tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg August 26, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EDT
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hurricane laura nears the u.s. gulf coast. massive activations take lace for fears the storm could drive 30 miles inland, causing massive damage. jobgermany extends -preserving subsidies until 2021, as europe's with this economy recovers from the coronavirus. this as the japanese official warns over a second wave. it has just gone 6:00 a.m. in london, 9:00 a.m. in the difc in dubai. we will spend a lot of time talking about specificity. [laughter] hopefully at got that right. put it to you this way, the end is reallyael well anchored in the u.s.. i see those as being the two risks if there is a lack of specificity. annmarie: you make a good point. it is clearly going to be center
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stage. writes, theper dollar is the guest of honor even if it doesn't want to be. can we see more u.s. dollar unwinding? of course, this is the bond market moment. it comes back to the conversation we had on monday with a great bloomberg businessweek satire speech. they said no, i stuff, jay powell. manus: exactly. in the next running for hours you will see, there are other flankers coming in here. obviously, what is happening in japan. win, ifo abe and trump what willump win, that do to the dollar-yen? we will talk about all of that as you go through the morning. how are asian stocks? annmarie: let's pull of the board. the dollar-yen is up there. jp morgan said it could go to
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100 off the risks. msci asia pacific down softer after another record day on wall street. if you look at emerging markets, they have actually recouped their losses for the year, i know you were interested in that daybreak: middle east. the 10 year yield has gone higher since i walked in, .71%. threshold.y brent crude is up nearly .04%. we are also on hurricane watch as laura is expected to make landfall. than the dollar-yen at 106.4. we will be keeping an eye on that with what is going on into was the japanese prime minister. to the latest republican national convention. millennia trump the headline act on the second day. she used her speech to humanize them a trump and highlight the president's leadership during
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the pandemic. >> my husband's administration will not stop fighting until there is an effective treatment or vaccine available to everyone . donald will not rest until he has done all he can to take care of everyone impacted by this terrible pandemic. annmarie: we also heard from secretary of state mike pompeo on day two of the rnc. he says his decision to speak from jerusalem was on a taxpayer-funded trip abroad has drawn criticism. joining us now on the phone is bloomberg's white house reporter. josh, thanks for joining us, i know it is late. let's start with the first lady's speech. what were the highlights. . >> she was the first one to acknowledge the reality of it in a kind of through the looking glass convention which only passively mentions the pandemic.
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the u.s. poll of the coronavirus pandemic is very high. there are a lot of questions about it, it is weighing on the lls.ident's po she was on a want to say, my condolences with everyone dealing with this, putting a softer lens on the president and acknowledging that, you know, he says what he thinks, that kind of thing. she really broke from the previously what we have had, a run of essentially tributes to the president, many of them addressing him personally. and he is not want to really acknowledge faults in the handling of things. instead he has been saying what a great job has done and people have been ignoring the impact of the virus. that is what stood out. that secretary pompeo speech, that as well as the first ladies speech in the rose garden, president trump has kind of thrown out the notion tot he has been pretending
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separate government and campaigning as is typically the custom in american politics. manus: let's pick up on that, josh. good day to you. pompeo's speech is interesting. the narrative was very much about america first. in the comfort he has brought to many capitals around the world. what was the takeaway for foreign policy from pompeo? josh: his speech was a little bit misleading. cluesne was looking for about what would be coming on china for any new action on china. china,a hawkish tone on he pulled back the curtain on the predatory aggression of the chinese communist party, that they have held china accountable for covering up the china virus, his words. that is frankly not true. blaming china for not notifying the world early enough and not doing enough to contain the spread of the pandemic, but the
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president is avoiding criticizing president xi jinping directly. very early on a kind of a xi ford -- he applauded the pandemic. no news from pompeo's speech other than he wanted to be there. what the currency is showing is the potential successors donald trump. a glimpse at what 2024 could look like. mike pompeo is on the list, nikki haley, too. others as well. manus: ok. let's see what comes through overnight. josh, thank you very much for staying, josh wingrove reporting from the white house. stay tuned for the message from vice president mike pence. our guest host this morning is samy chaar, chief economist at banque lombard year. let's kick off with risk.
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your base line is that risk assets of your expensive and there is only positive news on the monetary or fiscal side that would justify adding to risk. i put it to you, there is a bigger risk of perhaps a rhetoric in policy misstep then perhaps an hour fall for markets. is that a base point to jump off from? good morning. >> good morning. , typically the dollar, the euro-dollar, gold prices and also equity prices are a little bit ahead of our own 6-12 month forecast. it is not that there is a total disconnect between financial assets and our expectations, but moves are extended. so we need a new story to be able to move the momentum of the two bit further. we know the risks. there is a risk around the pandemic, and other risks, but
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one of the main risks here would be this failure to prolong policy support. this is still an economy and job market that needs policy support, so we are asked to me was full of the negotiations between the democrats and republicans in the u.s.. annmarie: what are you expecting tomorrow from powell? our headland question of the day is, what do bond traders fear the most about jackson hole? samy: they need some sort of guidance. if it doesn't happen at jackson hole, it will happen at some point. in big area of focus here for the fed is the inflation policy. target,e the inflation but very clearly, they have been talking about symmetry for a very long period of time. the idea is that as their economy recovers, inflation might recover at some point as well. marketed to prepare
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participants but if inflation creeps above 2% for the first time in over a decade, they will not rush into a tightening monetary condition. this is what is expected as the situation at normalizing is very gradually, what will be the reaction function of the fed? they need to prepare market participants. everyone is trying to avoid a temper tantrum. very clearly, some form of inflation targeting, inflation tolerance is probably what is weekend.during this manus: it is interesting. we see breakevens on the screen at the moment. they are rising. i put it to you this way, the short end of the curve is well anchored. it is the longer end of the curve that needs a very clear message of commitment to this marriage, doesn't it? that is the risk. what does it take to evoke a temper tantrum of the style of
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2013? it is a narrative i have returned to a couple of times. is that a real risk? samy: yes, it is. it is a real risk if they don't communicate properly to market participants. i would use the words of another central banker a couple of years ago, mario draghi and the ecb, it is patience and persistence, but is what they need to communicate now. that they will be patient in normalizing monetary policy. they could always anchor the longer end of the yield curve thanks to juncker control. but we have seen -- thanks to yield curve control. but we have seen in the previous minutes that they are unlikely to do so in the short term. only thanks to communication. what they need is to really reassure market participants that they will not rush into policy normalization improves.icy we need to make sure real rates
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stay relatively well behaved. done of recovery has to be before it eventually they start thinking about raising rates. manus: larry kudlow thinks we are in for a 20% recovery. we can debate that. samy chaar, our guest this morning. your first word news. to germany, they are extending the job aid program that have kept millions of people from unemployment. it was originally intended to last 12 months. now they will be provided until 2021. about 5.6 million people were on the benefits program in july, down from 7 million in may. a third night of unrest in wisconsin. the governor has declared a state of emergency after businesses were vandalized and dozens of buildings set on fire. it was sparked by a police shooting a black man the magic it was sparked by
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the police shooting of a black lake.acob laura is forecast to become a category three storm when it comes ashore on wednesday into thursday. there are a nurse the louisiana closed as winds are expected to hit 120 miles per hour. ,ccording to a disaster modeler it could cause up to $18 billion of damage. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. up, the dollar-yen. unfazedare unmoved and by speculation that japan's prime minister may resign. we have the very latest on the virus reaction from asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. i am annmarie hordern in london with manus cranny into by. traders are watching the yen on speculation that shinzo abe may announce his resignation on friday on health concerns. the country faces a second wave of covid-19 cases larger than the first. doctorsrea has ordered back to work. juliette saly is following the market action in singapore. what are you seeing? juliette: first off, a look at the yen. fx traders are not too perturbed could reports that abe announce his resignation on friday. we heard yesterday from a member
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of the liberal democratic party, essentially say that abe would serve out the full term. we have one week of implied volatility between the yen and the dollar. this is tracking what will happen at jackson hole. looking at this graph, you can see that no drama is expected from traders. worth noting, though, j.p. morgan says that if you say abe resigns and president trump doesn't win the november election, you could see the yen at 100. let's look at market reaction in asia when it comes to equities, it down will coming through today. we have seen japan saying they are considering making social distancing roles more binding. south korea, you mentioned the doctors strike, as well as the discussion of whether or not to go into level three restrictions. they have dismissed rumors that that will be announced today. indonesia will allow every theaters to resume for the first time in five months. we heard yesterday that the
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island will remain closed to tourists. the other thing we have been watching his the reaction in the .uan we heard from mike at the republican convention today's rain that trump just today saying that trump holds china accountable for the coronavirus. annmarie: thank you so much, juliette saly in singapore. sammy shower of banque lombard odier is still with us. you switched the emerging market asia exposure to china and you are introducing yourself to more debt. i am looking at the premium over chinese debt and over u.s. 10 years. where in the chinese credit space would you like to be exposed? samy: the idea first and loanost is to have allocation to china that we can play around with.
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the idea is that china is the second economy of the planet, its financial markets for now are relatively small compared to the u.s.. so eventually they will grow bigger in size. we want to be able to trade around that. to express an active view sometimes of being overweight, sometimes neutral, sometimes underweight. reflect a viewo in assets allocation both in the mixed income space and the equity space, considering the role china has taken over the years and the role it will continue to take in the coming years especially in the context where you have such an opposition between the two powerhouses of the world economy, the u.s. on one hand and china on the other. we want to express both views here. manus: that suddenly chimes with what hsbc are saying in this lower forever environment on the credit side. switch out the dm into em.
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on the equity side, we talk about the performance of the emerging markets. 45%,m equity side, up recovery well in train. is that next leg dependent more on dollar policy, dollar movement and perhaps fiscal policy within em? samy: absolutely. again, em is a very heterogenous part. when we think about em, we mainly think about em asia. the rest of em is geared towards commodity producing, which is not really what we are interested in. what we are interested in here in asia is their ability to be extremely strong on tech. basically that is what has driven china and asia markets upward. also basically what has driven the u.s. markets.
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it is not necessarily a regional trade, more a sector trade around tech. again, we were overweight this schematic, and we expressed it would overweight in the u.s. and asia. we continue to do so despite the moving in stress. manus: samy chaar of banque lombard odier. coming up on the show, germany extends its coronavirus wage support program until the end of 2021. we have the latest on europe's road to recovery. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪
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alongside with anne-marie london.ned in the university of cambridge will begin clinical trials of their dna-based vaccine in autumn. on a similar front, germany is extending the nation's wage subsidies until the end of 2021. the scheme was originally intended to last 12 months, by the government felt an extension was needed to stabilize the economy. samy chaar is our guest host this morning from banque lombard odier. untily extends its aid 2021. there is procrastination perhaps one could say in the u.k. about what is coming next. germany is forging forward. what does this do to the narrative of germany versus the rest of europe? samy: they are getting everything right. germany was in this situation where they were extremely toservative, always savings any problems. we have seen a switch in the
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past couple of months. seems like this pandemic has woken them up. now they are becoming more pro-growth. very clearly, they have identified the fact that this is an economy, even in germany that still needs policy support. let's not wait let's give visibility,ors support and social safety nets will stay in place for the confidence and investment reported. can be best it is extraordinary to see the germans becoming pro-growth, and the americans procrastinating around what is absolutely necessary, which is unemployment benefits. so for now, the germans are getting it right. annmarie: it is very 2020, isn't it? the world is completely flipped on its head. the euro-dollar, you see further upside, is this because of things coming out of germany, extending these fiscal support measures for the labor market, or is this the dollar weakness story? samy: it is actually both.
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once, the hand, for europeans do not appear as the problem child of the world economy. not that they have done everything right managing the theymic, but basically reacted after an initial payment of doubt they reacted swiftly and, limited new fiscal policy. they were a bit bold. the european side of the trade is one that is relatively positive for the euro. as you said, there is also a weak dollar side to it that has two sources. 10 year real rates in the u.s., best it is at its lowest point in history. the u.s. real rates are catching up with the rest. then there is a lot of procrastination on the fiscal front, all of that together, we see the euro-dollar slightly above 120.
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manus: we have had a cracking rally in the euro-dollar and the euro in the process. any sign of exhaustion, vertical or overcrowded trade, briefly? samy: i mean, clearly, fair value is around where it is. it is just an exaggeration. people are pouring into the trade. within the last, say, third of the trade, two-thirds already made, a lot of movement is overdue behind. annmarie: thank you so much. samy chaar at banque lombard odier stays with us. as hurricane laura there is down on key crude refiners in the gulf coast, we hear from the u.s. energy secretary on how the industry is prepared to weather the storm. oil at breaking from a range of $45 a barrel this morning on brent. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in the city of london. manus cranny, live from dubai. these are today's top stories. stocks mixed after the s&p and nasdaq comp is it close at fresh highs. larry kudlow praises the national republican convention even as compared -- consumer confidence plummets. oil holds at a five-month high. hurricane laura nears the u.s. gulf coast.
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massve regulations -- evacuations take place. its job support program and to the end of 2021. europe's biggest economy recovers from the coronavirus crisis. japanese officials warn about a secondly. -- second wave. good morning. we have fiscal support coming out of germany. we have some covid flareups in south korea. obviously, the center stage will be jay powell and what he has to say. edge.uffs on i know you are excited about what this means for taper tantrum. manus: the word that is being used in the stories this morning is specificity. much of average inflation targeting is already in their?
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i wasn't around when volker was in charge. how would he react to this? let's have average inflation target. substantiverly narrative. annmarie: he was a full-fledged inflation warrior. we have a few good pieces of regarding that. this will be what the bond market is focused on. thursday evening, we hear from president donald trump. we could possibly get some other risks from that speech, especially when it comes to china. for the markets, it will be about jay powell. manus: a little bit of a one-liner for you. you are now with me on a full-time basis.
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it will be an interesting and bumpy ride. welcome to the show. good to have you aboard. the markets are also moving. s&p 500 is where we are. i love the piece from citigroup. unbridled underwriting of these markets by the fed. they will do whatever it takes to prevent a drop. have a look at bonds. they wait for jay powell, for the narrative on specificity from jay powell in regards to what's happening. 10 year government bond yields back up. if there's a taper tantrum, would you buy them there? there are rumblings that shinzo abe may be unwell and not be able to continue his tenure. crude comes back to flat. holding, just about five-month highs. onricane laura bearing down
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key refinery units in the u.s. along the gulf coast. it is going to become a category three storm. it threatens to inflict as much as $18 billion in damages. some of america's largest oil refineries shut for month. the u.s. energy secretary says the industry is ready. >> we are very prepared for this hurricane. it is moving into this houston, southwest louisiana area. the houston channel is there. big, huge refineries down there. several other important pieces of our oil and gas infrastructure are down there. we have a specialized office at the department of energy that has directed -- is directed. their teams are already evaluating this. we are working closely with the industry. the industry is well prepared for this type of storm. the president has directed me to
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make available the strategic -- petroleum reserve in instances like this. we are doing all that we can to ensure that we are capable of doing that immediately following the storm. we feel we are very prepared at this point. we will have to watch and wait and see where the storm ends up. >> let's move out to california. there have been brown outs, power going down because it has been very hot. is there a more fundamental problem? >> absolutely. california has a long history of getting energy policy wrong. you may recall the blackouts, brownouts from 2001. back ats a market issue that point in time. people were manipulating the market. they were manipulating it because of the wrong policies that california chose to implement at that time. we are seeing some of that replay today. what california has decided to do is move to a 100% renewable
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energy early. when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine, people want electricity. it isn't there. their overall strategy is to borrow electricity or buy electricity from their neighboring states like arizona and nevada. strategyenge with that is that when it's hot in california, it's also hot in arizona and nevada. they may choose to keep their baseline power and electricity because they would like their hospitals to run and air-conditioning to work. there's nothing to sell to california. that leaves california in the position of having to turn off the lights in certain parts of the state in order to meet their energy needs. >> that takes us to that fundamental fork in the road. renewables and avoiding omissions, relying upon fossil fuels for energy independence. at the same time, the pew center did a study in june and said 60%
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of americans are concerned about climate. it skews towards democrats. they see this very differently. can we have a bipartisan energy policy in this country? >> sure you can. natural gas is a very clean source. we are developing technologies to make it even cleaner. we are developing technologies to make carbon intense fuels like coal even cleaner. we've always had nuclear power, for this -- the last 70 years. it is omissions free. you can do both. you can have a renewable generation base and in omissions free baseload generation available to you. you have to choose to do it. that's what the fundamental problem is in california. they rely too heavily on renewable power like wind and solar. at the exclusion of some of the baseload power, which you need in today's world to ensure that you have the energy that you need when you need it. >> president trump's
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administration has done a fair reinforcetrying to energy independence for the united states, relying on fossil fuels. what is left to be done if you selected for a second term? >> we need to continue to build our infrastructure. as we have discussed in the past, we've done a great job of increasing our production, making ourselves energy independent. likeng on new technologies horizontal fracking. allowing us to increase production of these resources in the united states. our challenge is getting the product to market. it's building a pipeline infrastructure to get it to the oceans, the coastlines. it's building export facilities so we can make this available to the rest of the world. they will continue to use these types of fuels for the for seeable future, perhaps as many as 50 years out. was the u.s.t
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energy secretary speaking to david westin. our guest is still with us. 46 dollars a barrel now on brent. we have been range bound for weeks now. can something like this hurricane really push the price much higher than where we are now? him.nk we've lost thank him for his time throughout the morning. let's get a recap on the other news we are watching with our first word news. the second night of the republican national convention. it was capped by speeches from mike pompeo and first lady melania trump. he sparked controversy for recording his speech during a visit to jerusalem. the state department prohibits political activity on official travel. new york and new jersey are suing donald trump and the postmaster general over major changes to the postal service. they fear the revamp will hinder mail-in voting.
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they allege the white house is trying to undermine the u.s. ps. the president has claimed without evidence that mail-in voting will lead to widespread voter fraud. the president of the un security council has rejected white house demands to restore sanctions on iran. the move was expected. allies had told the u.s. it doesn't have a say in the matter as a pulled out of the nuclear deal in 2018. the u.s. has hit back with its ambassador accusing opponents of supporting terrorist. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. manus. the u.s. energy secretary talking about without signed, without wind. we will talk about southern california, aren't we? manus: we are indeed. this is not surveillance. i will rip up the script. i want you to feel familiar.
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records set to expect u.s. soybean purchases in 2020. this goes back to the narrative we touched on, these are the california fires we will talk about in just a moment. we will come back to that breaking news on the record purchases by china. coming up, the california battling its wildfires. record temperatures, rolling blackouts amid the pandemic. we discussed. this is bloomberg. ♪
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california this year, a 63% jump. donald trump has declared a major disaster. fire officials say favorable weather is helping. devastating pictures. with us to discuss more is our west coast correspondent. what is the latest devastation from these fires? the actors are so saddening. ed: the weather has abated a little. more than 1.2 million acres continue to burn. tens of thousands are evacuated. those that have returned to their homes, many have found them to have been destroyed. the second and third largest fires. looking at my screen, the second-largest one has only been contained 15%. they expect it will continue to burn. , we are only in
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late august. wildfires ison for september through october. the feeling is that it will continue to burn. the state is trying to deploy resources and invest money in training for additional firefighting resources. it will continue to burn. there are any -- economic consequences to any fires. in key counties like napa and sonoma county, the industry is worried that the fire will burden of fines -- burn the vines. the damage will make the harvest unusual. there will be no wine created. it's a must in thinkable. county,ay area, l.a. the services economy is getting back on its feet from the pandemic. a lot of dining is restricted to outdoor. the air quality is so poor in san francisco, consumers are
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staying away at a time when industry and restaurants and other services are desperate to get consumers through the door. the state is under financial pressure. the feeling is that fires will carry on for months. manus: good to see you. thank you for staying up for us. rolling blackouts is an additional thing you have to contend with. how much -- put this in context. california's renewable energy policy. is it to blame for these outages? cannot be attributed -- can that be attributed? ed: the shift to 100% renewable energy is a big task. in california, the state is very dependent on solar energy during the daytime. when the sun goes down, there's no energy generation. there's reliance on wind energy. what is highlighted is an overreliance on renewable sources. something like enough power to
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power 7 million homes from has gone off-line over the last few years. that has been taken out of the grid. we lost one gigawatt of source over the weekend of wind generated energy. that did not help matters. it has raised a bigger structural issue. not energy generation but energy storage. batteries. if you look at what analysts are saying, even our colleagues at bloomberg, it is highlighted that the energy storage capacity in california is simply insufficient. arestates grid operators s tothing like 12 gigawatt meet demand. at present, global energy storage installation is around four gigawatts. we are a long layoff.
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quality makers in california are saying there was an overreliance on renewable and not enough contingency of the grid from those sources of energy in the interview earlier. thanks for joining us. our west coast correspondent. we have breaking news. china expecting a record u.s. soybean purchase in 2020. this is interesting. they are far behind the purchases they need to make in terms of agricultural and energy for the phase one trade deal. manus: yeah. this is the whole point about whether you are doing better. look at some of the data. in terms of what china has bought over the first seven months of this year, 27% of the target under the trade deal. , chinart you have here
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has taken delivery of 12 million tons of soybeans. the question is, what more do they have to do? in 2017.than they did that's the baseline for the trade deal. roughly 10% more than the record set in 2016. it's traveling the right road, isn't it? annmarie: i know you were testing my corn math yesterday. what is is in a bushel, the weight of soybeans? i know the answer. manus: yes i do. 2259.1. last updated on the 13th of august of this year. don't try. don't try that, now. you are trying to show -- you are trying to outflank me, aren't you? annmarie: not at all. no. i knew you would know the answer. we should move along. u.s. consumer confidence has hit
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annmarie: good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. we will focus on the economic recovery with u.s. consumer confidence dropping in august of the lowest since 2014. americans grapple with high unemployment and uncertainty about future federal stimulus. aidw version of jobless started to reach americans. manus: let's flip it over to europe. we will get an update from the french consumer sentiment with the data for the month of august. in the u k, lockdown restrictions on travel, worries
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about the economy. nonfood sales remaining below pre-pandemic levels. mark and spencer's became the latest retail giant to cut jobs. let's get to our bloomberg opinion columnist who joins us now. retail isape for bifurcated in many ways. how does it look to you? >> the big thing is there are so many variations and what is going on in retail. it's not a uniform picture. you've got online doing where he well -- very well. stores affected by lockdowns. unwillingness to go to town centers. you have sex or -- sectors doing well. homes doing well. so the retailers having better-than-expected sales. everyone wants to spruce up their homes. clothing is still very
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depressed. it's a really mixed picture. annmarie: yeah. what about how the situation is in the u.s. compared with europe? i'm guessing the idea that germany will extend their jobless benefits, that could help consumer spending in germany. the u.s. is still on pod. -- paz. -- pause. >> the key thing that affects your spending is jobs. consumers make the biggest changes to their spending when they lose their jobs or when they see other people being made redundant. that will dictate the direction of consumer spending. just how many job losses are coming in and win -- house of your that unemployment is. that's the biggest factor now that will affect consumer spending. wonder, house luxury holding up relative to my kind
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of market? it is further down the value chain. back.ury, asia is coming china is coming back. europe is very depressed. those chinese travelers are staying at home rather than coming to europe. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us. bloomberg opinion columnist, important to talk about retail given the fact we had those consumer numbers hitting a six-year low in the u.s. yesterday. breaking news out of china. there he good news in terms of the trade deal. china set to expect record soybean purchases in 2020. at this pace, they are behind the phase one trade deal. the timing is interesting. we are in the middle of the rnc, aren't we? manus: we are. the wifentation from of the president yesterday evening. mike pompeo chimed in from
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abroad. how do you benchmark this? these are the headlines. we had headlines over the weekend that we are making progress on trade. here we are, soybean sales for next season running at the highest level at this time of the year since 2013. this is all about pushing the narrative, perhaps a political narrative this week. annmarie: yeah. it's interesting. for a while, we saw china shift and buy from brazil because it was cheaper, but now we do see them going in. this is america's heartland. these are the states that president donald trump needs to win. i want to pick up what you said earlier. i'm so excited to be joining you. thank you for the warm welcome. this week has been a blast. manus: good. we will do it all again, every week, every morning. the alarm goes at 2:30 a.m.
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