sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. >> people talk about a k-shaped recovery and that's true. those at the bottom are having a very hard time. >> it's not clear exactly how you get people to spend the money and get the economy going. >> the market isn't as well prepared as it normally is for these downside events. >> central banks and governments are in this together. there's one wallet. >> this is a market thinking at some point stimulus is going to happen. >> we need support for the economy, both for monetary and fiscal policy. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jon ferro and lisa bramowitz.

tom: it's simulcast on television and radio and we welcome all of you around the world and across the nation. if you're in that odd east coast october, it's the density of fog, for those of you on radio across washington to boston, drive careful. the fog is never -- it's like a london fog, jon, it's so bad. tell me london is gorgeous. jon: it's got a london feel. london is always gorgeous, beautiful. what else do you want me to say. tom: thank you. n radio it's a tapestry of gorgeosity. jon: the beautiful sky. tom: that's a postcard jon just put up. i really want to focus away from the market and data, futures negative, dow down, and we forget the claims are in this hour, this nation on a

labor basis, there's no other definition, it's not an opinion, it's flat on its back and you bring that over to a debate tonight, do you think it will come up? jon: i think it will come up repeatedly, tom. at the opening of the hour, the professor said it perfectly. for people at the bottom who are really, really struggling, they're really, really struggling. in the midst of this pandemic, we said it repeatedly. we're the lucky ones and get to work from home. many don't have the luxury of being able to work from home. even when we reopened many of the companies didn't reopen and if they did they had to resize the business and those people have been laid off and here we are in october still talking about another stimulus package. why? because this economy has not reopened to the point we can let this economy run on its own in a self-sustaining way and still needs assistance in the argument of many. tom: we'll have an expert give us perspective on claims. lisa, all this folds over, jon

mentioned the professor and his student at yale university a gazillion years ago. i've never seen her fired up about stimulus. what's your update this morning? linda: lisa: what we're hearing from federal officials, it's increasingly strong language saying we need fiscal -- frankly lowering interest rates and buying more bonds and possibly even going further in riskier assets isn't going to get money to the lower tier of individuals of earners of americans, of people around the world. people are looking to fiscal and without that, how long can this recovery be sustained? we'll find out. tom: we're going to find out and skip the data check here. simply 10-year-year-old 1.8% and a little bit of red on the screen. the six under 29.11. a senior strategist and is wonderfully eclectic about

linking foreign exchange dynamics to everything out there. we're thrilled he can join us. jeff, i want to talk about the persistent stroppinger emby and the chinese yuan. is that managed by beijing or the market speaking? jeff: a bit of both. beijing is managing it less. and the market is saying you're not managing it, let's see how we can push renminbi stronger because it's getting stronger for china. if you look, you see the massive i.p.o. market coming through but at the end of the day the one strong spot is exports. so the market is basically telling the p.o.c. tolerance up ahead. tom: how does renminbi refuse leak to the other currencies to the pacific rim and indeed over to the u.s. dollar? geoff: there's a few ways, the

positive side is stronger renminbi and stronger purchasing power for the chinese and the fabled chinese consumer the world desperately needs to come through and they have more purchasing power and can spend and lift the economy around them. however, if china actually gets word about this and starts to push back and starts to intervene than korea and taiwan will get nervous and don't want them centralized but will give everyone a lot of space especially korea where the market is quite warm. jon: let's talk about levels dollar china 668 now and saw 664 earlier in the session. what kind of level do you have in mind? geoff: well, i think when we get sustained at 650, that kind of level, the p.o.c. may need to do a double take and go back to 2014 and 20145, when did the p.o.v. start to talk down the renminbi when the talk about

spare values and that's the key phrase from the governor and we're heading towards 610 people were talking about it breaking and nowhere near there yet. all the pboc needs to ship on the wire, no one said a single word about the renminbi and telling you these levels are happy to continue to advance. jon: down to 650, geoff, let's build. the derivatives on the trade, stronger currency. people have been bidding up the carpet price and out of the trades have been attached to the stronger currency, what is vulnerable at the moment, geoff? geoff: from a positioning point, we've seen the aussie adjust a bit but the chilean pace as and aussie dollar, i don't think the aussie is that vulnerable and would like it to move forward a bit. if you're an oil related currency, that's where you don't want to own the china, all the comments about the leadership next year and next

week announces the next five-year band and china wants to move away from fossil fuels as well and go to early carbon neutrality and shrink the carbon footprint. that's not a good story. go long in iron ore but for oil and energy and the rest i'm not so sure. lisa: the flip side of the wrong rouen and a weak dollar call, what could be the catalyst to further weaken the dollar from here? geoff: a massive reallocation strategy and irrespective what happens to the election. you look at the underlying bid for chinese government bonds. look at the yields now at 315, 320 on the hedge spacer. and as und hedge flow long as china continues to grow and the rest of the world and u.s. underperforms on growth the reallocation into chinese

assets and asian assets which is outperforming will undermine the dollar. it's not the usual suspects so markets want to be short dollars against the renminbi and the korean juan and the taiwan dollar and the rest, against the euro sterling not so much, kind of? the same boat. lisa: in the short term there's underpricing contentious election and what was called credit chaos he's predicting around the u.s. election. does the dollar strengthen in that type of scenario? geoff: volatility is going to be key there and if we go back to a march kind of scenario when markets are scrambling for liquidity, then probably it will be a dollar positive story but having said that, all the facilities established by the federal reserve in march, they can be reactivated very, very quickly but don't think it's going to be as severe as we saw in march and be wary of what you want to own the dollar

again, dollar swiss down side and people want to own those as well as the election hedges. lisa: how much is the u.n. strengthling on a biden win with the expectation baked into markets? geoff: i don't think that is a catalyst right now, it's more on the china alone, its own economy and own numbers are strengthening slow and also with the allocation with what's going on in the equity markets and big tech i.p.o.'s coming up and further ramping of the bond market, it's that reallocation to china which has been building for some time now and again, it's moving independently of the polls. if the trade relationship can be, let's just say less chaotic the next few years will be positive for china but will be positive for the u.s. and world as well because global trade starts to normalize so i don't see any inconsistencies with good u.s. markets and chinese markets but for now it's a china stand alone story. jon: a question from me, you've always got a favorite trade, what is it right now?

geoff: right now again, i like the china proxies, i want to juan ssies and the korean and funding is my favorite and the b.o.e. has it wrong and needs to do more ahead and what they announce today is not enough so i want to add to my sterling shorts. jon: a buyer of the china proxies. great to catch up. geoff yu, tom keene, the language of the square mile was a snapshot of it for the last seven minutes. tom: what's great is the dynamics and fluidity of the math as well. you take what geoff yu just said there and if i'm in a meeting with him on wall street punching up gdpkrw he wants to go long yuan, short sterling and it's slapped up right now white right within the trading range going well back four or five years. can you effect that trade for

me, jon, right now and make your usual 6%? jon: you want me to make 6% for you right now? i wish. tom: we call that two field goals. jon: i think the trade from his perspective makes a lot of sense, more challenges to come for the u.k. in the economy, the bank of england threatening negative interest rates and several policymakers are and a continuation of a better story in china. if you're looking for a currency pair, that's it, sterling against the u.s. dollar has been subornly resilient over brexit headlines. tom: i would notice the news flow in all the worry out there, the leases of the world, worrying and worrying. lisa: let me tell you this -- tom: you get through the election and move on. lisa: i'm excited for sterling to go down and weaken versus the dollar because then we get better gifts from jon. jon: all i can think of is lisa and what she said the other day. i walk around with my head down tom: did you write that down?

lisa: how many things have you written down? jon: get to the facts. tom: there's a tattoo parlor down in sojo, i'm looking at the ground. jon: this is beautiful. lisa. you've been to a tattoo parlor? tom: i have. jon: i knew straight away which tattoo parlor you meant because they've been lining up for makeup again. tom: you got that right. gosier and there's a tattoo parlor there. get a tattoo one day, tom. producer is screaming at me. me.

>> the final debate is in nashville and one of the final chances for president trump to change the narrative of the campaign. polls show him losing to joe biden. debate rules have changed and the candidates microphone will be muted at times when the other candidate is speaking. and the president has claimed that's unfair. he says the same thing about the choice of topics and the moderator being nbc's christian welker. nancy pelosi and treasury secretary steven mnuchin made progress on a coronavirus stimulus package but senate republicans are reluctant to embrace any deal led by pelosi. language for the bill would have to be drafted by the weekend if lawmakers are to vote on it before election day. nd in the u.k., there's been unveiled another bailout for businesses hurt by the coronavirus and latest package is aimed at pubs and restaurants under the lockdown. the u.k. with job support aid

and dropping employer contributions. bloomberg quick takes powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 companies. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg.

>> we are not going to tolerate foreign interference in our elections or any criminal activity that threatens the sanctity of your vote. we've been working for years as a community to build resilience

in our election infrastructure and today that infrastructure remains where he kill yent. jon: chris wray, the f.b.i. director on the news the last 24 hours, the allegation of meddling of iran and russia in the u.s. election. from new york and london, good morning, alongside tom crean -- m keene and lisa aim ramowicz. a mild risk this thursday morning. it lingers just a little bit. yields down a single basis point, 0.81%. ro-dollar 118 it 22 down .30%. tom: point 81% of point 83% of the high yesterday. on nashville in the debate someone with experience, rick davis is a bloomberg contributor and his service to john mccain in the election

where mccain took under 57% of the vote in conservative tennessee and we're thrilled rick davis could join us today. the company in line, rick davis is a gentleman from delaware and scranton needs to pick up the kind of tennessee voters that voted for john mccain, they've clearly turned republican. can biden at the margin pick up those voters? rick: it will be tricky in a place like tennessee but it depends on which part of the state. as you know, that state is divided along its horizontal axis and the further you get into the cities and the east, the more moderate voters you have and you go to west tennessee and it's a totally different picture. so i do think that some of those voters may migrate and we see a lot of evidence in the polling data now that part of what is migrating is an ideology but personality. tom: personality, let's take it out of tennessee to the states that matter, jon and lisa and i

have had real conflicting reports. what is the davis take now on the momentum of these two candidates in those key state polls? rick: i spent a lot of time in arizona politics over my career and that's a good place to look because you have one of the largest counties in america, maricopa county, it's a swing county in the sense you win maricopa, you win the state. republicans have dominated in maricopa county which is why you've had so many statewide republicans and national elections have gone republican in arizona. last time it went for a democrat, it was in bill clinton's second term. right now i would say arizona is leaning democratic which would be quite a big deal and there is no pathway for trump to get to 270 without arizona. when you look what's happening there, it's the suburban women and elderly voters, arizona is a great state to retire in if you like 120 degrees in the summer. nd those women suburban voters

who historically supported republicans back in 2018 started migrating to democrats and they are still headed that way today. lisa: aside from the democrat-republican hjorth race is the issue of policy, in particular having to do with the supreme court and joe biden, the democratic presidential nominee saying in a recent cbs 60 minutes interview he would form a commission to study the u.s. court system, this in response perhaps questions about whether he would support court packing. what do you take from this response is this politically savvy or basically red as court packing basically preliminarily? rick: as republican we used to win a lot of elections against democrats because of just this problem. there was no reason for them to bring up this issue of court packing but the left side of his party couldn't help themselves and in response to e current debate about the trump selection for the supreme

court, they let this come out. so all of a sudden an issue that was not at all in the public domain throws right on the presidential calendar. biden has done a horrible job of answering the question, simple question, are you planning on expanding the court. all he had to do was say no at this point in time i don't have a plan to expand the court. in a nod to his left flank he clammed up and won't answer the question and is a partial answer which drives the debate of court packing all this when a time this thursday, the president's nominee will get voted out of committee probably without any democrats in attendance and you're going to have a new supreme court justice that's kind of missing in the debate. and so it's a strange way for the democrats to handle this issue. they've created this problem for themselves and i really don't think joe biden is doing a particularly good job of answering the question. jon: rick, let's talk about managing the campaign and how you manage a calendar as a campaign manager and how the

early voting we've seen this year changes the game. typically you go out and do the research and sit on it and put it out in october. have things changed this year and did it change for good? rick: it's been changing quite some time. early voting has been steadily increasing the last two decades and so if you have not changed your approach, the calendar actually runs you, you don't run the calendar. and it's one of the great businesses in life where there's a deadline and that deadline is everything. you either win or you lose. right now you've already got 44 million people have voted. in some states, 30%, 40% of the population already voted. if you are now putting out information that is relevant to the outcome of the campaign, you're already late by almost half. so you're right, it's absolutely essential that you manage the clock just like a good dean smith basketball game. and so what i think is happening is the trump campaign

lost their initiative after the convention, early voting began in the start of october, you've had a record amount of early voting so far and it puts them at risk that even though they may do well by election day, it may not be enough to make up for the early vote that has already occurred. jon: rick, fascinating stuff and always enjoy your insight. rick davis, bloomberg contributor. tom keene, isn't that the story, the hill, the climb in the next 12 days. tom: it's going to see the hill to climb and you look at it a different number of ways. let's remember the president has shown a little bit of polling momentum the last number of days. jon, i'm going to just -- you talk about the flip. greg said x number of days ago donald trump is in this race. and greg this morning saying the polling of the last 18 hours is very unfriendly to the president. where is greg going to be on monday? i don't know. jon: look, the polling from georgia, we had "the new york times" poll that had them effectively tied.

the polling from texas, the quinnipiac poll, texas virtually tied. these are states that haven't been blue since 1992 and 1976. you've got to go back, tom, a long, long time for the last time that happened and i think you add in 2016 and why so many people, tom, just don't buy it. tom: i think that's up there. what's important here, jon, you and i can't do the research and lisa can't do the research and we need kevin like he's been doing 24/7 pounding the research. that's the only way to do it, jon. research matters. lisa: that's the research, check it out. for those on radio, it's him at pancake pantry, pancakes, syrup and butter. jon: kevin looks very serious about pancakes, seriously. he looks really, really serious bout those pancakes. bank on -- bacon with them? no parlor pancakes without bacon, i'm told.

tom: two long necks to chase it down. jon: why talk about the eating habits of my compatriots in america ever again. oh, no. tom: that's called having a full nashville.

jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance lot on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz a mime jonathan ferro. --, and i amdata jonathan ferro. the economic data moments away. michael mckee drops by to bring his initial jobless claims. michael: we are just getting the numbers in. 787,000, major drop from last week, which was 898,000. never the big surprise last week when claims went up so much? we get the opposite this time. the previous week's level byised down to 56,000 -- 56,000 to 842,000. a big lip last week that has now -- a big blip last week that has

now gone away. that would be considered good news. we have talked a lot about how you do not want to make a big deal out of the numbers because of the questions about the long-term numbers in states like california, but the change is obviously a major bit of good news in terms of the economy. we have had this story that the economy is slowing down, and it thes at this point like number of jobless claims has fallen off. is --oblem i am having here we go. they say california has fixed its problems and we can show you what has been going on with california. for weeks they have been using the same numbers over and over again. 262,000. recordsk, california

158,877. that is the difference. rolesrnia back on the with more accurate numbers and chose a big decline in overall more accurate numbers. the total number of people getting some kind of benefits falls to 23 million. that is more than one million lower than the week before. that is back to october 3. that is also a big drop. tom: these are unambiguously good for the president. this will be perfect timing for the president at the debate. jonathan, i believe you mentioned larry kudlow miraculously picked up the phone and dialed 1-800-ferro for a conversation. they want to get the message out. these are unambiguously better numbers. michael: yes. they are unambiguously better

numbers when you're looking at the weekly change. when you look at the total number of people still getting jobless benefits, you look at 780,000, the prior high in the great recession was 650,000. we are still way above that and 23 million people still getting benefits is nothing to be too happy about. the president has a sales job to do tonight if he wants to make the case. he have to say it is not only a little bit better but it will keep getting better. lisa: i am looking at the market response and it is not responding that much. i expected to see more of a pop in futures on the heels of much better than expected topless data. why do you think -- than expected jobless data. why do you think people are not responding more to the expected -- the data that was more than expected by analysts? michael: we are all working on these high-frequency numbers on data that is slower to come in.

there are contradictory numbers. some of the opentable table numbers have been down. tsa boardings going up. retail sales have been slow but rising a little bit. what you make of all of this? it is hard to know. with 12 days to go until the election there is uncertainty about what happens. that is tamping down on the market reaction to claims one way or another. the notes i was getting this morning from bond market traders are looking at the jobs report for october, which comes out three days after the presidential election. we get the election out of the way and hopefully know something about who will be running the country and then people turned back to the economy. tom: thank you so much. really interesting report. right now with the very smart research note, great acuity, thomas costerg joins. thomas, i love your paragraph on gasoline demand. you say look at the stuff people

actually do to find the year-over-year drop in gasoline demand and what does it mean for this economy? is downgasoline demand 12% year on year, so that is still a feeble piece of data. that suggests to me the recovery is progressing at a slow pace, and it seems to be stalling going into the fourth quarter. outlook,ent about the especially going into the christmas period of, and the data on gathering demand tends to confirm my view. jonathan: brought in that out. what you see in the high-frequency data? the piece of news that was on the strong side was retail sales. the other data i am looking at is how much, in terms of payments, the federal government is sending in terms of

unemployment benefits, and that is falling off a cliff. we are into an income cliff at the u.s. level, and especially at the household level. this income cliff could lead to a sharp slowdown in consumption. we have to keep in mind that thanksgiving and the christmas shopping season is the most important for the u.s. consumer. we are having this income cliff at a time when the consumer supposed to go out and spend, and i am nervous about that. jonathan: a lot of people are nervous about the second wave of infections. i wonder from your perspective, if we had that income cliff and we did not offset it the way we did six to nine months ago, and the nature of the next slow down and the laws of momentum, can you explain the difference between what we might experience and what we have experienced? thomas: the recovery was driven by the consumer, again due to high unemployment benefits, -- to rising, but income

make sure i get it right. the problem is we have an income cliff and i do not believe in the theory there is accumulated savings. people pay down their credit cards. going into is we are this crucial shopping season with much less ammo, and the consumer in a much weaker state. if we look at confident surveys, they've been all over the place. if you look at what people are ready to spend on durable goods, i am nervous about that. i think the signals are not good. the fact we have gasoline demand, so this is actual driving from real people, that is still down more than 12%. that is no good going into that fourth quarter. lisa: given the pessimism you just described, and pair that

with the upside beat in fewer jobless claims that just came out that is expected. still an astronomical number compared to history. how much are you looking for the momentum to slow? what are you seeing, and our jobs no longer leading indicator going forward? thomas: in terms of gdp, if we do not have a fiscal package we are looking at zero growth in the fourth quarter after 30% growth in the third quarter. package, ia fiscal still do think in november progress will wake up and pass a small to moderate package that will help to save consumption, in which case i think we did have growth around 5%. it is a choice between 0% and 5% in my view. jonathan: did you say is the -- tom: did you say 0% and 5%? that is a massive canyon. what is the in between. let's say morning in america is a run rate of 2.8% gdp.

how do we get there? one piece of good news in the u.s. is the housing market. again, it has been performing very well, and i'm a bit afraid we will not be able to support growth again in the fourth quarter as it did in the third quarter. boeing 737. we had four engines but now we are running on one, and you see housing losing momentum, consumer spending losing momentum. i'm also worried about corporate investments. i think that would also lose momentum, especially oil sectors. with the recent drop in oil prices, you could see oil investment/. the signals are not good -- you could see oil investments slashed. ,e need more fiscal spending including unemployment benefits to be boosted again.

asking yourm was question about trend growth and he mentioned something north of 2%. do you think best gas coming out of this mess, doesn't have a one handle or two handle? thomas: probably a one handle. the problem is in each recession we lose productivity growth. that is always the case. it is the same thing here. the other worry i am worried about in the u.s. is population growth. what we are seeing and population growth, especially new births. that is scary. you see less population growth come easy less immigration, and that is not good for headline gdp growth. if you have less people, you have less growth. jonathan: you need more productivity. thomas costerg, great to catch up. if you're just tuning in, the data better than expected. that was a very concerned thomas costerg on the path forward. you asked the question about trend growth.

a one handle. growth,is called trend and the other fancy phrase, the bowtie phrase, potential gdp. a number of people very good at this. michael feroli at jp morgan, i think of the wonderful john hermon, they have always modeled a band of growth. the bottom of that band is oneish. the problem is i do not know how politically the nation moves forward with a sub 2% trend growth. jonathan: fuels division and tension. bid off thekets back of a better number. we come down a couple of basis points on tends, on 30's. interesting this market has not responded. lisa mentioned this. not responded to that better-than-expected data. tom: no question about it.

we look at the screen with the four asset classes and lots of red and green. it is not blinking right now. i would go back to the larger , with a 6.68 yuan. that is a big move. jonathan: tomorrow big conversation. national economic director larry kudlow joining us outside the white house on the stimulus conversation. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. some of president trump's advisers are urging him to change his tactics for tonight's final presidential debate in nashville. they are said to have told him to trade his aggressive demeanor for a lower key style. it is not clear what he will do when he faces joe biden. the president trails in the thes and debate is one of

last high-profile chances for him to turn things around. the top u.s. spy chief is accusing iran of meddling in the presidential election. john ratcliffe says the islamic sent a series of intimidating messages to democratic voters. both iran and russia obtained voter registration information and iran is already using it. weinstein managed to be one of the biggest winners in the pandemic selloff. now he is positioning himself to win again before the presidential election. erik schatzker spoke to weinstein in an exclusive interview. >> when i look at help low credit spreads are today versus objective measures of future volatility like the vix, and even when we think about the onslaught of news that is going to come out, i believe credit, when spreads are low as they are today is asymmetric and short volatility, and i want to delve

into that deeply. the markets are rightly telling us there is a good chance for volatility. ritika: global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> when we think about where'd we get money from, the creation of debt and the printing of

money, and where'd we get the support when we are talking about the next bill that might or might not pass, the next stimulus, it has big implications to the economy, to the markets, and so on. tom: ray dalio of bridgewater doing what he has been doing recently, out with a new book, and of course the themes of our macroeconomy, our global political economic system. this was the challenge of bridgewater. many others in alternative investment have challenges as well. never challenged is barry ritholtz, bloomberg opinion columnist hanging on every word of the debate tonight. opportunity to sit down with mr. dalio. did you address bridgewater, did you address the challenges of doing interest-rate parity strategy at zero bound? barry: that was one of the

questions i had about risk gold, specifically what should investors be doing as rates -- the 10 year is under 1% on the way to zero. what you do? his answer is as rates have fallen, you should be reducing the amount of bonds in his portfolio. if there is no yield, why bother . there is no capital gains possible. he is very aggressive about you want to see less and less bonds in a portfolio. tom: i am glad you went there. this is really germane, i am sure it is on your masters in business interview with ray dalio. if our listeners and viewers are told bonds are difficult, where'd you go to get the advantages of that fixed income coupon stream? barry: i have a slightly different answer than ray. for our clients, we are looking

at things like prefers. we've explored dividend strategies. it is the same risk as equities. it does not work. we have looked at a number of pole writing strategies, they just add risk and complexity and cost. that is the problem with those. they try to create a free lunch. the total debate is is this a free lunch. i look at those skeptical. the thing that is most in between stocks and bonds are the preferred. they have a couple of risk characteristics to them that make them unlike bonds. just look at how all of the preferreds traded in february and march of this year. they all took a 30% shellacking just the way equities did. the difference is they 90% recovered back to par for lack of a better word. still 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%

yield depending on the risk properties of each. here is the bottom line. yields are low. you have to accept that. the only way to get more yield is to take on more risk. that is the bottom line. lisa: this is the difficult thing when listening to ray dalio. philosophical themes about monetizing debt, about the widening wealth gap between the richest and the poorest individuals, both in america and globally.

are you saying it all comes down to investment strategy that looks like what everybody else is saying, which is go long risk and you will not get paid for it? barry: so far, people going long risk on the equity side have been getting paid for it. he is much more nuanced than that. when we started talking about the political and wealth gap and the disparities in power and the increasing concentration of wealth and how many people have not had the same equal opportunities to succeed, he thinks that is a drag on the economy, and he lays out a ton of compelling case that if the president is reelected, here are the areas that will do better, here is what you should expect to do poorly, and if the challenger wins, here is what we will see from that. you will probably see a lot more stimulus, a lot more infrastructure spending and green new deal and all of that stuff. one has a higher possibility of seeing yields and inflation pick up. they both are pretty big deficit spenders. the republican gets to say the democrat is a big spender. we see what happens with the deficit. the impact is not so much this is better than that. it is which sectors of the economy will thrive or do poorly

under each administration. it was pretty nuanced, and as always, ray is such a historian, he does these deep dives into 1000 years -- we've have not even gotten to china, the rise of a big power. instanceseen 17 such of a new power coming along in the last thousand years, and i believe 12 of those ended up in a shooting war, the rest of them were economic or currency wars. and i want to switch gears, that is over to the administering of small-cap and rollout away from big tech stocks. do you see evidence of that? are you on board the big rotation to small-cap? we have about 15 different opinions. jonathan: we have been what -- barry: we've been waiting for emerging markets, we've been waiting for small-cap to mean revert, we've been waiting for

value to mean revert. the combination of very low rates, and even if you're not in a lockdown, the work from home pandemic circumstances, they benefit bigger international companies that have the ability to tap the capital markets for equity or debt issuance. that tends to be the larger companies. the last time i looked at the top 10 stocks in the nasdaq and in the s&p 500, they were about 27% of the s&p 500. that is pretty close to an all-time high. they have since picked up since then. this is their environment. tell me when this environment changes and that is when you can expect to see some sort of a rotation. this could go on for another six months or a year for all we know. tom: barry ritholtz, thank you very much. with bloomberg wealth and his work for bloomberg opinion as well. culminating tonight in the

debate, david westin leading our coverage. kevin cirilli is in nashville as well. any other number of news stories. claims came in good with constructive revisions as well. a lot of that off of californians adjustment to catch disaster wenational have seen in this pandemic. there is another news item, i do not know what to make of it because i'm not expert on this, this is on the maxwell epstein release of court documents. this was widely anticipated for 9:00 this morning. the over 400 page document has been released to the public. that will be, for certain parts of the political-economic society, of great interest. we want to bring that information to you. in the markets we see futures, -7%. a remarkable stasis in yields with the euro 1.1829. stay with us through this

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jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. equity futures down eight. -.25%. we begin with the big issue. the stimulus roadshow continuing amid a never-ending rolling deadline. talks resuming today with nancy pelosi remaining cautiously optimistic. pelosi: i am pretty happy. i think we have the prospect of an agreement. some delay on the appropriations piece of it, but i think that will be resolved. optimistic, even mitch mcconnell says we do not want to do it before the election but let's keep working so we can do it after. we want it before. jonathan: chief of chaff mark meadows sounding less optimistic, telling democrats to make concessions of their own. >> the president is willing to lean int