♪ caroline: from bloomberg's will headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. romaine: the s and p rising the most in a month. the dollar weakening iia two-week low. stocks closing at near session highs, the most in a month, as president trump is set to leave walter reed hospital this evening. there is still uncertainty about

how is his health, let alone healthy election season will play out. investors are optimistic that a deal will get done for stimulus. any stimulus will be a shot in the arm for the economy. we forget that the jobs report came out and the economic recovery is becoming increasingly shaky. clear-cut joe biden win could be seen as a plus for the economy and stocks. next month for investors is about aging and repairing for the election, first and foremost. joe: people starting to play out the different possibilities. the prospect of not only a bit of a stimulus but much more stimulus.

that would bethat very good for cyclical's. it would boost financials, perhaps energy stocks. that would be less good for some of the big tech companies that have done very well in environments of low real rates. the white line, the financial etf. lots of people pouring into that. this chart could reflect some bets on more stimulus and faster growth. romaine: he also kind of have to look at what has been happening in the yield space. we saw the 30 year yield rise by a tremendous amount. to saw the yield curve start widen out. of -- i guess you can read into this, about the idea that we are in an economic

recovery, they are starting to price in inflation and the effect on the fed and its policy. joe: joining us with more, justina lee on the phone. thank you for joining us. it seems like, when assessing twoelection right now, the possibilities investors are considering are some kind of huge bite and win versus some sort of messy, protracted, unclear election where we don't know the winner for a few weeks. it seems that investors are becoming comfortable with the idea that maybe biden will win and it will not be as dramatic as we think. whetheruestion over democratic or republican policies are better for markets,

ultimately it is a lesson that what markets eight most is uncertainty. maybe they will get a clear-cut bite and win. that means at least you don't get a contested election. if you look at what is happening in the volatility market, we are seeing expectations for wider swing was this month through the end of the year. i think that is a sign that people are worried about not just the election outcome but also a contested election outcome. caroline: i think back to brexit, back to prior u.s. elections. have we learned nothing that polls are not all we should be going on? >> that is a great point. judging by the emails flying into my inbox today, a lot of people are skeptical that the results will be clear-cut as

many are projecting. in volatility markets, currencies and rates. but, at the end of the day, if we look at the margins that vice president biden is seeing, it does seem a little bit wider than may be what we saw in the last election. i think that is given markets more confidence that we can learn something from the polls this time. the idea that a lot of those bets are being made way earlier than what we saw in previous election cycles, though current levels of hedging are not as extreme, or i should say the prices are not as extreme as what we saw in some of the previous elections. futures, in terms of the october, november, and december contract are still

trading above january. what this means investors are expecting wider volatility around that period. usually, the farther out the contracts are, the more uncertain it is. of investors, at least marginally a little bit more certainty after last week's debate. joe: looking at financials versus tech, in theory, if we get a stimulus now, that will boost the economy. inwe get a bigger one january-february, that could boost the economy more, give some love to the much derided cyclical stocks that have gone nowhere. >> that is what jp morgan is saying.

you and i both remember, the number of strategists who have told us over the years that we will see a rotation into value. it never really last. saying,e, jp morgan is if we do get more stimulus, if we do get higher bond yields, if we do get this economic recovery back on track. needou knew -- but you do to see all of those stars aligned. romaine: thank you. some breaking news crossing the wire. mitch mcconnell speaking on the floor of the senate, saying that the senate floor will be in a two-week break. he says there will still be confirmation hearings on amy coney barrett, which goes through the committee process. the full senate will not take place for the next two weeks according to mitch mcconnell.

we will continue focusing on washington, d.c., and focusing on the stimulus talk. talks between treasury secretary steven mnuchin and speaker nancy pelosi are still at an impasse. but some are betting there could be an answer by another administration. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ romaine: today, we are focused on the economic recovery and what a possible new administration in the u.s. will mean for it. the new jobs report out on friday shows improvement. joe: the headline piece of new job creation falling in

september, not as fast as many expected. deceleration. ofyou look at other measures the labor market, it is even worse. the absolute level of employment actually fell, suggesting that while a lot of the recovery was in younger service workers, this is another way of looking at the deeper damage being done to the full-time older workers, etc.. clearly a labor market that arguably needs a lot of help to get back to full employment. thatine: clearly, we know president trump was pretty busy whether it was on twitter or making videos from his hospital bed. one thing he did call for was fiscal stimulus. it will be interesting to see if he can get through things or if we need a new leader entirely to negotiate when we have such impasse. let's get some more thoughts on

the bloomberg opinion columnist and editor of the blog modeled behavior. you drew our retention because of your ahead of the curve viewpoint when you wrote that maybe joe biden could move through this impasse himself. what are the precedents for an upcoming president, if he does manage to win, managing to break through these kind of congressional impasses that we see? >> if you remember the last crisis george bush's treasury secretary designed the tarp plan. but republicans completely rejected it. calledory short, they the big summit, they invited both candidates, john mccain and barack obama. in that meeting, barack obama essentially took over and

decided, this is how we are going to sell the plan, get people on board. he brought enough democrats on board that they got it passed even with the majority of republicans in the house voting against. candidate take a a leading role. this is hank paulson's bill, this is a good will, this is why you should vote for it. i made the point that i think joe biden could play a similar role today. i think you do have moderate republicans who want a deal. but, not enough to get through the senate on republican votes alone. you need republicans and democrats to come together. that is the kind of thing that biden could broker. not the kind of thing trump can broker. trump will not get democrats to agree with moderate republicans. trump does not have enough pull

with conservative republicans to force them. joe: you say that president trump in your view does not have enough pull. he seems to be providing a ton of effort. mnuchin and policy seem to work well together. but, if trump really pushed hard and does what he does well, which is berate senators and people who disagree with him, do you think he could get over the line something bigger or do you think on spending he does not have much purchase? >> he could. if you went all out and called out senators by name. there are some people who would stand up to that, like rand paul probably would not go for that. if cruz would probably move the president started calling about by name on twitter, was really aggressive.

i think, because of his advisors, he has gotten advice that the stimulus is good but it is almost like too late for him. i think that is one of the reasons why he is not pulling out the stops. romaine: we talk about the pillars of this economy. the help that we got out of the cares act and some of the other provisions has more or less expired there is a gap here i guess for a lot of folks who have not had assistance in weeks or months. how much does the stimulus really help them and help the economy? >> i think it is enormous. we have not yet seen sort of the fallout from people not getting their checks. most of the data said that people did try to save some of that.

they have a bit of a cushion. on, if we are trying to make it like into the next session, that will be sometime in february. biden would not be inaugurated until late january. that would be months before anything is done. i thinkeconomy itself, it is extremely important. even for trump, it would still be in his interest. as we get through the month of october, the longest -- the longer people have, without that cash flow, the more they will be feeling. that was not hurting him for a long time. it is starting to hurt a little bit worse now. caroline: the fact that we had fridayh job numbers on

which we kind of all ignored because of the more evident news flow, how much worse could that picture get in the next 30 days as the campaign continues? karl: it is difficult to say. predicting the job numbers has been tough. we just have not seen, in my opinion, the effect of the running out of ui and these set of provisions. they should start out slow and ramp-up really fast. that could conceivably be in the next 30 days. it is hard to predict how much buffer people have but it is reasonable to think we could see a drop off. joe: more on all this next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ caroline: today, we are focused on the economic recovery and what could be done to aid it. the virus landing on the white house's doorstep this past week. his doctor gave an update earlier. >> he may not entirely be out of the woods yet. the team and i agreed that all of our evaluations and most importantly his clinical status support the president's safe return home where he will be surrounded by world-class medical care 20 47. caroline: we see a relatively swift recovery. still out of the woods. what really set with me was the experience that the u.k. headwind boris johnson went into the hospital. the fear and concern that really

that affected the entire u.k. nation. romaine: the official government shutdowns in this country really started unofficially when a lot of folks in march started staying at home. the general fear people have as we are seeing to any official word. a guest on, his name is john authers. i want to bring you into this conversation here. you wrote about i guess essentially what the experience was like when boris johnson was diagnosed, and what some of the reaction was in the u.k. ohn: at this point in his hospitalization, boris was in if icu, and it looks as president trump is going to be getting out.

there may be fewer similarities to their experience in hospital than we thought. is thaty, my reading boris johnson related change british perceptions of the pandemicnd -- of the and did lead to quantifiable how britishabout people behaved the rest of the year compared to other countries like italy or france. this is not looking at regulations or laws, it is looking at mobility data for how much people were moving around, going to restaurants and the office and so on. to have a longer, lockdown.

any activity measure. worrying second wave coming in. the germans are back to above the levels of activity at the beginning of the year. could happen to prime minister. it does have a lot to do with changing collective behavior at the margin. british you why performance has been unusually bad. joe: i remember that day in march when we found out about tom hanks and the nba got canceled and very quickly economic activity in the united states fell off a total cliff until at least april. could we have a little echo of that here?

it probably would not be that intense and dramatic. , anye getting reminded is aof communal space risk. john: i think the chances might producing a little. the president is trying his hardest to change that narrative. that said, i think that is what is possible. you could also throw in the chiefs and patriots game being postponed. that is another high-profile thing to bring to people's attention that the virus is not over. the fact that we are back to tomo and de blasio fighting close down different neighborhoods in brooklyn. , the highest level of

debt it has had at any point in the pandemic. there were little points which together could easily create the tom hanks and nba moment. you are right. caroline: i suppose we can read into why he is trying to he couldbut it seems have decided -- i think that was what was most notable with boris johnson. they had not had the plan in place combat not been able to exert authority at home. then the prime minister was very unwell. you know the difference, he was near death. president trump is still very much trying to downplay this and saying that we should not fear covid. john: yes. he has obviously running a big risk because we know this thing is not linear.

presumably, even though he is the president of the u.s., doctors would not have let him out unless they work fairly confident that would not happen. i think the reason he is going this far out on a limb is that he wants to reassure people and he is confident he can get out of hospital again. very similar are politicians in a lot of ways. but i think the way johnson .layed things up he thanked by name this great rollcall of nurses that looked after him, seemed sheepish and thankful. that is not really a strategy donald trump is ever going to attempt. caroline: that is all from "what'd you miss?" technology" is

next. romaine: this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ emily: this is "bloomberg technology." president trump is scheduled to leave the hospital in about an hour and a half. his doctor says he may not be entirely out of the woods but his condition continues to improve. more white house staffers test positive for