distill gifts on the market. morgan stanley looks for a weaker dollar. michael mckee will not be having his game day mountain man breakfast at the acclaimed pioneer grail. in this jackson hole, it is a virtual jackson hole. wins the mosta, grievous sins 1851. and a you will not be safe in joe biden's america, so says vice president pence. and a football coach in notre dame says mr. biden is "catholic in name only." good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am tom keene. anna edwards is in for francine lacqua. we appreciate your long day here in "bloomberg surveillance." stimulus in germany, what gets your attention this morning? anna: stimulus in germany is

it. of we have been watching what has been going on on the louisiana coast for the latest headlines on hurricane laura, that has preoccupied people. here in europe, also waiting on the latest developments from jackson hole. just as we see laura weakening to a category three hurricane, although we know they can still linger it still do damage. tom: 120 miles per hour maximum wind, but the landfall of 160 was extraordinary. the shape of the storm has changed as well. with our first word news in new york, here is ritika gupta. ritika: good morning. it is one of the most powerful storms ever to hit louisiana. you were just discussing hurricane laura, it made landfall near cameron, louisiana with maximum winds of 150 miles per hour, plus there is a threat of a catastrophic storm surge and flash flooding. there is concern that damage could leave areas and --

uninhabitable for months. it will also shut down a third of the region's refining capacity. winds have died down but laura is still a category 3 storm. mike pence accepted his party's nomination to be the vice president again. he praised the president and joe biden.d joe >> where we thought for free and fair trade and this president stood up to china and ended the era of economic surrender, joe biden has been a cheerleader for communist china. he wants to repeal all the tariffs leveling the playing field for american workers. and he actually criticized president trump for suspending all travel to china. at the outset of this pandemic. ritika: he spoke from historic fort mchenry in baltimore. a white 17-year-old police admirer is being held, after two people were shot that during

violent protests in kenosha, wisconsin. demonstrators were protesting a police shooting of a black man. the teenager was arrested in illinois, 50 miles from where the shooting took place. more national guard troops were sent to kenosha, and a curfew was imposed. protesters ignored it. the nba started a boycott over police shootings. now it has spread to baseball, soccer and women's basketball. that led to a number of games he canceled. the nba protests could lead to the playoffs being scrapped. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. equities, currencies, commodities. steven major at hsbc with a superb residual note -- the nominal yield was higher 0.701.y,

it is lower today, and expectations continue to advance gradually. you take away the inflation expectations and you come back to a new lower real yield, much lower than yesterday in chairman powell's speech, -1.0548. not a record low but certainly getting there. it has certainly turned to a much lower negative yield. anna: waiting for powell on european equity markets entering into a down drop, just .03%. down.c is inland, one high-profile stock for you, not huge anymore, rolls-royce, engine maker. their share price is down. they are talking about selling

assets and even the possibility of raising equity. they plan to get paid for every hour their engine flies. when they don't fly much, they don't get paid much. the european commission president, ursula von der leyen giving the statement on hogan's resignation as european trade chief. he resigned in the last 24 hours. there hearing from her that man in charge of the finance beat will be taking over. it is a very busy slate of activities for any trade commissioner in europe. that withinto fromrd lacaille state street. him, but think about the amount of workload facing the present comes in. we have the trade deal to strike with the u.s. if that is possible,, brexit trade

negotiations still ongoing, plenty for the new income meant to deal with. anna: richard -- it doesn't seem as if he can hear me. plenty for the incumbent for the new trade commissioner to deal tenseness in the relationship. tom: mr. hogan is widely respected in ireland. he went to a golfing retirement and it broke pandemic groups of people rules, anna. i guess he resigned but under a lot of pressure. comings von der leyen is under some real -- not criticism, but some real

angst about whether domestic politics should play into positioning at the european union. anna: it is interesting, the circumstances that have forced here, resign controversial from the start. he went to this event that he thought had been given clearance to take place, on irish government event. but it is being investigated by the police. he said he had a test and therefore was allowed to break the quarantine rules applying in ireland at the time. so all of this is very controversial. he fought back for quite a while. he apologized and then fought back in domestic tv interviews. but that did not go in his favor at all. a lot of political pressure and ultimately he has fallen. seems like ursula von der leyen has to find a replacement, if she even has one in a short-term, she will need one to take over. later today on "balance of

power" will be talking to wilbur ross, u.s. commerce secretary. his thoughts on who the u.s. deals with in trade on the other side of the atlantic. that will be at 12:00 p.m. in new york and 5:00 p.m. in london this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i have never thought of 2% as a ceiling, but the really stay focused on what anchors in fishing expedition in an economy. so from period medications standpoint, i think we will be talking about -- what anchors inflation expectations in an economy. and inflation

standpoint, i think we are beginning to see signs of a recovery. we are beginning to see where the economy may have shortfalls, where it may be doing ok. .hat is going to take some time so thinking about what those other things are, i think has been a useful discussion. whether it is time to activate those things is something that will be debated. anna: kansas city fed president esther george, speaking to bloomberg ahead of her banks and will jackson hole -- bank's annual jackson hole symposium. no doubt the content will be compelling. let's get to richard lacaille from state street. he is still with us. we were just hearing about the economy.in the u.s. does it have momentum, do you think? richard: we are past the rapid stage, now we are at a shallow slope but the slope is still continuing upward.

data recentlyood from durable goods, consumer credit cards. it has momentum but it is slowing. i think it will continue until the end of the year at this pace. of a statement do you think we will get from jay powell when he speaks later today? a focus on the way they are going to change the inflation targeting for the central bank, is that going to be the focus for you? are you looking for in around average inflation targeting? richard: in normal times, we would be looking at whether they raise the inflation target or soft in the ceiling, so to speak, but right now we are focused at what can be done today. we need reassurance that they will be fighting inflation and considering other policy tools next year. i don't think they want much policyut of the

statement because they don't want to upset the markets too much. the policy levers are somewhat limited. tom: tom keene in new york. how do you define the bubble? there is a group there are saying this has bubble characteristics. richard: everyone looks at bubbles. it is a smart thing to do to look for bubbles. but they are obviously hard to spot in advance. right now you have a very strong story around technology companies. a real nifty 50 cents, a real economic story. but everything can get overvalued, and we are getting close to that level now. some of those companies being overvalued. technology story can spread widely and go on much longer than people think. tom: what is the timeline here? hooper,as well, peter wonderful chief economist at deutsche bank says, look, no

vaccine, no stimulus for the recession government like a 1981, in double-dip recession. what do equities do given a hooper scenario? richard: in double-dip recession would definitely see earnings revisions driving the market down very sharply. there is only really the discount rate and loose policy holding the ship up. i think you will see a spike up in volatility in the third quarter. actual volatility has been very low. because correlation between stocks has been dropping a lot. but if you look at implied volatility, people are still a little cautious. i think in the fourth quarter you have a catch-up where real volatility will rise to much implied.- to match anna: what are your expectations on fiscal spending given what you said about the monetary stimulus being important. it is, but what about fiscal see aing if we

recession or if we see politics turning out to give us a change, or no change, what kind of fiscal largess will receive from the government? richard: i think if you have a double-dip, it would be preceded by signals of a double-dip. i think you would see much more multilateral, multinational action. more coordinated policy. i know it goes against the grain, and we haven't seen that for a while, but that will be essential and essential. that would put us into a softening of the double-dip and an improvement into '21. anna: is that regardless of who wins the november election? richard: it is regardless, because i think the compulsion to act and to use those levers, fiscal levers, and to reduce trade tensions, would be paramount. it would not be sold by a single-nation strategy. i believe that regardless of who would win the election. tom: rick, i look at the

election -- i grew up in a house where it was pretty much ignored -- the you ignore the punditry about the election as you look out, six months in particular, 18 months? richard: punditry may be one thing. we are certainly interested in policy because we are long-term investors, and the health of our portfolio is affected by policy choices. so we are looking for policy choices that will be favorable to long-term economic growth and welfare, not just in the u.s., but elsewhere. punditry has not in pointing out what the policy differences are on. -- pender tree has been pointing out the policy differences on trade and taxation. they have been focused on other issues. i think fiscal stimulus is

important. but how the fiscal stimulus fundpans out. listen, in most nations, there isn't much movement to loosen fiscal policy. that will be the case in this election. how you spend the money is the important thing. the sense that infrastructure spending rather than necessarily more tax cuts is the way to go. tom: richard lacaille with us. we will look into some more structural analysis. what we are going to do, the seriousness of the hurricane, and of course, the policy speech at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. brian sullivan is really, really good at the commercial aspects of any given natural disaster. then we will come back with mr. lacaille to give you more on economics, finance and investment. anna edwards in london, i am tom keene in new york. futures at -9. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. anna edwards in london, i am tom keene in new york. michael mckee will be with us through the morning as well, an exceptionally important speech. this will be a speech that will move markets and provide gifts to the market as well. right now we have a gift at bloomberg. brian sullivan has put together a career at bloomberg on the

commercial impact of natural disasters. in normal refinery process to take the salt of the oil. it.olysis process, i get the salt out of the water is a different process, isn't it? brian: it is a total disaster, tom. it will get into all of the electrical equipment and destroy it. that is the main problem. now you will have to rebuild a lot of the infrastructure that just runs the refinery if the salt water got into these refineries. we are talking 10% of the u.s. capacity, refining capacity could be off-line for days, weeks and months. tom: is there an import or export skew to this? is it going to the american public or is it the burgeoning export market? brian: you have a mix. not too far away from the refineries, you have the lng

export facilities which need these be giant 900-foot lng tankers to come up and park, get thelng and take it out of united states. this also was in the path of this wall of water that the hurricane center says will last for days before it starts to receive and goes back into the gulf of mexico. have been atlities least temporarily taken off-line. when the sun comes up, i think we will whether or not the damage is even more extensive. morning.an, good the wall of water is what we need to watch out for. ? what about the risk of flooding caused by the storm staying in one place we saw that with hervey in 2017, flooding houston because it just got stuck there

eventually. what do we know about the path of this and whether it will move on quickly? brian: laura is moving on quickly and actually also the top winds are dying off. it is down to 100 20 miles per hour -- i wouldn't want to be standing in front of that -- but tomorrow it will be down to a category one hurricane and pretty soon into a tropical storm, as it runs up the mississippi river, takes it right up the ohio river and then comes over the northeast u.s. so it is a fast mover. we are not going to have that harvey effect where you had rain by the foot for a day on day. anna: well, that is at least one silver lining. 1856, i think you have to go back, to find a storm that hit louisiana with such force. you mentioned earlier some of the risk around saltwater getting into refineries.

how much of an assessment we have at this point as to how long we take infrastructure out for?e system are we looking for something that takes a long time to clean up and a long time to rebuild, or we don't know yet? brian: we just don't know yet. a lot of these areas are still being battered. the storm isn't that far inland, not too far from lake charles, louisiana. it just came in at 1:00 in the time, about four hours ago, moving about 15 miles per hour. so it is still hitting that area pretty hard. tom: one of the great mistakes year, particularly for cozy new englanders like you and me, houston is 500 miles to the west, new orleans is 300 miles to the east. describe the oil industry midway between houston and new orleans. brian: that area, first of all,

it is kind of similar to québec, you walk into the stores and the people greet you in french, that is one of the charms of the place. but we are talking about a fairly rural area, still hundreds of thousands of people affected by this -- i don't want to downplay that -- but these oil facilities down there, they dominate the landscape. you see them from very far away, they light up the night. sometimes you think you are approaching a huge city, but it is not. tom: brian, god to leave it there. brian sullivan on some of the commercial aspects of laura, now a category three hurricane. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. ate days the news just comes you. today it is preplanned.

my bowtie is not stray. we have the convention. we have the powell speech coming up. withve richard lacaille us. i want to talk about something nobody is talking about because they all own amazon and apple and i don't, and that is portfolio construction. how do you put together the most optimal equity portfolio right now? >> i think the golden rule is to be diversified and to look pretty widely for opportunities. i think if you're an active manager, up to stick your style and that has been difficult. for those who don't own apple and amazon, it has been an painful experience. but looking at history, if you are a value manager, get to stick with value manager and not get to distracted. widest most, the diversification is far best the long-term portfolio. tom: do you see the wall of

money that is out there taking advantage of the price to cash and a fewrity tech others versus the things undervalued? people have been carried out by that value trade. they have wanted that to be right for a really long time. the elastic gets stretched more and more. i think there has been a fair amount of capitulation. the last several weeks have been interesting. there has been a drop in correlation between stocks. .hat normally heralds revival we may be seeing the beginnings of that. it is early to call that that value rally yet because the metric economic conditions that are providing that growth rally are still with us. lower for longer and the scarcity of economic growth. talking aboute full diversification across products and geography, then

some may wonder whether you then are better off going with passive investments. how do active invest there's -- investors -- >> they have to focus at what they're good at. active managers are focused on one niche discipline. not to try to do everything with one set of tools. that said, i think index is fantastic as a value proposition for investors over a very long time, but most investors need more than just the index. therefore, they have to think, how am i going to outperform the next person, how am i going to spot that manager, and one way you do so is to look for people who really stuck to their guns through thick or thin. when value comes back to be the stay, will it

case that growth just takes the prize week after week from here on? when do you see a real resurgence in value? >> i think when the yield curve gets a little steeper. it gets steeper because nominal economic growth looks better. you have to look quite a long way forward for that set of circumstances. gay does not mean individual value managers cap do well because -- it does not mean individual value managers cannot do well. undervalued businesses that can be taken private. someputs the floor under businesses but to get a true relic, you need a big change in the economic outlook. housesck lacaille, different from january 2001 before everything unraveled in march of 2001? >> we're looking back at

previous euros, the dot com bubble and the nifty 50. the 2001 era with a little different because you did not have real earnings power from some of these overvalued tech names. now you have a real economic story and a real earnings story, so it does look a little more like the 1960's and the 1950 erathan the dot com. nifty 50, to mention it, but i actually have a recollection of the nifty 50. but we're still getting over the shock in america of salesforce.com joining the dow. tech is taking over. we have been taught -- calling it your digital dominance. is that what you see, digital dominance? >> i think these phrases are unhelpful. if you dig in deeply, what if you got? technology that is changing a number of industries, whether it is health care or shopping,

delivery businesses like amazon, and they're becoming much more effective and efficient businesses. in some cases, they have monopoly-like profits. those are swept together. it is not so much the advances in at the hardware so much as people changing business models. i think it will really and drive economic growth. anna: maybe all companies in the end are migrating toward becoming tech companies. it is fascinating to see how tech disrupts another and another and even in places where you did not think it was possible. >> i think what grocery that is the growth of intangible value. thatthink what goes with is the growth of intangible value. if a business has a lot of intangible value, you have to worry about things that were drawn esg. that's why we think those things are important as well. in a new world where it is not so much hardware that generates

office, but software, human capital, customers, brand. those factors mean esg and long-term investing are much more important. -- think you so much, richard lacaille. thank you for staying with us. that's get an update on some of the first word news stories. >> hurricane laura has mainland fall as one of the most powerful storms ever to hit louisiana. maximum wind speed hit 150 miles per hour when it came ashore. bringing the threat of a 20 foot storm surge and flash flooding. several hours after landfall, laura's winds have died down to 120 miles row her. it could make some areas and inevitable for weeks or even months. -- uninhabitable for weeks or even months. vice president pence last night

praised president trump for the way he is handled economic crisis caused by the pandemic. >> because of the strong foundation that president trump poured in our first three years, we have gained back 9.3 million jobs in the last three months alone. and we are not just opening up america again, we're opening up american schools. pencee president question whether biden is a trojan horse for the radical left. guidelines on coronavirus testing. the guide says he's into manic people may not need tests. many public health experts say it is a wrong turn that could restrict the number of tests performed. the cdc says the change was not influenced by the white house and is meant to clarify the limits of testing.

tension rising between the u.s. and china over the south china sea. chinese forces fired four missiles into the waters at about the same time the was imposed trade and visa restrictions on chinese companies that help set up outposts in the region. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thank you. we're keeping an eye on hurricane laura link at the coverage of jackson hole -- laura, building up to coverage of jackson hole. we will be speaking to al kelley at 5:00 p.m. in new york, 10:00 p.m. in london. this is "bloomberg." ♪ this is "bloomberg." ♪

where we thought for free and fair trade and this president stood up to china and ended the era of economic surrender, joe biden has been a cheerleader for commonest china. because of the strong foundation that president trump poured and now our first three years, live already gained back 9.3 million jobs in the last three months alone. too many heroes have died defending our freedom to see americans strike each other down. we will have law and order on the streets of this country for every american of every race and creed and color. we are on track to have the world's first safe, effective coronavirus vaccine by the end of this year. and we're not just opening up america again, we're opening up

america's schools. after all the sacrifice in this year like no other, all the hardship, we are finding our way forward again. so with gratitude for the confidence president donald trump has placed in me, the support of our republican party, and the grace of god, i humbly accept your nomination to run and serve as vice president of the united states. tom: the gentleman from indiana, mr. pentz, speaking about donald trump -- pretty much as expected. there is the vice president in support on day three of the republican national convention. the president will speak tonight. right now we will speak to thomas gift. this is a wonderful industry in the united kingdom, really, really smart people on the united states providing u.s. wisdom off the platforms of the

great schools of the united kingdom. ucl, thomas gift. for years at duke university. thomas gift, i would assume that p mr.ence was speaking to the suburbs of raleigh, north carolina. you know a lot about that. how is he speaking to the suburbs like mooresville and the rest of raleigh, north carolina, differently than mr. biden or senator harris will speak to those suburbs? >> donald trump is really the first modern american president who hasn't sought to broaden out historical support beyond his core partisan base. the republican convention so far is a good encapsulation of that strategy. their bread-and-butter voters he is talking to are exactly like the one in north carolina. by and large, republicans are sticking to the standard gop playbook. they are maligning democrats as purveyors of socialist policies and biden is captive to what they call the radical left mob. that is what we expected.

that is what we have gotten so far. we have heard some about policy, but more so about opposition to democrats. republicans have offered no official party platform, which some say is a reflection of the fact that this is really all about trump, about his inability to speak to those core demographics like the ones that you just named. tom: what would be the emotional item for suburban voters when we go to november? what is the thing that will tip them this way or that way? beit is probably going to two issues. one is definitely the economy. if trump can make a reasonable case the economy is on the upswing, that could make a difference. some voters, maybe if they are not enamored with the current president, with his tweets, his personal behavior, with his personal character, they still may say "well, we had a good economy prior to covid-19. we had record lows in terms of unemployment for certain

demographics, let's get back to that." if trump can make a compelling case that will happen, i think he has a good shot of reaching out to those voters that you just mentioned. the other issue really is law and order. the backdrop of a lot of the social unrest we have been seeing in recent days and weeks going modly back to george floyd and prior to that, trump is trying to pivot this discussion and make it about law and order, to say the democrats with their agenda, defunding the police are minimizing support to the police is not a good strategy. if they can make that case to some suburban voters come, resonate. -- voters,, resonate. anna: given the lead that biden has in the polls, what is it that can close the gap? the virus replanting well on the republican party and that cap closes?

>> that is certainly the case. if trump can make a compelling case that there is an imminent vaccine before november, i just got could really tip the scales of the selection, make it much more competitive. right now joe biden does have a significant lead. it is a comfortable lead, about eight percentage points in the national polls. of course that number is slightly more narrow in some of the key swing states like pennsylvania, michigan, ohio, and florida. but if the voters feel like they can see the light at the end of the tunnel, that trump can make a case that -- we know we have gone through hard times, we can get through this, that i would expect this race to really tighten up in a hurry. this is not over yet. i think biden has recognized that an repeatedly has said -- anna: not over. just briefly, what to expect dear from president trump himself? will he keep talking only to his base or try to broaden the

appeal? >> the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. i think trump's make america great again rally is the best harbinger of what the president will touch on. certainly he will double down on his claim that aggressive democrats are seeking to change the fundamental fabric of the country. that biden and the democrats want to be passive in maintaining law and order. to the extent he talks about his own record in the white house, he was beat to some of these issues that his base unequivocally supports. tax cuts, hard-line immigration policies, conservative judicial nominees, tough stance on china. you soomas gift, thank much. we will have much more coverage. tonight, david westin, final night of the republican national convention. 9:00 p.m. on bloomberg. stay with us.

we are watching the 10 year real yield into the powell speech. wow statistic. this is "bloomberg." ♪

good morning. i am anna edwards with tom keene. u.s. futures we get a little as we wait for jay powell later. salesforce plans to cut jobs as they look to streamline operations. the cuts come even after he reports record quarterly revenue and forecast for the gates. the salesforce ceo spoke with emily chang about how the company is adapting to challenges brought on by the pandemic. >> we seen so many of our customers go through so much difficulty this quarter, but i think that we can look at this quarter and look at everything that has happened with salesforce and we so strongly believe business is the greatest platform for change. we continue to work with our customers and to use our customer 360 platform to help them transform their businesses to get closer to their

businesses. and at the same time, we're very much looking at this as a victory for stakeholder capitalism. we have been able to deliver a great return for our shareholders. you just made that very clear. that is a 5000% return. we went public in 2004. it is also a strong return for stakeholders. we have done millions of hours of volunteerism, given away hundred civilians of dollars. away hundreds and means of dollars. you can look at our local san francisco and oakland public schools where we live and you can see we just delivered another $20 million this quarter to them, which brings our total contributions to over 120 million dollars to our local public schools. maybe that is what i am most proud of of this quarter's accomplishments. emily: let's talk about whether the growth in index out a sustainable or if you're saying -- does it mean

things will slow down when we come out of the pandemic and shift to whatever new normal is? >> we have seen this as a long-term growth driver. the salesforce is now 21 years old. we have had many interviews together over so many years. the reality is, it is basically the end of software. everything has been to the cloud. salesforce is the largest enterprise applications company. theave made our name on idea that you can easily get value from this cloud solution, that is fast to install, fast return on the investments. the transformation that you want for your business regardless of scale can happen instantly and powerfully, and you can get tremendous roi. this is why salesforce continues to grow. you can see today salesforce will do more than $20 billion in revenue this quarter.

that is amazing. we have more than 54,000 employees. this really allows us to serve any customer in any part of the world and also demonstrates the cloud israel and here, well, forever. emily: it is the end of software. those are fighting words. i wonder how some of your competitors like microsoft would feel about that? i thought about marc andreessen saying software will lead the world. do you think we are ending -- entering a new era for technology? >> of good the end of software," i said that first in 1999 so i my old pull that out of al toolbelt. we needed a model based on the cloud. a new business model where customers pay as they go. look, we also need a new philanthropic model. these traditional software

companies have not been the most generous to their communities, as you know. that is why i started salesforce. i left oracle almost 22 years ago. when i did, i took those three goals -- can we create a new technology model? can we create a new business model? can we create a new social model for business? we are trying to inspire an industry, a new set of values, values based on trust and customer success and innovation, equality. we are trying to inspire stakeholder capitalism. that capitalism itself? well, the traditional capitalism is dead. we need one that is more sustainable and just, more equitable capitalism. we are trying to be an example of that where we are in san francisco but really in everywhere. tom: marc benioff. what is so important, that single sentence where he took to task the rest of technology for the philanthropy.

in the background, over the left shoulder of marc benioff, one of in best mandolin collections north america. he and i have gone back and forth on this and he has an exquisite collection of mainlands -- mandolins. the vix goes from 21 to 23.40 over the last say 48 hours or so. we are watching real yield. -1.06. that is a wow statistic. this is "bloomberg." ♪

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we welcome all of you. jerome powell today, he will bestow gifts on the market according to james karen at morgan stanley. mr. chair looks for a weaker dollar. michael mckee will not be having his game day mountain man breakfast at the account aimed -- acclaimed pioneer grill. danger clear and present , hurricane landfall -- hurricane laura. in joe biden'sfe america, so says vice president pence. meanwhile, the former football coach of notre dame says mr. biden is catholic in name only. york, annane in new edwards and for francine lacqua. i want to go to the eu. this is a story off of our radar in america, but the eu has a bit of a people-riot going on. a peopat