looks very much secure. >> half of the economies are going to have come back. the other half will not have come back and can't come back. >> once we get stimulus, once we get a vaccine, the action is going to move very quickly. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 15 days to go until the election. equity futures up 31, 0.9%. mookie betts getting it done for .he l.a. dodgers already can get done for the show -- already getting it done for the show. tom: for those of you worldwide,

this is ferro at his worst. [laughter] his cruelest. thering mr. betts into conversation this early, we say good morning on bloomberg radio in boston. the red sox, worst in the american league. and we move on from there. 15 days until the election. schenker earlier, is there going to be a debate thursday night? is that still up in the air? jonathan: we understand there will be a debate thursday night, but who knows? that's the problem for this market. my question coming into this week is basically how much of the medium-term outlook hinges on what happens in the next two weeks. how many of our market participants have come on this program and actually believe that? tom: we have two people could talking melt up. ben laidler at our hudson and

chris verrone -- at tower hudson, and chris verrone. he is looking at the number of stocks above their 200 day moving average and other smoke and mirrors to really get him a bullish cast. you wonder if it is the markets expecting out into next year. jonathan: he was thinking japan. he was thinking sweden. tom: very international. he listened that she listened. jonathan: i did -- you listened. jonathan: i did. i just had a little dabble in "bloomberg surveillance." plenty of happy talk thi morning. tom: happy talk you brought up -- happy talk? you brought up mookie betts. [laughter] if jeromeill find out powell is happy or not. the focus of the discussion is digital currencies and cross-border payments. of course, people looking for

any guidance he may give in terms of whether the fed could ease again and what the parameters are. , christine lagarde is speaking at an ecb conference, talking about pairing science of being a central banker with the practice of it. people also looking for further easing measures that could come from the ecb. an treasury secretary steven mnuchin is visiting the middle east. no one cares. what people care about is that he is not in washington, d.c., despite the fact that nancy pelosi has a new deadline of tuesday to get some sort of agreement on a new fiscal support deal in order to get something done before the election. markets are moving on this. if it is a good headline, they will move. if it is a bad headline, they will move. in the story gets played on repeat over and over again, and here we are. happy monday. jonathan: so long as they are talking, i guess that is bullish. here's the wikipedia entry. betts, an american

professional baseball field or for the l.a. dodgers. he previously played for the boston red sox." no idea what happened there. tom:tom: it's that kind of weekend. me,e ferro is trash in on you had a better weekend apparently, but it wasn't worse than me. "shopping. i -- begin christmas shopping. about englisheans football until i ran into young ferro. it's a 90 minute game, and i guess the tots mailed it in. hat in god's name is 90 plus four? this is like the times of the west hymns. minute, end in the 90th they added on four of stoppage time. tom: did you see how he kicked

from farther out? jonathan: i know you might bring that up. i know. i know. tom: lisa, do you want to chime in here? lisa: not really. [laughter] jonathan: i know what lisa is thinking. let's get to the markets. let's do that. squeezing out a third week of gains on the s&p 500 last week. equity futures this morning, they are talking. more talking. we are up 0.9% on the s&p 500. in the fx market, euro firmer. no idea why. weaker dollar story in the mix. we can talk about the data out of china. that recovery in the second largest economy is really impressive. tom: what you do is compare and contrast. it is really important to take that statistic and compare it to the negative statistics you are seeing in somewhat of the world on a relative basis. look at what renminbi does, down to 6.68. jonathan: recovery in china,

moaned him in the united states -- momentum in the united states. lost momentum, perhaps, in europe. tom: what did you do this weekend? i had a great weekend. jonathan: i was just thinking yesterday evening, after watching that game, what can i do at 7:00 eastern when i open the show? the markets, stimulus talks. tom: election, jon. there's a debate. jonathan: 15 days away, there is. tom: janet yellen the end :00 our. jonathan: looking forward -- at the 8:00 hour. jonathan: looking forward to that. tots?ow about those jonathan: she will of that. we're joined now by seema shah, principal global investors. first question to you, i asked it at the top of the hour, how much hinges on the next two weeks as you put together your 2021 calls? seema: not that much.

we seen it time and time again. if you look at all of the ,lection years through time volatility tends to ebb away. at the end of all of this, markets passed through the noise. the markets just go back to what really drives them, which is going to be the pandemic and central banks. and a little bit of fiscal stimulus, if we see that. those are the key drivers. it is not really what happens in the next three or four weeks. tom: we've been doing a lot on equity. tell me what is tradable in fixed income. where is the opportunity in yield? seema: it is a tough question at the moment. we still like investment grade, but of course, we are reducing some of our allocation. we actually like preferred securities. you get a bit of a pickup. it is still a relatively safe

area. of course, was in high yield, you have to be in the better part of that spectrum because the economic recovery, there's a lot of potholes ahead, and it's going to be those riskier companies that you're going to see that playing out in. so you have to be careful. lisa: when we look at equities come of story really has been do you buy into the rotation, the cyclical story rather than just big tech. where you stand on that? aema: we have maintained pretty significant positioning to big tech through all of this. we still really like that sector. as long as you've got the ongoing pandemic, continued concentration of working from home in reliance on technology, it still plays out. if you've got economic backdrop, which is a little bit risky like right now, then you just need companies with strong balance sheets and positive cash flow. you are getting that from big tech.

we know that central banks are not moving anytime soon. having said that, there are hurdles ahead. we have to think about regulation. we have to think about the fact that they have to meet really higher earnings expectations. through all of that, i don't want to say we haven't got any exposure to cyclicals because i think this is the time to start thinking about adding a bit more exposure. if we have a continued recovery, cyclicals should do better next year. jonathan: a recovery where? when you look at things right now, momentum in the united states, the really good recovery emerging in china and nothing of the sort in europe. where do you want that cyclical exposure? seema: a little bit in the u.s. i agree, europe is a perennial disappointment. every time with think it can come through, something else comes along. certainly right now, it is not an area which is particularly attractive. anything which has got any kind of close relationship with china

, and even the new sectors of technology there, really should do well. i think that is where that cyclical exposure can come from. , small-cap, cap there's an opportunity to raise your exposure. jonathan: seema shah of principal global investors, thank you. ahead of a q. week as we count you down to -- ahead of a key week as we count you down to the general election 15 days away. 0.9%. s&p 500, we are up up 10 basis points on the 30 year yield this morning. tom: this really bears watching into tuesday and wednesday. not so much today. 80 we break out with nasdaq 100 up a solid presenter so. back-and-forth, or can we put on two or three days of this kind of excellence in a row? that jury is out. jonathan: does the happy talk in

d.c. actually turn into real policymaking? because that has been absent the last several months. lisa: i just wonder how many times can we get a head fake. it is like lucy and the football, and charlie. it is like a cartoon. we see this again and again. why would anything get done now? there's still a lot of distance, including between both sides of the republican party. who trades on these headlines? jonathan: that's the point, there's three sides to this right now. the administration, house democrats, and senate leadership. there's been the idea that they can lean on leader mcconnell to get this through the senate. tom: no evidence whatsoever. jonathan: i haven't seen it either. tom: you've got to wait to get down a number of paragraphs before the senator from kentucky shows up. i just had a frightening idea. i wonder if jon knows who lucy

is, and the fact that charlie brown looked a little bit like me. [laughter] lisa: i never even thought of that. jonathan: i've got that. i can to give the cartoon. tom: you've got that? jonathan: have i told you about my friend mookie? good friend of mine. tom: oh god. [laughter] jonathan: the bars are shutting qamar and say? maybe that is -- are shutting, aren't they? maybe that is the frustration. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. house speaker nancy pelosi has set a deadline if president trump wants a pre-election stimulus plan. she says there has to be more progress on a deal by tomorrow. the president has said he is willing to go higher than the $1.8 trillion his team has been trying to offer, but senate republicans enough go along with

something that large. i recovery from dependent continued in the third quarter. ago,ose 4.9% from a year less than expected, but higher than the second quarter number. and while, china's retail sales through 3.3% in september and industrial production was up almost 7%. the number of coronavirus cases around the world has now hit 40 million. infections have been picking up in europe and the u.s. midwest. it took six months to reach the first 10 million cases. the last 10 million were added in just 32 days. brazilnd yet, and account for more than half of the cases. bloomberg has learned british officials are prepared to water down from minister boris johnson's lawbreaking brexit legislation. that move could revive failing talks with the european union. rewrites parts of the deal he struck with the eu last year.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

rep. pelosi: are we going with it or not, and what is the language? i'm optimistic. jonathan: it is a market long on

optimism. house speaker nancy pelosi speaking on abc this week. tomorrow, 12:30 eastern, speaking on bloomberg tv and radio with david westin. a conversation you do not want to miss. here's the price action this monday morning. squeezing out a third week of gains on the s&p 500, and we add some weight to it this morning. we advanced 0.8%. in the bond market, yield market up -- yield up. $1.1767ancing, overnight. encouraging.where encouraging economic data out of china. the president in penciling it tomorrow, and thursday a debate with joe biden. tom: it is going to be interesting. let's get right to it. there is so much to talk about.

kevin cirilli joining us, chief washington correspondent. we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and television. tottenhampless in this weekend. they looked like the new york jets the back half of the game. i went through and looked at all the different polls, led by survey monkey. you've got to be kidding me. to the polls have any veracity right now to pros like you? kevin: yes. atul state -- battleground state polls came out this weekend that showed president trump within the margin of error in states like michigan and wisconsin. the campaignme of stops he's made in recent days, including georgia, for critics of the president's administration, they would argue het these are states that really should have had shored up

at this point in the race. however, that goes against the reporting i am hearing, which is that he is going to these conservative areas to run up the margins in conservative districts in order to remind rural voters that they better show up and vote on november 3. the only way that president trump gets reelected is if deeply conservative districts amplify their turnout and have a wider margin of victory. that is the task. tom: is there any evidence that those deeply conservative districts, the people that made this guy win four years ago, are they voting by mail? are they voting by carrier pigeon? or are they going to show up in the line at 10:00 a.m.? kevin: the latter. based upon the mail-in ballot polling and where the breakdown lies, republicans are more likely to vote in line at polls and to show up on election day, and democrats are more likely to cast a ballot and mail in ahead

of time. that is why, quite frankly, the media networks and whatnot are bracing for a long several days following the november 3 elections in terms of the count. jonathan: what i hear from you is the president doubling down on the existing strategy. no changes with two weeks to go. with that be right? kevin: that is absolutely correct. and to be frank with you, there is this hunker down mentality that often exists in businesses when businesses are facing scrutiny on capitol hill from lawmakers. reelectionresident's campaign that feels that they have been there before, that they've had the back up against the wall before, and they are ready to bulldoze through. this week's presidential debate is incredibly important. i was struck by seeing a line the president added to his campaign speeches over the weekend, which is he is now

positioning himself as a donor underdog, using the same line of attack he drew against hillary thaton in 2016, which is he will not be beholden to donors, in contrast to joe biden. i would note the biden campaign making very strategic inroads in suburbs and trying to urge the same type of turnout, trying to dangle that political caret two suburban republican voters who might not mail in a ballot -- political carrot to suburban republican voters who might not mail in a ballot. lisa: there's a question about republican unity, especially as another round of fiscal support talks continues. senator john cornyn of texas comparing president trump to entering a relationship with a spouse, trying to change them, and failing. how big is the divide right now between republicans? yes, really. kevin: i think it is a massive

divide. based upon my reporting, speaker pelosi is calling for their to be some type of deal within the next 24 hours in terms of a vote. the democrats in the house still pushing for $2.2 trillion. president trump has said he wants something bigger than that , and leader mcconnell still around $500 billion. tom: is speaker pelosi vice president biden's friend on the stimulus debate? or if they do a deal, isn't it a major win for the president? , and it will be no doubt spun as such. you can play it all different question.ides without tom: ok. lisa, you lost my change of thought there. changing the spouse, what was that about? [laughter] lisa: i knew that would get you.

kevin: i'm not taking the bait. lisa: john cornyn of texas came out and said the relationship with trump are like women who get married and think they are going to change their spouse and don't. tom: no way. i'm shocked! [laughter] oh my god. lisa: it doesn't ring true to you? we can go there. jonathan: you want to go there? go on. i will leave you to it. lisa is asking tom whether you've got any experience. tom: daily. daily. a step back,king the reason why i brought this up. jonathan: please stick a large step back -- please take a large step back. lisa: the reason being there this confidence that leader mcconnell can get some sort of andulus agreement passed, yet there is a huge divide that seems to be widening. this is going to make it

difficult for pelosi to get some things through, and frankly, for president trump get something through. jonathan: we got about a minute left. you've got a bit more rope if you want it. lisa: and you can use it to hang yourself. [laughter] i'm out. you can talk about relationships now. jonathan: i am going to thank kevin cirilli, bloomberg washington correspondent. no one wants my thoughts on that right now. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's your price action. shaping up as follows. i'm not going to change. [laughter] equity futures up 28, up 0.8%. 0.4%, $1.1767. europe is looking really tough right now. tom: can you look at different stocks? [laughter]

jonathan: thicker tie? tom: can you wear a thicker tie? no, you can't wear no tie, and change the socks. polkadots? jonathan: from new york and london, this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business,

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♪ ofathan: it is the morning monday, october 19. election tomorrow, and in the united states of america. two hours away from the opening bell, equity futures drifting higher. more happy talk around a fiscal stimulus deal. no idea if we actually get a deal. tom says yes. lisa is laughing. euro-dollarxchange, $1.1768. pmi's at the end of the week, key data point for the continent. in the bond market, yields higher by three basis points. curve steeper. your yield on the 10 year, 0.7756%. the fed has a lot of

credibility and a lot of tools, and the market is reluctant to take interest rates of government bond yields to suitably higher levels. jonathan: here's the take of ofe schumacher wells fargo, writing the following. "we expect this fixation to end ." the next few days tom: the next few days is really part of it. mr. schumacher is a legend that ubs. we are thrilled he is macro strategist now for the wells fargo bank, and we are thrilled he could do enough this morning. a macroat line is strategist looking at the timeline of an election. i believe elections end. then what? michael: that is what i am looking forward to. can't wait for us to talk about something besides stimulus and the election. our big concern is the results

will be delayed. states thecouple of don't start counting until the night of november 3. we were worried this will extend a weaker to be on november 3. it sets the stage for a lot of market volatility. as far as stimulus goes, that just seems laughable. tom: we've talked to other people in the syndicate as well. i think of john normand at j.p. morgan as well, which is how you link equities into the foreign-exchange market. our equities leading or following? michael: i would generally say equities lead fx a bit. but the bigger point is they react to the same issues. if there is an overall risk on theme driven by these strange stimulus talks, it is going to lift equities and probably make the u.s. dollar take a hit. twothan: are you looking at

different baskets, asia am and then europe? because there's two different stories playing out in the market. michael: you've got to separate in particular the british situation versus eu. that is a huge event, very european centric, so it is important to try to separate asia em, and perhaps latam as well. jonathan: we can talk about that a little bit later. tom wood maybe love to do that now come up ash tom would maybe love -- tom would maybe love to do that now, but let's avoid it. michael: you've got to think about the central bank policy response. it has been overwhelming. central banks are all in. we think virtually any hints of weakness will come with additional, date of moves -- additional accommodative moves. the challenge in the europe is you have 70 countries trying to agree on what time it is, they have a difficult time agreeing

to spend money. in europe isial limited. lisa: we saw even the fed balance sheet increase the most in several months last week. markets are doing just fine. what is the threshold for them to come in with more firepower, and what is that firepower? michael: we get this question quite a bit. people say, is there a limit on the fed balance sheet? for our perspective, we would say no. the fed has already ramped it up by enormous amount. does anyone really understand what the fed balance sheet is anyway? probably not most people. if they take that number up sustained chili -- up substantially, we doubt it. how much of a rate increase on the backend could the fed tolerate? we think if it is for the theht reasons, if covid situation improves, the fed might be perfectly content to see the 10-year treasury

yield go up to 1% in a matter of a month or two. that probably wouldn't phase it a lot. it would have to be a more prudish is reason than simply -- more pernicious reason rather than just improving covid. lisa: i wonder, which asset class to you think is being bolstered the most by the fed ongoing intervention -- by the fed's ongoing intervention, and central bank's around the world? michael: we are sitting here at 10-year treasury yield at 68 basis points. since then, bonds have been zero. equities have gone on fire. it seems to us it is pretty clear, it is equities moving right down the risk curve. equities, high yield. the riskier the better. those are the assets that have benefited. tom: this is your wheelhouse. does the underpinning economics and global finance lead to

certain instability at some point, or are there so-called lied paths that get us -- so-called glide paths that get us to a successful conclusion out there? michael: it is interesting. you consider the ratio of debt to gdp and a lot of major countries like the u.s., and it has certainly got this year, is that the source of instability may be down the road. the question is, defund rates stay really low? does economic growth pick up? we saw decent numbers out of china overnight. if we see a reasonable recovery over the next 12 months, it probably sets the stage for that instability to diminish. but if the economies bump along at a very grim rate, it could be an unstable situation. tom: but which are you modeling, a grim rate or half-full? on this show, you give opinions

each and every way. [laughter] michael: we think the recovery is going to be descent. really it is predicated on having some sort of vaccine available in the first quarter or two that is widely distributed. if that happens, you will see growth pick up quite a bit, so we're definitely not in the grim reaper camp. tom: to me, in the middle of october, this is the arts call of every single house. what is the economy going to do to be in underpinning for the fed, to allow for all of this liquidity to lift assets higher? jonathan: don't you think the difference between $2 trillion stimulus from a fiscal side can make a difference? that is why i think the next couple of weeks are really important. what does the position of congress look like? what does the fiscal impulse look like? you are optimistic, constructive on europe recovering as well. we have pmi flirting with negative territory coming in with extra restrictions. that was a loss of momentum --

there was a loss of momentum even before things started shutting down again. where does your optimism come from? michael: we think the notion of ongoing lockdowns etc. is going to disappear pretty quickly, assuming there is a vaccine available in the next quarter or 2, 3 at the most. if you get a widespread vaccination by june 30 of next year, i, growth ought to pick up dramatically. people think about lockdowns at eight -- lockdowns as ancient history. lisa: given that we have record numbers in italy and france, talking about further lockdowns, what would you have to see with respect to the virus to change your europe call? michael: for us to get much more pessimistic, we would have to see the notion that vaccinations are available soon disappear or at least be pushed off substantially into the future. for instance, if a number of the leading companies working on

vaccines say we've got trouble with this trial, we have to postpone by an not just days or weeks, but months, that would make us a lot more pessimistic. tom: in the markets, where did the financial sectors fit in? on a global basis, the european banks with usually depressed book value, and even in the united states. i don't want you to comment directly on wells fargo, of course. that's an appropriate. but how does the stock ownership of big banks fall into all of this? michael: i think the major issue for the financial system in general and for banking is you got to be able to pick up some spread somewhere, somehow. it seems obvious, but risk assets perform so well right now, it is difficult to do that in credit. you can do it in mortgages potentially. but as far as plane government bonds, there's not much there. thatrms of banks making much money with credit sensitive products, probably a steeper

yield curve for that to work out. jonathan: always great to catch up. wellsl schumacher there, fargo securities. this has got to be a problem that goes back a decade now. the majority of loans comes through the banking system in europe. that is a huge difference from the united states, where so much as done in markets. banks have been struggling with negative interest rates as well. what really faces me in europe, starting to get a taste of this in the u.k. as well, where does the enthusiasm come from for a rates outside of the fx channel? i don't get it. i think many people share that view. tom: yes, many people share that view. pushing against that are economists who buy the model. this goes back to the wonderful and late marvin goodfriend. you've got to have the courage to do magnitude or amplitude of negative interest rates, and we have never done that within this suppose experiment. jonathan: what do investors do

the moment they see negative rates? they shred bank equity. they run. it's not an encouraging sign, is it? we've got a great set of listeners here on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv. ian up at el er cambridge, a very important observation away from what we do every day. he suggests that the tots are not as bad as the jets. that probably needs some explanation. lisa: the jets are 0-5. jonathan: i didn't realize you were a jets fan as well as a mets fan. lisa: i'm not. i actually skew to the giants, who also suck, excuse my language. skew to theew -- i giants, what does that mean? you either support them or you don't. [laughter] lisa: all new york teams are

losing commodes is why we will continue to talk about london football from here on out. jonathan: you've got that -- tom: you've got that right. jonathan: relatively speaking. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. fullerup next, deborah of the university of washington school of medicine. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is the largest deal in the shale industry since the collapse in energy demand earlier this year. conocophillips has agreed to buy concho resources for $9.7 billion in stock. the takeover will create a heavyweight driller in america's most prolific oil fields, the permian basin of west texas and new mexico. house speaker nancy pelosi has given the white house a deadline and says no more progress on a proposed stimulus package by tomorrow, and it won't get done

before the election. it is not just the house and the administration that are involved. senate republicans are bulking at the site -- are balking at the size of the package. president trump is trying to put a positive spin on his fundraising deficit to joe biden. he is telling supporters that he could raise money quickly, but he doesn't want to be beholden to donors. trump's campaign and the republican national committee raised a combined $240 million in september, well sort of biden's $383 million. a cease-fire between armenia and azerbaijan has fallen apart just hours before taking -- after taking effect. it is the second truce brokered by russia this month. hundreds have been killed in the three weeks since fighting broke out. we are one step closer to what to be the world's largest ipo. ant group has won

approval to list in hong kong. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. gupta.ika this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: he will surrender your future to the virus. he's going to lock down. he will listen to the scientists. if i listened totally to the

scientists, we would have a country that would be in a massive depression. instead, we are looking at ship. take a look at the numbers -- like a rocketship. take a look at the numbers. mr. biden: experts say we are likely to lose as many as 200,000 additional lives. thishan: there's a debate coming thursday between president trump and former vice president joe biden. both of them on the campaign trail this weekend, coming into this week. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. quick snapshot of the markets for you. price action, a lift for equities. a lift for treasury yields, too. euro, about the firm or approaching $1.18. there the move and bonds. we give up some of the gain -- the move in bonds. gain inup some of the yields. tom: right now, we are joined by

deborah fuller of the washington school of medicine. it is our definitive microbiology program, and people nationwide would agree with that. we just heard from the president. we heard from vice president biden as well. one antiscience, and one pro science. now deborah fuller on what happens when we pick up the debris november 4. what happens if we are antiscience next year? dr. fuller: that's a good question. science always bears out. we were, for example, able to predict this fall surge. i think in the long run, science will win out. tom: we go into the autumn, into the winter, and come out next year with the inauguration in the depths of winter. always statistically a difficult month. tell us about the weather and

the overlay of your bacteria with this terrible virus. we virologists have a saying that if the virus can, it will. what that really means is that it will find every opportunity to replicate itself and infect new hosts and spread. it hase past months, been seeding itself in community everywhere.nities schools and colleges of reopened. we are getting pandemic fatigue and restrictions are being relaxed. this is creating a perfect storm for this virus to surge. it is like throwing fertilizer on our weeds. lisa: not the description you want to hear about a pandemic. the numbers have been staggering over the weekend. i believe if he thousand new cases each day diagnosed of covid. is this as bad as you projected

we would see heading into the fall, or on a trajectory that has you concerned about being worse? dr. fuller: it is definitely on a trajectory that is looking worse and worse, and we can see this happening in other .ountries such as in europe the good news is it is in our power to control this virus without having to go into a shutdown. now more than ever, we need to use the tools we have on hand to control this transition. hygiene, masks, using social distancing. we need to hold the line until vaccines, which are very close, can be approved and immunizations can start the process of introducing immunity into the population. jonathan: what does vigilance mean without social restrictions? germany has been vigilant. italy has been very vigilant. they are both dealing with the same increase of infections. i just wonder how you avoid that experience and what you are learning from what is happening

in europe at the moment. dr. fuller: i think that haslance is something that to occur at a large population level. we are talking 70%, 80% of people really following the guidelines. ifre's been productions that 70%, 80%, 90% of people wore masks, we wouldn't have as much transition. and there are people in smaller communities that are much more vigilant, where we are seeing a slower rise in the infection rate. lisa: can you talk a little bit about the mortality rate? people saying that the mortality rate has been coming down as doctors get better at treating the virus and the possible effects. you've got the likes of advisers to president trump saying, let's just move to herd immunity. stop crippling the economy and move forward. what do you say to that? dr. fuller: the one thing that we don't know for sure are the virus.rm effects of this

while scientists are learning more and are able to recognize the progression of the disease earlier, and we have the tools to help treat that, even those who recover can have long-term effects from it. the idea of achieving immunity by just letting the virus run rampant, that is just too high of a cost. tom: i am going to stop the show and bring in a little geeky here with dr. fuller. we are doing this because ferro has been a pain today about mookie betts and the los angeles dodgers. immunity is relatively static on the x axis. in my right to demonstrate herd mmunity -- mi right that --

am i right that to demonstrate takes a long time? basically, herd immunity to pros like you take forever, right? dr. fuller: right. and with this virus, it is unpredictable. there's evidence in multiple immunitycating that induced by the virus will not be long-lasting, and makes uses up double to reinfection. it is really -- makes you susceptible to reinfection. it is really not a solution. jonathan: what do we make of the hopes of a vaccine being effective for a long time? dr. fuller: the way we work on vaccines is we study a virus. when a virus infects the host, it is a battle between the body and the virus. the virus has its own tools to

try to manipulate your immune system to benefit itself. , usuallyd of the day the body wins out and you have some immunity. with coronavirus, that appears to be more short-term. the x and i'll adjusts, we have developed vaccines that are designed to theoretically be better than nature, and we are starting to see this bear out already in some of the clinical trials that have recorded the results. the antibody responses are much higher than what you would get by natural immunity, and they appear to be looking like they are persisting. jonathan: we are all hopeful. appreciate you joining us this morning. thank you, dr. deborah fuller of university of washington. in the price action this monday morning, things pick up. aroundfutures up by 28. treasuries lower, yields higher. the 10 year yield around 77 basis points. call it three basis points

higher on the day. in the fx market, euro firmer. up 0.6%. stronger euro, weaker dollar. from london and new york, coming up next, marilyn watson of blackrock on this bond market. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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