matt: shiny new apple, the tech giant unveils its latest range of iphones. , wall street expects growth for the company. call for a circuit breaker, boris johnson -- -- goldman sachs and bank of america and wells fargo report later today. fall.gan and citi shares the morning and welcome to

"bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. a lot a focus is on the bank results yesterday. many more banks reporting today with technology stocks and apple news. we expect a lot of earnings, and pound weakening, something to keep an eye on. stocks,ook at european travel shares declining on concern of more lockdowns, but financial shares are climbing. they'd are today, our active etf, new surveys say active equity funds underperformed in the first half of the year. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. >> good morning. here in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson is facing growing pressure to order a national circuit breaker lockdown. the opposition labour party is

calling for increased nationwide restrictions for up to three weeks, after documents revealed the scientific advisors called for that action three weeks ago. the sprint to find a medical breakthrough to contain coronavirus stumbled this week. eli lilly is the latest company to pause a trial as a safety concern. it is developing an antibody therapy for those with severe cases of covid-19. this follows a similar move by johnson & johnson after a trial volunteer fell ill. house speaker nancy pelosi is calling on the white house to revamp its latest offer. mitch mcconnell is pushing for a smaller scale strategy that pelosi quickly rejected. mcconnell's proposal appeared to be opposed by donald trump, who tweeted, "go big or go home." blackrock's larry fink said the world could be greener if office

buildings never reach full capacity again. speaking at an imf event hosted by bloomberg, he said if half of the workers returned to office, traffic could be induced in quality of life improved. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt: -- francine: apple unveiled the newest iphones promising they will be lighter with 5g technology. it hopes the launch of the iphone 12 will launch new growth. >> each generation of cellular technology has breakthrough innovations and new opportunities for developers and users. yets the most exciting step

. for so many people, this becomes real with 5g coming to iphone. francine: joining us now is alex webb, our bloomberg tech columnist. what are the upgrades that a consumer might find attractive? alex: four new phones here. 12, the standard sizes, will come in two andthe pro versions have 5g better range protection and photography. it allows for augmented reality in the phone fields of vision. those of the headline innovations. a few other things around the wallet charger on the back which has a magnet in it to attach things to the phones.

we have reset our expectations of what we think of as game changing innovation. the biggest is 5g. at the moment there are not many applications for the technology. it will have slightly better download speeds, but that will not necessarily be something that will change people's experience. francine: how big of a selling point is the faster 5g iphone? alex: at the moment there are not many networks. it does not make a big difference. they will come in the next 5-10 years. 5g is not there yet, it is a way to get people to spend more money on their phones. has significant 5g networks already, there are already over 400,000 antenna for 5g across the country. the u.s. is in single-digit

thousands. with 5g you have huawei phones on the market. if you are a consumer wondering what to get, with or without 5g, you might as well go with. in china you might want to make that argument. ,rancine: thank you so much alex webb, talking all things technology. coming up, eli lilly halts its antibody trials because of safety concerns. we discussed the state of covid in europe, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance. " >> tencent is planning to increase its universal music , and tells bloomberg the chinese tech giant will make the move for its option expires in january. last year the company led a got music from vivendi. the world's biggest cinema chain is considering bankruptcy. sources tell bloomberg it is part of a range of options for amc entertainment as it tries to ease its debt load, as the pandemic is keeping moviegoers from the big screen and hampering studios from making new movies. no official comment from amc. fidelity investment plans to

hire 4000 people over the next six months. it will be in areas including financial advisors and customer service. it will mean a 15% increase in roles, and insisting existing clients will make more money as its peers struggle. hope for a quick virus cure takes another hit. eli lilly is the latest to halt clinical trials of its antibody therapy because of safety concerns. shares fell like johnson & johnson. several european countries are taking steps to control its record surge in cases. citizens are being called to make sacrifices. bars and pubs are closing today and the worst hit parts of england as boris johnson faces growing pressure for a stricter lockdown. joining us now is melanie baker,

senior economist, royal london asset management. we heard the imf bank, when you look at the economy, maybe it is better than expected, or revised upwards. but we have so much concern about some of the downside risks. do you see those crystallizing? this will always be a difficult phase of the recovery. the initial recovery was driven by reopening with help from policy and pent-up demand. this will be a slower and more difficult phase of the recovery. ,e knew there would be setbacks and that is very much what we are seeing. it is in line with many economists forecasts, a bumpy period before we get a vaccine. it comes back to the point you were making that getting to a

vaccine is important for a normalized phase of recovery next year. at some: when you look of the things that worry the market, where will we see the most scarring of the economy? melanie: one area most economists are worried about our permanent job losses. you can see if you look at the u.s. numbers for example, they are improving, jobs are being added, but you can see under the surface that permanent job losses arising. that is a concern. havef the other worries i is around balance sheet damage, the amount of debt companies have to take on to get through the crisis, and how that goes on to limit the recovery in investment and hiring as we go forward. francine: when you look at some

of the things that markets look they detached to what economists are seeing longer-term for some of the pressures we could have in a second locked down further restrictions? is an interesting point, i don't think so. markets are looking quite long, a little bit through in some .ense economist are doing a mixture of things. they are worried about the near term bumpy picture for the economy, but also looking ahead and assuming the pandemic will a over and we will go back to sense of normality. economists and markets are thinking about these longer-term possible impacts as well, and whether the pandemic accelerates

some of the structural changes that we have been seeing, moving to online shopping in such. talk about the u.s. election and politics. 20 days until the u.s. election. president trump and former vice president biden hit the campaign trail in pennsylvania and florida with different messages. favor,k you to do me a suburban women, will you like me? i saved your damn neighborhood. i don't have time to be nice. they want me to be politically correct. let's talk about it for the next 10 years -- no. we saved suburbia in the u.s. >> i'm running as a proud democrat, but i will govern as

an american president. [cars honking] i will work for those who vote against me, those who voted for me, that is the job of the president, to heal. it is a duty to care. care for everyone. francine: meanwhile, u.s. stimulus is deadlocked as nancy pelosi asks the white house to revamp its offer. it says the $1.8 trillion package falls short. let's get back to melanie baker, senior economist, royal london asset management. if you look at the stimulus needed for the u.s. economy, are you worried it will fall short, and what does that mean for inflation expectations going forward? melanie: it has already fallen

short. there was expectation early in the year that if by july we had another fiscal package to carry on the package that expired, it has already fallen short in that sense. you saw in the august personal income numbers, personal disposable income which is about the fallen unemployment benefits. that disappointment has already happened. there is widespread expectation once we are through the election period, maybe we wait until eight january but there will be another fiscal package in the u.s., that is built into my expectations. now, and it is looking increasingly unlikely we will get any before the election. it is a near-term warrior for consumer spending. as for inflation expectations, as long as there is an

expectation it will come through at some point next year, i think that is ok. in the meantime we have seen action from the fed to try to bolster inflation expectations. francine: if you go back to the recovery we are expecting worldwide, are we too pessimistic or optimistic? melanie: it depends on who you ask. you have a difference in view, but if i look at the forecast published by the imf yesterday, they are not far off the forecasts that a lot of economist are expecting, which is that initial v-shaped, now it is getting bumpy. once we get a widely available vaccine and can return to normal, this is a recovery that will take more quarters than multiple years to get back to precrisis levels.

at some: when you look of the asian countries, are they going to -- we looked at export numbers out of china, are they going to do better than the u.s. and europe in the next 12 months? that is aof, difficult one. certainly china has benefited from fiscal stimulus elsewhere. and also producing a lot of things the world has been demanding in terms of medical equipment, ppe. necessarily going to last through the next year, and there are issues around trade relations, u.s.-trade relations which will go into the future years. i do not see a reason why -- the u.s. will get fiscal stimulus next year and a widely available

vaccine, i don't see why we wouldn't see a strong recovery ultimately in the u.s. francine: the biggest concern of markets is there is a runaway inflation because of the stimulus, that it surprises us and we will have stimulus from central banks taken away more quickly than we think. how likely is that? yous it -- is it something are writing off or monitoring for a couple of quarters? melanie: runaway inflation risk, it is something i am monitoring but not built in for my central case forecast. part of the reason is i'm assuming this current relationship between monetary and fiscal policy, whether there is an element of coordination putting maximum stimulus into the economy, that does not last. we have still got independent central banks that when inflation gets a little out of hand will reverse course and start raising rates.

that is naive but where i am coming from at the moment. we have seen a huge amount of stimulus in the system and changes in the approach to monetary policy. it is something that monitors are watching. francine: thank you so much, melanie: -- thank you so much melanie baker, senior economist, royal london asset management. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." in london.e lacqua jp morgan and citigroup are reporting better-than-expected earnings yesterday, but shares of the group were actually down. joining to discuss all of the earnings season is dani burger. why were investors is appointed yesterday? sentiment returned while executives were speaking on the earnings call. at first people were excited that they collectively reported loan losses that were half the amount expected, but they made clear it was not a fundamental change on their view on the economy. isy could afford not to do much this quarter. they painted a picture of an

economy that is a slow grind to recovery. jp morgan's cfo emphasized this on the call and said they expect significant charge offs when it comes to 2021, but until then it might be a pause. this commentary will be the focus we hear from goldman sachs and bank of america today. francine: citi fell more than two times as much is jp morgan. some of their higher costs and reckitt a tory will not be the next wells fargo in terms of regulatory pressure. another analyst asked why not put the coming ceo in now to show a clear change. some very strong words on the analyst calls. much,ne: thank you very dani burger. yesterday we had the asset

manager a blackrock reporting. coming up, are active etf's worth the money? 40% of active funds underperformed in the first half of the year. we will debate active versus passive in our weekly show "etf iq europe." the rest of our focus is on bank earnings. we have more bank earnings today, wells fargo and bank of america later today. european stocks are mixed. travel concerns over further lockdowns. the dollar putting much steady. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: welcome to bloomberg etf europe. over the next 30 minutes we will be your guide to the region's thriving market and exchange traded funds, everything you

need to know about the funds and the flows. francine: actively disappointing. 42% -- have already topped last year's totals. we will discuss what is next for fixed income prospects. let's take a look at which countries and sectors have been tracking the money. here is dani burger with the details. dani: have fs lol, and this looks at etf -- over the past month we have seen net inflows