>> we are now fully in this reflationary reopening stage of the economy. >> people are now finding ways of carrying along their business. >> have the economy will come back. the other half will not have come back and cannot come back. >> the market gets appointed with the fact that the fed has not articulated a more concrete policy path. >> we are realizing the world is not a perfect place, and we are in the long haul. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz,

and tom keene. we welcome all of you across the xm,on, particularly sirius jenna 119. 119.morning -- channel good morning on bloomberg television. $40.59. oil, one of our themes today has been the hateful language we have seen from some of our talent, and i want to go to alex morales writing on your united kingdom. the prime minister facing "a northern revolt." that is hate filled. there's no other way to put it. what is a revolt up north? jonathan: i think it is an accurate description. manchester is being pushed into tier three, the heaviest set of restrictions. the labour mayor is pushing back. -- back against

boris johnson. he is being asked for more money. that is the sense of things, that we are not in it together. there is much more division within countries, and not just the u.k. you have seen this playing out in spain, and you will see more of it through europe through the winter. tom: the division in america is seen by the debates last night, debates plural. it really comes down to a popular vote description, where clearly biden is out front, and the electoral calculus only 18 days away. lisa: you were throwing shade at me when you say the hate filled language because i have been .sking tom: vicious questioning this morning. lisa: we have a crisis here. we have a health crisis. we have an economic crisis. people within the same party are not getting on the same page to figure out how to move forward. there is a question of how much people can join forces and come to compromise at a time of such a difficult woman for so many people -- difficult moment for

70 people. that is my question. tom: it goes to a debate on october 2 a second as well. the market theme we have seen throughout the week has been disinflation. not a lethargy, but just real worrying europe about driving it forward. is this a europe in any way, coalesced?any way jonathan: europe has real trouble because they are adding restrictions to an economy that had already lost momentum. i think that is the difference between europe and the united states, where the recovery has held up more, and china, where the recovery still has momentum. the pmi's in europe on the services sector was already some 50. that is contraction territory. there's pressure on the ecb once again. it was good that they had that agreement in brussels several months ago. it hasn't been ratified.

parliaments haven't all approved it yet. it hasn't been deployed. that was the difference between upgrading the recovery and just upgrading the politics. the politics might be better. fine. but the money hasn't hit the ground. restrictions are already coming back. that makes europe a really difficult trade at the moment. tom: two ideas on this theme. one is dead on, and one is tangential. the swiss 20 year is really substantially negative. you see it in your swissie through the week -- in euro swissie throughout the week. renminbi really reverses this morning. jonathan: the currency strengthen china has got to be the story. the recovery is better. the second is this is part of the biden trade. let's be clear about that. two reasons for it. a lot of people think that biden, if he does become president, will be a softer touch on china. two, the more predictable

approach from the president and the white house if it is a donald trump. that gives people more confidence. tom: some of the market dynamics here on radio and tv to get you and the election as well. patrick armstrong joins us of plurimi wealth. distill what we have all been talking about, about class half-full or glass half-empty. which is it? patrick: while the stimulus is there close to glass half-full for markets is good. regardless of what is happening in the world, a biden presidency and a blue sweep was something people feared a few months ago. i think markets have come to term with it come of that as long as central bank policy stays the same, you're going to get some fiscal stimulus from biden. the market is not worried about that anymore. anytime you are half-full, that is probably positive news. jonathan: is there a good reason

to maintain faith in the economic recovery? patrick: i have a very high conviction that there is to be a continued recovery. i don't have as high a conviction that the economy gets to something that is good and strong, or anything even approaching an economy approaching its capacity. so incrementally, quarter on quarter, for many quarters ahead of us, we are going to keep pinching better, and there are going to be some set. but until we get to a point where there is no output, i think we are still 18 months away from that. so i think growth continues. the trajectory will slow, but it will still be growth. lisa: to the glass half-full -- does the glass half-full interpretation go to this asymmetry in sentiment, the idea that the market is looking at good news as positive and ignoring negative news? how concerned are you about the crowded mess of this market in a more optimistic fed? patrick: it is a crowded market,

but no one seems to be massively overexposed. retail investors may be the one segment where there is really animal spirits, but i think high institutions, they got riskiest poser -- risky exposure. are veryeople still aware of the issues out there. they know they are taking some calculated risks. the momentum of the liquidity is what is driving everything to record high valuations, and future returns from these levels probably aren't going to be great by historic standards, but probably very good versus a zero cash rate. lisa: you go all into the riskiest equities, moving from tech into lodging and other real estate and banks? patrick: i am on the other that. if you are not going to be in an economy approaching its

capacity, i don't think the industrial companies ever have any pricing power. they got a lot of debt, and basically they will be selling everything they do at cost at best. there is no margin power there. i prefer the companies that are growing, that have quality, and low interest rates are zero. i don't the tickets to the point where the equities in those sectors really have pricing power. the banks are going to suffer from negative interest rate margins for many quarters to come. i actually still prefer quality and growth where i am taking risk. jonathan: you are not alone. you think there is a scarcity of safe assets right now? patrick: there's safe assets, but you get punished for owning them. that's the whole idea of quantitative easing and negative interest rates, that "central's want you to deploy your capital, and ideally in ways that is useful for the economy.

a lot of it is turning into share buybacks, things like that, but safe assets are there. if you want to own them, you've got to pay to own rather than get paid to own them. tom: what is the actuarial assumption right now? are we back to a single-digit world, or can we still be enthused about double-digit potential? patrick: i've been wrong in the past. valuation is extreme. monetary policy is equally extreme. dividend yield plus share buybacks, you are at about 5% right now for the s&p 500. that is a reasonable total return when you cut interest rates at zero. that is your 5% risk premium, and long with long-term averages -- in line with long-term averages for equities. jonathan: patrick, great to catch up, as always. market, we are

negative of the way up to 30 years. -- 30ld yogurt right now year yield right now, that plays into the question you asked. tom: i can't say how important this is. just really extraordinary, folks. i am not going to be an expert at deutsche landau bank has been absolutely apoplectic about this. i want to get your take. i was thunderstruck by project big picture. the equivalent in america is if the red sox, the yankees, the dodgers, and the houston astros decided to take over major league baseball. can liverpool and the tots actually do this lisa: before you do this -- do this? before you do this, on

radio, jon's face is absolutely prices. tom: i have no idea what the family is doing and that. can these teams take over soccer? jonathan: they have already. these teams are always trying to get more power. that has been the story for a long time. do you know what these teams would really love? they would like a franchise like the nfl. that is what they would really like. they would all like to band together with clips across groep. they had been threatening -- across europe. they've been threatening to do it to the best part of 20 years. that's the problem we've got in the u.k.. legs --s in the lower the lower leagues need some help right now. they need some assistance. i think to get that aid come of the bigger clubs need to send them some money or give them the help. tots have to send arsenal money? is that how that works? jonathan: yes, that's how this works.

lisa: thank you. look at those markets. jonathan: what about them? lisa: they are up. jonathan: i'm dying. [laughter] tom keene and lisa abramowicz. jonathan ferro. washington looks beautiful. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. boris johnson is warning the u.k. to get ready for a no deal brexit. the british prime minister says he is walking away from the trade talks with the european union. pm johnson: as far as i can see, they have abandoned the idea of a free-trade deal. they don't seem to be any progress coming from brussels. what we are saying to them is only come here, come to us. if there is some fun mental change of approach. otherwise we are more than happy to talk about -- come to us if

there is some fundamental change of approach. otherwise we are more than happy to talk about strategies for what i am talking about. ritika: president trump and joe biden were on tv last night at the same time, but on different channels. they held competing televised town halls instead of debating as the schedule originally called for. the president said he knew that the coronavirus was a huge danger, but want to scare in one. is the biden said it response ability of the president to lead, and president trump didn't do that. more than two weeks to go before election day, and millions of americans are breaking voter turnout records already. according to the university of florida elections project, more than 70 million people have voted already, either in person or by mail. ohio and georgia have set .ecords global news 24 hours a day, on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ pres. trump: i want a stimulus. the problem is she doesn't want to do it because she thinks it's bad for her election. mr. biden: the reason why i am

so optimistic about economic recovery is we have these four crises happening all at once, and one helps the other. for example, we are going to invest a great deal of that money into infrastructure and green infrastructure. jonathan: the race for the white house, the election 18 days away. from london and new york this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we are 12 minutes away from retail sales in america. here's the price action going into that data point. equity futures doing ok. it week of mild gains coming into friday. up around 0.2% this morning. euro stronger against the dollar and the pound. in the bond market, a little bit of a snoozer. 0.24 --es unchanged, 0.724%. tom: right now, it is the

advantage if you are successful. 100 years ago, there was unilever and all the rest. jeffrey howard at university college london is writing new books thinking about our dangerous dialogue, our dangerous discourse in politics. we are thrilled that professor howard could join us this morning. you've got a new book coming out about dangerous discussion. is that what we observed last night? jeffrey: i think we observed quite a bit about last night. it was a striking moment when savannah guthrie was pressing the president about whether he would disown this extremely fringe conspiracy theory known alleges that top democrats are in cahoots with pedophiles and sex traffickers, and that donald trump really a secret agent aiming to save the world from these and various villains. of course, trump wouldn't disown it. he claimed he didn't know

anything about it before jumping in and saying they are against pedophiles, and that is a good thing. clearly he is lying. clearly he knows quite a bit about it. tom: lisa abramowicz and jon ferro get the love notes. i've gotten hate mail, and at already gotten hate mail this morning from trump supporters who separate his discourse from policy and from what they believe are the attributes they can vote for. is that appropriate? is that going to be something new to american politics? jeffrey: if we are going to the polls, it is always a lesser evil justification. we never have candidates that align perfectly with our deepest values. sometimes it would be appropriate to support someone even though you disagree with their language or their rhetoric, if you thought they were good in terms of the content they deliver for the country. the problem with the president is that his language actually does have consequences. it has implications for the kind of country we are living in, for the coarseness of public

dialogue, and as we get closer to the election, i think it is very reasonable to be wary in which the ways is unhinged rhetoric leads to violence. in the town hall last night, he again mentioned governor gretchen whitmer by name despite the plot by militia terrorists to kidnap her recently. i think we need to be extremely alarmed about that. people who say don't worry about the language need to realize that sometimes it does make a difference. jonathan: let's talk about the polls right now. where the president is really struggling, several demographics, including an older demographic, particularly in florida, which is a huge change from four years ago, and suburban women as well. how can you make inroads with a little more than two weeks to go? jeffrey: there's not a lot of time, and trump is spending time in places that he traditionally, or republican traded its --

republican candidates traditionally, would have to spend time in millett georgia. -- time income alike georgia. it is easy to say that biden has guided in the bag, but in the swing states, it is still pretty close, and anything could happen. that is why i think biden is being very shrewd to spend time in places like pennsylvania, spending time with the kind of suburban voters that trump has done a lot to turnoff in the last few years. certainly they showed up in droves at the polls during the midterms to repudiate trump. it seems overwhelmingly likely that that will happen again. trump directly appealed to suburban women, saying it is really important that they like him, but didn't give any compelling argument about why should support the ministration. lisa: although in fairness, he was doing that a bit in a self-deprecating way. the idea that perhaps the polls

are not vastly wrong and joe biden does win the election, what happens after that, in the months before january 20, when there is a transition of power? how messy could things get? jeffrey: there are a number of different scenarios that could play out. . one kind of scenario is the president continuing to cast doubt on the validity of the election, but it's actually not making a difference to what ultimately transpires in january. it is entirely conceivable that trump will continue to degrade the legitimacy of the election without a gain tension a box -- without any intention of actually trying to stay in office. it could be a way of keeping his supporters with him as he tries to set up some sort of trump tv station so he retains a sizable part of the electorate. but i think it seems at least conceivable that he could inspire his supporters to go into the streets, to engage in violence.

we could imagine trump supporters making a big scene about the election and the left winghere counterprotesters could show up to agitate against those supporters. that really would be a powder keg that could be extremely dangerous. tom: professor, this is important. that is really inflammatory. are you predicting that we could see that kind of response from people or in this nation, do we move on in a more peaceable way? the task is to play out all of the scenarios. clearly, the hopeful scenario is one in which everyone accepts the legitimacy of the election, regardless of who wins. if the president is reelected, we want people on the political reelection,pt his and if he loses, we want his people to accept the incoming biden ministration -- biden

administration. but given the repeated attempts to cast doubt on the election, and the way that he is leaning into divisive, inflammatory rhetoric, it would be fullest to not take seriously the possibility that violence could happen, to make a concerted effort to reach out to the people in our lives and remind people of the importance of respecting the outcomes of the election and rebutting the kind of disinformation the president has been sowing about the unreliability of mail-in ballots, which doesn't have any serious basis in evidence. jonathan: jeffrey howard there, associate professor of political theory at university college london. , somein that conversation partisan analysis coming around the election. tom: we get it, but i think we've got to be a little more balanced about it, particularly in the united states. i had a wonderful discussion once with christine lagarde about this, about the tradition

of protests nation to nation. this would be unusual for america, to say the least. jonathan: there is a debate on october 22 in nashville, tennessee. we will see. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from london and new york for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and radio. keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures near session highs. advancing about .33%. u.s. retail sales about to drop in the united states of america. on that data, here is michael mckee. michael: just getting the numbers, and it looks like the retail sales numbers for september come in better than forecast, and better than the prior month. back helped out. 1.9% for the overall retail sales numbers. the prior month was up only .6%. utos, up 1.5%, better than the .7% number in august. the control group, which is what

economists look at because it tells you what is going into gdp , up 1.4%. significantly that are than the negative .1% number in august. dialing down, looking to see what we got in terms of the biggest changes. obviously, motor vehicles are the biggest change that we got during the month, up 3.6%. big sales of motor vehicles. basedne stations up 1.5% on prices because these are dollar numbers. sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and bookstores up 5.7%. general merchandise up 1.8%. it looks like clothing and accessory stores up 11%. all of those bowties that tom bought for back-to-school are paying off. tom: this is really important.

what we do is smooth it out with the moving average. mr. mckee looks at the control group, which is taking off the slide and on radio this will work. i am moving my hand ever so slightly. michael, you know the moving average of these important consumer statistics ebbs ever up. these good statistics have come ever up over the last four and five and six months. is that stimulus based and can you extrapolate that out? michael: what appears to have happened is people put a lot of the money they got from the government, the $1200 checks and in some cases families got more than that is you got money for having children, they put it in the bank, and they pay down debt, so they did have spending power. the new york fed did a survey that showed 36% of the money people got went into savings, and the savings rate jumped over the past couple of months. they did have money to spend as

back-to-school came along, and as the economies opened up in a number of places, food services 2.1%rinking places were up in august, down 14.4% in september. september 2019. we did see changes on the month. at this point, it looks like we are seeing better news in terms of spending and getting through this period. the question is does that continue since we are farther away from the extra stimulus payments? tom: the 10 year yield elevates, .73%. a nice move off the quiet we have seen earlier this morning. futures up 12, dow futures up 111. the levels are important. dow 28,496. the vix comes in comment to me

that is significant. jonathan: the word here is momentum. lisa mentioned it the other week. it looks like this economy still has momentum in september. that flies in the face of a lot of economists who expected the economy to start a flat map as we got later in the summer. it is not happened. out as weo flatten got later in the summer. tom: right now we have an understanding that each house has its own character. the legacy of morgan stanley is stephen roach clearly modernizing modern economics through the digital. the idea of actually publishing on retail sales the moment it was done, it was a miracle 15 and 20 years ago. carrying that legacy forward is --t nyack -- sheet nyack cheta ahya. thank you for joining us this morning. up.see retail sales

are we misjudging q4 and q1 worldwide where they could actually outperform the caution? chetan: that is what we have been highlighting. we've been making those calls that we will see the recovery and the data continues to confirm we are on that path and there is no stalling, especially for u.s. and china, which are the two big parts of the world. the data continues to surprise on the upside. expecting something similar from china when we get the gdp data monday. lisa: how much does the increase in virus cases challenge or assumption of a v-shaped recovery? chetan: i've mentioned on their show before that what we have been highlighting is the economy is changing. as we keep seeing new cases rising again, we have to tamper down the expectation of the impact on the economy. maybe not the view that growth will moderate in the next three

months, but it will still continue to make progress toward the v-shaped recovery call we had made, which is that we will see the u.s. were economy will reach pre-covid levels by q2 2021. look at today's retail sales data. if you try to do backwards math on the consumption spending number, the consumption spending could be as much as 98% of pre-covid levels by the end of september. that tells you how much progress we've made so far. the v-shaped recovery looks secure. predicatedut this is on the idea that the balance sheet has been bolstered by the stimulus we already got from washington, d.c. , how do not get that re-up anymore months can consumers sustained recovery? chetan: that is a very good question. what we have been highlighting is the underlying strength of

the consumer balance sheet as well as income spending has been quite good. august isncome as of already about -- above pre-covid levels by 2%. the excess savings start in the last five months because of the is $1.1 trillion. the consumers have enough room to continue their spending into the retail months. jonathan: you've been very bold and quite bullish on the economy and you have been an outlier at morgan stanley. coming out of that huge contraction earlier this year. every economic house looks at their base case at the knowledges a key vulnerability in their forecast. what is it for you right now? abilitythe people are is the new cases. if they force aggressive

shutdowns, that will be the risk to our forecast. i think the stimulus is less of a risk because of the math i mentioned to you on the household strength. .t is this rise in new cases if they force aggressive shutdowns, that would be the near-term risk. again, that short-term risk, because as we head into spring we should get an environment where the virus itself begins to dissipate. jonathan: what you think about the question of what is playing out in europe is in america's future? chetan: in terms of the virus cases? jonathan: yes. chetan: i think europe's situation is similar to what you saw in the u.s. in june and july. you are seeing new cases rising, hospitalizations are not rising, and what you are seeing policymakers is taking more pragmatic approach on shutting down the economy across the board. if you look the actual facts of

how much restrictions they have imposed, they have not shut down restaurant, they have just decided to shut down restaurant late in the evening. that tells you the point i was making to you early, that the relationship between virus and the economy is changing. jonathan: you think the recovery can continue even as cases build? this would imply consumers do not disengage, companies do not lose confidence. chetan: in the u.s. we saw that do not happen in june and july. we are more confident of the u.s.. in europe, you could see confidence. as of now, what we have in the -- the most important number i look at is the restaurant activity. the restaurant activity in europe for the countries we have , germany at the u.k. has picked up a lot. they are still back to 100% levels. they are not showing a huge

decline in retail activity. jonathan: great to catch up as always. what a call so far. it is not over yet but it is looking good. ahya of morgan stanley. when it comes to a recovery, i am not sure it will look like a v, but let's not get into that. where they have been out front is to be far more constructive. how longunceback, and we would have the momentum. tom: let's go to the nuance, i put out on twitter his comment about getting back to pre-covid levels q2 of 2021. that is not that far away. jonathan: that is in the economy. retail sales already there. really impressive to see where retail sales are. lisa: although let's be clear and put this in perspective. this is a good number, much stronger than expected.

yesterday jobless claims much worse than expected. it has been spotty. you want me to use the word of the friday? how much is there a lack of fact between the layoffs we are seeing now in the data that is coming out as lagging indicators. tom: when we were together we were so optimistic. lisa: you cannot blame me. paragon of the optimism. jonathan: stop the happy talk, stop the optimism. you two are so happy. tom: we have people driving off i-80. of optimismmmer from morgan stanley. go with it for 10 minutes. lisa: it is important, and they have been right, and it is very much what we are seeing in the sales. in the jobless numbers, you cannot let this go. the fact people are getting laid

off and it is permanent. tom: i would say this two america's, one benefiting from the digital dominance and the other passing right by and that is the election tension. jonathan: former vice president joe biden would agree with you on that. die 1-800 rabin e. you might get lisa answering the phone. you two would be good friends. lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. tom: are we doing this tomorrow? jonathan: come tomorrow. i will be around. i promise. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. boris johnson is now planning for no deal brexit. johnson claims the european union are not offering good enough terms on a free-trade deal. he says he is still willing to hear from the eu if leaders come back with a fundamental change of approach. president trump and joe biden or

on tv last night at the same time but on different channels. instead of apeting debate the schedule had originally called for. on nbc the president said he knew the coronavirus was a huge danger. president trump: i knew it was a threat come at the same time a do not want to panic the country, i do not want to say everybody is going to die. ritika: in a town hall moderated by george stephanopoulos, joe biden was asked if he would take a coronavirus vaccine once it had been approved. vice president biden: if the body of scientists say this is what is ready to be done and it has been tested and gone through three phases, i would take it and i would encourage people to be -- to take it. ritika: the two candidates will face off next week in the final presidential debate. aviation regulator in europe says the boeing 737 max is safe to fly. test flights were how in september.

the 737 max has been grounded because of two fatal accidents. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪

president trump: as far as the mask is concerned, i am good with masks. some people wear masks. the other day they came out with a statement that 85% of people

wear masks that catch it. >> it did not say that. president trump: that is what i heard and that is what i saw. vice president biden? it is estimated by -- vice president biden: it is estimated by every major study that if we wore masks we could save 100,000 lives and avoid lockdowns. you do not have to lock down if you are wearing a mask. jonathan: former vice president joe biden together with the president of the united states in two town halls overnight. from london and new york, alongside tom keene it lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. ,he treasury curve steeper retail sales delivering an upside surprise. on the path forward in washington, looking forward to our conversation later this morning with henrietta treyz. that coming up shortly on bloomberg tv. tom: she was lights out the last time we talked to her. that will be interesting to see

the policy prescription and energy. look for that on one of mr. pharaoh's properties. futures advanced -- on one of mr. ferro's properties. what we will do on a friday, dr. will stoping -- we the show and talk about the unspeakable that is out there. fred dean of the san francisco 49ers died last night of 68 years old. he died of a virus. chris christie, former governor younger,rsey, 10 years just got out of seven days of intensive care. we need to talk to somebody, not a pungent, but a pro. mercedes carnethon is with northwestern, where she is prodigious in epidemiology.

how link is this virus to wait? -- to wieight. one of the first signs we saw was individuals who were overweight or obese had worse outcomes. one of the reasons is it is more challenging to treat them. not only are they having more severe inflammatory response when they contract the virus, which is a significant problem that often leads to hospitalization, but once we get them in the hospital it is harder to intubate them and harder to treat individuals who are overweight or obese. we are not all going to go out and lose 30 pounds so we do better when we get the virus. does the vaccine benefit people overweight equally as those that are relatively less obese, that have a body mass index under a certain level?

is the vaccine an equal opportunity good thing? mercedes: we certainly hope so. that is why we do clinical trials and need people who reflect the diversity of the united states in those trials. two thirds of adults are overweight or obese. obese.30% are even higher rates in some communities. it is important we get all of these types of people in our clinical trials so we can ensure the virus works under a number of different scenarios, as far as health history, and a number of scenarios as far as individual behavior and background. lisa: let's talk about the here and now since we will probably not get a vaccine for the next three or four months ahead. how bad could it get in the u.s., looking at what is going on in your? -- in europe. mercedes: looking at europe is the lens we need to take.

all along we have been four to six weeks behind europe. that cases are searching in europe suggests to me that as the winter months come upon us and we have more time indoors, particular with the holidays where we want to be together, i see that this trend we have right now of high case rates, case rates per day as high as they were in july, and starting to approach what we saw at the beginning of the pandemic, i do not see a rosy future in the next three months. is this people getting tired of having to distance and wear masks and take necessary precautions, and how much is it the change in weather, that colder weather makes it easier for the virus to spread? mercedes: i think a large part of what we are seeing is the decrease in vigilance. it is hard. it is hard. if you do not have the visual

daily reminder of a loved one who died, of a friend who suffered from it and was hospitalized and maybe one of the long haulers who are still suffering, it is easy to say can't i take a chance and have some fun tonight? i have these slip-ups and i know the data very well. universally this is where we have to date in and say maybe not this holiday season, but we all have to be able to be together next holiday season. tom: out of this pandemic, out of this natural disaster, can we see a shift in diet priorities in the nation, can we see a shift in nutrition where we link a lesser weight to a healthier america? theedes: obesity has been central part of my research program in preventive medicine, and there are many challenges to preventing obesity. there is no magic pill to treat obesity. it require sustained commitment

to behavior change and the resources to be able to make that. it has been hard for people in quarantine to exercise at the same level they were able to. for those of us in northern climates, it will be hard to be outside. i think we need to maintain a weight, buttrolling i did not think it will rise to level of priority of what we need as far as preventing coronavirus bread. tom: thank you so much. from northwestern and preventive medicine. mercedes carnethon. i think it is extraordinary to see where we are in this pandemic. the deterioration in europe, i will be honest. i am supposed to be in tune with this, it captured me by surprise. lisa: especially in italy. was it discussion about herd immunity? that was dashed. -- facui tourat

herd immunity to strips. lisa: one thing i find interesting, if you look at the data, numbers are going up faster in rural and suburban areas then urban areas, which still have the memory of what happened earlier in the year. to her point is a lack of diligence. we are all getting tired. we all want to hear about how have to lose weight, stay inside? tom: come on, you are cut and chiseled. lisa: [laughter] i am going with the data. tom: great. oh good, and a glass of water. lisa: water, that's right. this is what we are all facing. how do you stay inside and keep your mental health. tom: hit the weights, that is what i will do. lisa, thank you for putting me in my place. we will give you a data check.

futures up 14. they advance of goods and retail sales statistics. the governor of new jersey and the 2:00 hour. stay with us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. equity futures up .4% after nice upside surprise on u.s. retail sales. we begin with the big issue. two presidential candidates, two competing town halls. donald trump talking up a v-shaped recovery. president trump: the greatest economy we ever had, we had to close it down, we saved 2 million lives. it is coming back. jonathan: joe biden talking up a case shaped his appointment. he talks about a v-shaped recovery. ed recovery.ap if you're on the top you will do well, if you're on the bottom, your income is coming down. jonathan: 18 days until election day. the merry-go-round still spinning on capitol hill. secretary mnuchin, speaker