president lost millions and paid hardly any income tax in recent years. he denies the claims. doubling down. hsbc shares jumped the most since 2009 as its biggest shareholder raises its stake to 8%. and the e.u. and the u.k. enter the final round of brexit talks this week. the tory government faces another party rebellion at home over its emergency powers. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. there is a lot going on in politics. i don't know how that will play out at the polls, but luckily we have experts to try and figure that out for us. we their -- and there are a couple of things going on in the markets, including hsbc losing it percent the last time i looked. tom: the minority interest that we saw in china. the politics here are extraordinary. the most important thing i heard in your last hour is that it is jobs day on friday.

economists are desperate to get clarity on the labor economy. we will ramp up coverage until jobs day later in the week. let's get to the bloomberg first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: president is denouncing a blockbuster report on his taxes as fake news. according to the new york times, the present page $750 on u.s. income taxes in 2016 and 2017. the paper says he reportedly lost millions of dollars from his golf courses, and is hundreds of millions of debt -- and is in hundreds of millions of debt this coming june. democrats are previewing the -- to oppose the confirmation to supreme court nominee amy coney barrett. by zeroing in on the risk to americans' health care coverage. the supreme court will hear a case in november that could lead

to obamacare being ended. regardless, that confirmation seems assured because republicans have a majority in the senate. the trump administration has suffered a setback in its showdown with tiktok. a federal judge has temporarily blocked president trump's ban on new downloads of the video sharing network. tiktok was due to be removed from app stores by midnight. the judge is halting a november deadline for the sale of the u.s. unit. u.k. and european union are starting a crucial week of brexit talks. e.u. officials are stiffening demands over how any trade deal will be enforced. they have lost trust in boris johnson because of his attempt to rewrite last year's exit agreement. both sides are holding out hopes a deal can be reached. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: let's reset for the morning. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities.

the euro of attention. i will get that in a moment. dell futures up to .38. the vix is an important marker, 26.96, so the vix cited below 30 i would say. we will see where that ends up. 26.96 on the vix, and i'm sure we will get requote for the market opening. the euro is near recent weakness as well. presidentand we have lagarde talking to parliament later on, and part of the ecb's watchers conference. european stocks are rallying the most in two weeks. i think it is bank shares that are leading these gains. oil dropping below $40 a barrel. if you look at what is happening in banks, it is hsbc surging 10% in london after the biggest shareholder raised its stake in the bet that the embattled lender will return to paying dividend. it could be a game changer going

in the future. let's get to top stories, and lots talk about the u.s.. the new york times reports president trump paid $750 in u.s. income taxes in 2016 at 2017 and has hundreds of millions of debt that could come do over the next few years. the president has dismissed the report. pres. trump: total fake news. actually, a paid tax, and you will see that as soon as my tax returns -- they underwrote it for a long time. the irs does not treat me well. i will tell you that i look forward to releasing that. i look forward to releasing many things. .eople will be really shocked the new york times been doing this. fake story after fake story. i've never seen anything like it. tom: joining me now -- francine: joining me now is jacob parakitas. when you look at how this plays

out, there are a number of things. there is the supreme court nomination, there is a debate tomorrow, and now there is this by the.tax return story does it change people who will vote for him, or does it impact the polls at all? impacti don't think it the polls usually because what we have seen over the last 12 months or more is an extra nurse stability. it has been the most eventful year i think most of us can remember, and yet at the beginning of the year, joe biden was leading donald trump by six to 10 points depending on which pole you looked at. there we are in october, and joe ahead by six to 10 points. there is an intense level of activity we have seen on the news front, on the quality front, and things like the coming of our is kind of cut through all of those things.

so the question is whether trump can do anything in the next few weeks to change that fundamental dynamic. because you have -- he has to if he wants to be competitive. be three or four points in the poll, have a decent shot of beating biden. given that it comes with that she paid $750. that by itself is a nugget that he will have a difficult time getting around, and i would see -- i would inspect to see biden use it in the debate tomorrow night. francine: does joe biden need to win the debate, or does he just not need to be terrible tomorrow? jacob: he needs to not be terrible. the problem for trump is that he and his surrogates have spent a lot of time basically setting expectations for biden on the floor. they did the same thing with biden's national convention

asech is broadly praised good if not great for biden. this distance between the expectations that have been set, that he would not be able to remember where he was, did not do them any favors. they are kind of repeating that tactic. it is possible biden could have some kind of slip up, he could turn in a bad performance, but again, what we have seen repeatedly throughout the campaign is that the electorate has largely made up its mind. the number of undecided voters is real but small. tom: jacob, who is the undecided voter? jacob: that is a really good question, and i'm afraid i don't have a really good answer. you have conservatives who may not like donald trump on a personal level, they may not like the tweeting, they may not like the details of his personal life, they may not like some of his foreign policy choices.

but by the same token, like his sort of cutting deregulation, they like conservative judges, and they are trying to weigh those. there are people who don't pay a lot of attention to politics, who they know trump mostly as a relatively -- as a reality tv star and biden as some kind of politician and are only tune in now. but there is a special relevance from 2016 and there are not that many undecided voters. people have a strong impression of both guys and who they are. tom: timothy o'brien -- i'm thrilled to tell you that not once but twice he will join bloomberg surveillance this morning on television and radio ago, andlished moments it is unfair to you because the essay just came out. he definitely alludes that the real issue here is not tax avoidance, it is not the that the voter, but

president is a national security threat. do you perceive that he is? jacob: that is a very complicated question, and i don't think we are going to get the answer from a tax return. what a lot of people have said, and what rings true to me is that someone with enormous debt, as the president has, possibly totaling over $1 billion, has points of leverage that creditors could use to get concessions from him and his administration. that is not necessarily a national security threat, but it is certainly a public policy issue that needs to be considered by the electorate. the national security threat question is a much broader one than the tax returns. 's is, do you consider trump attempts to extract more money from allies for services that they provided as part of a u.s. geopolitical influence a threat? does the idea that europe might seek a balance away from the

united states because of trump's behavior and his attempts to extract more revenue from europe , misunderstanding what the alliance is actually for? is that a national security threat? to my way of thinking it is, but their arguments that falls in a different category than a threat. francine: what we heard from the new york times is basically that trump's taxes show chronic losses in years of income tax avoidance. because he had to be campaign to discredit main street media, do the majorities of americans believe this is a possibility? jacob: i think what happened is president's relentless attacks on the media have convinced his most hard-core support, call it 35% of the population, that this kind of thing is irrelevant, it is fake, made up, slander, and i don't think that any revelation

conveys through the durational , ithe traditional news media don't think that would change that support. but that's not the majority of the population, it's not even there plurality of the electoral college. the question is, what impact will it have on the people who are conservative who may not like trump, who do not pay a lot of attention to politics and may only pay attention in the immediate run up to the election . when do they make up their mind? if the polls are roughly correct, this may not be a close election. but if it is, and there is every chance that it could be, the bull could move in both directions and you could see a significant tightening between now and november. the decision a small number of people could make could bring to the stage a small and nine -- a small number of voters in swing states could affect the election. tom: we appreciate you getting started in this hour in an

eventful week. jacob parakitas. we have much more coming up. we want to draw your attention to debate coverage. this will be truly an original debate. i don't think i editorialized there. cleveland, ohio, tuesday night at 8:30. coming up, with futures up 26, timothy o'brien will join us. we are thrilled that he will be with us twice across the morning, just publishing moments essaysthe article, the and the essays to come from "the new york times." tim o'brien, only on "bloomberg surveillance." good morning. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone.

we go to friday and jobs day, but along the way, market coverage, really some terrific political noise jumpstarted last night by the publication in the new york times of the president's taxes back a good number of years. we are going back and forth between these political ideas and economic ideas, but also we must pay attention to the markets. jeremy stretch joins us with cibc, head of g10 fx strategy. give me dollar dynamics, but really expressed in the euro is remarkable. good luck with this question. how do you determine a vector or a direction, even, on euro -dollar right now? what tools do you use to try to gauge the path of an ever weaker euro? jeremy: you are right, it is a challenging task in terms of the determination of the euro. what we would say is that we have seen that excessive run

higher in terms of euro, we saw it in terms of significant long position in terms of real money extending loans to record highs, and now we are seeing a realization that impact that was a false move when announcing a more realistic valuation in euro, but i think it is the case that we are probably getting towards the lower end of this correction phase. but we will watch for additional language and additional rhetoric from the ecb, and of course we want to listen to christine lagarde closely today because i think there is this realization that they would be much happier with euro which is in the teens rather than necessarily upper teens, and that is kind of where we are, but from the euro perspective, the real economy data is softening. cases inmber of covid europe moving up exponentially. linking you foreign-exchange caution or speculation on the virus? toemy: well, not directly

the virus but in terms of what it does for the macro economic outcome. in a sense we have seen the ecb alongside many other central banks to revise their 2020 growth forecast from a very pessimistic set of readings in the middle of the summer or into the early autumn. but as we move into q4, it doesn't look as if the growth project three for final quarter of the year looks a little slower than the central banks would have hoped, and it adds to the pressure on the central banks to look at at stimulus measures. i think that is where the dynamics of the path and passage of the virus play out in terms of how it has changed the narrative in the macroeconomic 2021 as af q4 and whole. francine: when we look at the volatility we could see in the markets and the correlations there, is the fx space where we will see the most volatility

into u.s. elections and into brexit? jeremy: of course there is inherent degree of political uncertainty. i was listening with great interest your previous guest talking about the political dynamics, and those are very significant and very large, and of course we go into that u.s. presidential election with a question mark of not only who will be the winner but whether that will be an easily and rectify able process to come out on the other side once the counts have been made. and we have these brexit uncertainties as we get to the end game of this process. there is evidentially a lot of political risk, and that political risk i think does normally manifest itself quite correctly in a lot of potential fx volatility. that is the way we are going to continue to trade with headline risk proving to be significant over the course of this week for the brexit story in particular but also over the course of the next few weeks as we run into the presidential election on hopefully a third outcome. francine: in the last hour we

wend that the reserve bank scheduled a meeting of its policy committee, set to begin on tuesday. are the emerging-market currencies the ones that are the most at risk? jeremy: potentially yes, i think there is obviously elements of uncertainty in the em space, because of course it is some of those emerging markets, whether it is the greatest risk factor from the virus progression and of course unfortunately many of those emerging markets, the health care systems are less well-developed and less well-funded to counteract that. so that does have potential ramifications for the macroeconomic performance and the ability of those economies to push back and provide stimulus to offset any of the negative headwind. there is some uncertainty there, and of course if we are to see dollar base volatility in the course of the next few weeks as well, that will manifest itself particularly in some of those

emerging market currencies against the dollar. tom: jeremy stretch will continue with us, and i want to talk about turkish lira. it is out almost three standard deviations comics putting higher this morning, and certainly sent central bank -- 7.78 on turkish secretarythis as pompeo is in thessalonica of greece. mark howard, bnp paribas, always informative on macro strategy, in the 7:00 hour. timothy o'brien in our next hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance." -- will by the u.s. operations for $1.1 billion in cash and stocks. that will make the ohio-based steely the biggest producer in north america. cleveland clift expects the sale cliffst that cleveland expects the sale to boost sales. bank, aky at deutsche takeover in january 1. he has a reputation for making tough cuts and his main task is inoversee a turnaround commerzbank that could eliminate 10,000 jobs. of therchasing a portion

macro company's business. severus capital acquired remington into thousand seven. the firearms and ammunition giant accumulated all most $8 billion in debt. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. thank you so much. this is what the market is focusing on. a lot of the focus is on the reality that is continuing in europe, but banks are meeting gains in europe. a lot of what will dictate the markets is not only christine lagarde speaking to parliament but also bbc watchers and later on in the week it is jobs day. they will give us a good indication for the moment of what kind of economy we are seeing in the u.s. tom: very good. i'm looking at euro in terms of the data. euro comes in under 1.17. my eyes are failing me this money. -- failing me this morning. 1.1644. -- dowtures up to .30

futures 2.32. more coming up. us ony o'brien will join the president's finances, as reported by "the new york times" last night. always a continuing story is the continuing american economy with dubs they on friday, in the with jobs day on friday. in the 11:00 hour, danny blanchflower. upures up 27, dell futures 230. stay with us. jeremy stretch next. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

franciene: this it's -- franciene: we are getting breaking news out of london.

fit and proper is losing its london license. this comes on the back of -- i think it was 12 months ago if i have the timing right, at the time they said uber should be banned because a lack of surveillance. knowe moment, from what we , they have decided -- i do not know whether they have put security things in place to make sure it was fit and proper, but i guess this changes everything for uber. it was because of safety concerns that transport for london refused to renew its operating license. we will see the next step. premarket, over gaining 7.3%. still with us not to talk about uber is jeremy -- me about- talk to renminbi. we had aknow whether

full understanding of the transformation of that economy. what are they doing the next couple of quarters? when you were talking about the next week or so, because of course there will be holidays over the next week or two which will reduce liquidity. favorneralized theme we here is the currency beginning to appreciate. marksk there are question about that data efficacy. -- intoa further pepper resumes -- in terms of macro data as well over the last few years. we still have this presumption that we are going to see the generalized global recovery phase playing out over the next course. i think that will play out over a couple of quarters. there are bumps in the road from

the northern hemisphere as we move into the flu season, which will have an impact, but overall i think it will gradually move lower and i think that is the trend we would actively assume. some degree of vaccine environment, that is going to be the generalized tone for the dollar as well. franciene: what does the u.s. election mean for renminbi? to be ongoinging uncertainty as we run into november. there will of course be uncertainty as to the outcome postelection because we have to determine which side of the equation proves victorious. thean assume that even if democrats were to be successful, there wouldn't be an immediate thawing of relations with china. whilst we will get

headlines which will periodically cause destabilization in markets because trump will want to maintain a legacy of pressing down on china to facilitate support from his base. i am not sure he will facilitate a breakdown in equity markets because that is one of the key arbiters of his success metric, at least in the republican's minds. there will be uncertainty yes, but i think we see rallies and progressively we will see interest to sell, assuming we do not get a material breakdown in trade relations. tom: we avoid math on monday, but we can't with the turkish lira. there is a thing called log convexity world the logarithm you have a straight line and that all of is curved and accelerating, in this case to a weaker leader. log sorry, i have got convexity and acceleration on

turkish lira as of moments ago at three standard deviations. how do you measure when a currency unravels? difficult to see anything other than this explosion in terms of pressure points on the turkish currency. clearly there are political risks in terms of the azerbaijan-armenian conflict which wrapped up -- ramped up over the weekend and provides reason to sell the turkish lira. .t does seem to be the case will be increasingly difficult once again to the authorities. theturkish lira has been worst performing currencies over the course of three months, and it is difficult to see until there is a reverse negative or regional risk dynamics that we can see any capping of this

particular -- tom: i think it is an idle idea that pompeo is in thessalonian. very nice update. up to 39.s -- 239. paida: president trump $750 in u.s. income taxes in 2016 and 2017 according to the new york times. the president reported losing millions on his golf courses and reportedly had hundreds of millions in debt that will come due in the next few years. the president called the report "fake news." signaledpublicans have there will be a quick confirmation process for amy coney barrett. hearings would begin in two weeks. president trump is optimistic barrett could be seated on the high court before election day.

polls show joe biden maintaining his lead over president trump nationally. other surveys joe biden ahead in key swing states and close and others. the washington post-abc news poll gives bite and a 10 point lead. the new york times have bite and up eight points. the candidates square off tomorrow. almost 2000 people in california had their power cut because of wildfires. its end is trying to keep power from starting new blazes. utility went bankrupt last year after its equipment ignited catastrophic fires. fire in california have burned thousands of acres. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. franciene: thanks. the former governor of massachusetts at 1238.

-- 12:30. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning everyone. it is an eventful monday made more eventful by what we saw last night from the new york times. they promised further articles through the week as well. lacqua and tome keene. let's read from timothy l o'brien, this was published moments ago. has a haphazard businessman, the human billboard and serial bankruptcy artist to gorgeous on debt he may have a hard time repaying. the president's overall indebtedness is greater than the

new york times tally. 2012, the president criticized barack obama for only paying $161,000 in taxes. that is a lot more than $750 too." officer, wentact were talking with francine and a break. all of these renovations will really not move the undecided needle. why? >> as we were discussing before we came on, i do not think it comes as a big surprise to both of hours -- both supporters or opponents to donald trump that he tries to minimize his taxes and maximize his wealth. the perception of his wealth. i do not think it is going to change anybody's mind. i think it confirms the worst things people think about him on of side and the character

the people who supported him think he has. mentioned, 5% undecided. i am shocked by that. this is basically an election done, does the debate moved the undecided? it probably will have an impact, but i also think it could have an impact on the people who have said there is little that could change their minds. risk on both sides for donald trump and joe biden. they are different, but there is a risk that there could be a moment that could turn the race against them. franciene: what would that moment be? if you are president trump, what would it take for someone to stop voting for you? he famously said that he could shoot somebody and wouldn't lose any voters. four years in, is still the case? >> i think he could possibly say

something on the -- on our allies. he could portray himself as ab -- an insensitive person. there are reports that he is a personalunch attack on joe biden and his family. that could turn out to turn voters off. he cannot afford to have his people not show up. path tohis only way -- the presidency, to get his supporters out. franciene: i know we were talking at the break about the fact that they are not that many on -- there are not that many undecided voters. will people actually vote? >> that is the question, especially for joe biden. he has to energize his base. whether you are an enthusiastic supporter of biden or not, he

has to work to make sure the people who are against president trump vote. that is not what happened with hillary clinton, thus we have donald trump. incredibly important that joe biden get his face out -- get his base out. tom: an idea come up in the zeitgeist this morning that in the supreme court hearings, atator feinstein, fragile 87, should give way within the testimony of misses kony barrett. harris.la should give way to kamala harris, is that possible? >> some of senator feinstein's comments on religion came back to haunt her. be carefulve to about what exactly kamala harris' role is.

a prosecutor, or is she a vice presidential candidate? it is a delicate balance, but it is possible they could let her take stage and have her do the main questioning of this candidate. this andok at all of of the debate, you and i are the only ones breathing who remember kennedy-nixon. frame this debate. >> it is going to be fascinating. conversation is that donald trump is going to go full aggressive. 's's joe biden -- joe biden's greatest quality is his empathy and humanity. how those meet in the middle of a contentious election is going to be fascinating. disclosure with the life i lead, marty schenker forces me to go to bed early and i've never seen a debate in my life.

i might stay up tomorrow. chief content -- the former green beret from florida michael waltz in the 6:00 hour. this is bloomberg. futures up 29. ♪

ritika: a big victory for uber in the u.k.. a judge ruled the ride service is fit and proper to operate in a city. last year, regulators revoked uber's license over safety concerns. the board of british gambling company william hill will recommend its $3.7 billion takeover price. their advantage and a potential bidding war with apollo global management. -- already has a joint venture in the u.s.. the second deadline to settle remaining lawsuits claiming it's

roundup weed killer cause cancer. judge couldt, the threaten sending the cases to trial. -- had reached agreements and 75% of the cases. hsbc posted its biggest jump since 2009, recovering from a 25 year low. commerzbank has appointed deutsche bank -- for its restructuring program. here to comment is jonathan tice. bank-deutsche bank -- if you look at hsbc, this bank has been under immense pressure for the last couple of quarters. and now one of its biggest shareholders wants to take a bid on it. therenk that they think is going to be a big turnaround?

>> [indiscernible] it says to hong kong investors that there is going to be a dividend then they will restart dividends. that was a big part of the selloff when they were forced by the pay rate cut. look,k it is also saying i think this has got quite a future and it is an expensive now. if you look at the size of -- it is negligible. they will still have a place in china, do not give up completely. franciene: does it tell you that once they start repaying dividends, a lot of these banking stocks are considered cheap? dividend part of the equation is -- the regulators are going to say --

these things are working in most cases. the issue still is the low single-digit r.o.e., two to three years with no revenue growth because of where rates are. we need restructuring and we need more cost-cutting. for that part of the equation, it is quite important in and of itself. it is not a big enough reason for people to suddenly decide they want to over weight stocks. tom: john, good morning. what i find fascinating about manfred not was that he was nyu and then harvard. is he an anglo-american banker in disguise? >> you have got to hope that in a country like germany, you do price tonably stronger cutting cost which is what commerzbank needs. you also get a clinical approach to shrinking things like the corporate part of the bank,

which is a problem. . you have got to make decisive decisions and bringing an outsider in his being received positively. you just think they would muddle along, which they can't. tom: what will be that labor battle? it is easy to do on the bloomberg terminal, they've got 47,000 warm bodies commerzbank. of cuts thatcope are needed? colleague has gotten members. [indiscernible] if you look at the cost base that does not generate revenue, you are talking 30% in some cases. in a world where digital is taking over, not just retail but corporate, they need a source of cuts that we are going to see.

does the pandemic and working from home actually make these cuts easier to implement? got tone hand, you've the network. in the u.k., what do the elderly do? there is that big social debate. i do not think it makes it any easier. now. but, the pandemic has accelerated digital advancement. it has accelerated the need for them to do it because they discovered we can do more a lot quickly than we thought. this was supposed to be a three to four year plan, they have probably got not -- they have probably done two years and six months. see oure: where will be first cross-border consolidation? >> with commerzbank, they look too deutsche. now you've got ubs talking deutsche bank.

credit suisse may, or maybe the bmp. i think it has to be on the asset management side. the cross-border is not really what domestic is about, which is shutting retail networks and stripping out lots of traditional banking. it is more about scale to compete with the americans and also continue to narrow. you need more scale. is thetsche bank story soft end of this bill where you've got business as well. domestic retail and domestic corporate first and the bigger deals, we can't see anything apart from -- until deep into next year. tom: what is the power of the german government to basically tell commerzbank what to do? on a quickas them ratio at 0.19 book value. i have never seen a statistic that low. why doesn't the german

government just put them out of their misery? >> who are you going to fill the room with? --many shortly has [indiscernible] the minute you do that, you're going to get wholesale branch closes. the german government is seeing this time when they have extended their furlough scheme to be driving through retail network closures. they are playing quite delicately. tom: bizarre. thank you so much. banks and their stories are quite different, hsbc on commerzbank. francine, i find european banking and the partition to american banking to be extraordinary. we will have plenty more on that. we also spoke to j.p. morgan head and he was interested, he

said he was expecting consolidation was the thing that nate -- was a thing that needs to come. we also had a conversation about brexit and the fact that j.p. morgan was moving so many assets to service clients. new weakness on turkish lira, 7.79. a very weak lira. that is a remarkable statement today of a weaker lira. 10 year doing better. -.91%. daniel -- daniel ahn.

tom: it was said in 1934 about

judge --, anyone may arrange his affairs so that his taxes shall be as low as possible. president trump has arranged his affairs fairly well and according to the new york times has shown chronic losses in -- and years of tax avoidance. timothy l o'brien on the art of collecting golf courses. turkish lira much weaker. there is no debate from cleveland tomorrow night. it will be a debate for the ages. keene in new york, francine lacqua in london. a nice quiet weekend. then, the new york times with this bombshell. as we heard martin schenker say, the fact of the matter is that so much of this was presumed to be, but nevertheless there is 10-15 years of a president's finances laid out. franciene: we don't know whether that moves the needle