china's economic recovery from the depths of the covid crisis continues. missing expectations but expansions can be seen in the second quarter. addlatest government lockdown measures for its struggling economy. in shifting the deadline, nancy pelosi set a tuesday time limit, if the president wants a deal before the election. good morning, everyone, and

welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." happy monday. i am francine lacqua here in london. toin, a very busy week, on the u.s. election and about 16 days. looking at futures, the hope is that we will get stimulus, and i am looking at treasuries. the pound already up after reports that officials were prepared to water down controversial brexit legislation and a move that could revive failing talks with the european union. also, the yuan seann gains. now let's get to the bloomberg first word news in london with leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: good morning, francine. nancy pelosi says a pre-election is possible, but she has set a tuesday deadline for making more headway with the white house. president trump is confident he can persuade the republicans to back a good deal, renewing his offer to go beyond the dollar amount that is now on the table.

now china has passed a new law to restrict sensitive exports to protect national security. it provides a framework for beijing to fight back against the u.s. and tensions with high-tech industries. thanontrol is much slimmer the one used by washington, but it can be expanded. the u.s. has recently taken huawei,gainst tencent, and others. its big a share of the vote in more than 17 years, the first majority in parliament since new zealand introduced proportional representation back in 1996. still, a coalition government may include her allies, the green party. a cease-fire between

azerbaijan and armenia has began to yesterday, they traded accusations over who had fired the agreement that comes amidst the worst fighting and decade standingong fight over an area of land. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. now, global coronavirus cases are approaching the 40 million mark, and cases in india and the u.s. were averaging more than 50,000 a day. over in the u.s., house speaker nancy pelosi has had a tuesday deadline for mold progress on a white stimulus deal -- more progress on a white house stimulus deal. president trump says he is offering a one point $8 trillion amount that republicans have put forward. fromhile, china's recovery the pandemic come a headline gdp number came in short of

expectations at 4.9%, but growth did expand while retail production beat forecasts. joining us as geraldine sundstrom, portfolio manager at pimco. geraldine, there is of course these extra restrictions stopping short of a lockdown. what is the market pricing in there. ? geraldine: i think they are expanding, they want a smooth transition or trump to remain in the election. they think that the stimulus might come before the election or if it would come after. it is not a question of if but really when i think as long as by pandemic is being managed a government, meaning reduced productivity is still ongoing. i think people are still focused

think markets are remaining cautious but not entirely depressed by what is happening right here and right now. francine: is the market pricing in a joe biden win? geraldine: i think increasingly we can see may be the subcomponent in the market that a blue wave might be getting priced into the market, but i think increasingly, the market has moved away from the historic trump vs from the historic trump. biotin and what it could mean in the medium-term. for now, what it will mean, first and foremost, we will get a sizable stimulus package. the customer in the u.s. is in a good position. of wagers, lot pent-up demand, so i think the

market is going to first focus on this, you know, the recovery, and the shape of the recovery might be a little bit different for a biden or a trump but arguably remains the recovery. we will see you down the line much later now. francine: i just want to bring the attention of our viewers and listeners to that latest headline coming on the bloomberg they haveaying that cited a technical issue, so all of the trading has been halted. if you are looking at live pricing, just be careful, very likely that if it is through euro makes, because of this tangle issue, the trading has -- onext, because of this technical issue, the trading has been halted. thisll let you know when has been fixed. bigldine, do you have a

surprise with china, a bit less good than expected, but still he growth of 4.9%. what does it mean for how much you want from china? geraldine: i think china is an driverbly important of growth globally and is likely to increase going forward. of course, they are entangled with this big rival with the u.s., but, if anything, it has increased the result of the government to push forward on all sorts of domestic developments, like pushing forward with 5g network iotlopment, pushing with and all these things, so it is likely that china's growth is going to remain supported going into 2021 could i think they're five-year plan, where we are likely to see some more details in the weeks to come, is going to be centered. and i think china is going to use this climate target on a secular horizon to really bring domestic growth and power ahead.

and a lot of the things that are necessary for this developmental, so i think china has pivoted a little bit more inward, and using all of these reforms and target they had to really push forward. and the very good news we got as well, it is not in the september , whatwas the consumer took place in october, and there again. it goes to show that if you manage to keep the pandemic under, you know, a net, that economic activity can rebound forcefully. francine: geraldine, thank you so much. geraldine sundstrom from pimco stays with us. breaking news, france, portugal, and other countries, we understand this is a technical fault, so we will bring you any breaking news when we know this technical fault is fixed, and of

course when it will be reopened. for the moment, do not look at any of the trading coming from euronext, because portugal, the netherlands, france are halted today. coming up, we will have more with geraldine sundstrom. we will talk about president christine lagarde in an interview. d rallies as investors take note of more aggressive ecb policies. that is next, and this is bloomberg. ♪ d this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. over the last 15 minutes or so, we were told that euronext was

having technical difficulties, meaning some of these stocks were halted. this is true, for example, for all of the euronext stocks. france, portugal, others do not at the moment have live trading. l'oreal and others are amongst those stocks that are currently halted. at the moment, we do not have an update, but as soon as we do, we will let you know. now, let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash, here's leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine. phillips said the lingering impact of the coronavirus will boost demand for its medical gear in the coming years. they have seen high demand for its ventilators. they have seen a 32% jump in earnings in the quarter. the company's ceo says he expects a modest sales gain in 2020. has covid rears its head in

the fourth quarter, it is a bit uncertain, but we are pretty confident we can deliver positive growth for the year, of continued deliveries equipment and telehealth services. leigh-ann: planning to sell assets and shakeup to provide sales at the yogurt maker. they are putting 500 million euros for sale, expecting more focus on geography than on product. and a new deal for one of the world's largest alternative asset managers, brookfield is buying in almost 20% stake in american equity, a 15% premium after friday's close. american equity concern to be move with a proposed takeover from esteemed and massachusetts

mutual live. and that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: thank you so much. eu leaders will discuss whether the billion-dollar recovery fund will be continued. that is after christine lagarde says she hopes there will be a debate. still with us in geraldine sundstrom from pimco. geraldine, first of all, the message from the ecb in general, what does it actually mean for the german bund? what does it mean for the ecb? think thatwell, i the ecb has handed over the job to the fiscal package and government therefore, so it is becoming more into the sphere of fiscal governments and politics rather than monetary policy. of course, the ecb would be very important in smoothing this, because governments and eu

entities would have to ensure a lot of that, a financial recovery package. i think, in a way, the pandemic gave the perfect excuse, and i think that should be welcome, to create this european recovery. i think it is going to be around climate and the climate targets that have been issued by the commission and that are also being voted by the mp's in strasbourg . there will be programs that will be european that will be funded, and these will be with us for years and years to come. most of these targets have been set for 2050. a lot needs to be done in terms think anyway, i christine lagarde is hinting toward this, to hit those collected targets, this type of package will have to be in place for, i would say, decades to come.

and that probably brings the perfect excuse for it. francine: geraldine, what does it mean for where you see value? buying right now, in this kind of environment? geraldine: i think this is bringing schematics into portfolio, what i call the sticky euro. we are early in a cycle of recovery with a lot of support from government, and they have written it on the word for us, where a lot of this money is going to be channeled. it is going to be channeled toward renewable energy, socation, toward renovation, these are sectors that are likely to be very well supported for years to come, and in terms exposure and schematic exposure, these are areas where we are focusing more, so it is a little bit different from the traditional, cyclical stock that we would be buying at this juncture in this cycle. it is a little bit of a nuance

i thinki call 6.0, and there's a lot of growth that is going to come and a lot of exciting investments. francine: geraldine, if you look at the markets right now, do you have to make decisions country by country because of the lockdown, or do you go for the longer-term, that you were just talking about? geraldine: i think there is a longer-term thematic, even though they are going to player for many years. markets are already starting to drive us, and it is on the move. it is not so much regional, i would say. yes, gdp growth might be better in europe thanks to this recovery package. you will see which of the companies will be the enabler of these green and digital recovery, which companies are going to accrue the benefits to end the pnl? when we stand with those companies, we find in europe, i have to say that the vast

majority of companies are in asia, in china, in taiwan, in south korea. , but also in japan. . so an approach, from a regional standpoint, does not really look at where the money is going to be spent but who is going to be the enabler of this recovery and who is going to accrue the benefit. francine: geraldine, thank you so much, geraldine sundstrom, portfolio manager at pimco. we are finding more about the technical issues that euronext is having. have learned so far is that stocks have still not open, or at least they were halted in terms of trading. euronext says all trading has been halted because of the technical issue, that means france, portugal, netherlands, thatng has been halted, so includes big stocks like l'oreal and lvmh. i am sure we will bring any breaking news that we have on the fact that euronext says trading has been halted on all products because of a technical issue. coming up, the u.k. is said to

be preparing to water down as lawbreaking brexit legislation. can that boost investor confidence that a trade deal could happen? we discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. now, the u.k. is prepared to water down its brexit legislation. they could dilute the

controversial bill to revive failing talks with the eu. earlier in the week, johnson the u.k. was prepared to leave the eu without a single deal. let's get the latest with our exit editor edward evans. ed, great to get you want to try to understand exactly what is going on. they backlks on, are off, what is going on? edward: they could certainly be back on. now we are in a holding pattern. boris johnson said he should prepare for no deal brexit at pigot of the year, but crucially did leave the door open for further talks for a fundamental change of approach. what does that mean? one, the european union wants to continue the talks. two, that the eu would be prepared to compromise, and again, significantly on friday,

angela merkel set up a summit with eu leaders that you should be ready to compromise, and, three, that both sides be willing to work on a legal text. it is quite possible that they could get back to talks. david frost will be having a conversation today with michel barnier. it may be a few days now before talks actually resume. mean, how much of this is a negotiating tactic? i do not know how difficult it is to make a bet on whether it will be a 50/50 chance we get an agreement, or whether it will be much less or much lower. what needs to happen to get back on track? edward: i think what we need to see if some move from the european union. i think, you know, what was absolutely striking on friday was the pound was basically unchanged by this, which suggests, given the companies that buy no deal,

investors do see this as a negotiating tactic, and they expect talks to come back on. there is a hard deadline to get the transition period done at the end of this year, and you do need a couple of months to actually implement and ratify an agreement, so that really puts the deadline here at the end of october, early november. so this is, you know, it looks like a negotiating strategy, but it is one without a safety net. we are getting awfully close now to hitting the ground, as it were. francine: thank you very much, edward evans, on brexit. we will have to anymore on brexit throughout the day. euronext in the last couple of come i think, about 25 minutes, actually came out saying that there were some technical difficulties, and because of technical difficulties, the stocks have been halted. this is what we know so far on everything going on with euronext. euronext is still just saying that the trading has been halted on all products because of a

technical issue, and it means, for example, that trading, you know, will not open until further notice. again, this is according to a technical issue. euronext cash markets, also the derivative mik markets have been affected, and it is working to resolve the issue and will provide an update as soon as possible regarding the expected reopening planet resumption of trading. of course, as soon as they let us know, we will let you know. the only major economy to grow this year, retail sales and production in china both gained momentum in september. we will focus on the world's second-largest economy, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in

london. let's get to first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. sources tell bloomberg the u.k. government is ready to water down its controversial lawbreaking brexit bill. it wants to reprise talks with e.u. -- revised talks with e.u. as a transition draws to a close. when obstacle is the rebuilding trust. badly damaged by the internal marketer that rewrites part of the brexit deal, already agreeing with the european union. donald trump's advisors, scott atlas, known for his contrarian medical views, work? no."sks twitter told cnn it violated rules on sharing information. sharing false information. though supply decisions are expected until a meeting in december, but russia and saudi

.rabia are already stepping up vladimir putin and bahama been salmon that and mohammed bin salman has been have spoken twice during the week. people gathered in paris yesterday to pay trip to a street teacher killed in the city on friday. crowds met to hold a moment of silence. after patty was attacked of mohammed in a show of freedom. francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is blue bird. francine? francine: let's focus on the only major global economy set to grow this year. missed gdp data

estimates in the third quarter, but retail sales and industrial reduction gained momentum in september. tom mackenzie reports from the .arehouse pointhe number was four 9%, forecast had been for 5.5%, an economist we have spoken to suggest maybe we should look away from the third quarter gdp number, focus instead on the monthly activity data, particularly retail sales. september ofn 3.3%. all above estimates, well above what you saw in august. there is one reason why we are here. are seeing iney terms of weekly orders growth of about 10% compared to 2019. the consumer appears to be stepping up in china after being on the sidelines, and the economists suggest that will lead to more broad-based economic recovery going forward. industrial production also solid

, as is fixed asset investments. in terms of risks, the export economy is doing very well on the back of demand for electronics. in the u.s. also medical supplies, there is a question mark whether that will continue as the virus holds its grip on the world. leverage is of something officials say it points to as a potential concern over the weekend. tom mackenzie, bloomberg. is thee: joining us emerging market strategy director at societe generale. growth numbers coming from china -- will it be much easier for them to change an economy just because it is growing and the rest of the world isn't? >> i think certainly it is a standard bearer for growth.

even though it was -- we're seeing a more balanced growth and higher quality growth byause it is led not just investment -- services are coming back online, and with the underlying improvement in consumer confidence, we are happy to see it in this can normalize over the coming quarters, i think that can lead the way for global growth to rebound as well. recovery for a imports in china and for commodity exports in emerging markets. thatine: is there a danger if the rest of the world slows down, then china will be adversely hit and economists are not realizing it? even if you look at the world, the imf world economic outlook, china seem so much better than others, but because they export so much to the rest of the world, if there lockdown,

restrictions, china will also suffer? phoenix: yeah, i guess for me, the inward channels into china are more important than the outward channels coming out of china. with what it leaves on that fund and with the resilience of the underlying recovery, i think that bodes well for how it manifests in the rest of the world. channels,ose outward i would emphasize them more. francine: what is the biggest challenge for the chinese economy right now, and for chinese politicians? i guess it is trying to regain control over the pandemic, trying to encourage credit growth, trying to encourage more confidence and consumers that we are starting to see happen. i think it is about bringing back the broad-based not just

export lands but wider consumption based models as well. retaincourse trying to the various deleveraging metrics that we have been focused on. it is a two-step approach where it is focused on not just controlling the pandemic but encouraging -- renminbi stay strong in all of this? is it the new found engine to kind of the other markets in asia? phoenix: i think it is, and certainly when we look at the forecast over the next 12 asian, we expect for the currency complex to benefit from the chinese recovery and for regions.eave the other francine: how does the currency but also the economy move

depending on who gets the white house november 3? did an analysis on this a couple of weeks ago, and we found it didn't matter whether it was democrats or republicans coming into the white house. what mattered was whether it be the incumbents or the challenger , and if it is a challenger and particularly the company by a sweep of congress, that tends to be quite negative for emerging-market currency. so we will expect in this case, if biden does when the white house with a sweep, that might result in temporary ian currency weakness. -- em currency weakness. with the policy changes that might be implemented, and concern around those policy changes over a temporary period. .rancine: thank you so much felix kaelin from societe

generale stays with us. we will talk more about the oil-rich -- phoenix kalen from societe generale stays with us. we will talk more about the oil-rich countries. and we will bring you the latest when we have an opening time, when we understand more about the technical issue. derivatives on nero next markets have been halted because of technical issues. coming up, oil steady ahead of meeting to discuss the state of the market. we will discuss that next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg

surveillance." let's get to the bloomberg business with leigh-ann gerrans. jack ma's group has won approval for its listing in hong kong. officials gave the green light for a hearing with the hong our exchange as soon today and already has the nod .hrough the shanghai hearing crown resorts says it is being investigated for a potential andch for money laundering counterterrorism flaws. concerns are focused on how the casino handles individuals deemed to be high-risk and politically exposed. alibaba is investing about $3.6 billion to take control of one of china's largest markets. it is doubling its stake in art retail with a plan to buy out

the rest of the company. fend offis to try to rivals like jd.com in the market growth area. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. opec is facing growing pressure to change course as a surging pandemic threatens once again. is bloomberg's executive editor for energy. thank you for bringing us your insight to "surveillance." what are we looking for? will they have to cut productions to make sure that prices stabilize? >> the question that is coming there is a meeting set for december. and under the current terms of 2 millionthere are oil forof extra january.

whether the are -- whether the market can take the actual oil, there is a suspicion that it can't. the -- that is what they are talking about. whether they will hold -- the we expect that that's what putin was talking about over the weekend. francine: could china alone if they continue growing at 4.9% absorb some of the oil consumption? absolutely, they are absorbing the consumption. andre seeing demand for oil crude import hit record highs in recent months as the economy recovers and chinese drivers get back on the road and get back on the roads perhaps more than they were because they are avoiding still public transit. so that's happening.

watchteresting avenue to is india, where we see real improvement, despite a very bad coronavirus outbreak, a real improvement in demand as people get back to normal despite the virus. in asia, there are bright spots, but there is a lot of concern about demand both in europe and the u.s., so it is nuanced. in different parts of the world. francine: thank you so much, bloomberg's executive editor will kennedy. how much do some of the emerging markets that you follow depend on the price of oil? lot of thertainly a commodity sensitive emerging markets will be very dependent on this. of major ones within the emerging markets, and so it is quite important to the growth outlook and the overall recovery of the economy and the export base for there to be stable and improving oil prices.

overall, do you worry about inflationary pressures coming because of the stimulus onto emerging markets, or emerging markets have a better chance of getting through this quicker? we certainly do worry about the impact of stimulus packages on inflation, with --lation applications so inflation expectations so low and the growth recovery expectations so low, i think it will take a lot for expectations to change and for this to be reflected in a steeper rate curve and a steeper bond curve acrossem, and for trades the various regions. on average we would expect for 10 year government bonds to be about 40 basis points over the next year on the back of those implications from higher inflation to growth expectation. francine: what is your take on

the emerging growth? what is your favorite? point,: i think at this google is oversold and there are geopolitical risks tied in. towould look at things strengthen after the u.s. elections are over, after the uncertainties around what the administration stance will be toward russia. if it is clearer and more understood. it is fundamentally undervalued and oversold at this point. i think pe currencies as well, they tend to benefit from the european recovery and the stimulus packages and the recovery packages. i think that can be one of the sources of outperforming over the years. and of course asian currencies. we do like that the asian currency complex, how that benefits from china. francine: are we going to see

trade actually being redeveloped a little bit? so instead of u.s.-china, will it be china and some of the emerging markets closer to it? yeah, i think that will continue to be a long-term trend, as we have seen this kind onmove away from reliance bilateral relationships and to china broadening its portfolio base. i think that will continue to improve the prospects more to develop emerging markets in china and to south africa, between russia and china. those will continue to strengthen over time. francine: thank you so much, phoenix kalen, emerging market strategist for societe generale. there are just two weeks from the u.s. elections. we will keep you up to date on the latest. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: if you vote for biden, you will surrender your jobs to china, you will

surrender your future to the virus. he's going to lock down. he will listen to the scientists. if i listened totally to the scientists, we would right now have a country that would be in a massive to question -- in a massive depression. mr. biden: the experts have been saying for the last month and a half that nearly a number -- nearly another 200,000 lives might be lost in the coming months between now and the first of the year. if we continue to refuse to follow science. because he refuses to embrace wearing a mask. funmany times does he make of biden wearing a mask. pres. trump: i love the republicans, but we have to learn to stick together. mr. biden: folks, i mean it when i say this. it's time to restore america's soul. it is time to rebuild the

backbone of america, the middle class, and bring everybody along, nobody your race, your age, your religion, your gender, your disability. we can do this. francine: that was president trump and his democratic rival, joe biden, hitting the campaign trail this weekend with different messages on the pandemic. there are 15 days to go until the election and millions of americans have already voted. we saw some extraordinary monetary policy moves during the pandemic. investors motivated to find new opportunities and strategies for me to getting risk. we spoke exclusively with dwight scott, global head of blackstone's investment management unit, jso. the fact thatut rates are so low today that the wind that has been at our back as investors for a long time of falling rates, we don't have the in the credit markets. the investment rate is inside 2%, so you're getting to ration long-termaking

investment decisions, and you really don't today know how long rates are going to stay this low. so i worry that as you see rates start to pick it back up, which i don't think will happen in the near term, but as the rates pick thosep, was fixed -- fixed income exposures you will have to be careful about because you will not have an increased and pricing causing -- caused by an increase in rates. >> how does that change the way you underwrite your expectations here? dwight: it gets us back to this difference between the private world and the public world. on our public strategies, we are moving higher in the value tank. we want better companies, better management, strong sponsors because we believe those businesses will outperform and they will grow into their capital structures and grow into less leverage. that is how we are managing that on our leverage loan side. on our private side, we are able

to jump in there and take advantage of dislocation. so if a company is coming to the market, if a sponsor or private equity firm wants to buy a public company, they cannot finance that in the bank markets because they need full committed capital. so we can step in and provide significant capital. we did that for a large chemical acquisition in europe this year, where we provided half of the financing they needed before they made their bid, and they went out and placed the rest of it later. so i think those kind of situations in this kind of market will be where we need to be more aggressive. >> i was about to ask you, and the heat of the pandemic, what risks are not worth taking. but you just pointed to an opportunity. it is worth asking you then, what opportunities are you seeing to put money to work? what looks like the most investable opportunities? to be careful,

because we are being cautious. we have been talking to investors about this concept of cautiously active for the last six months. what we have described that as, we are worried about where this pandemic leads. we don't have great insight into when we will be back in theaters or back on airlines, so we have been cautious about that, but we have been active because the higher-quality names traded off with the lower quality names, and we were able to invest on those, and the private markets shut down and begin to reopen, and we were able to invest in that. we believe there is always going to be an opportunity. -- across blackstone come in the credit business, in our life science businesses and other business, we provide $2 billion to a company this year in the middle of the crisis, in the form of royalty come in the form of a loan, in the form of some equity, and that money was critical to that company to push through this cycle and to grow.

so i think we will always see those opportunities, and we will try to make sure we use the value of our platform, the scale, the broad nature of our products, because those things will give us those one-off take a shot and do something really important in these markets at the same time that we will continue to make the investments in the public side of our business. dwight scott, the global head of blackstone's investment management unit, gsl. euronet's, we have been telling you for the last hour, euronext andhalted trading it stocks derivatives. this is because of a technical difficulty. so we will see when they reopened. any news that they give us, we will give to you straightaway. this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,

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francine: china's economic recovery from the depths of the covid crisis continues. third-quarter gdp rose 4.9%, missing expectations, but faster than the expansion seen in the second quarter. restrictions tighten as virus cases surge around europe. italy is the latest government to add lockdown measures that prioritize its struggling economy. and shifting the deadline. nancy pelosi sets a tuesday time limit for more progress on u.s. fiscal stimulus if the president wants a deal before the election. good morning, everyone, and happy monday. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. the other big story is euronext. because of a technical glitch, stocks and derivatives are not changing -- are not trading on most of the european markets where euronext is present. portugal, the netherlands, ireland, and -- they are.