francine: technical difficulties. pulse tradingange for the entire day. halts trading for the entire day. for e.u., discussions on baylor elarus. good morning, everyone. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in

london. the markets are actually on the up today in hopes that we will get some kind of stimulus in the u.s. let's bring you exactly what we are looking at. european stocks are opening higher. again, there seems to be progress in washington toward a fresh stimulus package. the dollar falling on thursday after ending the fourth quarter. the tokyo stock exchange halted trading after its worst breakdown. coming up later, the world pose halts. etf trader we will speak to ishares' stephen cohen. the first, let's get to bloomberg first word news with laura. laura: continued because of economic uncertainty due to the pandemic, disappoint lenders such as jp morgan, which had already indicated it wanted to

resume buybacks. the potentialed coronavirus vaccine from oxford university and astrazeneca. the so-called "rolling review" allows them to see a trial basis of what is ongoing. rises to the investigation that led to a halt in the trial. the format of the presidential debate is changing after the first clash between president trump and m aquatic challenger joe biden. organizers say they want to provide a different view. biting things candidates should be able to speak uninterrupted, but the trump campaign says rules changing are moving the goal post. financial services firms in the than 1.2 shifted more trillion pounds to the u.s. had of brexit. more are likely to follow in the coming weeks as the end of the looms.ion period

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: laura, thank you so much. the tokyo stock exchange, the world's third-largest, has shut trading for the entire day. the operator plans to restart the system and resume trade tomorrow. ant is what it said in announcement. joining us is our trades reporter, dani burger. did we learn more about what actually went wrong? dani: francine, the discussion is still going on this morning, but the tokyo stock exchange is doing its best to explain the issue at hand, initially saying they had a hardware issue and then tried to change the system over to a backup system, and that is when they got the glitch, leading to halt trading for the entirety of the day. going forward, their plan is to

restart the system and have it up and running by tomorrow. now, the fault, they say, lies with what they say is in their trading system. that was helped developed by an outside company, but extremely apologetic in this press conference, francine. the japan stock exchange group says the fault lies with them, and they regret how the announcement was given to the public, but they wanted to take their time to really understand the issue at hand before they gave more details about why exactly the exchange has been closed and their plans for reopening it. ni, what is the sentiment and japan? what are traders saying? dani: i have been talking to different traders in the region who said at the beginning, there was a silence, deafening silence is what they called it, saying that it was unimaginable that they had not stressed tested their backup system to make sure it had this occur, that they could handle it.

ae trader said to me, "it is comedy show in making my eyes water, i am not sure if from laughter or sorrow." another said "it is pieced together by chewing gum and rubber bands," of course, we know that is obviously a hyperbole there, but this idea that yes, they are trying to explain at the moment what happened, but really just a surprise from the investor base that they did not have a better business continuity plan. and although most big japanese firms do operate on dark door outside of the normal exchange, you can definitely expect traders to vote with their feet, no longer use some of the exchanges affected by this until they are absolutely positive that this will not happen again. francine: thank you so much, dani burger, with the very latest on what is going on in japan. the u.s. is set to vote on a new stimulus plan. give speakerto

nancy pelosi and steven mnuchin and one more day. both say they are making progress. president trump has also signed bill, avoidingng a shutdown of the government. cole,g us now is adam head of currency strategy for rbc capital markets. adam: it looks as if they are moving closely to a compromise and a vote. ironically, however, given that some cross asset correlations are so strong in our markets at the moment, the immediate market reaction to that has a positive for the u.s. economy, maybe. the immediate market reaction to that would be to push risky thets higher, and with dollar having reestablished itself as a safe haven recently, to push the dollar lower. longer-term, i think it is a different story. both the immediate market reaction is good news and bad

news for the dollar. francine: adam, when you look at whatlations, you know, correlations and asx markets remain valid -- in the fx markets remains valid? general risk a appetite. many of the local relationships are as they were in the immediate wake of the financial crisis, so the aussie, the kiwi, the canadian dollar all trading with a solid general risk appetite, and the dollar, swiss bank, safe haven on the other cited that. -- other side of that. i do not think that is going to change in the near term, so 80% of the daily variation in many of those currency pairs is explained just by whether markets are risk on or risk off. variationwe get from back in global rates markets with some dispersion starting to

open up in global central bank prospects, then we probably stay in this kind of default position, where risk becomes a key driver, and that makes it difficult to play a fundamental macro stories like increasing u.s. fiscal stimulus. that makes it difficult to play that in fx markets, where we are constantly looking over our shoulder at what the s&p future is doing. francine: i know we have seen a little bit of momentum in renminbi-dollar picking up to u.s. 1.7. is this also on a changing economy? adam: it is the latter right now. or to a degree, dollar cny is -- currency, it will tend to follow the general dollar direction in that

respect, but that is not the whole story. there is an element of independent yuan strength, if you look back over the last two or three months, and it is clear the direction is more than what the dollar is dictating. and that we expect to continue until the chinese authorities are comfortable with some modest appreciation. the cyclical indicates that china is still looking relatively good, compared to the rest of the world. the downturn was short, and we are back in an upswing. as long as that is the case, some gentle appreciation of the currency most likely going forward. francine: thank you so much, adam cole, rbc capital markets. we will get back to adam and ask him about the pound. there's a story, actually, saying the u.k. and eu have failed to agree. conversationo, a with the h&m chief financial officer in about 10 minutes from now. we look of course at this foreclosures and job losses. this is bloomberg. ♪ losses.

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francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. now, let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash, here's laura wright. hi, laura. laura: hi, francine. american airlines and united will start laying off thousands , but both prepared to reverse if the government provides additional aid in the next few days. 19,000 while united about 13,000. the move raise pressure on washington to agree to a new stimulus plan. goldman sachs and job cuts.

they plan to illuminate about 1% of its workforce, roughly 400 positions. the pandemic is forcing the to ride outs the job cuts. pixel 5 is in line with the latest top-end phones from apple and samsung. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you so much. we are getting a bit of breaking news. the poundl to agree, dropping on the back of it. let's go to adam cole and get his point on pound. adam, do you worry we do not get a deal, or does that show how sensitive pound is to, you know, any brexit news? itm: i think that

shows that markets got a little bit ahead of themselves in terms of expectation for what you might get for negotiations the short-term market probably is a little bit too optimistic on a solution, and if we do get a deal, which i would say is no more than a 50% probability, but if we do ultimately get a deal, that is likely to come at the last the middleht around of october, or even later than that. so i think at the moment, we should be alert to these kinds thatadlines and the risk it pulls back, to say markets got ahead of themselves, thinking we may get a solution as soon as this week. francine: adam, it also shows the normandy of the task at hand. water -- enormity of the task at hand. what are the chances we get a

deal i the 31st, and what happens to the pound if we do? adam: i would say the probability of a deal is below 50%, so i would say the most likely scenario, by a small margin, would be wto terms. is, however,hing how the markets react, so the downside, i think most would agree, is kind of more contentious. if that were the scenario to play outcome of the downside would be significant, so we could see a move down as low as to december 21, but on the others, if we do if we to -- other side, do manage to strike a deal, i see that being more limited, simply because of how sterling on that scenario, the deal perceived to be more than thee for europe

u.k., and u.k. industries would be disadvantaged. the upside would be quite limited in that scenario, although i do think it would be reasonably well-balanced around deal or no deal, the market reaction, i think, is asymmetric to the downside. cole,ne: all right, adam rbc capital markets. coming up, we speak to the h&m chief financial officer. estimates said it will close around 5% of stores. we will talk about brick-and-mortar versus online. this is bloomberg. ♪ nline. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. now, president trump wants to conserve them -- the conservative majority by replacing supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg before the election. president trump can thank a 2017 senate rule change for his shot at filling the supreme court seat. after democrats lost able to prove his first nominee, neil gorsuch, majority leader mitch mcconnell invokes the nuclear option at calling for a simple majority vote.

that allowed republicans to gorsuch and pave the way for trump's second appointee, brett kavanaugh, as well. 2016, president obama tapped mary garland to feel the late justice garcia -- merrick garland to fill that lay scalia's seat. it was prevented. either way, senate republican's move quickly. they found the nomination process historically under 70 days on average. and most nominees do make the final cut, since the supreme court's establishment, more than 77% have been confirmed. pretax profits cayman higher than estimated, but the retailer plans to close about 5% of its stores, so record

s it has been struggling to restore. we are joined by adam karlsson, chief financial officer of h&m. adam, thank you for joining us. when you look at your online presence, i think online, you what sales, make up 26% of you are selling at the moment. how much will that increase in the coming years? adam k: thank you for having me. statistically we do, but obviously we see now that the last couple of years, the digital shift is still ongoing and potentially accelerating, so we believe that share, over time, will increase. however, we also see that the majority is still shops in both channels, so we really see the shift is ongoing, but there is still a strong position for our stores to contribute to the. francine:francine: experience

but is -- to the experience. francine: but is closing 250 stores in 2021 enough, given the shift in other channels? adam k: we believe that, and it is an ongoing assessment. we increased to the estimate from this year and from 40 to 50, so we constantly review it. we review it from a customer perspective, where we set up a particular region. adam,ne: give me a sense, of what categories have actually been stronger online. all throughave seen mid spring that the customer is trending to shop more on the need category, that is to say the basic garments, the underwear, kids, and baby clothes, and a little bit less prone to shop the more "want" garment and the more high-fashion categories. francine: what are the margins, you know, what are the margin

implications of the shift in terms of channel by buying more online? adam k: we see that with the growth we have, we can utilize the investments we made over the last couple of years to really benefit from the scale that comes with a growing online that is but overall, all to be reviewed, the portfolio and the footprint, to see their customer needs in a profitable way, and our key goal now is to work throughout this tra transformation of the industry in a solid and a profitable way. so we see that they complement each other from a top line and a bottom line perspective. is there anything more drastic, adam karlsson, you can do to try to get that down? adam k: looking at how industry

has fluctuated in the second and third quarters, it reflects pretty much the position we were in last year. the difference now is that we have had a lot of stores close, so we are, number one, satisfied with the level, and our key focus now is to get on the trajectory that we started on for first quarter of 2020. so our ambition now is to get back on that track into continue to improve long-term the produc steps have you