>> i'm not going to say there's a bubble forming. i'm going to say there's a potential for one to form. >> we could be sowing the seeds of another bubble now. >> we have really moved into a new era. monetary policy the way we grew up with it, it doesn't really work anymore. >> monetary policy will do its part. it is not the primary driver of this recovery. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we welcome all of you to a fractious new york, a very fractious washington, and

history in the united kingdom as they extend the pandemic watch out to march of 2021. jon ferro, there's no other headline for me this morning. all of us dealing with this pandemic, and boris johnson sets us a new timeline. jonathan:jonathan: new restrictions on the u.k. economy being announced today. we will hear from the prime minister addressing the nation at 8:00 p.m. local time. those restrictions could last a solid six months. let's get straight to the price action to give people a feel of how things have turned around in the last 30 minutes or so. equity futures were positive, now slightly negative. in the fx market, the pound was positive. it is now slightly negative. in the bond market, yields were up by almost a basis point. 0.67%.y are unchanged at it is a subtle shift, but a

reminder of the difficult moment we have ahead of us as we go deeper into the end of the year. tom: so much going on here. we welcome all of you on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio across america as you greet the tuesday morning. what i was thinking of, and i know you and i have been focused on this with all of bloomberg in new york, can you imagine mayor de blasio and governor cuomo having to deal with march of 2021? lisa: they may just have to do that because the former head of the new york health commission said that new york will probably face some of the similar things london is facing right now, which is a resurgence in cases as people hole away inside. i think the reason we are talking so much about fiscal support is we don't know the path of the iris. it -- of the virus. the question is, all of those restaurants, how are they going to survive? what is going to happen if people are not employed there, and how much will the economic

momentum to hear rate? -- momentum deteriorate? tom: this is the debate. there has been true income substitution. there will be a bigger push to extend it in the united kingdom, that's for sure. let's be clear, the united states got a grip on a covid situation that was not looking pretty whatsoever. in europe, it has turned the other way. euro is opening anymore trade efficient way, much more quickly, and perhaps will have less difficult he. as far as the market is concerned. as far as the economy is concerned, we've got to think about something with real depth and have some valuable conversations. how does an economy respond when it faces the kind of shock it got? back in march how does an economy respond?

that is the conversation we've got to start happening in europe in the weeks to come. tom: we will have that conversation tomorrow with the vice chair of the federal reserve, richard erica -- richard clarida. really looking forward to speaking about the inflation vector. right now we come to grips with our fears as we witnessed yesterday until a huge bounce. james athey's with aberdeen standard, looking at long-term investment. how do you manage fear? what do you do win the fear is so evident? james: good morning, tom. we would like not to be responding to any of these short-term gyrations. we would like to be positioned in such a way that we can write out some of these short-term views, take medium-term and ensure that as best we can, the profile is robust.

what happened yesterday was fairly good for the portfolio, say where running good -- so we are running in good positions. but we have had conversations about being risk facing in this .nvironment or fundamentals, but what we see has increasingly been a market which has ignored all incoming bad news information and embraced all incoming good news information. when that happens, very difficult to pointed out. whenever one is on one side of the boat, it doesn't take much to trigger much of a wave to tip the boat over and everybody falls in. so we have been defensive, and that yesterday was the right place to be. jonathan: what does defensive look like in 2020? james: good question. it is the world of one trade. one of the banks has been

culling at the world of one trade for a while. off funding and diversification have been very difficult. i think it's interesting, the two asset i mainly look at, sovereign bonds, and the fx didn't sovereign bonds really move yesterday. there was a lot going on in fx. that has been a trend recently, --re investors had seen von had seen bond volatility at zero and said, where else can i go? i think dollar, and swiss franc are good places to put budget to off where you can have periods. for us, it is, and it is being defensive. risky, short, idiosyncratically and/or the flight to

quality currencies. lisa: does that mean you are betting on duration tom: lisa: lisa: expressly, no expressly,ames --james: no. i think it is very difficult. isbability tree of outcomes tough because so much is dependent on what will be dictated something as unpredictable as the virus. it is something we just don't understand well enough to have a high conviction call. . i could see us in deflation's elite -- in deflation easily. i want to position for what they are doing, not what they are trying to achieve. low ine keeping yields

my opinion. i'm not too worried about inflation near-term. i think it is definitely something. tom: we welcome all of you on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. it is a most eventful tuesday. huge news flow, particularly out of the united kingdom. james athey with us from aberdeen standard. his status -- if that is the case, what is the value or ever of being in cash -- or error of being in cash? james: go back to the start of this year and i would have said there's very little error potential. cash was a very attractive part of your portfolio because use also many risks and so little chance at the one, true de-risk which you wouldn't want to be invested in cash for, and that is a lot of inflation. today it is kind of by mode or distribution.

cash is kind of good for one of those and not so good for the other. again, diversification is key, even if that isn't giving you as much. there is still value and diversification. i think cash is part of that. but i think precious metals are part of that today. jonathan: james, i am going to think out loud. forgive me for doing this. real yields for many people have been incredibly supportive of risk assets worldwide, but driven by inflation expectations building up and rates effectively being anchored by the federal reserve. if we reprice inflation lower and real yields actually start to go the other way for that reason, i am just trying to get my head around this, what that actually means going forward for risk assets, with the inflation rate or expected inflation coming in. james:james: unfortunately it is

still one big trade, but essentially we have seen breakevens from the march lows, which is correlated almost perfectly with risk asset .ecovery in 10 year, that meant the real yields had to follow fairly dramatically to get that increased breakeven inflation. -- thatalso core lord is also correlated with the match, so if that gets unwound, what is that mean for risk assets? i don't know if that is the tail or the dog in that scenario. risk assets are up in my opinion, largely because central bank has driven them here, not because there is some rational repricing in the growth inflation outcomes. i think breakevens are correlated with risk assets. therefore, if there is some shock which either forces equity prices, risk asset prices lower, or pushes real yields higher, i think pretty much everybody is

in it. jonathan: james, great to catch up as always. great to hear from you. james athey of aberdeen standard investment. it sounds a little bit complex, maybe a little intricate, but were thinking about, inflation expectations come in, real yields become less negative. lisa: i think it is a really smart point. if you want to make it more simplistic, at what point did -- credit spreads, the thing that robert kaplan of the dallas fed watches, did whiten out and you saw the biggest withdrawal from the .iggest high-yield bond etf it is no longer a good enough excuse on the face to go into risk assets. jonathan: i just loved what james athey had to say there about central banks. i am position for what they are

doing, not for what they are trying to achieve. tom: we will have to see. we have play -- we have clarida tomorrow. hugely important conversation. jonathan: on the s&p 500, up just a little bit. --ing up, isaac will pinsky coming up, isaac boltansky of compass point. ritika: britain is taking major steps to stem the spread of the coronavirus. boris johnson new restrictions today, asking people to work from home if possible. he also ordered pubs and restaurants to close early. new measures are likely to last six months. there will be tougher fines for people don't comply. senate republicans are moving quickly on their strategy to

fill whoever president trump taps to fill the vacancy on the supreme court. republican senator john zunes has gop leaders will likely decide today on their confirmation vote. they are hoping to get it done before election day. turkey is accusing the european union of rewarding the aggressor after slapping sanctions on three transport companies, including a turkish firm, for violating the u.n. arms embargo on libya. center has denied any action was hostile. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.

this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: i would much rather have a vote before the election because there's a lot of work to be done, and it much rather have it. we have plenty of time to do it.

there's really a lot of time. so let's say i make the announcement on saturday. there's a great deal of time before the election. that will be up to mitch in the senate. jonathan: it is the number one topic such an -- topic sucking the oxygen out of the room and washington, d.c. it is what they are not talking about that matters, and that is fiscal policy. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a small, mild bounce back from yesterday's price action. we bounce back just a little bit , then roll over again. we are down 0.1 percent on s&p 500 futures. the prime minister and the u.k. not helping the mood music this morning. euro-dollar down to $1.1737. pound sterling absolutely all over the place this morning. $1.27 handle.

. tom:tom: the three month libor, a benchmark foundational statistic, making a record low this morning is not to be ignored. futures negative five. right now in washington, isaac bolt and ski -- isaac boltansky is a wonderful policy wat cher. thank you so much for joining us. is any to pop -- is any policy discussion dead? isaac: on the fiscal side, for right now, the simple answer is yes. lawmakers like to say that they can walk and chew gum at the same time, but in my experience, that has not been the case. a supreme court develop meant is going to overtake the capitol, which means the focus on the fiscal package which was already waning is effectively dead at the moment.

can people even begin to trade this given the binary potential outcomes? isaac: i find it interesting that there is still a subset among my clients that believe there is this possibility for a grand bargain at the end of the month that covers the funding deadline, as well as some of the fiscal stimulus. the reality is we have been conditioned over the past two years to expect washington overtime to eventually find its way to avoiding these fiscal cliffs. that assumption was proven wrong with these phase for negotiations, which i think is a near-term concern for markets, but i think is also going eigh on d longer-term confidence of policymakers. lisa: people have gotten conditioned to a lot of noise, and for it to all to come

together, but from your discussions with policymakers, paired with discussions of people in the market, is there a disconnect? are people too optimistic about that need ending this time? isaac: the simple answer is yes. there is still too much optimism regarding a fiscal package by the end of the month. my ilk and the policy world believe washington could come together because the civil reality is we need -- the simple reality is we need more fiscal support. the chairman of the federal reserve will testify before congress three times this week, and he is going to suggest as much. i think we would also make the point that the c.a.r.e.s. act passed in march actually worked. tom: right now it this moment, the prime minister of the united let's go. saying, we are going to reset. to me, the headline here as he is resetting for march of 2021, is anyone in your washington looking out to march of 2021?

isaac: not even close. twore focused on the next months. this is part of the system failure we have seen in washington in recent years. there is no long-term. by the clearly evidenced lack of focus on a fiscal package that would help us emerge from this crisis. tom: you were weaned in ohio, a battleground state. is any of this cluelessness come to show up at the ballot box? does this fold into the political calculus of mail-in ballts in november 3 ots? isaac: the reality for many voters is that other issues are going to animate them. that is why i believe court headlines over the last you days can be played for both bases in different ways.

that will be what the big focus is. is point i want to make here if the economy continues to show signs of weakness and certain core doors, that is clearly negative for the president , atuse he is still viewed least in terms of the polling, on stronger in economic matters. weakness does accrue in certain back on -- and battleground states to the benefit of the biden campaign. there hasn't been much jonathan: . much -- --sn't been jonathan: there hasn't been much stability. clients andof my contacts have september 29 circled on their calendar, the first presidential debate. i think they will get their first real feel of this campaign

that night because up until that point, it has really just tested soundbites to define this campaign, and outwitting each other from different states. so to see them in the same forum is going to be meaningful for a lot of voters, especially those who remember the things. jonathan: isaac boltansky, compass research, fantastic to catch up with you. that debate is one week away. tom: it is going to get on the radar real quick. my guess is the sunday talk shows will pick it up and run with it. it is going to be something. overnight, the zeitgeist on mr. biden is a he has been very quiet would have to the democratic party uproar over the supreme court nomination to come. jonathan: he won't be able to hide from it next week.

on the election, your history with a going back far longer than mine, of course, for obvious reasons. [laughter] romneyrst debate, where actually had the upper hand, it just goes to show that you can't go off the first debate. things can change quick. tom: they can, but all the rules are broken. what we saw with nixon and kennedy years ago, i had to take a nap in the afternoon so i could stay up for the debate. lisa: i'm watching two men yell at each other from different countries. jonathan: are you? tom: there's no debate about that. jonathan: me and him? lisa: oh yeah. jonathan: we love each other. tom: silence on radio is deadly. isould suggest that the date underplayed right now. it is going to be a huge deal. jonathan: that was a pretty good joke from lisa, tom.

let's give her credit for that. tom: you nailed it, lisa. jonathan: every morning. [laughter] we are here all week, monday through friday. this is bloomberg. that's true. [laughter] ♪

jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." the price action shaping up as follows. we had a bounceback briefly than a move lower. dead flat on the s&p 500. in europe the mood music turns uglier after hearing from boris johnson on further restrictions the british economy. and in the 1.1741 barth -- and in the bond market 0.67%. chairman powell will be speaking in a couple of hours. we'll hear from him several times this week in d.c. sterling 1.2799. the prime minister speaking. a major change in the pandemic story in the u.k. arguably our most important interview of the day, fading in

fed policy from chairman powell and our conversation tomorrow with richard clarida. diane swonk joins us, so helpful on fed day. i want to get to the fed by first must ask you about the economic backdrop of the in theround state midwest as the presidential debate goes to cleveland and case western university. what is the state of the economy in ohio and the broader midwest? suffering fromll the pandemic and unemployment rates have risen dramatically. what most people forget is as much as chairman powell emphasized this is a low wage recession, it also has hit college-educated workers, and the unemployment rate is higher today for college-educated workers when it was during the great recession. it is a low wage recession but it has also reached up into

higher levels of education. theyumbers are so large get lost in translation. i have to move forward to this important conversation with richard clarida tomorrow. let's go to latin. my first question to him will be on how a central bank acts when inflation rises. to they get out front or do they get behind? where will the fed be, where will they act if and when they get inflation to rise? diane: clearly they do not agree on this. whatey would have told us their triggers on inflation were as they shifted to forward guidance. it is note seeing is just the level of inflation moving up. the fed would like to see that inflation getting up to 2.5% for the same period of time, which we have not been able to achieve.

it is the trajectory on inflation. the fed would not hesitate to act if inflation was moving up to 2.5% to 3% rapidly. that nuance makes this overshooting aspect of the fed policy very hard to convey to the average american, let alone financial markets. financial markets absorb what the fed was saying, they would accept the fed is saying we are willing to shift the balance of bargaining power from wall street to workers and allow wages to rise and run the economy a little hot to allow workers to have bargaining power for a period of time. if that settled in wall street we would she a different wall street today. jonathan: how divided is the fomc? diane: it is mostly in the same direction, although you have seen bullard talk about his concerns about inflation. if they were completely unison

and unanimous in terms of what they wanted, you would not have seen two dissents. you have neel kashkari at the minneapolis fed who thinks we need more overshooting, and robert kaplan saying we were not ,eady to go to forward guidance including some type of forward guidance where they commit to overshooting after the announcement at jackson hole was necessary. it is not deeply divided but it is not on the same page. when you're talking about overshooting on inflation it does make a difference when you're talking being about mild overshooting. the noise is undermining their message. jonathan: it would be harder to communicate if you did have a broad consensus on the fomc. i'm not in the business of making up excuses for chairman powell and what many felt was a bad news conference for him, but i wonder if that goes some way to explain why he cannot answer

questions in a clear and transparent way? diane: exactly. this is one of the issues we saw. he cannot say what these triggers were. the fed clearly wanted to provide more support. you can read in his early comments he will give to congress that we have done our job, it is your turn to do your job. we are trying to do more. and expressing what the fed is trying to do more about, he cannot be clear about that. if he cannot be clear because he does not have unanimous vote and they do not have clear triggers, it makes it much harder to say what this means. idea of guidance does not work as well as actual numeric triggers if they cannot agree what the triggers are. lisa: all of this highlights the deep uncertainty in the u.s. economy and global economy as we have not gotten rid of the virus yet. let's talk about the balance of risks because we do not have a

conclusion on the uncertainties. where is the balance of risk? incurring more debt or entering a period of a slowing economy that could head down into a further leg lower of recession? diane: sadly, i worry about it being the latter. the downside risks are greater given the complete ineptitude of congress to act. we know jay powell pointed out in his comments today it was because of the support we had that we were able to get the rebound in growth we had, and now not only is it the course of the virus that determines the course of the economy, but now we do not have that support and we do not see any coming. , i agree earlier guest financial markets are underestimating the ability of congress to come together, the clock is ticking. people are already going hungry, food insecurity is picking up. going into the holiday season when we like to gather a lot,

think about how many seasonal celebrations we cannot have this holiday season as the rate of virus cases pick up, and that is what consumers do on their own and firms do on their own. all of the holiday parties that are canceled, this will make the 2008 cancellation of parties look like a cakewalk from the corporate standpoint, and all the kind of entertaining that usually goes on inside of restaurant, that cannot occur to the same degree. that will have its own effect on the u.s. economy. at the same time you are seeing the outbreak in europe picked up and additional lockdowns in europe. this is a dire situation. i wish it was better. what bothers me is we are going into this with so many people still unemployed. lisa: you can talk about people not consuming as much. you can talk about if state and local governments do not get the funding from washington they are asking for, how much more could public unemployment rise. how much could we see the unemployment rate increase

beyond current estimates? diane: that is important. are 1.1 million down from february on state and local government employment. that number could compound. to could add another percent 2% onto unemployment over the next six to 12 months as the state and local government struggles to deal with the gaping holes in their budgets. that is very important, because it is another headwind of cold temperatures and the inability to eat outside like we have seen moving inside again that could exacerbate the situation. tom: what is come up in the last couple of days is good research on what i will talk -- what i will call the goods/services partition. we have never seen it before, given the disaster like a pandemic, some states are good at producing, and other states our service sector derived.

does the federal government have to take that into account when they try to do stimulus someday? diane: they certainly do. do you want to have enough companies still in business to be able to pick up when we can congregate again, and clearly a vaccine is not a panacea but it gets us toward that. that is still a year away and terms of herd immunity with a vaccine and it is important to understand the need to keep the businesses. it is an 80 year trend in discretionary spending and discretionary services we have seen that we have turned on its ear while at the same time you have higher income households, households work from home where the idea college-educated workers are not unemployed, they are, you do not see it as viscerally, but those households that have survived are buying new cars, they are buying exercise equipment, they are buying a lot of goods that have kept the economy doing much better and come back much faster

in some sectors than many expected. also repairs and upgrades and second homes. that is something only certain households can afford. we have also seen in the housing market, it embodies this quality. what we have seen so dramatically where you see people buying their first homes and getting more room, those who can afford to be further from city centers do come and those who cannot are stuck. jonathan: this time like -- tom: this timeline goes what we have learned on the simulcast, which is prime minister johnson teaching us to look out to march of 2021. that was a news item for global wall street. jonathan: see you in spring. an extended period of below potential for many economies. diane, great to catch up. one of my favorites. diane swonk. thank you. look at the headlines coming across the bloomberg. she is one of my favorites. lisa: you nailed it.

jonathan: every time she comes on. i've been pushing for that for about a year. a headline crossing the bloomberg right now. saudi arabia loading a plan to delay the g20 summit until december. said to take place in the back end of november. tom: what do you think? jonathan: one thing that will always stay with me, the back end of february when the central bankers got together, i will never forget that image, the back end of february. tom: did you have the bird on your hand? jonathan: they did that. that was them doing that. we have to remember the level of complacency going into this pandemic, and maybe we look too at the united states for that. there was complacency all around, in every single political party, each side of the aisle, every country, not just the united states. we have learned a lesson. one thing we can say is that

parts of america have learned a lesson. it has taken a long time for the u.k. to finally put together a plant that makes sense on wearing a mask. here we are at the end of september. from new york and london, this is bloomberg. ritika: senate republicans are moving quickly to set their strategy for confirming whoever to fill theump asks vacancy on the supreme court. thunedakota senator john says gop leaders will likely decide today on their timing for a confirmation vote. bloomberg has learned trump is leaning towards nominating amy coney barrett to replace ruth bader ginsburg. virusong will extend related social distancing measures for another week. hong kong has largely contained its latest wave of the coronavirus ceo carrie lam

cautions to remain on guard for what you call silent transmissions of the virus. restrictions are due to expire october 1. is typically seen pro-democracy protests in hong kong. a wildfire boarding northeast of los angeles is threatening more than 1000 homes today. the bobcat fire is one of more than two dozen blazes burning across california. five of the largest wildfires in state history are currently than 5600d more square miles have been scorched, that is an area larger than the state of connecticut. 23,000 california residents have been evacuated. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think the vast majority of us cannot wait until he can be back in the office again. hopefully that occurs sometime

next year. who knows exactly what the date may be? we have about 10% to 50% of our population working today in the office. jonathan: the apple ceo. the c-suite is thinking about 2021. they have not been complacent. apple showing leadership, closing stores before many others were thinking about it. once again thinking much deeper into the future i do not think governments have done. i will have the conversation with matt hornbach later this morning, morgan stanley's cheap rate strategist. looking forward to that around -- chief rate strategist. up, very different than a flat dow. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. we will slide right into this because i think it is something we've under reported an under discussed. that is intangibles, including plumbing, and the

acclaimed granite marble top. barry ritholtz joins us. barry, you've enjoyed the migration of 20 miles from climbs ofn out of the the hamptons of new york. the hamptons of this nation are booming. we all know the reasons why. what does that signal about the future for the haves as they invest in the markets? barry: there are a couple of interesting aspects to this. it is funny because we had a lot of work plans. we bought a fixer-upper and we have had a lot of work planned over the last couple of years. everything was put on hold in february and march. as the contractors have started being able to do work, i am always peppering them with questions. to me that is the best economic research you can do. it is shocking to find out that if you want lumber or timber or

any of the artificial lumber, there is an eight week delay. if you want pvc fencing, it is 12 weeks on backorder. granite, best of luck. you can finish a kitchen and you may not have the countertop with the\for months afterwards -- lash for backspa months. people realize they would be stuck at home and they are fixing up the place where they work, live, and play. tom: the question that is so important is that is the haves. that is part of americans booming. how do they adapt and adjust to the horrific unemployment we see among the have-nots? barry: that is a question for congress. one of the reasons we saw a partial economic recovery over

the past few months that seems to be plateauing his congress spent $3 trillion on a stimulus, they mailed a $1200 check out to everyone making under six figures and they extended and increased unemployment by $600 a week. the bottom two thirds of the economic earners in this country, when that money comes in, they spend it. the haves, they are dabbling with the granite and the subzero fridges. lisa: i am struggling to understand what this means in terms of what you invest in. you invest in granite countertops and perhaps lumber futures, there is a question, do you invest in cyclicals, do you invest in the rest of the economy that is supported by the potentially have-nots, not just the people building houses in the hamptons? barry: when we talk about the haves and have-nots, every

sector has become a winner take all bit of game theory. ,hen you look at retail, bj's cosco, target, walmart, they are all doing well. the rest of the retailers seem to be struggling. the logistic companies that are overseeing the movement of goods around the country at the last delivery, they seem to be doing well. homebuilders have snapped back. it is very selective. it is challenging to do a broad investment, a broad bet on the economic recovery because it is so lumpy and unevenly distributed. that is true whether you're talking about geographically, it is true whether you are talking about individual sectors within employment, and it is also true when you're talking about within the economic strata. the top one in 10%, the people fortunate enough to work remotely, they are doing ok and

spending much less than when they were going into the office on a daily basis. here, tom keene is doing research on subzero backsplash with or without the warming rack. tom: the warming rack is important. lisa: i see you're paying attention to this conversation. tom: barry and i are looking to do -- looking at what to do with the next 4000 square feet of property. we make jokes, but it is not funny. what do you make about the cash given the immense turmoil we see right now? barry: we saw what happens previously when there is a delay in elections such as 2000. the market wobbles a little bit and then it goes on doing what it was doing previously, and we saw that post 9/11 and we saw that pearl harbor, jfk assassination. i suspect even if this election takes weeks for there to be a

final decision, as long as no one does anything reckless, nobody advocates armed insurrection in the streets -- which is not unthinkable some people will take to twitter and say stupid, irresponsible things -- if we get through the month the world will continue on as it is going. hopefully by next year we have a widespread distribution of a vaccine for the virus. arember, these vaccines 50%, 60%, 70%. the data is not conclusive your antibodies last forever. this might be something we are working around for the next five or 10 years. who knows? tom: definitely into march of 2021 based on what the prime minister says. barry ritholtz, very interesting on the intangibles. on this crazy day, what is your

observation, lisa? lisa: seeing a bit of a reversal from yesterday, a firm up in prices, but not a comfortable one. yesterday we did see a selloff in the riskier credit markets. this is interesting. it is what people are watching. the likes of robert kaplan saying this is the indication a risk off deal is taking hold. i will be watching that today. jonathan: michael mckee speaking with robert kaplan, our kathleen hays speaking with mr. bullard. tomorrow the vice-chairman of the federal reserve system after the chairman speaks today. i have one observation, that is march of 2020, it started today. lisa: march of 2021. tom: excuse me. that was a surveillance correction. lisa: it is understandable. it is all melting together. tom: so sensitive. we should probably do yoga together. march of 2021. futures up three, nasdaq up .5%.

tomorrow, richard clarida, most important interview. stay with us, this is bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way

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worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "the countdown to the open." 30 minutes away with equity futures up two on the s&p 500, we advance not even .1%. we begin with the big issue. the market confronting two of them. >> more restrictions across the european continent. >> mixed messages out of capitol hill. >> new restrictions on the covid-19. >> much more expansive restrictions. >> the risk of massive lockdown measures. >> the narrative about a delayed election outcome. >> as we head toward november 3. >> november 3 craziness. >> the recent of elements around the supreme court. >> the lockdown determining the economic trajectory. >> this turmoil increasing the odds of volatility and increase fears this could be a difficult