>> worst case scenario, there is a double-dip recession. it is not our base case, but it is the worst case an area. >> the treasury market is overbought if you consider the projected growth rate. >> all central banks can do is print money in the end. >> we know there are millions unemployed, but the unemployment cracks are everywhere. >> this is "bloomberg keene,lance" with tom jon ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: the quote of the week for

sure, "the data is torturing us." it's a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg division. jon ferro preparing for arsenal/liverpool monday. jim paulsen here on the equity markets. lisa is focused on 3:00 p.m. monday afternoon. jonathan: i was just shocked about how kind you were being to me at the top of the hour. let's get to the turnaround in this equity market. a bounce off the low. in europe, still down hard on the equity benchmark in front ridge, germany -- in frankfurt, germany. the banks in europe are down for a seventh straight session. it is a tough ride for the financials when the outlook to the economy is not looking good, and the outlook for interest rates is just low for a long even longer, given what we have seen in the last couple of weeks.

tom: it's got to be a major theme into q4. that goes to the energy here on new york wall street, and how banks and global wall street may be will right size into the slower economy. lisa: and how do you write size at this point, given the cuts that have already happened? you have more working from home. the sort of conundrum here this week is there has been a shift in mood. it is different than the tech selloff. this is a deepening of the angst without another fiscal package from washington, d.c. about whether these overleveraged companies can sustain their growth. you saw that start to take hold and credit come with riskier debt seeing a bit of a selloff, and the biggest weekly outflow going back since the peak of the angst in march. tom: we are so lame here, and i've got to go to your "real yield" this friday and into the

weekend, i have to go out four decimal points on yield to say to that yields have come in this morning. jonathan: treasuries haven't done much. is that the story? couldn't agree with you more. total snoozer. talked about it through the week. yield, they-year come in as well. dow futures, -109. , bring that to your attention. jonathan: why would you do that? you like that price-weighted benchmark of your childhood? tom: it is the childhood of america. we used the dow as a benchmark in our day-to-day life. even the president of the united states does that. jonathan: i'm aware. tom: of course, in the politics of it, we are looking for the debate on tuesday. our coverage at 8:30, kevin

cirilli and david westin leaving that coverage. this is really the kick off discussion about, you know what? what do you do into q4? we all adapt and adjust to this pandemic. paulsen has a huge advantage. he is not in the three zip codes of the city, in minnesota with the little group -- with the loose hold group. ld group.th the leutho how have you changed your opinion of this economy? jim: you knew they were going to get correction at some point, and generally, corrections do their job. they scare you a lot. i agree, this could have further to go. i really don't know. but it wouldn't surprise me if some point.5% at

it doesn't have to come up but it certainly could. i guess for me, i think there's quite a bit of fundamental economic momentum here coming into this, and i think it is likely to continue to carry into the fourth quarter and beyond. i think that is going to eventually turn this correction a little bit. we are growing north of 20% in the third quarter, may be the fastest quarterly growth rate ever. amongstions right now private sector economists for the fourth quarter are 5%, which is really strong. i think it might be even stronger than that, if you look at housing yesterday. look at the bloomberg consumer comfort index that came out yesterday. it is interesting to me. bloomberg consumer comfort is in the upper quartile of its history right now. tom: jim is so good to bring

this up as well. you know what? i don't see up 30% on the streets of new york. do you see it on the streets of london? jonathan: not really, but you go from shut down to reopening, it is a mechanical improvement. it is just there. it is basic math. i just wonder, what are you seeing that is mechanical and a bounce back from selloff to reopening, and what is sustainable momentum? where are you expecting the momentum to come from? jim: i totally agree, there's a big chunk of this doubts we had that is just turning the switch off and back on. but i do think that turning the switch back on creates its own momentum. fear when wemore had the switch off among consumers, among businesses, and that fear caused them to pull spending even more and cut costs even harder. that fear is less now, in part

because we allowed some things to come back on. so there is greater confidence. we still have an 18% savings rate among the household sector. that downthey bring to 12% or something over the next few quarters or something like that. if they do that, that would equate to dramatic growth in personal consumption expenditures. all you really need to do that is just to generate some confidence. the other thing i would like to point out is we have already dumped a lot of stimulus on this thing, and most of that really hasn't started to help get because it takes about a year historically before it starts to really show benefits in the economy. but as we go into the fourth quarter and into the first quarter, that when your leg is going to be bad, and i think that will start to improve economic conditions. look at the impact that a lower

mortgage rate has had on housing activity and auto sales in this country. imagine what the impact of 25% money growth with 15% to 20% fiscal spending, which i don't even think showed up yet, might have starting in the fourth, first and second quarter of the coming year. lisa: perhaps the phrase of the week is "a healthy correction." pretty much every note i've read has something around a healthy correction in it, yours included. you say it won't be the last, and reiterate the idea that we are in this bull market. you do say we our refreshing valuations we -- we are refreshing valuations. what does that mean? [laughter] jim: i think maybe we have to have a deeper correction because even myself, i am just not scared enough yet. sayinguys like me will healthy correction by the time

actually is getting close. i kind of concur with that. refreshing by valuations is we are bringing down the price of the market at the same time we are starting to bring backup earnings. earnings estimates are climbing nearly everywhere, across all sectors, and right now you've roughly, and you've got 146 one year forward earnings estimates on the street right now. that puts you back down around 21, 22 times or something. it was a lot higher not that long ago. so we are doing some damage to valuations. further, iong suspect those arguments are going to come up a little more, so we might have to look cheaper by the end of this year even if

it goes higher in the interim. jonathan: jim, great to hear from you. of lucille -- jim aulsen of little weeden -- of loose hold weeden -- of leuthold weeden. tom: in jim's elegant language, it is supposed to happen. jonathan: we know. tom: in the textbooks, it is normal. jonathan: and what happens whenever we get one? the mood swings start to kick in. to keep anht eye on this. even with the fed doing and saying what the fed has been doing and saying, i think that is interesting for high yields to be breaking out. the level is not drastic, but a

40 basis point move widening over a week, i think that gets your attention. jonathan: put that into english, please. even i am lost on that. what does that mean, higher yields? lisa: yes. what it means is that investors are saying that in order to take the risk of investing in lending to this company, we are going to demand a higher premium based on the rate of treasuries in order to be rewarded and compensated for taking that risk. does that clear it up? jonathan: you know he already knows it. tom: she mailed that. -- she mailed that. lisa: there you go, so it's worth it. jonathan: i am just going to get to the price action. every time i get uncomfortable on this show, we get to the markets. [laughter] tom: what a marriage. jonathan: tom and i were married, that would be it. every dinner. tom: we are at home on the weekend. time for a market check. lisa: thanks giving discussion.

[laughter] 500 futures in 11. euro-dollar, $1.1636. you know what you are listening and watching. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ritika: london has been placed on the u.k.'s list as an area of high concern, and covid cases continue to soar. a group is calling on londoners to abide by the rules set out by prime minister boris johnson earlier this week. those included working from home where possible and keeping to the rule of six. leaders across europe are grappling with how to bring the coronavirus back under control. launched ace have murder investigation after a police officer was shot and killed inside a police station today. the incident happened in

croydon, south of the city. police say v 23-year-old suspect then turned the gun on himself. he is in critical condition. it is rare for police officers and the u.k. to be shot and killed, which has strict firearm laws there. the last london police officer killed in the line of duty was a constable stabbed to death in march 2017 during an attack outside parliament. paris police have arrested one person after a knife attack today that left four people wounded. it happened near the former offices of satirical new paper -- satirical newspaper " charlie hebdo," where islamic extremists killed 12 people in 2015. police aren't sure whether today's attack is related. supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg today becomes the first woman in american history to lie in state in the u.s. capital. she will be the first jewish

american to lie in state, and just the second supreme court justice. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> we are not going to make it unless there is a broader reopening of the economy, unless we see more fiscal stimulus.

the end of that could look a lot more pronounced if we don't get more support. jonathan: the wonderful emily investments. it has dominated the debate much of this week, stateside and in europe. what happens on the fiscal side down in ec in the next several months -- in d.c. down in the next several months? alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. one hour and 12 minutes from the opening bell in new york this friday morning, already a nosing one -- already a noisy one. we are off by 12 points on. the s&p in the fx market -- on the s&p. euro-dollarrket, $1.1635. u.s. treasury not doing a lot, not participating in the volatility you see in the equity market. tom: the improvement in the real

yield as well. we always mention the real yield on fridays, but jon, moving from a -1.02%, now out a full 10 basis points, what does that mean? jonathan: a subtle shift in inflation expectations lower, and that is something we've got to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. going to be really interesting to see how the market more broadly positions around that story. if inflation expectations come in and real yields become less negative, how do we price off of that and things like growth stocks? tom: we are going to do it in 15 minutes with our interview of the day on economics. right now on our politics, it is good to go abroad to get a different view. julie norman is at the university college london, with wonderful credit on the lavant, but she joins us now on the

battle worry al in washington. -- the battle royale in washington. the twothis weekend, as candidates adapt and adjust to a debate four days away. right, so there is obviously a lot that is going to be going on this weekend. we expect tomorrow that trump will announce the next supreme court nominee, and that will set off a quite partisan battle in washington moving into the week of the debate, was really both parties trying to double down a lot of the key issues that will resonate for their voters. a lot of that coming on the backdrop of trump's recent comments this week about a potential non-peaceful transfer of power after the election. all of that is going to be on the table going into the debate. tom: forget about changing somebody's vote, just going after the undecideds versus getting the turn out of your base. weigh that balance right now.

julie: this is going to be a challenge for both parties. right now, trump continuously has had a very strong following of his base, but trying to get other people beyond that into his coalition has been a challenge. but again, the supreme court nomination might open up a possibility there. there are a lot of conservatives, moderates who maybe don't like trump personally, but are still committed to conservative policies and values, so this will bring in some of those undecided voters. on the democratic side, a bit more complicated for biden, really trying to straddle a very wide range of opinions within his own party, from very strong progressives to very strong moderates, and users on both sides of the spectrum who maybe are not enthusiastic about biden. lisa: we are focused on the presidential aspect of the election. however, a lot of people are

saying possibly the more consequent election is for the senate. where are we in terms of a blue wave or a blue sweep come november? lisa: that certainly -- julie: that certainly is where a lot of the emphasis will be as we get closer to november. a number of key seats are up for grabs. democrats are really trying to emphasize this point again with the supreme court nomination to suggest that if they retook the senate, they would be open to pushing for some fairly progressive policies such as increasing the number of justices on the court, implement hang term limitations, or going over other policies that democrats have been pushing for more in the progressive wing, such as ending the filibuster. so democrats are really pushing hard to take back the senate, and if so, will they be able to really leverage that into

different kinds of political power. lisa: there's also question with the fiscal debate. how much would the democrats passed in terms of fiscal stimulus once the pandemic is over, versus the republicans? is there really that much daylight between the two plans, or is what we are seeing right now political silly season, and there is more convergence between republicans and democrats on the fiscal support side then there may seem? julie: i think we are going to be moving towards more convergence. of course, there's been a stalemate since august with the last meaningful negotiations, but i think after this week's comments we heard from jerome powell and other federal reserve officials to congress, really underscoring the need for fiscal stimulus, we do see both parties coming back to the table now, pelosi being open to maybe massaging some of her initial numbers just to get some kind of deal moving forward. that is necessary for the economy, and those parties also realize it is necessary for the election as well for some of the

key seats up for grabs. tom: tell us about the campuses. in the united states, we have a struggle here. the news today is pac-10 football will start to play again. the campuses here are in absolute mess. is it the same thing in the urban united kingdom? julie: that is a good question. we are actually just going back to our classes next week, so students are just coming back right now. i think the u.k. is dealing with a lot of the same questions as the u.s. right now, with how much face to face to have, how big of groups to allow students together in. campus,oming back to and everyone is just trying to do their best to make it the best year possible for them. tom: that was great. fabulous. jonathan: julie, thank you. julie norman of university college london. tom: that was a good question

because the question came from you. jonathan: it did. ucl just below houston square. i'm sure you've been there a few times. tom: i've been by. lisa: i am waiting for the market check. i waiting for you guys to devolve into market check. jonathan: don't worry about that. tom: seriously, i never look at debates. this debate tuesday night is going to be something. jonathan: that is tom's out. it is always this debate. tom: it's a big deal. lisa: it is a big deal. tom: top me some slack -- cut me some slack. jonathan: one hour, five minutes away from the opening bell. tom: that is called radio silence, what we just had. [laughter] jonathan: i did it deliberately. tom: did you? jonathan: there's your equity inket, off by 0.4%, one hour

five minutes away from the opening bell. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. that will never happen again. [laughter] yes, sir. i'm sorry. jonathan: let me tell you, that call is much longer. ♪ l is much longer. ♪ so you're a small business,

or a big one.

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jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market shaping up as follows. the bounce off the low on the s&p 500, still down 11 points on the s&p. things get better in the last hour, down just a third of 1%. down a third.1631, of 1%. evenach of 1.17 and maybe 1.16 the way things are going. in the bond market, yields come in a single basis point on the 10 year, .65%. crude hanging out around $40 a barrel. tom: we will do the data check through all of this friday. it started boring and became not boring two hours ago.

futures -11. this is an important interview for global wall street and those of you not attached wall street, it is of note. jan hatzius at goldman sachs focusing on the american consumer. he has done that to great acclaim ahead of global economics with great forecasting skill, always very cautious about the dream of higher interest rates, the dream of a greater gross domestic project. jan hatzius joins us this morning. thank you for joining bloomberg surveillance. you shook the world with the markdown yesterday on gdp. if we get stimulus from president biden or a second term president trump january or february, how will you adjust? jan: good to be with you. you are being way too kind. in terms of the outlook, we did take down the fourth quarter

because of the reduced likelihood and low likelihood of a fiscal deal. we were at 6% quarter on quarter annualized, but now 3% quarter on quarter. a few weeks ago we had considered a larger downward revision in the event of note deal between democrats and republicans. we ended up with a more moderate downward revision in light of the fact that the end of the $600 per week payment unemployed workers at the end of july does not seem to have had as large an impact on spending as we had thought. things like the consumer is still holding up reasonably well . and we haveto 2021 another fiscal easing under a president biden with a senate majority, or under president

trump, then we would upgrade our numbers because we are not building in a significant amount of stimulus from here. we think there are other reasons the economy may do pretty well in 2021, related to covid developments and potentially a vaccine, but we're are not building toward a stimulus. tom: your initial acclaim came from mortgage equity withdraw and looking at the behavior of consumers in the housing boom of 2004 to 2005 and 2006 as well. what is the behavior of consumers you and goldman sachs see? change onain consumers is the development of the pandemic. that is the reason why the economy turns down so sharply in march and april. to the extent we can unwind these losses, i think it will reflect improvements in our

ability to cope with the disease to reduce infection risk and ultimately come up with a vaccine. that is at the top of the list for me. of course in, plays an important role. upernment programs to shore income during the worst part of the pandemic were extremely helpful. for me, the most amazing statistic of the entire period has been the fact that the second quarter saw the biggest , butne ever in real gdp also the biggest increase in real household disposable income. arounds key in turning the downturn of march and april in subsequent months. of course this story is not over, and right now we have seen a setback, and what happens to fiscal policy as we going to 2021 will be important. jonathan: that is the issue. bob prince at bridgewater has

talked about the duration mismatch. this pandemic will go on a lot longer than the three month mandate fiscal authorities keep applying. we managed to offset the income shock of six months ago. do you think the nature of the slowdown changes if the appetite to acquire another fiscal band-aid is not there? jan: i do. i think there is a strong case for keeping policy on the monetary side and the fiscal side very accommodative. i am on the more optimistic side of the debate as far as the economic outlook is concerned these days, and i do think we are making significant headway. at the same time, we are clearly far away from full employment. the pandemic is not behind us, and the economy still needs a lot of support. on the monetary side, i am comforted by a global central banks willingness to continue to

provide support. i think there is a strong consensus that the economy is still needed, but on the fiscal side it is a political decision, especially in a hyper politicized environment as what we have currently, given the impending election, it is much easier to see a setback and we have to see the setback. it would be very helpful if we could get another round of support. jonathan: what is interesting about your call is you cut growth for the end of this year, you boost growth for q4 in the back end of 2021. there are some economists who do not believe -- who believe if we do not grow quickly enough now, the future has to come down as well. what is it that you see that even if growth -- it can pick up in the long term? jan: if you are restoring less activity in some of the sectors

that have been hardest hit, the consumer services sector, sectors like transportation and restaurants and areas like that, that does give you more upside potential for down the road. eventually the sectors are going to normalize, especially in an environment where the pandemic -- that is because of vaccine is available and broadly distributed by the middle of next year. it is natural to offset a part of any near-term changes in your forecast with changes in the opposite direction. a few quarters down the road. in this case, that strikes us as the most likely outcome, although of course there is a lot of uncertainty about what happens further down the road. i think also the idea that if you have a larger hit in the near term, that that can way on your ability to restore activity

much further down the road because of the scouring effect. there is something to that. that operates on a longer horizon. lisa: let's build on this. when you talk about the potential for faster growth in 2021, even as we see slower growth now, that flies in the face of market expectations for inflation. one market aspect of this week's action has been a steady drip lower in five to 10 year inflation expectations. do you think the market is wrong and the fed is right in thinking they can get 2% inflation near-term? jan: the fed does not have 2% inflation for the next couple of years. it still takes a while. i would agree with that. it will be multi percent for core pce inflation over the next several years. right now we are at 1.2% for

core pce inflation, and part of the gap between 1.2% and 2% is related to more temporary factors. intortions or disruptions the most covid affected sectors. i think that will unwind over the next year. that is going to push inflation higher. rangeto the 1.5% to 1.75% , still below where you would want to be and what will be needed to even think about hiking rates. i do not think he will be quite as low as where we are now. as far as markets are concerned, inflation markets in particular, 10 year ppi inflation expectations or breakeven inflation rates are 1.6%. that does strike me as low. it moves lower. stronglygreeing more with market pricing on these breakeven rates that i did a

couple of weeks ago when it was set higher. lisa: this is crucial. this is one of the most heated debates on wall street. blackrock speaking to the bait -- to the debate john and tom were having earlier in the weakening of supply chains and how that could inflation in-flight -- how that could increase inflation more than markets are expecting. --how does that jan: i think it is a factor. i think it is going to be potentially a factor for the good sector of the economy, but i also would say the service sector is significantly more 70% tont than calls for be a good sector only accounts for 30% of the basket, and also the potential impact of changes in the supply chains will be

spread over a period of time. i do not think it is something that will have a huge impact in the very short term. what does have a bigger effect in the short term is these distortions or disruptions that we are seeing in covid affected sectors, which are probably going to unwind more quickly. i think both of these factors are probably reasons to expect higher inflation, but i think the disruptions are more important. jonathan: when did you last wear a tie? jan: march. i have not worn a tie since march. i am now wearing a jacket. hatzius of goldman sachs. i do not want to think of this, the new trend on wall street of no ties. tom: i like the trend. i have a lot of people lobbying. jonathan: i am into the stubble. lisa: look at this.

it is not a skinny tie, it is a slim tie. jonathan: this is a slim tie. lisa: it does not look right. put it back on. tom? we are doing that again. jonathan: i think this might work. lisa: taking ties off on radio. jonathan: i love tom without the bow tie. tom on the weekend still has the bowtie. i do not. let's check those markets. lisa: let's do the markets. jonathan: equities bounceback on the s&p. -.4%. this is bloomberg. with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. china is hoping to produce more than one billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine. that follows an aggressive government support program for

the production of new factories. china has 11 vaccine candidates in human trials. four of them are in the third and final trials. putinn president vladimir is calling for an agreement with united states to promise not to engage in cyber meddling in each other's elections and internal affairs. u.s. officials say the kremlin has already tried to interfere in november's presidential election. bloomberg has learned russian officials are growing increasingly worried about the prospect of a joe biden presidency and what that would mean for sensitive issues, including nuclear arms. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

is theproblem right now lagged effects on the economy are still playing out. we do not have to torture the data, the data is torturing us.

jonathan: quote of the week from ethan harris, bank of america head of global economic research. we will continue the conversation with mohamed el-erian. i guarantee that man will be in a tie for that interview. i have to put my tie back on as well. i do not need a mirror to put my tie back on. jonathan: i need a mirror to get the length right. tom: the hipster will figure out the type. jon ferro with an important conversation with mohamed el-erian. right now we got a ton of emails on this, on gold and the dynamics. dennis gartman has been brilliant on gold. for michael mcglone at bloomberg intelligence, every day puts together real chart -- real insight with charts with three lines on it. michael mcglone, the gate correlation on gold missing is the blowout in our debt and the

dynamic of the blowout in the deficit as well. is that correlated with gold? michael: hello. i know you love my multiaccess charts. i have to control myself. the key thing people should remember about gold is compared to the big increase in u.s. debt to gdp, gold is basically unchanged. it is unchanged since 2007. to me gold is doing what it is supposed to do. it is keeping up with debt to gdp, but at some point it will accelerate. unless you expect debt to gdp to go down, gold has to appreciate. brenner,g back to how the distinction between the level of debt at growth of the debt. which is it that links to gold? mike: it is the level and the growth both. it is when the growth of debt picks up like it has this year. this year we are about 140% debt to gdp. last year we were about 110%.

the massive pickup is what happened in 2008. gold had its tip and then it catches up your it just made a new high, but give it more time. it should continue that rally. gold is a massive bull market that had a long period of disdain and underperformance, then compare that to the other side of the aisle. the stock market has been an extended bull market that has been around it is getting old. lisa: i love talking with you because you are one of the only people who will say have to control myself about the multiaccess charts. yet here we are. when we talk about gold we have to talk about real yields and how negative they are. a lot of people saying negative real yields are what was pushing a lot of people into gold. real yields have gotten less negative. how much of this is the real story behind the gold weakness? mike: that is the real story but i look at that with a grain of salt. real yields are reflected in the fact that cbi and most inflation

are lagging. they are catching up and they will go to zero. bond yields have been going to zero for a while. we started in japan and we had europe and now we have the u.s.. what it will take to end that, i do not know. the key inflection point i am worried about is the bear market in the stock market, which we have to have if history is a guide. we've not had that since 2009 where it goes down and stays down. i am worried. that is the next key thing i'm looking forward to. i do not see it for a while. lisa: if we see the bull market in gold continuing, the past matters, especially for people looking for a ballast to their 60/40 portfolios that appear antiquated with yields as low as they are. based on moves, gold has moved in tandem with equities. will that continue? mike: the s&p is unchanged and gold is unchanged and goes up 23%. bitcoin is up 50%.

it is how you look forward for the next five or 10 years, and i see with debt to gdp at all-time highs, the stock market of the highest level versus gdp ever, i've a sense will see flows going back. gold used to be a big portion of the portfolios in the 1970's and 1980's. it will probably go back that way with the normal cycles. tom: one final question. i have to go back to popper copper, lowes lately to australia and china. copper has been red zone, green zone. is copper tradable or is it trending? mike: it is trending. it has been a bear market, but i think we are close to an inflection point. copper has the highest correlation ever to the nasdaq, to the stock market. that is what matters. if the stock market goes down, popper will go down. despite the stock market correcting from the high, copper

is doing very well. i expect we are near the inflection point where looking forward it is the metals that are attractive to me because of demand, and a lot of it is decarbonization and energy means more demand for all the metals. silver, copper, cobalt, all of those. tom: michael mcglone, thank you very much. lisa, this is so important and goes within the gloom in the media and that. to me it is incredibly important there are glimmers of optimism out there across all of the asset classes. honestly i have seen less optimism than we did three months ago. tom: this week has been brutal. not: i think people are fully understanding the implications of no fiscal support in washington. as that becomes more of a reality, there's a huge divergence on how big of an effect that will have short-term and near-term. jan hatzius talking about how he

is upgrading his expectation for next year. that is not the consensus. tom: he is definitely more optimistic than others. kevin cirilli making very clear the stimulus is decidedly a moving target as the democrats figure out what to do in those house, whether those challenged democratic races can convince speaker pelosi to bring that number down. i thought the observation on high-yield giving way was important. the higher relative yield in the high-yield market. what to the issuance look like an investment grade and high-yield debt? lisa: unprecedented. it has been going bonkers. that is the technical term. tom: you nailed that. lisa: trying to nail it every day. we did see the high-yield bond issuance break a new record. my question is are they building a bridge to the other side or building a bridge to nowhere? you had steven mnuchin

testifying saying they do not need more debt, they need sustenance to get through the pandemic. they are putting on more debt, which will slow growth going forward. tom: a very busy weekend to get to q4. a historic debate on tuesday. before tuesday, a lengthy monday in-store. we start "bloomberg surveillance" early. look monday afternoon for lisa abramowicz at jack doyle's bar watching arsenal play liverpool. it is like monday night football except zone is great. you can take the kids. lisa: what you do since you are my enemy? do you sit there and hush quietly in the corner. tom: there are so many of our guests that are arsenal fans that i cannot be rude. i saved the rudeness for jon ferro. we thank you for listening to

bloomberg radio and watching bloomberg television. coming up, a lot of good conversations. look for mohamed el-erian with jonathan ferro. have a great weekend. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york and

london for audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. open"ountdown to the starts right now. equity futures bouncing off the lows and down just eight points. investors trying to handicap one thing. >> u.s. fiscal stimulus. >> fiscal stimulus. >> the odds of fiscal stimulus have gone down quite a bit. >> the window for that happening before the election is closing rapidly. >> it might not happen at all before the election. >> the fiscal packages basically did. >> appointing a new person to the supreme court. >> normally a supreme court vacancy would not be a market issue, but that will be really contentious. >> a lot of resentment between parties. >> before ginsberg's death the dialogue was disintegrating. >> making it even harder for republicans and democrats to get to a deal. >> >> now it is hard to visualize how that comes together.