francine: president trump calls of stimulus talks. he says there will be no action until after the election. u.s. legislators propose sweeping antitrust reforms on alphabet and amazon. harris and-- kamala mike pence face-off. we will bring you the very latest. good morning everyone and welcome to bloomberg surveillance. let's go straight to the markets

to give us a story of what's going on. yesterday we saw a big selloff on the back of president trump tweeting he will call off a lot of the stimulus talks. mood focuses on tech giants and corrections we saw there, but they are also arriving in europe put together with bonds and investors digested the tweets from the president, but eurobonds climbing. maybe there is a bat implicitly in the market that we get the extra monetary stimulus. funds dody shows the deliver outperformance but they are not as quite -- not quite as smart as you think. here is leigh-ann gerrans. >> the european central bank is signaling the need for extra

monetary and fiscal stimulus. saysdent christine lagarde her greatest fear is a cliff ise in which fiscal aid brought to soon. it could be prudent to add extra monetary support to sustainably lift inflation. the french economy is set to stagnate in the last three months of the year as the certainty of -- certainty and risks of lockdowns. the nation pasta just agency rated its growth forecast from toto 0% and says its output contract again as restrictions increase. donald trump is now showing no symptoms of coronavirus, but more infections are emerging in the white house, including one of his military aides and one of his valets. joe biden says they should scrap the next debate if donald trump is still infected with coronavirus.

rock legend eddie van halen has died of cancer at the age of 65. known as a guitar virtuoso, his innovation secured his band's place is one of the most outstanding acts of all time. rolling stone magazine put eddie van halen as number eight in the list of top 100 guitarists. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. donald trump has pulled the plug on stimulus talks just hours after jay powell's strongest call yet first small spending. he called on them to stop negotiating and would pass a bill after the election. you can see on the chart yesterday -- of yesterday's session, the markets selling off after troubles tweet. markets and and the

the impact it could have on some polling as well. great to speak to you as always. thanks so much for coming on bloomberg. when you look at how the market is looking at this, are we now stimulus until the election? -- any stimulus bets until the election? >> it wasn't so much when markets moved, it was how little they moved. i think it really talk to the that was going to be the end position, but there would be no stimulus discussions. there was a second tweet a few hours ago suggesting of house democrats present a bill with just the $1200 stimulus check, than the senate republicans could back it in the white house could back it. what you are seeing in terms of

the european open and market reaction yesterday was a little bit of disbelief that this is the endgame stimulus. francine: what will actually move the needle of stimulus? how much do we need to make sure they are -- there are not permanent scars. questiona good particularly in light of jerome powell's comments yesterday around meetings fiscal stimulus to get through what is undoubtedly going to be a -- quarter. frustrating for viewers not to be given a dollars and cents number. it will be determined by the shape of the epidemiological curve. how much infections will drive shut down and how much household balance sheets will be impaired. orderk something of the of a $2 trillion stimulus

package is probably what we will look at, but probably only that , it feels like the landing zone between where senate republicans are in were house democrats are. for in are you looking terms of the u.s. economy, if we have a sudden downturn? we look at infections and potential restrictions or second lockdowns, but where do you see it first. ? >> i think the latter. consumption so far is held up well. there are signs of stimulus enacted in the cares act, quite a bit of that was saved by households anticipating a rainy day. and some of the metrics and the third quarter do suggest household balance sheets are fairly resilient. i do think you are right to site housing.

has rightly so off a lot of forbearance that is been introduced around the world. as that starts to roll off, we start to see the shape of nonperforming loans, both in housing and commercial loans. i think we will only really know the shape of the damage from covid once we get to the real reality, not the artificial reality. >> what is being priced in in the markets and what different shape can the economy take place under biden instead of the trump administration? have done a bit of analysis in terms of trying to navigate the next 30 days for investors in the run-up to the presidential election. , when a challenger is victorious, the equity market sells off ahead of that. when the incumbent trials -- tribes, there is an impact. we think it biden administration

with a real focus on building back better which appears to be the biden campaign soundbite will be the peace of the jigsaw that had been missing pre-covid from the u.s. economy. that big infrastructure plan that we hope we would see today but hadn't. if it is a blue sweep of the house and senate and the presidency, that we see that and that becomes perhaps as we return to normality, a real trigger. a positive multiplier of the biden presidency. francine: thank you so much. we have to talked about brexit as well. joining us to talk about the vice presidential debate is kathy hunter from our politics team. the other thing we are waiting for is the face-off between mike pence and kamala harris. is proportion of this suddenly the thing that could

sway votes even more. what are you watching in tonight pasta bait. tonight debate. is different for number of reasons. not the least of which the president dealing with health issues from covid-19. as it stands for tonight, there are two main things to watch. there is a lot of excitement on the democratic side around addition to the ticket. watching if she lives up to those expectations and the degree to which she is able to satisfy democrats desire that she takes the debate strongly to pence will be something to watch. there was over the risk of high expectations. she will be under the gun tonight and i think the other element to watch is the precautions, of the additional

safety cautions put in place unlike a week ago when trump and biden debated, the two candidates will each be behind a plexiglas shield even though they will be more than 12 feet apart on the debate stage. the optics of that and seeing how that influences the debate, it is important to keep in mind there are two additional presidential debates coming up. francine: how many people are undecided? it was a huge swing in certain polls because of what we saw the white house and the way the president handled his own illness of covid-19. do we trust the polls, are people undecided, has the narrative changed over the weekend? >> i do think we are seeing some shift in the polls and i think the shifts are not generally the ones i've seen have not been official. they have not been to the president possible benefit. that being said, i do think there is an important caveat

that this time four years ago, hillary clinton was widely considered to be the one who would be donald trump in the 2016 election. that being said, i think it's even more difficult for a lot of reasons that are covid related this time around to project to a likely voter is. we have to have -- you have to take these with a grain of salt not only because they are still about four weeks until the election, but also because i think the pandemic is really shaking up who might come out to vote. francine: kathleen, thank you so much. also coming up, coverage of the frompresidential debate 1:30 a.m. london time. we will have full coverage right here on bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. and francine lacqua in london. the ecb president and the chief economist are urging for further monetary and fiscal stimulus as the euro zone struggles to sustain its economic recovery. evident france's set to stagnate in the last three months of the year according to a statistics agency. it downgraded the forecast from 1% as uncertainty over the risk of lockdown. us, simon, i have one million questions. i could speak to you for four hours. it's about brexit, how the economy actually deals with lockdowns whilst negotiating with the u.k. as well. what worries you the most in europe? >> what worries me at the moment

slowdowns in those fast indicators. suggests what has been a stronger q3 and we will season spectacular quarter on quarter growth across the euro zone when they are released in november, whether that momentum will stall. the problem is policymaking and coordination christine lagarde is rightly asking national governments to lead on in the european commission to lead on, there will be a sense that we have done that with the initial pandemic in that phase ii doesn't get the same level of primacy in discussions. that would be the fear i have. francine: how difficult is it to look at the shape of the recovery? we heard yesterday from christine lagarde that maybe what could have been a v-shaped

recovery looks more like a w. what kind of programs need to go hand-in-hand with that? >> it is almost like you have outlook for european economy. it is a seesaw. element of uncertainty with the vaccine, the lumpy nature of lockdown restrictions, of the nature of business investments and how investments in consumer confidence will respond to that timeline means that we see a seesaw in terms of growth rates. there are other acronyms and letters that are available. affectively i think she is right in terms of we have become perhaps used to growth phases and recessionary faces -- phases. that wasn't the case if you look at the growth patterns in the 50's, 60's and 70's.

you at a few quarters of growth and then a retraction. we may be going to that and investors will have to get used to that. not long business cycles, but short, sporadic and unpredictable business cycles. francine: what are you expecting of brexit? it seems talks are stuck on fisheries. it feels it that's a redline for the president. sound i don't want to complacent, it's been a dangerous place to be to be complacent that a deal will get done or a timeline will be observed. but i do think there is common ground, not just on the role of the european -- and the level playing field obligation from the u.k., but also on fishing. we rode our big piece on this in june, we expected the european council in mid-october to be the moment where the politicians rather than negotiators.

boris johnson, angela merkel, emmanuel macron will have to come together and find a place to provide the europeans the certainty over the medium-term on fishing rights. it could be a five year or 10 year promise in return for granting the u.k. independent coastal status, which is a sound bite the brexiteers want to clang around. i think there is a deal to be done and the opportunity for investors in the last four years which is the pound and u.k. equity. let's get the latest on the ukraine. the european union is pledging to push ahead with work on a free-trade deal with ukraine after talks with brussels. they've given 15 billion euros to support ukraine since russia annexed crimea in 2015. anne-marie joins us with the finance minister. >> good morning.

i am at the ukrainian embassy. ukraineas the delegation is here to meet with boris johnson. thanks for joining bloomberg for this exclusive interview. you are in london to meet with boris johnson. residence a lenski and boris johnson will meet and you are there as part of the discussion. you have a deal with the european union, but brexit has muddied the waters with what your relationship will be with the u.k. going forward. i believe we can reshape our nearest relations. those with great britain are one of our major partners. president and our show our great commitment to be partners with great britain. able andhat we are committed to sign a deal, sign

an agreement with great britain which help to facilitate our relations. >> you also want to ask about the imf. it's unclear when it will arrive. do you have to potentially tap the debt markets? >> we are in constant negotiations with them. we met with the imf team several times. we discussed our budget on our questions. i believe we successfully fulfilled all necessary conditionality's with our ability to continue our gas market and also we did some successful implementation and also we already created a single entity.

we did our best to show our great commitments to help safeguard deals with the imf. will you have to take any sort of roadshow virtually given the pandemic? this here weink in will need this, now is the question of our ability to fulfill our needs by themselves. needs find our financial in our market and if we need to borrow it could be concessional loans and nothing else. i don't think it's a good time for us. borroweduccessfully this year already. it was one of the more successful borrowing from maybe 10 years perspective. i believe that we need to be

honest with our partners and if we need to finance our deficit, in a reliable time and a reliable price for us. >> under the obama administration, ukraine borrowed $3 billion. you pay back $1 billion of that. do you think you have to ask the u.s. for more assistance? not often lead more assistance from the other side. discussionsn of later and now i just want to stretch in september we were debt without our any external support. we have a u.s. election under one months time, do you think these negotiations would change if we were to see a biden administration? >> ukraine should deal with that

who americann citizens choose. it does not matter who is the president of the united states for us. we should find the ability to communicate, to discuss, and to .ain some successful deals >> it is not often that you see ukraine at the center of american politics, which we saw under the trump administration. i know you came after that investigation which revolved around that july 25 phone call. you became finance minister well after that, but how our relationships right now with the trump administration? soundelieve that we have and clear relations. but from my side, we had a good contact with the imf team.

believeinancial side i we can discuss all of our issues. i know they also have good relations. , itou look at perspective is a tough time for american elections and i don't think it's a good time to have connections -- but if needed, they can call to each other. needed, president zelensky could call and ask for assistance and he would feel the same about calling a president biden? >> i think so. >> do you start planning if there was a change in the administration. does the cabinet start planning what that would look like? >> i want to stress what i that we shoulde, with whateverk

president the united states elected. we will be working with trump as well as with biden. >> i want to quickly ask about nord stream 2. gas revenue is so important to read -- ukraine. do you think it will see the light of day? we just headlines out of poland saying they're going to go against because of this. you think we will see a nord stream 2? it is our national interest to safeguard our ability to from the east part to the west. our whole idea is to be a partner for european countries. managei believe we can -- as necessary.

that is why nord stream 2 is a nervous about our future. it is all in our hands. theou are able to safeguard necessary conditions to transfer gas to europe, we will be happy with that anyway. >> thank you for your time this morning. francine: coming up next, we have the etf show. everything you need to know right here on bloomberg. ♪

francine: welcome to bloomberg etf iq europe. over the next 30 minutes i will be a guide to the regions thriving market, everything you

need to know about the funds and the flows. francine: european etf took 62 billion euros in the first nine months of 2020, edging the. last year. you that story as well. let's kick it off with a look at which countries and sectors have been attracting the money. here is dani burger with analysis of the numbers. dani: that's what i've