with heightened geopolitical risk and uncertainty around the virus, it has safe haven yield. we did have china as the preferred area. saw, we huge rally we went neutral on that and we are looking more toward areas that we think have more upside. india, singapore are interesting places. india particularly is looking somewhat cheaper. they are later in the cycles than us on the coronavirus, places like africa and beyond. romaine: we will continue our conversation with angela mwanza of ups. -- of ubs. the s&p, 3433. interesting move up. we saw some of the narrowness

return back to this market. i guess if you are an investor going long, you have to be happy with what you have seen over the past few days. caroline: down in volume. very much the build up toward labor day. managed to rise 12 points. overall, it seems to be all focused on never-ending buying. out, a: we should point company here, big commerce holding, this just went public at the start of this month. it was up 37% today. this is basically going to be the software behind this e-commerce storefront. big commerce is the beneficiary of this announcement.

taylor: about $88 billion in market cap, showing a pretty big number on the top in bottom line. estimates were about $1.55 billion. decent beat on the bottom line on adjusted aces. earnings-per-share, 1.81 versus $1.09. i continue to shift through some of the earnings. in the meantime, let's get back -- angelamwanza mwanza, from ubs. i am curious, as you recap earnings season, were expectations too low? or you present -- where you pleasantly surprised about the rebound? angela: looking at the results,

they were much better than expected. aggregate s&p 500 index profits much higher. but we do think it was a stimulus from the government behind it. on the back of these results, ubs economists raised our outlook to the s&p 500 towards june of 2021. thates, we do think second-quarter earnings results action andive of fed will continue to see the fed buying those. caroline: it has been great hearing your viewpoints and what you are still seeing from pricing. angela mwanza, private wealth advisor at ubs. more coverage coming up on bloomberg markets: the close. we have been looking at

hurricane laura. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the close." as we paint a picture of record highs on the s&p 500, record highs on the nasdaq. salesforce second-quarter revenue, it was a beat in terms of expectations. a9 billion, they see third-quarter quarter revenue of 5.24 to 5.25.

that -- it wasny high expectations that they did not disappoint. romaine: this is the software company that makes a lot of that design software. net revenue under 13 million. their guidance coming in a little bit light, adjusted eps, a range of $.91 to $.97. the revenue target going forward, 930 to 945 million. you see little bit of weakness in the shares after hours. taylor: shares of nordstrom, recapping where we are in this tough landscape. i think the analyst expectations are in line with about $.37.

total liquidity of $1.3 billion. they have improved the margins. sales are coming in line with the company's expectation. they have shifted from the second quarter two the third quarter. in hopes of recouping some of the customers, getting them back to the stores. we need to talk about the weather. it is expected to hit the texas and louisiana coast. temporarilythey are suspending operations. this will be the first time america's largest export facility has shut down for a storm. i want to bring in brian, our

local weather expert. he is so much more than that. he is brian sullivan. tell us what we are seeing in terms of this approaching. brian: laura is going to turn into the first major hurricane of the season. a major hurricane is anything over category three. once you get over a category three, you are talking about the a-team. this hurricane is aiming at so much of the u.s. energy infrastructure. the lnge sabine pass, terminals, the refineries, as well as going through the offshore rigs and platforms, many of which have been shut down. caroline: can you spell out how much has been infected? the natural gas production in the gulf has been shut down. since fracking, the gulf is not

quite as important as it was in previous years. but this is a lot. it is the most i can remember in the last few years. romaine: we talk about the track of this, we talk about some of the oil producers shutting down, preparing. is there a general sense that the hurricane itself could cause any sort of lasting damage to the energy infrastructure? the biggest danger would be for the onshore part of it. the offshore guys, they will start coming back over the weekend. probably by next monday, they will be almost 100% back. the onshore, if there is a lot of storm surge, a lot of flooding, you can have problems with the physical infrastructure of these refineries. one disaster analyst suggests

that 10% of the refining capacity could be knocked out for weeks if not months in a worst-case scenario. taylor: it is august. we know we are kicking off hurricane season. what have you noticed so far? there's been a record number of storms so far. the early storms usually are not indicative of the rest of the season but the really big storms , the monster storms are coming out of the middle of the atlantic. ,ight now, the middle atlantic the conditions are very conducive for storms. everyone is expecting we will see a cavalcade of storms over the next 6-10 weeks with nothing to stop them. sometimes there is windshear, coldwater and that will stop them. none of those conditions are in

the atlantic. caroline: we are seeing some devastating pictures of what has wreaked havoc already as some of the storms tear through. i am interesting in how much worse the storms are than previous years? brian: it is running at a record pace. the amount of energy the storms have produced is above average but not as high as 2005. that is the year that we had katrina, will not. we actually set a record for the number of storms. in terms of where we are right now, we are ahead of two thousand five's pace. we still have got a few weeks to go. coming into the peak of the season. this is where we should expect the most destructive storms of the year. romaine: do we have any sense of the potential dollar value of damage? brian: it is between about $5

billion in $12 billion. a disaster analyst said if it comes in premature they expect, look for about $5 billion. the closer it gets to houston, the higher the price would be. eyes on the louisiana coast. hurricane laura expected to make landfall on thursday as a category three. just a reminder, for all of our people who do have a bloomberg terminal, you can use the map function to track that storm as well as the other storms out there. let's get over to mark crumpton with the bloomberg first word news. mark: more than half a million people have been ordered to evacuate the gulf coast as laura strengthened into a hurricane that forecasters say could slam

texas and louisiana with ferocious winds, heavy flooding, and the power to push seawater miles in land. bloomberg was told by the energy secretary that the energy industry is prepared. >> huge refineries down there. several other important pieces of our oil and gas infrastructure. we have a specialized office here at the department of energy assistantrected by an secretary who is responsible for our response. we feel that the industry has .een very well prepared the national hurricane center checks that laura could draw energy from warm waters.

first lady melania trump will step into the spotlight at the republican national convention tonight. -- will make the case for the white house rose garden. her speech during the 2016 convention was criticized after it was found to have included passages similar to what michelle obama said during her speech at the 2008 convention. there are new indications that the coronavirus outbreak may be easing in some sun belt states. california reported about 4400 new cases today, well below the 14 day average of more than 7000. arizona was removed today from new york's traveler quarantine list. a member of the year in -- of -- u.s. ambassador accused

opponents of supporting terrorists. secretary of state mike pompeo insisted last week that the u.s. has the legal right to snapback you and sanctions, even though president trump pulled the u.s. out of the nuclear deal with iran. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are very prepared for this hurricane that is moving through the area.

big huge refineries down there. several other important pieces of our oil and gas infrastructure. we have a specialized office at the department of energy that is directed by an assistant secretary. their teams are already evaluating this. we feel that the industry is very well. paired for this type of storm. can todoing all we ensure that we are capable of that immediately following the storm we feel overall that we are very paired at this point, we will just have to watch and wait >> in california, there have been these brown outs, power going out. >> california has a long history

of getting energy policy wrong. you may recall the blackouts, 2001.ownouts from there was an issue where people were manipulating the market. they were manipulating it because of wrong policies. we are seeing some of that replay today california has 100%ed to move to a generation world when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine, electricity is not there. buyoverall strategy is to electricity from the neighboring states. the challenge with that strategy is that when it is hot in california, sometimes it is hot in arizona and nevada. they would like to keep their baseline power and electricity.

so there's nothing to sell to california that leaves positiona in the awful of having to turn off the lights in certain parts of the state to meet their energy needs. avoidingbles, emissions on the one hand, relying on fossil fuels for energy independence. the pew center did a study in june that said 60% of americans were concerned about climate democrats and republicans see this different libor rate -- see this differently. can we have a bipartisan energy policy? >> yes. we are developing policies to make carpet intense fuels like coal even cleaner. we have always had nuclear power for the last 70 years, which is

entirely emissions free. you can do both. freean have an emissions .aseload available they have focused too heavily on renewable power, which you absolutely need in today's world to ensure that you have the energy you need when you need it. trump'sdent administration has done a good amount to increase energy independence in the united states. what is left to be done? what is on your agenda? >> we need to build out energy infrastructure. we have done a great job making ourselves energy independent, relying on newer technologies like horizontal drilling and fracking, which require us to

increase production of resources in the united states. the problem is building up a plan infrastructure to get it to the oceans. it is building export facilities so we can make this oil and gas available to the rest of the world. fuels for theese foreseeable future. caroline: the u.s. energy secretary speaking earlier with our own david westin. some more political news, this time including the golf-gate saga. embattled trade chief looks to be having to fight that little bit harder. we understand that a statement has come out from the irish government talking about the concerns they have about the particular episode. they are waiting for a review from the eu president, saying

that the trade representative is accountable to the commissioner. they said it is clear that hogan breached guidelines when he attended a dinner at a golf club. who has been debating with the u.k. and u.s. over trade policy. rising,oftware space, as you see them managing to leap over what has been some pretty strong estimates from the analysts. they managed to raise full-year guidance. ,aylor: up 5% is toll brothers beating on the top and bottom line margins. huge backlog of $6 billion. more importantly, next quarter deliveries coming in at the high end of estimates. romaine: definitely one of the strong pockets of the market.

in urban,ing on suburban, and everything in between. this is where we dive into the top views and news. we will do it today against the backdrop of firefighters once again idling massive wildfires. we look back again at the city of paradise, california. worst destroyed by the wildfire in state history. now, the plans to protect the town. these horrifying images of the town, absolutely decimated. toear that they are trying rebuild this town. how do you rebuild a tail like this and -- a town like this and do it with a sense of protection that we will not see the town burned down again? a great question and a

potentially sensitive one. right now, paradise is very much in the process of rebuilding. homesis about 400 new sitting on the landscape. the vast majority are these burned-out shells of the homes that disappeared in that fire. makes its way back into existence, so to speak, there is this really interesting plan from leaders in the area as well as the nature conservancy to suggest a greenbelt, essentially parkland replacing what used to be residential properties all around the perimeter of the community, to basically provide the equivalent of what they call in the fire world defensible space. caroline: green buffers.

how far along is the plan? earlyis really in the planning stages. there are a couple of parcels that have been acquired already. the parks district is in the process of having some other conversations. is the chancere to produce the findings of some scientific models. specifically how turning these old homes, or what used to be helms green can really reduce wildfire risk. basically, you are reducing the kind of vegetation that gets so dry that it easily burns. taylor: so fascinating. thank you to bloomberg citylab reporter, laura bliss. that is it for me. i am out of here.

that is it for "bloomberg markets: the close." "what'd you miss?" is next. ♪

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♪ caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. joe: i am joe weisenthal. romaine: three days, three record highs. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: investors art of data are divided on whether inflation is on the way back or if it is not? the threatndering if

of covid-19 has put economies on course for rising prices the likes of which they have not seen in decades. gold being bid up. side, deflation rather than overheating, some feel. trade rivalries, unemployment benefits, and everyone has an interest in the outcome. remembers theer great financial crisis period, lots of predictions of inflation which of course did not really come to pass. they are all back and they all point to charts like this. this is a change of the money supply. this time, it has got to happen. all this new, money happening. we have got to see a price rise. nonetheless, people look at this and say, this time we will get

it. romaine: they failed to look at the m2 money velocity, the amount of times that money actually changes hands. there is argument that this actually has a bigger impact on inflation. this never really recovered. when a lot of people start to scratch their heads, a lot of people will point to this chart right here. let's bring in political economy editor in washington. todayve a great piece out , sort of examining this debate. before we get to the pro and con evidence, what are the stakes? why is this such a crucial question? stakes, even in the next couple of years, are superhigh. right now, the thinking that

everyone is running an economy. a massive hole that is blown in pretty much every economy in the world. it is kind of pin the consensus that it is the right thing to do. but if what they have thrown at it starts to gin up a little bit of inflation, then i think you will see some much more serious pushback. course, it run, of would mean the reversal of a 30, 40 year long cycle. caroline: how does culture fit into all of this? we know the inner turmoil that the ecb finds itself in. now i feel that everyone is looking more at japan. what do you think the u.s. in

particular, the federal reserve is currently debating? are they more worried about japan or inflation? ben: they seem to be more worried about japan. their focus seems to be on the deflationary risks the virus has thrown us. what the japan example shows is that the central banks can do what they can do what you need an arsenal to fight this stuff beyond just central bank policy. the government's fiscal policy. it happened in other countries, too. of the main arguments of the money supply folks. i think those people would argue, not only central banks creating more money but a higher powers type of money because it

is being done by fiscal authorities and central banks working in harmony. that does carry a high risk of pushing prices up eventually. romaine: when we talk about pushing prices up, you look at the demand-side of the equation. what really did not seem to materialize in the years leading up to this current recession we are in. i'm curious, if we do see a significant rebound, what evidence is there that companies would actually have that pricing not reallythey did seem to have in the past few months? ben: i think there is evidence that companies have pricing power to the extent that market power has become more concentrated than he used to be. if demand was there, than the companies would have market

power to raise prices? on the demand-side, the rule of thumb that policymakers have used says that there has got to be some kind of connection between the labor market and inflation. thisn on just how strong connection is. when unemployment was coming down, he did not seem to produce any inflation. if there is any connection at all, it seems crazy to be worried about inflation now when u.s. unemployment is 10%. thatyou mentioned to perhaps one reason to expect a more inflationary outcome is because of governor -- government's willingness to deploy more money in the form of fiscal firepower. in the u.s., the cares act is already but he much expired. the unemployment expansion has

lapsed and there is not much urgency to replace it. is there a danger of getting ahead of ourselves in thinking there is more appetite to spend money than politically there is? ben: if you want to talk about danger, real danger of fiscal policy. they did that in the aftermath of 2008. think what you say is completely right. people who say that this new injection of fiscal money will create inflation, but a lot of recent history and a lot of what politicians themselves say and how they talk about deficits and

debt say that they want. more focused on austerity. concerns about deficits and debt. vostro obviously, a great debate. a lot of money riding on that debate. a lot of bets in the market on the direction of inflation. ben holland has a great story breaking down some of the key arguments. we are going to continue this debate right here on this program. the big inflation debate. a little bit more focus on the fed come on rates come on the dollars. we will be speaking with stephen englander. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: welcome back to "what'd

you miss?" it is the great inflation debate. joe, you can't leave the fed out this inflation target and the inflation target out of this conversation. joe: we have jackson hole this week. a lot of questions about is the fed going to adopt a different strategy this time around, a greater willingness to tolerate higher inflation going forward. brakes so fast as they did last crisis. caroline: they can say they will allow inflation to run hot, but let aloneus to hot, further past it in this debate? joe: this really is the key chart. the white line is annual inflation rate. areaimes, it gets into the

where the fed wants it. that, what is a goal is to fecteau seen as a ceiling. they often under shoot. the question, if they were to revise their language, not even what we actually start to hit our target and what we get superior economic outcomes? this is sort of a key question of this framework review. romaine: we saw the market reaction last week. there is a market expectation that you will get a little bit more clarity here. but we have also seen quite a few strategists this morning come out and say the market might be expecting a little bit too much. and, there is the whole issue

that a lot of folks in the fed are not really in agreement about where they should really go. joe: for more on this, we want to bring in steve englander, the global head of fx research at standard chartered. does adopt may be something more symmetrical, a willingness to overshoot on inflation like they have not done in the past, does it meaningfully improve the expected economic outcome? it improves it a bit. the fed is out of tools at this stage. ist they are trying to do add a tool that would, by those ratesu would push real even lower than they are right now. it would be somewhat effective.

if they could accomplish everything they wanted, it would probably not fix everything but it would contribute. caroline: expectations going higher, is that all you need? will it ever get above 2%, run out? steven: i think it is possible. there are a lot of structural factors pushing in both directions. i think that the companies winning out tend to have high economies of scale. upthey don't have to push their prices. they can push them down. hand, and we are sort of seeing this already, retail sales are through the moon in the u.s. so there is a lot of spending, but we don't have the production. the imbalance between supply and demand is ok for six months or a

year, but it is not ok for two or three years. what do you make of the argument that maybe the fed is focusing too much on inflation, not enough on the labor market and other metrics that might the a better real-time indicator of where monetary policy should go? steven: labor markets are pretty real-time. they were very accurate in march and april. they have been telling us that there are some improvements. what there is better that you can count on, that is reliable in real-time. what will be more important over the next several years for past of inflation and the dollar, maybe implement exam foreign guidance, or is it going

to be about whether this administration or the next one is willing to step on the fiscal gas pedal in a way that we have not seen in the past. both, but in a slightly different way then you put it. assets,nt of dollar dollar liabilities being thrown into the world, are enormous. a think it will lead to dollar depreciation. that is probably going to import some inflation into the u.s. the other part is the question policy encourages demand or encourages supply? caroline: i think we have had some technical difficulties with steven englander. just lost him at that moment when he was talking about physical versus monetary and the

impact on the dollar. standard chartered global head of fx research. romaine: coming up, we will talk about the pandemic. peoplerea of life for around the globe. we will have a great cast, a professor and author, he has written a lot about how the future will be shaped the pandemic and technology and everything else. we'll be back in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

♪ to oure: welcome back great inflation debate. i size story that caught my attention, that really spoke to the lack of inflation pressure that will come from the labor market going forward. record highs on the nasdaq, the s and p. sarah ponczek has a great piece about the companies doing well.

it is the companies that are technologically advanced, perhaps have fewer people working for them. she points out the value of intangible asset per employee. brand recognition compared to the number of people employed. joe: i think this is a super interesting chart. the companies whose business models really are about i.t. and -- about ip and intangible assets. if those are the companies that are making all the money and doing phenomenally well, you raise the question of can you sort of generate inflation? trend, more about this we want to bring in mauro g uillen. thank you so much for joining us. has the coronavirus crisis just

sort of accelerated a move that we were already going to see but perhaps compressed it into a short period of time where companies are really just going to take more and more share of the economy? see ani think we will acceleration of that trend. network effects are going to a think lead to a concentration of business power. . we shall see what the implications are of that, of course. romaine: we have heard from some ,f the technocrats out there particularly some of those who have talked about universal basic income and some of these other measures. haveact that you will just fewer workers in the future. how we reconcile those two as a

society? wero: in the united states, will see more technological unemployment. distancing,f social automation will be pure than ever before. as universal such basic income 10 years ago is becoming more mainstream. ofoline: talking of the lack inflationary push coming from the labor market, not only is it that machines will take away some of the ability to fight for a higher pay rise, but it might the work from home element that creates so much more competition. they are competing against those in vermont, canada, globally. mauro: remote work, the emergence of a truly global label market.

--never you have trait whenever you have remote work organized on a global basis, you will have winners and losers. the winners will be better educated workers with unique skills. as usual, we will have to do something about those who will lose out in terms of a rise for the global market and remote work. joe: what about politics? what if people say, you know what, i am not crazy about living in a country where so much of the national wealth accrues to eight handful of companies who hardly employ anyone. could this lead to lyrical disruption which somehow sort of changes the political trajectory we take for granted? mauro: yes. thisve seen, even before

pandemic, the rise of populism on the right and left. erosion ofn an democratic practices around the world. this will only get accelerated by the pandemic. our assumption is that inequality is rising. romaine: a lot of us are trying to keep our eyes on where the next big boom is, whether that is in the u.s. or overseas. i took a trip last year over to africa. west africa, senegal. it is absolutely booming over there. i'm curious what you see as sort of the future of sub-saharan africa, whether we have reached a time where it will live up to some of the promises that a lot ned on it.ave pin mauro: africa is already ahead

of global payments. 100 million babies are going to be born in africa and that will generate i think a new revolution in terms of education. using probably were -- using probably remote platforms to a certain extent. i think africa is right now and into the next decade or so one of the most important sources of dynamism in the global economy. caroline: hopefully it will be a time for a silver lining of africa's growth. mauro guillen, the author of "2030: how the world's biggest trends will collide and reshape the future of everything." meanwhile, breaking news from stephen hahn, the commissioner of the fda, facing controversy after it was seen that he

essentially overstated the benefits for a potential therapy for covid-19. he said he would never reverse the decision for political reasons. romaine: we had drew armstrong on. nonpartisanship of that agency is so critical. you are dealing with hard science and you are dealing with people's lives. there is a lot of confusion coming out of the conference they had on sunday. night, iweeted last got that wrong. the criticism of me was right, i was wrong, it was deserved. mistake, a made a great story on the bloomberg written by drew armstrong. technology"berg is next. romaine: this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ emily: welcome to "bloomberg technology." stocks rising to all-time highs for the third straight day. lead in part by facebook. the social network unveiling a new set of tools designed to expand shopping on its platform. it is all part of facebook's broader push to capitalize on online shopping in the midst of the pandemic. more mar