haidi: welcome to daybreak australia. i am heidi strauss what me. >> i am shery ahn. tiktok awaits a court ruling on a potential ban while the white house let's export curbs the top to maker of the military type. china's rebound continues.

this trillion budget deficit -- the australian budget deficit -- turmoil withs in tensions in china and the virus lockdowns. shery: let's get a quick check of the market. we are seeing u.s. futures coming online a quarter percent higher at the moment. in the broader context of things, the s&p 500 goes down for the fourth consecutive week. on friday we did see some misfires and after the market closed we had news that stimulus count had resumed -- stimulus talks had resumed between speaker of the house nancy pelosi and steepener nguyen. w -- steve mnuchin.

4%.is down it did manage to stay above that $40 per barrel level but we do have concerns over the virus search. the dollar seeing its best week since april. haidi: we are seeing currencies in asia at this early part of the session holding pretty steady. we are seeing some downsides when it comes to trading already. isare looking like tech possibly following the lead in the korean and japanese markets. in asia, it is a muted first half of the week with no significant numbers out in the first couple of days. out ve the rbi decision chinese pmif

numbers. theontinue to get improvement of the virus story in new south wales with no new cases reported for the first time since the middle of this year. the aussie dollar holding pretty steady. get back to our top story. tiktokck is ticking on in the u.s.. we are hours away from president trump deadline for the ban to take effect around benign eastern time. -- around midnight eastern time. what is the latest and were there any developments over the weekend? >> there are a couple of deadlines today. at noon today, just before

midnight sunday eastern standard time, the ban from the trump administration which was extended by a week last week because of details emerging of that impending deal. they only gave another week until the ban would take place. it would take effect as of midnight standard time, eastern time. nichols had aday, request on the hearing for tiktok to stop the band. he did not give any indication according to those present which way he might decide but he did indicate that he would give a decision on whether to grant a beforenary injunction that deadline hit. for that and the d-day at 12:00. tiktok boyer has told carl nichols that the impending ban

was irrational because tiktok's parent bytedance is in negotiation with the trumpet ministration and other parties on a deal that is being forced by the trump administration. has saidney john hall that it would be no different than the government locking the roping offbook forum that town square. fromrrowed the words another town square, the we chat ban. it was granted paper limiter injunction using that tech -- granted a preliminary injunction , using that technology. shery: what can you tell us about smic? semiconductor manufacturing international, china's largest

chip company. it has been added to an export list. bitre hearing that it was a of a compromise reach within the trump administration on smic, on basically this new ruling export limitation from the commerce department, u.s. firms must now apply for a license to -- the commerce department in a letter dated september 25 said that smic and its subsidiaries risk ofan unacceptable diversions to military use. it has notid received any official note and in the statement says that it has no relationship with the chinese military and does not make products for any military end-users. the ruling indicated that there could be further action on smic,

perhaps even in addition to that entity list. >> china ask about economic rebound is continuing with industrial profits growing for the fourth straight month. profits year to date are still 4% lower than 12 months ago. the statistics bureau said the rise is due to a sustained recovery in manufacturing demand as well as lower business cost. budgettrillion above -- deficit is set to widen. next -- efforts are being mitigated. it will be the equivalent of 140 billion u.s. dollars in the 12 months through june of next year. economy has been amid turmoil due to slowing from the coronavirus lockdown.

a travel bubble around new zealand could open by the year end as infection rates in both countries remain low. new south wales reported no new infections in the last one he four hours. hours.he last 24 deaths are about the top one million. as president trump is seen pushing the supreme court further to the right with his choice of amy coney barrett to succeed ruth bader ginsburg, her confirmation in the senate would make it a 6-3 conservative split. republicans say they should drive the confirmation through before the election and democrats say that it should wait until after november. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪ trump's supreme

court pick help his campaign? on usk at the latest virus tighs tening. this is bloomberg. ♪

choicepresident trump's of the appeals judge amy coney barrett would move the supreme court further to the right if she is confirmed. david westin, great to have you on. we know that she would be the most conservative the mill justice. what implications what her appointment have for generations of americans and the election? >> those are two important questions. it is hard to predict, a lot of people, when they get to the -- when they get to the supreme court are different from what

people thought. i think she will go in a conservative direction. she will be more conservative than we have seen from a woman. it will be a radical shift from ruth bader ginsburg. in individual cases, it is harder to say. in the eleciton, it makes more sense for the senate races than for the president. haidi: president trump speaking at the top of the hour commenting on the appointment and saying he did not discuss the issue of the election with amy coney barrett, but he is sure that his supreme court nominee will be watching the ballot situation. explosive in on this new york times story about his taxes. saying he paid just $700 in taxes per year. didn't pay taxes for 10 to 15 years before he was president. president trump saying this is fake news. is this likely to plague him for the rest of the campaign in a week that brings up the third presidential debate?

>> in a normal election but we don't have normal elections in the united states. in a normal election the fact that the man has not paid income in his firsaid $750 t year woudl be bad. he said that it's because he is so terribly smart. i think it raises questions about his business acumen. run as a billionaire and says he is so astute. according to this new york times report, where they went over two decades of his tax returns, it appears he is losing a lot of money and he has a big dispute with the irs. if he loses that audit battle he could have a $100 million tax bill coming due. to there looking ahead presidential debate on tuesday what should we be expecting at how high are the stakes? >> president trump has really gone out of his way to say that

the former vice president joe biden isn't up to it, he is on sleepy, maybe he is on drugs and things like that. he may have made a mistake by lowering expectations so that if joe biden does a decent job it will be a success. there has been a perpetual deficit in the polling that president trump has had. behind eight to 10 points. he has to win the debate, he has to change minds and if joe biden keeps going, he will be fine. changing minds is harder, particularly when there are relatively few undecideds. haidi: great to have you with us on bloomberg. big week ahead for those two candidates. is thehe u.s. election new --we will get his outlook next. this is bloomberg. ♪

trade south korea minister says that the world must be revitalized and reformed to stay relevant. he is pitching to do just that. yu is one of three women and two men running for the role of director general. the wto is expected to announce its new leader by november 7. fta's bilateral agreements have started to see the normal gaps with a new voice. as director general i would work with members to translate these into later trading systems so we could also upgrade

the lateral trading. andbeing revitalized negotiating. members to resort to lateral is him. restrictions -- is it only fair to expect not only south korea but other members to readjust their supply chain away from china? on.his issue is still going itht now i have to see how .s implemented regard to thet in ,ational security issues

security-related exports and technology controls. the wto is also involved with some trade related issues. this issue needs to be further wto because the there are emerging issues in these years. the wto has never had a female leader in its two decades of existence. how important is female anpresentation in international organization like the wto? >> the merits and capabilities of a person should be decided.

now you have a very qualified female candidate running for the position. forll say it is high time the wto to be led by a qualified and capable woman. having a female at the top of the wto could help foster inclusive, diverse and resilient culture. betteruld help to address and promote issues like female economic empowerment, which could contribute to sustainable and inclusive environments. kamil you were the first trade minister in south korea. tell us about your experiences and challenges that you face rising the ranks in a male-dominated society. it must some might say that might be easier for a woman to prove themselves because it is

others,be recognized by but i will say that sometimes i have been judged against a harder criteria and worked to prove myself against the bias of society. struggling. between workalance and family. i can better understand the importance of bolstering inclusive and divulge -- diverse culture so that any manager can put potential into the organization.

our next guest says that the vote is the biggest near-term risk for investors particularly if the results are challenged. andy cap her us now. that thehowing november vic's contract topping the f tober one around a potential extended election and we just heard from president trump that he will be counting the ballots forever after november 3. what is the risk of having a contested election? risk tois the biggest the election . the potential outcomes are well known and well telegraphed? there not likely to be a seachange. the biggest one is a democratic sweep potentially changing tax rates for corporate income. outside of that, the big risk is the uncertainty tied to a challenged election and the

stakes for that get so much higher as a result of the supreme court. >> where is the dollar going and how will that affect the equity markets given that the anticipation is that it will be on the downtrend because of the policy measures. the past few weeks demonstrates that the dollar is the safety asset. happened overas the past 12 months has changed that status for the dollar. i think that the dollar will find a bid as long as there is turbulence, and as long as there is a high degree of uncertainty, but there are a lot of things against the dollar over the long-term. being out on a limb relative to

peers on monetary policy which is good for the economy but can weaken the currency values and also being out on a limb on fiscal policy -- i expect when the volatility subsides, we won't see this in the dollar anymo re. haidi: do you expect the volatility to continue? pretty much last week was the worst volatility for all asset classes since march. expect untilwe can the policy landscape is better known? >> the volatility in emerging market assets has less to do with the uncertainty in the u.s. uncertaintythe about the industrial election. intonk it is calling question some of the numbers

we've been seeing over the past few months. quite positive in global industrials because of your exposure to the chinese rebound. we are getting chinese pmi's this week and production numbers were good over the weekend. a positive narrative that you would be investing along, still? >> it is. i think that a second wave or a third wave is a risk. lockdown. a risk of the narrative in favor of industrials is that they tend to lead in the early stages of an economic recovery. we are seeing that in spades because what this has done for consumers around the world is changed their appetite for the experienced economy.

eating out and going to shows, going to an expensive trip abroad. shifting the focus to the physical economy around building and owning homes, buying cars, a nd actually experiencing direct physical fruits of your labor. this happens in every recovery. in this recovery is getting supercharged -- it is getting supercharged. quick let's get you a track on the latest -- latest business flash headlines. at levelsis trading not seen since march. new zealand and australia will be well below forecast. latest 2021 full-year revenue projection is about $40.9 billion, lower than analyst estimates.

theceo says that due to strengthening of china, triggering expansion plans in the country. they are still struggling with the carlos ghosn scandal. a leading makes it player on the mainland. american airlines expect u.s. federal aid from aviation to be expended -- extended when the program expires. congressontinue urging to offer support for a whiting stimulus package. parker says that -- widening stimulus package. moment, melbourne's curfew is lifted as infections continue to slow. we will look at the wider australian economy next. this is bloomberg.

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>> you are watching daybreak australia. we begin with our top story. court will decide whether to strike down president trump's ban on tiktok. administration says that tiktok poses an immediate national security threat. the district judge to issue a ruling by midnight d.c. time. the administration is setting up its fight with china imposing export tariffs. american companies need a license to provide certain products with the congress --

commerce department. the company has not yet been formally added to the administration-esque of a so-called entity list which means -- administration's so-called entity list. -- shenwah news quotes. million ethnic leaders are being housed in ethnic concentration camps. they call them something else. she says that her labour party is leaking some support but enjoys a wide lead over the national party. she has been praised for her leadership amid the coronavirus pandemic and her response to the mass shooting in christchurch.

than 2700 more journalists and analysts in more than one hubbard 20 countries -- in more than 120 countries. other measures are being relaxed after a sharp drop-off in the u.k. of covid-19. what are the implications of the economy? it's going to be an improvement but a modest one. 16 new cases were reported in victoria. that is way down. in august we were seeing caseloads of about 700 per day. they were facing a legal challenge this morning anyway. that is a moot point. they must remain within five kilometers of their home. people can120,000 get back to work in some trees

like construction, logistics -- in some industries like construction and logistics and distribution. a welcome but incremental change which is still causing some frustration. the retail association saying this roadmap is to go -- too slow. the whole scandal began with that bungled hotel quarantine program, managed by a private security firm. know -- doesn't know who made the decision to use private security. that it is thee job of the health minister. she is gone. a new health minister is in place in victoria now. it was a weekend of good news and that is the case here in east south wales. zero new cases. that's the first time that has happened since mid-june.

for thatoes that mean travel corridor with new zealand? >> conversations around that have begun again. spoke on minister's that subject. it was being actively discussed until the outbreak we had in australia. the trade minister said he would like to see it by the end of the year but that it is up to new zealand. new zealand prime minister has been speaking to the media saying that it could be possible by christmas. there is the election in october. it might be interesting to see once that's out of the way. if you take victoria out of the equation, both countries are trending very similar. support continues for the aviation sector. the prime minister saying that the support for domestic flights will be extended until the end

of january. government support totaling $1.3 billion. >> we have breaking at the moment. we are hearing that vpl express is saying that they will raise 9.6 7 billion hong kong dollars in a hong kong listing. have continued to see many hong kong second listings. their listing retail offer was 6.69 times. >> other news continuing. imposeds continue to be as they struggle to contain the resurgent virus and that is

putting airlines under more pressure. the german flagship says they have been forced to deepen job cuts. that aviation faces a desolate winter. kim of these various restrictions have been popping up daily. regard to being on --rd the aircraft [inaudible] it will be a .ifficult winter for all of us guy: you have announced this week that you will make some fleet reductions. indicated to us had that one aircraft

equals 100 jobs. i'm trying to do the calculations of what this will mean in terms of headcount reduction at live tons of. does that still apply? are we looking at additional job cuts on top of the numbers you have already announced? exactwill depend on the aircraft we are taking out. for these numbers to be talking 23then we're or 24. of theirn the number craft on the ground is much higher. about two thirds of our aircraft are grounded. we are looking at only half being grounded next year. before we come to a new normal, -- ther that will be, numbers are less positive than

they are on the european sides. ceo -- the is the lufthansa ceo speaking to guy johnson. economic partner nikki hadley will be asked about the implications.

the job keeper payment also changes. this could see the australian economy lose over $31 billion and 145,000 jobs over the next two years. nikki huntley joins us now. talk us through the broader implications of this. what do the priority policies need to be right now? bear in mind we still have victoria largely in lockdown. these programs were implemented to help shore up the economy. they have been effective in dampening what could have been a lot worse for australia. the flip side is that if you remove all of that, it will have

an impact. that will flow with the jobs. highreas that already had rise employment, those areas have been most effective -- affected by this. reportedly higher response. we have regional areas of australia that have been doubly impacted by that in some metro areas. to sit -- to take all of that away so quickly, it is due to go out the door completely at the end of this calendar year. some hope that we'll look at places like the u.s. where there has been better recovery in the non farm payrolls than we might've expected, more quickly than we might have expected. are by no means out of the

woods. there.ot even halfway will obviously take a massive hit to the economy. we know that part of that concern is that some of those jobs might never come back. we're just getting the latest on victoria. five new virus cases in the last 24 hours and three new virus deaths over that same period. trending in the right direction. in terms of a sustained recovery, recovery is so based on the strength of domestic demand. doesborders closed, australia have that level of determination? absolutely not. beingiginal estimates of

down 30% had been changed to a net outflow. australia ask about population growth is very reliant on migration. we expect that it will fall even more as it tends to in a recession. construction are going through a difficult time ahead. monetary policy is close to the end of its tenure. fiscal policy has to do with heavy lifting. with the prime ministers seems to be saying -- what the prime minister seems to be saying, changing their tune from earlier in the year, they say we know we need to be sensible and we will take this one step at a time. i hope that they will respond accordingly. shery: how much have cheaper borrowing costs affected the economy when it comes to households and governments? >> the biggest beneficiaries have been governments.

they know they can build up the budget next week. we are looking at a deficit over 10% of gdp. the impact is very small. it's lower than it was a few years ago when the budget deficit was lower. it is helpful to households and businesses that are doing ok. if you're struggling to get business through the door, it's going to cost a significant part. those are the things that are slamming businesses. access to credit is tight anyway. it is questionable how effective it is. there are people coming into the property market. they have not fallen through the -- we are seeing people still secure in their jobs. it's mind-boggling to me that you could do this. it's helping but it's helping

sectors of the market. it is not a panacea for all. fiscalwithdrawing the stimulus measures as scheduled, how much longer does it delay the job market getting back to pre-pandemic levels? will it be able to get back to those levels? 145,000 jobs lost of this year and next is a big wachk to come out -- whack to come out of the economy. we already have our unemployment closer to 7% in 2023 and 2024. that's with the government said that they are looking for. withdrawing some of that stimulus. adding to that doesn't make sense. you save the economy now and you will get out of this more quickly. the deeper the hole, the longer it takes to climb out. we don't want to see anything

that will add to those jobs unnecessarily. haidi: is there a concern over the deficit? to be fair, treasury had a conservative view when it comes to iron ore. >> a few of these are probably conservative. not just iron ore. these haven't been quite as dire within the july figures. we think we will still get 200 billion. nobody is worried about this. the worst at the government could do would be to start the austerity measures. i was keeping an eye on this the other day. to get austerity, what we need now is stimulus. from imf andrs

lcd. the australian government said and week, the focuses jobs -- focus is jobs and we are not in a position to talk about reducing this over the current period. if you think that it took us a decade to get close to that level before the financial crisis, which was a smaller hit, it's going to take a very long time to get back to that. shery: is great having your views. the latest on the australian economy. automakers are hoping that china can find sales at a time when other markets are struggling. the highlights from the beijing motor show our next. ♪

shery: the only major international car show this year is underway in beijing. the world's largest auto market sees signs of a recovery after a slump. this year features more than nine exhibitors. tom mackenzie joins us now. you went over the weekend. what were the highlights? tom: the reminder in terms of

ae virus is testing as measure to control the virus. it is the first major auto show since the outbreak. china did cover up the outbreak at the start but the virus control since then has been effective. it was well attended. you had hundreds of exhibitors, new brands and models being displayed. it is also a reminder of the economic recovery that we're seeing in china, even if that is fragile. we are seeing after a two-year slump in auto sales that it has picked up. we are cautiously optimistic that the market is starting to turn around. there is a strong presence from the startups. a big capital-raising push. the likes of wn motor. whose stock-yo,

prices rose over the last 11 months. we spoke to the chairman and the founder of one of the leading start up ev makers. freeman shen. he said he is relatively optimistic. year.s year is a special it's difficult to predict. the first quarter. the second quarter is slow. the third quarter starts picking up. the fourth quarter we expect will be a good quarter for us. next year will hopefully be another good year for everyone. it's difficult to say. the good thing is we are very lean. our execution is very quick. when we make decisions, we do it very quickly. we don't need a long-term

forecast. we can watch the market closely. when the market has a different from what we thought, we can change our strategy quickly and easily catch the growth. >> for 2021, do you have a target? >> another big goal. we are very confident. of muchabout a goal more than 10%. >> you have one model at the moment. a concept car on the stage today. when will you add additional models? >> we have three models on the road right now. we will start to deliver another brand-new vehicle. vehicles with level four autonomy drive. completely new vehicles. we are working on a new project.

we hope that we can be there by late next year. of products in the pipeline. we are a very small company. we cannot do like volkswagen and rollout so many products at the same time. we are trying to do one vehicle every year. customers, there are two new products for the market every year. when we say to the market, we mean that the customer can really get the car. some of our competition are talking about a lot of new products what people cannot get it -- but people cannot get it. >> you talked about elon musk coming out saying he is looking at producing a $25,000 tesla. does that pose a challenge to wm? >> i think it is a good thing for us. we are very happy that tesla came china because tesla is like

apple in the early days. they educate the whole market. before tesla came, china used electric vehicles for many years. when you ask them, they said they are poorly designed, poorly engineered, poor quality. aty only bought them because that time you still got a high subsidy from the government. to china started educating the market, just like apple. i think we will become one of those p mobile phone players. they are in the mainstream market. they are the company who saw the most benefit from this apple thing. declined market shares because the major market players became so strong. we believe we are one of those mainstream market players.

tom: that was the founder and chairman of wn motors talking about his view on increasing 2021 by more than 10% in and talking about the tesla effect. haidi: in terms of the tesla is that shared across the industry by other players as well? >> broadly. you heard him say we welcome tesla's entry into the market. you can now produce high-quality, high-performance electric vehicles. he made that comparison between apple and tesla saying that apple came in with a high-end smart phone number of years ago and that led to some of the mass-market phone makers that you see in china, and he says that he think the same thing will happen in china. he says there is a warning that

in five to 10 years, companies like his, wn motors, and some of the others will start to chip away at his market share. a warning that tesla may not have that market lead in five to 10 years time if they have their way. haidi: tom mackenzie there in beijing. let's get you a quick check of the business flash headlines. prices have little room to rise in the next three months. to curb-19 continues demand for energy. renewed travel and social distancing restrictions are dragging on demand. commerce bank has named a new leader to push through one of the largest restructuring

programs in history. the current head of german retail banking at deutsche's will be taking the reins from the outgoing leader on the first of january next year. we have a lot more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,

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>> very good morning. we are counting down to asia's major markets. >> welcome to daybreak asia. our top stories. u.s. china tensions turn another page. tiktok awaits a court's ruling on a potential ban. while the white house slap export curbs over ties to the military. haidi: president trump