>> good morning. it's 6:00 a.m. in the city of london. this is "bloomberg daybreak." here are today's stop stories. markets slump as warning for the need of more stimulus. stage nuchin takes the today. the chancellor sets out a new crisis plan to protect jobs. and contesting the election.

president trump refuses to commit to if he loses the election. he says he could try to accelerate the vaccine approval process ahead of november 3rd. just 6:00 a.m. here in the si of london. ma us in is off today. let's get a look at the markets. the nasdaq dropping below 3%. the benchmark in asia down more than 1.5%. futures, there you all in the red. move over the board. let's look at what happened across as set. the dollar still on course for the strongest week since april. we're up .1 of a percent. trading below $1900. citi says more upside. and morgan stanley taking the flip side. we'll talk about that later.

the crude just under $4 a barrel. john authors he's without a piece. he says this bout of stock market angst looks much darker. earlier sell offs is an intent to correct excessive prices in companies. dominant he said we took things too far as we might have taken things in completely the wrong direction. let's digest all of this with georgette, senior analyst. we had this selloff. and for me, it's not really anything new. everyone had warned that we could see fresh resurgence of cases that was going to come this winter. we're at the end of september. of course, we have the election jitters, ahead of the u.s. election. and on top of that, we have the fed really pointing to the fact

we don't have fiscal stimulus yet in the united states. where do you stand? what do you make of this? is there a downward trend left in these markets? >> good morning. no, the thing is with the markets these days they have been very optimistic over the summer. and then you come in a period where you get more focused on the other things that are happening and more risk in the market. and we're talking from brexit to the cases to yet the company as well because they -- it is weaker than expected. yet the election is drawing closer. these things get done to the focus of investors. and they also realize that the moves that we have seen over the summer have been a bit too aggressive, too large. so they get a bit nervous. then you get a bit of a change in market sentiment. some taking some profit. and then if you get some weaker

data, and you have a pickup in covid cases, then, they feel ore uncomfortable in the stock . so i think that it's more something like that. it's -- it's a change in the environment. usually september, you have the full market there again. the holidays are a different kind of market. >> yes. what assets will do well in the environment? normally people will pile money. but they've done nothing since he end of march. georgette: what you see in this kind of environment investors take profit on open positions. now, net long gold and other precious metals. so what they do, they just take profit on some of those positions and you see recovery of the dollar and some weaker prices elsewhere. that is usually the case.

a better move then you see a big move into safe havens, but for now, i would say investors are taking some profits on open positions because they're a bit more cautious. if this continues longer, you get an even stronger move. >> a few weeks ago, the market was really riding it off. it seems a bit premature. do you agree? >> no, the thing is is that we -- we're also negative on the dollar on the longer term. often encouraging markets to move that way. yeah, some weeks ago, the sentiment was really, really extremely negative. and i think at that point in ime it was a bit too much. and some recovery was possible.

and i still think the recovery will be coming in the next few weeks, we think. and then later in the year and next year, i think the dollar will fall again. he's making a shift in terms of that furlough program. cable has broken through the 200-day moving average or just perched on top of it. deep dive ahead. many are warning, georgette. do you agree is there more risk of a down side on sterling? >> yes, we have more weakness in sterling in the near term especially versus the dollar. we think we can be 1.25. of course, the development on brexit especially the trade negotiations are also very important. so in the case of sterling, and

the economy and the central bank will they do negative numbers? no. it doesn't mean it will be done right away or it will be done t all. and this all together as well with the search in covid -- surge in covid cases is weighing on sterling. so i think sterling will see more down side. in the end we think there will be a trade deal. the brexit negotiation will move in a more positive direction but it will take time. and that should help somewhat. >> georgette, quickly. do you expect a proper trade deal by the end of the year? >> not a proper trade deal. it will probably be some -- some -- not that everything is covered. but some kind of a trade deal.

s r -- people are getting more concerned that we won't have it at all. i would say that sterling is looking at that. i don't think there's upset that the it will suffer a bit. >> georgette boele. let's get to the news. laura. laura: morning an marie. no murder demarges the fatal shooting of breonna taylor. , charged one single officer with wanton endangerment. at least two police officers have been shot. tiktok is asking president trump from banning it from u.s. app story this is weekend. it comes as beijing is

threatening to kill off the deal as an american trap. will who own what. tiktok is a contention issue. the u.k. is considering its first vaccine studies that deliberately expose people to the virus. it has gained momentum. and a growing number of volunteers have signed up to take part this can speed up research but raises ethical questions to a potentially fatal virus. france is cracking down on bars an gyms to help stop the spread of coronavirus. it's limiting gatherings in patrice and other cities. but the merci is affected. and all restaurants involved will be shut. global news 24 hours a day. powered more than 2700 journalists an analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. an marie?

an marie: thank you so much. jay powell pleads for more stimulus. speakers make a similar point yesterday. we discuss u.s. stimulus. will we get it before the end of the year? let's take a look at the price action. we had a selloff on wall street that of course is hitting the asian equities market. down more than 1.5%. fumpes in europe pointing to a -- r start here in europe few starts in europe pointing number.er this is is bloomberg.

an marie: good morning. i'm anne marie.

jay powell is pleading for more stimulus. during the second day, testifying, he pushed back against suggestion at the fed's favoring markets of the people during the pandemic. vice chairman richard clarida agreed with powell. >> what we're saying quite simply is that perhaps in a normal recession or perhaps if we were back in february, then obviously getting to 2% and moderately exceeding 2% would be within our forecast to rise. but because of the depth of the shock, the economy has to recover. and as i said in our baseline that recovery relative to the last downturn will occur in about three, three-plus years. but overshooting is just an academic point. and we actually want to get the economy 2% inflation. and along with fiscal support that that can happen.

>> meanwhile, fund manager has come on this show and said we are at risk of creating an asset price bubble if not creating it already. how does that factor into your calculus about when to tighten in policy? >> that's a good question. financial stability is always an important consideration. we get regular briefings on financial stability. we issue a twice yearly report. we're very attentive and attune to that risk. but it's also important to remember, lisa, we have a duel mandate assigned from congress which is maximum employment and price stable. if we were to become concern that financial stability put our goals at risk, then we would have to factor that in. but lisa, we also believe that monetarily policy, raising or lowering rates is a pretty blunt instrument. and our inclination is to work with other agencies on regulation supervision, bank

liquidity and other dimensions than simply raising or lowering rates to deal with financial stability. >> i guess another way of asking this, is how effective can the fed be without any fiscal support or another round that injects direct aid to companies, to individuals? > well, the chair powell indicated, obviously that's for the executive branch. we do think that additional fiscal support will likely be needed. i think -- it's very clear that the cares act which passed in march was really historic government response to a historic crisis. $3 trillion package provided significant support to the economy. the economy has made a lot of progress, lisa, about 11 million new jobs have returned. but we do have a high rate of unemployment. we have businesss that are

suffering. additional fiscal support will likely be needed. >> that was fed vice chairman richard claida sounding the need for more fiscal support. he wasn't the only one. we heard from roider moster, eric rosengran and jay powell signaling more is needed from congress. georgette boele is still with us this morning. georgette, everyone from the fed is pointing the finger squarely at congress, the need for more fiscal support. do you think we will see something? i can't even ask before november 3rd because i don't think that's possible. before the end of the year? >> no, i think before the election is very difficult because they are, yeah, they're negotiating -- it's not going anywhere. and if there will be a kind of package, it probably will be, yeah, less than it was -- less than the package we have seen. so, yeah, overall, we think and

that's probably what the fed is signaling, you get the -- the -- the unemployment especially department unemployment is rising. and that's what makes them concerned. but we see it will continue to rise going forward having a more negative secondary impact on the economy. so yeah, it's difficult to say if they'll get to a package. but then you still have the second round effects getting nto the economy. annemarie: we have the u.s. unemployment out. charles evan said his 5.5% unemployment rate outlook is based on $1 trillion of support. at is your case -- take on what the u.s. economy will look like if we don't get that stimulus support? we'll see weakness in the

economy and in the second half of next year, our concern is recovery not usually so but a bit more above consensus. but this is -- yeah, factoring at it's going to be a very large stimulus package because it's uncertain that we will get that. but at some point in time, you will see the recovery towards the second half of next year, recovering. if you look at what the fed is going, they do everything they can to keep, yeah, financial arkets but also the economy to support as far as they can. so i can understand that they re calling for more stimulus and especially if there would be more covid cases in the u.s.

you see that it's more in europe, the focus on that than in the u.s. >> yeah, and jay powell today will speak again. and he's likely going to stay in the same tone as far as soundsing the alarm on stimulus. ahead of the election, we heard from all the banks saying what they expect depending if we get a biden presidency or four more trump. do you think that will set out emand for the u.s. dollar? >> i think the yield depends on what the fed is going to do we don't on't think think they want to happen in u.s. treasury yields because they're then going to probably step up the -- so i think in general up to the elections in

general uncertainty is not good for currency. if you get forces getting closer to each other, yes, this will hamper the dollar or could even weaken a bit. the coming weeks we have a lot of debates and -- and things being focused on. i would say could create some uncertainty. at the same time, it very much depends if -- if bide or trump -- ble to push through it's yeah, program. if he's going for more stimulus , yeah, you have a fiscal deficit going even further. and that's one of the more longer term negative fundamentals for the dollar. ut yeah, there are more than -- it's on hold for a long time.

so i would say the longer term picture overall for the dollar is deteriorating anyway. , i think t-term dynamics could support somewhat if they detect it deteriorating in the environment we're seeing now. >> georgette, stay with us from ab and amril. ou have a diploma in gemology. let's take a look at the markets. it is risk of tone as mark cranfield says when you have european stocks can't find a positive softer tone with a softer currency it sets for a really bad day. up next, though. j.p. morgan says trump election tweet will spur race volumity. we'll discuss when bloomberg returns.

annemarie: good morning. in the city of london, time for your morning call with juliette salley. juliette, it's a call from j.p. morgan, this is is how trump's tweets could affect markets. i know it started as a bit of a oke with covfeve but i think this is called valfefe? >> yes, it certainly started on the back of that infamous tweet of it in the back of 2017. and the j.p. morgan analysts is looking at how much his tweeting affects the markets. and they found that even though trump's tweets are not quite as high or having quite of a market impact as they were back in may, words such as

ventilators are getting a lot of action and volatility come through in the market. this is a change from a year ago when the words that shook up the market were more like million, china. the election and covid-19 and geo politics. it could be a much more bullish factor. so the president tweeting remaining a statistically driver of volatility here, annemarie. >> what does morgan stanley have to say about them? >> yeah, we've been talking about what this recovery is going to look like. they say it will be a v-shaped recovery thanks to a lot of stimulus coming through. that's going to be positive. in terps of commodities. that will be a winner this cycle. prices to reach $3.50 a pound. and the top mining equity picks

go from around the globe, canada, mexico, south africa. they like grupo mexico, tech and vale. >> thank you so much. i want to continue on that theme of metals. look at the precious metals with georgette boele. you've won several forecast polls by both bloomberg and fast markets. my question for you today is this diver generals we saw from city saying gold price expected to top their record due to the election. but morgan stanley says they should remain subdued. what is your outlook right now on gold? >> in the near term we are expect a bit more price weakness. that's mainly true that gold is a good commodity. all the stocks are that are

aligned. ou have low u's. physical deficits which are rising. so if you take everything together -- the environment will go positive. and also you the weaker dollar. but everyone has bought into the team already. and at some point in time, this kind of driver is losing their momentum. that's what we've mean? gold prices that we took it at the high of some years ago we made a new high. we've been above 2,000. and now, you know, there is a bit of reluctance to push prices higher i think because most of the people are already in the market. and when you see that in an environment a few weeks ago that the dollar is under pressure. why gold is not making new highs that's usually a warping sign. we've taken the previous low -- >> georgette, we're going to

have to leave it there. senior fx at ab and amril gold. this is bloomberg. give you my world ♪

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>> good morning, from bloomberg's european headquarters from london. hordern.arie powell mnuchin takes the stage again. lockdown lights. france won't impose a lockdown in some virus cases. the chancellor sets out a new crisis plan to protect jobs.

and contesting the election. president trump refuses to commit to a peaceful hand over if he loses the election. he says he could try to accelerate the vaccine approval process ahead of november. good morning. it's just gone 6:30 in the city of london. ma us in is -- ma us in is off today usually my co-host from dubai. let's look at the correction. that's leading to the asian marks. 6%.re down 1. the ny blockers say when european stocks can't find a positive, it sets up a really bad day. let's see what's going on. bloomberg preparing that recent run-up still on course for the strongest week since april. gold 18.54. georgette, who by the way is one of the best forecasters,

she sees near-term weakness and market doing nothing. and we have increases in covid infections. the government says it is not considering a new nationwide lockdown as draconian measures we saw early on in the pandemic. with us to discuss more is our ris bureau anchor:. what are the concerns? >> something needed to be done as we have see the number of new cases increasing like massively over the past few weeks. and there's also the local reaction. because what the government right now is doing is actually

implementing local restriction. for example in mers sigh severing closed from saturday night. it's not just bars are closing earlier. they are just closed, period. so this came as a shock to the local hospitality industry. this was like not expected. and obviously some people are trying to fight this on the political ground. at the same time, when you see the number of new cases there, you feel like the french had no -- no -- no choice whatsoever. >> i think a lot of governments feel that way. you know, i get up very early to do this shift. and there fts a lot of people i -- there was a lot of people out and about in central london because starting this evening, thursday evening, the u.k. pubs and restaurants will be closing at 10:00 a.m. earlier than usual. i'm not sure if some people wanted to gate last hoorah before things started to become more grim.

thanks to geraldine for giving us an update on what is going on in france. germany's ethos survey is due in the next few hours. t's an indicator of german's -- germany's growth. re to talk us to is dani burger. dani: they give us the high frequency indicators that are longer term to look back. here i have public transportation chgs in the restaurant bookings in the blue. truck toll mile edge in the purple. and weekly street football in the yellow. what we see is a change in consumer behavior since march. so one of the best things that have come back is restaurant bookings. back to normal. struck toll adge has done well. you can see that also football

for retail sectors has picked up as well. this picture looks better than most european regions. now, why could that be? part of it is germany's response. i love these indices. it gives us a measure of how stringent the lockdown measures are. germany is in the white here. i compared it to france and italy. the interesting thing you see germany imposes these measures later on in the other countries. and when they do, they're less severe. so it might have hadless of an overall impact on consumer behavior. it's pretty much y'all with system of tore countries. this is a lag that we expect to see france pick up. no, not everything is rosy, especially when we look at the labor mark. we did see this really huge jump in the number of unemployment. and the measure of slack in the labor market is probably much worse than what we're actually seeing in the numbers because of the german scheme which

helps pay some of the furloughed workers. 've heard companies like daimler. germany might be doing better, they might be helping their employed workers but still they're a far ways off from seeing a full recovery back to normal annemarie. >> it's important to see what germany is doing because we're rishey hear from cernak. he wants to prepare a fresh batch of jobs. the u.s. chancellor is studying german style measures to replace existing subsidys that end in ottke. he's expected to give a plan. joining to discuss this and what's going on with the covid resurgence is anna annenburg. anna, good morning to you. thank you so much for joining us this morning of it's a really big day because we could

see the shift from sunak in terms of the jobs program. what are you expecting him to say today? >> the gem scheme has proven pretty good. i mean, you still see a rise in unemployment, of course. but i think it's the balanced overall. and the gemscheme has to be applied in other european countries as well. in france similar to the german scheme and spain. and it has helped the economies there very much. and i think we're going to see unemployment rise left as a result of that. it's a scheme for german government, for the french government. and as a result, it can be used longer. so that will be a big part of the announcement today. i think we're going to see this rolled out for a longer period of time. >> right. and obvious, the prerequisite

to all that is bow russ johnson saying another six months. bring 2021. we want people off the streets and working from home. many people question the current unemployment data in the united kingdom saying it's really not the right picture. when you look turned hood what, do you see as the unemployment picture in the united kingdom? >> well, i think there are a lot of things that are hidden. the biggest problem with the scheme was not just that it was extremely costly. but it was also the fact that initially, it forbids people from working. it meant that people were receiving their salaries, because companies did not have enough productivity because people weren't allowed to work. and that continued for weeks and months on end. so companies were used to not having those contacts to the workers which made it much easier to let them go. we're going to see a big spike in unemployment.

that allowed its employees and workers and the furms to stay in much closer contact. so that's the key think. the numbers are probably higher than what we're seeing at the moment. >> and then what about a hard brexit? are you considering a hard brexit to actually happen at the end of the year. and if so what, does that mean for unemployment and growth? >> no, we expect a deal to be reached at around 70% likelihood. we think that the current debate that we're hearing is mainly negotiation tactic including the u.k. internal market bill some of we think we're going to get a deal probably in october, mid october. early november. and it will be signed off in time. however, even if we get a deal and that's something that's forgotten. it will be a pretty straight deal. it will exclude large parts of that sector. there's going to be a lot of positive reactions to the deal. but ultimately, the impact to

the u.k. economy and the european economy is not going to be great. yes, it's going to be another hit for the economies across europe and in the u.k. >> and it's not just the u.k. that's doing these new measures in terms of a resurgence of covid cases. we heard geraldine talking about what france is doing. having these lockdown light measures. they're not the draconian measures we saw early on. is this giving the economies a little bit of a lifeline? >> it's difficult to say. i think the problem with these light lockdown measures. d you are -- they are very confusing. and people are starting to ignore them not taking them very seriously anymore. and that means that people aren't really taking, you know, care of passing on the virus. nd so you have to spike an infections rate. of course, the local lockdowns are much better for the economies than a big massive

national lockdown. and so i don't think we're going to head into the direction of big national lockdowns anymore. it's too coastly. it's too disruptive. but the fact is, it's going to remain very disruptive even with the lighter lockdown measures. and we just have to get used to this. this is going to be the new normal for a while. i think expectations for a weekend were far too high and early in the sum e. and because to virus was always going to come back with full force in the autumn. >> yeah, you're seeing investors really start to confront that. a lot of the reason we see the marks selling off it's because of things we knew. thank you so much for joining us this thursday morning. now, let's get to more news making around the world with laura. good morning, laura. >> laura officials are saying another stimulus is important for the economy.

chicago said president charles evans is concerned it won't be forthcoming. and eric rosen grad. it may not happen until next year. fargo's c.e.o. has apologized over comments that the struggle to fine parts was down to a limited talent pool. >> they were misinterpreted before a showing and say thage were insensitive and showed disrespect. alifornia will babb gasoline cars. and the governor's says he's batting historic wildfires. he touted the existing strength 234 electric vehicles. global news 24 hours a day on ir and on "bloomberg." this is is bloomberg. annemarie. >> laura, in london. thank you very much.

we hear from former secretary of state hillary clinton. and ruth bader ginsburg's legacy. that's next. here is bloomberg.

♪ annemarie:ed this "bloomberg daybreak." now, former secretary of state hillary clinton says republican republican's rush could spell the end to obamacare. hillary go to clinton on if equality summit. >> ruth was innovative. it led to a lot of the decisions that changed our world. it's hard for younger people to even imagine, but when i was a

young woman, i was not eligible for credit or a credit card or a mortgage. it didn't matter how much money i made, i was absolutely prohibited because i was a woman. and so these kinds of changes that everybody now just assumes have been around for forever, really can be attributed to the decades' long effort that ruth began to knock down the barriers for women's equality. but more than that for equality and inclusivity across the board. >> her most fervent wish we know were told to her granddaughter was that she not be replaced until after a new president was elected. but that obviously now we know is not going to happen. where does this all go now? is it up to the american people and the election? how does this play out?

>> she was offering her measured opinion that it would be in the interest of our country an most certainly in the interest of the court. so close to an election. to allow the election to go forward and then whoever was elected would be able to choose the next justice. i really respect that. i understand that it's not going to be honored. and now, we are left with what will be a very unfortunate splay of partisan power to push through whoever the president nominates. and what i hope the american people will pay attention to -- it's not the chip and the conflict in the senate. and all. but what's at stake? what's at stake for them. because one thing about ruth bader beginsburg, she never

lost sight of the impact that her decisions had on the people she repped as a lawyer or the people who were involved in the case that she adjudicated as a judge. and i think it's absolutely clear that what's really at stake first and foremost in this choice is healthcare. the clerk is scheduled to hear yet another challenge to the affordable care act. right after the election. so presumably whoever is appointed can participate in some way in that decision. and it really speaks to the fervent desire of the republicans under trump. trump and mccon knoll get rid of the affordingable care act in the middle of a pandemic that has cost us more than 200,000 lives.

and having this seat filled right now as opposed to waiting until we know who the president is, could very well mean the end of the affordable care act. and the loss of healthcare for millions of americans who have offered from covid-19. and thrmb may now have, new existing, preexisting conditions that will render them less affordable for healthcare. >> in the context of what's going to be happening to the supreme court. there have been those who have talked about, ruminated about, speculated about. lobbiesed for. i need to expand the court. do you see that as a practical option? >> i think that's a step too far right now. >> the democrats, the press, the public really need to make it absolutely clear what's at stake with this appointment.

because yes, yeah, maybe they have the votes. but they should have to justify and defend what they are doing at this point when they're not providing additional assistance to the unemployed in our country. when they're not helping state and local governments deal with the tremendous fallout of the covid crisis. >> that was former secretary of state hillary clinton in an interview for the bloomberg equality summit. speaking about herless e legacy -- it was very influential. and what her vacancy now means at the supreme court, president trump reviews -- refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power. for more on that we're joined by eric wonbak. he's an insider. derek, what does this mean? is the u.s. democracy at risk for a statement like that?

>> well, it was certainly a really unusual statement. i mean, i lived in miami during v. gourde and all of the rendon that happened there. that was a fish sure that really hasn't quite healed still. if something were to actually go through it would be another giant rending. but there's a lot of steps though between now and here. what donald strump signaling, you know, he said very openly -- his thoughts about mail-in ballots. he is -- he has questioned them. robably the scope of available evident. but there's real possibility that return come in. they're going to look better for the president than the final results. because a lot of trump voters are likely to vote in person and a lot of more biden persons are likely to vote by the mail.

what you right here that is the president sort of setting the groundwork for challenges that will come or may come depending on where things shakeout over the course of the voting. and he's tilling the ground the be ready to plant those seeds when the time comes. >> yeah, and he said potentially this could go in front of a supreme court. and that is obviously going to be a main story this week because of saturday. what are you expecting from the president on saturday. who will he nominate? >> well, i'm not in the business of prognosticating quite that. but i can say that amy coney barrett who is who is -- who is a very big name in conservative circles and the name on everybody's list, there's another judge down in there florida who may be concerned as well. but coney barrett is where a lot of attention that is been gone. this is a name that a lot of

conservatives are excited about but she has almost no crossover appeal at all. she's hard right. she would go exactly the way conservatives want a lot of big issues. show won't get necessarily any democratic vote. someone that n -- you would know what you would get. >> thanks so much for joining us this morning. this is bloomberg. stay with us.

♪ >> just over an hour away from the european market open. let's take a look at stories. the aviation industry, leaders coming in a festival. it's facing unprecedented disruption. we're bringing you with the easy jet c.e.o. that's guy johnson's interview. 12:00 p.m., they are expected

to hold the benchmark rate at 8.25%. and the big one, the chancellor will give a statement on the economy this afternoon. and then the united states yet again, we hear from more fed officials. and after two days in front of the financial house services committee, jerome powell and mnuchin give their quarterly cares about. you can bet we're going to hear fed officials ring the alarm that more stimulus is needed. let's take a look at the marks. we're an hour away from the european markets' open. aisha 1.5%. but euro stocks down. the prominence is going to be what sunak has to say. now, maybe looking to attempt to change it and maybe make it a little bit more like what they did in germany.

and a little bit firmer on the u.s. dollar. nymex just over $40. european open next with anna and matt. stay with us. this is bloomberg. look here, it's your very own all-in-one

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anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets the european open. the markets say, watch the insiders. corporate executives sell stock at a fast pace and the latest market dip. futures point to big losses at the start of european trading this morning. the cash trade is an hour away. grim tidings.