francine: the new york times says the president lost millions and paid hardly any income tax in years. he denies the claims. hsbc shares jumped as the previous shareholder raises the state to 8%. the eu and u.k. enter the final round of brexit talks. the tory government faces another rebellion at home. happy monday and welcome to bloomberg surveillance. the markets will definitely get

their q1 a couple of political stories out there on the market and this is what we are looking at for european stocks. at the banks or some of the industries sustaining the surging afterwards shareholder raises its stake. the other thing i'm looking at sentiment bolstered by enemy. it expects business to improve as far as restaurants -- as bars and restaurants reopen after lockdown. >> according to the new york just, president trump paid $750 in income tax in the 2016 and 2017. that is due to reporting losses of millions of dollars from his golf courses. according to his returns, he paid no income tax intent of the

past 15 years. the paper says he has hundreds of millions of debt in the next few years. the president says the report is fake news. president trump has nominated judge amy coney barrett to the supreme court. she will be his third appointment to the bench, cementing its shift to the right for a generation. she is known to be a devout catholic and has defined abortion is always immoral. the nomination set up a clash in the senate with republicans planning a confirmation vote in the last week of october. a conservative party rebellion against boris johnson is gaining steam. opposition parties of signaled support for a backbench tory plan to force parliamentary scrutiny for new pandemic restrictions. the labour party is criticizing johnson for putting jobs at risk. they say it's plans to support the economy do far too little.

lebanon's prime minister designate has stepped down after failing to form a government. it leaves the nation rudderless as it struggles to recover from a devastating explosion. has called the move a collective betrayal by the lebanon politicians. global news -- global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. francine: european markets rallied as china continues to provide a beacon of hope for economic recovery after the coronavirus. the bank sector is something we are watching closely. the top performer of the stoxx 600 driving gains. joining us is laura cooper. what are you looking at for the rest of the day, but also the week? >> i certainly think what we are

seeing today in price action is the european equities are catching up to the gains we saw late in the u.s. session being driven by banks. that comes after the banking sector reached an intraday all-time low on friday. it is hard to say this is going to persist. given the fact markets have quite a bit to digest in the week ahead. so top of mind is the rising infections in europe that are the key risk for equities. but also, the confluence of political forces. whether that crunch time for brexit talks, whether it's the ecb conference, but predominantly the u.s. presidential debate, of the first one tomorrow is going to be crucial for risk appetite. a is too soon to declare about of risk aversion is over. you are focusing on correlations and i urge everyone

who is listening or watching to go check out the blog because it's a great piece of work. what details about correlation? >> just given the current backdrop we are seeing this breakdown and historical correlations. when we look at the performance of gold versus the s&p 500, clearly at they have been moving in tandem in the positive direction which is not something we would typically see. whether it's brought in by quantitative easing, there's a number of numerous factors that are distorting the trends we typically see. whether we look on the historical basis, how far back do we look? that's really going to be quite a conundrum for a number of strategies -- strategists, when do we see these resume their typical trend? right now, the market backdrop

is so distorted that they are clearly breaking down. francine: thank you so much, laura cooper. with the jplusively morgan chief officer for m&a. we talk about the markets and the economy. we also talk about working from home. this is bloomberg. ♪ mberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. and francine lacqua. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. hsbc has posted its biggest intraday jump since 2009, recovering from a 25 year low. shareholder biggest

raised its stake. to aupped its holding percent saying it remains confident in the bank's long-term prospects. commerzbank has picked up deutsche bank's manfred as its next ceo. he will spearhead one of the largest restructuring programs in the lender his -- the lender's history. that will lead to about 10,000 job losses. he will take over from martin on january the third. chairmanund a new after investors soured on the longtime chief executive leading the board. he headed the world's largest luxury car for 13 years until 2019. he won't return. the outgoing siemens boss is now seen as a leading candidate to become chairman. that is your bloomberg business flash.

francine: let's get to one of our top stories. president trump pages $750 in u.s. income taxes in 2016 and 2017, reportedly losing millions from his golf course and has hundreds of millions in debt that will be due over the next three years. this according to a report in the new york times. woulde a pledge she pursue no new deals while in office. he has dismissed the report. >> totally fake news. actually i paid tax, and you will see that as soon as my tax returns -- it's under audit, they have been under audit for a long time. the irs does not treat me well. francine: this comes days before the first u.s. presidential debate that is held tuesday night in ohio. joining us to talk more about the race, let's get to stephanie baker. theseportant could

alleged revelations be? iton one level i think confirms what a lot of people already thought was true and most people i think have made up their minds about from, he has already dismissed it is fake news and that will probably satisfy his base. for the swing voters who remain undecided, this could be crucial. it partly depends on how the biden campaign uses it. you have seen already overnight they pushed out an ad saying nurses paid $10,000 in taxes in elementary school teachers paid $7,000 and trump paid 750. it should infuriate people and particularly swing voters. suburban voters trump has been targeting with his law & order willge and i expect biden probably hammer him with it at tomorrow's debate with questions like what are you, are you a

successful businessman who lied to the irs or rua businessman who's lost millions of dollars. it should put him back on the defensive. francine: if it does play out in the polls, when would we see a shift? >> i think it will take a little time. i think what we should be looking at is what kind of shift this affects in the swing states. states like florida, which are really must win states for trump. does this infuriate older voters who think i've paid more in taxes than the president has an he claims to be a billionaire. i would expect after the debates next week to see if there is any change in the polls, but he is going to start to try and bring it back to his supreme court nominee where those

hearings will start in the middle of the month. it depends on how long this lasts. is this a short-term flip and we get back to supreme court fight or how long does the new york times start rolling out the stories, do they have more and it does seem like they do have more to roll out. francine: we will get back to stephanie later on and also throughout the week for some essential reporting on this presidential debate. joining us is the director of chatham house. always great to speak to you. monday morning, we are not lacking news in terms of the presidential race. how does this story from the new york times play with the american voter? as people of said, very hard to tell at this point. president trump is notoriously candid during his 2016 campaign about the fact he could do pretty much anything and voters would stick by him because they

believe he is authentic. where is your reporter noted where it will make a difference is with the swing voters, those independents who may be thinking one way or the other and it's really a case if joe biden can tap-in to that frustration with these new revelations. this bit of news is authentic. you look at the debate on tuesday in ohio, how should joe biden play it? people he play at that who are going to vote for trump to vote for him or convince the undecideds. >> i suppose you have to insert this element of division between him and his core base. part of the reason joe biden is such a strong candidate potentially is he can take those working-class voters that notoriously made the move to trump and 2016 and bring them

back to the fold. he really needs to use this campaign to try and erode that hold especially in the swing states in the rust belt, he needs to take that group and see if he can land some blows to the credibility this is a president who does not value you, but one who stands for themselves. , the folkseave trump he said he could murder someone in the streets and they would be happy. that group won't bring over. biden needs to take the undecideds and at that level, the idea he's not paying his money as we go into a covid crash. as the belt-tightening even more. about the scotus and this evening court appointment? does that change votes? think part of the reason

some people voted for president trump who might not have done so , conservatives who are morally conservative thought he would be a good vehicle to be able to provide really a once in a generation change in the balance of the supreme court. chance to make a fundamental swing. if that change takes place before the actual vote in november, then does he get rewarded or to some of those voters say i got done what he needs to get done with president trump. i don't know if i need to vote for him a second time. or do they say he was true to his word, we need to reward his consistency. i think it's too hard to tell at the moment. we aree: it seems entering another key week for brexit talks. can trust be regained between the two parties so there is an

agreement? without trust, will we get a deal? >> that is the right question. trust was severely eroded by boris johnson's decision to bring in parliaments internal market bill which would allow the british government to override international treaties with the eu. that is at the core of the trust. the british government does not yet have in its semester claw, any legal basis for how will deal with state aid. support for companies in the future after it leaves the single market provisions on january 1. what they've been saying is trust us, we will come up with a state aid bill that will be to your liking. if you are on the eu side, you say you can -- we can't trust you, look what you did with your internal market bill. this adds an extra wrinkle to this tight one month ahead of the mid-october eu summit to get

the deal done. , you don't need trust of self interest is present. done in to get a deal this covert context is so pressing, my money is on a deal getting done. seems to of the obstacles are fisheries and state aid to the u.k.. how easy will be that -- will that be to overcome? >> fisheries is always a toxic issue. destinyur i remember 40 or 50 years ago. it is an incredibly vociferous and focused political lobby, as is the agricultural lobby in many countries. especially in france, which has its own input on where things go. the opportunity for a deal to be done here. the deal the eu has with norway

allows an annual review of the fish quota. the u.k. is saying we cannot commit for an indefinite continuation of the current thengement, we need capacity to redo these deals on a regular basis. the compromise position is the u.k. government to commit to a transition of four or five years but then allow a time towards something more equitable that allows people to take a different view. fell -- fisheries brought those into the eu. them to be crazy for take control of the fishing waters and have the eu punish it to export into markets. a deal has to be done. francine: how much of a difficult time is boris johnson having from his conservative

party? if you read all the papers in the u.k. this weekend, there is talk about boris johnson a precarious position principally because of the response to the covid pandemic has been subpar, to put it mildly. each time a new step is taken, it turns out not to live up to the billing. the kind of optimistic boost taken -- has he is taken is wearing thin. i think the problem is you have two groups. to histhe hardliners right on brexit and immigration to beve always wanted more behind them on those. and they are also involved in

the objections to the very tight new procedures put in place on social distancing and closing pubs and restaurants. they are bringing that libertarian women to him. some whohers, he has have been excluded from cabinet, people he defeated and undermined in his push for leadership. the former chancellor, the former foreign and health secretaries, they are sitting on the back benches. some of them an important committee positions who can scrutinize every step he takes. theresa may will now be involved in this rebellion against the internal market bill and you can be sure the common sense group will be rebelling to try and demand parliament get oversight of any new emergency procedures taken to deal with covid. francine: thanks so much. , europe's biggest bank

bounces back. hsbc shares jump as much as a 25 yearovering from low. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: hsbc rising. that after its biggest shareholder raised its stake.

joining us is dani burger. what details do we know so far? >> we know according to a filing that they bought 10.8 million shares last week. they own 80% of the company. that solidifies them is the biggest shareholder of hsbc. this is a turnaround in sentiment. last week it was trading at a 25-year-old low -- a 25 year low. the average price they bought was 20 eight hong kong dollars and $.29. not much of a premium. and8 hong kong dollars $.29. not much of a premium. francine: this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. let's get to the bloomberg first word news in london with leigh-ann gerrans.

leigh-ann: according to the new york times, president trump pay just over $750 in income tax in 2016 and 2017. that is due to reporting losses of millions of dollars from his golf courses. according to his returns, he paid no income tax in 10 of the past 15 years. paper also says he has hundreds of millions of debt due in the next coming few years. the president says the report is fake news. staying in the u.s., a judge has temporarily blocked donald trump's bandon tiktok, which was due to be removed from app stores by midnight. the reasons are not available, but they may be unsealed later today. the move is a blow to the government in its showdown with tiktok. well, president trump has nominated judge amy coney barrett to the supreme court.

she would be his third appointment to the bench, cementing its shift to the right for a generation. there is known to be a devout has described abortion as immoral. a confirmation vote is set for the last week of october. a decade-long conflict has erected in fighting again. -- has erupted in fighting again. azerbaijan and russia. and -- the last in 2016. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i leigh-annntries, gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? year 2020how will the

reshape and redefine investment banking? our guest this morning has been an integral part of j.p.morgan's european business. during that time he has held roles including head of debt and equity capital markets, head of global equity capital markets, and most recently, head of banking for em ea. we are delighted to be coined by this was raghavan, chief and head officer global banking. thank you for joining us this morning. we need to talk about working from home and we need to talk about brexit, but let's start off on the markets. how difficult is it to talk -- to call these kind of markets, given all of the news coming from different directions? >> good morning, francine. the markets are awash with liquidity. you have seen unprecedented qe being injected into the markets, and the crust -- the quest for paper and for yield continues.

you're seeing asset classes pretty much every asset class being underpinned by this qe, and you could almost kind of say that there is maybe a slight disconnect between markets right now and the real economy. so i would say a market awash with liquidity is our cat crisis. francine: what are your clients asking? do they have the appetite to do m&a and to go out and take on more debt? if you look at the stages and with each this -- in which say market -- i would during the first phase there was an initial grant for liquidity initial -- an initial scramble for liquidity. then there was an absolute dilution of issuance, in the debt market which morphed into

convertibles and equities. you saw little in terms of m&a. if you take m&a volumes globally, we are about $1.2 trillion, 28% below last year. a bulk of that $1.2 trillion is being back end loaded. what you are seeing now is once that wave of liquidity and all the bond issuance, etc., has been as buttressed capital structures and making sure that companies are robust, what you're seeing now is with valuations pretty strong, there is a focus back on m&a. where if your company has done well and if your share prices are intact, i think boards today are dealing with, with their share price comes responsibility. do i get this growth which is expected of me? does it come organically or through acquisitions? acquisitions are back on the cards given this phenomenal amount of liquidity we are

seeing and robust asset prices, at least for some companies. i would add two more points to that. two wildcards -- one is, if a lazyny -- if you have a capital structure and if those expectations of growth are not met, clearly the activists have not gone away. what wehave seen at -- have seen is activists that have become more investors in the past six months. we have not seen that many, and i suppose that is to come. the other pocket in private equity. revit equity is sitting on a wall of, once again, a wall of liquidity, which they are eager to put to work. i am kind of optimistic on the outlook of m&a. francine: if you look at private equity, what will it take for them to deploy that cash? does it need to be posed u.s. elections because of

uncertainty, or will there be another catalyst? i think the bigger driver is the availability of leverage. to make an acquisition, you will inject the equity but you need to get your leverage on top of it. that your terms of leverage on top of it. you're seeing the right names for the right investment equity stories, that leverage is available given all the liquidity i have described. the signs are all ominous. an are looking at environment where there is a lot of firepower. there are quite a few companies as well as pe and other drivers which are looking to deploy the firepower, and all of that points to, hopefully, resurgent in m&a activity. francine: what will be the main growth areas for the european -- the em ea side of j.p. morgan in the coming years, given what you have just laid out? vis: i would say debt issuance

is going to be more normalized. we have seen that frenzy of issuance happen already, so you will see volumes kind of get more normalized. you will be seeing more issuance in hybrid form, also a lot of green bond issuance, which is getting a lot of interest from specific investor groups. but i would say in the capital markets, the key driver is going to be equities asian. so all of those companies that have effectively secure liquidity are now looking at the markets to say hang on, i don't see how this virus is going to manifest itself or how it is going to evolve over the coming months. i see the out there. my share price is respectable, so should i take this opportunity to improve equitable -- capital structure and grab while i can? if things take a turn for the

better, than i have the firepower to enact strategic game plan. so i would say you're seeing slowly that wave of equities asian happened. and that wave is both from a defensive point of view, so the directly impacted sectors, companies in the footfall sectors, looking to basically example,hts issues for we have completed a rights issue in the u.k. you will continue to see a lot of issuers access the markets to make sure that their capital structure is robust. on the other side you will see equity being used as acquisition consideration. which justens, acquisition. likewise, you are seeing some bank transactions involving paper. there is this wave of acquisition that we are bracing

ourselves for, and then clearly hope&a momentum that i comes our way. is a lot of talk about jamie dimon's private committee and working from home, and i also want to talk about brexit and the plans that j.p. morgan has put in place. what do you spend most of your time on. we talk about the markets and some of the business. is it a worry that people can come back to the office quickly? how does it change work patterns and how much time do you spend talking about brexit and how do you plan in the eventuality of a no deal? vis: i think we have just gone into a nice rhythm of some kind of a rotational work from home, so we had folks who were working from home, and it was an interesting part of our return to work plans, where there has and 50% of the time a home the remaining 50% in the office. for us, really, the benefits of being together, the camaraderie,

the intellectual kind of mind share, also remember, we have a massive intake of no analysts and interns who really gained and benefit from soaking in kind of the j.p.morgan culture, money from colleagues on the trading floor who are next to them. so that was part of our kind of drive and desire to really, you know, preserve all those things that we value and cherish about being part of j.p. morgan. clearly, with the latest government guidance, a lot of that has been put on pause. our different lines of businesses are evaluating what does working from home look like, and clearly a looks like those numbers will trend lower. but this rotational model is very much i would say even of ad covid, some kind model for the future. much,ne: thank you so this raghavan stays with us come and we have to talk about

brexit. coming up, the 2020 investment our guest.h we are also getting breaking news out of india, are b.i. rescheduling its monetary coffee panel meeting. so we should have that date announced shortly. as soon as we have it, i will bring it to you. we will also look at the consequences. this is bloomberg. ♪

this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get to the bloomberg business with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: today siemens has taken the latest step in simplifying its structure, spinning off its energy units.

the new phone technology is roughly behind 1.6 of the -- 1/6 of the world's electricity. shares sunk on the day before paring back most of those losses. now shares of china's largest chipmaker are sinking today after -- chipmaker are sinking today after the u.s. posed restrictions. according to a note from the commerce department, there is an unacceptable risk of the chipmaker's components being used in a military capacity. and veolia is planning to deliver a sweetened bid for french waste and water company suez ahead of a wednesday get done -- wednesday deadline according to a company ceo in a newspaper. it plans to raise the price to pay for reports, the new offer

will pay for a clarification in job guarantees. francine: let's get more from our schools of conversation with viswas raghavan of j.p. morgan. he is cohead of global investment banking. we talk about j.p. morgan and the steps you're are taking to ensure that you can still service your clients in case of an are deal brexit. what is the probability right now of a no deal brexit, and doesn't mean you could move further assets or more people into mainland europe? brexit preparedness point of view, we have been paired now for many years, and clearly what we have been waiting for is to see what form of brexit itself. if you look at the research view, there is still the hope for some kind of a deal to be the outcome. so our research analyst very

much expects some kind of a deal to manifest itself. from our preparedness, we are -- i think we have held off on people moves until the very end. we were conscious about dislocating families, and what we have done is undertake what we need to to to be functional as of january 1. we are watching with bated breath to see how brexit manifest itself and what it means for financial services the like. but in terms of being ready, we are prepared for every outcome. francine: even if there is a best case scenario, a trade deal, how much of an exodus would we see in general out of the city of london? on whatreally depends equivalents looks like and what you're able to continue to do and not do. it is a major -- global liquidity center.

it is relevant as it relates to being a major money center. it is still going to be strong and it is not going to be entirely diminished, but it is inevitable, depending on what equivalents looks like and what we are able to do otherwise with our e.u. facing clients, you will see some action and some activity move to ag come in our case, ag, the german legal entity is going to be our flagship pacing entity. depending on what you're allowed to do, you'll you will see an element of it migrate to the continent. francine: in terms of the revenue j.p. morgan does in the u.k., would it be 20% to 25% moving to continental europe, or would it be less or more? vis: it is difficult to give a precise number. it really is a function of what activities are you going to be allowed to continue to kind of execute from being basic --

being based in the u.k. when you look at the distribution of a primary deal, if you take an ipo or an equity placement, the typical profile tends to be around 20% or 30% -- you end up0% with a portion that is the rest of the world. activity,look at that and a lot of that liquidity sits in the money centers in the u.s., in london, and in asia. so it is hard to quantify precisely, but it is going to be entirely dictated by what are you going to be allowed to do in this post-brexit -- in this post-brexit agreement. francine: is 25% something that sounds about right? or are we off the mark? vis: i think you are in the zip code. start, andsonable you need to really monitor

exactly the nature of the activity and what you can based in do from london and what migrates to the continent. thecine: how difficult has pandemic actually made the shift to the continent? clearly, for most folks, an element of mobility, when it was left to the final stages -- clearly now, with the pandemic and quarantines, etc., it imposes kind of extraneous restrictions on that mobility. and clearly what we are looking at is to be very open-minded and flexible so that we can, you know, provide accommodation for the employees that are affected, make sure that we can take care of travel and really have some kind of forbearance in making sure that our experience for our employees is as smooth as possible, and likewise i think the key focus is for our clients

who ca seamless jp -- who see a seamless j.p. morgan not impacted by people moves and internal mobility led initiatives. francine: the ecb bank regulator said the market had night that had not priced in the deal. what worries you about a no deal? t functioning that could be disrupted or volatile? above.early all of the what does it mean for trade, for consumer confidence? what does it mean for barriers to trade? what does it mean for the economy? clearly, you have an economy that is feeling the impact of covid, so really this is kind of all thelayer with uncertainty that it brings. i would say from a market point of view, this is really

uncertainty and confidence that will be the key metrics that will be impacted by a no deal brexit. francine: how do you see the european banking consolidation phase? for the moment it is domestic, very local. two italian banks merged, two spanish banks merged. when will we get cross-border consolidation in europe, and what does that mean for j.p. morgan? vis: we have been talking about bank consolidation for the best part of a decade since the financial crisis. if you look at the banking model, the cost of doing business is just going up and up and up, whether it is capital, whether it is liquidity, whether it is cyber technology, compliance. so really, i think there are compelling benefits to scale. that scale benefits not simply from the cost side of the equation but also it benefits from client service, from the

client offering, and really what you are seeing is the big names of the long muted bank consolidation wave. you said it, francine. you saw it in saudi arabia, you saw bankia and you have seen it in italy. i think we have been waiting for this for a wild. it does make sense, and it is kind of reassuring to see this quest for scale and optimizing of business models take place. francine: thank you so much. another three hours to speak to you, but thank you so much. we have things to do. that you have things to do. coheadhavan, head of -- of global investment banking a j.p. morgan. they're still seeing a bill -- a bit of a rally in european markets, gaining by just 1.5%. a lot of banking stocks with hsbc are higher, and some of the

travel and leisure as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. a busy week ahead. let's take a look at what we are watching. a london judge plans to rule -- a final round of brexit talks is kicking off. the markets brace for the first president debate on wednesday. on thursday, the e.u. holds a special summit amid unknown tensions between turkey and greece. friday is of course u.s. jobs day. this is what the markets are looking at. to thes a bit of a lift tape. hsbc and some of the other industries in europe. you can see european stocks getting 1.5 percent. coming up next, tom keene joins me for more "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

francine: trump tax bombshell. "the new york times" says the president lost millions and paid

hardly any income tax in recent years. he denies the claims. doubling down. hsbc shares jumped the most since 2009 as its biggest shareholder raises its stake to 8%. and the e.u. and the u.k. enter the final round of brexit talks this week. the tory government faces another party rebellion at home over its emergency powers. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. there is a lot going on in politics. i don't know how that will play out at the polls, but luckily we have experts to try and figure that out for us. we their -- and there are a couple of things going on in the markets, including hsbc losing it percent the last time i looked. tom: the minority interest that we saw in china. the politics here are extraordinary. the most important thing i heard in your last hour is that it is jobs day on friday.