reporter: good morning from london. i'm annmarie hordern. here is what you need to know today. at a tipping point. prime minister boris johnson is set to tighten restrictions after a spike in virus cases. he will appear in parliament before giving a televised address. stimulus still at an impasse. president trump and speaker pelosi blame each other for a lack of progress.

22 days to go until the election. trump trails joe biden in a national poll. yuan rally hit the pause. a weakerlowed with than expected fixing. it is just gone 6:00 a.m. really filled with a lot of finger-pointing as mark cudmore points out. no one really expect money from a major new package before the u.s. election, but they are betting on a monster injection. that puts our focus on the rising coronavirus cases europe is battling, and attention will shift to london. we will hear about restrictions from boris johnson. let's take a look at how. monday -- let's see how monday morning is shaping up. equities, the csi 300 outperforming.

up to .5%. there is a lot of optimism ahead of president xi jinping's address this week. that is expected to announce reforms to the upside. trade,.s. equities of the bond markets will be closed for columbus day. let's take a look at what is going on across asset. when you look at the currency space, it is about the yuan. a higher dollar weaker yuan. this comes after the pboc making it easier to bet against. libya reopened its biggest field. for libya's economy, a headache for opec-plus. on the euro-dollar. officials are stepping up efforts to contain the virus. boris johnson is expected to announce a new tiered system. italy's government is working on tighter restrictions on social gathering and sports. our reporter joins us.

maria, what are the new restrictions we are going to learn about today? weekend,ing into the we talked about how we were going to see new restrictions, and they are coming. today, the prime minister will make the speech. we understand that the government will see that the nation will be divided in different colors. that is the risk of virus and getting that contagion. you would be divided in colors that go from the risk as medium, high, or very high. this is already being done by the french government, and the goal behind it is to allow you to tailor the restrictions. this is not a general or national lockdown. let you aim to do is tackle specific areas and specific problems. the other country in focus today is italy, which until now had done a very good job at keeping the curve flat. but we are seeing cases jump, the highest since late march. this is a concern for the

italian government. there are going to be more restrictions today designed to curb some of the social interactions, to avoid the time people spend together. the italian government does not want to see anything that looks like march at the start of the year. it was traumatic for the country. annmarie: certainly. i don't think any leader wants to go through what we went through in march again. but we are seeing covid cases take higher -- covid cases tick higher. what will be the impact on the economy? maria: you make a good point. we are seeing france posting new records. madrid has gone into a very light lockdown. the key takeaway at this point is these measures are going to be here for longer than expected. weeks. not about two this is months we are talking

about. those restrictions affecting tourism and the service industry, probably becoming more structural for the economy. -- we could see some weakness kick in again because of those restrictions. thank youmaria tadeo, very much. she will be joining us later. joining us is our guest, the head of global macro strategy. our markets properly pricing in more economic restrictions that maria just outlined for us? guest: good morning. i think markets are pricing in softer measures. more measures, yes, but they are betting on the fact that they will not have generalized lockdowns and that policymakers will try to keep these measures as soft as possible and not impacting growth in the way it did over the spring.

that said, we know that q4 was going to be a little softer. we know that we are seeing this .ost in annmarie: you have reduced your overweight to europe. early on in the pandemic, the debate on wall street was whether or not europe would outperform and recover quicker than the united states. going --w think it is that trade is going to switch and we will see the u.s. potentially outperform europe? guest: i think it is going to depend a lot on the presidential election. there is a view that we will get bidenh stimulus from a and blue congress that that is going to be positive globally, that the dollar will be a little bit weaker, and that means that elsewhere you can have better performance as well. but when you look down to it,

u.s. growth is most likely going to be higher. it was going to be anyway, but higher compared to other regions, including europe. it is something we are going to have to see. there is optimism about u.s. growth, about the recovery, about stimulus. some of these sectors can perform better and can catch up, and europe should benefit from that. annmarie: i want to ask about the recovery fund. do you think at the end of the day we will see it, and soon? guest: absolutely. we need the recovery fund in europe, and germany knows this. we have seen broadly across europe this move toward fiscal expansion that we had not seen in a very long time. we are continuing to get pressure from the ecb. granted that was a long time ago and it has not always worked, but misses merkel's focused on getting this recovery plan up and running. we might see a few concessions

here and there, but by 2021, it will be with us. annmarie: i want to ask you about the periphery. do peripheral bonds look less attractive the longer the recovery fund takes? guest: i don't think so. size of aook at the lot of these european economies and you look at the size and scale of the european recovery fund from a purely numbers perspective, we need even bigger numbers to support a lot of these countries, like spain and italy. but when you think about the messaging behind it, when you come back to thinking, we have further integration, further cooperation, we are moving in the right direction in europe. there is a view that if the periphery does not hold up, it will be bad for all of europe and the northern countries. areink the messaging is, we going to continue to support the periphery, and i think the bond

spreads will reflect that. background tothe all of this, the covid cases picking up, where does this leave brexit negotiations? october 15 was supposed to be this critical day. do you think it will end up being that much of a hard stance that the u.k. will take, or do you think at some point we will see a deal and they will continue negotiations until the end of the year? guest: i think they would like to get something done in the next couple days, but there remains a couple really key sticking points so far. heis johnson is saying pushed the deadline so that businesses can prepare, but ultimately i believe we will have a deal. whether it is a very bare-bones, itategic industries deal and happens well into november, they will continue to talk, whether they call it official talks or

not. the discussions will continue and i don't think we are heading towards a no deal brexit. annmarie: no deal, but maybe a bare-bones deal. with us. stays we will talk about the stimulus saga as it continues in dc. trump and pelosi are blaming each other for the lack of progress. is anyone pricing in a deal? this is bloomberg. ♪

> it all turns on what the definition of saving the economy is. if they can put up the package that is proposed, the $1.8 trillion, that is probably enough to buy us another three to six months. it won't come in time to make a difference for the month of

november, but the impact may be starting to be felt like christmas. -- felt by christmas. in terms of the long run, the cares act and the existing program have done very little to lift structural growth for the long term. reporter: monetary policy has been what has saved the credit markets in a lot of ways. a lot of these bigger businesses that have been able to seek financing. but how would you compare that to all of the access to credit for smaller businesses, as we have seen so many of them shut down already? >> i think what the policymakers are doing here is leaving themselves open to another round of criticism, just like they got at the end of the financial crisis, which is the government programs were designed to bailout the big boys, but they left main street behind. the main street lending program has been a disaster. which was a great

program as an emergency stop gap, of course is gone, and all the aid to the airlines has been used up. we are going to start seeing layoffs here. and structurally, more than half of americans are employed by small to medium-sized businesses. a lot of those businesses are never coming back. annmarie: guggenheim global ceo scott minerd talking about stimulus. president trump and speaker pelosi blaming each other for the lack of progress over the weekend. shippingdent sent signals, while policy has labeled the administration's current offer as grossly inadequate. >> republicans want to do it. we are having a hard time with nancy pelosi. she thinks she can influence the election, and i think they are hurting themselves by not doing it.

annmarie: meanwhile, traders may be coming around to the idea that the u.s. election may not be ending in fireworks as volatility bet sees around the world. the real believers seem to be in e.m.. dani: e.m. is telling us the risk is less apparent. it is all over the voluntarily space. you and i both talked to people who said the biggest risk is not necessarily a democrat or a republican in the white house. it is if we get a contested election. biden leads in the polls. hear is the curve. the difference one week has made is stark. we have this kink in the curve where the election exists, but we have everything lower down out around the u.s. election. let me show you what this looks like compared to ems. here is the spread between the ems and the vix.

moey usually are more vile us of a, but contested election means this space of emerging market volatility has shown the biggest plunge in the volatility space. it is almost too cheap to ignore, as one of our guests told me. but one of the weird things, if we are expecting a blue wave to be priced in, perhaps you would expect tech volatility to be priced in. however, the spread between tech thethe vix, it did drop in turmoil mid year, but it has remained elevated. getting moreis not expensive. a blue wave getting priced in when it comes to stimulus in an uncontested election, but here is one space where the trade is not necessarily playing out. annmarie: thank you for that. let's get more context on this

with esty dwek. what do you make of what dani laid out? we are seeing this volatility in e.m. it seems that things are a little quieter as the market starts to price in not just a blue wave for the white house, but really across the entire political spectrum in the united states. guest: absolutely. as we just mentioned, i think there weretwo key points worrying markets. the uncertainty, how long until we had a result, and the contested election. and the idea that we did not know which direction we were going to go in but this could turn ugly. the more we see the polls swing toward biden, the more confident we are that a contested election is not the best case scenario. if you get this blue wave that looks to be increasingly likely, you get even more stimulus. biden would be seen to be softer

on some of the trade relations, or behave differently and approach them differently. it is not a surprise that all of that makes volatility in general and for emerging markets coming down. this negative base case scenario, and now the market is pricing that out. annmarie: falling volatility, will that give investors the push to park cash in an asset class? guest: one area we have to keep a nine on, especially -- we have to keep an eye on is yield. they have been extremely well behaved. yields are acting as if curve control started or could start at any moment. that does not seem to be changing. but they are drifting higher and could continue to drift higher. as long as that is gradual, it is not much of a concern.

if it starts to look more unruly, we will have to keep an eye on that. i think ultimately we will see cash move more into the equity market, especially if the bond market stays well behaved. we were expecting some of these more cyclical sectors are likely to catch a bid and start to play catch up for what we have seen the last six to nine months. annmarie: you have this maintained preference for investment grade over high-yield. i wanted to ask what your thoughts were over u.s. bankruptcies. neel kashkari mentioned this over the weekend about a wave of small businesses going under. are you concerned about more bankruptcies coming out of the united states? guest: that is a risk we are keeping an eye on, clearly because we are not back to 100%. the mobility data and the spending data is showing that. given the situation with the virus, given the fact that we

are headed into a complicated winter and this will be quarters, not months, you know that a number of sectors are not going to get back to normal for a very long time. as i heard earlier in the program, how many businesses are going to be able to continue to survive like they have? 2021 could be trickier. that is one of the reasons we need more fiscal support. in general, we are definitely keeping an eye on the default rates. moreis why we are comfortable in investment grade. annmarie: on that fiscal support, i have not even asked outright, do you agree with what we are hearing from everyone in the markets, which is basically we will get a deal, it just will not be before the election? guest: i think that is absolutely consensus, and i agree with it. the markets at the moment, that is all they care about, getting the stimulus. if we get some before the election, we expect it to be topped up after, so markets are

pretty happy. if we don't, numbers in the u.s. are showing the u.s. economy can withstand and resist throughout the fourth quarter and wait until after the election and we will get even more later. from a stimulus perspective, it is more a question of when than a question of if, and that is what is supporting markets. annmarie: just to wrap this all up, given what is going on in europe and the u.s., you do like em currencies. dani was talking about volatility, but we see that coming down. where in e.m. do you like currencies? guest: we are extremely selective, and it is going to be a fact of the dollar starting to weaken again. we have to make sure that improvednd that the growth outlook in the u.s. compared to elsewhere, thanks to all the stimulus that is now expected to come, doesn't keep the dollar too strong. we need that weakening trend to

cut back a little bit more. there are a number of places undervalued, but generally speaking, i would say we have a preference for asia. the virus situation is being dealt with a lot better, the growth outlook is better, they can benefit from china and the growth engine there. i would say a bit less volatility coming on that front as well. annmarie: esty dwek from natixis investment managers stays with us. let get to the first word news with laura wright. laura: the u.k. is set to tighten restrictions in an effort to curb the spread of coronavirus. prime minister boris johnson will unveil a new tiered system of alert levels, dividing england into areas of medium, high, and very high alert. the deputy chief medical officer has warned the nation it is at a tipping point. prime minister boris johnson is calling for the eu to back down from its hard-line position on fisheries. he made the comments on a call with chancellor angela

merkel and emmanuel macron. it comes ahead of the key summit on thursday. it is unclear if enough progress will be made or if the u.k. will walk away from negotiations. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie? weakere: coming up, a than expected fix from the pboc as authorities take steps to rein in the yuan's recent rally. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: 6:25 a.m. in the city of london. the pboc has moved to restrain the recent appreciation in the yuan by removing a two-year-old rule that made betting against

the currency expensive. juliette saly joins us from singapore. we also saw a weaker fix in the pboc, and we see this moving the yuan. juliette: we certainly do. remember, this is after the onshore came back after the holiday and strengthened the most since 2019. this lifting of ththe rule showed they are putting the brakes on some of these recent appreciations. ofy stopped short encouraging declines. that is seen by many as a move they will tolerate some strength. this could push the yuan back toward 6.75 to the dollar. it provides an elegant way to mitigate the appreciation of the yuan without upsetting a belligerent white house in the middle of an election campaign. annmarie: wow. what are other analysts saying about the move? juliette: we were talking to

fred niemann from hsbc on bloomberg radio earlier, and he said what happened over the weekend was a tactical move from authorities. he does not see it as a game changer. he does expect there will be more strength coming through in the on and offshore yuan, but you will see the recent rally blunted by the move by the pboc to lift the roll on buying currencies moving forward. the rule change is not a signal for this. when it comes other currencies, you have this call saying that any weakness in the seann -- in the cny could affect others. saly, thankliette you so much for joining us from singapore. coming up, joe biden widened his lead over president trump with just over three weeks to go before election day.

all the latest on the campaign trail coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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now it's your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. annmarie: good morning. this is a break, and this is what you need to know. at a tipping point, boris johnson is set to make adjustments after a spike in virus numbers. stimulus having an impact. president trump and speaker pelosi blame each other for a lack of progress. as between eight days until the

election, trouble trails blighted -- trails abided in a trail. it with a weaker than expected fixing. very good morning to you. the stimulus saga continues added to say. -- out of dc. let's see where we are in the trading of the market. jinping's before xi address this weekend. yuan all about the following. making it easier to bet against. we are doubt about one percentage point. this is with libya coming back onto the market. we have, i believe, cable trading around 130. trailingident trump is

democratic joe biden by 12 points, with a little more than three weeks before november 3. poll byaccording to a washington post and abc news from last night. michelle, whaty does this data tell us about president trump's positioning heading into the final weeks of the campaign? we know trump is eager and will be heading back out as soon as today to florida. not good that poll was news for trump. he was quick to write it off as an eye care. memories ofesh election night 2016. member hearing from pollsters that they had not pocketed correctly. everyone is still pretty cautious about getting an accurate reading on the situation. we will expect to see a narrowing of the polls and the final weeks.

it is good news for former vice his lead vice biden as is solidifying, not allowing trump to closing that gap. there are many caveats here. battleground states and turnouts. a head full of key swing states could be a dealbreaker, and the state polls are much closer even in that poll from last night and even less clear than the national lever. i would watch pennsylvania, which trump has been making a hard run at. in florida, both key states. turnout, turnout. millions are already sending in mail-in ballots. if those responding will show up on election day, given the circumstances. annmarie: now that he has had his first public appearance since he has been treated for covid, what will you watching

him prioritize? the covid diagnosis has interacted with his push for law and order. so you can expected to get back to that. he would avoid the economy issues. trump tryect to see to continue to say and the driver seat and vintage truck might blow up the deal of me to say that he might rescue it again. we have seen him take similar tracks. he will try to control the situation. nancyl see what is led by posey and the democrats in congress. what we see and terms of e-cig's package is very critical to the economy. -- in terms of a stimulus package. see thise will

tug-of-war between the trouble and bided cap as to if -- bet ween trump and biden camps, and how the style will be and managing the pandemic. you will continue to hear the biden cap talk about the covid response. voters, october 3 nine will bring us the first look at the third-quarter gdp data and a little information elsewhere. annmarie: speaking of those undecided voters, a lot our independence. yesterday, i went to the washington post/abc polls, and we see a stark contrast where trump was versus clinton, and where he is now versus biden. this where either candidate is going to win?

michelle: i think that is key. moderates might be swayed one way or the other. they tend to vote on issues that might be unpredictable. it is hard for them to decide the weights of all those issues right now. i think that is going to be key. the independents are shifting more toward biden in this case because that is lost to trump in 2019. -- and 2016. morning iss this etsy. he heard what michelle said there. the polls of 2016 that are very remiss it when you look at 2020 that people sometimes doubt at these polls are correct. 2016, trump's levels at the

same. what do you make of this? etsy: we are taking everything with a grain of salt. after 2016,aying, there is a little bit less confidence. to be more ahead than hillary was back then. undecideds is actually lower than it has been in the past. this year it appears to be closer to 5%. we have two candidates that are very far from each other. what's to keep looking at that. the way the things are moving at the moment, and you are seeing youmarket reaction as well, never know and to november 4 in the early hours for us. it looks like, the polls are more indicative.

when you do the math for the electoral college, and when you are looking at some of these swing states, some of the big swing states do the counting and reporting on the third. we should know pretty quickly. ,f any of those go to biden like florida, it will be a lot more trouble for trump mathematically. annmarie: at this point, if you believe the polls, just president donald trump need to do to snatch a victory? esty: that is a very good question. we talked about a couple of topics. hopefully, highlighting how much the economy has improved in the last six months, that may be reopening was not the worst idea, because as you can see, compared to a lot of other areas and countries, the gross numbers are going to hold up. he is trying to send more money

to americans, and i think those are going to be the key messages. from that natixis investment managers, esty dweck. let's get the first four news with laura wright. laura: thank you. could see a very slow recovery where the thousands of businesses at risk. more action from washington is vital. a hongve is considering kong listing for more than $1 billion. bloomberg sources say that this is already trading, at $1 billion, the biggest ever listing by a malaysian company in hong kong. the biggest baking takeover this year, saudia america's national bank has agreed to buy its rival.

mr. b total assets of more than $220 billion, the coastal region third-largest take. - global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: thank you, coming up. climate change is considered the greatest right to the world. as according to new research. we will discuss that with the head of sustainable and impact investing at the private bank. this is a correlation that you do not want to miss. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: i am annmarie and

legend. highding to research, network investors are planning to double their portfolio allocation to access and have a positive impact on society in the environment by 2025. we are joined by damian payiatakis. good morning. thank you so i for joining me. with this just released report, the group that you interviewed, they average net worth of, and they found that climate change is considered the greatest threat to the road. where are they doing about it? damian: thank you. good morning. we definitely see climate change as being one of the most significant aspects for investors one ford. what is very interesting about this group, is how concerned they are, and how they are starting to take action. what we are seeing more more is the risk taken on an opportunity

basis. during the pandemic, over half saw climate as the greatest challenges facing the world. we do not always see the actions that they could take. only 19% of them knew there carbon footprint. they said if they did, they would use it to actually invest 70. we see that in two different ways with our portfolios. understanding the risk and risk, understanding the effect. we are seeing that shift start to happen and even more so the requirements. i am interested. annmarie: are they going to go for straight climate plays or go for oil companies that are mapping out how they're going to become more renewable. is this when they should be investing in taking the kind of

long road view? damian: we see a divergent view from these families. a proportion of them were actually interested in avoiding them from an ethical basis given their background. another percentage said that they were interested in thinking about the long-term perspective. whether they could make the --nsition and be they did not necessarily see that the execution risk was the right place for them to be. it was a very interesting mixture in terms of where the families were. partially from an investment basis, as to where and how they were to portray them. we had the biggest ever green deal and. -- one of the presidential candidates is running on a very ambitious and expensive green

plan. i know that your research talks about covid being the tipping point. how much does politics play into this? damian: it plays a fundamental catalyst. in response to the survey, 86% said that the government needs to do more. they also took responsibility themselves. 81% said that private capital should come in and support the transition as well. i think partially it is from that sense of responsibility that they have, i think it is partially because they have seen growth opportunities in the market and that space. idea that somehe of these countries or regions are using government stimulus to actually enhance their ability to build back or build back better, it is an interesting idea. we are also seeing the risk come out of that. you are seeing companies being given stimulus having to commit to green energy infrastructure

or targets, or new opportunities coming out of clean or renewable energy. investor,d, as an have to be aware of the motivations of government, in terms of what they are trying to do. even more so, back to the opportunity sense, the renewable energy are energy efficiency. or interesting aspects of mobility, waste, water, agriculture. what we are seeing, it is low yield ahead of us. opportunitiesg for the investors in the long-term. climate, outside of what other concerns are impacting where they put cash? damian: it is interesting that you refer to covid. while it is clearly placed interest in health care at the top, it is interesting how covid has impacted the perceptions of the state overall. given thespects,

market volatility that we see this year, it is debatable that there has been its first live test of the challenges around performance, and that has it passed fairly well. on a personal level, we're seeing wealth holders start to see -- start think about their resources and a legacy and tub is resistant to a younger generation. i think what is interesting is helping clients sell fleet -- safely obviate their portfolios in 2020. we are having car visions about the next stage. what do you want your wealth to do and how do you want your children to inherit. interesting shift in terms of thinking about the longer-term and what does the wealth actually mean and how do not eat this deal. -- how do you navigate this

deal. many of the investors said that they were not returned to normal. what else is in store for this new normal? damian: along those lines as well, at 66% said that they are going to integrate more of a government considerations. -- risksk of medication mitigation perspective. when the skeptics had been looking at this for quite a long time, when they looked during this year, at the performance relative to these sustainable bonds, there is a shift. investmentseeing our portfolios operate as well. annmarie: how long before esg becomes another asset class? damian: i think that we are on the right track. for many people in the field, it is not about another asset class. he fundamentally see using

sustainable investing as a next stage of investing. if it went back further, we only had returned originally. then he had risk and return. i think fundamentally, and investors are realizing that there is value to protect and grow your assets, by thinking about esg and sustainability. there is also opportunity to make a positive difference in the world. that's coming out of the motivation that we are seeing from investors. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us this morning. damian payiatakis. really interesting research, although i do not quite agree on the baseball teams. he is a red sox fan, unfortunately. we speak exclusively with johannes hahn. we are going to head to brussels next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning. europe."daybreak: will hold the meetings virtual this year. wall street banks will begin to report earnings. tomorrow will be the return of jp morgan and citigroup. and tomorrow apple will be unveiling its 5g iphones. a lot coming up this week. on thursday, we have another brexit deadline. european union leaders will meet in theory to propose a trade deal. we will find out if there is a presidential debate or not on thursday. president trump said that he would not take part in airboat face-to-face to biden. it is now time for our segment,

the brussels edition, your essential guide for europe and the political center. we going to be looking at the record bond issuance. journeys joining us -- joining us now, >> i'm particularly excited about this week, because as you mentioned will be looking at what is coming out of the european union. this has never been done. huge numbers from the european commission, this is of course very must back to the recovery fund and the european budget. there is a lot of investor interest in this. how long are these bonds going gete? can we potentially european bond? i'm hoping to get questions and answers from johannes hahn. on that record bond issuance that we are exciting from the eu. tadeo in ouria

brussels studio. will be looking forward to thursday, october 15, at deadline as to whether or not with the negotiations continued. let's take a look at where we are before the european market open. we saw a risk on europe equity trade this morning across asia. chinese equities were higher. - head ofng, up to xi jinping making his way to shenzhen later this week as many are making him to talk about reform. it is shaping up to be this monday morning to be a risk-on event. it is really interesting to see what is going on in the currency market. it is all about the yuan this morning. acting to restrain its strength

to make it easier to bet against , removing the reserve requirement for trading yuan going forward. not necessary to reverse it. if we look across the other currency this morning, cable is getting a little bit of a boost. we'll be hearing from boris johnson today as the covid crisis is taking center stage across europe, as we the cases take higher. that is it for bloomberg daybreak europe. the open is up next. we are waiting to hear what prime minister boris johnson has to say, as he plans to outline the new tiered restrictions across united kingdom. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open open." i'm anna edwards, live in london, alongside matt miller in berlin. matt: today, the markets say sell the yuan. the currency falls after pboc officials make it easier to bed again. asian stocks again with u.s. and european equity futures. the cast trade just an hour .