>> good morning i am haidi. good morning. stimulus negotiators say that they are moving closer with nancy pelosi saying that they are just about there, despite some remaining differences. federal-aid will be a debate agenda as we had to trump-biden

round two. has admitted sachs its role, reaching multiple settlements. aery: let's get started with check of the markets. u.s. futures coming online slightly higher. this after we saw u.s. stocks gaining ground in the regular session. there was optimism for another round of stimulus ahead of the last presidential debate. , andht, banks rallied reached the highest since june energy shares rebounded with oil. we will check that shortly after. small caps also gained around. we could take a look at the dollar right there. we saw again in the first time in five sessions. check out oil right now. a flood at the moment at around $40 a barrel level.

, also the latest sign of opec-plus that they ford be restraining supply longer. we heard vladimir putin say that russia is able to put output further if needed. haidi: a thick a look at how we are setting up the asian session. there getting this out from u.s. election. greater volatility and portions playing out here. take a look at nikkei futures. modestly high. we are seeing a pretty negative start to the trading. we do have japanese cpi, singapore cpi do to as well. take a look at sydney, pretty flat. , this despite new zealand annual inflation coming in slowing to 1.4%.

potentially setting up for a quicker than expected dissent into negative rates. shery: president trump and joe biden prepared to state -- to face offer a second and final time. it will be in nashville, tennessee in a couple of hours with biden's camp saying that they are preparing for personal attacks. the former campaign managers on the line. great to have you on. we know that usually, there are three presidential debates. we did not get the last one with president trump backing out. how much is at stake in this final debate? there are different things at stake for each candidate. donald trump is behind and most of the polls and we obviously seen nationally behind. he has got to do something tonight to try to change voter'' minds. joe biden has the luxury because he is ahead in most of these

battleground states, if not all of them, that he is ready to make his final arguments. he wants to make the positive pitches as to why he is going to be president -- why he wants to be president. know that president is likely to make this second and final debate personal. is joe biden ready to face these questions about his son hunter and his role in business in china? donald started raising the hunter biden questions at the impeachment hearing a year and a half ago. this is in a new charge that he has made, but he has rolled it out because it errors the hepaign that he role -- that made against hillary clinton. those are reprised now, lock him up at his various rallies. the president will make a tough case against hunter biden and try to put it onto joe biden, but joe biden will be ready for it.

the president has telegraphed his punch on this. they know it is coming. if he does a good job, it will be good preparation. if he does not, most pundits will scratch his head and say, he knew it was coming, why did he not handle it better? it is not like something he does not know is coming. shery: who is left to convince? rick: the ones who are always left to convince. the only ones who are convince a bull have been the same voter group. that is republican women who voted for donald trump in 2016, but voted against republicans in the midterm elections, and those suburban women are still up for grabs. they are convinced so far according to the surveys that donald trump hasn't done anything to win back their support. the newest constituency is older americans over the age of 65 who voted for donald trump in 2016 for now saying to pollsters, i am reconsidering my vote.

donald trump did not do a good enough job on covid. that is personal to me and i am going to support biden because of it. we are hearing from pelosi about stimulus talks and pretty will wide gaps on either side. i am wondering, if it does get done before the election, who gets the biggest boost out of it? rick: i have to believe that president trump will make the most out of it. he is one who is supposed to be in charge of the economy. he needs the stimulus to continue the growth of the economy that we have seen throughout the last quarter of the covid. break -- of the covid period. issue where he ranks higher than joe biden does to voters. it would be a great boom to his support. and thethe nancy pelosi democrats also do a victory lap.

it will be the deal that they want, not the one that mitch mcconnell wanted. and helped much fewer constituencies. there will be a big push, but i believe that if they get a deal, president trump will make the most use of it. haidi: really appreciate your time. theributor going into presidential debate. we are just getting some lines from mark meadows saying that the president does have the leverage to get gop support of the stimulus bill, saying that democrats as well as gop committee chairs are taking a look at the language. nancy pelosi said earlier that they were getting closer. we will get more of the presidential debate live from nashville, tennessee, when we will be joined by the republican national committee chairwoman. special liveur

coverage of the presidential debate. 8:30 and if you're catching it out of hong kong. let's get the karina mitchell for the headlines. landmarke begin with a case. goldman sachs admitted its role in the biggest case in enforcement history. it will enter a guilty plea for the first time ever. spreadk says it helped $1.6 billion in illicit payments across malaysia and the middle east. $2.3 billion.ned now -- mount in the u.k. the news comes after bitter exchanges between the government and political leaders, accusing of doing little during the

pandemic, buying new restrictions. and threats to the economy were made, although covid-19 peaked in the third quarter. the governor says that the worst of the pandemic was after july and august. -- he doesgradual not see tourism in proving -- improving. the premise of talent has lifted the state of emergency in bangkok. protesters calling for his resignation. he said that he would take a first step to de-escalate the tension, although protest leaders said that they reject his offer and demand that he step down. thursday sound and formal demonstrations in the capital, although gatherings were reported across the country. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. still ahead, the outlook

for ages recovery -- asia's recovery. but first, market volatility ahead of the election. as we count down to the final presidential debate, this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: joining us now is the chief market strategist. ray to have you on. does this mean -- great to have you on. does this mean that most of the pop -- volatility, showing big futures coming down a little bit

especially as you take a look at the november futures right now, which is not the right chart. yeah, i believe that market participants are rightly out there trying to hedge our portfolios, adjusting for risk of the election, in my business, i can tell you the last 45 days have had a record amount of investors calling up with concerns about the selection. obviously there is a lot going on and a lot of noise around it.

you should stay cautious and not be cavalier. perspectives a long of those. historically speaking, when there is this much hedging going on into the event, typically it turns out to be not such an event. falls pretty quickly after the known effect -- known event. i think that has been gained pretty well here. are four different outcomes where i feel like a lot of market participants are looking at this being pre-binary, but history tells us that the markets will almost certainly go up regardless of who wins. do you position yourself to be ready to take advantage of that situation? brett: going back to your comment there. we could have a democratic

president with the senate holding -- i think what is not truly -- the democrat president and a senate. i think that is one that will create larger volatility versus the white house and the senate flipping, or vice versa. so if you do have that situation, which i think is probably the worst case scenario for policy paralysis going forward, right echo what would protect -- right? do you then see rotation back into safety? what is the best case scenario? likely, there will be short-term volatility in the month of november for a few situation ishe gained out.

market participants have already been positioning on both sides for outcomes. i think there will be rotation, but we do not believe this is an event where you should be going 100% cash if you are a long-term investor. shery: you have written your reviews and you are saying that you prefer latin america to asia , which is surprising since we asia,een investors prefer given the ongoing pandemic. why do you prefer latin america over asia in the economy? been: i think asia has performing well in the emerging-market side. we still do like asian markets. i feel that the opportunity with this dollar staying lower, probably trending lower seems to bed it

breaking down and trying to rally. but it looks like it is breaking down a little bit here. we will see in the upcoming weeks if that occurs. the dollaring at stabilizing if not trending down a little bit. we feel that that is good for latin american assets right there. we are playing that via indexes right now. ewing joining us, appreciate your time as always. goldman sachs admitting its role in the scandal, we have the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: goldman sachs has admitted its role and now facing fines for the scandal in the malaysian fund. illicit payments

in malaysia and the middle east. a blackeye is this for goldman sachs given that this is a long time coming? >> yes, but look at the backdrop. out on a decade-long -- more than $5 billion in fines. the first in history for any unit -- and even recouping millions from executives. that is unusual, but it shows

the gravity of the issue at heart here. -- the department of justice language, this is a document that goldman sachs lawyers have signed off. the kind of language used here, --y talk about how goldman

that this was never going to be an easy escape for the bank. as an investor, does this impact the outlook for goldman? >> when you look at the stock in new york today, it was up, it was up more than the broader index. analystsinvestors and had been expecting fines. the company was not going to take a guilty plea, which usually means that there would not be any crippling restrictions. so from an investor point of view, you expected this to be the case. you needed some sort of closure and you effectively got that today. he is our reporter in new

york. let's get the latest on the business flash headlines. after the world's largest casino operator has had its strongest month since the coronavirus struck. this month has been the first time since january that they gainseen -- there biggest since august 10. huawei has spent months -- to supply chinese carriers with a $170 billion rollout of 5g through next year. we were told about the output in late 2019, eventually shipping more than 2 million units ahead of the unit sanctioned cut off last month. aviation regulators in china

project that the return of the boeing is high on their agenda. we talked with partners in the u.s. and europe. there are three criteria that must be approved before china will let the plane fly again. aviation, third quarter felt like a low point and a new stimulus package will prevent pay cuts. we were told that he will not put a timeline on how long the company can wait for federal payroll support. >> we are definitely having a better october than we had in the third quarter. that is a welcome improvement. november in terms of the visibility that we have there, it looks like it will be better still. she was talking about the cash burn and that is now $12 million a day. i cannot believe i am celebrating that. at any event, it is definitely good progress. we are hoping for better

revenues in the fourth quarter and lower cost, so we should narrow our loss yet again in the fourth quarter and beyond that, who knows? the demand is difficult to predict in this environment. suggestions that it continues to get better. gotta reach heard community and then, i think we can hope for demand to reach more normal levels. we have a long way to go. >> great to be with you. thank you. i would love to talk about your people, you have supported your people throughout this crisis. you have indicated that you are not going to furlough anybody until the year end. what kind of revenue numbers do you need to see? what kind of demand do you need to see? what kind of government support do you need to see in order for that to continue into next year? >> promised our people that we would have no pay cuts, no

furloughs here in 2020, and i hope that we do not have either one of those. we can get the stimulus package passed and get the payroll support for our airline industry, we will not ask for any pay cut or furloughs. it is all about getting that stimulus passed and i agree with chairman powell and the fed -- the country needs this. we have a huge war on our hands and we just have to fight our way through this. absent that, we are way overstaffed. the cost of that over staffing is absolutely staggering. one way or another, we will have to work with our union so we can see how to mitigate that if we do not get the payroll support. obviously, payroll support would solve that. >> when you needed by? what is the timeline here? >> it is political.

>> wendy you need it? it?hen do you need >> it is a long game. the question is more. will we get the payroll support or not? if you judge that we will get it, and obviously we can be patient here because we have cash to fund our losses well beyond 2021. that is not the issue. the issue is wasting money and having to borrow more and more are ino fund losses that excess to what they could be. that is the challenge here and the judgment. i do not want to put our people through the agony of pay cuts and furloughs only to find that we are going to get the support and we could abandon those efforts so, that is the trick here. i believe we will get the stimulus. we are working hard to get -- to make that happen.

it makes it really hard to judge, which is why we have to plans.e contingency if we do not get this, we have to do every thing to cut our cost. st.

asia has moved into recovery and the third quarter. growth engines are not firing with the same power across countries. let's bring our global economics and policy editor kathleen hays and special guests, the acting

director, jonathan ostry. great to have you with us. what started with you, jonathan. the first narrative is with china's robust recovery. see theextent do we strength of china's recovery being able to lift growth across the country? >> thank you for having me on. china was the first to succumb to this pandemic. it dealt with the health consequences pretty vigorously in the first quarter. of a verytwo quarters strong growth, and the second and third quarter. those two quarters are helping the region, for sure. and helping the world. exports from china have been growing fast and particularly of medical equipment and home electronics, everything that we need during this pandemic, and for those of us who are working

from home. the half-life of that is pretty short. what we need in china to continue to be a leader for growth for the rest of their region is a handoff from public supported demand in china to private demand which is what we are assuming and our baseline for next year. that yours of risks listing, one of them is insurgents in the pandemic. broadly is the u.s.-china on all fronts. trade and technology. australia is a case in point, bearing the brunt of that. what does that mean for the region, if it is not going away? jonathan: it is a big risk. it looms very large. trade technology, finance, all geopolitics in general, one of the things that we have been very concerned about, is if this spins further out of control, and if there is a broad decoupling of technology hubs,

and not just the u.s. and china. but technology hubs across, that would have a chilling effect on the region, a further chilling effect to reduce trade and high-tech products. less efficient production structures in the economies of asia, and less knowledge diffusion. that is a problem. to speak to how this affects austria, -- how this affects australia, a lot of the trade between china and australia depends on final demand in china. it is not as this a lot of those goods are part of the supply chains that affect china and other countries in asia. china demand is growing at a healthy pace, i think to some degree australia and new zealand would be integrated. it is a big problem for the

world as a whole and for the region, these two political tensions and trade tensions. and we want to see all parties get back to getting try to support a rules-based multilateral system, which has served the world so well. how big is the problem of rising income and inequality? when you look at asia, and you look at countries there, how big of a worry is it for you, and for imf economists as you try to figure out what needs to be done next? jonathan: it is a huge word. basically, -- it is a huge worry. basically, asia had seen inequality rising in the years leading up to the pandemic. the pandemic is having a devastating effect on certain groups, on women, on youth, on informal workers. those with lows gills and those

at the bottom of the totem pole. those with low skills, informal workers. inequality is rising. we are seeing a lot of people slip into extreme poverty, in sub-saharan africa, and south asia. this is a problem, and it needs vigorously,with through targeted fiscal support, to reach those who are being adversely affected. it is within the reach of policymakers through targeted fiscal support to address this problem. there has been a lot of support, but there needs to be more. obviously, the kitchen sink has been the approach that a lot of governments have taken when it comes the fiscal and monetary policy support. worryingg just stop about the financial risks? there are conversations happening in the moment that

people are getting a lot of concern about debt inefficiency taking place in economies in the same way that we have seen trying to go through in the last three years. jonathan: there are two phases of this crisis. there is not a sharp dividing line. but one of the key messages that we feel is appropriate is that we not pull the plug on fiscal and monetary support before the recovery has a more solid legs and is more entrenched. itpull the plug prematurely, would actually be self-defeating and more costly and the long run, than keeping the support going. that does not mean that we do not have to worry about financial risks building up. shirley pockets of vulnerability -- there are shirley pockets of vulnerability, and authorities

need to be monitoring the very closely and be ready to tackle them at the appropriate time. we cannot lose sight of those risks. those are there. haidi: to what extent do you think the recovery that we have thenis going to be damaged if we have a later than expected rollout of a vaccine? jonathan: i want to be optimistic. i think that there is tremendous upside potential from early development and early distribution of the vaccine that is effective and that reaches broadly throughout the world, and that may require multilateral support. there is a lot of upside ,otential to be world economy from an early deployment that is broad and universal, reaching all countries and all groups within country. that is an upside and something that we have talked a lot about

in our flagship products. the downside indeed is start. -- the downside indeed is dark. this is a marathon and not a sprint. we may have to contend with second and third waves. we may have to make do with all of the social distancing and masks and all the measures that we have in place now, and we may have to keep those in place in the time during an absence of a vaccine and effective treatments. anchor: specifically for australia and new zealand, the imf report says that central banks have to maintain a lot of stimulus. when you discuss is, are you and your team in favor of negative rates? new zealand has left the door wide open. it could even happen in 2021. australia are bm may be a little less enthusiastic. looking at negative rates may be on the table. is this the right path for these countries? australia and new

zealand have been tremendously proactive right from the beginning when they saw what was coming. they took a whole variety of measures from reducing policy rates to buying up assets, yield curve control, term funding facilities, and in both countries, this full gamut of measures that have been deployed. i think both countries are very cognizant of the fact that output gaps are wide and are going to be persistent. inflation is going to be subdued for quite some time. we did not really get into the particular measures that will be most effective, country by country. this is something that we discussed with the authorities. there is room to do more in both countries, given the outlook for inflation. the details might be country specific, including negative rates in some cases. it is not something that we are pushing actively.

jonathan, great to have you. actingn ostry, imf director of the asia-pacific department. we will have more on the imf outlook. we will be joined by the japan mission chief. that is half past seven if you're watching from hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪

karina: this is "daybreak: australia." im karina mitchell with "first word" headlines. nancy pelosi says that they are

just about there with stimulus negotiations. tochin and posey are close negotiations. other key demands are still being discussed. harvard university has posted that revenue will likely fall for a second straight year. the ivy league school reported the first decline since the 1930's. the fallout from the coronavirus is driving this. education has been hard-hit by covid-19, with many schools forced to offer remote courses and reconfigured in person classes. is lebanese prime minister back in office, one year after quitting, amid nationwide protests and accosting economy. to agree how to lead lebanon out of a deep economic crisis.

critics say they are back to square one. sri lanka president has regained sweeping powers after government won a vote. it means that authority will be in the presidency at the expense of the prime minister. is acs say that this threat to the independence of the legislative process. across the flying pacific are on alert after the election of a volcano in russia's peninsula. local authorities have declared that the highest alert is the blackened smoke and ash nearly 10,000 meters into the sky. force planes to take alternative routes. the volcano also erected last year. erupted lasto also year. global news, 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. haidi. howi: let's take a look on we are setting up on this final friday trading session for the week. as they look at the u.s. futures as we get closer to the second and final presidential debate taking place this evening. we are expecting a pretty fractious discussion between joe biden and president trump, with president trump really expressing to attack this issue of joe biden and joe biden son. this taking a look at after investors are taking a glass half-full approach to be sentiment that perhaps we will get a pre-election stimulus. in this part of the world, we are seeing a little bit of a moderate upside when it comes to new zealand stocks. shery: you said it. it is all about the debate tonight. the stakes are unusually high as president trump and joe biden meet for the final debate in a couple of hours. our chief washington orthotic kevin cirilli is in nashville,

tennessee. he is with us. especially guest. kevin. >> showdown in nashville. garth brooks country. we are here with ron mcdonald. -- ronna mcdaniel. president trump is president trump. we want to talk about policy tonight. weis very important that differentiate that joe biden is going to raise taxes coming out of the pandemic, day one. he went to get rid of our independence and energy. president trump was a double down on the policies that are leading this pandemic. you see record low unemployment came's and a housing sale room. you see 11.4 million jobs already added. things are happening. we want to keep that going. kevin: is it a win for joe biden? biden actually has to answer a tough question

tonight from the moderator, that would be a win for the country. we should understand that if he is going to pack the supreme court, the commission answer was a nonanswer. kevin: you thinking he say yes or no? ronna: he does. it is fun to miss her. it would be up minting when our country is known for years. he needs to answer to the american people. i going to get rid of checks and balances. kevin: on the issue of china and u.s.-china, there are some parties in agreement. what contrast you hope that president trump makes with joe biden on china? ronna: joe biden has not been weak on china. i think that there are some things that need to be addressed with assad and these emails that the biden campaign has not refuted as true, about hunter biden working with russian.

we need to know this. is there corruption, we need to understand what happened. kevin: you know all about early voting. close to 40 million americans have already cast their ballot. i know that you are already very much in terms of the organizational effort, i concerned with the increase in male in voters? ronna: this is exactly what we saw in the special election. seen this on many of these specials, and republicans are more comfortable voting in person. we want republicans to vote early in person. already and states were early voting has started, republicans are taking the lead. kevin: early voting in florida is far out passing 360. explain this. ronna: we are ahead in early voting. we are starting to do the data about this. we feel really good at about the early voting. that has been our push. we switched from absentee

ballots and we are pushing early voting. we have the largest ground game of volunteers pushing our voters out to vote in person. kevin: yesterday i introduced -- i interviewed the chairman of the democratic party. he asked -- what keeps you up at night? xas?s? te ronna: i would say the battleground states. we are not going to know. there'll be nothing that was say definitively where the battle gain states will go. it is going to be our turnout operation. a lot of it is going to be in person, election date voting. kevin: how do you make sure that voter turnout? there is an unknown. take us behind the scenes in your operational ground game and how you are trying to turn out the vote to make those conservative districts bleed

blood red? ronna: touching voter in many different ways. not just tv. digital. mail. doorknobs. tv hass a stage where diminishing returns and you cannot do another mail piece. those door knocks are going to be critical with our customized data in turning out those local voters that may or may not vote. we need to get them to the polls on election day. kevin: it is kind every fishing -- it is kind of refreshing to hear the chair say that there are too many political ads. i never thought i would hear the on debate i. again, the debate tonight is time.:30 p.m. new york the stakes had never been higher. shery: a long night ahead of you. thank you ronna mcdaniel. snapshot ofme for a

reviews revolving around the u.s. election. now we have a call from morgan stanley mike wilson. he recommends buying stocks is a plunge on election fears and that there is a good chance that markets could drop before election. he thinks that investors have grown complacent about the political battle. he argues that in about of who wins the election, more economic stimulus is almost certain. at drive stocks higher. the september market pullback was accurately predicted. haidi: the second call that we of, have is from the head as i vote for clean energy. it will lead to a bigger push to a more sustainable investment. he thinks that biden would reverse some changes made by president trump, writing are short drilling. more meaningful impact on u.s. environmental policies.

this is your morning call. shery: let's turn to alibaba. business is expected to recover in the coming months, after disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. we heard from the ceo about how this year and the shopping bonanza could boost their gains. last year, we moved about 1.8 parcels in one week. we are seeing even bigger demand this year. oliverworking with parcels to be prepared. there is a new challenge, the growth rates, the total number , we arels is already expecting 30% additional growth. that is how we are thinking of. tom: the 30% increase, is that over the 11 days of the festival? >> it is year on year.

40% growth.g 50% to we are more than 60 million parcels per year. that is tremendous. tom: that brings me to my next question, to what extent and how has the pandemic and covid-19 impacted your business and the logistics industry more generally? >> the supply got interrupted because of the restriction movement of people. ,he workers in the warehouse definitely got impacted. we see all of the flights got canceled. we lost all most all of the cargo space. we lost a lot on the infrastructure. building the hubs. of flightsng a lot

to build the backbones. flights played a central role during the pandemic. tom: has the pandemic accelerated that digitization process? wan: definitely. hadre the pandemic, we around maybe 10, 25 chartered flights. since epidemic, we have accelerated the hub. added break routes between china and europe, china and latin america. you talk about having 200 additional flights. one question is, do you continue to see that kind of expansion of frates. or is this just pandemic related? pandemic related, but we continue to see the continued growth. neede realized that we

robust and reliable global supply chain create tom: do expect to be adding more freight routes? wan: definitely. i think were seeing early stages to building global info sector. tom: what are your priority markets? into russiaworking and europe and southeast asia. we are seeing a lot of opportunity and latin america, as well. flightswhy the charter into israel. dr., wen america, and add one into africa as well. relationschina how do plate to your strategies in the u.s.? wan: we see the business opportunities growing. we are focusing on trying to better service and better

value for our clients, in terms of the chinese merchant trying to sell in the states and as well for the global brands in the states. we are trying to get better solutions. tom: are you looking at additional acquisitions or investments? wan: we are looking at other countries, and what is driving those areas. those of the things that we have been looking at. ceoy: that was the network speaking exclusively to tom mackenzie. let's get you the quickest check of our latest business flash headlines this hour. haidi: there is a deal being worked out with boeing 737 max, as the airline is saying that southwest hasn't always had that fleet. other carriers of course have been hammered by the pandemic. to max is nearing return

service after two crashes grounded the fleet. many are in the market seeing it as a supply mood for next on. will join the --xon will join the it is 40% ain't-- electricproduce a new mini suv and china and so in europe. made andover will be is being billed as the cheapest -- as european carmakers scale up officer production. in the next hour, will be hearing from ranil salgado about the forecast of a recovery.

you do not want to miss our special live coverage of the presidential debate starting a little bit over 90 minutes of time. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we are counting down to the open. shery: i'm shery ahn. nancy pelosi is saying that they are just about there at the deal, despite remaining differences. federal aid will be on the debate agenda as we had to trump and biden,