>> i'm not going to say there is a bubble forming. i'm going to say that there is a potential for one to form. >> a lot of complacency. >> we've really moved into a new era. monetary policy the way we grew up or hit, it doesn't -- we grew up with it, it doesn't work anymore. >> we cannot live with the -- we arethis virus going to have to live with the impact of this virus perhaps longer than we thought. jonathan: good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. two things weighing on investors' minds, the division risk acrosse covid the continent in europe. wheren the united kingdom

you are, a lockdown. a judicial lockdown in washington as well. one of the tea leaves am looking at is strong in, really indicative of the correlated angst we are seeing right now -- strong yen, really into get of of the correlated angst we are seeing right now. jonathan: in europe, the ftse off by more than 3%. the dax off by 3.25%. europe also looking to washington. let me be clear about that. that has been the conversation throughout the morning here in london. what do the evans over the weekend me for policy and washington, d.c.? the past toward the fisc or agreement much trickier now -- toward fiscal agreement much trickier now. point, there was a huge worry on wall street about the period from november after the election went into the end of january. for market participants, they are probably a little more

worried about that this morning. tom: not just 40 days away from the election. i think really unspoken in all of this is eight days to the first presidential debate. that has radically changed in the interest as we go to it. jonathan: and many held hostage by the next move in washington. lisa: how much pressure is that going to be by policymakers that don't have control over fiscal policy on people who do have control over fiscal policy to do more? , and do it fast? it up like im -- to do more, and do it fast? i data clock a.m., we will hear from -- at 8:00 a.m., we will hear from michael mckee. toistine lagarde testifying german and french lawmakers. how much will she call on them to do more with fiscal policy?

at 3:00 p.m., the u.s. senate meeting. they will decide on a possible successor to ruth bader ginsburg in the spring court. how much oxygen does -- in the supreme court. how much oxygen does this take out of the room? a lot of analysts saying it doesn't look likely we will get , with how much more bifurcated republicans and democrats are now. jonathan: it has taken some oxygen out of this equity market . here's a snapshot of the risk aversion in the bond market. yields come in four points on the 10 year. on the 30 year, five or six basis points. a stronger dollar. euro-dollar down to $1.1782. the stronger yen the exception in g10 this morning. tom: what is interesting here are some of the idiosyncratic moves further. you know i have been watching

turkish lira. these are benchmarks at 7.40, 7.50. this morning, lera is plunging -- this morning, lira is plunging. these are some of the little things distorting into an s&p -53. jonathan:jonathan: let's get the conversation started on the market come on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv. we are joined by julian emanuel, btig chief equity and derivatives strategist. you came into this week already less constructive on this equity market. is there anything to be excited about on this monday morning? julian: it is a little dicey. you just described a litany of issues facing the market. when you look at the currency markets alone, the classic risk off behavior with strong dollar and even stronger yen, the one ray of sunshine is obviously, the last three days with regard

and theassing of rbg contest with how they are going to fill the supreme court seat ballaken the eye off the of the fact that stimulus in our view, in fed chair powell's view , is absolutely necessary to keep the economy moving. we have seen time and time again , whether it was the debt or other impasses, a weak equity market tends to galvanize action. tom: john templeton, the giant of value and courage, sir john to bolton -- sir john templeton, shares are on sale. why is that? the only thing we can agree on this morning's shares are on sale. isn't this an opportunity? julian: here's the issue. if you go back to march 23, up

on in the nasdaq to the high september 2, 63% in the s&p 500 in virtually a straight line. again, unemployment is still extremely elevated. valuations particularly in technology are very elevated. we have this economic uncertainty. if you think about it in the context of how quickly that move occurred, you would argue without any of these issues that the market was due correction. lisa: have we move past the narrative of lower yield means higher stock prices? julian: absolutely. , and very much priced in the conversations we are having with our clients, it points to the uncertainty. you talked about it on the intro , of whether bond yields are

sustainable at this low a level, given the amount of deficit financing the u.s. in particular is going to have to do in coming years. if anything, people are thinking that support is long-term less likely to buoy equity prices. jonathan: talk to us about real yields. is that relationship breaking down, too? julian: that has been the conundrum of recent months, and obviously the fed's desire to suppress nominal yields has been a boon for the real yields story , but in fact we are starting to see some signs of inflation perking up, so it really is the question, given everything, how much longer you can actually have real yields stay at this extreme low level. and again, particularly for high

multiple technology stocks, where there is a huge amount of speculation in our view still left over from the froth of august. it is difficult to maintain that. jonathan: let's stink about this. how money people have come on programs like this in the last three weeks with the nasdaq facing some trouble, talking up cyclical exposure and talking about europe? three months of happy talk about the european economy relative to the united states, and it is over this monday morning, with equities down by more than 3% and the prospect of more restrictions of the next 24 hours. help frame that story for us this morning. europe versus the united states, given what is happening. more expected to happen throughout the week. julian: from a long-term perspective, it is logical to expect, particularly given the political goings-on in the u.s., particularly given the valuation disparities and the overvaluation at the moment for dienology, in a portfolio

fares if occasion cents, it makes -- in a portfolio diversification cents, it makes sense to go for europe. the virus has always been looking in the background, and now that the virus seems to be rearing its head unfortunately in a second wave throughout europe, that edge is diminishing. tom: i look at the opportunity and i want to go back to somebody with cash burning in their pocket this morning. action -- at cree spx correction, almost there. place tothe best allocate capital right now, even if you don't agree with julian emanuel? julian: what we see in the u.s. now is the health care sector, which is likely to be under a bit more pressure given the fact that you are about to adjudicate the affordable care act in a supreme court that we don't really know what it is going to days after couple

the election, but nevertheless the health care sector, which tends to do well during times of geopolitical uncertainty, is trading at a 5.5 multiple discount to the s&p 500 versus an historic premium of 1.5 times. that has factored in in our view literally all of the negative politics that could happen and perhaps even more. jonathan: julian, great to catch up as always. julian emanuel there of btig. we are down by 1.63%. the risk we are experiencing right now risks that were always on horizon that have just been brought forward pretty quickly in the last couple of days. that is for europe and the united states as well. on wall street, there has been this worry that the day after the election, worries about whether we would even have a result, worries about policy in a lame-duck session, and i've got to say, those got a whole lot more fuel over the weekend. tom: and a different nuance as

well. this idea of a lame-duck session is really important. the calculus of that is really unknowable, depending on who wins various senate, various house, and the presidency as well. it is not only a lame-duck session, but the 14 flavors we could see. jonathan: this equity market also breaking down big time on the european side of things. through is going to go some tighter restrictions in the next 24 hours. we will have an address from the prime minister and next 24 hours. there will be new restrictions on parts of this economy that have only just gotten started again. the messaging here is going to be fascinating. this is a government that we are telling people to get back to work, and they have to tell some people not to go. this is a government that was telling people to go out to drink and eat, and they may have to curb that as well. how do they get that message

across without contradicting themselves in the next 24 hours? ? that could be the groundwork for other governments to follow. down 1.6 percent. much more coming up from washington, d.c. with kevin cirilli. and a conversation you don't want to miss with the dallas fed president. live on bloomberg tv and radio with bloomberg's michael mckee, 50 minutes away. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a political fight brewing on capitol hill following the death of supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg. president trump plans to nominate a replacement this week and says he will probably choose a woman. democratic leaders say the post should remain vacant until after the presidential election. justice ginsburg died friday. she was 87. jerome powell and stephen mnuchin will be grilled by

lawmakers tuesday on the need for more stimulus to shore up the u.s. economy's recovery from the coronavirus slump. the focus of the house financial services committee hearing will likely be fiscal policy. time is running short for congress to agree on another round of stimulus measures before it shuts down ahead of november's election. a woman suspected of sending an envelope to the white house containing the poison ricin was arrested over the weekend. she was taken into custody at the canadian border while trying to enter into the united states. officials say her arrest comes nearly a year after she was deported from the u.s. for engaging in criminal activity. the letter was intercepted last week before it reached the white house. in california, the bobcat wildfire that has already scorched nearly 100,000 acres is expected to get even bigger. fire officials say low humidity and wind gusts are likely to spread the flames. the fire has doubled in size over the past week and is on

track to becoming one of the biggest wildfires in los angeles county history. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: we will uphold equal justice under the law. i will be putting forth a

nominee next week. it will be a woman. jonathan: the new battlefront down in washington, d.c. from new york and london, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action two hours, 12 minutes out from the market open. equity futures down 51. risk aversion really intuitive, very clear. stronger dollar. exception to the rule, dollar-yen. crude down 2%. in the bond market, curve flatter. yields lower in the long end on the tenure by three basis points, on the 30 year by a little more. the clear underperformance coming through from europe, with the major benchmarks down a little more than 3%. i just want to throw something out there because i think it is pretty important. lung which matters. how i government communicates theyits people, the words

choose to use matters. i do not like the word lockdown when it is nothing like the lockdown we experienced through spring. the measures expected to be announced in the next when he for hours in the united kingdom may well be called lockdown measures. they are restrictions, not like what we experienced in spring. schools are set to still be open. people will still be encouraged to go back to work. tom: very interesting and very different from what we see in other cities, including melbourne, australia. the two-year yield, i am watching it carefully. will be an important barometer. cirilli on then change in washington. he is our chief washington correspondent. i want to look to pennsylvania. all of my reading over the weekend is it is the focus of the president of the united states. this nation is something on the order of 22% catholic, and yet in pennsylvania, we have a substantial pittsburgh catholic percentage, way above 40%, and even the state blended in is 50%

up from the national level, 33%. can the selection of a university of notre dame law professor make pennsylvania go for trump? kevin: for conservative catholics, it would definitely in terms oft base pushing the issue of religion front and center. president trump was able to hold together his christian coalition from 2016, remarkably because of some of the judges that he has appointed to the supreme court. look at justice kavanaugh, for example. beyond that, joe biden trying to tap into the kennedy catholics of yesteryear and trying to bring them back into the party. tom: this is fascinating, kevin. got to presidents -- we've got

two presidents in pennsylvania. how do you expect that to affect that vote if it is direct, or the daughter of -- if it is barrett, or the daughter of cuban exiles, like goa -- exiles, lagoa? kevin: trump has suggested this is the perfect opportunity for barrett. she was a clerk for scalia. in terms of the fight that this is going to create in the run-up to the election, just over the weekend, elizabeth warren was saying she is vowing to fight ofs tooth and nail in terms the nomination process. but either way, you are rightfully focusing on pennsylvania. but look at the development's of florida over the last four days. you've got the trump campaign

saying they are adjusting expectations, that they have a pass to the white house if they don't win florida. for that to happen, should president trump not win florida in just a couple of weeks, he would have to really be turning the history books on their heads in order to pick up a state like minnesota. he wouldn't be able to lose like arizona, and he would have to win pennsylvania. lisa: the senate is going to meet at 3:00 p.m. they are going to be talking about lagoa, about amy barrett. are they going to be talking about the economy at all? kevin: no, to be blunt. the supreme court has sucked out all of the oxygen in the room. for at least the next couple of days, especially if we get that name that the president .nnounces within this week fiscal stimulus talks aren't there. however, i would note that speaker pelosi over the weekend foreshadowing some of the tactics that democrats have at their disposal, whether it be

sucking up air on the house floor, there's a variety of paths. there's a lot of confusion here in washington, d.c. as we ended -- as we head into the final sprint with a week or so until the first presidential debate, and a hole on the supreme court bench. lisa: there's a shift in markets across the board. the shift is coming from the virus worsening. we might see some sort of resurgence in the u.s.. that is what the fda commissioner said. we are certainly seeing it in europe. people are depending on their jobless benefits, and yet people are not going to be talking about the economy on the senate floor. which party looks worse as a result of this? kevin: i think washington looks terrible. i think just given the dynamic of the beltway in terms of polar asian, it is tough to -- of polarization, it is tough to a side. but either way, should the virus continued to intensify as the

data is starting to suggest it would, that would put more pressure on the makers to get to a deal -- on lawmakers to get to a deal. jonathan: kevin, great to catch up. thank you. tom, it is not difficult to spot the contradictions from both parties on how they are dealing with this situation and the situation in 2016. it was a contradiction race over the weekend for both republicans and democrats. tom: absolutely. i'm with kevin, the oxygen has been sucked out of the room. i don't have words for how this has been changing things, and we have that for every time in recent history. this has become a huge issue that all of a sudden dominates all. what i find important is if you make the assumption that oxygen has been sucked out of the room, guess what? -- expect unexpired the unexpected. what is that unexpected going to be? downhan: equity futures 57, off by 1.7% on the s&p 500.

the underperformance in europe is very much a european story. what is happening with the discussion on economics? there isn't one. that's the problem. for a long time through the summer, continually people said it was a matter of when, not if. now it really is a matter of if. jonathan: you never say i nailed it. you only say lisa nailed it. lisa: what's the implication there, tom? are you going to take that? jonathan: tom and i agree to like each other from 7:00 to 9:00 eastern. then we stop pretending. tom: one day i want to nail it. [laughter] lisa: congratulations on the win by the way, tom. jonathan: that will get us to thursday. it's going to be a great week. [laughter] -1.8%.futures down 59, tk nailing it.

[laughter] this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and tv. ♪

jonathan: from new york and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equities worldwide breaking down, led by europe as the continent could face new restrictions, particularly in the u.k.. almostde, futures down 60. the story in the bond market clear for all to see. yields lower by three basis points on tens. that is a flatter curve this morning. the story of fx right now, stronger dollar more broadly, but the japanese yen starting to make a move. dollar-yen inching lower and lower again. tom: the reason that jon, lisette and i look at foreign-exchange is it is the deepest market -- jon, lisa and

i look at foreign-exchange is it is the deepest market. oda -- banque lombard odier's head of fx strategy joins us now. silliest -- the silliest -- lios, explained to our audience what yen and yen strength signals. >> well, i think what we have seen in this broad-based rally it has the dollar, actually lagged, and i think now it is playing catch-up. if you look at what has happened in previous dollar down cycles, what you find is that initially, , buten is not the currency

appreciation comes at a more must -- at a more mature stage. tom: well said, but what is the level on dollar-yen that signals that new level? possible. it is our forecast is that we approach .00 i think that is where we historically start making some noises because they are concerned about the pass-through impact to an already extremely subdued inflation outlook. we are also dependent on the global backdrop.

we could easily see dollar-yen to 95. jon: noise is not the same as policy, so let's talk about it. we've heard the noise. talk to me about policy, what the followthrough looks like, either from the ecb or the boj ? vasileios: the reality of the matter is that the room for policy maneuver is very limited. one thing about the euro that we need to take into account, the ecb watches are definitely the trade with europe. if you look at the broad trade-weighted euro, you will actually see it has been rising for the past two or three years. the reason for that is the strength of the euro versus em, or more likely em weakness, which is not really something the ecb can do. but on a more ecb centric basis, the issue for me is that if the

ecb starts making noise is, as you said, they have to be sure have aey can actually credible policy response. in this case, i am not entirely sure. i think it is extremely hard. the room for policy maneuver is fairly limited. i expect that on a idiosyncratic basis from governing council members, we will hear some verbal noises and intervention, but i think we are not going to see any, for example, rate cuts by the ecb. jonathan: what i am trying to think about, if we go through some choppy waters, it is an early day of this kind of price action. restrictions over in europe. what is the pressure valve in g10? what is the currency that everything rallies against, and there is not much pushback? traditionally it would be the u.s. dollar. what is it now? vasileios: for the time being,

it remains the dollar. it is just that the pace of dollar depreciation or the pace of other currency appreciation toinst the dollar is likely be slower than it was before. largely because the move have been very abrupt. there has been a lot of petitioning against dollar short positioning. i think if you want to talk about the pressure valve in the case of the economies managing to recover, it definitely remains the dollar. but i think from now on, it is going to be more of a two-way price action as opposed to a one-way street. lisa: let's build on that, this idea that if the dollar still is the haven, then have cries for the divided ration going forward -- for the devaluation going forward been overstated?

vasileios: that is a fantastic comment. i think we need to separate the cyclical from the structural here. also do have some sympathy about the structure argument for the reduction in dollar dominance on a multiyear basis. i don't think we necessarily need to explain the dollar's decline over the past five or six months, and certainly fed depreciation from here. we are talking about global currency returns, asset managers that movies in two different currencies on a very slow basis. this is not really what has been happening in the fx market. the dollar was overvalued. included numerous risk premia, and no i think it normalized and price out of the market. on top of that, you have the fed that pretty much has told them

they are going to be in zero rates for at least the next three years. lisa: let's push that towards the election. almost every analyst says they expect more volatility. we are certainly seeing that today with the political turmoil in washington deepening. does that mean the dollar will likely strengthen rather than we can, even though the turmoil is based in the u.s.? vasileios: i think in the run-up to the elections, a lot will depend on the opinion polls. the build uptime, in short positioning is quite extreme. i think i would expect to see a significant pickup in volatility. in the aftermath of the election, that will depend on the outcome. if we get a democratic sweep, we in going to get the pricing of an unwind of the corporate tax cuts we have seen from the trump administration, and potentially unwinding of some of the tariffs that have been imposed on china. i think this will be good for

currencies that depend on positive global trade. i think it is going to be good for the euro and bad for the dollar. tom: tell me about the dollar dynamics in the reality of such a low nominal yield, inflation breakevens rising, and a real yield that is hugely negative. what does that do in your world? vasileios: it is definitely putting immense pressure not only on the u.s. real yield and nominal yield, but also on the u.s. versus the rest of the world yields differential. on that account, if we try to model historically, although i do take the point there might have been some structural in the relationship between yield and the dollar, what has happened that is interesting, the dollar has collapsed 10% over the last 12 months, but the differential has also moved further way. 14%.e talking about

to the extent that we don't see the world going into another swan,ic or another black i think that correction of the dollar and evaluation of the misalignment is going to continue. tom: what is the erdogan tipping point? we've just gone out to new weakness, 7.61 on turkish lira. i just don't buy the idea of idiosyncratic and discreet. when does this become important, this profound weakening of erdogan's lira? vasileios: it has already started to become a tipping point. you can see it on several fronts. for example, we have had escalation between turkey and greece over the summer that seems to be panning out a bit, although a lot of questions remain, but it is doubtful that we have now the economic reality

biting into politics. i think we have started rea ching that tipping point that these things will have to be taken into account in a number of political levels. that being said, the story this year remains one which is extremely difficult. on one hand, it is very difficult because of the negative correlation, but if you look at central bank reserves, they are simply not there to prevent significant depreciation of the lira, which is going to have tremendous ramifications to the banking system and the real economy. jonathan: great to catch up. send our best to the team. vasileios cannot kiss their -- vasileios keo knock us -- there.os gkionakis the biggest story may be over in europe, where the equity market the move.g by twice

we have about 3% lower across most of the major benchmarks across the continent. you are weakness, dollar strength. euro-dollar, $1.17. tom keene, 40 minutes into the program, we have not talked once about tiktok. maybe that is a good thing. tom: we are tiktok free today. we had a wonderful chat with wolffwolf -- with michael on tiktok. i have not done the english and adjusted chart, but basically trading back to where it was in the 1990's, hsbc, what do you perceive as their future? jonathan: that is 4% of the ftse 100, and that stock is down by 6%. their future if questioned, and the future in china specifically being questioned. that is the story this monday, and one bestie in the stock --

and one we see in the stock as well, getting beat up a little bit. from new york and london, was tom keene nailing it every single day, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a political fight is burrowing on capitol hill following the death of supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg. president trump plans to nominate a replacement this week and says he will probably choose a woman. democratic leaders say the post should remain vacant until after the presidential election. ginsberg died friday. she was 87. health officials say the u.k. is on track for 50,000 new coronavirus cases by mid-october.

although the health secretary says the government wants to avoid a second national lockdown, the countries health secretary also said today that johnson has fully recovered for the virus, which put him in intensive care in april. 87,000dded another coronavirus cases to its tally today. that puts the total to nearly 5.5 million. india has the world's second-largest covid-19 outbreak behind the united states. the country says three vaccines are in different stages of clinical trials. a slow-moving tropical storm bring- storm will torrential rain to texas and louisiana. it could dump up to 20 inches of rain over the next few days. it is not expected to strengthen into a hurricane. this is the 23rd storm for 2020 so far, the second-most active season in record, going back to

1851. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

, thethink that all of us ,nstitutions at which we work

we want to leave it in as good shape as we found it. jonathan: the late supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg speaking to david rubenstein back in 2019, as the political fight in washington continues to intensify over her replacement. ball forcome off the the next fiscal effort in d.c. equities breaking down. lots of things going on, including a potential for more restrictions in the u.k. and across europe. dollarer euro, stronger for much of g10. in the bond market, yields in on tens 0.66%, still right in the middle of the range over the last six months, but a real bid into the bond market. tom: more market checks through the morning. i would say the tape is a little better than where it was 90 minutes ago. what we are going to do, and

what we've done for years on "bloomberg surveillance," obviously, there's politics. the impact on our political economy. but there's also the people involved. we spoke to our david westin an hour ago about his clerking for lewis powell come on the fabric of the supreme court. we speak now with lisa fr elinhuysen. the lax field to clerk for one ruth bader ginsburg. she joins us now this morning. about theo much talk notoriety of it, the are bg thing and all of that -- the rbg thing and all of that. i want you to take us back to the grind of the day, of clerking at the court. what was clerking for ginsberg

like? : first of all, it was my great good fortune to be able to clerk with her. she had been a hero of mine for many years, having worked at the aclu before going to stanford. chambers was a serious place. everybody worked extremely hard. lived for justice. she lived for the law. she ran terrific chambers. the summary of this in "the new york times" really captured it, the series of steps which culminated with the virginia military institute case. you were with her then. what's she aware when vmi occurred how momentous it would

be? lisa f: of course. having been established gender equality before the law was acutely aware of the importance of that case. two cases came up that term, both the city dow and vmi came up at the sink -- the citadel and vmi came up at the same time. the vmi case was the better case for the court to take, and it was very important to her. she was honored to be able to draft the opinion, to offer the opinion for the court. she cared tremendously about everybody's views on that court, and holding the big majority that she did in that case, i 7-1 case.

justice thomas was recused because his son attended vmi, and the lone dissenter was justice scalia, her friend. but it was an important case. she thought a great deal about it, and articulated with regards to justice o'connor's case before that, the standard that states had to meet when excluding women. the exceedingly persuasive justification standard, which is quite a high hurdle. tom: what would you expect from chief justice roberts as he tackles the future court? what can chief justice roberts learn from your tenure there, the idea of scalia and ginsburg as close friends? can that goodwill still maintain on the roberts court? lisa f: i think so. i think the court is an extremely cordial place.

there's a number of things they do to maintain that collegiality. they shake hands before each oral argument with each other. they are good-natured and friendly. that is not to say that they don't disagree quite vehemently with each other. but i do think that, with respect to the spirit of the court, it is a very cordial place. it was sad to see that moderate group leave the court. justice kennedy, justice o'connor, justice souter. the court becomes a bit more like the country, a bit more polarized. but i do think that the justices care about the law, about the interpretation of the court. there is tremendous respect for each other on the court. i do think there are things to

learn from her tremendous friendship with justice scalia. lisa a: for people not familiar with the supreme court, can you give us a sense of the proportion of cases that actually do come to a partyline vote or a very heavily split vote? can you give us a sense of how in the vastthere is majority of cases? lisa f: the majority of cases are decided on unanimous ground. it differs year to year, but it is really just the vague, more political cases that tend to come down in a divided court. , there's a lot of back-and-forth during the drafting of those opinions and the dissents, and those cases tend to come at the very end of the court's term at the end of june. but the vast majority of cases are unanimous decisions because the law is relatively clear. jonathan:jonathan: great to

catch up with you this morning. thanks for your time. i know it's been an upsetting weekend, so thank you for joining us. looking at the price action this monday morning, getting you up to speed on what is happening in markets worldwide, equities bring down in europe, down around 3% on a range of benchmarks on the continent. here's the story stateside. equity futures down almost 50, off by 1.5%. dollar stronger. all of the above. policy andut fiscal what is happening on the covid side of things over in europe. worse twos showing hours ago, and a little bit better now. up if you bigx figures, he reset to caution is what we've seen this morning. thereally in trouble with

media punditry on this. first of all, folks, you look at two standard deviations, but i can't do that because i haven't nailed it this morning. jonathan: you've nailed it twice already. coming up, a conversation you don't want to miss. robert kaplan. he'll nail it, next on bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,

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complete collections of iconic tv shows, and more. yup, the best really did get better. magnificent. xfinity x1 just got even better, with peacock premium included at no additional cost. no strings attached. >> i'm not going to say there is a bubble forming. i'm going to say there is potential for one to form. >> i think there is a lot of risk in the bond market right now for investors, a lot of complacency. >> we've really moved into a new era. monetary policy the way we grew up with it doesn't work anymore. >> we are going to have to live with the impact of this virus perhaps for longer than we thought in may. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television.