for airtime in two very different town halls. the election is 18 days away. walk or talk. u.k. prime minister boris johnson will decide today if he'll abandon brexit negotiations. it comes as e.u. leaders refuse to give a clear signal on prospects for a deal. and back to the skies. europe's top regulator deems boeing's troubled 737 max safe to fly. the models could return to the region's airspace by the end of the year. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. i don't know where to start. we have about 15 news flows. focusing on the u.s. election, focusing on brexit talks, because something could move there. actually, i found the boeing 737 max story interesting, the fact that regulators find it safe enough to fly. tom: in a bit of a supply. we will know if the staff gets on it -- we will know that 18 else.

that 18 out. to see fascinating is the two different debates find, but then have it coalesce into a running stream on different websites and different media, including bloomberg. it was amazing. it was something completely modern and completely different. like a european debate, tom, is how i would maybe describe it. you got a lot more policy than in the last debate. and possible shifting in some minds. get to first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: president trump and joe biden were on tv last night at the same time but on different channels. they held competing televised town halls. instead of debating as the schedule had originally called for. at nbc, the president said he knew the coronavirus was a huge danger. pres. trump: i knew it was a big

threat. at the same time, i don't want to panic this country. i don't want to come out and say everybody's going to die. ritika: in a town hall monitor rated -- moderated by george stephanopoulos, biden was asked if he would take a vaccine once it is approved. mr. biden: if the body of scientists say that this is what is ready to be done and it has been tested and has gone through the three phases, yes, i would take it and i would encourage people to take it. ritika: the two candidates will face next week in the final presidential debate. president trump will lean on mitch mcconnell if that is what is needed to get a stimulus bill passed, according to steven mnuchin. he told nancy pelosi that the president would personally lobby reluctant senate republicans. mcconnell wants a bill that is much smaller than the boat -- then the proposal being considered by the white house and pelosi. it is breaks decision day for

boris johnson. the british prime minister is set to decide whether to abandon trade talks at the european union. the leaders have failed to give johnson that deal that he wants to remain at the negotiating table. the top aviation regulator in europe says boeing's rebound -- boeings 737 max is safe to fly. it has been grouted for more than a year because of two fatal accidents. boeing still has to get approval for the faa for the plane can fly again in the u.s. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. i only have one board this morning. i'm going to go to the 10-year yield, going from 0.69 out now

to 0.73. i'm going to call a little bit of a yield backup, ebbing away in the last two or three hours of trading. francine, the euro at 1.1705. a weaker euro seems to be a new theme in fx. francine: and something that could sway the european central bank, their policy decision. the british pound reversing some of thursday's drop versus the euro. the british prime minister said to decide on friday whether to abandon trade talks with e.u. after the leaders refused to give him a clear indication they are ready to compromise. this will be a difficult decision for the prime minister. stocks in general are gaining. we had corporate news that was positive and people are getting used to these extra restrictions to curb the pandemic. joining us to talk about the markets is george saravelos,

deutsche bank's global head of fx strategy. great to speak with you today. especially on a day where they could be a lot going on with pound. s the right one to look at euro-pound, euro-sterling. george: good morning, francine. yes, we always prefer to look at dollar-pound. debateal versus no deal is running out of steam in importance. i think the market is realizing that even if you do get a deal, as is increasingly now being priced. you will still have a big negative shock at the end of the year. very is all sorts of complex things that will happen to trade. for instance, the issue of accumulation. the u.k. will no longer be able to export cars with foreign

parts. so we will still be a negative even if you still get a deal, and the market is realizing that and that is why the pound is in rallying that much, even as expectations of the deal build. what happens if there is no deal? is there a 50/50 chance that we get a deal, or is it higher right now? or is the market ignoring a chance of a no deal? george: i think the odds of the deal are much higher, probably closer to 80% or 90%. remember, the prime minister threatened to pull out by the 15th if there wasn't a deal. but it is looking like, based on news reporting, that talks will go ahead. if you do get no deal, the sterling reaction is going to be very negative because that is -- the market will worry about a withdrawal agreement. remember, the u.k. has been taken to court by the e.u. for potential breach of that. the sterling reaction will be very negative in no deal, but by

key message would be that in the event that we do get a deal, we will not get a big rally because it is already priced, and the benefits of the deal will be limited anyway. the other thing that is worth noting is we have this focus on covid cases that are rising, restrictions again, but what is remarkable is the government's reluctance for more aggressive fiscal stimulus. all of the european economies in continental europe have expanded the furlough schemes, they are with the help, and u.k.'s doing will be damaging to the economy. study of capital flows or interest-rate differentials? george: it will be both. to primes both do tend the markets, the real big event, the paramount event risk is the u.s. election, which you talked about. , think there is huge potential

interest rates and capital flows. so we think the potential by the presidency is underpriced in terms of the impact if we do get that. tom: what is the direction on that? significantly weaker dollar. we have already seen the first signs of dollar weakness in q2. potentialere is more for dollar weakness, especially against the emerging currencies, and even though the euro has been weak over the last few days, we have seen how well asian currencies are holding up, especially in china this morning. tom: an unfair question, but it is unfair friday, george saravelos -- are you talking about a 3% move or something much larger, or are you talking about -- george: i think much larger,

tom. we could potentially be talking 15% lower move, especially against emerging markets. when you look at some of the things that we are worried about, how does it play out in currencies that are considered havens? we worry about the lockdown and inflation, so what would you do with yen or swiss franc? george: here is how to think about these things. it does all go back to the u.s. election. i think in the event of a biden presidency, the market will significantly reassess foreign policy. imagine waking up to a world where we don't have to check our twitter account every day to understand trade policy and tariffs on china. that in itself is a very big risk premium on the dollar. i think around 10%.

the more predictable foreign policy would be driving a weaker dollar. to the policy mix, in terms of this unprecedented combination -- ary -- of fiscal eating fiscal easing, if the presidency goes democratic -- that should benefit emerging markets. the key one in terms of thinking about the risks to the virus is a vaccine. we monitor the news flow closely and we expect the vaccine after december, and the market is forward-looking, so even if we don't get a rollout, i think the market would react very positively to a vaccine announcement, combined with the u.s. election. tom: absolutely fascinating and valuable on a friday. we will come back with george saravelos and look at this troubling united kingdom story of brexit and pandemic. market, a churn to the the market looking for information and looking for

direction. gideon rose will join us, a monthly review of his foreign affairs magazine. this is an exceptionally strong and the capitalism future of international relations. stay with us. from london, from new york, this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

pres. trump: i knew it was a big threat. at the same time, i don't want to panic this country. i don't want to come out and say everybody's going to die. 4% of the we have world population and we have 20% of the world's deaths. what is he doing?

nothing. pres. trump: we had the greatest economy in the history of our country, last year in the state of florida where we are now, pennsylvania, every place -- the greatest economy we have ever had. we had to close it down, we saved 2 million lives. a vpened it up, we have shape, and it is coming back very fast. mr. biden: you have 91% of foreign countries not paying a penny. with a fair tax, you would raise $1,300,000,000,000 by that one act. pres. trump: i don't know about qanon. >> you do know. pres. trump: i don't know. what i do know is that they are very much against pedophilia, and i agree with that. i'd and co--- , who is a when asked

better leader, the president came behind putin as well as xi. and look at what putin is doing. moments lastthe night of truly dueling town halls, the right way to put it. president trump and vice president biden, really beginning to wind into the weekend. one of the changes this week is the shift we see out there. i have been guilty of avoiding a theme which is part of this presidential campaign. we talk about that theme now with george saravelos of deutsche bank. i never really worry about it, george, because i have never bought the story, but let's bring it up, on the use organ in privilege of the u.s. dollar -- on the exorbitant privilege of the u.s. dollar. it goes back to france a zillion years ago. is there any threat to the u.s'' exorbitant privilege if we see

the debt and deficit that the vice president spoke about last night? george: i would be less concerned about that, tom. i think the key thing is what the central bank is doing, and if the central bank is there for the debt market, look at japan. japan jet to gdp is above 200% and japan has never had a crisis because the bank of japan owns nearly half of the debt stock. so to be the dollar story is less about that and a lot more about the policy mix. when i think could happen if you do get the policy shift after the u.s. election we have been talking about is this really unusual mix of what is keeping rates low and expansionary fiscal policy at the same time. historically when you get that mix, it is an attempt to -- tom: my chart of the year two years ago was a retake of the

twin deficits, the overlay of the fiscal deficit, the overlay of the trade deficit. i don't know the number, but we are well out past two standard deviations through their to an ever larger between deficit. doesn't that by definition lead to a structural instability which further weakens dollars? crystalso here is the thing, tom. it is all about the fed. if you think about 2016 at 2017, the fed tried to cancel the trump stimulus. they were worried about unemployment being too low. they kept hiking even as the economy slows down, and they raised real rates. so back then, with similar stories about extreme deficit, the dollar strengthens. this time the big difference is the fed will act procyclical he. if anything, they could do more easing to prevent yields from going up. and that to me is the critical difference. the fed remains dovish, and

december is important if the markets reprice after the election. that to me is the key dollar negative driver into next year. francine: that is very important, what you're just saying. what does it mean for emerging-market currencies? george: i would be, of all the currencies, most positive on emerging-market currencies because we are talking about an environment where u.s. external accounts are widening. you are seeing growth leakage to the rest of the world. if you look at valuations in emerging markets, they have never been cheaper. -- externaldity accounts have been improving, even in places like south africa or brazil. and of course the market is very underweight emerging markets, because we have been through so many years of crisis. we are reaching a tipping point, and depending on the outcome of the u.s. election, and of course

the potential shift in foreign policy and trade policy we are talking about, we could be in for a substantial rally in emerging-market currencies, and of course we are already seeing it in asia. look at how well the market is -- how well asia currencies are trading on the back of how asia has gone following the crisis. if we get joe biden in the white house, what would be the biggest shift on foreign policy? i know we talked about the u.s.-china trade war, which would be different under a democrat, but would it really be different in substance? george: i think it would. the biggest shift would be returning to more predictability in trade policy. to having toed check twitter every day or every hour to see how u.s. foreign trade policy is changing. andou look back to 2016

2017 to try to qualify that impact, it is very large. uncertainty was increasing, you saw a big slowdown in global capex. policy becoming more predictable i think would be a huge event for the market. but they would be a move away from current and unilateral foreign policy. that in itself should benefit emerging markets and growth. francine: thank you so much, george saravelos of deutsche bank, still with us. we will have plenty more from george and we will talk more about what is also the long-term economic impact of commodity rich currencies such as the easy one dollar. at 12:00 p.m. in new york, 5:00 p.m. in london -- this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is member surveillance. my ritika gupta with your bloomberg business flash.

an attack on the popular robinhood markets app was more widespread than previously known. almost 2000 accounts were compromised in a hacking spree that siphoned off customer funds. last week robinhood said a number of customers had been struck by cyber criminals. mar'smark's group -- jack and group -- bloomberg has learned that aunt's target is $280 billion because of strong demand, to raise about $35 billion in the sale. the company plans to list shares in hong kong and shanghai on the same day. daimler posted better-than-expected profit, recovering car sales and cost cuts also gave the company the confidence to predict its momentum will last through the end of the year. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. tom: thanks so much. equities, bonds, currencies,

commodities. a quiet screen right now, running green on the equity screen in the united states. what i want to point out is the persistence of sustained negative interest rates in europe. are we out the lows, francine? greater negative rates? pound ine are at the germany and switzerland. francine: i think there are questions about what the limit of that could be. i'm also looking at some of the stocks -- for example, lvmh shares dumping after they saw demand for rebounded the third quarter, so we are getting better than expected earnings in certain industry groups, a bit of a lift to stocks in europe. british pound reversing some of the drop versus the euro that we had yesterday, and we expect to hear from prime minister johnson on whether they will abandon trade talks with e.u. on brexit, and of course on negative rates. we will talk to paul tucker, former boe deputy governor. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we are really assuming interest rates are pretty well zero for any reasonable planning horizon. it could be worse than that, in that the bank of england had been asking already this week to think about how we would cope with negative interest rates. i hope we do not go there. but that's clearly a possible outcome. i guessed most banks would be looking at effectively zero interest rates for the foreseeable future. tom: this is one of the great privileges of doing this. as all of you know, i don't have a job. i don't know if francine has a job. i will let her decide. francine: i have a full-time job, tom. tom: you get to talk to sir howard, and then you get to talk to, without question, the number one guy in thinking about our

institutions and regulations. he's a former bank of england deputy governor, paul tucker. hasne, i mean no one, thought harder about these institutions moving forward. ," it'sk "unelected power a little bit wonky but absolutely definitive. in this election season and what you see central bankers like you doing, how do they deal with almighty citizen, the power that is out there, the over mighty electorate? paul: well, they have become -- first of all, great to be with you again. they have become even more mighty. you are sitting in a country where the rulers are now the supreme court, followed only by the federal reserve. you are about to have an election to elect the person who nominates the rulers, the supreme court.

the federal reserve becomes the economic powerhouse. we have been through months now where congress -- obviously, there are splits between the house and senate, democrats and republicans. they are know they can sit on their hands and ultimately do nothing, because the federal reserve will try to do more. this is a desperate position to be in. at some point, some central banker somewhere is going to say , the reason you should not rely we have much, much less ammunition left than in 20 08 and 2009. you have got to provide fiscal support, however awkward it is, because that is what the world economy needs. tom: when we look at this, there is a question of unraveling it. outcome when the we finally get back to legislators and executive branches making responsible decisions and taking the burden off of our central banks?

what will be the financial outcome of that? some i think we would see shift in asset markets, asset values central banks have been effectively propping up asset values since the spring. weather aty easy to crisis when the central bank does not allow asset prices to fall. at some point, i don't want to overplay this, but there will be some kind of reckoning, and it will come partly through defaults, partly through a fall in asset values, but there will be great opportunities as well in the real economy. this terrible pandemic is going to shift the structure of our economies in unknowable ways, and that provides opportunities, provided that labor markets work well enough to get people into

jobs where there are opportunities. francine: how do you balance health and economic concerns? paul: i must say, i have found that kind of health versus economy trade-off, which seems to be internalized in some governments, absolutely bizarre. i mean, there is no way back for the economy to something tolerably normal without a , or somethinge that removes the fear that causes people to want to to the-home or not go restaurant, not go to the bars. medium-term horizon that we have not really seen in many of the major economies. of course, and march and april, perhaps even into may, it was an emergency. since then, it has been time -- there has been time to recognize where we are now will last into

the middle of next year, maybe this time next year, maybe a little bit longer. they have got to have a strategy that they can explain to the public that marries health care with the economy. this is not an ideological thing. somehow, policymakers have allowed this to become a red versus blue thing. francine: how do you do it? even if you look at localized restrictions or lockdowns, certain people push against tha t. so, it is about making a choice. paul: tracing matters, tracking, tracing, and testing. tracing, testing, and making people who really need to isolate when they have got the virus isolate is really, really important. that -- it is easy to say that, but that is actually an operation that takes a few

months, rather than a few weeks, to put into place. but it can still pay dividends. tom: paul tucker, two days ago, the president really went after the quote gated elites. he really took off after the elites and their benefits in crisis and the economy, all of the themes of president trump. the gated elites that are perceived in the unelected power of our institutions. unfold? that years, ihink that for think the general public, the people do not want to rely on unelected people for the most important decisions in their lives. it's why any reason, congress should act. today,s ago and again

they have avoided the economy, going into a vortex, which would be, we have not revisited the great depression. it has made very rich people even richer. and that is just completely galling, particularly in the united states, where inequality has increased over the past many decades. median incomes have been stagnant. this is grim. the people we elect must do something about this. that is not an ideological point. that is saying, we are democracies, it's a privilege to live in a democracy. so let the people we elect to govern. , thank you soer much, greatly appreciated at this time. i really cannot say enough about his unelected power. it is a wonderful, wonderful effort thinking about the future of these institutions. right now, we think about oil futures. it is friday, they are churning. we need to be saved by a

bloomberg first word news. here's ritika gupta. ritika: president trump on one channel, joe biden was on another. the town hall events were placed the debates that had been scheduled for last night. president trump was asked about qanon. pres. trump: i don't know about qanon. >> you do know. pres. trump: i don't know. what i do know is that they are very much against pedophilia, and i agree with that. ritika: meanwhile, in a town hall moderated by george stephanopoulos, biden was asked if he would take a coronavirus was asked if democrats should pack the supreme court. mr. biden: it won't be about what's going on out, the improper way to perceive it. >> don't voters have a right to know? mr. biden: they do have a right to know where i stand. they don't have a right to know where i stand before i vote. >> they will have a decision

come election day? ritika: the candidates will face off next week in the final presidential debate. president trump fell well short of joe biden last month when it came to fundraising, according to a filing. the trump campaign and the publican national committee raised almost $240 million in september. a day earlier, biden announced it had taken in a record 383 million. the coronavirus has marched across the u.s. midwest and has caught up with the region's most populous states, illinois, ohio, and michigan. they are seeing big jumps in cases. yesterday, illinois reported more than 4000 new cases, a record in michigan -- a record. in michigan, hospitalizations have risen. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson's coronavirus strategy has descended into chaos three days after it was announced. government scientists are calling for an emergency lockdown to slow the rate of

infections. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i ameresco grouped up. this is bloomberg. francine: coming up, we will be talking about the u.s. election, talking policy with peter trubowitz, professor of international relations. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

♪ we find ourselves in a position where we are more isolated in the world and we have ever been. -- america first

has made america alone. pres. trump: i want a stimulus. the republicans want to approve a stimulus. she does not want to do it because she thinks it's bad for her election. francine: what -- tom: what an historic moment last night, no other way to put it. the president and vice president in a dueling debate, a different approach. , theve the expert on this university of texas at austin is places for thet study of democracy. peter trubowitz joins us now from the london school of economics and their professor of international relations, but for decades at austin thinking about the political process. thank you so much for joining us. what we saw last night is original. is it a new path? will it endure? peter: that's hard to say. it certainly was not kennedy-nixon. but i will say, tom, it was more

informative than actually the first debate. of course, people would say that's a pretty low bar. bidenght that last night, had a couple of rough patches, which were mentioned at the top of the segment here. the question from stephanopoulos about extending -- expanding the size of the supreme court. by and large, i think he avoided making unforced heirs, which i think -- errors, which i think his team will take as a win at this point in the race. i thought trump was alert, feisty, quite combative, i think, with savannah guthrie. i don't know how that will play. tom: peter, i don't want to interrupt, but we are going to get the play on this through the day. what i want to know from you is going from kennedy-nixon up through the debates of the 1980's and 1990's, when you were at m.i.t., and now onto the formula.

is this going to be the new formula for debates? peter: well, you know, it could be something like this. format has debate clearly broken down in this cycle. informationnt of that comes from them is limited. on the other hand, the problem here is that you do not really get to see them head-to-head. a complication and that is a problem. i have to think that this is not the way that it is going to be in the future. i am not sure we are going to go back to the kinds of debates that we have had in the past, especially if you have got people basically filibustering during the debate. people,: professor, do what's the one thing that we need to know? whether people show up and vote and actually looking at what we are hearing right now, is turnout going to be record-breaking? peter: turnout looks like it's going to be very, very big right

now, as donald trump might say. i am keeping my eyes on two trends that are crosscutting come i would say. the first -- crosscutting, i would say. the first, we are seeing a spike in early voting numbers. we are also seeing a rise in republican voting registration. on early voting, it looks like basically the president may have scared many democrats into -- and independent voters into voting early. week, the of this expectations are that 40 million americans will have voted, will have cast their ballot. that is a huge number. in 2016, the total number of ballots that was cast was 138 million, so that's a big deal. -- itld mean a lot if we could mean that we have a much clearer picture on election night in some of these bellwether states like florida,

north carolina, about who will be the eventual winner, because their votes will be tallied much sooner and early and they also tally quickly the mail-in ballots. i just want to point this out, there is another underreported story, i think come on white -- i think, on white, non-educated voters. they are registering to vote in much greater numbers than in 2016. i think this is good news for donald trump, especially given the problems that he appears to be having with white, college-educated voters this time around. francine: professor, if there is a big turnout, as expected, and we trust the polls, and that seems to be what you're intimating, what needs to happen from now until november 3 for joe not to become president -- joe biden not to become president? peter: donald trump needs to

change the narrative and he's running out of road. the contest right now remains where it's been since late spring. it is basically a referendum on his handling of the pandemic. everything he is trying to change the conversation has not worked so far. that's what he has to do. tom: you wrote for chatham house last year a brilliant essay on dysfunction in this nation in the american century. we have clearly observed dysfunction in this process, including what we witnessed last night. how is that american century doing? peter: not too good right now, tom. that's the problem. right now, the country is deeply , deeply polarized and it just has trouble getting things done programmatically. this did not start on donald trump's watch, but it got worse on his watch. frankly, it is going to be a problem. , he isbiden does win going to have a problem on his hands going forward, because the

countries very divided. that is the challenge. it is a challenge for what the country is trying to do in foreign policy. frankly, i think the biggest challenge for the next president is to figure out a way of reconnecting what the country tries to do international with its domestic political economy. that is broken right now. tom: peter trubowitz, thank you so much. really wonderful to speak to him. goinge where we are to be on monday with the shift in the conversation. numbing up, an update on the pandemic. in franceand deaths and the united kingdom are absolutely stunning vectors. they are worse than the state of new york. we speak with the lieutenant governor, an update on new york, yes during better, but some significant challenges for governor cuomo and lieutenant governor hogle.

we will do that in the 7:00 hour. stay with us here. with mixed futures on a friday. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ everyone.morning,

"bloomberg surveillance." francine lacqua and tom keene in london and new york. lots of distractions right now. on global wall street, and on the discussion forward, in this case on the airlines, is the debt, the deficit, the credit of this beleaguered industry. someone from duke university with a tour of duty at goldman sachs and citigroup, copresident and co-cio. his focus is on high-yield, his focus is on credit. a conversation. when youality is, really peel the onion back, not only at every industry, but every company has a little different impasse. the airline space, certainly those airlines that are either domestic or catered to more of a budget traveler, those will probably have a bit more recovery than the high-end business recovery. we found certain situations,

whether it was providing new de bt capital, or we have been involved in some of the restructurings where we suspect what is going on with aviation, the value of planes, the value of leases, that there may be an interesting opportunity to be a lender through a restructuring process. we have found a variety that we thought made sense. i do think if you take a step back that a couple of big industries, commercial real estate, and aviation, i do believe that there will be a multi-year opportunity, no pun that,ed, how you navigate because you may start out as a senior lender, may find yourself providing capital in cmbs tranches. industriesse are

that attracted a tremendous amount of capital in the last decade. whenever a tremendous amount of capital is provided, there is usually a bit of an unwind. on top of the unwind, with what's going on with consumer behavior, back to work, however it may be, there is just going to be a lot of microchips or orrowaves -- macro shifts crisscross.that those industries i spend a lot of time at bringing folks together from a variety of perspectives to appraise those opportunities. that you saw a v-shaped rebound in the industry, it's that you saw the opportunity to retain value, even as things get a lot worse? >> yes. our motto has been from the beginning, we will find the right place and capital structure to invest. sometimes, it is equity. sometimes, it is a senior loan. sometimes, it is providing the debtor-in-possession financing.

there is a variety of ways. there is no one playbook for any industry or any type of company. zelter on thel airline business. a really smart conversation this morning. let me do the data check right now. nasdaq giving us the early weak lift off of a flat s&p. the euro, 1.1710. coming up, one of the joys of each and every month, gideon rose. he's trying to sell a magazine, "foreign affairs." stay with us. this is bloomberg. so you're a small business,

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that is the ratio of cases and indicates a battle in great britain and the worldwide over what to lockdown and when. select scientists call for a national shutdown in great britain. markets very quiet this morning. the euro, any weakness. bidens your debate score, says the words of a president matter. trump says a president cannot just be locked in a room someplace and not do anything. will there be a debate october 22? good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." in london, francine lacqua. we were remarkably brexit-free last hour. give me a brexit update. how big a deal is this friday for the dueling brexit of the last 10 or 20 years? francine: you know who is really giving a brexit-update right now? i am hearing from