francine: jp morgan says investors a position for the odds of trump being reelected. he visits kenosha, wisconsin today. the german government expects the retraction to be less than forecast. -- productionon for 75 million phones for later this year, in a signed demand is going up. the morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. to a bit of data we had early on

in terms of pmi's. may look ata data august manufacturing pmi, 51.7, in line with expectations. economists were expecting 51.7. the dollar dropping to a two year low. u.s. features climbing after chinese manufacturing data that indicated exports are underpinning a recovery, and the euro leading the charge against the dollar. the weaker dollar fueled commodities with copper climbing. let's get to the bloomberg first word news in london, this is laura wright. expectgermany does not economic fallout from the coronavirus to be as bad as previously thought. the updated forecasts are officially released today.

europe's biggest economy has staged a rebound after collapsing in the second quarter. global trade is on course to recover more quickly than the 2008 financial crisis, according to germany's institute for the world economy. it said shipping volumes are back at levels faster than it took after the lehman collapse. argentina has received support to restructure its overseas debt , that paves the way to emerge from the ninth default in its history. almost all the international bonds -- argentina says this will generate $38 billion in debt relief over the next decade. elon musk is the third richest person in the world, passing mark zuckerberg. tesla shares continued their rally after a stock split. is worth over $150 million and his net worth has grown $90 billion this year alone.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: president trump is planning to visit kenosha, wisconsin where two protesters were killed last week. he suggested the man arrested for the shootings may have acted in self-defense. joe biden slammed the president for not calling out the teenager charged with homicide. take a listen to the president and his opponent joe biden speaking on this issue. this horriblestop left-wing ideology that seems to be permeating our country, and its weakness on behalf of democratic politicians. we republicans do not have problems. >> do i look like a radical socialist with a soft spot for writers? really?

a soft spot for rioters? really? saw,u saw the same tape i and he was trying to get away, it looks like. he fell and they violently attacked him. it is something we are looking at now. lawe may believe the words and order makes him strong, but his failure to call on his supporters to stop acting as an armed militia shows how weak he is. francine: for more on all of this, we are joined with the latest. good morning. what are we expecting from trump's kenosha visit today? >> i think you will see donald trump do more of the same. he has been clear that he will run as a law and order

candidate. he will talk about law and order every chance he gets. he will hug policeman as closely as possible. this is a president who has seen any number of difficulties over the past year but thinks he may have a winning issue that can help his campaign which is trailing in national polls. wisconsin, for those not familiar with the american electoral map, arguably the most important swing state this year. president trump will travel to kenosha against the wishes of the city's democratic mayor and governor. says he plans to go, he will praise law enforcement and the national guard. that is where he stands. francine: are we seeing any shift in the polls or public opinion due to the unrest? >> we will get a lot of polls

this week that i would imagine .ill get a lot of coverage so far both candidates look like they came out of the conventions relatively flat to where they went into them, which means biden has a durable national that is larger than his lead in most things states. until thetwo months november election, a lot can happen in that time. as we remember from four years ago when hillary clinton let at this time. -- led at this time. there is a lot of room to go. this is an issue trump feels he has an advantage. trump needsid that to rein in his own supporters,

and has accused the president of inciting violence, and not being willing to condemn some of his supporters, in the same way trump is saying biden needs to be more forceful against left-wing protesters. francine: i want to show you a great chart on the back of j.p. morgan, to prepare for a rising chance president trump wins a second term. you see the blue line being joe biden, and the white line is joe biden, popularly going down, and trump rising. turnsre the chances trump this around and gets a second term? derek: joe biden add a 2:1 chance right now.

i am exceptional abetting markets. in the democratic primary they had hillary clinton having a better chance. there is a lot of dumb money there. salt.hat with a pound of what i do pay attention to is polls,, and i encourage people to look at state-level polls. this is not a national contest. it is not a national referendum. it is a coalition of 51 different contests where you need to get math to add up to 270 electoral votes. two of the biggest places this will be fought are in wisconsin, the current center of the unrest. and minnesota which is where george floyd was killed in may that sparked all of this.

those will be the important states, the president is targeting them very hard. francine: thank you, derek wallbank. we are pleased to have ludovic subran, economist / head of economic research, allianz,'when you look at the warning by j.p. morgan, what is priced in markets now? joe biden president or second term trump? markets arehink for joe biden. what could be a recession after the lockdown depression. they are concerned about the three months between the election and taking power. concerns for the fourth quarter is underestimated on this side of the pond are most of the government are updating forecasts, but they do

not see the international environment getting worse by the minute. ?rancine: what is your take the dollar has fallen to a two year low. will it continue falling because of the fed in targeting inflation? ludovic: it is interesting because the differential between the euro and the dollar cannot be explained by rational factors. the growth differential is not enough. maybe the fed is more dovish than ecb. board members said they will not do more right now. i think what is priced in is a trust in what could be the u.s. six fro months from now. big bets on the credibility of the united states, and can they get out of the twilight zone after than the eurozone? concernar is a big

because it trades secondary effects. the record low valuation of euro stocks compared to american stocks, or the idea the u.s. economy is fueled on something which is a record low dollar. we expect the dollar to appreciate after the election. we do not think this is secular that is happening, but will have an effect for the next three to six months. francine: thank you very much. we will get back to ludovic subran. coming up, does the german government expected the retraction to be less severe? this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." let's talk about germany, expecting the economic fallout from covid-19 will be smaller than it earlier projected. they areold bloomberg due to present the outlook at 10:00 a.m. u.k. time. the biggest economy has staged a strong rebound after collapsing in the second quarter during the coronavirus lockdown. ludovic subran, economist / head of economic research, allianz is still with us. what will that second lockdown look like, to have a path forward for germany? does euro strengthened from here because the situation will get better? i think the situation

in the manufacturing sector is getting better. we saw good numbers from the beginning of the summer on. on the consumer side, that was the first to pick up. now there is a plateau, 80% of consumption. it is a bit optimistic from the german government to update the forecast. it shows they are confident the policy, the stimulus, the economy is working. the stocksnfident that companies have, and the fact that bankruptcies have been postponed will not disrupt the ability of germans to export. on the consumption side i am worried about the patterns. we see discretionary savings in germany, and something that is not good because people are restraining themselves from consuming. what matters for a country like germany. happens tohat germany longer-term?

does it outperform a country like france, or are there political doubts that could question the economy? germany is the one getting out of the crisis the strongest. potential growth wise, it is of the covid-19 recession, low growth rates because of low productivity and the export driven sector that was under duress. when you look at the stimulus program that germany took, there is nothing long-term. very little long-term, investment program for the greening of the economy. this is small compared to france , or what the u.s. is doing. the potential gdp. i would not be surprised if by the end of 2020 one when germany recovers from the crisis faster than the others, the question of low growth that will be locked

be after the election in germany. we need a new model in germany when it comes to structural reforms, and basically making export dependency less, but also being stronger on innovation and moving the supply chain. there is nothing on this when you look at the recovery plan announced by the government last month. francine: we may also come to brexit afterwards, but if there is a messy brexit, who has the most to lose in europe? ludovic: from brexit, the netherlands, ireland, and exporting countries. and spain.aly the big issue with brexit now, the negotiations are doing poorly, but the capital flows between the u.k. in europe are messed up when you look where the pound is today. you see a lot of drag.

costly, actually more than brexit uncertainty toward the end of the year. francine: thank you so much. ludovic subran, economist / head of economic research, allianz stays with us. as it up, apple's appeal it is ready to deliver the next generation iphones. product hasor the held up through the pandemic. we will also talk to the world health organization, that is coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. global trade is on course to recover more quickly than the 2008 financial crisis. shipping volumes are already back at levels that took more than a year to reach following the collapse of lehman brothers. a v-shaped recovery is underway. still with us is ludovic subran, economist / head of economic research, allianz. what do you do with the emerging markets now? i think the problem is

the rebound of trade services, which is not happening. the v-shaped is because there is no credit crunch. , butood trade is revived 10% below crisis level. markets andg advance economies that are consumers are not completely back. for us, global trade is going back to the levels, go figure. when you talk about emerging markets, the current monitoring financial situation is good for them. the dovish fed is good, but will that last? if the dollar were to strengthen again, we could see a wave of difficult times for emerging andets rattling the virus the credibility of their policies and institutions. i'm talking about brazil, mexico, south africa, india. emerging markets are in the eye

of the storm. the risk for emerging markets will be too far when it comes to their economic policies. markets lot of emerging doing qe. , emerging in turkey market currencies are volatile, and we expect that to continue. --ncine: is there anything what do you do with countries that could be a difficulty if the dollar wobbles? is there any value you see in emerging markets? is there a china play? ludovic: emerging markets, especially south asia are doing room toause they had maneuver, and their policies are credible it comes to managing inflation. faster. back

emerging markets in a trade area of china are doing better. vast, so most emerging markets can function. the problem for emerging markets, one out of three jobs related to tourism or the manufacturing base that is on pause to read the big question is are they ready to really have the middle class go through a ?rop in activity longer-term look a indonesia, they closed the borders until 2021. tourism is a big part of their industry. you have room to maneuver. analysts aremost looking into, the detail of policy decisions in emerging markets, because they are different from one country to another. francine: thank you very much, ludovic subran, economist / head

of economic research, allianz stay with us. later today we will talk to company's chief financial officer. this is what the markets are looking at. they are looking at data out of europe and data out of china. european stocks, they are climbing after chinese manufacturing data seem to indicate exports are seeing a recovery. we are looking at a weaker dollar. $6800 inimbing past london. treasuries are little changed. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,

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sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." astrazeneca has started the human trial of his coronavirus

vaccine. they are one of the furthest along in the various covid vaccines. joining me now is dr. hans kluge , regional director for europe, world health organization. thank you for giving us a bit of your time. we will getare you a vaccine at the end of 2020? been ane: it has unprecedented effort globally, but the increasing number of trial.s in a clinical i would not say before the end of the year. end,accine will not be the the end will be when people are learning to live [indiscernible] francine: how do you live with the pandemic? does it mean social distancing needs to happen at all times and that mask wearing needs to

happen outside, and will people do it? pandemic hasis cost us far too many human but this is not as infectious as ebola. governments to take responsibility. to embrace the health measures, some of those that you just mentioned. francine: it is different in france than spain and italy of the u.k. who gets it right? is it safe to sing kids back to school? dr. kluge: [indiscernible]

country safely opening schools, children have been suffering too much from school closures. for their mental health, , and those in abusive atmospheres behind the locked down. has to be safe and gradual. schools closed temporarily and locally is something we have to anticipate, but we cannot open society without opening schools first. francine: when you say we should not pin our hopes on the vaccine and need to live with the virus, would you say people should not go to work, but try to work from home? do we need to act as if we are in a half lockdown at all times? do you believe we will not have

a viable vaccine, or it will arrive too late? dr. kluge: [indiscernible] the vaccine is very important. it is not one-size-fits-all. we cannot foresee [indiscernible] reality. new [indiscernible] how difficult are the winter months going to be? will it more difficult be when we are indoors and cannot go out, where we

understand the virus gets spread less? dr. kluge: thank you for this question. an increased number of cases but , when wetalizations opening ofe winter, soools in the academic year, in octobermore cases and november. in february [indiscernible] we can help society by working localized. francine: would you shut down restaurants and bars to make sure schools can reopen? school is embedded in

the community. the school has to reflect [indiscernible] transmission is different. avoid mass scattering's, wear masks -- avoid mass gatherings, wear masks, hygiene. datave to look at the nationally and locally. there is no general answer for all situations. francine: can we reach heard immunity without a vaccine? we see that people who got the virus can get it a second time. where there has

the community transmission, heard immunity is at maximum 16%. the majority of the population is still susceptible. it is not because the virus has gone away, it is because of the measures. [indiscernible] francine: if people can get the virus again, and presumably once you have it, you should have antibodies and be safe, how can you be optimistic about a vaccine that actually works? we have never seen where the public sector, private sector working together on research and science. be able tol we will

put back the pandemic. we should give hope to the people, but still we have to be vigilant and cautious. the behavior of the government is the most important. the policy options. [indiscernible] we have seen denial and misinformation. francine: thank you for joining us, dr. hans kluge, regional director for europe, world health organization. here is laura wright with the first word news. laura: donald trump rejecting claims that americans will be he criticized peaceful protests and called out the president for fomenting

violence across the country. president trump is planning to visit notion, wisconsin, the city where two protesters were killed last week. yesterday he suggested the man who committed the shooting acted in self-defense. joe biden slam the president for not calling out the teenager charged with homicide. position foruld the rising odds of president trump winning reelection. j.p. morgan says the odds are now even. it is largely due to the impact of violence on public opinion, and bias in the polls. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. up, interviewsg from the hong kong executives at a time when health care issues

have surged due to the pandemic. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance."i'm francine lacqua in london. the hong kong exchange has kicked of its summit at a time when health care reit issues -- health care issues have surged due to the pandemic. this is the right thing to do at the right time. it is such a big sector, and china is such a big country with an aging population due to

health care challenges. and drug development. all of this requires asia to have a center for biotech so we and theort research massive health care reforms. that is a big event, because china finally, literally four years ago, brought the entire drug administration system into the same as the fda. governingm will bring drug administration the same with the u.s. that reform set the foundation for us to again take a huge reform in the biotech sector in terms of listings. , and theyno revenue

need to have government approval. ever having to regulate it. we thought that history of being regulated allow them to be listed despite the fact they do not have the traditional measures that typical companies that we ask for before they can list here. it was a great event, a milestone. we never thought covid-19 would hit us, but looking back, i don't know how we could cope without this new sector that is allowing some of the companies to join the race finding the vaccine and therapeutics and solutions. what is the edge for hong kong? we know china has been the regulating to make it easier for these companies to list domestically, or easier for them to list on the chinext. for the last 11 years, we

ipo.umber one in terms of we are the ipo center around the globe. that is the tradition. also drug development in this , and is international requires a tremendous amount of scientific collaboration between the u.s., china and europe, and the scientists are limited place . anre needs to be stimulus of international component to it. international conductivity. could not handle this, so we have gone through a massive reform that allowed all pre-revenue, and pretrial companies.

china is trying to do a similar review and reform, but it is about money, scientists, working together. i think we provide that unique combination. yet.x is not done what we see in reform and tweaking in the rules as you try to attract more listings? reform,e broader chapter 18 a, the pre-revenue biotech chapter is a part of a large comprehensive reform of changing the landscape and composition of the market. andt of reforms, in vr, many of the u.s. companies have unique structures that do not necessarily fit in here.

need to find a way to see if we can make it work for them. for specific biotech, 18a, the bulk of what we needed to do is behind us. .here are tweaks here and there and to make the offering easier, so there are a few things we are working with our regulators, our listing department. we are not talking about fundamental change. francine: that was the hong kong exchange clearing executive charles li. let's bring our latest bloomberg scooped. apple is looking to build five -- 75 million iphones later this year, in line with last year's launch. joining me is dani burger. iphones, what does it mean for apple? dani: it is a positive sign in

terms of demand. it is the same as last year. keep in mind the context is we are in the middle of a pandemic, in the middle of a recession, and still demand is holding steady. we have seen a lot of suppliers game today. .n european trading in some ways this shows us apple is the ultimate stay-at-home play. perhaps people do not want to buy more expensive macbooks or ipads, but if you are working at home, these are tools people are buying and using because they are no longer in the office. we have learned apple will have a product list throughout the fall, this is what everyone gets excited about. models of iphones in october, and a new ipad air, smaller home pods, two new apple watch versions, and they are launching over the ear

headphones, the first time they are doing it. the fact they are coming out with sony products shows there confidence in demand despite the fact the pandemic has not abated. francine: speaking of tech, online platforms experienced outages yesterday. been indeed they have results, we have seen robin hood , vanguard had glitches yesterday. they are more aware it happened at the same time. some strategists think we had a apple and tesla stock split and the dow jones rebounding. a bad time for a lot of investors who wanted to trade these names like apple and tesla as they were soaring to new heights. and trading volume in general. francine: thank you so much, dani burger on these hot topics.

coming up, more on the pharma sector. that is coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." astrazeneca has begun large-scale human trials of its coronavirus vaccine in the u.s. it plans to enroll 30,000 adults to test the shots. a final stage test is underway in the u k and could yield the limitary results as soon as next month. the vaccine was developed by researchers at the university of oxford. for more on this, bloomberg farm agence on our coverage. it great to have you on the program. how convinced are you

astrazeneca will be here quick and safe? >> based on the data we have seen to date, we have not seen any new data from them. the vaccine appears to work in nonhuman primates and humans in terms of inducing an immune response. they are starting a large u.s. trial and will be accessing south american countries. chile also approved for that trial. we have to wait to see how this does in human trials in terms of production. we need production data. francine: do you worry more about protection or the safety of the vaccine? paramountof course is as we have always said. you are treating healthy people essentially. you have to have both hand-in-hand, and there is a trade-off. if you get 90% protection against severe disease or reduction in hospitalizations,

you might accept a slightly versus lower safety bar if you only had a 50% benefit. it is a tug-of-war between safety and if it levels. francine: how do you square the two? if people you not feel safe, they will not get vaccinated. how long does it take to develop a vaccine like this? vaccinert of another and will be deemed more safe? sam: nothing like that, it is completely new. most vaccines are completely new. whether thematter technology was used previously are not. in some cases even if you have done the technology used before, and you go into a new virus, you find different side effects. early side effects we will see will be the types of effects in terms of high fever.

it would be odd if we saw the rare forms of side effects like an old vaccine which caused narcolepsy in a few people in a larger population. those side effects you will only ever know once you have done two million people, maybe less. we will see how safe it is acutely. francine: a number of countries are seeing a huge rise in the number of infected. we are not seeing a tariff similar we are not seeing a simr rise in deaths. is it that the vaccine is less violent than it was in april and may? sam: there is a combination of things, if you look at the data that lead the fda to approve the

convalescent plasma in the u.s. for emergency use, you saw a significant drop in the mortality from even april to july. that is probably to do a lot more -- and there was no change in the age profile of the individual. what i think you are seeing was basically less sick people getting the disease. and also the hospitals being better at managing the disease. and we have drugs that work now. francine: thank you so much. "bloomberg surveillance" continues. ♪

♪ four more years, jp

morgan says investors should ofsition for rising odds the president being reelected. the german government expects the contraction to be less than forecast. the economy minister speaks this hour. apple's production blip. build 75suppliers to million 5g iphones for later this year, assigned demand is holding up. good morning and welcome to bloomberg surveillance. tom keene is in new york. we will have a robust conversation on the economy. we are getting inflation numbers out of europe following to 0.2%, the lowest in years. it's all about school reopening's and some schools may be getting it better than others. and decided to stay-at-home others were more class dependent. to