they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music) >> you are seeing a lot of divergence within the market. >> there's a disconnect between what is happening in public equity markets and what is happening on the ground. >> the stock market doesn't reflect the real economy. main street is dragging. >> the pace will probably slow down now that we had this quick rebound. >> we've got less supply and we got demand being stimulated, and that imbalance should lead to higher prices. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. it is a simulcast, bloomberg

radio and bloomberg television across this nation. it is not a usual august. it is highly unusual, different from 1998. certainly some of these trends are draw dropping -- are jaw-dropping. bonds participate. it is decidedly risk on. lisa: although you have to say, when you got a 10 year yield below 1%, to say it is a decidedly different tone with yields going up indicates just where we are in this cycle. i will say, also important to note that is yields rise, bond prices down, you are seeing real yields remain deeply negative. tom: deeply negative and plunging right now. -1.00s the right word, at and now at -1.03 on the u.s. ten-year. that is a really extraordinary drop. saw,own near the lows we but this will be a huge theme. what will you listen for from

chairman powell on thursday? lisa: basically, how much they are going to keep yields low and how much they perceive themselves looking at the reality of the economy today. i really think it is important to note that even as yields move up, they are not moving up as quickly as inflation expectations. again, speaking to the fed's control and influence over the markets. tom: greg valliere publishing moments ago, really talking about powell setting up a new theoretical path for the fed to force higher inflation. at least, that is the hope and prayer. upures up 14, dow futures 190. higher, 10 year yield by three basis points off of the inflation-adjusted yield. the 10 year piece down to -1.03.

that gets my attention, as does weaker dollar. $1.1818.ar, there are two kinds of technical analysis, which by the way, really works on bloomberg radio as we say good morning to all of you. one of them the movement, the spikes trying to catch the knife in the dark. the other is trend based analysis. anybody that knows my work over the years knows i am totally and completely in the trend based camp, as does christopher ferrone, the fabulous technical analyst at strategic us -- at strategic us -- at strategas. support and resistance is the trend right now. what is the equity market trend now? are we breaking out of resistance to new higher levels?

christohper: i think that is clear, but what is less clear and arguably more important is under the surface, we continue to see signs that participation is getting broader. we see the output of industrials, improvement in discretionary. these are groups that have largely been laggards for two and a half years that are starting to showcase some sort of relative strength. that is welcome. i think it reflect a broadening of leadership, and that is something i think most participants have been craving. tom: this work is absolutely foundational, trend based analysis. those eight stocks are going up. we know who they are, the digital dominants. for everything else to improve and go up, do they do it on an absolute basis, or do they simply have to do it relative to a stable or even advancing tech group? christohper: i think they have to do it on a relative basis. i will give you a couple of

examples. when you look at transportation, we look at transport to utilities as a barometer for cyclicality. if transports have under performed, that has this i simply changed. we see with the broader industrial sector, yesterday consumer discretionary flipped positive in our trend model, so all of the things that would support the idea that participation, particularly in relative terms, all of the things you would want to see on that front are happening. i'm surprised to hear you say this because we hear from morgan stanley's chief equity strategist that he thinks we are going to see a potential selloff if we get this ongoing optimism in the economy, saying that because of how narrow the leadership has, it makes this rally fragile. what are you seeing that he is not? christohper: i think what is

most important, and this is the focus of our work for the last number of weeks, is that the leadership tone of the equity market we think is telling us that you should expect a positive economic surprised in the back half of the year. we can't think of any other reason why things like industrials and discretionary and materials and transport be acting as well as they are here. frankly, that is pretty consistent with what you would expect to see in the first several months of a new economic cycle. i think the market is telling us the consensus is probably still too pessimistic about the trajectory of the economy from here. lisa: i wonder about fundamental analysis at a time when asked by is the latest company to withdraw any prediction for how their business would do for the rest of this year. be at arate can traders time of such limited visibility? isistohper: i would posit, this really different from any other moment in history? it is easy to say yes, but are

with argue -- but i would argue it is not. that's investing. i don't think this is as unique as the consensus wanted to be. i think what you have seen historically is markets discount future improvement. i don't think the market it's describing the economy today. i think the market is describing the economy in front of us, and i think it is stronger than what the incentives expect. tom: i use a fancy moving average study out of nevada. chris verrone, i look at the trend base and it is extremely well behaved, extremely well contained. can you extrapolate to a target? if so, how far out can you go with enthusiasm? christohper: the only targets we care about are higher or lower. i think the trend is up here. when trends are positive, you

buy weakness. it's been five or six months since we had anything more than a 5% or 6% drawdown. we may get something like that over the next several months, but how do we want to treat weakness? we want to be buyers of what when trend is up, and i think that is still the base case here. tom: which sector has the best relative value? i want to buy the dip in amazon. the banks are unloved. which is the sector where you get the pop off of everything else? christohper: i think industrials are emerging as multiyear leaders. they have been in purgatory for the better part of the last half decade. i think that has changed in a meaningful way. i would encourage everyone to look at an equal weighted industrial sector relative to the s&p. this is the real deal. this is the start of meaningful leadership in that group. lisa: let's say yields rise. at what level do they have to rise to to potentially disrupt your theory and you see a rise

in stocks? christohper: this is the point in a new economic cycle where you would expect to see yields start to rise. i think the fact that they haven't is adding more fuel to this cyclical bias that has started to emerge. in many respect, go back to mid-2018, lake 2018. bond yields were 3%, cyclicality was starting to peek, chinese stocks were rolling over. all of the exact opposite trends are playing out right now, though i think there is runway before you could say yields are a big problem to disrupting the story. i don't know whether it is 90 basis points, 100 basis ends, but i think it is higher than what it is right now. tom: i'm glad you got support and i knowance, resistance is the problem child. what is extraordinary about this , and i go back to stuart kaiser of ubs, is the idea of the cash

on the sideline. i think that is something we've really got to leon near into labor day -- to lean on here into labor day. lisa: some people pointing to that is a potential myth, the idea of how many for putting in cash like funds. like a triple leverage cash fund, or just putting it in a mattress. tom: it is comfortable, but you mentioned the money market funds almost getting support off of that low yield. lisa: the idea is some of the fund managers are suspending fees for money market funds to avoid having an effective shows the pressure that money market funds are on. even afterthought, that is what , so who'syour child the problem child there? tom: and thank you for all of the emails we have received on this great national conundrum of back to school. it is interesting to talk to the congressman of arkansas about the challenges, like what you do about the college level, and in

the south as well. it goes down to nursery schools and all of that. it is a huge national issue. lisa: yesterday, zoom had some problems, and i was on the front lines of that because my child went back to school. zoom went down, and it was a crisis. it just shows how changed this moment is, when a zoom slowdown disrupts for an entire nation -- disrupts school for an entire nation. tom: we didn't find the zoom experiment successful because the kids are sneaking minecraft and all of this garbage while they are at "school." lisa: we are all living that. tom: i thought it was just my house, but it was proven that that was not the case. doing a data check here on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. i don't do it as nicely as karen moskow. a massive difference today as yields participate with a three p move in the 10 year -- a

threepeat move in the 10 year. downr weaker, and gold the ounce. this is "surveillance." ritika: president trump and speakers at the republican national convention put a positive spin on his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. the president thanked frontline responders and said the virus is going to be fading, and others warned what happen if joe biden is elected. >> there's more work to do, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. job gains are outpacing with the so-called experts expected, but biden's radical left-wing policies would stop our economic recovery cold. he's already talking about

shutting the country down again. it's madness. ritika: a procession of speakers set out to counter the of thets' portrayal president has and competent. incompetent.ent as trade is one of the rare areas of cooperation between the world slug just economy's. still, china is far behind its promises to purchase his of american farm, energy, and manufactured goods. then mobil is out in biggest reshuffling of the dow jones industrial average in seven years. pfizer and raytheon have also been booted in a signal that tech companies have gained even more dominance. the actions were propped it when apple announced a stock split. that reduced to the sway of computer and software companies and the price to down bridge. groupnaire jack ma's aunt

-- billionaire jack ma's ant group has prepared for an ipo. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

left-wing radical policies would stop our economy:

-- our economy cold. >> law & order is on the ballot. >> when it comes to what joe biden says he'll do, look at his actions. look at his policies. >> joe biden and the democrats are still blaming america first. donald has always put america first. tom: day one of the republican national convention, very interesting. kevin cirilli saying clearly, the first lady taking the high ground tonight, but others speaking as well, including a widely anticipated speech by the secretary of state. right now, it is a great joy to speak to terry haines, pangaea policy. he is really stuck doing war duty out in western maryland. this is not tomorrow -- this is

not baltimore. if you go past hagerstown, it is some of the most gorgeous country in this nation. ines joins us this morning. the difference to baltimore is the space between the republican and the democratic party. how does mr. trump stretch that space? how does he get east of hagerstown more towards the suburb voters that he needs? terry: i think two ways. one, you are absolutely right about the chasm between hagerstown and baltimore. one, he excites his base. he tells a story. one of the great things about conventions is they are rare opportunities for a candidate in a party to tell an unfiltered story. that is what the democrats did last week, but the republicans are doing this week. ofreminds people

accomplishments. he contextualizes that. then that is the positive message. they negative message is he differentiates very strongly from what democrats might prefer. to reach beyond the base and get the independents is actually an opportunity for trump right now. there was a recent poll highlighted by the axios site that showed only 32% of independents had a positive view of biden, so that is fertile ground for trump to really start hammering in that the economy is at stake, that law & order is at stake, those sorts of things. you appeal to people's most basic instincts, hopes and fears, and you tell that story free of nuance, and you can get there. unique 2020,his how is this law & order message different from richard nixon a

long time ago? terry: broadly, it is frankly similar. it appealed to the most likely voters. this is an election that is already substantially tightened. the idea that biden is running away with it is left months news. people like to talk about the national average. in the battleground states, it is about four. it is barely above the margin of error, and we are two months away from the election. he could hammer on that and appeal to people's pocketbooks and their most basic desires and fears about security, and he can continue to eat into what remains of a biden lead. lisa: it was interesting to me when i was looking at your notes that you think president trump has a 60% chance of reelection.

that does not seem to be the consensus. how much pushback do you get to that? terry: i get pushback about that all the time. i would say two things. tightening,already moving in that direction. secondly, the last thing that olds are pretty -- last thing is that polls are predictive. thirdly, these look at the wrong things, frankly. they are looking by and large at national snapshots of registered are alreadythey tightening. what you will start to see is more attention paid to state-by-state races of likely voters, and there's a huge disparity between registered and likely. that will mean the race tightens even further and trump wins. turn out here is going to make all the difference, and frankly, trump counts and enthusiasm

advantage, but that enthusiasm advantage israel come -- real, and it is going to be hard for democrats to make that. lisa: it is clear that if there is an increase in tensions between the u.s. and china that is broadly viewed as a market negative. what is president trump's policy that we may hear from secretary of state mike pao tonight, especially given the easing and some of the tensions -- mike pompeo tonight, especially given the easing in some of the tensions with china? terry: we've wasted two decades on hoping china would grow up and become a mature member of the community of nations and take the wto obligations and others seriously. we are clearly past that. trump stood up to that. obama and biden were responsible

for a decade of that. the other thing is that markets missed to some extent, they tend to think that one that bad thing is happening, that means all bad things are increased. i don't think that is true. it remains in the mutual interest to continue to trade and continue to say positive things about phase one, even as tensions are on the rise between the new nation and other geopolitical matters. remains in the mutual interest of these two countries to trade. they will continue to do that continue to say positive things about phase one. tom: terry haines, thank you so much. certainly we saw that this morning, a little bit of trade news giving us more enthusiasm. up 168, s&p futures up one point 13 as well.

it is going to be fascinating to see how the campaigns adjust for the next five to seven days after the republicans end. lisa: again, the world by zoom, the world by video. how can you maintain the enthusiasm to get people out to vote if you don't have the clapping and the commodity -- and the camaraderie? lisa: and that is the -- tom: and that is the president's distinction, he is not doing zoom. our special coverage tonight. david westin, republican national convention. look for that at 10:00 p.m. tonight on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. look at the dollar here. dollar weaker fractionally. i'm watching turkish lira as well, really buttressed up against 7.40.

please stay with us. it is a simulcast. keene, alsoicz, tom with jon ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning. "bloomberg surveillance." lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jon ferro off, which is a big and beautiful thing. lisa, what you see on the screen of interest? lisa: when you talk about yields higher, that is of interest. i was stunned you are saying it was a good and beautiful thing john was off on vacation. i will tell him that when he comes back so when you harangue -- for going on sabbatical, tom: he is really on sabbatical. he is writing a book about the tie. know if he has the movie rights yet.

ist i thought we would do economic data. the definitive conversation on the day with what will hear from chairman powell. we can do that with james sweeney with credit suisse. james sweeney has turned cautious. i was stunned in his last visit with us how cautious he was on the american economic experiment and we get a brief on what mr. powell needs to do. this is always an important speech. it is widely understood inflation will be the topic. how is a central-bank manufacturer inflation? know they need to continue to supply stimulus to the economy and they have been moving towards this framework review, which is likely to signal a tolerance for overshooting inflation, meaning somewhere north of 2% inflation

would not trigger immediate interest rate responses from the fed. sometimes several years in the future. that is what we expect from them today. cautional, short-term is about the lack of a stimulus bill, persistent high unemployment, risks of inflation staying lower for longer, and i think the fed is focused on all of these risks and i think some people in financial markets are not. we will see as we go through what is said to be a pretty turbulent autumn weather market and economic data could trigger more than just talk from the fed. more action. i give amends credit to blanchard for jumpstarting this conversation. the magnitude is different. aivier blanche arden created anchard created a

-- what are they talking about at the fed? 2.05?g it up to james: i think it is in the tens of basis points they would tolerate. i do not think we are talking about 3% or anything like that. energy prices can throw the headline inflation around a lot. i do not think we will see 3% core inflation with the fed rate at close to zero anytime in the future. what they are saying is immediately drifting above 2% will not prompt immediate interest rate increases. lisa: we have been getting inflation. pretty serious inflation. over how muched asset prices have inflation and we see less and less about this from federal reserve officials who dismissed that as part of how to get to a more stable economy. at what point does the fed have to take a look at how much asset prices have increased, and the

lack of any gains we are seeing in the economy from the regime that led to those higher asset prices? james: that's right. it is the lack of attractive yields on fixed income assets has squeezed investors into higher risk assets like equities , and you've ended up with strong equity performance and high valuations. as long as you think inflation risks are to the downside, then the fed will continue to treat ,- continue to signal low rates which it supported for equities. if you look farther out, maybe a day will come where financial stability risks are triggered by these risky assets, or maybe a where equities go up so much some economic event triggers a sharp reversal in the opposite direction, then you have real troubles if you have below average inflation and now

you have an unfriendly equity market instead of a friendly one. the fed is on thin ice, given where the economy is. lisa: there is another way of looking at the story, which is can low yields create more jobs? what is the fed doing with improving a labor backdrop? james: if you look at the housing data, there is a clear channel for job creation from low rates. it runs through low mortgage rates, high housing starts. we have seen some resilience in the housing spectrum. historically housing has been a sector that is quite correlated to fed decisions and where interest rates are. the fed is helping but the economy has a lot of issues and a lot of sectors are not is directly correlated with interest rates as housing. because of that, we still have a very high unemployment rate and it is likely not to be down in the comfortable 4% to 5% for

several years at least. tom: james sweeney with credit suisse. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. a simulcast, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. equities have not moved, bonds moved. the yield breaks out. 1.41% on the 30 year bond. that is a solid five basis point move. higher yields and lower bill note and bond prices. and gold goess -$31, $1931 an ounce. james sweeney, i want to talk about the caution you have. where is the unemployment rate right now? you mention we will never get back to 4%. where are we heading? james: i think this is still pandemic unemployment. there are a lot of businesses where customers are not showing up yet at normal rates.

the labor demand is not there. we are well north of 10% in unemployment. once we get a vaccine, when the pandemic is under better control and people start returning to hotels and airlines and restaurants the more normal way, unemployment will fall sharply. i think there is a lot of damage done and i do not think it will fall all the way to 5% next year, even in a pretty good outcome for the pandemic. it will take a wild to heal this economy. you've been so good at this over last 15 years. you can fold it into wage deflation, the great fear, wage disinflation wage inflation. what is your call on wages given this crazy environment? james: high unemployment cannot be good for wages, but in the wage data there is a lot going on. we have seen a lot of people

taking wage cuts, which normally does not happen during the pandemic. we have seen some wages ratchet lower. in some industries you may be desperate for workers you cannot find and wages may be rising. you see this in consumer prices as well. they increase in variation in prices. in aggregate, if the economy is running at a low level of demand with low gdp and high unemployment, the pressure on wages will be down rather than up and the same for inflation. what you see is the outlook for younger individuals entering the workforce? this has been an increasing area of focus as this area has been hard-hit. entry-level jobs have been destroyed as people stay home. how much will that set this generation back in terms of wages and household creation? is that factoring in to of your

estimates? james: from a long-term perspective, you have to look at those things. some of the literature does suggest losing opportunities in the early stage of your career can be harmful, so you hope people are finding ways to invest in themselves and get more education and things like that to get them on a good track. there is no doubt the opportunities available to new graduates this year are going to ak because of we the pandemic. one of the painful consequences of this. tom: do you see business investment? james: business investment is soft. it is improving from the shutdown period, but it is not great. we are seeing better results in residential investment, which is homebuying, and we are seeing a decent rebound in consumption and consumer spending. business investment, businesses

will have to be cautious while we are still in the pandemic. even though we have very low interest rate, i think businesses will wait for clarity and hope you will have a pickup in investment over the next 12 to 18 months. this is not the time except in a few special sectors. tom: james sweeney, credit suisse chief economist. a cautious view on the american economy. we will see that off of chairman powell speech on thursday. i am taken by the dynamics in the bond market. these are little moves. i understand it is sleepy august, but the bond market is sending signals. lisa: the signal is perhaps things are coming in better than expected. there had been narrative that the resurgence in virus cases was hampering economic growth in the united states substantially inried the high-frequency -- the united states substantially.

the high-frequency data does not bear out the pessimism. this is not necessarily reflected in real yields. real yields near the record lows. deeply negative. tom: that is the idea that the nominal yield has come up and against it are inflation expectations and the real yield is not to record lows, but getting right back, -1.01%. we heard from christopher verrone, the great trend technician, and that is the idea of other things starting to percolate. this market is not just about the faang stocks and the other big stocks, not about the newsmaking of amgen. it is about technology and the follow-on from other industries. verroneone -- mr.

pointing out how consumer discretionary is coming on. you see that with futures up 14. coming up, barry ritholtz will join us and we will look at some of the market mistakes to avoid. stay with us. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. with jon ferro, a simulcast. this is bloomberg surveillance. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. tookdent trump's defenders the stage of the republican national convention. they defended his record and warned what would happen if joe biden is elected president. >> joe biden is good for iran and isis and great for communist china, and a godsend for everyone wants america to apologize, abstain, and abandon our values. donald trump takes a different approach. he is tough on china and he took on isis and won. he tells the world what it needs to hear. presidentanwhile, the

tried to paint a positive picture of his response to the pandemic. he met with front-line workers in the crisis. it is a rare reversal for the food and drug administration. the commissioner has backed off his claim an experimental therapy had provided a dramatic benefit to coronavirus patients. at a press conference with president trump, he had said blood plasma from survivors of the virus could save huge numbers of lives. he now says he misspoke. in kenosha, wisconsin, a second night of violence between police and protesters after a black man was shot by police in an instant caught on video. police fired tear gas to try to diverse crowds. the governor deployed 125 members of the national guard tropical storm laura is set to become a powerful hurricane before making landfall along the northwest u.s. coast. according to the national hurricane center, that will happen late wednesday or early thursday.

the storm is expected to have pers as high as 113 miles hour, threatening oil and natural gas infrastructure. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> an election year after labor day, it really heats up. i do not think the bond and

stock market habit on the radar yet because that is soon to change. it is not only the presidential election that will matter, it is the congressional elections and how we come out of that. good morning. some technical difficulties. we say good morning on our simulcast. to have definitive conversations today. james sweeney just moments ago on what we will hear from chairman powell. for those of you at home just trying to figure out what to do with your pot, whether it is a small pot or a big pot, barry ritholtz has rewritten the definitive essay he and i know from our youth. i want to big -- i want to give credit to capital guardian trust in los angeles and american fund for their iconic study of market timing. they put it behind the marketing

banner of louis the loser, but the bottom line is barry, you have revisited the mother of all issues with -- which is trying to time the market. what is new? barry: so much stuff. you have the run of robinhood traders who are newly created geniuses think they should give out the secrets to the markets. you have the fastest ever selloff which made people go a, and, put a, should the fastest ever recoveries, having people say if only i had bought at the bottom in march. these are the same lasix mistakes we see every time -- the same classic mistake every time the market sees volatility. market, ther of the emotion of the market. you and i know the mathematics is wildly asymmetrical, and the great mistake is a study of

reentry into the stock market. how do you best reenter? barry: there are a couple of ways to do it. the simplest way to reenter the market, if you want to try to be one of those people who are catching the bottom, is to say i probably am not going to know when the bottom is there, and when it is the last thing i will want to do is put money in the stock market. the simple way is to say the market drops 30%, i'm going to leg in one third of my bear cash. the market ends up down 40%, there is another 10%. the market goes down 50%, that is when you can really get aggressive. go through history. you have to work hard to find a down 50% broad market that was not a great entry point. 1932,assic examples are where japan after the first cut but those are89,

the outliers that prove the case. the reality is the vast majority of traders and investors will not have the discipline and will not have the ability to say i will get back in. they panicked out and they miss the window on the bottom, which is why market timing is so unsuccessful. lisa: you are speaking a different language than a lot of the traders out there, who are seeing their friends sign up for robinhood or whatever account they have and they are getting rich quick. they are riding the federal reserve's largess and they are doing well. they want to keep doing really well. why can't they just continue to follow the fed and get rich? barry: they can, until the market reverses. how did these traders do in the end of february and march? the answer is they were not locked down yet, they were not bored, they were not missing casinos and sports gambling, so that is what a lot of these

traders are using as a form of entertainment. the same questions were asked in the late 1990's and we saw the same thing in the mid 60's. if you not fully invested, if you are not long the hot stocks of the day, whether it was the nifty 50's in the 1960's or the faang stocks today, you are missing out, and you can throw in tesla and other names with that. the question is how these people do over an extended cycle, not just the fat part of the up cycle, which is what we've been experiencing since april. no the math -- you and i know the mathematics of this. you can market time and be successful, but there is always big -- there is always one big move. the cost of missing that one big move absolutely destroys your alpha. robert kirby was legendary on this. if you try to be spx by 200

basis points over 20 years, if you miss one or two of the big moves up, you're 200 basis points evaporates, doesn't it? barry: it is even worse than that. two of the guys in my office have done research that shows the biggest moves up and down all tend to come bunched together. they tend to come very close. if you are and timed it perfectly, you have to be ready to jump in before the next 3% or 4% up move. they all have very sequentially. you miss one or two of those days, you completely defeat the purpose of doing this. it is so much harder and so much more challenging than people realize because they see down 34%, i wish i would sidestep that. up almost 50%. it is far more difficult. tom: thank you so much. this is a superb essay. i will send it out on twitter.

barry ritholtz writing for bloomberg opinion of his podcast is definitive. we have a problem. we have a major problem. nds and a guy in muni bo his tweet. on's high school starts the school year with online classes and he shares dad's office, he also gets to spend his mornings listening to lisa abramowicz and tom keene." that is child abuse, isn't it? lisa: i was going to say i would have to tell my kids about that and they will put in a petition for a muni bond fund. tom: is a window into what everyone is dealing with. if you have three kids do need four computers in the house? lisa: is another world. my younger son beginning zoom classes. people arguing with each other,

photobombing each other, coming up with distractions for their teachers so they can play minecraft. it is another world. tom: we appreciate your social media effort and your many emails to us. lisa gets all the love notes, and i am a pro at receiving email. lisa: love notes? bond yields. my love is expressed in yield. tom: in basis points. that explains that. dow: dow futures -- tom: futures up 158. it is extraordinary the shift in yields. 0.70 on the 10 year yield. that is a stunning move off of where we were friday and into monday. our curve steepening this morning. the real yield will be on this weekend. they are in negotiations to see who is fit enough to replace jon

ferro with the real yield, -1.00%. radio, an important interview on inflation. stay with us. thanks to our team. this is a simulcast. this is bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay?

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taylor: from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am taylor riggs in for jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. 30 minutes until the opening bell. more record highs yesterday. another day, another record high. the s&p 500 closing above 3400 for the first time yesterday. it continues. today we are doing it without tech, which is giving us some relief as concerns about the narrowness continue to climb, and then the 10 year, we are now up to about 70 basis points on the 10 year, the highest in 10 days. we begin with the big issue. stops continuing to push -- stocks continuing to push higher despite concerns over the rallies breadth. stuart keiser saying investors are buying into the hope. >> there is a lot of optimism priced into the fed, the

election, as w