>> people don't like the fact that they don't know what their next 3, 6 months are going to be like. >> there could be a debt, but people want to come in and buy that debt. >> there has to be more fiscal stimulus. the markets are expecting that. >> markets are going to forge the government to act here -- to force the government to act here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. onoomberg surveillance" bloomberg radio, bloomberg television worldwide. thrilled you are with us across this nation.

the news flow absolutely extraordinary. i want to get to the markets in a moment. the president tweeting. we've got two longer tweets today. both tweets say get out and vote. we will leave it at that. i am sure we will hear much more from a president in the white house today, masked or massless, as well. i want to go to it is clearly the market story, and a nice recovery here with yields getting right back to the enthusiasm of yesterday. jonathan: i think the three issues you've got to look at, one is the improving health of the president, according to his doctors. another is the momentum. three if the prospect that we don't have a contested outcome. going off of the national polls, and i know the risks around that, this is a snapshot of where things are, not a production of where they will be. the snapshot right now, 57%-40

1%, according to the poll yesterday. cnn, the 57% being joe biden, and 41% being donald trump, that poll conducted from october 4. that is important because we have been waiting -- from october 1 to october 4. that is important because we have been waiting to see what the polls would do after the president was diagnosed with covid 19. it is a big number, and it doesn't look pretty. adults in that poll from cnn. all of this mixed together. we haven't talked about it this morning. the update on the stimulus. in my right, there isn't an update? lisa: well, they are talking, and they continue talking about talking and talking some more. tom: it is like brexit. lisa: it is our brexit, that is

correct. that is a very accurate characterization. stopat point do markets catering to every head fake? both sides softening on president trump being ill, that was one thing driving sentiment. jon was saying possibly a decisive election would give some fuel to this risk on feel. regardless, i will say it is broad, and you are seeing it in credit. people filing in. there's a thought that you are closer to the other side, even though the virus counts are getting worse in many places. a lot of contradictory crosswinds here. the volatility not yet completely dead. tom: jon ferro, i should have loaded the boat in march. of course, i didn't. but come on, we are at dow vix00, spx 3408, and the really shows that uncertainty out there, doesn't it?

28.34. jonathan: the volatility looking out into the year-end, that was all about this contested election idea. for me, i keep going back to this difference between squeezing positions and having a policy of it that drives durable change. i think the polls of the last couple of days starting to squeeze some of those positions at the long end of the treasury curve, elsewhere in the equity market, driving that internal rotation, it is only when you wake up november 4 that you really start to appreciate policy. four years ago, many people didn't anticipate that the president would be donald trump. they also didn't and as bait the outcome of the president being donald trump, which was a market that ripped. it took about five minutes for people to get their heads around it. i think it is still too early to make a decision with any conviction what a potential biden presidency would mean for this market over the long term. we could sit here and say with conviction it will squeeze positions because this market is positioned for a contested

election, but to say it will mean anything else, i think that is too difficult still. tom: oil printing $40 a barrel. brent crude, $42.07. $1923 anhree dollars, ounce. you've got to be in the markets to plan the markets, and bob doll of nuveen has done that. how do you stay here with all of this uncertainty? bob: you recognize that the underlying fundamentals are in a reflationary period. you all summed it up. amazingbout to get third-quarter gdp. i know that is history. good third-quarter earnings. reasonable outlook for the quarter, fiscal policy package or not. we are seeing precious metals, industrial commodities moving up. obviously the stock market

cyclicals are beginning to do a little bit better. even the bond market is waking up to say inflation is not going to be zero forever. jonathan: what do you make of the relative story right now between europe and the united states? three months ago, the happy talk around europe was almost deafening, and you don't hear it much now. it is in the u.s. robert: no question about it. our economy came back faster because our policy mix was gargantuan and fast. you can't find another period in history when monetary and fiscal policy was this quick and aggressive, and that has buoyed our economy out of what could have been a longer and deeper recession, and that is why the u.s. is doing well. jonathan: i since where you want to be, the united states over potentially europe. let's talk about where in the united states. yesterday we saw that internal rotation, and the likes of j.p.

morgan and goldman sachs are talking about that. why do we have a sustainable move there, and not just the position squeeze? robert: there is some position squeeze think on, no question. i thing it is a both and. if you have been successful in equities, we had technology in health care and not many small stocks, not many cyclicals until the last few weeks. example inrun for cyclicals yesterday. today might be the tech stocks coming on again. we had this rotation with an upward trend that is going to continue. i like some of the consumer cyclical names. best buy, lowe's, target, even some of the homebuilders. i'm not giving up on health care. i think there's good news there regardless of who gets elected. those are the places i would camp out. where's the cash flow? can you reinvest for some growth? are you doing well and making money and cash flow in an

environment that is post coronavirus? lisa: the most read story on the bloomberg yesterday had to do with wall street analysts saying that he biden when could be able case -- a biden win could be a bull case for equities. do you adhere to this narrative that a democrat sweep would be positive for markets? robert: probably initially because we would get a fiscal policy spending that will buoy the economy further, probably than the election of donald trump, especially if it is a mixed congress in that sense. longer-term, you're going to have tax increases, deregulation. -- tax increases, reregulation. that is not positive for the markets. you're getting that boost from some fiscal policy spending, and then people will wake up and say, not so fast. lisa: this has to do

particularly with big tech stocks because not only do you have increasing antitrust sentiment that is growing certainly among the democratic party in washington, but the top tax changes that joe biden would implement would disproportionally hit big tech companies, according to analysis by bank of america. would you go underweight tech in a democrat sweep? robert: i would probably have less in a democrat sweep than i would if the president is reelected. but i wouldn't go underweight. the underlying growth is so powerful. covid was a positive for the tech sector. we are going to have under either administration continued queries of those companies. the government wants more money from these companies, and that will hurt the multiples. i'm not sure it is going to hurt the earnings. jonathan: bob, great to catch up, sir.

the president of the united states active on twitter in the last hour. here's one of them. a tweet on flu season coming up. i will wait just a part of it. "are we going to close down our country? no. we have learned to live with it, just like we are learning to live with covid, and most populations far less lethal." let's put this together with the pole we had from cnn just a few hours ago. what was interesting is that the president was not losing ground that he was holding to joe biden. joe biden was taking it from elsewhere. what is intriguing is that to support the president is not gaining from new areas that he needs to tap into. i think comments like that resonate with this base. they won't resonate with the areas of the demographic elsewhere that he needs to be tapping into and needs to be winning. tom: this is a good, important observation. what i was suggest in the conversations we are having on radio and tv, it is simple.

all of the experts are telling us he is just simply going to his base. i don't see in any of the activity of the last four or five days, as the calendar becomes a blur, i don't see any indication he's going to the marginal voter. jonathan: to quote cnn, "the president does not seem to have made in the gains among the attract to close on biden's outstanding lead." i think that snapshot will resonate with a lot of people. tom: did x three or four poles, and again, the battleground state polls, i think we need 10 polls now just to see where the landscape is. i am going to suggest it is not 57%, 41%, but nevertheless, a gap.s a cap -- a gap is a jonathan: your price action shaping up as follows. equity futures positive about

0.1%. i know equities got a lift monday, but let's face it, for anyone not buried in stock land. it is about the bond market, tom keene. 0.70% is your yield on the 10 year. tom: i can't do it. jonathan: any commentary on crude? 4gl or handle. -- $40 handle. you like that? a touch of positioning around foreign-exchange. do you like that? tom: i don't know. jonathan: we could do this all day. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump and his allies look to capitalize on his release from the hospital. that is painting his return to the white house as a metaphor for his strength a month before the election. meanwhile, the president is pointing to his own experience to employer americans not to fear the coronavirus. a new cnn poll shows joe biden's

lead over president trump has expanded to 57% of likely voters. 41% back the president. the pole was conducted entirely after last tuesday's debate and mostly after the president's coronavirus infection was made public. the european union is ready to call boris johnson's bluff. any have no plans to offer concessions to the u.k. premised minister,. prime offering to walk away if he doesn't get what he wants. lunch fore another space link. the launches have faced a bride he of problems -- the launches have faced a variety of problems. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: i stood out front. i led. one who is a leader

would not do what i did. i know there is a risk, and that is ok. now i am better. i might be immune. i don't know. jonathan: the president out of hospital and checking back into the white house. from london and new york, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your price action shaping up as follows. equity futures on the s&p 500 bounceback, up 0.1%. in foreign-exchange, eurodollar almost $1.18. we approach that level at about $1.1796. stronger euro, slightly weaker dollar on the currency pair. on the 10 year, we approach 80 basis points. chairman powell very much and focus. data so far ok this week. had a pause three or four hours ago, and we have really recovered nicely again. up, 23.84.the vix

what we try to do is avoid the punditry and talk to people with skill sets of our politics, of our economy, and of the nation as well. edward mills is the washington policy analyst at raymond james. that doesn't describe his service to the nation as staff for the house financial services committee and working with a congresswoman for new york city over the years. the punditry is being buffeted around by the virus, by the president, by the debate performance and all the rest. do you discern a clear policy of trump or a clear policy of biden, or does that remain after the election? edward: i think we have been somewhat devoid of some of the policy discussions partly because, as you have highlighted , this for donald trump is about energizing his base.

so any action he comes out with is trying to see if he can get someone who supported him in 2016 that did not show up to come and show up here in 2020. for the biden campaign, but i have seen is that they want this to be a referendum on trump. they don't wanted to be a choice between the two candidacies because when it is a referendum on trump, that is where they are the strongest politically. trump would like to make it a choice between the two and tie some of the most unpopular policies of the democratic party to biden, but biden has so far largely ignored getting into the details, so it does not turn into that choice election. jonathan: we see that in the polls, don't we? that the base for the president has been energized. it has been resilient for a long time. is it enough? ed: i don't know yet. if you go on polls alone, you

would say clearly that it is not enough. i think if you are looking at the data, say and what of the swing states, the state of wisconsin, a state that donald trump won by fewer than 25,000 votes, you look at where is his base in wisconsin, and you recognize that where he did the strongest were white working-class male, while there are over 500,000 in that demographic in wisconsin that did not vote last time. if donald trump has a chance of winning this, once again it would be some sort of state-level polling error in the turnout metrics we are using are incorrect. i think they have decided that is their best chance of winning. if he is successful or not, i think there is a very small margin of error there, and i think it is a much more difficult task than trying to pick up the voters in the middle. but it is may be an indication

of how few undecided voters there are at this point. lisa: as tom and jon were talking about this morning, there is a lot of focus on that point caphowing a 16% between vice president biden and president trump. do you see the likelihood of a democrat sweep come? ? november ed: we have published comea democratic -- sweep november? ed: we have published that a democratic sweep is most likely. at a point in time where there has been a big news event, i kind of take it as an indication of may be a spot in time. people will look back four years ago, immediately after the access hollywood tapes, and there were some polls that donald trump was down 14

percentage points, so we still need to maintain the difference between the national polls, a difference between what happens aftershock events, and recognize that this is 2020. this a lot still left to happen between now and election day. it does seem to be kind of clear where this election has been trending, but that does not mean that is the result. tom: you are may be more qualified than anyone on the planet to describe a biden presidency from the 12th congressional district of new york to the 14th congressional , ofrict, which is maloney 27 years of service, and aoc up a little bit north of their. and payn be a president homage to the liberal left as well as the middle ground, or is that a pipedream? going to bethere is

a lot of tension if he wins between various camps in the democratic party. i think there is going to be some effort to have unification. you saw that already with adding aoc and john kerry to a climate agenda, having an agreement between the sanders campaign and the biden campaign on a whole host of issues. he is someone who has been in d.c. for 47 years. compromise used to be something that won you something elections. detriment poe is a litically. i think biden is probably going to focus most on the new senators who get elected, and some of the more moderate senators, being what they can get and what is the art of the possible because perfect can't be the enemy of the good, or else you don't get anything done. jonathan: ed mills, great to catch up with you.

ed mills, policy analyst at raymond james. in the coming days, we do focus a bit more on policy, specifically with the debate, the current vice president and potential future vice president tomorrow evening. and if we get the debate in miami between the presidential candidates, a hope that can be a policy focus because it was severely lacking in the last one. tom: we will find out in the next couple of hours how this debate in miami will go. the zeitgeist is virtual debate in the president doesn't want a mute button. there is still a fair amount of time to figure out how to get through october 15. jonathan: four weeks away from that election, just around the corner. this tuesday morning, we look a little something like this. the s&p up four. we advanced about 0.1%.

intoman powell going chairman lagarde speaking at the ecb later today. from london and new york, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,

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jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. on this tuesday, october 6, futures are up four point. with the economic data in america, here is michael mckee. michael: u.s. trade deficit out for the month of august. another new record deficit of $67.1 billion. a little bit of a drag on third-quarter growth even though overall it is reasonably good. exports up by 2.2% during the $171.9 billion. imports up. many more imports than exports

for the u.s. the trade deficit widened again. that is a problem for donald trump if anyone gets around to talking about the economy and the debates. he promised to get rid of the trade deficit and get rid of the trade deficit with china. mike, addressed the doom and gloom crew looking at this with dollar weaker on dxy. that says theew world is coming to an end and the only solution is dollar appreciation. michael: we spend more --michael: we spent more than we taken. 2017 when thedden tax cuts were put in place. you will have a wider trade deficit on a regular basis. you have the fed with a little bit tighter policy. a little tighter policy than they have in europe and japan where they have negative rates.

we are attracting capital from overseas, creating the trade deficit. it widens. lisa: i want to go into something you mentioned, the trade deficit the u.s. has with china is deepening. that?s the anatomy of is the u.s. importing pbe and other medical equipment from china and not exporting as much? how far away away from the targets and permitted? michael: quite a bit away's away from it. you had a chart prepared that showed we are halfway there to what they said they would buy. we are three quarters of the way through the year. the chinese are a long way from living up to the phase one trade deal. a lot of that has to do with the pandemic and demand in china is down. they don't need as much from the united states. they are also the political aspects. are they not buying because they don't like what donald trump has been doing? that is hard to tease out. it can be measured in both

the end and dollars -- of the year. they still have time. a lot of trade experts are saying they will not make it. tom: my chart of the year two years ago was the twin deficits, from decades ago. we are barely old enough to remember that. we have exploded out a fiscal deficit in trade deficit to something that to you and me and president reagan is unimaginable. feel we canmists rebound from this horrific twin deficit? problem?is it a real so far it has not been proving to be a real problem. over time, yes, we can rebound from that. no one expected a burgett surplus in the late 1990's but we did. if the right policies are adopted, you can get there. but the hole is so much deeper.

tom: thank you so much, michael mckee. with his timely interview yesterday with mr. evans of chicago. thomas costerg is joining us. let me cut to the chase. that is simply, does all this discussion matter? a lot of people dismiss it. i am from the old school. no, i will not. does this burgeoning deficit matter? thomas: there is definitely a political element to that. we know donald trump did promise to cut the deficit. we are seeing is reaching record highs. from that angle, it's important. i don't think it is really a factor for the u.s. dollar. it is much more driven by global growth and the difference between global growth and u.s. growth, as well as the differential interest rates.

what we are seeing is the fed is not cutting rates to zero. all countries are more or less at zero right now. that is probably a headwind to the dollar going forward. lisa: do you think the market right now is overpricing or underpricing the u.s. recovery? thomas: well, it is hard to say. i think the recovery is more fragile than widely thought. it depends on fiscal stimulus. what you are seeing is the data seems to be ebbing. if you look at jobless claims, spending, income, the u.s. economy needs a new fiscal stimulus. there is a high uncertainty about that. the problem is the u.s. economy cannot go on its own two legs. it needs support. jonathan: many people said that in the summer and now we are looking at september and october. and it's pretty decent.

what expense that? thomas: this survey only says if things are looking better or worse. it does not tell you about the quality of the recovery. employment is still down by about half in terms of job losses. permanent job losses also rising. i think you were looking at growth at around 0%. that would be a big plateau after a strong rebound in q3. the u.s. economy is at risk of stalling and that is the risk going forward. jonathan: i'm sure the ism fits the narrative to support your view. right now it is pretty decent. it correlates well with gdp over time. that forward momentum in the u.s. economy, i'm not saying it has not decelerated but it is still there. the talk about europe seems to have gone away pretty quickly. what are your thoughts on that? thomas: the situation in europe is getting more

europe. from spaining some and the u.k. you still have the brexit damocles sword over europe. if we get no deal, that could be a threat to european growth in the next year. you are right to point out that recovery is fragile. what you are seeing in europe is a strong acceleration in new coronavirus cases. weighs on confidence at the recovery. who was the is worst and their recovery? at this stage europe is probably the worst. tom: what is the run rate here of all these different gdp's? are you just modeling in your head we will recover and go at 80% of what we were doing in january? is it 70%? do you have a number in your head where the markdown is on

the run rate? thomas: the good thing about the u.s. is there has been a strong fiscal stimulus in the spring. that helped the recovery. in europe, the physical programs have been less powerful and less ambitious. u.s. number two is the will go back to precrisis gdp levels by q1 of 2022. that is much faster than europe. you should wait until 2023 to recover the pre-coronavirus level. a europe, the recovery from crisis is always slower than the u.s. having said this, it does not mean the u.s. could still grow more and more faster. that would need more stimulus, i think. economies need more stimulus everywhere. tom: what is the unemployment rate in the united states? we are making newsday today on on the single-digit numbers.

people say forget about it. it is near double-digit or true double digit. thomas: the unofficial rate is quite fair. it is high. we are nearly at 8% in the u.s. below 4% going into the coronavirus crisis. what you have seen is this coronavirus crisis is leading to an employment shock of around 3% of the labor force. you see that in the u.k. for the rate could rise by around 3% to 4%. in the u.s. we are settling in the 3% to 4% increase. that is due to people working in services and leisure, hospitality, tourism, travel. they are being affected for the foreseeable future. that is the damage to the labor market. let's hope we don't have t spill and other sectors. uph are at risk

spillover to other sectors. firms may be starting to cut on capex. that would definitely be a negative for growth going cutting capex are due to lack of confidence in the recovery. jonathan: what is the most dominant force? one issue is consumer confidence in the other was corporate confidence and capital spending. is the consumer disengaging because of fears of the covid-19 outbreak and the surge in various zip codes, new york city and elsewhere? what is the biggest concern for you? thomas: the problem in the u.s. as there is also uncertainty linked to the election. that could weigh on consumer and corporate confidence. corporate confidence has been quite resilient. you saw that in the isn. i think it is a risk. firms want to see demand and if demand evaporates, that could wake on invest -- weigh on

investment. that is the problem. i will watch closely corporate sentiment going forward more than consumer sentiment. jonathan: tom, always smart. thomas costerg. the need for more fiscal stimulus worldwide. campaigningels like going to election season more than it does real negotiating taking place in washington. tom: i agree with that. the difference from 32 days to 28 days is profound. imagine where we will be 19 days to election. now is the crazy political season. they are just a few other stories going on as well. -- they are just a few others stories going on as well. jonathan: we talked about the squeeze in the bond market yesterday. let's take a sneak peek. run through some of the numbers.

10-year yield, a big turnaround. tom: oil brings it. jonathan: up 79 basis point. up six percentage points and change. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: whether first word news, president trump says there is no reason to fear coronavirus that has killed more than 210,000 americans. the president has been released from the hospital where he was treated for the virus. i white house doctor says he may not be entirely out of the woods yet. the president will receive further care in the coming days. president trump intends to be ready to debate joe biden next week despite just being released from the hospital. that's according to trump campaign spokesman tim murtaugh. he says the campaign will not

agree to the moderator being able to view the candidates when thetime is expired -- mute candidates when time has expired. the cdc's coronavirus can spread into worst of air beyond six feet. that guidance could now pose new challenges for schools and businesses trying to reopen safely. the cdc's update says the virus can spread through particles that linger in the air and infect people separated by distance is considered safe. retakeneme court has argumentlican-backed -- the ruling will not affect absentee ballots that have already been cast. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> economic recovery has been pretty good. it has been a little quicker than i was expecting back in june when i submitted a forecast.

i had been quite nervous about -- there is a normal recovery where we get back to the level of where we were going into this. maybe.e in 2022 we seem to have been doing better than that. federal: charles evans, bank chicago president speaking with michael mckee in the last one for hours. coming up later, catching up with the wonderful lisa shalett. we will do that in around about an hour. we will talk politics as well. this comes from suffolk university-usa today poll in florida. it has joe biden and the 45%-40 5%.ied at -- 45%. these are the ones that really matter to a lot of people. florida, 45-45. tom: the hispanic vote and cuban vote very important. month -- to the jenna

the gentleman from the six congressional district a few moments ago. it takes a little tv money spent on that 6% undecided? we will have to see. jonathan: just a little bit. ions of dollars. right now on what to do with the market going forward, barry ritholtz joins us with bloomberg opinion and bloomberg wealth. atew said -- project here bloomberg that is trying to do personal-finance where here is the advice of what to do, but just as importantly would not to do right now. what is the number one thing to not do given the cacophony of news? barry: don't get sucked into the maelstrom. understand minute to minute, howard our is not relevant to what you are saving and investing for.

if you are 40 years old or not retiring for another two or three decades, who cares what happens on a tuesday at 8:00 a.m. it is not relevant. people live in the moment. it is hard to think in terms of decades. tom: the hard part is a lot of people learn over the years by enjoying losing money that it is ok to stay up with the news flow and the zeitgeist but you have to keep in mind long-term investment. how do you balance that? how do you stay in the zeitgeist, stay current, but push it aside when you look at investment and not speculation? barry: i love what howard marks says. experience is what you get when you don't get what you want. one of the ways to not fall prey to that is to have a financial plan that accommodates your short-term dated today -- day-to-day budgeting needs and

what you are saving for. that can be anything from generational wealth transfer on the upper scale of income and wealth, to simply things like paying for a kids college and being able to retire comfortably. as long as you have an understanding of what you are working for, and software today is so great. you can map out to a high degree of confidence what the world is going to look like if you do a, b, and c over 30 years. you can a sense of what you are leaving your kids were leaving your foundation, or being able to spend in retirement. it's important to think and plan so you understand exactly what you are getting into. lisa: i think that probably is the quote of the year, but 2020. experience is what you get when you don't get what you want. this is a key question to be having an 2020 when yields are going to nothing.

thet of people are saying 60-40 portfolio is dead. people are wondering if they should allocate all stocks and perhaps a little cash in their mattress? is that accurate? does the 60-40 portfolio dead? barry: no. a number of people are advocating all stocks. if you are a mutant in the market is going down get too excited, if in march of 2009 you are like i cannot wait to roll in and buy, that's fantastic. 95% of the population instead has a horrible time. market bottoms are made through a process called capitulation, which technically means surrender. when you look at the lows made in march of this year or back at the end of the financial crisis in 2009, that's a lot of panic selling. if you were in a 60-40 or 70-30

portfolio, the market is down 40%, you are down 25%. it's annoying but it is not brutal. if you are all-cash in march of 2009, you are down 55%. people cannot live with that. the optimal portfolio is not the one that is performing best. it is a when you can sleep at night with. lisa: fair enough. there is a question of whether bonds are the best ballast. maybe there should be more gold given how low yields are or where inflation is inspected ago. it seems like there is not that much upside. barry: there are a couple of things you can look at if you want that ballast. one of things like preferred equities that have a yield. another is tilting your equity portion of your portfolio towards higher dividend payers. they tend to be less volatile. they tend to offset the lack of yield we are seeing in bonds. one of the most interesting

debates taking place these days is, should the 60-40 portfolio 30-30-40ing more like where you roll in private equity of some form or alternative investment assuming you can select a good one and they will let you in and you can keep the prices relatively low? i think it is the most fascinating debate taking place. alternative asset classes that perhaps provide diversification and maybe create a little yield in performance. the jury is still out on that one. tom: are the new york mets and investment? lisa: no. barry: if you watched seinfeld on 60 minutes, he was asked if he was going to bid. he says sitting out there with a -- unless you have more money, i hope cohen

andthe mets and the knicks starts winning. tom: the eagles, the jets, giants,. 1-10-1. barryyou so much, ritholtz. i should point out that bloomberg wealth, we are rolling that as sharp as we can. lisa, the humanity of the bond market. the losses taken. lisa: oh, the humanity of a 30-year yield. it is the highest since june. it is starting the day down. there.ne full treatment what are we going to do their? 1.6% 30 having your yield? -- 30-year yield?

lisa: you call this a bear market? julie coronado. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

jonathan: from new york and london, good morning. this is the count out to the open. the countdown starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening bell with equity futures up six point. we begin with a big issue. the market considering a democratic sweep. >> biden opening up a lead. >> a joe biden win. >> the possibility of a biden victory. >> biden leads considerably in the polls right now. >> if you have a clear winner on election day. >> is a close election. >> we take a lot of risk out of the treasury market. >> the market is thinking about some of the consequences of a democratic administration. >> fiscal stimulus. >> infrastructure-related stimulus. >> it is considered to be positive for these areas of the economy. jonathan: 28 days remaining until the u.s.