p 500? michael: you've got to try to separate the impact of the pandemic directly from all of the tremendous governmental support that's come in. i would liken it to a patient who is sick. the doctor says we are going to
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give you all sorts of medicine. you will feel substantially better for a few months. after that, you might have a hangover, but in the very near term, you will be much better. that, in our view, is what has been happening recently. you go back to march, there's been a tremendous amount of accommodation by the fed, by the u.s. treasury, by the european union. can go on and on. the equity markets have seized on this. but the big take away is we think it is very clear to risky asset investors that central-bank have your back. that was the big theme for most of the last decade. when you really believe that is the case, are you comfortable taking risk? yes. tom: thank you so much. hugely valuable there, particularly that clinic on nominal inflation expectations in real yield. always nice to touch on, particularly midweek. we don't do that on a monday or on a friday.
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these dynamics are really something. i don't think we give enough credit to the politicians who have to juggle the market voting every day their actions. we don't give them enough credit for that. anna: perhaps. we don't hear much about that from european leaders, i have to say. does seem to be more commented on by politicians stateside. the number of guests i speak to, you asked them why something is happening, and their apps and is there is just so much cash, so much liquidity seems to come back often. yes, the real yield will be filmed for this weekend's entertainment. taylor riggs will be in for jon ferro, and that is a good thing because she can do the math of the real yield. coming up, one of our most popular guests, james bianco here on this mixture we are in, this odd august. really looking forward to that.
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futures up four, dow futures up 39. the vix really unmoved over the last two days, 21.65. anna edwards and tom keene. it's a simulcast. it's bloomberg. karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. democrats have made it official. they have nominated joe to take on president trump in november -- nominated joe biden to take on president trump in november. past democrats stars like bill clinton and future ones like alexandria ocasio-cortez made short appearances. so did work a can secretary of state colin powell. >> joe biden will be a president we can all be proud to salute. he will never doubt that he will stand with our friends and stand up to our advertisers -- to our adversaries, never the other way around. karina: tonight the party will hear from senator kamala harris, and we will hear more in the
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coming days from the postmaster general about his decision to suspend changes to the mail service until after the election. testify in will front of congress. democrats were concerned that a slowdown could hurt voting by mail. bloomberg has learned measures could target swaps with companies in asia and europe. last week, the u.s. sees the ed thets of 4 -- u.s. seiz contents of four tankers to venezuela. keeping up pressure on opec-plus nations that have been exceeding that output targets. the code on nigeria to emphasize the cuts to production. nigeria, iraq, and several other nations consistently fall short of pledges to limit output. shoppers are still spending on
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and we are entering recovery. he was reallym: pumped up yesterday. it was great to see him, his pumped up optimism on the equity markets really extending over to the global economy. one of the great strengths of the bloomberg is our commodity coverage. you put together state-of-the-art commodities. acquisitions is james herron, bloomberg reporter, but that barely describes his experience. we had our "surveillance" meeting today, and somebody in london said, hey stupid, you haven't done opec in a while. so now we are going to do opec. what is the power of the cartel into the autumn of 2020? james: well, they are influencing the market right now. some of the ministers in the group meeting today to discuss
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their plan to return quite a lot of oil to global markets, about 2 million barrels a day, give or take. that is influencing prices. we are seeing the prices of some physical crude starting to weaken a bit in asian markets. the question is whether they can keep supporting prices while adding supply into market, given there are still a lot of questions about the strength of demand and the risk of a second wave of the virus all over the world. tom: we have seen a pop in iron ore. francine lacqua really featured this yesterday. and equity like rebound. do you look at her and crude and cn equivalent to iron ore that has got a lot more room to move? james: it's possible. the market has experienced extreme volatility over the last few months, and that could return. i said,lized, but as there's a huge amount of
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uncertainty remaining there. wave doesn't come as strong as is feared, and opec keeps holding lien barrels a day from the market, we could see prices rise further there's also a downside risk if a second wave does come through and returns extra supply to the market. anna: something we are all mindful of. let me ask about what opec is achieved here, or opec+. is there a surprise in the industry, or even praise for the way that opec has managed to lift prices here? complyaged to sufficiently with its production cuts? james: yes, we definitely seen praise from the ceos of topanies from the biggest
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some of the explorers. if opec had put aside its price war that happened in march and april and made this historic production cut of almost 10 million barrels a day, the market would be in a very different place right now. producers are still experiencing a lot of pain. there is a risk that shale producers, for example, still face bankruptcy. but everyone would be any much worse position if opec hadn't done this, for sure. anna: what does the floating storage picture look like. we also became incredibly assessed with how much floating storage there was, and how much about his full, at a time where we saw a negative prices on oil. do we ever return to those negative prices and return to that floating storage, or is that something we can forget about for a while? james: it seems unlikely that negative prices could come back. that was really a symptom of the extreme economic disruption that happened in april.
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overall, floating storage and on store -- and onshore storage has been drawn down, but it is questionable now whether that is still happening to the extent that it needs to in august because opec is starting to increase production again. we heard question about demand. a huge surplus has built up in those few months of the initial stage of the pandemic. what more than one billion barrels perhaps got added. if they want to sustainably go higher, that really does need to be run down. that is a very large surplus that opec needs to handle. that is why the agreement in place runs until april 2022 because they understand the scale of the job to be done and the length of time it will take to do that. tom: your latest effort with grant smith has a little nugget in the subhead, where the king of saudi arabia calls somebody
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in nigeria to jawbone them. what does saudi arabia say on the phone? what is the way that they say get your act together and be in the cartel? how do they actually affect that? is all very: it polite and diplomatic. ,pec is still an organization for all of its infighting, that functions on the polite level. the saudis really priority of the moment. the oil minister has made it his end the goal to cheating that has always happened throughout the history of the cartel. nigeria have really treated their production targets as if they are an aspiration rather than a hard goal. they have fallen short
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consistently, and now the pressure is really on them to remind them, you need to do what you said you would do. we are not going to let it slide as we have in the past. tom: thank you for that update on the pic -- on opec. we haven't done that in a while. futures upfour, dow 42. yields come in and are persistently lower this morning. in three basisd points. curve flattening as well. i really want to watch that through friday to see if we test the recent lows we have seen across the entire yield complex. -.075% --r tip, 0.65%. right that what we heard there from james herron is it is a stronger cartel now?
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is that actually true? anna: yeah. it is certainly being praised by those in the markets, the way it is managed to stick to its commitments. --are told by those industry by those in the industry that they are historic cuts, they have largely managed to stick to them. i was really interested that james talked about the puck as being -- that james talked about opec is being very polite organization. vestige ofhem as a history, those scrums at opec meetings? hordern brings her hockey equipment down from long island when she goes to those scrums. what we are going to do on our simulcast is drive forward the conversation. first of all, david malpass will be joining us for the world bank. thrilled about that. it's been a frequent visit from mr. malpass.
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>> the market is totally divided from the real economy. , there'sou look at it only so far the market itself can go without the stimulus. we are printing money in the u.s., but we haven't really seen that velocity of money into the system yet. >> this is the strangest recession. we have housing starts that are strong, retail sales that have already recovered. >> you've got to step up and put some in. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone.
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