the more momentum we can keep in comic recovery. >> i think we will be stunned by the rate of upgrades. >> the numbers this year don't really tell us as much as we need to know about the future. >> we are still in the greatest economic shock in over 50 years. >> the market will hear what it wants to hear, and right now this market wants to go higher. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. with equity futures -10 points on the s&p 500, jp morgan , three weeks away from the election. q3 earnings begin. tom: it is all into one big pot, isn't it? incredible news flow here.

i do want to talk about the resiliency of american corporations to adapt and adjust , whether it was johnson & johnson a bit ago, the seven could jillian dollars -- the seven gajillion dollars at blackrock. thenow the story, executable excellence we are seeing in the statistics. it is going to be fascinating. jonathan: it might be too early to say the gloom of pandemic is behind us, but it might be time that we talk about the provision build of these banks. the number comes in at $611 million. i think that is the positive out of this earnings report this morning. talkednali basak really about that being a key statistic, and it is better than good. i go back 10 minutes ago, the idea that they suspended share

buybacks, and yet they've got enormous free cash flow available for dividend growth and maybe some share repurchase. granted, you've got the mystery of what commercial real estate is going to do. jonathan: i imagine their capital return program will change drastically in about 12 months' time. got to move beyond the panda but before that happens. up about 1% on jp morgan. in about an hour, another bank drops. lisa: citigroup third-quarter earnings we are going to be getting. the focus really will be on credit provisioning. will they also come in with a much later provision for loan losses then people were expecting, and then what they have set aside in the previous quarters? have we seen the worst in banks on the front lines, seeing a recovery that seems to be accelerating? at eight: 30 am, we get u.s. cpi consumer price index data. the expedition is for a moderate food price inflation, car price

inflation expected to moderate, rents expected to come down, so not that much inflationary pressure. if you are looking for inflationary pressure, 1:00 p.m., apple is revealing its new products. i am sure tom is ready to get online and look at all the new gadgets. i will say, this to trillion dollar company really matters for the entire economy in the united states -- this $2 trillion dollar company really matters for the entire economy in the united states. tom: i am looking for an entry point. i think dan ives has been absolutely brilliant on this. i am not a fan boy, and it is going to be interesting to see these meetings that come out. i am bored stiff by them, as i know you are. this is a big rollout. this is the first time in three years of a major redo of basically their core product.

jonathan: i have to say, through much of 2019 for some of these analysts as well. tom keene is about to get much poorer, and you will hear about it through the rest of this year. lisa: everyday. tom: it is a total scam. every knows -- everybody knows this. jonathan: apparently the edge of the phone is going to change. they will have sharper edges, and they won't be so smooth. that is going to be the big difference. lisa: that is the only difference. jonathan: for the look and feel of the phone. it might not smash as easily, we hope. that is the wrap from me. let's look at the markets. that's if you get in a pub to have a beer. jonathan: we will talk about that later, tom. down eight points on the s&p 500, down about 0.25% on the s&p. euro-dollar down to $1.1793.

treasury market getting back to work, wondering what the juveniles were up to yesterday when the bond market was away. the move of this market yesterday, just absolutely remarkable. joining us now is jim polson, little group -- jim p aulsen, lose hold -- jim paul group chiefd investment strategist. some of this is buying the depth. i think some of it is just some concern on the cyclical story. story that stimulus continues to be disappointing, and you have the increase in virus cases, which is singing

maybe consumers stay home more. you kind of had a push back to stay home stocks. byot of people that maybe encyclicals, looking at cheaper tech again, kind of buying up those on the dip overall. but i the end of the day, i really think that the biggest thing is that tech just continues to put up numbers of to ignore, is hard and that is more the driving force than anything else. the nasdaq up 90. we will see how that opens up. en, what i think is absolutely fascinating here is the wall of worry. laidler of tower hudson has been great. nobody loves this market. from minneapolis, do you see the same thing? nobody loves this market? jim: i do.

i think this whole crisis has been one of the most emotional we have ever had. it has really helped the market. it has kept $4.5 trillion on the sidelines in money market mutual funds, as people keep flying into the bond market, even though the yields are ridiculously low, which means there's a lot of dry powder on the sidelines if we can ever build some optimism here in the future. we talked about the provisions of the banking industry. i was looking at that yesterday on bloomberg, and total provisions for loan losses are as high right now as they were in the entirety of the 2009 crisis. there's a lot of nightmarish scenarios booked into things, and if it turns out that the reality is a little better than your nightmare, i think there's a lot of revision that has to go on, and that will be a very

positive force for the markets and the economy. lisa: i just want to hook into some of the words, the phrases we. dip, wall of worry, nightmarish scenarios. i am looking at an increasing number of money managers saying this is the beginning of a new bull market. i am wondering where the pessimism is. are we seeing the end of a default cycle that never happened, and people basically looking to the banks to confirm that with the credit loss provisions that are lower than expected? think, you know, you look at gold, at a 50 year high to other commodity prices, that are a lot of people that have piled into gold. --hy ratio of the s&p low kathy ratio of the s&p low vo -- look at the ratio of the s&p low

high dex compared to the vol index. there's a lot of bearish investment behaviors going on, and then things like the bulls iss bears ratio, so there quite a bit of evidence of climbing a wall of worry right now. jonathan: i love the idea that this is going on as the world's biggest company is up about 6% in yesterday succession, seemingly on nothing. the launch of a new iphone, we knew that was happening today. don't you find it amazing that a company that big moves that much, essentially on nothing? jim: i have been impressed. when i look at the market, there's 25% of the highest pe stocks have moved into a new valuation range over the last 30 years. stocks have5% pe

stayed in the same valuation range they have been in over the postwar era. when i look at 25% of the stocks out there, rates of return on equity were in one range through about 1990, and have gone into much higher ranges since, while the rest of the stock market, 75% of the other companies haven't seen that. my point is that highest part of valuation in the stock market, mainly made up by new era technology and coms, they are justifying their performance with excessively good fundamental performance, and i think that continues to be the case. the products that apple comes out with, you just cannot really 80% of the 75% to companies in the world. i think that growth against an economy which is growing very slowly, to percent, 3% for a decade or more, is just outstanding and probably worth a

lot more valuation. jonathan: can to those margins either. jim, great to catch up, as always. jim paulsen of the leuthold group, thank you. minutes, we will get earnings from citi. one thing not talked about enough is the l performance of small caps through this month so far. the russell up by almost 9.5% this month alone. we are halfway through it. the nasdaq getting all the fanfare in the last 24 hours, up about 5% or 6%. the real outperformance has been in the small caps in america. wicked important idea you've just touched on. the question is up or not. what if they both went up? uber bulls's a few talking about it, but what if we the small-cap go up as well?

jonathan: mike wilson of morgan stanley has been looking for this to broaden out. i am not sure if he is one of the names you are throwing into that. tom: absolutely. look at the moves this morning. jonathan: we are up 1%. i see it. i'm with you. tom: we go to two digits on wednesday. jonathan: the s&p 500 down 0.1%. tom: you are so powerful. you are powerful. jonathan: do you sound gloomy? too much time with lisa. lisa: hey, i'm not gloomy. tom: you nailed it. [laughter] lisa: happy tuesday. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ -- kailey: with the first word news, and kailey leinz.

the president said he feels so contractinger covid-19, he wants to go into the crowd and kiss everybody. supreme court nominee amy coney barrett faces questioning on her second day of hearings. one will be vice presidential candidate senator kamala harris. hasson & johnson temporarily halted its coronavirus vaccine study. trial because a clinical patient developed an unexplained illness. the astrazeneca study remains halted in the u.s.. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. leinz.ley this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is another side effect of these low interest rates.

it is really supporting m&a activity, supporting further concentration, including in the financial sector. chathan: former fdic's there.ila bair from new york and london, good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. openings away from the bell, plus 12 minutes. here's the price action this morning. tom keene complaining 80 minutes into the program -- complaining 18 minutes into the program. is this to make you feel bad because you didn't participate? tom: i'm looking for an entry point. i told ben laidler, called up last night in london, he was in p.m. --fore tenneco before 10:00 p.m. i said, where's my entry point? lisa: he said don't call me. [laughter] jonathan: that's what i say every time. tom: i think what is so

important today is to look at apple today, with a further lift on the s&p 500. i believe the beginning of the month, we were all gloomy, weren't we? jonathan: we are up 1.7% this morning. yesterday on apple, we were up 6.35%. do the math on that. it is ridiculous. tom: i want to emphasize this as we go to alison williams, bloomberg intelligence senior analyst on banks. we forget the size of these institutions. number -- a ginormous number rung up at the register each day. the scale here continues to be international. buried in the headlines, they are not only going to take on europe, but new states in america. is jp morgan going to be our national bank? alison: well, they sort of our.

jp morganrt of are, and bank of america, but significant and growing. wells fargo is up there, but they have had some constraints that have held them back. organic deposit growth continues to be a very strong story. they are continuing more share gains, but the big story today is really that loan loss provision coming in at $611 million versus expectations for $2.5 billion. we are seeing reserve releases across most of the units. lisa: the street was expected jp morgan to set aside more than $2 billion, and yet the only set aside $611 million. jon was mentioning this earlier. what is the inference here, that the economy is doing much better? that the loan loss provisions backs of already set aside our

proficient -- set aside our efficient? alison: we are going to want to hear more on the call, but the loan loss provision has two components. one is the actual charge-offs we are seeing. two is the cushion we are setting aside for future losses. the first half, we saw these massive provisions. most of that was guesstimates in terms of how bad the banks thought they could be. that depends on a look at their portfolio, and also estimates around the economy. theaven't really seen increasing loan-loss trajectory yet, just due to a lot of the government supports that we have obviously. this quarter, banks have thecally said we think that provisions are kind of going to match the charge-offs. what we are seeing in jp morgan's actual report are reserve releases. they talked about reserve

releases related to running down their homo-good -- their home mortgage portfolios, but when you look at the numbers, they had reserve releases in the commercial unit, in their corporate investment banking unit, still building up in the consumer unit. they said it was across industries, so what we are going to want to hear about is are they hearing about the more gratian -- the migration in their portfolio that tells them the experience is not going to be as bad as they expected? because it doesn't sound like a change in the economic exceptions, so that is what we will want to get more information about. but it bodes well, and i think we will see what happens with the other banks. jonathan: i think that is really important. the loan losses haven't arrived yet, but the guests is in for jp morgan. but the guess -- but the guess is in for jp morgan.

is this a jp morgan story, or something more broadly? alison: specific to jp morgan, when we looked at their loan-loss reserve last quarter, one way to figure out how well these banks have done so far is to look at what they have built up versus their overall loan portfolio, and then we take an extra step of comparing that to their provisions in the stress test, which gives us a little bit of understanding in terms of their reserve based on the makeup of the portfolio and their underwriting. perhaps they were a little bit more conservative. citigroup will be the interesting one because, as i said, the one area where jp morgan is building reserves me, at leastxcuse where it wasn't a major reserve release the other units was a consumer unit. citigroup had been more conservative and expecting more. they have a much bigger card book, which has been the area of

worry. successjp morgan's stealing share from citigroup? alison: perhaps not apples to apples, per se. if you think about jp morgan's footprint, they have sort of a broad branch footprint across the u.s. citigroup has a very distinct footprint, just focusing on very specific areas, and then by contrast, they have this global branch network around the world, which really only hsbc is similar in that respect. to some extent, they do have different businesses, but to the fact that jp morgan's trading numbers today looked great, they have been gaining share globally from all of their competitors, so that is an area, and to the extent that they are getting some of these higher end customers that citigroup goes after, gaining share.

but within those deposit markets, a lot of that is against perhaps some of the smaller regional competitors. jonathan: great to catch up, as always. alison williams weighing in on the banks, about 35 minutes away from getting the numbers from citi. 1.71%.an up by citigroup doing well also. we talked about how much the small caps it outperformed through much of october. we are closing the gap quickly based on the evidence of the last 24 hours. tom: to me it goes back and forth. again, i've got to go back to this tech up, small caps up. nobody is looking for that. jonathan: what did softbank sank over at milken? lisa: oh, it is not us. . we are not a whale. not even a dolphin. [laughter] jonathan: what is that? from london and new york, good

morning to you all this tuesday morning. more banks still to come. tom: can we talk,? gamma?we talk jonathan: i'd love to do that. there's a tease. ♪ ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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♪ jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. morning, two hours away from the opening bell, jp morgan numbers behind us. coming in better than expected, the reserve build smaller than inspected. futures on the s&p 500 negative not even 0.1%. jp morgan firmer by a little more than 1.6%. nasdaq futures up by 114. we advance 0.9%. euro-dollar, $1.1790. weaker euro by about 0.2%. are we losing momentum in the recovery? take a listen to what paul donovan of ebs had to say to us -- of ubs had to say to us. >> you've just spent three

months at home watching home makeover shows on netflix. what are you going to do? rush out and spend the money. that is exacted what happened. fading that come of the moment them obviously slows. jonathan: this is what james sweeney of credit suisse has to say. "without a successful deal, personal and business bankruptcies are likely to mount, and each directory of the recovery is at risk of a lower path. the path of u.s. household disposable income is in a central variable prefer the recovery." -- variable for further recovery." where is that deal on capitol hill? tom: the duration of this slowdown is extraordinary. joining us now is mr. sweeney of credit suisse. what do q1 and q2 look like if we don't get stimulus? james: if we don't get stimulus

and we don't have legislative flex ability to get new stimulus, which i think is the mixed result in the election possibility, then i think it is going to be a very difficult recovery. in thee of decline unemployment rate is likely to slow. business investment isn't going to pick up very sharply. and we will be on a lower trajectory than we otherwise would be. i thing it is important we have a flexible government that can help get back to full employment as quickly as possible. tom: what is the symbolism of a stock market up, the tech shock that we are seeing right now? jp morgan doing better in earnings. we will see what other banks do as well. that good news versus the credit suisse call of some real caution out there. how do you put those two together? james: even within the economy, you see a lot of conflicting signals about retail sales. consumption, on

services items has been very weak. construction investment has been good. business investment has been bad. the equity market is responding to the strength in retail sales, the strength in technology products, and low interest rates. until recently, it was responding to some rising economic data. now the economic data is slowing. lisa: it strikes me that this is a hard needle piece read for economists -- needle to thread for economists. it won't be accelerating enough. we won't see a fast enough recovery to avoid longer-term scarring. what do you say to people who argue that there is a cost for incurring more debt in order to pay forward the economic growth to millie rate any further suffering -- two in millie rate eliorate any further suffering now? james: you could look at it over a few months, over the very long

term. -- we know from economic history that in a recession, you don't necessarily return back to your old trends. just opportunism is what we need now. with such easy financing costs, you have an opportunity to help push the economy back towards its old trend as much as possible, and it is really possible that you never get back to it without adequate support. jonathan: james, that is worrying. the previous trend was already a worry for people on capitol hill, so let's talk about how much damage we could see in the future. what kind of numbers are you thinking about? looking maybe five years out, i can see gdp growth being 1% or 2% to below the long-term trend you might have projected before the pandemic, and then you run trend growth from there,

so you are at a permanently lower level. to me, that is just about the worst case scenario for growth. jonathan: walk me through the base case. you mention a couple of different forces there. lower confidence to invest, and you alluded to a demand shock for an extended time as well. in in about 50 my minutes -- about 55 minutes. when does inflation come from all of that? james: even in that worst case, there is a recovery. it is just a recovery that doesn't get you to a very good trajectory. if the economy is not operating at full potential, than the risks to inflation may be to the downside. but the weird thing is it does look like inflation is going to have a little bit of a pop above 2% next spring, next summer momentarily, and then come back down again maybe after next summer if the recovery is not adequate. we will start worrying about

very low inflation again. for now, inflation doesn't look all that much different from its 1.7% average over the last one he five years. lisa: basically, we are printing trillions of dollars and not seeing any inflation. is this basically saying that modern monetary theory, the federal reserve buying as much as the government has to sell, which seems to be what has happened, seems to be not that inflationary and is fine? run you aree short at zero interest rates, bonds are not very attractive over cash. if somebody has a little bit of extra cash, there's not that much incentive to sit on that cash. the extra money doesn't necessarily lead to persistent inflationary rocket fuel. but longer-term, a government with more liabilities is going to have different fiscal dynamics and risks. so there is a cost come but there's an opportunity right now to get the economy on a higher trend. tom: the calendar says it is

time to hold panels, time to ,old seminars with worthies time for institutions to get together and wring their hands about inequality. what has this pandemic done to american inequality? james: recessions always worsen inequality. we know from the attributes of the pandemic itself that that is true as well, which is extremely sad. getting the economy back to full employment is really what policy makers on the fiscal and monetary policy side can do to help inequality. further questions are about redistribution, and those need to be taken up in the congress if they want. i look at the inequality and the ability to come out of this. what is the size of appropriate stimulus? i asked of this about an hour ago. what is the sweeney number where stimulus actually works? a 1.5 trillion

dollars to $2 trillion stimulus would transform the short-term outlook. it would help households get another burst of cash flow, keep disposable income above trend. it would also potentially help state and local governments, so we would not see large job loss in that sector as we did last month. lisa: when you look at the high-frequency data, there's a question of how much the economy is slowing to the resurgence of virus. you see a material slowdown in the high-frequency data that has you concerned? james: yes, especially in europe, where the increase in the pandemic has been a little more severe. we saw this also in the summer. when we looked at high-frequency data, foot traffic, things like that, you did see these issues. but in a rising momentum economy, you can feel it. so if it was such a problem that you didn't get stimulus in august, why are retail sales so good?

the answer is we are still in the rebound, the rebound that began in may. we are not in that initial sharp return anymore, so as the data is being reverted to normal levels, you are going to feel shocks more. if the pandemic drags on growth that we are starting to see, it is one of those shocks. jonathan: great to catch up, as always. james sweeney of credit suisse, always tremendous to have him on the program. today, cpi. tomorrow, ppi. the big data point of the week coming at the backend. counting you down to the opening bell in new york this tuesday morning, big lift for nasdaq futures. wait, 100 up about what i 0.9%. up about 108, we've got to talk about the politics this morning as well. from the president back on the

campaign trail, onto pennsylvania today, iowa tomorrow, then onto north carolina. tom: you wonder what mr. biden will be doing as well. there was a little more biden in the papers today than the shocking dearth of biden yesterday. i've never seen the polar opposite of the two campaigns that you see right now. jonathan: we will discuss with kevin cirilli in a moment. times" in theyork last 24 hours, eight point lead .or biden in michigan these are states that the president flipped and beat hillary clinton in ia very near margin. i will give you the biden lead, but anytime in america this divided, we see a 10% separation, i really have trouble with that. really -- to mr.'s a

to mr. cirilli on this because he is so powerful. jonathan: i am not sure how powerful kevin cirilli is, but i think most people assume that now almost universally, everyone is lining up to tell us how bullish it is. lisa: whether it means we will get a huge fiscal support bill and the economy will keep on chugging, there is an interesting disagreement here among analysts. what happens if democrats don't win the senate? that could be a huge bear situation for the market because that would mean gridlock. deter any future fiscal rounds. that is something to watch, particularly for market reaction. jonathan: i agree, but on the morning of november 4, whatever the price action is doing, they will come up with a . let's say the senate stayed

republican -- with a new line. save -- let's say the senate stays were publican. they will say, this is good. there is always a story to spend. tom: i'm looking for an entry point. let me know what you see. jonathan: down three on the s&p, up big time on nasdaq 100 futures. in the next hour, catherine mann of citigroup, chief economist, a little later here on bloomberg. ♪ kailey: with the first word news, i'm kailey leinz. president trump's diving right back into campaigning. he told an audience in florida he felt so powerful after recovering from the virus, he wanted to kiss everybody. there was little social distancing at the rally at the orlando sanford international airport. some spectators did wear masks. joe biden says he is not a fan of expanding the supreme court. it is his clearest answer on the

issue yet after weeks of dodging the question. biden was speaking in an interview in cincinnati. the idea has gained traction among democrats. many are angry that republicans are rushing through the confirmation of amy coney barrett. to run a virus infections are soaring in several republican -- coronavirus infections are soaring in several republican includings, wisconsin. at disney a shakeup is revamping its operations to focus on the thriving disney+ business. the goal is to become a global streaming giant like netflix. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm kailey leinz. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york and london, good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and

radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures advancing on the nasdaq, up 0.9%, adding some weight to the rally of yesterday. on the s&p 500, just a little move lower. we shave about four points off the s&p. jd morgan still firmer in the premarket, up by around 1% -- jp morgan still firmer in the premarket, up by about 1%. citi reporting in 12 minutes. that will be the story for banks at the top of the hour. tom:tom: i really want to emphasize each bank is different. i thing it is going to be on at jping to see dim morgan and corbat, his legacy at citigroup, the difference there. it will be a completely different tone. jonathan: you know the story on jp morgan. if jamie dimon is asked, five more years is often the answer,

for the last 10 years. tom: at least, i would say. right now let's go to the presidential election. kevin cirilli joins us, our chief washington correspondent. i don't want to get into polls and all of that. i know you are exhausted from the day today. who is the silent majority now? you don't remember spiro agnew. i do. there is a silent vote out there somewhere. identify that silent vote right now, kevin cirilli. kevin: go to center puts a when you and on the outskirts of central pennsylvania -- two pennsylvania and on the outskirts of central pennsylvania. those individuals who are looking at the economy and looking at what they feel are some ill each members of the cities, will they show up for the polls for president trump?

i am really struck by just how the republican machine in operation is not trying to make a coalition, but trying to amplify -- not trying to do a traditional coalition, but trying to amplify conservatives to show up to the polls. tom: what is the democratic machine doing to get there silent vote out? kevin: they are trying to keep those spreads down in traditionally conservative districts, and to run up the score in suburbs. the republicans aren't even trying to win at this point in the suburbs. they are just trying to keep the margins of victory for the democrats significantly down. but in terms of, case in point, what you saw yesterday with democratic presidential nominee joe biden saying he is not a fan of packing the supreme court, it was a clear calculation to try to win over suburban voters and affirm assertion that he feels he's got the base of the party secured. jonathan: female suburban voters

with a massive lead towards the former vp, joe biden. pick a pole right now, and it doesn't look good for the president of the united states. for wisconsin and pennsylvania, a 7% lead. the one thing that comes up again and again is this idea of new voter registrations in key states for the republican party. can you walk us through that argument? kevin: i remember over these summer speaking with the chairwoman of the republican party. her stat had been telling me for quite some time that they feel this is an area where republicans have been able to make up solid ground and outpace their voter registration from what they saw at 2016 levels. they view that as a sign and an illustration that president trump has been able to attract new members to the party, members that have been disenfranchised since republican time,cs for quite some and that democrats have not made a case for. so it will be really interesting

to see if those voters show up to the polls on election day. lisa: there's also a question about, basically, if you go to florida, the seniors there are going to have a very big effect on the selection. how big of an impact to the double covestro club have -- the del boca vista club have? kevin: according to a poll yesterday, there is a three point spread in florida, so still within the margin of error. president trump made new claims that he would provide free health care for senior citizens, and that they would essentially be getting a check. to be honest, there hasn't been a substantial policy proposal that has been foot porth -- that has been put forth, but it is clearly a sign that the president and his campaign are trying to make inroads with seniors.

they made the calculus and that senior citizens and the response to covid-19 would be a local issue, but in a state like florida, republicans are in control there, in contrast to a state like new york. tom: there's other states as well, but is it 26 electoral votes in florida? what is the latino, hispanic, cuban update? kevin: especially in a state like florida, you've got cuban-americans who have been traditionally leaning more republican for a strong percentage of them, with catholic religious ties. and especially you look at the hispanic vote in florida, and you have to factor in foreign policy issues like venezuela, for example. and on the notion of cuba, that has been an area where the president has been able to outperform even mitt romney levels from several cycles ago, so they feel confident in that. but again, it is the suburbs

that have been breaking for biden that spell a lot of political trouble for them. agothan: a couple of months , october 15 was in red ink and washington, d.c. is that over? not happening, no debate. kevin: yeah, i think that is a fair assessment. jonathan: i since a little bit of doubt there, kevin. you would have thought that would be the day in the diary for the president to really turn things around. that's when the polls started to go south on him, straight after that debate and going into that question we can for him when he tested positive for covid-19 asked that crushing we can for him when he tested positive for covid-19 -- that crushing we can for him when he tested positive for covid-19. tom: everybody ends up where they can't speak at the end of one of these elections. that is always the case. you can barely talk, you are so exhausted. but this is a president recovering from this illness.

morgan,g on jp citigroup i want to talk about, i just did a study of jp morgan compared to citigroup, and it is what is called a three standard deviation delta. all you've got to know is it is stunning, the outperformance of jp morgan versus citigroup back a decade. jonathan: and the stock price is absolutely phenomenal. there?u like delta in jonathan: i love it. that's what i come to work for every morning. [laughter] lisa sounds so excited about all of it. those numbers coming in about five minutes. citigroup just around the corner. jp morgan firmer in the premarket, up a little more than 1%. from new york and london this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. coming up very shortly, with big tech outperforming this 24

hours, christopher harvey, wells fargo head of equity strategy. the nasdaq absolutely flying. up next, earnings from citigroup. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ so you're a small business,

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♪ stimulus,ner we get the more moment and we can keep in economic recovery. >> i think we will be stunned by the degree of earnings upgrades. >> the risk is that the economy accelerates to quickly. >> we are still in the greatest economic shock in over 50 years. >> the market will hear what it wants to hear, and right now this market wants to go higher. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. on radio, on television