tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg August 25, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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♪ >> good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters. it is day break europe. your top stories today, stocks are higher. nasdaq closes at yet another record. optimism boosted by hopes on coronavirus treatment even as thed of the f.d.a. walks back claims on plasma therapy. president trump defends his virus response on day one of the republican national convention. and cameos from frontline
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workers. he said the democrats are still blaming america first. and washington and beijing hold talks on phase one trade deal with u.s. saying both sides saw progress. this comes as china's foreign minister arrives in europe today. 6:00 a.m. in london, 7:00 a.m. in paris, good morning to you. have we reached the top? have we hit the high? we're in a pecklative bubble. morgan stanley said we're hop hev -- top heavy, ann marie. and they're worried about growth. ann marie: -- annmarie: the sales force.com entered that. his is a tech rally.
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john just hit the mat and said k is not ok. he said think of it like algator jaws, you could easily get bitten. manus: and the other side of the coin, do we get a woosh that turns into a v. i'll leave you with one of the quotes from the mar began stanley piece. i expect a growth. -- a growth scare. followed by a rate scare in the next few weeks and month which is could give us the first tradeable correction in the major equity end cease. how are the end cease doing this morning? it's all about vaccine and tray. we'll get into the convention in a moment. ow are markets look, annmarie. annmarie: we have a fresh record set for wall street yesterday.
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up .5% this morning and continued to climb. some f course we see -- strength in the offshore yuan. that was your morning price action. now to the politics. the republican party formally nominated president trump far second term. the president tied to paint a positive picture of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. we saw a procession of speakers including members of his own combat o set out to with what the democrats said. >> biden is so weak on biden that the intelligence community said the chinese communist party favors biden. they know he'll weaken us economically and on a world stage.
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annmarie: donald trump speaking there. joining us now is bloomberg's senior editor who spent years in d.c. and is now at the singapore bureau. what were the highlights, would you say, of day one? there was a lot to digest. >> there was. a lot of day one was recasting the narrative. one mentioned a lot was on the virus about the handling of it. several speakers said china had given the u.s. the virus and donald trump took early action. they faulted joe biden and democrats for not backing trump's travel restrictions quicker. and the -- at the same time something that struck me was the aim to try and rewrite the republican party on racial issues. after the death of george floyd and as there are ongoing clashes right now as we speak in kenosha, wisconsin, following
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the death -- not death but following the shooting of a black man by police there. he's in the hospital right now. so you saw a parade of speakers, most notably tim scott the keynote, the only black republican in the senate, come out and say the republican party is the party of opportunity. several speakers coming out and saying that democrats have failed cities and failed the people who are in the streets rotesting right now. manus: what can we expect the next few days? the nomination is official, his son speaking last night, what is the -- what does the roll call look like? derek: i think you'll see a lot of donald trump. you'll see a lot of people he agrees. with you saw him on night one. i would expect to see a lot more of him culminating with this thursday speech. i am very struck by how much
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these speakers are the sorts of people who are very much in the trump orbit. there's a lot of really big republican names who aren't actually speaking at this at all in favor of some of those voices. so i think this is a convention that is really about the nominee to a degree that we haven't seen a lot before. but you're going to try and see a lot of this redefinition, the idea of just not even just taking an argument and arguing the other side of it but changing the entire baseline on which you start to see things. so i think that's going to be one of the biggest things you'll see threading through the entire reform n.c. this week. manus: ok. let's see how the polls look as we go into the weekend and sunday shows. derek wallbank keeping track of the republican national convention. we've got it coovered. speakers include first lady
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melania trump. secretary of state's decision to speak at the decision while on a taxpayer funded trip abroad is raising questions about mixing politics with his role as merica's top diplomat. great to have you with us. one of the things that goldman's postured for the whole market to reconsider is that the democrats not just take the white house but take both chambers and that could unseat the -- potentially the rate narrative. it would increase volatility. how would you see that risk? > i'm not sure it will raise volatility. the markets in suspension are waiting for the november elections. you've got two events. the november elections, that's one. and the coronavirus. those are two major risks. and the third major risks is the large disconnect we have between
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markets and real activetism real activity, unemployment, trade, you name it. formal investment. big gaps. so those are the major three risks. need toi think what you think is what the repricing is going to be happening. i think we're going to be in for some major repricing not necessarily because the democrats come in but simply because how long can you rely on monetary policy and central banks to keep the asset markets up. i think that is a major question. that's the sort of thing that you're going to get persistently coming up. not so much a democrat position necessarily or republican position but fundamentals driving the markets. annmarie: the real issue is bond
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prices, what are you expecting out of jay powell this week who will be speaking thursday morning? >> i think jay powell is going to say that the fed has done all it can in terms of rates. if you look at the fed's balance sheet it's now jumped up, it's now over 35% of g.d.p. in a very, very short period of time. you've injected a lot of liquidity. i think powell will say two thing. number one, a great deal about uncertainty, recovery, and that's true, recovery is very choppy not just in the u.s. but across the globe. so he will say we will be steady. don't expect to have any rate changes at the moment. we'll continue with observing the markets, keeping them liquid as much as possible. so i don't expect any major hanges in powell cease speech.
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manus: morgan stanley say we're in for a correction, a correction we could trade. they say you'll get a growth shock that is the -- gives congress a push to deliver the fiscal, the fiscal narrative, the fiscal deal that we need. it could spur an increase in the rates given the federal reserve's lack of willingness to employ control. it could be the alligator jaws that annmarie referred to followed by that could take us over the hill. maybe a big fiscal shock we are maybe underestimating. >> it may well be. i tend to look on the other side saying that if anything we're running a potential for a negative shock. that we'll find out that we've used many of the tools, fiscal and monetary tools, but it's the coronavirus that's driving real
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activity and not much fiscal or monetary policy and therefore marks will be disappointed and it could go the other way round. manus. we'll talk about those alligator jaws. that's where annmarie is focused, the jaws of the alligator. headline this is morning, chancellor angela merkel demanding full transparency from e kremlin over alex sy navalny. a german medical team determined he was likely poisoned last week. the berlin hospital says he's in serious condition and may suffer long-term damage. the u.s. food and drug administration is walking back its claims over an experimental plasma therapy. the idgetcy's commission said it
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provided dramatic benefits and could save a huge number of lives. last night they were forced to clarify its numbers. there are promising signs for the treatment but the benefits are yet fully -- are not yet fully known. wisconsin's governor has deployed the national guard after police shot a black man in the city of kenosha. south of milwaukee. that was on sunday. troops are being tasked with guarding infratruckture, protecting firefighters. the aclu criticized the move calling it militarized policing. global news on air and powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts -- analysts. you like the alligator analogy don't you? annmarie: i do got to be careful out there, you could easily get bitten. but coming up, you did see some prodepress overnight. u.s. and chinese negotiators discuss the phase one trade deal. washington says both sides are
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>> they don't have the resource to fight covid. to reduce their current cash flow payment bus also looking at reducing the stock of their debt which would give life at the end of the tunnel. ♪ anus: this is "bloomberg daybreak" europe. senior u.s. chinese officials have held a routine court and say they're satisfied with the progress under the phase 1 trade deal. they say they addressed steps china had take ton ensure protection of intellectual property, intellectual property rights and remove barriers to u.s. companies in finance and agriculture. the two sides say they're committed to the success of the
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deal. to give you an idea, sal hi has been tracking that. between the banking and trade narrative. the trade narrative is so much more asia centric for you isn't it? >> it certainly is. we got this news about an hour before marks started trading in china and hong kong. they were already trading on optimism the ones that were open on this vaccine optimism. this is an important step but the timing is interesting as we saw with the start of the republican national convention. these talks were supposed to occur a couple of weeks ago. where we saw most of the move as you can see in the chart was in the offshore yuan. it strengthened about .1%. it does seem to be having some resistance. you could see it march to 6.85 on the back of stimulus and the fact that yields are high in this low rate environment. when it comes to market moves themselves we did see an uptick or are see an uptick for a third
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session. that's been positive momentum riding on the back of that you are seeing weak nbs hang shy and hong kong. remember the hong kong index yesterday hit a five-month high and had reinfection coming through in hong kong too. china's 10-year bond futures have dropped to their lowest level since january. to get an implication of what this latest or talks i should say is going to mean we see that when we get the third batch of trade data coming throughout of july and particularly looking at what's happening with corn prices, hovering near five-year highs. corn is being used to plug this shortage. beijing moves to quicken the pace of purchases to meet obligations under the phase 1 talks. ann marie? annmarie: thanks for joining us. with us is the founder and chief onomist at nasr sadidi and
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associates. it's clear they're buy bug in the enough to keep up with the pace agreed on in january. i think they have to buy another $130 billion in the second half of the year. it's a little suspect when the u.s. trade respective said they're satisfied with this progress. with this type of pace is it just me -- does this just mean phase two is off the table for now? >> i think two things. obviously when the forecast was made how much china would import we were in a different world, this was precovid. expectations on greth in the u.s. and china were much higher than what we actually got. it's not surprising that you're not going to be able to meet all the expectations. what is surprising is that china has kept its commitments quite well particularly on the agricultural side. i think the timing of this new thing is again related to the
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november elections. we're seeing more moves by the u.s. administration to show that we've had some successes, particularly on china, and this is one of them. i think showcasing it at the beginning of the republican national convention. i think this is what you're seeing now. a lot of politics happening at the same time as the -- as that coming up. i think china will continue buying. i think goes two will be a question mark. particularly because china would look at it in the widest context of the beginning of potentially a cold war or a technology war with huawei. china tends to look in a wider complex although it will always be up on trade. manus: we wake up certain mornings and get perhaps overexcited, a little too much sugar montana playpen, between
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vaccine narratives and trade deal progress which is nowhere near what was agreed. but the yuan has rallied. $weakness but this yuan rallied but nowhere near as well as perhaps other e.m. currencies. if there's a substantive breakthrough on trade and an abatement on tech, does the yuan rerate significantly higher? >> i think it's a strong application of the yuan, china will resist that china doesn't want to see a strong appreciation of the yuan. if you have some strong surprises on policy as a betting man i would go for much stronger yuan than what we're seeing. there's also the other side of that, that what you're seeing is
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dollar weakness. remember something that we don't talk about is the large buildup of debt by the u.s. and europe whereas china has not built up as much debt. i think the market is going to start, has to start. this large increase in budget deficits and debt on the horizon. we have now over100% in the united states in terms of debt to g.d.p. china is not there. so china has a lot of fiscal space it can use u.s. and europe don't. annmarie: toiment ask about china's domestic market and we've seen the idea of china and china exceptionalism coming out they have covid crisis and their economy rebounding. the other day i saw in a search for serious yield china dollar bonds above $18 billion are yielding above 15%. do you find this only place for
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yields in china is this something you'd look into in the chinese domestic market? >> i think what you're seeing in china is very interesting. previously you had on export and potentially export recovery is now being changed into chinese -- in the chinese narrative itself in terms of domestic, looking at domestic demand as the main source of growth and for recovery. i think we're getting into very different territory and on that basis, yes, i think those types of yields i think are very attractive and should be looked at. particularly when thy china is opening up markets. we're seeing bad news fall. i for one would get into the hinese market. manus: question is will american
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tropical storm was downgraded while the other gathered strength. i know you're looking at the two strongs. manus: tropical storm marco dropped by laura is set to become a hurricane. before making landfall on thursday. 82% of the oil in the gulf has been halted as operators brace for the weather system to hit. we've had a rapid recovery in oil prices. is the risk that shutting this comes back in at this 42, 45, 42, 45 area? >> yes, i think that's been the typical thing, i think you're spot on. shale will come back p on. quite quickly. we have a range of 40 to 45. where the wells are started again. you get delivery.
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i don't think the hurricanes themselves will do anything more than accelerate the return of shale in force on the u.s. market and potentially for export. annmarie: quickly -- manus: now -- annmarie: i was going to say quickly do you have a year to date year end price for brent? >> i think that will dependent on what sort of -- depend on what sort of recovery we get in third and fourth quarter. we are bound within that range, in the range of 38 to about 45. per barrel. i don't think it's going to go north of that manus: it's good to commit to a price we're being told by the producer. i shouldn't have halted. stay with us. don't hang up the phone. commit. commit to "daybreak europe."
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♪ annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in london, i'm annmarie, with manus live. here's today's top stories. stocks trade higher after the nasdaq closes at another record. optimism boosted by hopes of a coronavirus treatment even as the head of the f.d.a. walks back claims on plasma therapy. president trump's response on day one of the republican
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national convention. nikki haley says the democrats are still blaming america first. and washington and beijing hold talk in the phase one deal saying both sides saw progress. this as china's foreign minister arrives in europe today. manus, good morning. a lot to disquest this morning, especially out of d.c. we had trade talk overnight which many are saying is it politically the timing, is politically the timing helpful given the r.n.c. kicking off? and we have fresh records out of wall street, he says think of the recovery like alligator jaws, you could easily get bitten. everyone is talking about the idea of a k recovery. he said k is not ok. >> k is not ok. i think to a certain extent that's what people are worried about, you see this gargantuan leap in things like apple and
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tesla and they go -- it scoops up all the emotion. we'll hear from him shortly. i love cooperman. apple does a stock split and the call option volume triples to 2.1 trillion. doesn't make much sense. let's rip through these markets. s&pmbing, the yuan is stronger this morning. what would happen if let's say for example trump wasn't returned? goldman talking about that in the bond market. let's say the democrats took both the houses you'd reprice the bond market. my last guest said. we've got corn in there i was torn between corn and soybeans. still got an awful lot of product to buy to make up for phase one trade deals. 350. is that a bushel of corn. what is a bushel of corn? do you know the size of a bushel of corn? that's your job for the next 30 minutes. a bushel of corn. no. ok.
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we'll come back to that in a moment. all the commodity marks are rallying on the pack of this on a phase one trade deal being appraised. and a story from aierman medical navalny, g alexei putin's biggest critic, was likely poisoned. chancellor an je lohr merkel ncouraging an nst. maria has been tracking the events across the landscape. where does this leave russia and their relations with the west? belarus was yesterday's top billing today it's the poisoning. marie: what this shows is having a normal or i would say more normal relationship with russia is hard. trusting vladimir putin is also very difficult. you know up until now we had
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heard from president trump say he wanted russia back in the g-7. mack ron also said the relationship -- ma cron said the relationship had to be resent. they said there will be talks about perhaps new sanctions on russia. when you look at angela merkel the tone was severe, saying we need to find out what happened here. russia has to be very transparent. members are saying if you're an opposition lead for the russia it's a very difficult, tricky situation but you have to factor in that a similar incident happened already in the u.k. in 2018. prime minister theresa may was in office at the time and didn't get many answers from russia. also factor in the relationship with germany is particularly complex because it is still business transactional germany still very reliant on russian gas. so again a complex situation when you look at the politic bus also just the business
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transactional aspect of it. annmarie: what about what's next from the e.u.? what can we expect? maria: i think we're going to hear from the european commission today no question at mid day when they take questions from the press. there's going to be a lot of talk about maybe extending sangs on russia, whether we're going to get new ones whether a new formal investigation triggered from the european union not just germany and of course we're waiting to hear not just from angela merkel but also emmanuel macron who said you cannot i ignore russia. this is a big country and you have to reset that relationship but again when you look at this tiche incident, if this is confirmed and we do get indications that the russia government had anything to do wit it's difficult to see how you get to anything that looks like a normal relationship with russia and the russian government.
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annmarie: maria, thank you for joining us. we stick with europe. germany's final g.d.p. fix yours are expected to confirm the scale of the slump at the height of the lockdown restrictions. it's expected to strengthen 0.1%. they've welcomed the storm etter than most. nasr when you look at the stock market you wouldn't think we've had millions unemployed around the world. a lot of furlough programs are set to expire around europe. is there a risk to the european recovery since many investors are say europe is ahead of the united states in terms of recovery? >> i think this risk of tapering is certainly there. europe was a little behind in terms of stimulus programs although the e.c.b. of course arly on joined the fed and the
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e.c.b. balance sheet is similar in size to that of the fed. that didn't happen on the fiscal side. germany of course at the forefront that success if you look at the employment program that angela merkel put in place that helped germany produce better numbers than italy, spain or the u.k. however, the fiscal side in europe remains a question mark. even the stimulus package. we only start it in 2021. i think the story is a bit different for europe in that fiscal tools are not going to be helpful at the aggregate level as you have in the united states. so very mixed picture. although germany is in the forefront and continues to drive hat even on the export side.
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manus: one of the conversations they had yesterday, the e.c.b. will run, they have a tolerance for the rally, around 120. there's a lovely line, the fx strength of the index. for you how much of a challenge is this rally in the euro? do you think the next step from christine la guard is verbal interveng? >> i think you're right. i think there will be verbal intervention. i don't think the europeans want to see a strengthening of the euro at this stage. they want to export and that depends also on recovery in china. that's a major export market. i think they would like to see the euro at government levels but i think we're forgetting
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that what we're seeing is across the board. it's not so much that you're getting a strong euro strengthen, you're getting dollar weakness pa practically across the board. that's what we need to focus on. what's going to be happening to the dollar and therefore what's going to be happening to u.s. policy. that will be the major changes that we should be looking for. i think the e.c.b. will maintain a steady course under la guard. he's put in liquidity. she's kept rates he. he's willing to help banks. i think the banking sector is what we need to focus on globally because remember those very low rates and yields are hurting banks ability. when you don't have recovery you don't have any operational profits as well. so look out for bank profitability because that could be the sign of a crisis. annmarie: it used to dominate
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our mornings, but it's moved down the list after coronavirus and other items, but brexit. you said there's a nontrivial possibly of failure. what does that do to the pound and the euro which due to dollar weakness has been higher? >> on the trading side you'd have to sell the pound. the boris johnson government wants to strike a deal. i think they're looking for a hard brexit. and therefore i don't see a deal happening by year end. remember the deadline is very, very short. you've got to agree probably by the 15th of october, mid october. that has to go to all the european countries to be read and commented on. unlikely that you're going to be able to do so by the december deadline.
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i think the u.k. is looking for a hard brexit. i'm not quite sure why, what motivates that. and maybe the idea that weaker pound will help nuclear recovery. maybe that's on the cards in terms of government policy. on the trade side you don't need to have a trade deal with canada. you won't have a trade deal with the united states. so i'm not quite sure what the et is in terms of trade. it can make havoc in u.k. trade relations with the rest they ave world. by the end of december. that'll mean high inflation. let's wait and see. annmarie: yeah, we certainly will wait and see, we'll be watching that story closely here in london. thank you so much for your time this morning. now for your first word news. both the united states and china are seeing progress under this their phase one trade deal and
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are exited to its success. senior officials of the two sides held discussions to review the six-month-old agreement. the u.s. said they discussed steps china is taking including greater protection for intellectual property. bay ying a long way off meeting its promised increase purchases of u.s. goods. president trump has officially been nominated at the republican candidate for the white house. the president and his supporters used the first night of the party's national convention to defend his response to the pandemic. the administration has been criticized for failing to do more to combat the virus which has killed more than 177,000 americans. israel's coalition has narrowly averted collapse after its lead partners agreed to extend thed my night deadline for approving the national budget. they hadn't pushed the time limit, israel would have faced its fourth election in 18 months. and after hitting the caribbean, tropical storm laura is poised to become a powerful hurricane.
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it's due to make landfall on the u.s. gulf coast thursday. an alert has been issued in parts of texas and louisiana. another storm, marco, has lost so much power it weak tond a tropical depression. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this morning is all about the fed this week. manus: it is all about the fed. all about -- the risk is for disappointment. did you get the size of the contract yet? annmarie: 56 pounds for a bushel. we're lucky here we have a resident queen of the charts who is all over the corn trade. manus: she's all over the corn contracts. she didn't know the size of a bushel. of a contract. right. shoutout to the queen of tcharts.
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queen of charts, producer of this show, alex. markets are higher. we're seeing a top heavy s&p. pup .4%. we're priped for a correction because annmarie, there's not enough market breadth. apple moved by 49% over the last couple of months and the rest just 4%. that's concern for morgan stanley. annmarie: the stock market is having a party but what about the economy? the disconnection, the fact that we continuously see it. one thingal this morning, pimco saying gold is cheap and has a lot more breadth to rally to theup side. manus: yeah. possibly. let's get to a conversation, you reminded me, the feds' response to the pandemic help stabilize the markets? low rates creating a bubble, that's the situation according to leon cooperman.
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he spoke to bloomberg about zero rates, and how that's impacting the u.s. economy. take a listen. leon: they have created a real speculative bubble in my opinion. i have to admit that i'm uncomfortable at the present time because -- not because of the virus, it's a factor, i'm uncomfortable because i'm focused on something the markets are focused on the amount of debt being created who pays for the party when the party is over? we celebrated our 244th birthday and basically it took us 244 years to go from zero national debt to $21 trillion. we'll probably end this year at $27 trillion. that's a growth rate in debt far in excess of what the economy is growing at. i think that's going to be a problem down the road. i think they've created a real speculative environment. i was just looking, give you some statistics. apple announced a four for one split on july 30. the 20-day average call volume
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at that time was 721,000 calls. ok. is past friday, apple traded 2.1 million call, three times the average of 20 days, ok. and the stock is up 17% since the announce ofment the split, that's before this morning. tesla announced their five-for-one split august 11. saping thing. big increase in kohl volume. the stock is up 41% since the stock split was announced. now the last time i checked if somebody gave me five singles for a $5 bill it didn't create wealth. that does not create wealth. >> that was the old coollation. this is the new calculation, you've got a big component of robin hood investors. that's one theory out there. what's riskier right now the high flying stocks or bonds? >> no question that bonds to me present a return-free risk. that's what's working in favor of the stock market.
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what i have not fully appreciated is the -- what a zero interest rate environment does for stocks. i was focused on the fact that we've had zero interest rates in japan and europe and their stocks are five or six points below the united states mark. i think low interest rates are indicative to have a problem economy. we've had support for the economy since 2008. 13 years. and i don't look at that as being a positive. i look at that as positive being a negative. your steven ratner close to mike bloomberg who i have enormous respect for, wrote an article this morning, the economic recovery that isn't. you know. >> well -- >> i think it's creating a very speculative tone to the market. i've said for months now that we're really dealing with three markets. not one market. first market is the fang market
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and frankly these are very fine companies. these technology companies whose demand has been pulled forward by at least five years due to the virus. they're not cheap but by -- historical standards and the nifty fifity of 1972 and the technology bubble of 2000, they're not in any way expensive. and people could conjure up whatever they want to conjure up. annmarie: that was leon cooperman, omega family office chairman and c.e.o. he's talking about three market, one being the fang market. i think you've seen this exceptional stunning rise in apple. it's trading at the highest percentage premium since november, 2007, and of course the freeze on the block when apple shakes its tree everyone feels it. the dow we now have exxon leaving the dow. making way for others like cloud computing companies. manus: look.
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this is the risk isn't it though? the market breadth. even i wasn't around in 1972 that leon refers to. he doesn't say the valuations are stretched. apple up for the fifth day in a row. rgan stanley at -- $520 from $431. ok. that is the apple phenomena. need a new phone. coming up, the year of the day trader. we take a look at the urge in retail investments around the world. right here. this is bloomberg. ♪
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i know david portnoy has a lot of noise there. how substantial is this surge of retail enthusiasm around the world? >> good morning. i would point you first to china where we have seen 2.4 million new brokerage accounts opened in july alone that adds to a 6.5% surge of new accounts so far this year. the most since that bubble back in 2015. 2016. this is indicative of really the global surge in retail traders we were seeing around the world. i mentioned china. i could mention the u.k. where harrgraves seeing new accounts. even the old guard in the u.s., schwab, t.d. ameritrade, say they've seen new accounts. india, a dramatic surge in retail volume in asian stocks. dramatic and having an impact on marks more broadly. as we look across the globe uys.
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manus: what do we know about where the money is going? good morning, simone. simone: it's going out of bank accounts particularly in places where we're seeing negative real interest rates like turkey and it's going into stocks that are high volatility, low profitability and they're cheap. that's according to some analysis done by bloomberg in intelligence. ened you can see this impact when you look not just in the u.s. and the u.k. but also in places like japan, like china, where we have seen a surge in end cease that have high tech names and also small tap names, far outperforming their overall country benchmark. manus: ok. we'll keep an eye on those daily day traders and of course robin hood traders. that's it from annmarie and myself. day break europe, european
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