now it's your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. manus: good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. i'm manus cranny. annmarie hordern alongside me in london hq. >> don't let it dominate. don't let it take over your lives. don't let that happen. we have the greatest country in the world. we are going back to work. we are going to be out in front. manus: president trump returns to the white house after

treatment for covid-19. he removed his mask before giving a thumbs up to the cameras. global stocks see modest gains. his return comes as the cdc says coronavirus can spread indoors, in the air, beyond six feet. 34 u.s. states see more virus cases than a month ago. and the chicago fed's charlie evans tells bloomberg he would welcome 2.5% inflation. jay powell and christine lagarde speak today. annmarie: good morning. just gone 6:00 a.m. in the city of london. there is a lot to really digest with what happened overnight in d.c. the president of the united states spent 72 hours at walter reed hospital. he returned to the white house, a quite dramatic return. he walked up to the balcony of the white house, removed his mask, flashed a thumbs up, and

saluting to the cameras. it showed a defiance of the virus, to public health measures. he is eager, you sell what he said at the top of the hour, to project strength in the face of the virus, but it has killed more than 200,000 americans. be theyes, it could three days that redefines the narrative of the last 30 days of the selection. at one juncture he said, maybe i'm immune, i'm feeling good, don't let it dominate your life. john arthur's column is brilliant. --ammad ali arian morant warned yesterday. what trump did was to reinforce the progrowth narrative rather than fright and limit your behavior. it is that sheer, utter imagery of defiance. a couple of breaking news headlines. let's get to them. you've got markets. we are a little bit better bid, aren't we? annmarie: s&p 500, futures to

the upside. we did have equity futures close higher. the nikkei is higher. chinese equities are closed. u.s. 10 year yield, 0.76%. holding onto those gains. a lot of it has to do with the poll numbers. brent crude trading north of $41 a barrel. vigilantes, bond p, bond- wake me ui vigilantes. it is a miller exclusive. deutsche bank. he says he does not realize m&a next year. this is about valuation. this is about driving the valuation. he's very satisfied with the third quarter momentum. the lines are on trading. what else are we seeing? annmarie: he doesn't rule out, nextext year -- out m&a

year. he said the bank has outperformed its own target and he is laser focused on executing on his four year strategic plan. if the bank valuation were to recover, then maybe they would be in a better position. they don't want to be a junior partner in any sort of tie up, do they? manus: no, i think therein lies the point. if you think about the valuations, the market caps, deutsche bank is at $18 billion. have a look at the figureheads of may be the flavor of the deal. in comes ralph hammers. it could be a fascinating period a time next year if it was ubs potential tie up with deutsche bank. but of course nobody wants to be the child in the pram in that deal. we don't want to be the junior

partner. hence the reason why you focus on that line about valuation. let's dig in. he spoke exclusively to matt miller. we see actually an increase in domestic deals, not cross-border. because things like capital market union, banking union still progressing, not there where it should be. and yes, covid for sure accelerated certain developments in the banking industry, we always said in the retail banking scale, therefore we decided to fully integrate two or three years ago where we are well underway. that is happening in other countries, but it is domestic so far. consolidation will come in europe, but cross-border still needs some time. >> every time i talk to a bank

they say banking union is not there yet. but whenever i talked to eu leaders, they say they are free to do cross-border deals. which shoe has to drop first? >> yes, we are free to do cross-border deals, but if the right headwind and certain restrictions are also there that for instance the free flow of liquidity or capital is not there to a degree which really makes such a merger reasonable and constructive, than obviously something still needs to happen. i think we need to wait for further developments, but i also know that regulators and governors well understand this issue and i'm confident that we will see progress on the banking markets inside. i know that the german finance minister is working hard on this. so that will come, but for the time being, my view is that you

would rather see more domestic mergers before cross-border mergers are happening. >> and you have enough on your plate already, the most audacious transformation plan deutsche bank has seen in decades. does that mean you rule out for now any acquisitions? >> look, the focus of deutsche bank is to find transformation. i'm more than focused on this one. i would say we are laser focused on this one and the success over the last 15 months i think prove our point that this transformation was and is the right one for the bank and therefore this has top priority and my full management attention. that meant does exactly? when is this transformation going to be at a point when you can finally start to consider some bigger deals? saidrst of all, we always 2019 and 20 kind of the key years, the second half of 2019

and that full year of 2020. we have to focus full on transformation. at the end of the second quarter, we have 75% of our transformation costs already booked and we made good progress in q3. 2019 and 2020 are the key of the transformation. certain items still to come in 2021. key financial targets for year 2022. it is a 3-4 year transformation. the first two years are key. so far, we have been very successful with that, hence this management focus needs to continue. >> when you look beyond that and you hear reports in the financial boulevard press about the dream mergers, do you think it is possible deutsche bank could be part of a big deal? in generalthink consolidation must happen in europe. we need to be competitive also with the u.s. banks from a size

point of view. look what they are investing into technology. you need a certain size for that. therefore, the general theme of consolidation is something europe will see. for us, it is important we are not a junior partner. that means that we first have to sustainably increase our profitability. bank's ceoeutsche speaking exclusively to bloomberg's matt miller. partner.not a junior if they were to get a share price recovery and return to profitability, potentially a merger on the table. manus: yes, but with the regulators really right at it in terms of, what would happen to perhaps the retail network? what would happen to the investment bank? it would be slightly complementary. speak to some regulators according to the sources we

spoke to. it will be all down to the regulators. hopefully, we will catch him a little bit later on. annmarie: more of that interview through european programming. let's get to the first word news with laura wright. laura: good morning, the coronavirus can spread through the air to people more than six feet away from an infectious person. that is the latest guidance from the cdc. the agency says this method of transmission is uncommon and has to be in a space with poor ventilation, but it raises new challenges for safe the reopening businesses and schools. frank ellison is on course to join the ecb executive board. the 50-year-old supervision official was picked yesterday, the sole candidate to replace a member of the top policy team. his nomination means the executive board won't achieve gender balance, which leads to contentious moments in the eu parliament.

boris johnson seeks to get his domestic agenda back on course. speaking at the conservative party conference he said renewable energy can help drive the recovery. president trump's campaign manager says he intends to be ready to debate joe biden next week. he is also signaling the president want to agree to a moderator able to mute the candidates when their time has expired, saying it puts too much power in the hands of the media. descended intoe chaos and was marred by interruptions. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. manus: laura, thank. coming up on the show, president trump returns to the white house, telling people not to fear the virus, despite killing over 200,000 americans.

we discussed. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." president donald trump returned to the white house after three days of treatment for covid-19 at walter reed hospital. in a video released shortly after, he urged americans not to be afraid of the virus. take a listen. >> don't let it dominate, don't let it take over your lives, don't let that happen. we are the greatest country in the world. we are going to back to work. we are going to be out front. annmarie: let's get more with bloomberg's senior editor. thank you for joining us. president trump has left walter reed medical center, he returns to the white house, although one of his doctors has said the

president at the moment may not entirely be out of the woods. what is next on his recovery plan? >> yes, there is still more time to recover from this. he is not over covid. he has it still at this moment, he has sort of just been moved from the hospital to the white house. the extra precautions being taken, the white house is limiting the number of staff who can get in physical proximity to the president. when people do, they will have to wear personal protective equipment. there are some changes, but this white house and the campaign are very much signaling that the president plans for this to be a little bit of business as usual. the campaign said trump does plan to go to the next debate next week, that he plans to be there, he wants to get back to the campaign trail as soon as humanly possible. we have even started seeing some trump allies go on tv and say

now trump has first-hand experience with the virus and knows better than anybody that you can't about two it, you have to get on with life. see how itlet's plays out at the polls and at the ballot box. america is already voting. our senior editor for bloomberg. our guest host is an investment advisor at bank of singapore. a triumphant, victorious, defiant, whatever were you would like to choose. after three days in hospital. the polls have biden ahead. or is trust the polls this kind of grandstanding, do you think this is desperation or a show of strength? >> first of all, going by the market reaction, if anything he

should be reading the stock exchange tomorrow morning. we saw a positive sponsor to the equity markets yesterday. we are maintaining an approach, our base case scenario revolves around two things. we have a biden when, which is looking likely, and the congress, getting democrats, if that goes. on the other hand, we see a status quo with trump getting reelected, but with a split congress. the recent show of bravado is good for the markets. annmarie: as you call it, a show of bravado. do you think this will materially help the president?

or is this something that you think will turn americans off given the defiance in the face of the virus? interesting point that you mention, but one of the tailwinds we have been mentioning is the tailwind regarding a contested election result. given president trump's recent comments as early as a couple of weeks ago given his lack of belief and hide out, i think the recent events could be something that could go in his favor. now that trump has the chance to say he has experienced this firsthand, this might appeal to some of his supporters quite strongly that he has come out of this in a matter of days and as a responsible as the drive might have been, taking his mask right off for the photo op, but it

would definitely appeal to some of his supporters for sure. election --ontested won't even say what is the hedge in that. the yield curve is moving. we have this momentum, don't we? we have the steepeners. is that it belief in the fiscal narrative? a belief in growth, a belief in biden, or are we seeing something a little bit more aspicious, which is perhaps touch of bond vigilante is, the long end? >> it is a mix of both. we had been expecting a sharpening of the yield curve. we also believe that we do expect a steepening of the yield curve.

i do think it is a mix of both. if you go through the fiscal response from the latest words of mitch mcconnell, saying i think we are going to get an outcome closer, and nancy pelosi is urgency to get more fiscal response, it could be a mix of both. annmarie: talking about fiscal yesterday in an interview with michael mckee, we will talk more about that and jay powell will be speaking today, so the markets going to be tuning into what he has to say. i have to ask, good question on what is going on in the yield curve, do you think we can break out of this 80 basis points? we are calling for that. forecast not significantly away from where we are trading right now, but we do expect it to be around 0.9%. we do expect it to break from that.

move has taken us by surprise. we have been pretty adamant about seeing the 0.9% and for the 30-year to be trading around 1.5%, almost 0.25 percent higher than what it is trading at right now. manus: i know that you are quite bullish on the one. -- trumpink it needs doubling down on china after his own experience with covid -- and perhaps that allows more toleration in the yuan to strengthen? they have to do something to keep him off of their back in these last 30 days, don't they? ali: absolutely. this is something i was looking for in the first debate, as well. i was rather surprised there was no mention of the china or russia in detail, as expected. that was reflected in the price

movements for the you want and the ruble -- yuan and the ruble. he was very reluctant calling at the coronavirus when addressing the press. i'm sure he had other names in mind. is a lot of other fundamentally strong elements going in favor for the you in resulting in this deep rally. i would break it down into three main reasons. the first when i have is the strong support we have seen in the chinese government bonds. to just give perspective to the viewers, the chinese 10-year trading close to 3%. , so that is yield one thing. inclusionhing is the into the ftse world government bond index. that is expected to bring in

quite a bit of flows. lastly, as a diversifier. this will go is a very good diversifier as well. i see a very strong case. ok, bullish call. lik stays with us. coming up, the rba left rates unchanged. a look at what really this means for easing going forward. this is bloomberg. ♪

europe.t is daybreak

down under, the rba key rates and government bond yield unchanged. it is going to be a bumpy ride for us all. do youe saly -- ♪ remember? ♪ "september." [laughter] rememberctually september. levens turnedy the market in and said to saying he thought there would be a rate cut, then he said today would be all about the federal budget, which it was. bill evans did push out that call to november of the yield curve can troll and the cash trade -- control and that cash trade. they think a november you will see if 15 basis point cut to the cash rate to 10 basis points and

also one year bond yield target and also another term lending facility as well. this is being priced into markets when you have a look at my chart as well. a lot of economists out there saying it is going to be about bond purchases, as well. that wetimate the fact will necessarily see a rate cut. he said there could be more bond purchases, but one thing is for sure, interest rates are going to remain low into 2023. the economists saying that is great news for the business sector and homebuyers. annmarie: that was an incredible pickup. you remember september, pushing it to november. thanks for playing along. coming up, you hear from our exclusive interview with fed president charles evans. he spoke about inflation and of course fiscal -- fiscal, fiscal, fiscal. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. good morning. this is daybreak europe. here are today's top stories. >> don't let it dominate, don't let it take over your lives, don't let that happen. we are the greatest country in the world. we are going back to work, we are going to be out front. annmarie: president trump returns to the white house after treatment for covid-19. he removed his mask before

giving a thumbs up and salute to the cameras. as president's return comes the cdc says the coronavirus can spread indoors in the air beyond six feet. 34 u.s. states see more virus cases than a month ago. ceo tellsank's bloomberg exclusively it could consider, day earlier next year but with one caveat. >> for us, it is important that we are not a junior partner. that means that we first have to sustainably increase our profitability. nobody ever wants to be the junior partner, do they, when it comes to banking ceos. christian saying in an exclusive interview with matt miller. it is about creating a value proposition where he doesn't have to be the little brother, but of course, who could be the daddy? that is the question. is it ubs? it would be a very german

affair. look at some of the names. coming to the end of one of the most illustrious 10 years in banking. be a very german affair. annmarie: they do prefer a ubs tie up. meet lastre set to year, manus. as you say, this is really pulling together a list of what the tie up could be about european banking consolidation. what all the banking analysts say is regulation. how does this go forward due to regulations and the banking they said it would be no m&a until they get profitability up and share price recovers. manus: absolutely.

very satisfied with the momentum in the period. they are going to have a hybrid model work from home going forward. let's have a quick check on the markets. release of the curve steepeners, the equity markets. day, i think. , the resplendent arrival on the balcony, walking up the steps, which is very much about health. john arthur said it is about keeping the dream alive in terms of keeping the economy open. that was the message. you have a number of different narratives. deal?there be a fiscal do you believe joe biden would actually push the curve steeper? in terms of what he could do?

we build on that narrative, 8% of the oil and gas production. so, that is the state of play on the markets. president donald trump returned to the white house after three days of treatment for covid-19. he said don't let the virus take over your life. take a listen. >> i stood out front. i land. nobody that is a leader would not do what i did. i know there is a risk, there is a danger, but that is ok. now i'm better and maybe i'm immune. i don't know. let's get the latest. i know it is 1:30 where you are. president trump really hope to accomplish with this

dramatic turn to the white house? is this all politics right now? >> that is hard to say. a good part of it is. returnsing his dramatic from the hospital on this splendid autumn evening by to revive his flagging campaign. he presents himself as a leader. he is metaphorically speaking in front of the army. and ready recovered to get back into the fray. he says he is going to resume campaigning and plans to be at with joe biden next thursday. whether he can do that remains to be seen. there are lingering students about his health and the course of the illness. as the president

himself said, no other leader would do what i did. i know there is a risk, i know there is danger, maybe i'm immune. could be the defining moment of this campaign. thank you for staying awake to cover the latest breaking news. from capitol hill to the central bank of the world, the federal reserve speaks to bloomberg and the fed president of chicago charlie evans says he welcomes 2.5% inflation in the u.s. evans spoke exclusively to mike mckee and bloomberg, adding more fiscal stimulus is needed. think the economic recovery has been pretty good. it has been a little quicker than i was expecting back in june when i submitted a forecast.

i had been quite nervous about, there is a normal recovery when we get back to the level we were before this. sometime in 2022, may be. though the covid caseloads have been very high in the arrests, the deaths of been around 200,000 more. last importance report, how much more quickly we recover after this, but i think we are trying to figure out where the labor market is going to settle out, how much improvement we are going to get in terms of bouncing back before we are closed down and how much recessionary dynamics we are going to be faced with next year? i do think inflation is going to be weak.

i don't think it is likely to be persistent, but we will have to see. you said you anticipated more fiscal stimulus. can you give us a picture of what we would see if we don't provide additional stimulus in the months to come? i am hopeful there will be more fiscal stimulus. that does have the forecast and that could reduce aggregate demand by quite a lot and that means the road back in terms of employment is going to be a lot harder. i can't begin to guess how this is going to work out. >> if we don't get stimulus and the economy is slowing, is there anything more the fed can do? or with interest rates at zero have you pretty much done what we are going to pay

attention to what the labor market is, how the economy is growing, where the labor market is. at the moment, we are still trying to figure out where the recovery is going to stabilize in terms of what normal recessionary dynamics might look like. if we were to get additional stimulus, if we were to see continued recovery, if we got the unemployment rate down to 5.5 cent next year, those are circumstances where the fed -- where we are in the ballpark of what we can deal with. moving towardd be our 2% objective and we could be improving. i think we are going to have lower for longer interest rates. it will probably be uncomfortable for many people. we just need to get inflation up to 2% and beyond. we need to ensure that the labor market continues to improve.

would bepport extraordinarily welcomed. continued business investment, businesses deciding they have figured out how to grow, it is going to have to play out in the virus spread is going to have to continue to be important. annmarie: mike mckee speaking exclusively with fed president charles evans. li malik still with us. banging the drum on fiscal support. where does stimulus in the united states play into your thinking right now? do you have it priced in? ali: this is one thing the markets have been very keenly looking forward to. comments, we heard are seeing the market performance.

it, we are for looking forward to it. we do expect it, but the timing around it is unclear, whether it will happen after the elections are done or before, but we are definitely advising clients to remain equal weight invested in equities and emerging-market high yields. manus: we will circle back to evans in just a moment. i see a headline overnight from the imf extending to 28 countries for another six months. these are low income countries. ems plays into the narrative, doesn't it? just build that out for me in terms of em exposure. pointhat is a very good and a critical point. if you look at some of the emerging market countries that have been under a lot of stress. the first couple names that come

to mind where the bonds were trading not long ago. with definitely a concern some of the countries. that were zero dollar-denominated were perfectly ok with most of them. i say that for multiple reasons. high-yield default rates have been relatively low going into the pandemic. are developed markets, they relatively low from what they used to be. fundamentally, rebalancing has improved, corporate governance has improved. dollar, whicher is finally seeming to pan out is good for emerging-market bonds and we remain bullish. alis: ok, elimelech -- malik stays with us.

let's get to first word news headlines with laura wright. laura: coronavirus is spreading again across most of the u.s. and experts are warning school reopening some colder weather may cause the situation to deteriorate. 34 states are seeing more cases than they did a month ago. new york city is closing schools in virus hotspots, but the pace of businesses is unclear. memberng to a republican who is critical of the recommendation, the panel wants to block companies from owning marketplaces and selling their own products on them. the report was this week and we have been told that it has been pushed back. spain may extend wage support beyond january. they say madrid is ready to reevaluate the situation, but a lot will depend on a vaccine and an extension of the program could protect hundreds of thousands of at-risk jobs. spain has one of the region's

highest unemployment rates. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. annmarie: thank you. coming up, moving on. the economic recovery in china will be tested as millions travel for golden week holidays. more on that and more em coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." just some breaking news. means to fight with they call creeping takeover. ng says itsfter

board of directors has accepted the offer to buy the nearly 30% stake. one thing they do this morning and the headlines say that the stake purchase was in a hostile manner. clearly they don't want this to go through. indeed. i think that is definitely fighting words. annmarie: certainly. we also have news on golden week , a holiday in china. china's economy seems to be moving past the coronavirus. industry isourism expected to lose at least one point $2 trillion in 2020. china is the only g20 country in pace to expand this year. back with us, ali malik from the bank of singapore.

we know you like emerging markets and we know you like high-yield debt. ,e know your call on the yuan as well. quite bullish when you point east. one thing you like as well as energy. ali: energy, we have been focusing on the equity market space and also through the fixed income space predominantly through the u.s. equity markets. some of the bigger players. levelsee oil from these as a response to a multitude of things. is going to be dictated by the supply-side of things. hearing from clients and investors firsthand that it is at record levels. we expected to remain at record levels. we did hear it from two

countries that were not going by the output data they were supposed to. there have been strict measures that were taken since. we do expect stronger compliance. there has been a significant reduction in new wells and drilling, which we think will be supportive of new oil prices. we expect wti crude to trade about $46 a barrel and we see brent at $50 a barrel. energy andullish on also if you look at how the -- the whole of the year, i think it does make for very compelling trading at these levels. is quite a $46 bullish call on oil. that plays into perhaps a resurgence of growth in 2021. will that skew your equity exposure? if you look at the inventory from china, it is a country that

is reopening, traveling, which has had their autoshow. for 2021, do you want more asia europe?isk relative to does that skew you for china? it does.lutely while we remain neutral on our equity exposure across the areon, but in asia, we bullish on chinese equities, hong kong equities, and singapore equities. the recent news flow that has , this focus and emphasis on self-reliance and local demand. we definitely do see a very

strong interest in chinese equities from investors. thank you very much. our guest host this morning on china and the oil market risk. consolidation, consideration. deutsche bank could consider, day early next year. more conversation with the ceo and matt miller. that is on the way. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." watching offer plenty of central-bank action. ecb president christine lagarde

will take part in a video conference on economic and monetary union. her speech comes after european finance ministers picked frank eldon to join her team. manus: federal reserve chair jay powell will speak at the national association for business economics meeting. will he make another plea for more fiscal stimulus? at 1:00 a.m. tomorrow, the boj governor kuroda will address the nabe conference. deutsche bank could consider m&a as early as next year if its profitability and share price recover according to the ceo. he told bloomberg that his focus is on the lender's restructuring. >> the focus of deutsche bank is clearly defined by transformation. more than focused on this one. i would even say we are laser

focused. the success of the last 15 months prove our point that this transformation was and is the right one for the bank and this whatp priority and that is my full management attention is on. manus: matt miller, the man who sat down with him, the whole thing, very exciting -- what do you think, matt, what you got from him is that it is about execution -- and i don't want to be the small partner in any deal that we do. how much momentum is there really to do a deal? morning. >> good morning to both of you. yes, i think there is a lot more momentum post covid for european bank consolidation then there was three covid. the problem still as he told me yesterday and many other banks have told me recently via satellite, not an percent, of or's, that the european banking

union still has not been completed to the point they would like to see it before they can really do cross-border mergers. of course, you see a lot of domestic action, particularly in spain of late. more talk of domestic activity in france, even part of the wishlist is crosstown rival, but the cross-border stuff they said is much more difficult and still a little bit further off. annmarie: matt, he also said he is laser focused on his restructuring plan. deutsche bank trading just over seven dollars -- euros, excuse me. matt will take you away at the open. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we do have futures moving to the upside. there is really a lot to digest. the president of the united states back at the white house. jay powell will speak later today. manus: absolutely.

what will he lean into? the fiscal scenario? smattering a light of yield curve control. ♪ so you're a small business,

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anna: welcome to bloomberg markets, "the european open." matt: good morning. the markets say keep the gains coming. stocks point higher with optimism growing over u.s. stimulus and president trump's covid-19 recovery. here are your top headlines from the terminal.