tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 20, 2020 4:30pm-5:00pm EDT
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♪ 's world: from bloomberg headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. romaine: i'm romaine bostick. tesla, an, microsoft pushing the nasdaq to a record high. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: not much. tech leads the s&p 500 higher. the nasdaq hits a new record close again despite geopolitical
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tensions. you really have more of the same. tech outperforms. one jobless claims around million. rates grinding ever lower. still fears surrounding the coronavirus. it feels as though this market just has a complete disregard for warnings coming from the fed, warnings from u.s.-china relations? and rates refuse to go up tech outperforms. you can have a situation where value outperforms. we saw that briefly in june. or you could have a market that actually goes down. that does not seem to have. instead, we go back into this one very specific group of mediocre growth. caroline: at the beginning of trade, we were a bit worried.
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we saw the reading on the philly fed. the ceos being asked the key question of caution. ofare looking at a blue line what is current outlook. in six months, may be a little bit of an improvement. it looked pretty dire. it was a mess. bloomberge had the consumer comfort index data came out. one of the folks that works behind the scenes here, dan curtis, pointed this out. you look at the difference between the comfort level of people who identify as republicans and democrats. disparityit of a here. , a few care about those people, 45%.
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a lot of these trendlines, it does give you a sense not just of the political breakdown, but a breakdown with regards to geographic and income levels. lines still well-off the pre-covid highs. , initially had a pump jobless claims for the week going up to 1.1 million. at these levels, they are ridiculously high. you don't want to see any backsliding. you hope that this far into it, you just would not be seeing claims at this level. the labork more about market, i want to bring in indeed chief economist. you track your own data. one thing that is striking to me in your latest work is that you
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have seen steady improvements. it is not a v-shaped recovery there has been a steady improvement in listed job openings up until recently. >> thank you for having me here. at indeed, we are looking at job overall number of job postings. 20% to this point last year. that is a decline. it is certainly better than its worst point in may. it has flatlined this month. mays the first time since we have seen a slowdown. it is widespread across geographies. it is hard to point to places where virus cases are searching, ging or lockdown is
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changing. caroline: talk to us about the sectoral breakdown. many are talking of the leisure industry, which has of course been under pressure. when we are able to come out of our shells, we will immediately see restaurants rehiring. , are theyo knology just being able to do more with less? >> i think that is one of the surprises. in some of the high wages set errors like tech and finance, these are sectors that people can work from home, sectors where their immediate customer base for demand did not dry up. they were slower to layoff. but they are less inclined to higher when there is a lot of uncertainty. in comparison, sectors like
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retail, restaurants, they are often hiring in response to changes in demand today and next week. below where they were at this point last year. retail, they are pretty much back. romaine: how does that square with some of the geographic trends we saw, where you saieh basis, ke on a percent in new york, a much higher spike. out west, a pretty significant percentage decline. unusual inession is that it hit big cities hardest. unlike past recessions, it is the biggest cities that have
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seen the biggest drops in job posting, the biggest drops in unemployment, and the biggest drops in payroll employment. the hardest hit sectors. they are also places where local businesses are suffering. jobsmore people are in where they can work from home. they are not going to retail, not going to restaurants. businesses,e local often wealthier large metros like the bay area and new york, those are some of the businesses suffering the most in the recession. joe: there is this whole question of the unemployment insurance expansion. one argument is if you keep the monthly checks to high, people will not go back to work.
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is noher argument, there tension. uss what you are seeing help resolve that question? >> the piece that we see is that job postings are down versus last year. that does not mean that there are lots and lots of companies that are trying to hire but cannot find enough workers. if that were the case, we would see many more open jobless claims that are not being filled. government data as well, the number of unemployed workers job opening much higher now than it was in february. caroline: you're currently in san francisco. it's i am interested in how this unfolds -- the economy of san francisco must be worrying right now that more and more of the
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businesses that are focused there because of the technology focus now realize they don't need to pay the high prices. listingsou seeing job change and whether it is remote first, whether it is seeing a more spread out geographical calling? or in francisco, advertising if they are in new york. >> i am based in san francisco. there is a lot to worry about here today although most of us are focused on wildfires. the effect of remote work could play out in a lot of different ways. there are some people, if they can truly work remotely all the time, might decide to move to a cheaper place where they can stay in their job or work at a smaller job at a similarly high
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salary, they would help. ishink a big question whether remote work means fully remote or means only going in one day a week. people who might move might move someplace in the bay area, or in one of the smaller towns around the bay area, and not necessarily to some other part of the country. a lot of the details could have a big impact on where people end up moving. romaine: great to have you. you do some great research. indeed chief economist. coming up next, we will talk about the coronavirus outbreak. history has shown that every time you have an epidemic,
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e in europeanrg countries. angela merkel and emmanuel macron saying they oppose new lockdown. with more,g us bloomberg new economy forum editorial director. fascinating work that you have done. you look at these sort of massive shocks to the world from pandemics and found they have deep changes. hello, i just lost you there. joe: you have done some work looking at the impact that historically pandemics have had. they end up changing our relationship between the government and public. andy: indeed. out, has beenurns
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a godsend for autocrats and authoritarians all over the world. it has given them the perfect excuse to expand their power society,economy, over over individuals. they want to get inside your home. it has been like this since the middle ages. used theirlers campaigns against the plague to control their populations. it just cannot resist that temptation. the difference today, the tools available to authoritarian regimes are more powerful than they have ever been. interesting,is whether or not -- has this seeped into normal authoritarian governments? we have seen contact tracing going on in the united kingdom.
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but certain countries that have managed to get a lid on the virus. germany. we know the germans have a lot of pushback about data. do you have to encroach on orple's privacy or freedoms, does it just work that much better in authoritarian areas? >> you are right. it sort of crosses regime type. is demonstrably the case that those governments that have made most extensive use of surveillance technology have ino been the most successful containing the coronavirus. taiwan used its health care database and immigration database. when you go to get your covid
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checkup, it raises all kinds of alerts based on where you have been. profilesures your risk card data, cell phone data, triangulate that to figure out your movements. singapore, hong kong, these wearable devices. hasll say that no country taken the surveillance further than china. adapting the surveillance tools and to control the population and sort of weaponizing them in order to take on and defeat covid-19. romaine: bring this back to the u.s. for a second. there has been a lot of evidence, at least surveys out there, that seems to suggest
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that a lot of americans are kind of content or at least ambivalent about the collection of data from their cell phones and other vices. andy: this is something else that goes all the way back to the middle ages. populations faced with these mortal threats are quite repaired to give up their civil liberties. it with theexpect government. the state figures that it will get credit for doing something, anything, to defeat this life and death virus. you think back to, for instance, president trump who, at the beginning of this pandemic, declared he had total control. a pall overhas cast
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the elections. a lot of americans are worried about the integrity. mail-in voting. the safety of voting. all kinds of issues. world,ually, around the dozens of elections, something like 64 elections have been canceled or suspended as a result of covid-19. thanks forrowne joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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similar basically your winners and losers look on a daily basis and on a year-to-date faces. up 2% this week. communications up 2%. these are the key winners. infotech and consumer discretionary have outperformed. your laggards, the likes of energy. utilities as well. market: any time the starts to get a little skittish, they go back to the playbook they are used to. sarah ponczek is a cross asset reporter for us at bloomberg away think understands this phenomenon very well. is there anything that will break people free from this cycle? brands, the
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watermelon pumpkin spice hand sanitizer? really alluring. i think if you will have any catalyst and something that really sticks. we have seen fits and starts where we see value take the lead. to really see this stick, you need the skittishness over covid to really take hold. you look at nasdaq outperformance, faang outperformance, it is the safety or the stay-at-home trade all wrapped in one. intial jobless claims coming better than expected. back-to-school season, people are worried what that looks like. our kids going to be able to go
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to school? there is still a skittishness. as long as you have that remaining, you can say this trade will go away. joe: you talk about all of this, one trade. incredibleing an year, especially in the midst of this crisis. big realis it all one rates trade where real interest companies withnd no profit before the year 2050. allh: these really are interconnected. a lot of people look at this as a long-duration trade. you look at where real rates are right now. record lows. that has also caused people to go into those real assets.
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this is all interconnected. ifmakes you think though, they are all interconnected, if there is the possibility that we start to see real yields go higher, what does that mean if these traits are wind at the same time? caroline: you had a great stat on twitter today showing that the breadth of this market is nonexistent. faangs front and central. we managed to push higher even some stocks were higher. most were down. sarah: i have to give credit to blog.n bloomberg's m live the s&p up, yet at the same time, less than one third of
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stocks advanced. the nasdaqo seen 100. if you look at percent of stocks above their 50 day moving average, we are seeing this participation it is catching a lot of people's attention. people saying, this is a very narrow rally. they can't continue. rallyaying it is a narrow , sure we had the airlines and cruise lines all participating, but has been a narrow rally throughout. caroline: we thank you for all the stats. that is all from "what'd you miss?" joe: we can just replay the show tomorrow. romaine: this is bloomberg.
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