>> good data quality has been to terry rating for several years, but has been really bad during this crisis. >> we have been on an unsustainable trajectory in terms of continuing the low debt onto the balance sheet. >> what concerns me right now is the unemployed that remain are not getting as much. >> the fed is out of ammunition. the dollar is weakening. >> as much as i appreciate everything the fed is doing, i am not sure they have the tools to do everything right. >> this is "bloomberg keene,lance," with tom jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. morning, everyone. lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro, and tom keene, truly an historic

day for the federal reserve system. it is a meeting of mystery. our michael mckee will be there for the press conference, special coverage this afternoon. but right now, a great conversation on some of the challenges that we are going to see. jon ferro, to me, the major challenge, with futures up 17, you mentioned this earlier, this morning, is the two americans that are out there, that two americans that are out there right now, jon ferro, are nothing like what john edwards ever thought he would see. jonathan: just compare and contrast, tom, take the airlines on one hand -- you can take any sector, the retail sector, and compare it to fintech right now. big tech on fire. other companies, tom, literally slashing in tens of thousands, and a central bank that has to set policy for both economies. that is a tremendously difficult position to be in as a central bank right now, and that will create distortion. some would argue that is already happening. tom: lisa abramowicz, within

your reading, is there any salvation for small businesses? jamie dimon can work for john powell, j.p. morgan, john deere out in the midwest of the country, but what about small business, the fabric of the nation? lisa: this has been a huge issue, because small banks do a lot of lending to the businesses, i just want to point out, though, that the two americas, the -- two the haves and the have-nots, there is some conversion starting with the second wave of layoffs, and this is important, especially as big banks announce their biggest week of layoffs that is to come, since the financial crisis more than a decade ago. tom, i think this is important. you cannot have a dual economy like this without some collateral damage that. . really affects the entire economy. tom: we will see, and we welcome all of you on bloomberg television, radio, simulcast. thank you for your love notes for jon ferro and lisa

abramowicz, and the hate mail i have been getting, jon, has been just arduous. to be honest, and this is the only reason we booked oppenheimer, it has been painful, john, they love and affection of arsenal that i have seen in the last number of days and the top, i mean, the loss was terrible, but i just pulled rank here and said get me a spurs fan. jonathan: "a spurs fan"? wow. you actually said it. the next guest actually calls them by the correct name. tom: that would be true. jonathan: who are they anyway? tom: i can't pronounce them. you know, they whooped them. jonathan: peter oppenheimer joins us now, chief global equity strategist at goldman sachs. peter, i normally have to deal with this by myself. can you explain to tom keene,

please, who garrett sale is and why you might be happy very soon? peter: thank you, thank you, john. just to correct them i think he was talking about entertain, but veryheless, we saw concerned about the prospects. yeah, it is going to be a tricky thing for them to save. tom: you know, what is so important here, peter oppenheimer, seriously, save the day, but far more importantly, a huge part of this market needs to be saved if they are not amazon and they are not apple, and i love, love, love the phrase you coined "the hope phase." right nowe hope phase for investors and the huge body of people who do not own the highflying techs? peter: firstly, what is "the

hope phase"? virtually, every bull market starts in a recession, after a period of four or five years, when investors, for some reason, start to get more optimistic about a recovery, and that initial hope phase, the hope of recovery, tends to be reflected in quite the explosive rises in stock prices, maybe by generation expansion, and that is exactly what we have seen, really, since march. what you say, though, is interesting, that this new phase, this new cycle has been the same leadership as we were seeing before, with the technologies, growth companies continue to outperform significantly. the old economy and the deep value cost to market, but it is consistent with this ongoing shift to more negative real interest rates, and actually the disruption that we are seeing as a result of the technology companies, changing the nature of many of the traditional

businesses as the digital revolution continues. so i think, strategically, we are in a new bull market phase. that is a good thing. but the secular trend is likely to be quite similar in terms of leadership. jonathan: peter, you have made the argument, though, that europe does not have to be left for dead here. this is not just the united states' big tech story. can you walk us through the argument you have been making over the last several months? let's look, again, back at the last cycle, that appeared after the financial crisis. it was marked by very good returns in financial assets as rates came down, but the u.s. is a massive outperform or come over all equity markets, and the many reasons -- it is not the only 1 -- the main reason, with its exposure to the thing that we are doing very well -- technology -- where is europe, of course, had a massive exposure to the areas of the market that were really at the epicenter of the crisis, you know, it had about one-fourth of

its investment in banks, another 1/10 in oil, for example. as we roll into where we are today, banks have fallen to 6% index in europe. we have technology about being twice the size of the oil sector. thehile it does not have same significant concentration of leaders in technology in europe as we do, the market is becoming more growthy, and it is becoming more less -value-orientated. and what you have is a similar style of concentration. you have the top 10 or 11 companies in europe, that have standing to be the starting lesson in each of their names. even these companies, which are cash-generative, strong balance sheets, a combination of technology, health care, and that is really, again, what the

market is paying for in an environment of otherwise weak growth and very low rates, and i think that will probably continue. lisa: grown-overs? did i get that right? that is a new one for me. [laughs] how much do you expect u.s. equities to outperform over the next, say, one, two years? peter: we do not see much outperformance, we just see much similar performance, but i think that is increasing in itself, it is just more geographical diversification. you know, the last 10 years, we saw huge dominance of the u.s., and now i think we will get much more similar returns across the region, speaking in dollar terms, because we think the dollar's weakness that we have seen in the recent past will continue, silver for dollar investors, there will be some benefit to diversification from investors,ollar there will be some benefit to diversification from the dollar, and also, again, we should also

be looking more at opportunities, where our companies driving, irrespective of region? i will give you know example, companies in europe, at the epicenter of the renewables revolution, have actually outperformed the nasdaq over the last couple of years. and there are pockets of growth, though i think investors should be focused outside of the u.s. tom: peter oppenheimer, you went right where i wanted to go. you are reading my mind, on the alpha generation necessary right now. what i want to talk about is ray dalio's interview yesterday with erik schatzker, and he talked about literally blind diversification. i do not buy that for a single second. peteres oppenheimer -- how do you define a diversification away from stocks? what is your approach? peter: it is a great question,

and it goes beyond where you go for equity. bear in mind that multi-asset funds, that have grown hugely in the last decade, and have been mixes,ccessful, bonds, generates one of the longest and strongest bull markets in history, and a good chunk of that, given that we are now at the zero bound, is likely to generate a very low return, if not a zero return. so moving up the risk curve is partly what these policies are doing, within the context of equities. i think you need to diversify out of the pure technology growth part of the market or looking at how technology is evolving and entering into medical technology and educational technology and environmental technology. and actually, the environmental drivers of growth, we think, are going to be a really significant theme over the next 10 years or so. it is already really becoming a big focus here in europe with the green deal, which has put

some money behind this idea. it needs a support now and provide growth opportunities, so i think despite the challenges economically, it is fair to say they are -- there are some real growth engines and opportunities that are still available for investors, if they look to diversify away from the concentration of a very small number of names. jonathan: peter, great to catch up. look forward to seeing you soon. pete oppenheimer of goldman sachs, an important conversation. i know you are dying to talk about garrett sales, so let's talk about it, real madrid, gets paid about 6000 sterling a week, and the big question is whether the spurs come if they do get hold of him, will they pay has wages? will real madrid have to pay his wages to get him on loan over to the spurs and get some of that money up the wage bill? tom: we make jokes, folks, but i uninformed.

cut to the chase -- is 31 years old old in soccer? jonathan: no. bale, like gareth cristiano ronaldo, who are just supreme athletes, this breed, tom, have built themselves up and really embrace being in the gym and committing themselves to this career. i think they could have a career well into the next years. theink gareth bale, it is injuries, not the age. tom: he reminds me of roy can't. he is outstanding. lt. gov. hochul: -- jonathan: neil dutta, renaissance macro research, head of u.s. economic research, is coming up. you were going to have to explain that joke coming up. [laughter] this is bloomberg. ritika: when the first word news, this is ready to hurricane sally is bringing -- this is ritika gupta.

hurricane sally is bringing a bunch of rain to gulf shores, alabama. sally is now a category 2 hurricane with now 100 mile an hour winds. president trump is trying to decide whether to approve oracle's alliance with tiktok. they will examine the company's proposal. the president has ellanded that tiktok s for national security reasons. predicting interest rates will stay near 0 until 2023. jeromen jarma powell will talk to reporters after a meeting. amazon wants to make shopping online about as fast as a quick run to the store. bloomberg has learned the world's largest online retailer will open 1000 hubs in cities and suburbs all over the u.s. that will help amazon take on walmart better when it comes to same-day delivery.

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>> markets are always, always too pessimistic about recovery from a crisis. this is no different the

previous crisis. they have failed to predict demand, the speed of consumers, in the face of a challenge. jonathan: we will speak to a man who did not believe things would not snap back quickly. he believed they would. that was paul donovan of ubs. in just a moment, i am looking forward to that conversation. several hours after that, you will hear from the federal reserve and chairman powell. euro-dollar $1.1860. the renminbi strengthened overnight, and the bond market at a single basis weight at 0.67%. $39.12, just south of $40. tom mentioned it i moment ago, several months ago, you had to be constructive on this economy. there was almost a social stigma attached to it, because you sounded somewhat crazy. moves ton, data has

the upside pretty consistently, and a small fragment of wall street, tom, you have got to say, they got it right. tom: jon, the resiliency of the market, part of the image of looking forward to what the economy is going to do is profound. for example, in 2007, when you and i and everybody else went to cash, the dow was down about 13,000. now the dow is at 28,000. one of our great glass half-full economists is neil dutta of renaissance macro, and on this day of an important fed meeting, he is the optimistic one. jerometta, how will powell reframe the optimism the fed believes in? neil: i think you will see some of that, tom, just frankly in their economic projections. the unappointed rate is lower than where they thought it would be back in june. inflation is somewhat higher than they thought it would be in june. growth looks like it is coming

in a little bit firmer, so you will see, i think, i think just a marked assessment and upward forecasts,f their and they would not be changing anything. despite improving data, the fed is quite accommodative and plans to be so for the foreseeable future. it is just how they communicate that accommodation to the market is really the only debate that is left, and it remains to be seen whether they do that at this meeting. but they are going to stayed others, and they are upping their foreig forecast. it is still a dovish shift, because they are not changing what they are doing, than that is good for markets. jonathan: neil, we have got to give you a victory lap, we really do, you are constructive when the data was drowning, and we were all dripping into man gloom, with good reason at the time. walk us through the signposts you are looking for and the things that help you guide your trajectory through all of this and shape a forecast that turns

out to be more accurate than most. neil: well, i think you just start from an initial premise of you can either believe, a, america somehow this uniquely failed develop state or not, and, i don't know, i think not. and there is nothing about the last 10 years, since the financial crisis, that tells me that europe is going to come out of this better than we would. i mean, so, look -- and that is the premise i start from. you know, to me, obviously the march and april period were very painful, but we are slowly reopening, and the primary strength, i think, on consumer spending has been a physical one. i mean, if you look at disposable income, because what the government has done, it is actually higher now than it was in february, so -- and if you look at things like deposits at commercial banks, they are still quite elevated, which tells me that, you know, to some extent,

people have not actually spent a lot of the money that they were given to give themselves -- get themselves through the crisis. now is the economy has reopened, it is very encouraging to see that cases are coming down in most of the country. we have had some flareups, for example, in college towns and places in the midwest, but generally speaking, cases are down, and we do a better job suppressing the virus, that gives us more coverage. we will continue to open things in the economy and the country. for example, in new york, a city that has embraced very strict lockdowns, we are going to indoor dining at the end of the month. san francisco is reopening. that is going to help. there is no doubt about that in my mind. and that will mitigate some of the pressure others were talking about. if you think state and local government revenues or a problem now, do you think they will be more or less of a problem a month from now? i am going to guess less. that does not mean things are good. a lot of this depends on who you

talk to. if you talk to an academic economist, most of them will talk about levels, and the level in the economy is nowhere anybody wants it to be. but i am a business economist. my primary job is to tell our clients whether i think the growth of the economy is going to be sufficient to continue the upward momentum in equity prices and markets generally or not. and if that is the question i am being asked, the answer to that question is, yes, the economy can motor ahead, and for investors, that means maybe you want to think about going into those names that require people to actually have some proximity to other people as opposed to, you know, names where you just dream something on your tv all day long. lisa: neil, do you think the economy is strong enough to not need another round of fiscal support? neil: i think, at this point, for the markets, i don't think it matters at this point. you know, that is what i determine as need.

but in terms of people, there is no excuse for the government not to do something. i mean, we can borrow money today and pay back less after inflation 10 years from now. i'm assuming there's more of a need for the money today. we may as well do it. there is no excuse not to think for now, the pace of reopening is probably going to offset some of the fiscal people were talking about in august. and remember, folks were looking e. coyote moment in august. limitationstatute of and what do we see? it has generally strengthened over the month. it does not mean people were not hurt, but there are offsetting factors. cases are coming down, incomes are rising. are rollingey bearish calls. you know that, neil, with no expiring. neil: ok, well, i mean, then people -- you should not be

listening to those people to begin with, right? at the end of the day, you have to make a call on markets, tying the economic outlook to some kind of a market perspective, otherwise, you know, you are not creating any value for people. tom: can you imagine neil dutta asking questions in a press conference? jonathan: i would love to see that. i wasnspired up today to ilst joking in the end, but ne is fired up today. dutta, head of u.s. economic research, thank you. he called it right, particularly the markets. neil dutta came on this program, i remember one week of the unemployment trend in early may, and neilit was ugly, came out and said it will get better and get better quickly, and it was so hard to believe him out the time.

tom: that is true. i want to make it clear to folks who keep score of not only who is on plan, on target, unbelief, but we really panting to do what they're doing quarter to quarter. jonathan: coming up, state assembly, u.s. retail sales, next on "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ♪ you can go your own way

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jonathan: your morning starts right now on bloomberg surveillance. live on bloomberg tv and radio alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. retail sales in america about to drop. with the numbers, here is michael mckee. michael: the new system from the government, everything is released at the same time. tom: waiting and waiting and waiting. michael: pour tom keene is going crazy. we are just getting the number. the august number is 16% gain for retail sales, well below what was forecast. half of what we had last month. transportation, .7, also well below what was forecast. group,ail sales control the one the economists tend to

focus on because it is what goes into gdp, and it shows it fell .1%. the forecast was for .3% gain. in july at rose 1.4%. we are looking at a much slower than forecast august retail sales experience. that may be confirmation of what a lot of people suspected, that once the 600 dollar extra unemployment benefit went away and a lot of the paycheck protection money ran out, people would stop spending as much. taking a quick look at the numbers for the different categories, looking at food and beverage stores, 1.2%. that you would not think would be affected by the $600 because people have to eat, but maybe they stopped up in advance. the one people would look at, clothing and accessories, two point 9% is a reasonably healthy gain. this is back to school. to the extent people are going

back to school and not dressing up to sit in front of their computers, there was some gains. sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and bookstores down. department stores down 2.3%. the non-store retailers were flat. amazon, people like that. food services and drinking places, tom keene helped. up 4.7%. that is real discretionary spending. tom: thank you for that. i say good morning to three guys on madison avenue every morning. the bond market moves on this, two basis points. the 10 year yield into .66. maybe we will see that lower. let's look at the revisions to the not so good numbers we just saw. the revisions have a weaker feel and this goes to the point. on bloomberg radio, we are showing the chart of the 10 year yield.

michael mckee put together two months of the data being weaker. michael: you look at retail sales for july, they were originally reported up 1.2%. instead they come in at .9%. the retail control group was reported at a 1.4% gain, it is a .9% gain. retail sales are heavily revised. the numbers capture what happens in the first part of the month. it'll be interesting to see what happens with august as people had less money in their pocketbooks. lisa: are there seasonal expectations based on the idea we are trying to fit the data into a narrative, i am guilty of this, basically trying to fit into a narrative of slower consumer spending has the additional $600 runs off. are there other explanations? michael: not really. we would expect to see a bigger retail sales gain in august because of back to school.

we did see an effect in july. i have not broken it down enough. here is the number. 20.7%y we saw a gain of in electronics stores. people were out buying computers for their kids. a lot of schools did start in august. we did see a change from previous years, only up .8% for electronic stores. that is the kind of thing you would look for. and of course apparel stores and the back-to-school shopping season. a lot of people try to look at the numbers to see if they tell you what holiday spending will be like. this year you cannot do that because you do not know the ark of covid at this point. jonathan: great to catch up. great breakdown. michael mckee, international economic and policy correspondent as retail sales drop. a downside surprise. for markets, it is relative game. relative to expectations, rare downside.

3400, still up, north of up .4 percent on the session. the dollar is weaker and stays that way. just a little bit of a bit into the bond market at the long end, that is a flatter curve. yields lower does go basis points 2.66%. in. the real yield comes a solid two basis point to assist us with this is someone writing wonderful on the american economy, stephen stanley of amherst pierpont. how do you bring the retail numbers plus provisions, does it make you adjust your guesstimate of gdp? stephen: i have take attacked that is exactly the opposite of what neil was saying, and i think you have to pay attention to the levels. the thing about retail sales, and this is an amazing develop, but retail sales in july were

already higher than the pre-pandemic levels. we already more than recovered what we lost in the lockdown. it would be tougher to get gains in august. it is a disappointment at the margins, but the fact is retail sales have recovered amazingly since the lockdown. lisa: you agree with neil dutta that the u.s. economy looks strong enough and has enough momentum to not need an additional round of fiscal support. stephen: largely i would agree with what he said. it is interesting because everyone was saying the economy would fall off the table if the benefits expired, and it did not. the markets also were supposedly dependent on seeing that continued fiscal largess, and we did not get it in the markets have moved on. we do need some level of support. it would be nice to get some level of bonus benefits, it would be nice for companies to be able to go back into a second round of ppp loans, maybe

something for state and local governments, but i do not think the economy, the economic recovery depends on it the way a lot of folks were thinking a few months ago. you agree with the administration that this is a self-sustaining recovery that does not necessarily require a fiscal aid package? yes.en: in the aggregate, the way democrats are looking at it is not long, either -- is not wrong, either, that even if the broader economy is doing ok there are still people who need help. i would not disagree. getting help to people who are unemployed, getting help to businesses still having trouble does make sense. i do not think the broad macro aonomy needs a two point -- $2 trillion or $3 trillion booster shot to continue growing. tom: the idea of half-full, half-empty, chairman powell have

to juggle this today. how do you expect he will express the uncertainty that attends this meeting? stephen: the fed is somewhere beyond half-empty. the fed looks at every situation and tries to find the black lining and the silver cloud at this point. i guess you could argue that is probably the right thing to do the fed can handle that. the fed has been expecting the worst since the pandemic broke, and i do not see any reason to change that. i think the fed feels the need to support the economy anyway they can come and one of the most important ways they can do that is by ensuring the markets they are there and they will provide support. the markets have gotten the message with an exclamation point in stocks and in other risk assets. that,i like how you put

which brings me to asset bubbles. you get the sense that fed is worried at all about elevated prices? stephen: i don't. i don't think the fed has come to grips with the role they have played in creating inflated asset prices over last several cycles. that, we arethink probably just going to see rolling asset bubbles every cycle. the fed is still of the view they should be easy until consumer price inflation takes off, and it certainly has not over the 20 years or so. i think they are fully on board with the idea they can be as easy as they please for as long as they want, and if we get high asset prices that is fine. jonathan: i asked this earlier this morning. chairman powell is aware of this. he has talked about it. at the economic club of new york

several years ago, when he first became the chairman of the federal reserve. something changed. what has changed? why did that change for him? stephen: he has gone through a rapid evolution over his term as chairman. listens tour had an impact on the way the fed thinks about things. i think they listened to people who normally are not listened to with regard to monetary policy, people in low income communities , community activists, people like that. they have taken that on board. it is a very different fed. it is almost a social justice fed rather than the traditional thought of a green eyeshade, someone just looking at numbers and not thinking about the

social aspects of things. whether that is a good or bad thing remains to be seen. the fed is very different in the way they approach things than they were a few years ago. jonathan: it's great to catch up. stephen stanley of amherst pierpont securities. i do not think you can overstate how much the fed has changed over last couple of years and how much chairman powell has changed. there were not talk like there used to be. they are gone. tom: to that point, you can tell when they get comfortable in the very bright lights and the huge pressures. you can hear their voice change. you heard that with denver 90, you heard it -- you heard that with ben bernanke, you heard it with chairman powell, they get comfortable with the pressure. there'll be a lot of pressure at 2:00 today with futures up 12. jonathan: i think market participants have got a lot more

comfortable with this federal reserve. .33%y futures, we advance on the s&p 500 on this fed decision day. from new york and london, good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance" with equity futures up 12. this is bloombergtechtv your -- this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president trump promising his long-awaited replacement for obamacare is ready. he made the statement in a town hall on abc. he made the promise his plan will be released in a couple of weeks, only for the deadline to come and go. joe biden made his most direct appeal to hispanic voters. joe biden made his first trip to rallya and told the president trump has failed the hispanic community time again. latinos are a crucial loading block in florida, one of the key battleground states.

thee from the wildfires on west coast has made its way to the east coast. it has been spotted high this guy over washington, d.c. some of the world's most polluted cities are now in california, oregon, and washington state. a new report from congress rips boeing over the two 737 max crashes. investigators concluded the disasters occurred because of sweeping failures by boeing engineers. and significant errors in government oversight. the report as a template or reform that house have been seeking. boeing says it has taken steps to improve safety. the federal trade commission is preparing a pop -- a possible antitrust suit against facebook. the case could be filed by the end of the year. is looking into allegations that facebook uses its powerful market position to stifle competition. global news 24 hours a day, on

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>> we do look forward to having people back in the office.

what we are looking at is the productivity you get if people have the ability to work from home some days and be in the office when the rest of their team or teams are in the office. if you can say people commute times, you have better access to talent because you are solving what people want in their personal life. it will result in a better outcome. what that means for real estate, we are still figuring out. jonathan: that was the alphabet cfo. ,oming up next on bloomberg tv catching up with bob michele of jp morgan, chief investment officer as we get set up for a fed decision. looking forward to that check shortly. tom: bob michele debt on on lower interest rates. -- dead on on lower interest rates. he has been stunning in his view of lower interest rates. futures up 14. yields off retail sales with the

revision two months in a row. we come in two basis points to four digits, .6576. interview,important not for lisa abramowicz or myself, but for david rubenstein , peer-to-peer conversations. he has put together a wonderful she isinterviews because an academic out of an academic family. her father was an acclaimed physicist. maybe more than know when i know has she straddled superior academics with the business world as well. we are thrilled david rubenstein could join us. she isso different -- not just another cfo, is she? david: she is not. she was the cfo of morgan stanley and was recruited to be the cfo of google and is now the cfo of alphabet. she is rumored to be a potential

secretary of the treasury if there ever is a female secretary of the treasury, she has a good chance of being among the first to get that position. academics surrounded by experience. how did you take your tack in your peer-to-peer conversation? david: i have known her for a while and admired what she has done and i wanted to get a contrast between the atmosphere in morgan stanley and the atmosphere in the tech world and how she has tried to adjust. the interview did do that. she would say there is a lot of testosterone in the financial world and the tech world, but may be more collaboration in the tech world. she would also say that why they have hundred 20,000 employees in google, -- 120,000 employees in google, she looks forward to them coming back. when you can work collaboratively together, talking to people in the hallways does produce better results. can you talk about what

the new work environment will look like? she was talking about how she is hoping everyone can get back together in person. it will not be the same, is it? david: most employers recognize some of their employees can be more productive working at home remotely. she recognizes getting some of them to come back a couple days a week will be better. i suspect most tech companies would like to have their employees back three to four days a week and work remotely one or two days a week. that would be a good conversation. lisa: what about you, do you feel the same you are eager to get your employees back to work at this point, whatever it takes ? if it takes transportation, allowing them to work from home? david: we want them to get back to work in the office but we recognize there is a lot of challenges. until we have testing everybody is comfortable with, until we have a vaccine, i do not think everybody will be comfortable,

but our main offices in new york or london or washington will be a challenge to get everybody back for some time. tom: i have to turn to business events. i'm sure it is something that porat has been looking at as well, the remarkable construction of oracle, tiktok, and some form of the chinese government. i do not know if you advised on this, but your thoughts on this ?riginal amalgamation david: i am not involved, nor is our firm involved, it is clear microsoft was interested, it is clear oracle came up with a formula that seems to work. it is an interesting formula. it is not clear the chinese will not still be involved. whether cfius will prove it is not clear and i suspect it will not get fully resolved for some time. doesis it a one-off or

this portend a trend of political transactions? david: if there is political benefit in making these things more difficult for the chinese to pursue things, i suspect we will see more of this. we are in election season and everything is different than it will be after the election. between now and the time of the election this will be the major deal that will get done. it will probably be different after the election. lisa: we've been talking to a lot of analysts today and yesterday. people seem to think we are entering a new bull market. do you agree? david: it is hard to say. i would say after the election, depending on who wins, the market will respond ok. i do want people to remember we have a lot of debt, and at some point the market will wake up and say who will pay for this debt and how will we pay it down, and if interest rates start going up debt will be more expensive. i do not know whether we will have a bull market but i suspect

people will look at things differently after the election. tom: david rubenstein, thank you so much. ruth porat of alphabet, this will be very interesting. peer-to-peer conversations. you can see this tonight, 9:00 p.m. in new york, and thursday, hong kong, 7:00 p.m., and on to london, 7:00 p.m. in london as well. we have a fed meeting. this would be fascinating coming off of retail sales and the attendant moves we see in the bond market. it is another curve in the story, isn't it? lisa: the idea is the u.s. economy seems to be doing pretty well. if you want to follow the narrative that wrote the removal of additional fiscal stimulus is causing a decline in the retail space, you can look at the data. i wonder how they will spin it? they will try to create is an area where washington responds, even though things look better

than they expected. tom: it will be interesting delicacies of the meeting will be nuanced. be at the fedwill meeting. a wonderful line with varied up eating -- with varied opinions. caroline hyde leading our coverage. looking forward to professor blinder of the original economics of the moment with the paul's of the american common 8 -- with the pulse of the american economy. we finish strong with jeffrey rosenberg who will try to brief lisa abramowicz on bonds for the morning. it is interesting with jeff rosenberg to get the dynamics of the fixed income market off of this meeting. lisa: bonds have been dead. they have been so boring. they have been so boring people are turning to fx to do their trading. the question is the fed wants to keep that, what to they have to say to keep it that way?

were what do they not have to say at the meeting? michael mckee at that press conference. please stay with us on radio and television. this is bloomberg. ♪

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, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes until the opening bell. equity futures up 15. we advance .4% and begin with the big issue looking ahead to the fed. >> i cannot imagine they will come up with that many new policies. >> they will stick to the rights policy. >> interest rates are likely to stay in this near zero range. >> the last time the fed came out and change their inflation target. >> why would the markets believe they are ready to bring the inflation over? >> they need to back that up. >> they have to do something extra. >> inflation does not appear to be on the fed radar. >> the fed will emphasize improvement we have seen in the labor market. >> it will be about growth and employment. >> the end employment rate is likely to be lowered. >> it will always be a