>> this is a new bull market, and ultimately this will be a dip to buy. >> people don't like the fact that they don't know what their next three to six months will be like. >> it is possible for on them limit to rise and for gdp to grow at the same time. >> the fed is going to have to be highly accommodative for many years. >> we are not out of the woods, but things are slowly grinding higher. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." a most unusual jobs day.

there is no question, in all my years, this is the oddest jobs day, with a bomb shale -- with a bombshell earlier this morning. the president had the first have contracted the virus. we will show a shot of the white house here in a bit, describing the second floor and the president's presidential rooms. right now, we are beginning to hear with our bloomberg reporting from people in washington. jonathan: heard from jen jacob in her reporting before the top of the hour on the aids close to closeesident -- the aides to the president that were concerned. we understand the vice president has tested negative, so that is good news for mike pence. what we don't know yet is whether former vice president joe biden is out. we understand he will be tested at some point today. it is a high-profile track and trace.

everyone that has been in contact with the president, with hope hicks over the last week or so. who where they? have they been tested? it is an odd payrolls friday because 29 minutes away from payrolls, we haven't talk about payrolls. tom: we will touch on it as we move forward, and scheduled right now in the 9:00 hour is mr. kudlow. we will see if they go ahead ath that given the tumult 1600 pennsylvania avenue. i thought henrietta treyz was brilliant in the last hour on how we move forward, and that debate 13 days away seems forever away, doesn't it? lisa: it also probably is not happening, given what we are experiencing right now. jon is calling it the most expensive and most publicized track and trace yet. when you look at the market today, that pessimism breaking down with futures near session lows right now really speaks to how all of the focus will be on the covid response, but not

necessarily fiscal support. any divisions aren't necessarily going to be breached, and the likelihood of another deal getting passed pre-election, pretty low right now. tom: one more observation before we get to kevin cirilli and what -- before we get to kevin cirilli in washington, what did you observe with prime minister johnson's illness? jonathan: if memory serves correctly, it was the end of march when we learned he had tested positive for coronavirus. he was still working, obviously quarantined, and then things really deteriorated into the backend end of the first week of april, where he actually ended up in intensive care. that is the experience of one individual, and what we know is that one person's experience is completely different to another. i want to be really careful

here, as you pointed out, you're not making a judgment on the president, but the demographic he fits into. the health category you might place him in and the risks around that. i think we all of knowledge that this morning. but i think we need to be a little careful about the condition he is in. we understand he is still working. if we get a change, we will bring it to the audience right here. tom: for those of you joining us worldwide across this nation, there is the age of 74, the pounds, on the edge of obesity, and there is viralek out when any illness will turn, so that awaits us in the days to come. futures -53. they have deteriorated throughout the morning. -400.tures at the vix, 29.50. even the bond market moves.

basis year going out two points, and a lower by two basis points. the 30 year bond, 1.44%. oil weaker this morning. kevin cirilli in washington. kevin, what have you learned in the last hour? kevin: i just spoke with a senior aide at the white house who says they are not anticipating that we will hear from president trump this morning. again, that is not the expectation. they are not expecting the president to make remarks this morning. meanwhile, i've also contacted two senior aides to members of congress who were traveling with the president to and from the debate on air force one. one lawmaker was not awake. the other lawmaker said that they are getting tested this is ang, and that there team of contact tracers who have

developed a list in terms of who was in close proximity with the president. i raise this because it offers a glimpse into the procedure that is happening and has been occurring ever since 1:00 this morning, when this was made public as it relates to the president and the first lady, and our jennifer jacobs breaking last night that hope hicks was diagnosed as well. there's a team of officials at the white house who compiled a contact tracing list, and those notifications have been going out over the last couple of hours. ice president mike pence, as you both mentioned, has now pleaded publicly that he has tested positive -- that he has tested negative for the coronavirus. jonathan:jonathan: i want to push you on the timeline. this started with reporting at bloomberg that an aide close to the president, hope hicks, tested positive.

it was only hours after that we learned from the president, and his first comment with sean hannity, had just had a test. a question that has been asked repeatedly, and i think everyone is looking for clarification, when did they find out that hope hicks tested positive? when did they realize she had symptoms? at what point did the president find out and the people close to him, and when was he tested? if we find out that hope hicks tested positive in the morning and that the president of the united states had only just got tested before that sean hannity interview, i do want to push it a little bit. something doesn't add up. that timeline does not add up. kevin: there are a lot of questions about the timeline and questions that, as of 8:00 eastern this morning, we don't have the answers to. in the are correct, immediate next two to three hours, that timeline is crucial.

when did hope hicks contract the virus? when did the president contract the virus? that is why i frame the issue of the contact tracing theme that is working in coordination with secret service, with the medical officials in the executive branch, with the medical officials in the united states congress. ,hat is where the investigation and many ways, is lying. tom: what will vice president biden do today? will he test? willie campaign? willie rest -- will he campaign? will he rest? kevin: i believe we will get remarks within the next hour. tom: jennifer jacobs leading our coverage on this story as well. there was an effect on the equity markets is the tweet broke. a recovery in markets, and then the deterioration. gina martin adams has seen these seismic political events before,

and their effect on the market, our chief u.s. equity strategist. what do markets do in response to such a seismic political event? gina: it is tough to say in the short term exact lay what happens, other than markets will remain extremely volatile. obviously we have had a couple of days of market rallies in response to anticipated fiscal reform, and it is pretty clear that, given the state of affairs in washington right now, that is unlikely to happen. that, it is really difficult to say how the market responds except for in the way we were anticipating it would respond to the political season, with a lot of volatility and a very choppy trade. not a lot of people are willing to take on a significant degree of risk in anticipation of the election as it is, and this adds another leg of uncertainty in an election season that was already weighing on stocks. i would anticipate that the

market remains very choppy. anyway what -- we make about two testing those june peaks, support levels back in the september swoon, about 30 to 30 on the index. on the index. it wouldn't be surprising to retest those levels as the prospects for fiscal reform have certainly diminished with the news out of the white house this morning. lisa: given the sense that you expect further retracement, do you think the nasdaq tech heavy shares are going to underperform this morning, or do you expect something different where they become havens again? gina: they will eventually become havens again, but i think this is going to be more about cyclicals than anything else. this is one of the interesting things about june. the energy sector basically got obliterated in the month of september, and energy stocks were down more than 15% in september even though tech was

off about 5% or 6%. so we probably will see a downdraft in all cyclical segments. even the tech stocks are still cyclically oriented, despite the fact that they have behaved somewhat defensively. that is predicated upon the idea that we will see recovery, but just a recovery more focused on stay-at-home activities. ally view, you will see cyclicals trade lower. most likely you will see the super cyclicals like the energies and financials of the world trade much lower than tech , which has at least some degree of defensive quality to it. great to catchn: up. equity futures down. some of the latest reporting from waiters -- from reuters that i want to share with you, it is saying that the president will work from his residence. the u.s. vice president, of course, mike pence, who we

shared with you had tested negative for coronavirus, will also work from his residence as well. the white house is to keep the presidential and vice presidential staffs separate. it gives you an idea of the workflow this morning down in washington, d.c. we have talked about how difficult it might be to carry on negotiations. we have seen how the whole world works when you have to work from home. i am sure they can still have those talks. i just wonder whether that is going to be the focus for the next few days in washington. tom: i would say the focus is on the good news that the president will be working, and clearly he can work until we see which way this turns. but it is real simple, monitoring his health and his strength is really going to be front and center for dr. john conolly. jonathan: there's some questions this morning as to whether the president would address the nation this morning. we can confirm that the president is not expect it to speak this morning. from new york and london, 17

minutes away from payroll, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. more on that stunning news from the white house. president trump says he and his wife melania have tested positive for coronavirus, shortly after close aide hope hicks fell ill with the disease. president trump will continue to carry on his duties. we are just minutes away from the last u.s. jobs report before the november election. the numbers are expected to show a sharp deceleration in labor market gains. according to analysts surveyed by bloomberg, employers probably added 800,000 workers in september, down from almost 1.4 million in august. the jobs report is out at 8:30 a.m. new york time. stimulus talks remain on my passes after the house

bill that did nothing to bridge the gap with republicans who want to spend less. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are looking if this matter very seriously. we have been careful for months and months. we are doing our best to keep

everybody safe. jonathan: secretary of state mike pompeo as the news that rocks the world breaks this morning. the president of the united states testing positive for coronavirus. we are 12 minutes away from payrolls in america, and here is your equity market. we are down hard on the s&p, off by 1.3%. in the bond market, 0.66% on the 10 year. euro-dollar, $1.1725. we have hardly talked about it this morning, it is payrolls friday. the focus is very much elsewhere. tom: it is very much upon us right now, and we have qualified people to give us perspective on the labor economy. ,ames glassman joins us now from j.p. morgan chase, as he often does on jobs day. this one is odd. is the labor market moving so quickly that you deem this in ancient and dated report? james: no, it is all important. but what is interesting, i don't

think that most people know that gdp, gross output has recovered about 80% of the ground we lost in march and april, but the job market is recovering. unemployment is down about half of what it was. the job market has only recovered about half of the .round lost a lot of the problem is still centered in the small business community. we still have -- [no audio] -- surrounding the restaurants and bars and fitness centers. it is impressive that we are seeing a recovery. it seems steady when you look at the weekly jobless claims reports. i think the bigger challenge is ahead of us, though. if anyone challenge, connected to the air travel system, because it is really stunning how like the flow is. tom: i know flight trader has that global statistic, which is appalling. i don't buy the statistic of

-- of 8.x%.-- of 8. what do you have this morning? james: here's the issue that i think is a bigger deal. if you are self-employed, uber driver, you are basically considered employed. yet, because your income is way down from what it was, you do qualify for benefits from the unemployment insurance system. so we've got 12 million people or so still getting benefits from that program. that tells you that the unemployment statistics you are seeing, it is kind of masking the problem behind the scenes. there are a lot of people who maybe they are employed because they are self-employed, but not earning what they were because most of them are connected to this air travel system. so i think we don't know. the best thing we can say is that there is improvement.

i think if gdp isn't doing as well as it looks like, then we are going to continue to see that kind of improvement. we are not through this yet. we need to figure out how to get people comfortable moving again, and we need to get that medical answer behind this. lisa: people comfortable moving again the key point, especially this morning, as the virus is very much front and center. this is the question ellen zentner raised. so much depends on behavior. in some areas, behavior has been a little bit more lacks, to take a bit more risk and add to the recovery. do you think that behavioral boom will falter as people reassess? james: i don't think we are seeing much of a change in air travel. where you are seeing the big change is a lot of kids

going back to college. if you are young, i think you feel a little more protected. episodes like this make us a little more respectful of the disease. the real problem is no one's band from flying. -- no one's banned from flying. airlines are trying to show people that it can be done safely. trips to know where, you get on and fly discounted flights for three hours and come back down. i think once we get the medical e, when you know there is a medical answer to this disease, we will all breathe a little easier. it will take time to get people comfortable doing what they were seeingefore, but we are it slowly getting back to business without the kind of problems you might have feared. say onelifetime ago, day ago, we were talking about the job cuts announced. this idea that there was a shift

from the services side to bigger industry paid positions. how concerned are you about this and the potential scarring it will cause? james: there is big scarring that will come if it takes a long time to get people moving again. business travel, leisure travel. there's a lot of ancillary businesses connected to this. hotels, rental cars. you can see it in our data, actually. municipal budgets are being hurt by the lack of travel, tourism. sales tax receipts. that is the real big hurdle ahead of us because much of the economy is done pretty -- economy has done pretty remarkably well. restaurants are going to be a challenge, the fitness centers and the bars. is,i think the bigger issue for anyone connected to our travel system, the world is not moving. -- it isuch a logical a psychological issue, really.

it is more getting people comfortable with taking trips, traveling around. that is not going to happen for a while, and it is hard to believe that anybody's got an answer for that right now. jonathan: always great to catch up, especially on payrolls friday. thank you, sir. we are off by 1.28%. the president of the united states testing positive for coronavirus, along with the first lady melania trump. we are going to see much more of this. individuals in and around the president being tested for coronavirus. another one, secretary mnuchin, testing negative for covid-19. that is the treasury secretary, steven mnuchin, testing negative for covid-19. we are waiting for the other headlines to drop as more and more people are tested for this. one person in particular we want to hear from, former vice president joe biden, who was right they up against the president tuesday night in those debates. so far, we have not heard much at all.

tom: a source on twitter suggesting mr. biden will be tested this morning. i know he has michigan trips planned. i am not sure if they will go off. i really want to emphasize, in our wall street time, you and i are at it at 6:00 a.m. right now in washington, it is a city waking up to this shocking news. jonathan: it is a country waking up to this shocking news as well. what we understand from reuters is the president is not incapacitated. he is still working from the residence, alongside mike pence working in his residence separately as well. i think i've only wants this morning talked about the estimates in the bloomberg survey, so here they are. , 859,000 -- i to 8:30, to,000 expected -- ahead

8:30, eight hundred 59,000 expected. four minutes and about 15 seconds away. after those numbers drop, michael gets through them. then we hear from jeff rosenberg of blackrock. on this payrolls friday, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance" live with your top number breaking any second. the data just awaiting drop. they do this all virtually now on the web, so the numbers have not dropped. tom: it is so different than it used to be. >> total payroll employment up by 661,000. it is about 200,000 lower than the estimate. the final estimate was 859,000. the unemployment rate doesn't drop to 7.9% from 8.4 percent. that is even more than forecast. we were expecting a drop to 8.2% for the month.

let's look at the numbers we care about in the details of this. the labor force participation rate -- we want to keep track of how many people are coming back into the labor force. decreased to 61.4%. it appears people dropping out of the economy a little bit. at this point, unable to see openings out there. the number of people who are not in the labor force but want a job -- that is little changed over the month. the number of employed people rises by 275,000. that is where you get the drop in the on employment rate. a big drop in the number of people who are unemployed at this point. -- let me give you another number. in the meantime, average hourly

earnings up 4.7% on the week. average weekly hours, 34.7. know tom loves, that drops from 14.2. tom: i really want to emphasize that this is so changed over the many years. a still clumsy virtual rollout. it was much better with michael mckee hermetically sealed in a building with washington, getting us through this. at the famedking statistical summary, which is a much richer set of statistics -- michael mckee, to me, the great thing here is the revision, which really gives a nice own -- oomph. better unemployed statistics. michael: we get 145,000 additional jobs found, which brings us up to much to 800,000. but that is still lower than the forecast for the month. it does show -- the overall

number, what it shows is the number of people who are in the labor force looking for jobs and were able to find them -- that increased. the number of jobs that were restored is much less. it does suggest the economy slowed down in august. >> this is what a lot of people expected after 26 weeks. the bureau of labor statistics counts people as permanently employed, and those rates are rising. i want to talk about the change in wages. it rose less than expected. does that say anything about the composition of jobs being added versus those being eliminated from the workforce? michael: i have not looked at the breakdown, but my guess is -- we saw a lot of jobs restored collarhigher wage, white kinds of jobs. and fewer jobs created in blue-collar work -- construction, manufacturing. let me check on those here.

the one number i was looking for that i really wanted to take a look at here is job losses that we have seen. the number of people who are on temporary layoff dropped by about 2 million. in the number of people who say they occur -- they are permanent job losers rose by 300,000. still reporting their jobs have gone away in recent months, rather than just furloughed and planning to be able to come back. tom: michael mckee with the honest jobs report. the market is showing elasticity here. they are focused on the president and the first lady's illness. futures negative. dow futures may be a little bit better than the -400 earlier. 28.65 -- youes, worry about the bond market. that is your area. it would be good, john, -- jon, to focus on the mathematics and dynamics of this odd bond market

with the american economy and with the sharks in washington. jonathan: we can bring in jeff rosenberg, blackrock portfolio manager. great to have you with us. your response on the jobs market ? the conversation, -- the conversation i know dominating thing's for blackrock and the fixed income team -- treasuries are not doing a lot yet. why? jeff: they are not doing a lot this morning on payrolls. the headline is a little bit below forecast. it is a very different labor market payroll report. the span of uncertainty here is about 2 million jobs. government is a little bit weaker when you look at private payroll. whichr second question, is the much more salient conversation -- great market volatility is just incredibly dampened. and for good reason. in aed has ushered

tremendous amount of firepower to basically support financial market stability, the aftermath of the coronavirus shock in march and april, and now pivoting to a very clear message of a long run all the way out through the forecast period of zero interest rates, moving qe into the accommodation mode. you are seeing very, very small moves now in the rate here. jonathan: very interesting -- tom: very interesting. futures. what is interesting is to give michael mckee 12 seconds to read the pages of documents. this is a more informed michael mckee. michael: i want to pick up on what jeff said about total government job losses -- to hunt 16,000. if you look at the underlying bybers, education down 231,000. this was expected by a lot of analysts and has really depressed the numbers, and is probably related to seasonal factors. in september, teachers and all

the workers at the schools -- custodians, cooks, bus drivers all go back to work. this time, because of virtual school, many of them did not. the seasonal factors expected a month. -- a bump. that pushed the numbers down below where they should be. the total number of jobs is 651,000 lower than anticipated, but it may not be real, as if rosenberg was saying. >> always good to get the reality checks you bring for us. jeff rosenberg, this is the last employment report until the november 3 election. what is the narrative as you see it, coming from this? just a focus for a second on the payroll, leisure and and it is ais up, reminder -- the schools and the teachers, that is a negative. you are seeing the effects of reopening. you are seeing strong figures

there. that is a reminder that when we are moving through, there is a reopening. it is in starts. i think when you consider today's headline, it is really a reminder. we are seeing these reminders in many areas, many aspects. here in new york city, schools are reopening. some schools that we opened earlier already had to close down. we are dealing with the a secondties of what wave might look like. that is really the big picture story around today's headlines. aggressive andw necessary a policy response in terms of shutdowns on the economy would be. that is weighing on financial markets. it is pushing up expectations. perhaps fiscal policy response that we know is kind of stuck in congress.

perhaps that increases in its likelihood. these are really going to be the themes that dominate the economic outlook and the market. lisa: you were talking about the policy response, potential shutdowns. as we have seen, it is not necessarily an official shutdown. it is people nervous they are going to get the virus. it is human behavior, psychology. this morning, seeing the headline, the most high-profile track and trace going on in the white house and throughout washington, you have to wonder what that does to psychology, how much that is a dampener on the u.s. economic recovery. do you expect, given the diminished expectation for a fiscal response -- you expect the u.s. economy to continue to grow, given the headlines? jeff: i do. it is about the second derivative of that growth in terms of how much negative impact and drag you get. you raise a good point that you don't have to have government-mandated shutdowns to see the effect.

what is important about that effect is it hurts very specific segments of the economy, right? if it is people reacting to the fear, that hurts restaurants. it hurts retail. it hurts leisure and hospitality . in september, we are seeing some recovery, if you don't have a full shutdown, you don't see that necessarily spill over into manufacturing and other parts of if allowed cant continue to practice as they implemented social distancing that alone manufacturing in the era of pandemic. allowed manufacturing in the era of pandemic. tom: futures pretty much unchanged off the shock in washington. michael mckee with further insight. michael: the numbers here that lisa was talking about earlier -- you see an interesting number for construction workers, only 26,000. we have seen such gains in

housing, particularly new home construction. it may be that we are finding a problem in finding workers to do the jobs. up 66,000.ng jobs you look at retail trade. 142,000 jobs. that is significantly lower than the 261,000 last week. but it is a lot of jobs when people talk about the idea of -- you have to wonder if they may be are still trying. morejeff rosenberg, one insight before we get to this new story across this nation. can you explain to me how banks make money in the rosenberg yield space? i don't understand how they are going to jump through that hoop. how are they going to do it? the: it is still all of credit transformation, right? borrowing at lower rates than they are earning on their loans. despite the yield curve being exceptionally flat, bank

financing costs are still very, very low, supported by government policy. you consider the charges in terms of credit and credit banks are finding a net income margin, so they can find probability there. tom: jeff rosenberg, what an odd job day. thank you very much for helping us try to make some sense of some normality. and always thank you to michael mckee as well. it has been a commitment of "bloomberg surveillance" from february -- our first shocks, decided we would frankly come up with one of our listeners named michael bloomberg, we would speak to medical experts. we are going to do that right now. at first, from the johns hopkins university -- >> we know the president is in one of the high risk groups. serious consequences of sars cov 2 infection. we know it is going to be now a process of monitoring.

we want to see how the symptoms progress. we know that when it comes to a few days down the line, there is a turning point where your own immune system begins to drive some of the symptoms that you are feeling, and it is that sort of fulcrum point that will be critical to watch for. mince words.ot that was a chilling woman earlier this morning. a report i believe from reuters earlier -- president resting comfortably at the white house and his full capacity this morning. one weeked to get on as we do with every patient. peter works at yale university and particularly biochemistry at rockefeller university in new york. peter, your thoughts on the first week of when anyone gets this terrible virus. peter: thanks, tom. i do worry about the president and his family. he does have a lot of risk factors that we know about with

his age that everyone has mentioned, and some of his underlying comorbidities. i don't think we know anything about hypertension and diabetes, but his weight is potentially a factor. we don't really know why. there is one theory that a lot of virus receptors inhabit that tissue. that would be an interesting possibility. so he is at high risk. i am extremely worried about how he will do with this virus. he is just somebody that -- he is going to have to be monitored very closely. i would have a pretty low threshold of bringing him to walter reed if he starts to -- tom: you know that is right where i wanted to go. i go back to a wonderful conversation, a very sad conversation with adam boeheim of mount sinai, one of their acclaimed radiologists. i want to say early march. you say the tissue becomes so damaging in this virus.

the president obviously having some of the symptoms. as you point out -- i am in that class as well. what is the path to get to a hospital? for atll the doctor look the white house before he makes a decision to hospitalize a patient? peter: there is a couple of things. one, monitoring his oxygen. we learn from the horrible epidemic in new york in march and april that sometimes you can have pretty low oxygen levels in your blood even without a lot of respiratory distress. this is very interesting. on of the reasons why you have respiratory distress in typical pneumonia is because you are retaining carbon dioxide, not because her oxygen is low. this virus, sometimes you cannot retain carbon dioxide but still have extremely low oxygen levels , right? even without having respiratory distress. that may account for some of the deaths we are seeing. that is one thing to look for. another is remember this is not

just a pulmonary virus like we originally thought. it attacks the vasculature. you are getting blood clots forming. that means pulmonary emboli, strokes, heart attacks. this is why someone like the president is somebody you really want to monitor very closely, his biologic status. think theyou know, i would probably have a low threshold for monitoring him in the hospital where they can monitor a little more closely. lisa: i'm sure his doctors are doing a good, judicious job with that. this headline from "the new york times" saying the virus case so far is mild, simply cold-like symptoms. i know, however, that people will be watching him very closely. the trap and trace name taking hold in washington, d.c., fear pervading anyone who has been in contact with president trump, which raises a question about

when people are most contagious and the path of transmission. can you give us insight on the latest knowledge there? peter: this has been one of the real problems with this virus. it replicates in large amounts in the upper airway -- the mouth, the nose. even in people without symptoms, there are some modeling studies coming out of yale showing that up to 50% of transmission is occurring among asymptomatic individuals. there was a huge paper that came out yesterday in "science" 30 tone, showing that 40-year-olds are continuing huge amounts of virus, in part because they are without symptoms. this is the hope hicks narrative of this. this is something that -- this is why it has been so problematic, a nightmare virus in a sense. you have two groups of people -- those falling very ill and having long-haul injury, and

those walking around shedding a lot of virus with no symptoms. this is why it is so vexing and why we are in the middle of this lisa:. lisa:-- the middle of this. lisa: indeed, it is awful, and we are getting fast-moving headlines. former vice president biden coming out and saying he sends his prayers to the first lady and the president to recover and there is a question as we move forward about the death rate. as we understand more about the directors -- the virus and how much the population may be infected, do we have a revised mortality rate? peter: it is still looking , given the president's condition and comorbidities and age. but we are further along in this epidemic then we were back in april or march, and that has some damages as well. antibodye some new

therapies that are still in the early stages, but they have gone through early clinical testing for safety. that is a possibility to consider. there are the antibodies. more arrows in our quiver than we have had before, like anticoagulant therapy. there is a lot we can do proactively if we are concerned about the president. news and ik at this know you will have a busy day searching for the vaccine we talked about last time. is the great leap of the young people getting the virus and they are ok -- with great respect for ms. hicks or any of the other people younger -- and then somebody old, for example me -- not you, peter, someone old like me -- peter: getting there. tom: someone like the president gets it and it is really serious.

to younger people who think they are immune to this virus. peter: this is a really important point, tom. even though most younger people do well, we are still seeing long-haul injuries and deaths among young people. especially for certain groups. for instance, the cdc came out with an important document this summer. i testified at the congressional caucus this week. 35% of the deaths among hispanic populations in the u.s. occur under the age of 65 -- 40-year-olds, 50-year-olds, 60-year-olds. this virus is robbing us of a lot of mothers and fathers and brothers and sisters. narrative is not well explained to people. tom: peter, one final question -- and i want to go back to your story at yale and rockefeller as well. are we trying to reinvent the wheel?

all this is about if the medicine is frankly the same as it was in the 1980's and the early 1970's. frankly, the medicine is remarkably the same as it was in 1919. peter: i think we have moved beyond that. not as fast as we would like. the market in the pharma industry has not been strong and has not been a big moneymaker for the pharma companies, so it has not been prioritized like it you havellnesses where to take medicine every day. these are short-term treatments and not as lucrative for big pharma companies. but we do have some really exciting antibody therapies. we have some drugs. we could do much better at exploration and r&d. a number of us have been saying we cannot rely on big pharma companies to start doing the r&d and produce these medicines. should we be looking elsewhere and creating nonprofit biotechs?

-- wey piece to this, tom need changes in the business models as much as the science. when young people say they want to go into infectious disease and global health, they are very disappointed when i tell them to get a good mba. we need such innovation in a sustainable business model for these things. tom: peter, thank you so much on this historic day for joining us. he is with baylor college of medicine. the headlines are extraordinary. lisa abramowicz, i want to go with one off the radar which shows a global sense of this. i find the six ordinary. this, we are so -- i find extorting every. we are so advantaged by the global feed. numeral in spain promote chaos -- that from a madrid official. this morning is focused on the president, but worldwide there is a sense of chaos in so many

urban areas. lisa: adding to this chaos is a lack of consistency globally, within nations, and in cities on guidelines, how to adequately protect yourself. wearing a mask, how far away you stay from people -- science emerges, as do attitudes toward it. the top question as we look at president trump and his diagnosis is that attitude, this sentiment. how much is this shifting? honestly, a key issue. tom: it is front and center and i don't know what the shift will be other than the political battle. the election is still on for the first tuesday of november. i believe in the deterioration in the tape. the bond market, futures -58. .ow futures down -471 this is the third time. we are not down to new intraday lows, but nevertheless getting there quickly. get back near where we were on

september 30. not quite there yet. lisa: you see a similar move with treasury yields. ,hey are not doing that much but they are near session lows. we definitely have the president and his diagnosis taking up all the attention this morning. this jobs report, really important. i can't emphasize enough, people are getting discouraged. they are exiting the labor market. they are saying the opportunities are not there. that is what you saw -- permanent unemployment taking up. participation rate going down. this is the last read on the labor market ahead of the election. rankly, the fact that president trump has covid, the fact that washington is nervous, really removes some of the momentum that perhaps the republicans were getting with another stimulus report. we don't really have a sense of that. right now, kind of getting priced out. tom: we saw this with j.p. morgan, the partition of some

companies adapting, getting back to work with small business across america flat on their back. a lot more to come up. futures at -57 right now. dow futures. lisa, we need to say thank you to the global effort starting truly at midnight, coming out of london and all across the continent of europe on this story. lisa: a lot of reaction from international leaders, whether it is boris johnson, vladimir putin wishing him well. people worrying what this means for the united states. a number of officials this morning coming out and saying they have tested negative, which should calm some sense of the line of power in washington, d.c. mike pence testing negative this morning. give reuters credit for the headline that the president rests comfortably at the white house. very clear he is doing his duties today. that is a good thing. we will have much more on this

through this friday and into the weekend. please stay with us on bloomberg radio and on bloomberg television. dr. el-erian coming up. ♪

goodfor -- jonathan: morning. "the countdown to the open" starts now. 30 minutes from the opening bell, futures negative. we begin with a big issue -- the president of the united states testing positive for coronavirus. tonight, we tested positive for covid-19. we will get through this together. the tweet that rocked the market. the white house position saying the president will. out his duties without disruption while recovering. i will keep you updated on any future developments. market attention immediately turning to the upcoming election. president's ability to campaign and what it means for the policy agenda. on the markets desk is kelly lyons. kelly: here is what we know thus far. hope hicks, advisor to president trump, diagnosed with the