♪ the state of quality has been deteriorating for years. this v-shaped reaction or recovery is not going to happen. inflation could come back faster and harder than anyone is expecting. >> as much as i appreciate everything the fed is doing i'm not sure they have the tools. >> austerity does not work. you cannot shrink your way to growth. >> this is "bloomberg tom keenece" with jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.

tom: good morning everybody. "bloomberg surveillance." an extraordinary friday getting ready for october as well. fox, mr. ross drops a bombshell. he will take tiktok away from my children. i don't believe it, including updates. aboutan: shall i be clear what is going to happen? as of monday you won't be able to download the app. if you download the app, you won't get the updates as of monday. as of november 12, if we don't have a deal, that is when the shutdown comes into force. in plain english, that seems to be the story. jonathan: you have to -- tom: you have to believe the chinese will respond to this whether that is the china vehicle of tiktok or the government in beijing as well. an ipo withsider

ystrom of instagram leading the company. to the various point, oracle shares down in trading. this is a transaction, we don't know how to identify it. there is very little visibility. tom: the key phrase is hardline. communication with the americans is clear. how does china react to hardline? jonathan: what is the deadline? what is the hardline? you keep moving the deadline. there is no hardline. if you keep allowing the deals changed, there is no real deadline either. of thisident administration have tried to test the chinese with a harder line. test the chinese

communist party. they have welcomed out to break the status quo of the last 20 years that hasn't got the change from china that many people wanted. this case study alone just shows you how difficult it is to do. initially what this was about was forcing a sale. you can't operate in the united states unless you sell this. you need to sell this. this is the date you need to sell it by. now it has become some kind of partnership with oracle. just move the goalpost several times in the last couple weeks alone. the philadelphia eagles playing football on sunday, everybody will be on we chat. kevin cirilli was on with us moments ago. what is thei, political risk to the trump administration if this is bluster and not policy? kevin: i think there is minimal

political risk. i don't think this is one of the issues that is driving the political conversation in 2020. it feels very divorced from the 2020 conversation. there is such bipartisan understanding and commitment on the path of senior policymakers to reign in china. donovan characterized it very well as a case study in terms of the opportunity the united states has in terms of telling beijing certain companies are not going to be able to come into the u.s. marketplace and do what they want. tom: kevin cirilli, are you suggesting that joe biden will agree with the president and we should shutdown tiktok and we chat? kevin: yes, he won't phrase it like that. i just spoke with the democrat senator for delaware. he's got bipartisan

legislation with people like senator marco rubio that would seek to do just that. reign in china. morerms of their aggressive approach. especially as it relates to intellectual property. the bottom line is this is tiktok ping-pong operating in negotiation publicly, behind-the-scenes, on the front page of all the financial press. this is an open negotiation coming from the trumpet ministration. it says we are not satisfied with what he is hearing. as a result of that, we are fully prepared to shutdown down the app if we don't get the deal we want. it is only credible if they follow through. one of the biggest challenges for any administration in the united states --whoever leads at the next four years --is not necessarily the chinese party, it is at home in the united states.

what we have seen with the walt disney company's they are very happy to go over to china and film for mulan. they are very happy to download tiktok and allow their data to go back to china. i know it is a bipartisan issue. i also understand from the electric point of view -- electorate point of view -- but i haven't seen that translate is the more active consumer based on products, tech, and more proactive on china. kevin, i think that is the challenge of the administration. one, how could they get their allies in other countries to come along with them? two, how could they get the rest of the united states to come with them? from the people, the consumer all the way up to the c-suite. nationalwould add the basketball association to that list as well.

in terms of the mass education that would require for there to be a significant consumer sentiment chiship. as relates to several of these industries with athletics, entertainment, or intellectual properties. what more point based upon my reporting. this is just the first step. is threefold the amount of legislation introduced in this congress alone as her legs to china, as relates to raining them in. department issuing sanctions against the chinese firm in cambodia. it had been posing as a manufacturing company but ultimately was trying to design a military base. the one belt, one road expansionary policies of china weather in africa or elsewhere around the world is now very

much onto sanctions and that the federal government is developing. tom: it is every hour with kevin cirilli. faries to kevin cirilli, we are pleased to tell you one of our great technologists will join us in a minute. juergen's the new map, we are living in a new world. you and i would never expect that they would rip something like we chat away. how does that change macro strategy? >> i think from a macro strategy perspective, geopolitics is now being a focus of macro strategy. vote, that isxit when the game changed.

we had the rise of populism. suddenly geopolitics matter. now we have this pushed back .gainst globalization this isn't just coming from the republicans, the democrats are on board as well. 20 years or so we did not need to worry about geopolitics, now we worry about that. lisa: this is coming at a time of tech dominance where the tech stocks have been the absolute leader. they are at the forefront of the increasing tension between the u.s. and china. apple shares premarket have given up almost all of their premarket gains on the heels of some of these headlines. does the potential escalation of u.s.-china tension threaten the big global tech stocks that have done the best? lee: it does to an extent. i don't believe anyone thinks that we will see a major trade war ahead of the election.

postelection it could get worse. for the next six or seven weeks it is probably likely to gain more rhetoric than anything else. stocksblem with the tech , as you mentioned, we have a long way. equity people might be able to justify. i look at them and i struggle with it. at the peak it was 82%. 64% of now. nasdaq close to all-time highs. we are in the middle of a pandemic. we have huge amounts of uncertainty, we have an election coming up. onto mastice more and deglobalization trend. these stocks go higher fueled by zero interest rates by the fed, extremely negative rates. that is why the stocks go up.

when you get to be sort of levels, the volatility will go up. that is what we have seen the last couple of weeks. we will see volatility increase. i think the next six or seven weeks ahead of the election, we will see much more volatile markets. uncertainty now has to play into it. to sell offily aggressively because the liquidity is still there. the smooth path up that we have been expecting the last few months. this will get more volatile. apologies to keep this one short. great to catch up. in the market right now, equity futures doing absolutely nothing. choppy and they have been over the last three weeks. tom: the key, just to go away from the story. what jim karen said is critical,

how will this be expressed in the real yield? -1.01 now. any breakdown would be a key determinant. jonathan: i will tell you at 1:00 eastern on bloomberg tv. i'm jonathan ferro with your equity markets settling down and settling in. get it out, just say it. what is wrong? tom: i want the nominal yield. jonathan: 10:00 eastern this evening, tom keene when everyone else has gone home on bloomberg. ♪ ,> with the first word news president trump is ridiculing fbi chief christopher wray. he told congress russia is trying to hurt joe biden's presidential chances through social media and influence operations. the president tweeted chris, you don't see any activity from china, even though it is a far

greater threat than russia, russia, russia. leading virus vaccine candidate are making their trials public. pfizer coming off increasing fears that the effort to develop a vaccine is becoming politicized. they plan to gauge their safety and effectiveness. job cuts on the way at hsbc. bloomberg has learned the british bank employing plans to cut most jobs in paris. most of those will be sent to asia. hsbc says it wants to cut more than a third of the 678 people at its french investment bank by early 2022. a round of informal trade talks with the european union were useful. meanwhile, european commission issident urszula the line -- convinced they brexit deal is possible.

that is in contrast to boris johnson's actions in recent days. he wants to tear up sections of the deal he reached less than a year ago. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by 2400 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

is --his jonathan: "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg

surveillance this is -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." a little bit of a snooze, we drift on the s&p 500 after a negative day yesterday. 1.1834.-dollar, 0.67 percent is your yield on the 10 year. the news in the last hour or so, tiktok facing a shutdown november 12. i don't think that surprises anyone debt it is after the election. you will not be able to download the app this coming monday. pending what happens with this potential deal. if you have the app i understand you will not get updates. that is if you are in the united states. this is heating up, isn't it? changing direction seemingly every day. but youate to do this were way out front on the

china-u.s. tensions. not months ago, quarters ago. maybe the advantage of being from england saying you americans are crazy. now -- kevin cirilli was brilliant again moments ago. we are thrilled david kirkpatrick could join us on short notice. looking particularly at we chat for many years for its ability to monitor and move forward. social messaging, as well as its sheer app utilization. what is the impact to americans if we chat goes away? david: the impact to americans is not huge. americans generally don't use we chat. chat inle that use we the united states are people who are trying to communicate with people in china for the most part. probably the biggest single group of people in the u.s. are

chinese students here in the united states. as well as chinese businesspeople traveling in the united states. in china, we chat is an daily, momentnot to moment tool in life. a combination of facebook, google, ebay, amazon all rolled into one. kind of do everything with the we chat. you could order your lunch, talk to your kid, and arrange to get a car. you could do anything. lisa: you are the author of the book "the facebook affect. the company is connecting the world. i am looking forward to some app that could do that. i'm wondering what it means for the world to have chinese media

companies that are taking over and connecting the world. what is the significance of that? larger sense it is a geopolitical threat. this is one of the real challenges. something we talk about on this program before. likelihood ofand regulation coming down on american tech companies that have a global presence. the reality is in any vacuum that we are creating, if we do start to suppress even for good reasons our own tech companies -- chinese companies will come into to fill the void. they are enormously capable. they do have the full backing of the chinese government, which gives them enormous resources, even beyond the more obvious financial ones that they have. this is combined with the fact that huawei has built the internet infrastructure for most of the planet.

mao hadading yesterday, a philosophy of surrounding the cities with villages. chinese technology, especially infrastructure technology has been on the same thing with the developing world. now they have basically won in the physical infrastructure. these apps which are more content apps are easily flowing across all of the infrastructure. is a normal china competent technologically. they have a clear global and hardfor soft power power. particularly soft power influence, which we lack because of our free market system. i'm not saying that has been a mistake. we are in a precarious situation when it comes to chinese influence at a global level. zuckerberg at facebook made that argument a couple months ago on capitol hill. you think that argument is

starting to resonate in d.c.? david: i think it is. i'm very suspicious whenever zuckerberg makes any argument these days. sense, i don't disagree with him on this rare occasion. it has particularly taken effect among conservative republicans like marco rubio and josh holly. i think you can't help look at anything right now through the inevitable lens of the presidential campaign. even if you look at the commerce department announcement this morning that they will ban we chat and tiktok. the first sentence is in keeping with president trump's great leadership and desired to do this and that. we never used to get government regulations issued that way. that has been coming more and more.

it worries me. tom: in the bluster of all this, the emotion -- business insider has a nice question. is this enforceable? david: yes, i think it is enforceable. by banningnforce it them in the app stores of google and apple. yes, you could use a lot of force internet activity not to happen in certain ways. will be ways around it. in the u.s., people could probably use vpns to use chinese apps. just like they could use them to use american apps in china. i don't think that would be my concern. my concern is more or less

chaos. thing in a wayd considering the youngest people in america, even some medium young people are so devoted to tiktok. to take away one of their favorite toys and favorite ways of spending time right before an election doesn't strike me as necessarily that strategically wise. jonathan: i am medium young. if they are young and i am medium young, i'm not sure what that makes you, tom. let's like about this. number 12 -- november 12. then they take the toys away after the election. let's say he doesn't have another four years. say president donald

trump has free rent to do some stuff. it is original, to say the least. jonathan: from new york and london, medium young, love that. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,

or a big one.

you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business.

jonathan: from new york and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. with the president of the atlanta fed, michael mckee has dropped by. michael: good morning to you and good morning to raphael bostic, president of the atlanta fed. thank you for being with us. i want to start by asking about the new framework. we know what it is. appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation above 2% for some time. what does that mean for you. how do you define moderately above and how long is some time? pres. bostic: thank you for having me on bloomberg. it is great to be here. i did not talk to you often

enough. in terms of your question, for me one of the challenges we have had historically is when unemployment, or when the employment level has gotten too low, there is been a concern about economists and policymakers that would consider -- that would trigger inflation that would not able to be controlled. the reaction has typically been we will try to stop that labor market from overheating, and then in turn that can put the damper on inflation. what we saw in the last 10 years is we can get employment to a very high level without seeing that inflation. we wanted to be clear in the longer run goals statement that we will wait to see for evidence of that overheating before we start to take action. that is the biggest message to come out of that statement. michael: what is the evidence you would look for? is there a level of inflation above 2% that is your ceiling?

, i ambostic: for me comfortable above 2%, and it is more the trajectory and the level. 2.3% ande at 2.2% or it looked like we would be stable for a while, that would be fine. for the last five or six years we have been at 1.6% and 1.7% and been at a stable level, and that would be the flipside. if we were at 2.2% and the next quarter at 2.4% and then 2.6, that trajectory would give me concern. i would -- certainly the level will be something to pay attention to, but for me the trajectory is much more important. michael: give me your levels from the forecast you made. where you think growth and inflation and unemployment will be in three years? pres. bostic: in three years hopefully we will have the pandemic passed us, we will have figured out what all of the structural changes that have gone on me, the economy will be

back on a path. our long-term estimate for our model is around 2% growth. inflation can go at above 2% as well. crisis wefore the were headed in that direction. i was optimistic about how things were going. in terms of unemployment, i think we can see levels 3.70 5% we saw% before. i am bullish three years out, but we have a lot of work to do now to make sure the amount of pain and damage that happened to this economy is minimized. staying on the local and immediate term is something we should all try to continue doing for a bit longer. michael: i am sure you know one of the criticisms on wall street after the meeting was you can talk about getting over 2%, but you cannot get to 2%. why do you think that is going to happen? pres. bostic: i've been talking

with my team on this. and thisre the crisis, is something i try to say in interviews and talk to my colleagues about this, many of the signals of inflation were at 2%, if not above 2%. i think we were much closer to our target precrisis than has been recognized. that said, we are not in that place now. i have confidence once we get back into stable growth and robust recovery, that we can get back to the precrisis level where all of the signs are positive. done a lot toe get inflation to a place where i can be comfortable with it and would suggest the economy is moving in a sustained way. your policy now inflationary in and of itself? pres. bostic: that is an interesting question.

what i would say right now is the pandemic is something we have never seen before. this is a historic event. if you look the inflation numbers, there's a lot of noise. month-to-month and quarter to quarter, the elements of the cpi are showing wide springs and much wider swings than you would ordinarily see. it is hard to know if that is the signal we are seeing. the same time, how labor markets have evolved has been so dramatic and the stresses that have happened to particular businesses and how the pandemic has hit certain sectors much differently than others makes it hard to tell exactly what is happening in terms of inflation. it is something we will continue to work on. i am hopeful that as we get further along in the recovery, a lot of the signals will become clearer. a lot of the noise that is happening in the extreme values will be reduced and eliminated so we can understand where the economy is standing. michael: i am wondering what more if anything you can do. your tool is interest rates.

you have interest rates at zero. you have tools to push down interest rates. is there anything more the fed can do to stimulate the economy or is it really over to congress? pres. bostic: i would say congress has a significant role. fiscal policy will be important because the types of things that can happen in fiscal policy are not the things we have authority to do. grants have been important. things like the paycheck protection program. those sort of things create much more stable breaches than the lending we can do. what i am doing at our bank is a couple of things. first, trying to monitor the economy and make sure we are talking to small businesses, to families come into banking institutions, so we understand where things are working well and where things are not working well and we can deliver that information to policymakers in washington. the second thing we are doing is we are trying to engage with communities across this country,

giving them advice on things around economic development, around sustaining small businesses in times of crisis that we have learned over years and decades of research and engagement in that space. while we do not have a lot of energy in terms of interest rates, there are lots of other ways we can try to sustain things and we are doing all of those things. one thing i would say is we are also engaging with banking institutions, encouraging them to deploy their capital and find ways to provide relief for businesses and families that are struggling with their cash flow as a result of the public health response to the crisis. michael: we are speaking with dr. raphael bostic, the president of the atlanta federal reserve bank. if you were to talk to a member of congress today, what would you say about the economy? earlier this month you saw definite signs of slowing. do you still see that? pres. bostic: we definitely see signs of slowing. beene, our team has

thinking about how you characterize the economy today, and what we are seeing is something akin to a less than symbol. with some parts of the economy, sectors are doing quite well and growing, and others are struggling or have struggled or are getting worse. one of the things that has been interesting challenge for all of us is how you take an aggregate number that is an average of those things and convert that into a discussion of the economy? what i would tell policymakers is there lots of sectors where there is still a lot of pain and disruption going on. there are a lot of families who have a significant amount of uncertainty, those things will wear on our ability to grow. i would encourage them to think about ways they might provide support to help those who are in more precarious positions not have to struggle and worry. evictions,alysis of

for example. we have an evictions monitor, and we've been working with georgia tech and folks in atlanta. eviction levels in atlanta are higher now than they were a year ago. the trend is going in the wrong direction. i've heard reports it is happening all over the place which would suggest this precariousness is present. to the extent that becomes a reality for a large number of people, the amount of pain we will have in the economy and the challenges we face to get to a robust recovery are going to be much greater. michael: i do not know if you use wechat or tiktok. i hope we do not see one tiktok. given that is the news of the day, let me ask you this. the trade tariff policy toward china, has that had a direct impact on your business? tariffs have the

impacted companies in a complex set of ways. some businesses in my district have direct and important business activities in china itself, and they are reporting significant difficulties. a lot of our agriculture sector exports to china and has relationships with them in that regard. it has been harder for them. --t adjustment is something i am trying to see how they are adjusting and what type of things they will do. it has taken a toll. that said, the relationship with china is complex and the trade issue has to be weighed against things like intellectual property and the protection of our comparative advantage. how this goes and how it plays out is important. this in have a stake in terms of having authority to do things, but it is something as i see things happening, i try to

make sure the policymakers in d.c. no and i try to -- the policymakers in d.c. know, and i try to explain to our contacts how this might look moving forward. michael: you've noted the pandemic has had a disproportionate effect on low income people and communities of color, and there is no argument about that. what can the fed do about that? pres. bostic: i get calls about this all the time. our bank has been an important source of information for communities across the district, and some of the things we are doing are working with local government officials, trying to give them advice on ways they might help their businesses. about howen talking you maintain business activities in the time of covid. how do you think about customer flows in and out of stores to engage with that? we have also tried to engage with philanthropy to tell them

about the natures of stresses and suggest there may be ways for them to have significant impacts in the communities they serve. we are going much more micro-in terms of trying to help those communities because there are so many different context. i would also say this is not just a lower income and minority community issue. you go to a lot of the more rural places in the district, they are struggling as well. ,hey have had challenges before and as we have seen in many instances, the cobit crisis has exacerbated -- the covid crisis has exacerbated a lot of the disparities we have seen and we are trying to work with rural areas to help them figure out solutions for the new world we live in. michael: joe biden has suggested the fed should act aggressively to combat racial inequality, even leaving open the possibility of adding a third mandate for the fed. there is also talk you should incorporate the black

unemployment rate in your flame work. dachshund your framework. what you think of those that -- into your framework. what you think of those ideas? pres. bostic: they are interesting ideas. you have to consider those things in a broader context. the black unemployment rate is important for how the economy is performing. we have a latino unemployment rate that is higher than the national average and has been for a long time. you can think about labor force participation for women. this is a multidimensional issue and we have to think hard about how do we capture those dimensions to figure out what is going on. i will tell you the policy coming out of the long run framework are important because we are committing to letting the economy grow more robustly than we might have otherwise, and that has an should have positive implications for the ability of minorities and women and lower income people to be fully attached to the economy. michael: one last question.

the fed has suggested it is looking into its communication strategy. you struck all of the language about the summary of economic projections from the new framework. i'm wondering if we will see a different kind of communication arising by the end of the year? pres. bostic: i do not know about that. what i will try to do is make sure i can see to communicate as clear as possible with my constituencies. we have done a good job. let me say one other thing on that last question, which is another thing we are trying to do is engage communities and constituencies. today we are having a conference on racial justice and finance where we are trying to bring in different voices and have them grapple more deeply with issues about race. we will continue to have those conversations moving forward, and we will try as much as possible, i will work to make sure the federal reserve is a place people look to for thoughtful solutions to issues around racial equity and

disparities we have seen historically. michael: raphael bostic, thank you for joining us. the president of the atlanta federal reserve joining us on bloomberg radio and television worldwide. thanks for coming on. jonathan: michael mckee, thank you very much. we appreciate it. i will continue that conversation and catch up with mohamed el-erian later on bloomberg tv. tom keene, he is in my time zone, in england, in quarantine, before he takes up his post as the president of queens college cambridge. hugely anticipated. this has been known for 18 months. mohamed el-erian will go back to cambridge and take over that important academic position within the united kingdom. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. our simulcast on what was going to be a leisurely friday. the answer is it is not leisurely.

the markets are turning red and green on the screen. one thing i would say, lisa ,bramowicz, more than anything is the news takes over, and it is news of the many stories of china and the united states. lisa: this has been something in the backdrop but now there is the increasing uncertainty between the u.s. and china over on theand wechat, and relationship going forward between these countries, the hardliners are digging in. brad setser has been following this. we can talk a lot about the politics, but we have to look at the numbers and the money. what the money is saying is the trade deficit between the u.s. and china is deepening. brad setser with the council foreign relations, senior fellow international affairs, and a long-standing background in international relations in the government. what you make of this tiktok news this morning? for one, the u.s.

has not been clear about the demands it was placing on tiptop. -- on tiktok. the deal with oracle suggested bytedance could retain majority control, which would be unusual. then china is also flexing its muscles trying to limit the export of various source code. , the u.s. seems to be signaling it wants a full divestiture or a shift in majority of control and china is resisting that and the company is caught in between. lisa: you've been doing a lot of great work on the flows to the u.s. and china. if you take a look at the legacy of the trump administration, has it created a more even playing field between the two countries? brad: no.

it pretty clearly has not addressed the broad set of concerns that many u.s. firms china, nor from the chinese point of view has it given them certainty around their relationship with the u.s. it is striking that after the phase one trade deal u.s. imports from china and china's exports to the u.s. have with all, and so even of the friction, all of the uncertainty, right now china is exporting about as much to the u.s. as it ever has. a quite striking outcome. one probably influenced by the changes in demand around the pandemic. i think it also illustrates how difficult it is to fully decouple. tom: this is one big game of

chicken, whether it is at berkeley or the art of strategy at princeton, or where you studied at oxford. is a lot more sophisticated than we perceive. what is the risk to america of this game of chicken? if you're thinking purely about bytedance and tiktok, it is that some teenagers may not be amused on their phone as much as they normally would be for a period of time. lisa: a travesty. brad: from the broader strategic chicken view, a game of and threats and bluster's is not the most efficient way to move both economies to a slightly less -- to a state where they are slightly less integrated with each other. the hard part has been defining what the slightly less integrated world looks like. perceive-- tom: do you

that the united states is prepared for the response of china to what is perceived by many as bluster? how will we respond to whatever tiktok? about wechat or brad: i think you have to be prepared to deal with the consequences of your action. if china says as a matter of policy we would rather shut tiktok down then have it for sale, tiktok will be forced to do so. one of the classic insights of strategy is you should not make a threat you are not willing to carry out. to the extent the u.s. assumes that china will easily accommodate what china perceives as irrational demand from the part of the u.s., the u.s. is

making a mistake. tom: does the election play into this? we have had a number of conversations that say maybe it does, maybe it does not. does the election play into this or is this a bipartisan and separate discussion with china? brad: there is always a balance. at the end of the day, there is thepartisan sense that economic relationship with china needs to evolve further. to change in various ways. whenever a decision is made that in the periodine before presidential election, it is impossible to say politics did not play some role. it is a reflection of an ongoing struggle on the part of the u.s. political system to translate a desire for a different economic

relationship with china into reality. lisa: we've been talking all morning about this bipartisan wish to even the playing field between the u.s. and china, the feeling that something has gotten out of whack. you served in the u.s. treasury department stunning the economic relationships internationally. what you think people should be looking to do to create a better environment that would be agreed upon on all sides, at least within the parties in the u.s.? i do think that the basic question about how open the u.s. should be to china when china is not going to be fully open to the u.s. is an important one. that is the implicit question being addressed in the bytedance/tiktok discussion, given that china's own internet

is pretty close to two consumer applications from outside, and then i think there is the broader question of how much china will change. if the answer is china is not going to change very much, the question becomes how much further, or how much you want to roll back our current level of integration with an unchanged chinese economy? the tariffs have played some role in that. striking thing is even with the tariffs, the trade imbalance with china has basically bounced back in the past couple of months. it is not fully back, but it has returned. probably the policies in place to date are not as efficient. the new factor, the important factor, is the direction of pressure looks to be changing. it looks like china's currency is under pressure, and a

stronger chinese currency in the past has been much more effective than tariffs at creating broad incentives to move production and supply chains around the world and have them less focused on china. tom: thank you so much. brad setser with the council on foreign relations. we've been featuring a stronger renminbi today. we will look for that opening sunday evening in new york in the early morning of beijing and hong kong. lisa abramowicz, a historically day. on the data, what you see? lisa: portable shares have bounced back from the lows after the news came out -- oracle shares have bounced back from the lows after the news came out. the market seem to be saying that this noise is more noise than signal. this is interesting because there's not a lot of visibility on this deal and yet it does create tension about what is the

template for u.s. chinese relationships to go forward. tom: into the weekend, one of the tensions is the story of the labonte and eastern mediterranean geopolitics. turkish lira, we ignored it today with the huge news flow. for global wall street, a massive weakening of the turkish lira over last 24 hours. to 7.500, thing to go and we have stormed through the new weakness, 7.57. i spoke to ben harvey in istanbul. he said this is a moving story into the central bank meeting next week, i believe thursday in ankara. we'll be following up on our istanbul news bureau. lisa: it has gone completely opposite and the rest of the emerging world. it shows turkey is in a world of its own. emerging-market currencies are hot. tom: no question about it,

turkey's idiosyncratic story. the bond market enough for jon ferro to walk out the door. i'm not sure he is on the open or the real deal. the speaker of the house with dave weston at 12:00 noon. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way

♪ go your own way your wireless. your rules. only xfinity mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. and switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need.

switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. ♪ jonathan: from new york and

london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. equity futures elevated nine points. positive .33%. the big issue, market jitters returning. >> markets should get more volatile. >> more volatile. >> volatility in the markets will continue. >> whether it is the crisis, the election, the trade wars, the impending recession. >> failure to renew fiscal stimulus. >> this is all about fiscal policy. is stillonomic program pretty good. >> be selective when you're looking. >> we are in a holding pattern. tovery little choice but move out of the risk sector. >> owning haven assets actually make sense. jonathan: joining us is kailey leinz. it is tech versus everything else.