>> if the customers are broke, until and unless congress acts, they will be broke. >> we are still going into this weakness with so many people still unemployed. >> monetary policy will do its part. it is not the primary driver. >> additional fiscal support will likely be needed. >> everyone agrees they should do more fiscal. unfortunately the politics is going to get in the way of that right now. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 500, inchese s&p away from correction territory and a couple away from turning negative for 2020. is ato me, that correction. what is interesting is it is

really settle this morning. i've got to go right to the deepest market exchange. the dollar strength is really resilient. jonathan: the treasury marketjonathan: not doing what the treasury market would typically do in an equity downdraft. so many people have come on this show talking about it. there it is, the 10 year yield doing nothing. your yield, 0.67%. you could clip that, repeat it, and it would have been true for the last five days. tom: when you intrude into market spaces, markets don't give you signals. i've been surprised by it. the completeness of the bond market and this lethargy has been extraordinary. it is where the bond market gives up giving signals. jonathan: the data 90 minutes away in america. lisa: we get a sense of how much momentum is flowing down in the u.s..

we get the latest reading on initial jobless claims in the united states, and continuing claims as well. more discussion from jay powell and steven mnuchin, asking for more fiscal support from washington. the market seems to be indicating they are less confident that they will get it. it is being written off, which could be part of the reason behind the weakness we are seeing. later today, president trump speaking in north carolina and florida, really riling a lot of the common sentiment yesterday when he said he would not necessarily concede peacefully ,f joe biden did win the ballot basically talking about how difficult the remote election will be. how do you price in a contested election? jonathan: i don't think you can. i think you price and a lot of volatility, and that is exacted what is happened. i want to turn to the united kingdom briefly. chancellor rishi sunak on his feet in the house of commons, saying the following, that the

u.k. economy is likely to go through a permanent adjustment. i guess for that reason, it is why he said this morning the furlough program will end. he goes on to say that we need to create new opportunities and viable jobs. that furlough program will be replaced with the following scheme. has top wage workers returning to shorter hours. the government will support up to 2/3 of pay. the support will be targeted to those who need it most. the program will run for six months. the job support program will begin in november. more broadly, away from the specificity of the united kingdom, what is important is the first headline from the chancellor, that this economy is going through permanent change. what we are seeing now from the british chancellor and others as well is they are starting to think about the idea of creative destruction, allowing this economy to change it adapt to

permanent shifts in the economy. six months ago it was about something different. tom: this really goes back to the advent of 2007 in august, where there is going to be no pain to working out of the financial crisis. you're absolutely right about the reaffirmation of creative destruction here. happeningice, this is in the united kingdom. the case dynamic is terrible. just dynamic is much better, frankly. but what we are seeing on the screen right now, for those of you on radio, it is a green leather of the house of commons. we are not seeing this in america. when will we see it? jonathan: that is the big question. how many other countries will embrace the fiscal shift? we want to turn to the price action more broadly. this morning, s&p 500 futures

unchanged, up around about a point. in the bond market, it has been a real snooze. as tom points out, dollar strength for all the wrong reasons. who remembers $1.20? that is a huge turnaround. we will bring in our brexit editor in the united kingdom. let's bring you brian levitt, invesco global market strategist. so many people talking about sitting this out, sitting the next three months out and just watching everything play out, and then coming back and. what do you say to those people? in the marketime that matters more than timing in the market. investors that want to sit out, the challenge is when do they get back in? a lot of people saying that if joe biden wins, maybe i will sit out the first one hundred days after the inauguration. i look back to 1957. if you had put in thousand

dollars hypothetically in the market in 1957 and stayed fully invested, today it is over $800,000. if you missed the first 100 days after each and duration going back to 1957, you make half of the money. it is not as extreme to sit out in the fall months because the great recession figures into that and skews the numbers, but still, in any analysis, you are better off staying the course than trying to time around elections and inaugurations. tom: let's talk about the market infrastructure right now. are we building a wall of worry right now that will assist us forward? brian: i think so. stocks had gotten a bit overbought in the near-term amid some excitement about the renewed economic recovery. i think we all knew this economic recovery would happen with fits and starts. we have been talking about different waves of the coronavirus since the start of

it. we have been talking about having the shutdown of segments of the economy. but we have learned a lot more about this disease then we did early on. we know we can continue to engage in the economy if we continue to take direct steps to protect ourselves. we have the fiscal deal, the concerns about a contested election. creates volatility or potential drawdowns and markets. i would ask investors to ask themselves two big questions. if we have a contested election, does it change the direction of the economy, and does it change the direction of monetary policy? if the answers to those questions are no, we continue to expect a recovery into 2021 and beyond. lisa: there's an incredible irony baked into the market right now. biggestar having its strengthening streak against its peers since the march turmoil,

and yet this uncertainty stems from the united states in large part. how does this make sense? at what point does the narrative shift, where people start to penalize the u.s. for being the source of so much turmoil? brian: i don't know if we are there yet. you would need an alternative as a safe haven currency. for now, the u.s. dollar continues to be the safe haven asset. saw that during the covid outbreak as well, the high of it -- the height of it with the united states was the most impacted. the move in the dollar, i think where we were early in the spring was very disconcerting. we had inflation expectations plunging this country. the fed threw everything they could edit and took the pressure -- they could at it and took the pressure off the dollar.

what we are dealing with right now is uncertainty around policy front, concerns about rising covid case is driving people back to a say haven currency. i don't expect that to sustain itself over time. united states is going to be running pretty big deficits, ongoing monetary support, and i expect we will get the virus under control. what you have right now is a near-term flight to quality that could persist for a little while, but i don't think it is long-term sustainable. jonathan: where is the bid in the treasury market? that: it is the market hasn't moved all that much. i suppose we could see that is a pretty good sign. the treasury market is overbought if you consider the projected growth rate of the u.s. economy. we all look at lake projected we -- late projected labor force growth. if rates are going to be at 65 basis points, it is overbought.

it suggests to me that the bond market has already priced in concern, fears about whether a recovery can sustain itself. if it goes on longer, could you see long rates come in? sure. but if you are looking out over the next year or so, you would expect or certainly hope that the united states in real terms can grow faster than 60, 70 basis points, which suggests to me that the treasury market is pretty overbought. jonathan: brian, great to catch up, as always. my best to the team at invesco. let's get to the price action in foreign-exchange. cable is positive on the day. sterling against the dollar up 0.2%. just a moment ago, we heard from chancellor rishi sunak in the united kingdom. on those headlines, joining us now is david merritt here in london. walk us through what we have learned in the last 10 minutes or so.

david: this long-awaited statement from mr. thune act -- details largely flagged in advance that there's going to be a new program to support jobs. 2/3 of wages the government is now saying it will pay for jobs that they are calling vital. i think you made the point about the creative destruction. he's acknowledging that there is a permanent shift in the british economy. they need to take account for -- forea they are not that. they are not going to prop up jobs that are going to disappear on account of the pandemic. but also a rather bleak , saying at least six months we will see all of these restrictions on the economy. a long, dark winter stretching out ahead for the british people here.

what is the historic model here? is this thatcher-like? does this harken back to the torrey -- the tory fear of socialism? david: this sort of thing has never been tried before with the british economy, and particularly from a conservative government, it was extraordinary enough the original furlough scheme. this is now stretching off for longer into the future. the cost of this as well. he didn't put a dollar or pound amount on this, but he did say the cost was going to have to be bought by everyone. unusual,ry extraordinary and unprecedented. lisa: what is the main question stemming from sunak's remarks today? david: i think the cost of this,

how much debt is going to have to be issued. what is the bill going to be, and how is that going to be spread out over time? and of course, is it enough to keep unemployment low, to keep people in jobs, to stop businesses shutting their doors for good, especially with the news that they have six more months of this to go at least? tom: jon ferro, what do you thing about this? jonathan:jonathan: what is a viable job? who gets to decide what a viable job is in this environment? we can talk about creative destruction in free markets. it is not a free market if we get told when we can and can't go to work. they are talking about permanent shifts. i understand that. but they are making a decision in government what is or is not a permanent shift. this is not an open economy yet, and i wonder who gets to make that decision. maybe other governments will

follow. this morning, good morning. much more still to come. equities unchanged on the s&p 500. up soon's, kathy jones of charles schwab. this is bloomberg.

pres. trump: we are going to have to see what happens. i've been complaining very strongly about the ballots. the ballots are a disaster. >> but people are rioting.

do you commit to making sure there is a peaceful transfer of power? pres. trump: get rid of the ballots, and there won't be a transfer, frankly. there will be a continuation. the ballots are out of control. you know it. jonathan: every day that passes, i've got to say, that debate gets a whole lot more interesting, and it is just five days away. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures are down around two points on the s&p 500. let's get to the price action very quickly. cross asset worldwide, the bond market with a yield of 0.67% on the 10 year. $1.1644.ar, tom: turkish lira has come in. there's been some nice intervention from the central bank. finally, turkish lira gets a bid. e.m. the last four or five days has really been a struggle. on radio later, i hope to have amy intesa hour with us.

so good on all it -- i hope to have damian sassower with us. so good on all of this. kevin cirilli, there is so much going on. before i want to get to the debate, i want to talk about the fabric of washington, d.c. in the last one he four hours. the law clerks sprawled across -- across the steps of the supreme court, down to the protests in louisville. kevin: here in d.c. there have been protests, but not to the extent we saw over the summer. i think you captured very well this moment in american history, just five days before a presidential debate. i think the intensity around these battleground states and in fluidity of these polls battleground states has been remarkable. take a state like arizona, a crucial state that president trump and his campaign really wants to hold onto.

a poll came out just yesterday that has president trump up by just one percentage point in this state against joe biden. a poll several weeks ago had biden leading. so it is really a fluid race, especially in the battleground states. but the battleground states are interpreting the developments. in louisville, as well as at this bring court -- developments in louisville, as well as the supreme court, in their own local ways. tom: what are we going to see at case western university tuesday evening? kevin: i think you are going to see president trump who is really looking to draw a sharp contrast and to be very much on the attack, and i think you are going to see a biden that is incredibly prepared. whether or not it is over prepared, we are going to have to anc. the biden campaign -- we are going to have to wait and see. the biden campaign has said they

have studied hillary clinton's performance at the debates and have learned from them. no doubt this is going to be a very important date for both campaigns to set the tone in the final drum up to the election. jonathan: what do you think they've learned from them? kevin: i think you are going to see joe biden be more aggressive. i think you going to see joe biden, based upon the conversations i have had, not be afraid to go back and forth with president trump. i think back to the debate andeen then governor romney then president obama. for romney at that time, the expectation was that obama is an incredible debater, but romney came out swinging and won the first debate. so i think you could see the to take thatn try

political playbook. but i would quickly note that biden come of the last time he had a national type of debate against sarah palin, there was a on that debate, and he didn't necessarily win that. and he struggled during the primaries, if you remember pre-covid. he's had an interesting history with these type of debates. republican -- the what sort of republican response is there to president trump's comments yesterday, that he would not necessarily commit to a peaceful transfer of power? kevin: they are saying that he would have a peaceful transfer of power, but several are uneasy about that type of rhetoric. whether or not that becomes even more pushed and more vocal, we will be covering. but beyond that, if you look at the calendar, the november 3

election, the november 10 obamacare opening trial for the supreme court, and of course, the very contentious supreme court confirmation process, november 3 is just the start. , a end of this calendar year government shutdown likely. they have to pass a continuing resolution. it is going to be a very intense end-of-the-year. tom: you go back 60 years to the first debate almost a day -- almost to the day, kennedy-nixon. we have seen this before in the 1800 election. great. is the this ends up people around the candidates. where is the republican party on what we have served in the last 24 hours of the president questioning the voting process? kevin: i think that what is nuanced about the mail-in ballot issue is several republican

states -- look at kentucky, where senate majority leader mitch mcconnell's state, they like the mail-in ballots. that has benefited republicans. tom: but what he said yesterday, whatever your politics, was original to say the least. where is the response this morning, or is it so dysfunctional that there is just a deathly silence? kevin: i don't think you are going to hear much about it. republicans and democrats are very focused in the sprint to the election. the kennedy-nixon debate, i think this also is a vital campaign, a social media biden andand both president trump are going to be playing to the social media fors and pushing that out their respective platforms. jonathan: kevin, great to catch

up, as always. tom, that is what bugs me about these debates. it is always about plaintiff social media and the one-liners -- about playing social media and the one-liners. do you remember that one from president obama? the 1980's called, and they want their foreign policy back. tom: i am fascinated by what we will observe in cleveland on tuesday. i honestly don't know what to expect. jonathan: let's talk about what is original this time around. we have a president developing a postelection strategy. just think about that. it is a postelection strategy, what you do from november 4, and talking about what that strategy might be. tom: i am not going to comment on the specific strategies of any of these candidates. i will just say there has been a chaos out there, as witnessed all of the books that have come

out against the sitting president. jonathan: in the market is pricing and some of that chaos. futures come in four points on the s&p. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i wish i could pull back the curtain and tell you what just happened. [laughter] jon, with all the serious events we are covering, we should just do a synopsis of what we talk about in the middle of the bricks. lisa: anarchist -- middle of the breaks. lisa: anarchist jurisdictions. tom: do a price check. jonathan: in the treasury market, 0.67%. i don't even know the come back. [laughter] tom keene is just talking about gigi hadeed having a child with zayn malik. tom: very good. seriously, the dollar moving in one direction today. stronger turkish lira right now

off the central bank uncertainties. dxy, 94.78. how many people were wrong on the weak dollar call? jonathan: so many, but they thought when things hit the fan x time around, the dollar wouldn't get stronger. the dollar is still getting that haven flow. i think where people have been right, and this is important from a portfolio construction point of view, treasuries haven't provided you that offset . they really haven't done much at all for several weeks tom: this is important -- for several weeks. tom: this is important. you see the barclays headline, that they will stay in new york in their offices. but they move one direction out the door, don't say? lisa: we could keep going with the one direction. there's been one direction of late in gold. did you like that? tom: very good. jon ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. thrilled you are with us.

now, i would suggest that this is the conversation of the day on fixed income. schwabones is with center for financial res earch. on has wonderful visibility the challenges investors are having and bonds. where did the 60-40 portfolio go? kathy: a lot of people have tried to abandon it in hopes of getting more income, more safety, more diversification? but i really don't think it has disappeared entirely. i think it just has to be more nuanced on the fixed income side. if you look at rolling correlations over the last six months or five years, you are still getting diversification from treasuries and higher quality bonds. it is just the upside is much more limited and the magnitude of those changes is much smaller. elasticity? the what could be the man who'd of

that price down -- the magnitude of that price down? kathy: if i look at the 10 year treasury and we get a move up in yields in the next year, i would say maybe 95 basis points to 1%. i don't think we get more than that on the upside. on the downside, you might get down to about 45 basis points or , i suppose, and a real negative scenario. it isn't the kind of move you use to see on a big down day and treasuries. you're not seeing that now. it is a much more limited move. jonathan: yields higher in the last 24 hours by a basis point, with a 2%, 3% move in the equity market. so many people have been queuing off of what is happening with real yields. can you unpack that for us? kathy: the fed is holding, rates very steady between their zero policy, their forward guidance

that is going to stay there for a long time. what we have seen is inflation expectations come up, so the real yield has come down to about -1% on the 10 year treasury. that gives you very limited choices in terms of where you invest your money in the fixed income market, but it does work for the fed because it makes the hurdle rate for investments very low. it encourages people to borrow, spend, and invest. that is what people are really trying to get the economy to do. jonathan: i am just wondering, i am trying to work out where inflation excitations are going to turn, and whether we could actually see real yields get less negative because inflation expectations come in, given what we are seeing worldwide at the moment. any thoughts on that and how things are developing? kathy: my biggest fear in the u.s., and now it extends to europe because of another round of outbreaks of the coronavirus, my biggest concern is that we don't get fiscal stimulus, the

economy slows down again. worst case scenario is a double-dip recession. particularly if we start to see a resurgence in virus cases here as well, i think we are walking a fine line right now. our base case is still for continued improvement in the economy, but without the fiscal stimulus, if we were to see more virus cases, we could double dip into recession in the next six months or so. lisa: what is the haven in that scenario if there isn't that much lower the 10 year yields can go. it used to be investment grade credit, and yet we have seen a little bit of underperformance there. kathy: i still think it is treasuries. keep in mind, i guess in a very negative scenario, nominal yields can go negative at the long end. it would probably force the fed to take much more aggressive action, but it is not without

precedent. lisa: what about with riskier credit? we have seen pretty big outflows from high yield bond fund's of late. is this the beginning of a larger trend? kathy: i think the market needs some correction in high-yield. it has gotten very frothy. i don't think we are going to see investors abandon it because you do get positive carry. you're going to get a yield that is 5%, 6% in high-yield. so i think you will see people come back in, barring of the recession. but spreads are very tight. again, the lowest of the low started to do well. tom: you mentioned a couple questions ago this idea of what the fed wants, which is completely removed from the coupon given duration that the individual investor wants. we spoke with richard clarida yesterday, a complete class act. great.

does he or the people around him, do they care about financial repression? kathy: i would say no. they look at the policy of the fed as being better for the greater good, and that is not going to change their policy. they think that savers and investors, although we hear a lot of complaint about low interest rates, savers and investors are benefiting from the rising risk assets, and their focus is really on unemployment. tom: i think this is an absolutely fundamental condition. we talk all of this theoretical mumbo-jumbo while retirees and others are getting absolute crushed well over a decade. jonathan: this is really important, that these interest rates have been low for a long time, not just in the united states, but also in europe. the lower they have gone in places like japan, they have never gone back up again. do you worry about the same thing happening in america? kathy: yeah, one of the biggest

fears we have is something like japanification, where we get stuck in a deflationary or very low inflationary environment, and there is not much more monetary policy can do. it is not our base case in area. we are actually starting to see the economy do a little bit better. i am relatively optimistic we can get the virus under control and it will continue to recover, but it is a worst-case scenario and you can't rule it out. there is a probability there, may be a low probability, but it exists. jonathan: i can tell i am going to have a long morning with tom keene this morning, and you could make it a whole lot better if you turned around and just played a little tune on that piano for us. [laughter] the microphone is going to work. if you could just please, it would but my day. tom: i can see over on the left, on bloomberg radio, her beautiful piano, and you can see

she's got her one direction book. lisa: i can see the wheel turning in her head, saying i will never do this show again. jonathan: this is going to work. the piano is read by the microphone. play: next time i will clair de lune for lisa. jonathan: for lisa, not for jon. [laughter] tom: i love what nickel back did with "clair de lune." jonathan: that describes our relationship with every guest that comes on this program. [laughter] i will do it for lisa, but not for you guys. kathy jones, thank you. fantastic. i was actually doing that interview trying to work out the baby name of gg hadeed, and couldn't find it. tom: for those of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television, the three of us are such nerds, we have no idea what we are talking about. [laughter] scarlet fu is like a magnet for

this. she knows who their maid of honors were, the best man, the whole thing. lisa: are you going to sing for us, tom? jonathan: tom is going to sing later. a headline just crossed the bloomberg. i don't know how we go from this to new issues in the bond market. new bond sales reaching $1.4 trillion, a new annual record in europe. the high-yield side in the united states also hitting a record in the last 24 hours as well. same in ig. just records apply through this year -- just records apply through this year. lisa: initially it was refinancing, building a bridge to somewhere, perhaps. now it is increasingly building a bridge to nowhere, and this fear the spee -- this fear that people have. solution,int will be will the cure be worse than the disease? tom: when did you clear the markets? i talked to geithner her about

this a million years ago. how do you clear markets in a system truly priced artificially? jonathan: with a price insensitive buyer in the market and a big way, i agree with you. really difficult. price action this morning shaping up as follows, down 0.1%. down about three points after coming really close to correction territory. i just wonder what is the bigger headline, coming close to correction territory or erasing 2020?ins for psychologically, what does that mean for the market? yields in on the tenure not even a basis point. the only new supply we care about are not people's babies, but in the bond market. you like that? there's some humor for you on "bloomberg surveillance." lisa: nailed it. jonathan: i will stick to the day job. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro.

heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv -- tom: at least for now. [laughter] jonathan: we've lost about half the audience in the last 10 minutes. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. britain's finance minister has laid out his plan to rescue millions of jobs and businesses from a winter crisis as the coronavirus pandemic again threatens to derail the nation's economy. chancellor of the exchequer rishi sunak announced a new job support measure to subsidize wages of people working part-time. the plane would also extend loans to businesses hit by coronavirus restrictions. he painted a bleak picture, saying, "i cannot save every business. i cannot save every job." china preparing to ease its restrictions on foreigners entering the country following a month-long blanket suspension covering most visitors. people entering the country must undergo two weeks of quarantine. china reported seven new

coronavirus cases today, all of them imported. it has been 79 days since the country reported a domestic case. cabinet voted to close all nonessential businesses. political demonstrations will be limited to open spaces and no more than 20 people. the measures are set to go into effect on friday ahead of yom kippur. young people are choosing to attend college in the united states -- less young people are choosing to attend college in the united states. undergraduate enrollment dropped 2.5% for the current academic year. that is the steepest decline amongst international students, where enrollment dropped 11%. even the most sought-after colleges are feeling the impact. harvard university's undergraduate enrollment fell

almost 20% from a year ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> these are radical interventions the u.k. labor market, policies we have never tried in this country before.

together with the jobs retention program, the kickstart scheme for young people, tens of billions of pounds, new investment in trading and apprenticeship, we are protecting millions of jobs and businesses. jonathan: the british chancellor of the exchequer rishi sunak outlining his plan for the winter and the fiscal support this government is planning to offer. good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this thursday morning. equity futures shaping up as follows after coming really close to correction territory on the s&p 500, and a fine line between positive and negative on the s&p your today for 2020. we are down five points on the s&p 500. $1.1637.ar, this is about things breaking down in europe. in the bond market, yields 0.67% on the u.s. ten-year. keep going back to it.

have done for the last several weeks. in the treasury market, nothing is happening. we keep coming back to it. many people have flagged it. that is how things are playing out in the here and now. disappointedulus right now, you wonder where that will come in an election. there's been a huge churn in the polling, and there is analysis that kevin alluded to, there's a huge uncertainty about how this pandemic affect everything in the economy, including our politics. jonathan: including fiscal policy. that is the big question for me. back several months with bob prince of bridgewater, he talked about the length of the episode, the pandemic with a very long two, and the band-aid of three months fiscal policy makers would apply to it. the willingness of policymakers to continue to offset income

diminished greatly. in the united kingdom, the approach is shifting. what is and what is not a viable job? that is going to be the discussion. what is a permanent shift in an economy, and what is temporary because of the pandemic? the policymakers are not waiting around. they are answering that question already. but what is different, is the same across this pandemic world is the sox to service sucks to-- the service industry. amobi of us is tuna cfra. how bad is it kathy: tuna -- how bad is it? the hospitality has been

in the eye of the storm. this is something that no one could foresee. are as we speak, they pointing to still very difficult challenges on the potential road to recovery, that we see several hotels going about in trying to navigate this unprecedented disruption. of everything else, i think there could be those companies that consolidate their market share gains and emerge, relatively speaking, winners, versus others that could be more severely impacted. lisa: emerge, this is the question. when are they going to emerge? do they have enough cash to wait until they emerge? and what will be the drawback to all of this debt that they have incurred? tuna: that is a great question. at this point, we think that emerging from this happens for the most part no earlier than

the second half of next year, even on the assumption that we are going to have some vaccine relatively speaking in the next six to nine months. i think it takes another at least six to 12 months for the industry to begin to get any semblance of a recovery. the good news is a lot of the hotels have already taken steps to mitigate the liquidity pressures that we are seeing across the industry, so the biggest names like hilton and hyatt arewyndham and all very solid in terms of their liquidity position, raising additional debt, cutting dividends and share buybacks. we really have no major liquidity restraints. the ones getting squeezed are the relatively smaller mom-and-pop operators, less known franchises, where we see the paycheck protection program having relatively limited impact.

so really, this is going to be interesting to see how it all shakes out. lisa: so hilton and marriott may emerge the winners at the end of this pandemic. there is a question about how much they are going to have to shrink their footprint in order to remain profitable. how much of their hotel portfolio do you expect them to contract at a time of growing commercial real estate angst? tuna: coming into this pandemic, i think the supply growth has been relatively modest, which has been accommodated by the pent-up demand, so the supply-demand balance was relatively rational. what has happened as a result is that most of the major chains have pulled back on their develop meant plans, so supply is going to be officially constrained, but next year we do believe that especially in the second half, some pent-up demand is going to try to restore that there-demand balance, and may not be in another two years before we see that play out.

so expect that there is going to be relatively little to moderate supply growth at this time until chains become comfortable investing again and try to expand their footprint. tom: what does the industry get from the government? we understand that the airlines had substantial aid. the airlines are asking for more directed aid as well. what do hotels and hospitality do? are they just in it by themselves? tuna:tuna: hotels and hospitality got nowhere near the aid that airlines got, and perhaps for a variety of reasons. i think when you think about the hotel industry, it is much more fragmented. most of the big chains, the names we just talked about, are actually mostly franchised. you have these franchisees that really had to apply on their own for the aid, and what we are hearing is that it so far has a

trickle-down effect, and not as much of the pervasive impact he would like to see. think it mayard, i very well be, as lisa alluded to earlier, you will see a lot of rationalization for these larger chains, where the franchises might not be able to provide the kind of liquidity needed to ofure a prolonged period disruption. so all fingers crossed trying to see how this shapes out. jonathan: great to catch up today. thanks for giving us your time this morning. analyst.i there, cfra 95 minute away from the opening bell. strategists and officials did we hear saying they want more fiscal stimulus? a, messner,rid rosen. trying to make up for bullard, i

guess. tom: i don't understand how we get there, frankly. jonathan: coming up next, goldman chief equity strategist david coston. -- david kostin. live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ♪ so you're a small business,

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yup, the best really did get better. magnificent. xfinity x1 just got even better, with peacock premium included at no additional cost. no strings attached. >> if the customers are broke, and until and unless congress acts, they will be broke. >> people need to be aware they're are running into some thresholds for growth. >> we are going into this weakness with 70 people still unemployed. >> monetary policy will do its part. it is not the primary driver. >> additional fiscal support will likely be needed. >> unfortunately, the politics are standing in the way of that right now. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. after our discussion yesterday with richard