dependence with peace of mind. ask about saving up to $1,500 on your installation. virtual appointments now available. >> from bloomberg, i am joe weisenthal. romaine: i'm romaine bostick. let's take a look at where the markets ended on the day. equity traders scrambling. is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: politicians down in washington politic over the next round of fiscal stimulus. treasury secretary steven

mnuchin and says there is no agreement yet, and majority leader mitch mcconnell saying republicans and democrats still far apart, and even if both sides come to an agreement, it could be too little, too late. there has been no financial bridge to help a lot of individual americans, families withstand the recession. we are seeing a lot of blue-chip release alike disney warning sign, telegraphing job cuts. the question is, if we don't get some sort of government stimulus, whether this could actually accelerate. joe: that's the big story. duringdisney yesterday our show, more news coming out on layoffs just now. it does feel like some of the bigger corporate announcements are gathering steam a little bit. europe, continental,

shell. these are not furloughs the way that some of the layoffs were earlier in the year. these are deeper, permanent, more restructuring as the new environment starts to become clearer. romaine: disney there, you see the 28,000. those were originally furloughs. the idea was those people would be coming back to work. park, stillia closed, and the big one down in florida, running at a very limited capacity, and once they made the announcement that these people were effectively going to be permanently cut, this is going to start to show up in the economic data. 3.4 million, that is from august. we are going to get a new payrolls report this friday, which most likely is going to show an incredible uptick in that permanent number of u.s. job losses. joe: that brings a heightened urgency to some of these stimulus talks, so for more on that, let's bring in tax reporter laura davis.

there seems to be a little bit of action happening, pelosi and mnuchin reopening those talks. the markets seem to think there is more of a chance of a deal. aes it feel like there is shot here for something to happen? question, and the it is still seeming like no. yes, they had some talks today. said they are closer on some issues. mcconnell downplayed the progress they are making, that they are still far apart, and he says he doesn't see a deal coming together. each side says they want to do something, but when they look at, what is the forcing act for them to do something, this is something they've been talking about two months. the road forward is still very tough to get something before the election.

romaine: if you can go back to mcconnell for a second, because we have been putting a lot of focus on the effort that nancy pelosi and steve mnuchin have been making, but there has been no signaling from o'connell or the rank-and-file gop members in congress that they are on board with this no matter what the price is. mnuchin when you talk to senate members, they are uncomfortable with a $1 trillion package. there really is a big difference, even among republicans, about what they are willing to accept. they've gotten a little bit closer, a couple hundred billion dollars closer, but we are still talking a trillion dollars apart. joe: if president trump wanted to put his energy behind pelosi and muchin, come to an on a question of stimulus, if that were a major priority for the president,

would he have the impact to bring enough senators over the line if he pushed for it? mnuchin he certainly could, and particularly for some of the senators in danger of losing their seats, they want to see some stimulus come together. bill.ell had a vote on a it really some of the political impetus behind this, getting stimulus checks out, getting some of that ppe money that has a political boost, we are almost passed the point where that money could get out and into the economy ahead of the election. some of the political desire to do this has faded, and folks want to get back to their states. romaine: i wonder about the damage. some provisions of the cares july,hat expired back in and now we are getting another expiration of some provisions at the end of september. even if you are able to get something to trump's desk, he

signs it, there's still a big gap for a lot of folks from when they saw what was effectively their last check from the government. laura: a lot of states have the expanded federal unemployment benefits that trump had an executive order for. that has run out in many states. we are seeing a lot of layoff announcements. there will be a lot of people filing for unemployment. it got states -- took states months to get that up and going. example, it prime took them forever. still, this is something that is going to take weeks, not days or hours. joe: new headlines such as the ones we were talking about, whether it was the disney dooffs or others today, those become a catalyst for action? laura: they could, particularly as we start to hear more, and it's important to see where these layoffs are going to be. disney is a perfect example.

for central florida, for example, that is a swing state area. you could see politicians nudging, either pelosi, macconnell, trump, or all of the above, if they see this is going to be a problem for them electorally. romaine: laura davison, thank you. we will catch up with you quite soon. we are going to continue with this conversation. we are going to talk about that adp labor report that actually was a good report. of course, that is against the backdrop of what we have seen coming out of companies themselves. continental, goldman, allstate as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: today we are focused on a potential new round of u.s. government stimulus and whether or not it is going to be too late for the economic recovery. we did get that adp report. this is the private payrolls number that comes out every month ahead of the official government jobs report, and it was encouraging. joe: this makes the labor market situation hard to understand because we have this reopening and a of furloughed workers, and it continues to be better than expected. hard to see in this chart, but this was the best month and months for the adp, nearly 750,000 jobs added, so we are seeing that even amid some of these headlines about corporate layoffs. to see it there, just a reminder of the hole we have to dig ourselves out of.

joe: joining us is senior economist of bloomberg economics. it's confusing. we've had good nonfarm payroll numbers for several months that continue to beat expectations. at the same time, we had this creeping up of corporate layoffs. what to you is the main signal you are seeing that tells us something is meaningful about the strength of the labor market? i think a lot of this confusion can be explained by the timing of what is going on. the latest gdp report is good news, driven by improvements in ,anufacturing and construction but sectors are lagging behind. what is happening now will be reflected in future reports. november, thatd

is when we are going to start payroll slipping off a little bit. the initial rounds of fiscal aid provided enough of a cushion for the economy to continue recovering in the beginning of the fall amid relative stability of new covid cases, but we are kind of a turning point right now, and we are going to see some deceleration in terms of payroll. some of with regards to the corporate announcements we have seen over the past couple of days, there was always a fear that there would be this next wave of corporate layoffs, things that aren't reflected in the current government data. i'm wondering if you think this is going to be a significant enough driver where we might not see the moderation in those job losses as quickly as some people

might have expected. >> what is key is to see the next round of fiscal stimulus. air,ust talked about it on and i think that is the key make athat will difference between positive and negative payroll going forward. i just think in terms of the second wave of layoffs, i think it is irrelevant. we are going to start seeing more and more of those today. layoffs,rst wave of you saw a lot of them concentrated in the retail , but now you don't need retailer stores and spaces, we may see some layoffs in the real estate sector. that kind of secondary impact we are expecting, and also in white-collar workers -- the

first wave was in the blue-collar workers. now we are probably going to see some white-collar jobs gone. joe: yourjoe: view is the recovery right now in the absence of fiscal stimulus may not be self-sustaining. there are some people saying, if stimulus, wefiscal might still grow. >> i am not in the camp that expects a double-dip. i think economic growth continues, but it will continue at a slower pace fiscal stimulus or not. theill get there, but absence of the stimulus is a huge risk factor. we are probably going to see some negative prints in terms of gdp in the first half of next year if we don't get any significant measures taken. elena.ur thanks to y

we will be watching tomorrow's jobs report and follow what is going on with the stimulus talks in d.c. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: welcome back. we are focused on a potential round of u.s. stimulus and if it's going to be too late for the economic recovery. a lot of folks have felt the financial pain of the lock down due to covid-19 and that work from home environment. you are back in the office, but there's a lot of data showing that new york city shows that the flight of workers is continuing. joe: anyone going around new york these days knows there is a huge lack of normal activity, although there is too much traffic. it's interesting. you can look in the different

boroughs how much difference there really is between manhattan and in terms of the exodus versus some of these outer boroughs where there hasn't been much flight. i think it speaks to the economic divergence, disparity that you see across the city. romaine: there's a line in there that says richmond. is that virginia? richmond county. ok. i'm an idiot. [laughter] to welcome new york university stern school of upta.ess professor group you've done a lot of research real-time in this crisis, but you looked at the exodus, the mobility of the city by class, by borough. what are the key findings, and why do you think it is an important indicator of something to learn? >> thank you for having me on

the show. toused mobile phone data understand how many new yorkers actually left the city, and when did they do that. as of the middle of july or so, about 15% to 20% of the population of manhattan has actually left. aspect ofstriking migration in response to covid that warps previous patterns and shows the possible effect on cities. romaine: i'm just curious. there is a lot of evidence here that people are leaving or at least relocating. there's also some evidence that that could be temporary. once you finally get past the covid crisis, there is a vaccine . there's an expectation these apartments will fill back up. is there any evidence you are

seeing statistically that would support that? >> the cities so far that seem hardest hit are new york as well as san francisco. some hard evidence we can look is prices.t for many cities around the country, we haven't seen the same real estate impact as we have for the largest cities. the more permanent moves are more likely to be contained in those largest urban areas. joe: it's an extraordinary exodus we have seen, and we will know over the coming months how much of it was temporary, people going to some other place versus a permanent move. we already know that a lot of people have been leaving for cheaper areas, and some of these cities that were booming, whether they are nashville or austin, these were hot areas .rior

do you have a sense of how much this is new behavior versus pulling forward moves that might have happened over the next five years anyway? >> a lot of these moves whether they are further into suburbs or towards these fast growing area are likely pulled forward demand. however, even that would have a stark change in how cities function. in the 1970's and 1980's, we saw some parts of that poll for demand change how cities function, and it's possible those changes in the future would make a drastic difference on what it's like to live in new york. romaine: all three of us live very fortunate lives, and when we talk about the ability to move, there are a lot of thus that can pick up and choose where to live. there are a lot of people in new york city who don't have the means to do that. if you have a city where the only people left behind are lower income workers and workers who are unemployed or people with fewer options, what kind of

city does that leave? >> i think you are right that this pandemic is highlighting the inequalities in a much starker way than we have seen previously, and what we find in our research is that workers who are staying behind are more likely to be essential workers and people who continue to commute to the workplace, which exposes them to greater risk of contracting covid. joe: we are talking about the stimulus, and one of the sticking points is this idea of aid to cities and states. the democrats are much more for it. republicans are much more skeptical. for new york right now, how pivotal is this? is this a situation where if new york can get a infusion of aid, it can maintain essential services and halt the exodus, and if they don't, it could be in exodus that is self-sustaining? >> i think there is a risk of

that negative spiral. the city for a couple of decades has relied on those wealthier individuals who have delayed and postponed the moves to the ,uburbs but provided a tax base and as more people leave, these services will be cut back in ways that encourage more and more people to leave the city. ismay end up with a city more young people, which may be good for the city, but without that same level of tax base, you will find it hard to support that high income population. romaine: this brings the government into focus and city councils as well. there is an idea that governments that have more favorable tax schemes or better city services might be able to attract people at the expense of others. >> i think that would be very healthy competition, and those

other cities are going to find that with new availability of work from home, they are going to be able to attract different kinds of workers. i think that is very healthy competition across the country. joe: what are the next areas? on twitter, you track a lot of different things. you've been looking about -- looking at the economic impacts of this crisis. what are the key areas policymakers need to get a handle on in terms of the economic impact of this crisis, as well as the health impact, when the thinking about the next set of policies? >> one of them would be the local government angle we mentioned before. the other thing i am watching closely is what happens to commercial real estate. we all know many aspects of commercial real estate have been hit very badly. we have seen large waves of delinquencies among tenants, and we aren't sure what that is

going to lead to. are we going to see more foreclosures? i think this is going to be a critical area to watch. when romaine: you talk about looking at commercial real estate, you are primarily looking at people going into more at or can you look some of the retail side of spending and get a better sense participatingare in the city and economy? >> it's about all the major food groups of commercial real estate, office, retail, apartment buildings, industrial, lodging. even inen a divergence commercial real estate. all-time family and office are doing much better whereas retail and lodging are doing much worse. some greatu have research, great data. we are going to have to leave it there.

joe, a lot of his data, it gets into this granular stuff that gives us a lot more insight, quicker insight into where this economic recovery is going. joe: that's one of the striking things about this crisis, how quickly we know things. research that might have been expected to come out years from now is coming out in real time thanks to the existence of alternative data we have, cell phone data being able to track migration. we track alternative data points all the time. is an interesting conversation. i hope we continue it on this show and future episodes. as we get through this recovery and start to get more of that traditional data, the monthly numbers and weekly numbers, it will be interesting to see how that sinks up. joe: more traditional numbers coming this week, initial jobless claims tomorrow, and friday, nonfarm payrolls. that's all for "what'd you miss? "

"bloomberg technology" is next. romaine: have a great evening, everyone. this is bloomberg. ♪

emily: i am emily chang in san francisco, and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, palantir debuts as a $17 billion company, a far cry from the $20 billion from five years ago. was a direct listing the right call? new tools to track vaccinations on a massive scale. how salesforce