a chaotic split, the european union is giving boris johnson until the end of the month to back down off the controversial brexit bill. makes jane fraser the first woman to run a major wall street bank. an exit at rio. the chief executive and other senior leaders are under pressure to leave after the destruction of aboriginal sites in australia. this is bloomberg surveillance. it has been 19 years since the horrific day on september 11. i know we will have tribute throughout the day. anniversary, 19th remembrance of september 11. it is about the pandemic, still affecting new york city as london, and also it is about the election year. it will be interesting to see the visibility today, the president of the united states and vice president biden as well. we will have our usual treatment here of course, and mike mckee will join us. francine: looking forward to

that. let's get to bloomberg first word news in new york city with tika group to. ritika: good morning. the deadline for -- the president says if the bytok corporate cannot sell september 14, it will be shut down. bloomberg learned a deal is unlikely by next week because new chinese regulations complicated negotiations with bidders, microsoft and oracle. the usda's telling drugmakers they will have to meet a higher standard. emergency authorization for coronavirus vaccines. the agency will require more data than usual about how well it works. officials are trying to reassure the public they will not get politicalve into pressure to approve a vaccine prematurely.

prime minister boris johnson's government turned down an e.u. request to scrap his plan to rewrite the brexit divorce agreement. that risk jeopardizing assets to get a trade deal between the two sides before the december 31 deadline. president trump and joe biden will mark the 19th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks in the same place but not at the same time. the president will attend a memorial service in shanksville, pennsylvania, where one of the hijacked planes crashed. biden will go to shanksville, but not until later in the day. pennsylvania is one of the battleground states. polls show biden has a narrow lead there. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. futures up 27 right now, make it 26 points. dow futures up 145. we gave it up at the end of the

trading session and we get a bounce off that give up right now. 28.48. the 10-year yield come as jon ferro mentioned, .70 come has been a center tendency, right now at .68%. francine: the british pound headed for its biggest weekly drop since march. i'm looking at core european bonds. they are gaining, treasuries are steady, but there are a couple of things going on with european bonds. this goes back to what the ecb did yesterday and the fact that president lagarde somewhat spurred a rally in the euro after she delivered relatively mild comments on the surge. but the chief economist said -- set a tougher tone this morning, possibly signaling more monetary stimulus is needed. let's talk about all this, the ecb and the euro, with themos

fiotakis. great to have you on the program. when you look at the ecb, was the ecb a little too relaxed about strengthening in euro? themos: good morning, and good to be here. good to see you again. they repeated the usual mantra about how the ecb used the euro and input with inflation, but the main question around that is and remains what are you going to do about that? of toolst have a lot to deal with it. they kind of really take interest rates much lower from here, and they cannot do anything about the fact that the dollar is weak at this stage and will probably remain weak as long as drivers remain in place. does it actually hurt their inflation forecasting echo

themos: it hurts probably for the next year, but i would note that the euro has been going up together with the market's long-term inflation expectation, so in terms of what is driving the euro move, it is the recovery, and it is a lot of the tools that they have put forward a steepernues to fuel credible expectation or recovery of inflation rates with go hand-in-hand with a higher euro. i don't think it is a big issue --them unless it was the tom: wonderful to have you with us today. i noticed a real subtle point, the federal reserve system that has staked out the theoretical territory of saying let inflation happen, and then we will do something about it. and yesterday the ecb making the distinction that they are not

worried about inflation happening when inflation turns. they will do something about it. how far apart are the two banks theoretically e? themos: i think quite far apart. the theoretical spread is at the moment a lot more robust in terms of what it is trying to achieve. both in terms of how they are laying out the new mandate, which i don't know if you saw -- i know you are an avid reader of these things -- but a lot of the newrs describe how the inflation targeting regime works during the recession. there is a long look back window where they are, allowing inflation to overshoot in ways. in compensation for low inflation in the past. whereas in europe, you have a mandate that brings inflation below the percentage as opposed

to above the percentage. you have voices that are skeptical towards more stimulus. that has made a lot more progress that we have seen on a more inflationary mandate. tom: is the reticence on a defined look back the bundesbank speaking? themos: to a large degree. doesc, francine, how he that? he gives us those lengthy answers. he's waiting for a follow-up, tom. themos: i think that is spot on. i think part of the issue is that it feels uncomfortable with not only a higher inflation target, but also the tools to get there. i think that there is a notion even amongst some dovish countries as well that they cannot bring interest rates much

lower and that is fair. and there is the notion that for some reason, in some way, shape, is creating an insurmountable amount of distortion, which in my opinion is complete nonsense. it has created political issues with the constitutional court. we all know where the problem lies. some parts of the ecb are worried about the expansion of monetary basis as if this is the 1970's or something. francine: do you believe, if you look at what the fed has done and the announcement jackson hole and how they look at inflation, are we going to see something similar? do we have to see something similar from the ecb? themos: i think that gradually more and more central banks will fed's example.he all pastf you look at cycles, the fed tends to lead

the way in terms of innovation. this has been an innovation they have been preparing us for a long time, so it comes as no surprise. a lot of these reviews are will reache probably a similar conclusion to the degree that they can force any kind of change that doesn't clash with the constitutional mandate, because obviously the constitutional mandate issues for the ecb as well. central banks in the emerging world, which are now steeper, and expectations for higher rates in the years ahead, will probably gradually adapt to a framework like the fed, which is much lower for much longer, i would characterize. be the bankn could of japan, that in their own framework concluded that there is not much more they can do about it a few years ago. but it remains to be seen as well. dollare: what happens to in the next 12 to 18 months he

hs? themos: i think dollar should be a lot weaker. it is not just the fed, which is innovating in a framework that is not apparent today, but it will be apparent once we reduce the unemployment rate to 4% and once you have inflation rates which are now closer to 2% and they still remain dovish relativist to their commitment -- relative to their commitment. that is the point that will become most apparent. it is also the fact that the u.s., because of the extraordinary amount of stimulus , because of the fact that the recovery has been speedier than other counterparties, they will face a very large trade deficit, already the trade deficit in the u.s. is the largest since 2006, and that balance as it is building up, the first time we look at it in the last 12 to 15

years. the last time it showed up, it was a major dollar weakening factor. theoth the fundamentals and policy response around those are consistent with a weaker dollar going forward, in our view. much,ne: thank you so themos fiotakis, who stays with us. hour, thein the next portuguese finance minister, joao leao. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." on this september 11, we will have much more on this remembrance later. right now, themos fiotakis with us. we have been focused on the dynamics of the ecb. let's focus on the dollar. there was such a certitude -- what, three weeks ago, three months ago? of a weaker dollar. 93.15, and real dollar stasis. let's start with the resiliency of the dollar. why has it been relatively resilient verse of the punditry of a weak dollar? themos: a couple of things you are capturing there -- the first one is the dollar and depreciation has happened. in a very staggered way when you look at the cross-section of currency. the dollar has been very weak against the aussie dollar,

against the euro. the dollar has not been exceptionally weak except for the very first part of the recovery against emerging-market currencies, for instance. this is because in a lot of dollar is where the affecting the monetary policy reaction function, this has been quite dovish. but to me one of the main factors that has been inhibiting a broader and stronger dollar is asian downside currencies, and particularly the chinese exchange rate. i think that it is very hard to fathom a sustainable dollar move dollar-china, dollar-korea, dollar-taiwan. all of these guys moving firmly and all of these guys that are listening to the sea ny for leadership, and the cn why has

a largeisting this to degree and lagging, possibly for a number of reasons. both with recovery but also linked potentially to the politics around the exchange rate. tom: the politics can be there, but it also comes down to interest rate differences and capital flow differences. which will win out in the next six months he? themos: if you look at china, the level of yield is extremely high. historically and in absolute terms relative to the u.s. one. interest rate differentials -- check. -- with a lot of the outflows we have seen from china are becoming a more comfortable one for chinese to invest in domestically. you also make a separate point, which is very important, around

the broader capital flows. i think emerging markets have kind ofrienced the capital inflow that you have seen in the u.s. equity markets, and that is an affliction that has been going on for a couple of years now. i do think that should change fadesime as the recession and as the recovery broadens, not only to the u.s. reopened but to the global reopen. as this economy reopens, performance will be stronger, and capital inflows will respond to that. francine: economies will reopen and close back down and then reopen again? there are sectors that just will not recover from this for a while. themos: yes, and this is why the timing of the vaccine is very important. indicators,ot of looking at the odds of the good judgment project showing a vaccine being delivered at the

end of the year. i think that to the extended they can look forward to a vaccine being delivered reasonably soon, they are willing to -- to the extent that markets are looking forward to a vaccine being delivered reasonably soon, as long as they can open reasonably soon, backwards and forwards movement abound -- around the reopen are going to be secondary. francine: where do you see the biggest concern about a second full lockdown? i know what you do with economics and researching markets, but sometimes it feels like the market is so focused on a vaccine and not really ignoring some of the default possibilities. look, youah, i mean, have seen countries like indonesia over the last couple of days, where they have been discussing the lockdown and that

has had an impact on local assets. we have seen countries like israel have big political divides around the necessity and the desire for a second lockdown. but i do think that when it comes to the major -- and you see the u.k. as well, right? i do think when it comes to the major economies, the desire for a lockdown, a fresh lockdown, is very little. tom: thank you so much, themos it,akis, really appreciate from one point capital. a briefing here with markets up 30. foreign exchange markets just churning over the last couple of days. coming up on bloomberg markets, professor fisher. he was the fed vice chair, the government of the bank of israel, and of course always and forever associated with the massachusetts institute of technology. stan fischer, awarded the pozen

price yesterday. look for that at 11:00 a.m. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tesla plans to ship cars made at its factory in shanghai to other markets in asia and europe. bloomberg learned that china built tesla model threes intent for delivery outside the country, likely starting

production in the last quarter. islionaire patrick draw he trying to end five years of share volatility in europe. he announces to take the french telecom company he founded private. premium overd 24% thursday's closing price. but it is still far below its recent peak. he already owns a third of the company. and the ceo of mining giant rio tinto is stepping down. jean-sebastian jacques has been under pressure over the country's destruction of aboriginal heritage sites in australia. inquirys criticized an by rio tinto's board. checke will do a data right now with a lift off the markets off a tough close yesterday. and there is a mid-tendency to the level.

27,739. and the vic's slides into a less volatile space, that and the slides- and the vix in. i'm going to call it quiet. 31.42 dollar stasis as well. my going to let francine talk about sterling because it drifts away ever weaker. brexit talks are fraying, and it seems like everyday there is more concerning news about a no deal brexit. the biggest weekly drop since march. the other story, there are a couple of officials from the european central bank that will be speaking later today, and traders will be watching that closely after christine lagarde spurred a rally in the euro yesterday when she delivered relatively mild comments on the currency's surge.

it will be interesting to see how officials will position that. we already have this morning, the chief economist at the ecb sending -- setting a tougher tone on friday, signaling that more monetary stimulus may be needed. so we have that, and coming up on bloomberg markets, we will speak with the irish minister of finance of public expenditures, so maybe he will have a thing or two to say about euro. that interview coming up at 10:00 a.m. in new york and 3:00 p.m. in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪

."m: "bloomberg surveillance on this september 11, i am tom keene in new york, francine

lacqua in london as well. we will have more remembrances this morning. stay with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. 19th a very different remember its of september 11, a year of pandemic, a year of politics. we address politics, folding it right into pandemic, with elliot hentov, really focused on policy . i have never bought the idea that policy really matters, when people go in the booth. undecideds 10 to 14% voters now in america, do they care about your world? do they care about policy? i don't know if the voters care, but i can tell you my investment advice. they care about policy because policy really does drive economic and financial outcomes. the number you quoted this year is much lower. when it comes down to the voting block that we are really

following, we are not speaking of 10%, 14% of undecided voters in the u.s., we are speaking of a much smaller group, roughly around 5%. one can wonder who is really undecided. more likely they are undecided whether they are going to participate in the election more than anything else. they are not undecided. you are right come at this point there probably in different that you are right, at this point they are probably -- you are right, at this point they are probably undecided. policy is not their brand, that is not how they attract votes. tom: exactly. you are really experienced and varied at the foreign policy front. i'm going to suggest on september 11, there is far more a focus on domestic issues, including these two candidates visiting shanksville, pennsylvania. audience,ternational

that is in the southwest corner of the state of pennsylvania. elliot hentov, what will be the message of the two candidates in pennsylvania? elliot: the messages really are about the future of domestic development for the u.s. what is the emphasis? what kind of nationbuilding do the respective candidates envision? we obviously know what the trump platform is. biden will try to contrast that with haim -- with a much more inclusive aspect. but i think foreign policy plays a big role in this election because the big difference will feel -- and also foreign investors will feel, is the ripple effect of potential change of the white house. you have to think the last 3, 4 years, how much volatility in the market as has been driven by impulses coming out of the white house. so theoretically a change there would be very welcome for global markets. it would probably be kind of a

little bit of a choice between a high and a low candidate. if we are looking to shanksville pennsylvania, that is the market perspective of the two foreign policies at stake. francine: what exactly is at stake with the election? is it the dollar as a reserve currency? is it a trade war? what are the markets focusing on? elliot: the markets have been relatively unfocused on the election thus far. the pandemic has overshadowed everything else, for the right reasons. equitiesth on the market, and there is elevated uncertainty be on the election, meaning clearly some parts of the market are worried that we will not get the clarity that we are seeking on november 3, probably not even by november 5 or november 7. but otherwise markets have been pretty unperturbed. but the election does matter. it matters for equities. we are going to move from what i

call a beta machine where basically the trump platform is good for shareholders of all types. it is just a broad-based an alpha to more of regime where biden will imposed taxes and regulatory changes. it rewards some and punishes others, so a selective written -- so a selective investment regime. it matters to the degree that we are in a weaker -- in a weakening dollar cycle now, and that is fine. you know, every 5, 7 years there is a switch in the dollar cycle. but the question is, do we get a disorderly path, a volatile path toward the weaker dollar, or do we get a very smooth, incremental one? that is really the ripple effect. because the reserve currency, the dollar really amplifies all sorts of asset prices across other global markets. two it is a key question to

think about, and that stems from the election. francine: does the white house have an impact on brexit? not the e.u.-u.k. negotiations, but also on u.k.-u.s.? elliot: largely. brexit is a story of structural rigidities that is fairly -- there are few actors that can really move or solve the conundrum. it does change the optics brexiteersht now the in the u.k. enjoyed an ally and the white house. so at least with the political optics and the political tone, it helps. it helps make the case, and helps the prospect of a trade deal. the biden administration would be less supportive in that regard. but we were talking about asset prices, that in the market it matters fairly little. brexit will be solved in london and brussels, nowhere else. francine: elliot hentov, thank

you so much. let's get to the bloomberg first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: president trump is playing hardball with the chinese parent of tiktok, refusing to extend the september tiktok'sne to sell off u.s. operations. the president says if there is no sale by tuesday, the u.s. will shut down tiktok for security reasons. bloomberg has learned a sale is unlikely in time because new --nese regulations another revelation from bob woodward's upcoming book about donald trump, woodward writing -- it took place in a -- president trump wanted the u.s. to be designated a developing nation like china and india.

iranian hackers have -- the company says hackers have targeted both the trump and the biden campaigns. it warns that other targets include political parties, and the sea groups, and academics. china denies the allegations and says microsoft should not be making things out of nothing. 10 people have died in that massive wildfire in northern california, and 16 others are missing. more than 2000 homes and buildings have been destroyed, roughly 14,000 firefighters trying to put out more than two dozen bushfires that are reaching from the oregon border to just north of mexico. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. he is the former chancellor of the exchequer from a time ago.

in alamont will join us more fractious moment for his united kingdom. please stay with us on the september 11. from london and from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are not working for a hard brexit, but we need to have a tax partner to have a deal. what we are stressing now, it is up to the -- we need to have a tactful partner to have a deal. what we are stressing now, it is up to the british government to establish trust. francine: that was the e.u.

economy and financial affairs commissioner, paolo gentiloni. despite the u.k. rejecting the ..u.'s ultimatum, norman lamont joins us. we have had him on the program. thank you so much for joining us. given the state of negotiations right now, what is the likelihood that the u.k. leaves in january without a deal? isman: i still think it 50/50. i thought that before this latest dispute, but i still think there is a possibility of a deal. i have always thought that before there was a deal, there would be some drama, there would be some breakdown, people would walk away, and then people would get together and argue it out. it looks difficult, but i still think that's possible. i believe that boris johnson what does -- i believe that

boris johnson does want to have a deal. whatever the maneuver going on, whatever is being applied, i think in his heart of hearts, he wants a deal. francine: what is the wider impact of the government openly admitting it is breaking international law? norman: it was a most staggering thing for the northern ireland secretary to say. of course, since he said it, the attorney general has come out publishing some advice and publishing her own opinion, which is much more nuanced. and while admitting that there is some conflict between the action the british government might take and its obligations internationally, she is arguing this is not an unprecedented situation. i think it's going to be very difficult to persuade the house of lords, which i am a member, to accept this argument. but i think we have a duty to listen carefully to what all officers say. obviously we have not signed off

from this lightly. there is one point about the northern island protocol that is thatade of enough, that is it has huge numbers of loose ends, worse loose ends, blatant contradictions, and it was always going to require some amending and some changing. i think the british government had a good case in arguing that. it was inevitable that there would be changes. but it is over the method by is a change that this latest dispute has arisen. tom: you fought the wars of erm and the budget wars afterwards, and granted, it was a completely different time and place, particularly amid higher interest rates. what are your thoughts on the conservative tack of austerity? how is austerity and budget-cutting the things that you were acclaimed for back then

long ago and far away -- how is austerity treated now in 2020? very goodll, it is a question. i think we are in a different world with low interest rates, negative interest rates in some cases. there are two points i would make about it. one, looking backwards, i don't think it would be right to say that austerity in the past was misplaced. it was a different world. austerity was necessary, and austerity is just another word for living within one's means. as regards today, although the world looks very different, interest rates are low or negative. there can be no 100% certainty that this will last forever, and as you know better than i, the world is divided into deflationists.ds for that reason, if we have deflation, soaring debt will

become an unbearable burden. if we have inflation, interest rates will go up, raising the cost, perhaps the real cost of debt as well. so there is no magic money tree, and i still think we cannot just march into modern monetary economics such as gold and think we've got a cost free world. atlantic,across the jeremy corbyn seems to be an item of history, i guess. does prime minister johnson risk losing power from the conservatives within the chaos on brexit? does he risk giving it all back to the center and to labor? norman: we are a long way from an election, four years away. i think it is very difficult to see through the mists of covid, how things are going to emerge. with myself, uncomfortable the level of government spending, but i don't believe that we should be cutting back

now or raising taxes now. i think we've got to have a couple of years, a year, two years, before we address the budget deficit, but i think we should address it. and i hope that prime minister a johnson will agree with that. chancellor will be pressing him to do that. it would not be right to do that now because we have to address the economy and get a grip. francine: would you extend furlough program? norman: i'm sorry, i didn't hear. francine: would you extend the furlough programs to make sure that we have a robust recovery? extend no, i would not the furlough program because i think the furlough program is giving a perverse incentive. it is encouraging people to stay away from work. i do think we need possibly a different sort of incentive, perhaps wage subsidies in certain sectors. i mean, other countries like

germany and france have extended their help with the labor market, have extended their help to people who are unemployed, but i don't think the furlough scheme in its present form would be the right way to do it. i think a different approach would be needed. i do think we are quite likely inface a very sharp rise unemployment. the bank of england says 2.7 million by christmas. some people think it could be more than that. tom: lord lamont, thank you for joining us today. norman lamont, former united kingdom chancellor of the exchequer in the united kingdom. coming up on bloomberg markets, as francine mentioned, the island minister of finance, driving forward this conversation for the moment for the u.k. and for europe. that in the 10:00 hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." it is one of the biggest debt deals ever in asia, and it

raised $8 billion in its first nonconvertible dollar bond sale in at least two decades, and now it has become a public euro bond sale. the fundraising comes after recording its biggest lost in about 20 years. the owner of new york sports clubs -- new york sports club will file for bankruptcy today. the plan to get new financing fell through. negotiating an $80 million capital injection. u.s. collegeske like harvard and princeton are finding lots of their bonds from international investors. in a world of falling interest rates, there is a field that has helped u.s. universities sell about $36 billion of bonds this year. that is the most since at least 2004. that is your bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much -- francine: thank you so much.

jane fraser will become the first chemo to lead a major wall street -- will become the first female to lead a major wall street bank, succeeding mike corbat, at citibank. great to have you on the program. when you look at what the appointment means, she is the first female to be appointed at a major wall street bank. does it mean that the culture is changing, or does it show how far behind we still are? >> i wouldn't get all that excited. the numbers at the top of the banks have been pretty stagnant, less than 30% of the executive's are women, and most of those women, many of those women are in nonoperational roles, meaning they are not up for ceo candidacy. but she wasare bad, named president less than a year ago. and before that she ran a that was less than 15%

of citigroup revenue. so it shows that you can look more broadly. tom: that is a fabulous ratio perspective. she come in and be the hatchet? the bottom line is that, here it is. j.p.morgan is price-to-book 1.30. bank of america a little lower, .90. aknow that you have completely unacceptable .61 at citigroup. what is the urgency of ms. ser to write the corporate -- thati: you cannot imagine there investors are super patient. with that said, we are in the middle of a pandemic. banks have taken billions of dollars in positioning and citibank has a huge -- citi has a huge global business.

the urgency is there, but it doesn't look so great that the stagnants has been since michael corbat took over in 2012. francine: so as she takes over citigroup, what does she need to do first? sonali: the technology issues are a big question mark. jane did take over citigroup less than one year ago, so while her move to the top was pretty widely telegraphed, the timing is a big head scratcher across all of wall street. why so quickly? why less than a year? there must have been some pretty significant demand here. the timing is very interesting. the technology issues are something that she is going to have to contend with. citigroup just accidentally delivered about $900 million. tom: yeah, i got my check. sonali: [laughter] that is something reg leaders have to

look at. -- that regulators have to look at. when it comes to consumer banking, her rivals are investing heavily. so same problem. tom: you have got to come back on. you're doing great here. this has been a fabulous report. they are way behind in retail, right? sonali: they need to be investing there, but there has to be investing at a time when they have to keep a clamp on costs. some had tips here to jane fraser, in the short time she ran the business, she was able to bring over some significant people. the creator of j.p.morgan, the widely popular set fire reserve senior woman at wells fargo, it is creating some noise across the industry, and a hat tip to my colleague for breaking a lot of that news. tom: the article today is great. i will put that on twitter, folks. sonali basak with an understanding of the why here,

of michael corbat to jane fraser. there is more to talk about on the sick amber 11. there will be six remembrances today, as there is each year. this year decidedly different because of the pandemic. there will be some major changes in what you will observe, beginning in the 8:00 hour in new york city, and of course services at the pentagon, and then onto to shanksville, pennsylvania. in our next hour, on america, and on our capitalism, luigi zingales of the school in chicago. point 87.es up one the dollar flat. please stay with us. london, this, from is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪

the big events are back. xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. tom: this morning, this 11th of september, the resilience of the

market. j.p.morgan says now is the time most of sales in trading -- they will return to the office. citibank says now is the time jay fraser must go in church of greater profits. this -- jane fraser must go in search of greater profits. trump and biden -- they will pause at shanksville, pennsylvania. on this 11th of september, the resilience of new york city, washington, and america. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." it is such a different 9/11 this year. francine, i cannot convey the overlay of the pandemic and september 11, the cadence that we have, and how changed it is this year. francine: i think you're talking about the memorials. in the past there was always a memorial, minutes of silence observed. because people cannot meet in place, we rely on the images. you do not havepl