weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. ♪ annmarie: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i am annmarie hordern. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." here is what you need to know. pres. trump: we are going to go boom if i am elected. if he is elected, the stock market will crash. >> next question. mr. biden: if anyone is responsible for not taking saying i takect, no responsibility initially,

anybody responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the united states of america. annmarie: the second presidential debate is heavy on policies like the coronavirus and policy, but will it make a difference to voters? we are 11 days away from the u.s. election. curfews have spread. governments deploy more restrictions as coronavirus cases search around the con -- continent.d the france approaches 40,000 new cases for the first time. barclays reports third-quarter results amid the pandemic today. investment banking revenue should offer reprieve. we will ask jes staley what is left for him to do at the bank. just gone 6:00 a.m. in the city of london. very good morning to you. if you are just looking up in tennessee, there was a much more composed and coherent debate, a contrast to the chaos that ensued in the prior one. the first topic was the coronavirus, which is once again

taking center stage in europe as well with cases soaring. that is the news. let's take a look at where we trade this friday morning. no massive moves in the market. investors are digesting the second debate, digesting the stimulus up in the air out of d.c. we are 11 days away from the u.s. election, but remember, votes already actually underweight. more than 40 million people have already voted in the election. 0.84%. year yield, curves are steepening. investors are men confident that stimulus is coming at some point . we have a slew of pmi data today. that will be crucial data we are going to want to watch. we also have numbers breaking right now from daimler. they see 2020 sales, unit sales revenue, significantly lower year on year. they see a significant increase fcfc.dustrial

and. 2020ebit at prior year level. we have daimler breaking results right now. later on, we are going to be speaking to the daimler cfo. you don't want to miss that conversation. now, the top stories today is the final presidential debate. it ended a few hours ago and the tone was much more civil than the previous event, with the candidates laying out different visions for how to respond to coronavirus, climate change. thank you so much. 1:00 a.m. in new york, so staying up late for us. this was far different than the first residential debate. the candidates actually debated in number of key issues. what were the highlights? >> of course, this debate was going to be different in that we had the introduction of a mute button so each candidate had two minutes of interrupted -- uninterrupted speaking time on each topic. this was much more dignified and

respectful, especially on the part of president trump, seems to recognize his aggressive performance in the first debate was not in his favor. he spent a good deal of time attacking biden, almost treating him like an incumbent. he also spent a lot of time coming after biden and his family, including on hunter biden on alleged payments to china and ukraine. as far as policy issues, the virus front and center. joe biden saying anybody hasonsible who has -- who overseen 220,000 american deaths does not deserve to be a rut -- to be reelected.

could be coming before the end of the. biden saying he would not support a ban on fracking, but he does want to see an oil transition. also the issues of race and immigration, specifically the separation of children from their families at the border. that could strike a chord with suburban women in particular, which is a key group that the president needs to win over if he wants to win reelection. annmarie: i did find the energy debate quite fascinating. we quickly moved from climate change renewables into crude. i want to ask you about the dynamics of this debate. already more than 48 million people have voted. does it actually change anything? >> that's the big question. is this now status quo? considering 50 million americans have already cast their vote. that is not a lot of minds left to change. joe biden had a commanding lead going into this debate, up about eight points and the national average of polling. also leading in ohio, michigan, pennsylvania, albeit by narrower margins. he really needed to win to change the dynamics of the race. that does not seem to be what the consensus outcome is. cnn did a poll of voters and 53%

of them said biden won. won.39% said trump the narrative seems to be that the narrative has not changed and that biden is still ahead in the race with 11 days to go. annmarie: yes, he is still ahead and 11 days to go. i wonder, given what is going on in the polls and 48 million people already voting, what message does biden need to drive home in the next 11 days versus the message trump needs to drive home in the next 11 days? as base is going to come out for him, but who is he going to really try to capture? who does he need to talk to in the next 11 days? >> one of the key groups is those suburban women. from the very beginning, everybody says this is where the race needs to be won. you could tell the president was trying to make an appeal to black voters, specifically black men. he came after biden for his support on the crime bill back in the 1990's and the incarceration of black americans.

you could tell he was trying to win over that group, as well as the latino vote, particularly in arizona, when it comes to the immigration issue in particular. we saw him trying to appeal to a number of different groups. did it really work? for biden, he tried to drive the message home that since the beginning of the race, since the dnc in his speech saying that he intends to be a president for all americans, a message of unity, regardless of party. annmarie: that last question was a very interesting one. who are youto win, going to be targeting on your inauguration speech? they both at the end came back to the economy. we will have more from her throughout programming. coming up, just about there. nancy pelosi says the stimulus deal is close, but this as trump and biden play the blame game for the stalemate in the final presidential debate. a re-. this ♪ is bloomberg. ♪ -- a recap next.

this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ annmarie: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." good morning. rdea's third quarter profits beat estimates. the bank has pledged as well to reinstate its dividend, setting a strong capital position. to discuss this all, we are joined by frank vang-jensen, president and group ceo of nordea. he joins me on the phone from helsinki. i want to start out with the dividend. unlike your peers elsewhere in the nordic region, you are directly supervised by the ecb, and you have to comply with this on dividends. you are saying you are ready to pay double dividends next year

if the ecb allows it? frank: yes, we are delivering very strong results for the quarter and delivering previously -- from previous quarters. we have a very strong financial position. surplus of 6.2. accruing for 20 dividend. we intend to pay out dividends, but of course, we have postponed the decision until the first of jan., and are waiting for more communication from the ecb. annmarie: do you think the dividend cause has been necessary -- pause the necessary -- has been necessary? do you think this was a necessary action from the ecb? frank: i don't want to speculate on that. -- we havetried t

tried to run the bank as best we can, helping customers, helping the society. so far, the economy very strongly to the crisis. obviously, still a way to go. strong.position is very and has just been normal for us to say that we also want to award are investors. we have accrued for that. clearly, we can pay out dividend. of course, we are following the guideline of the ecb. therefore, we have refrained from deciding about it before january 1. annmarie: you have also reversed this quarter, 2 million euros worth. can you tell us why that is? frank: we made a management -- in q2. we wanted to be prudent, transparent. at the same time, we guided the market for our projections for the full year, when most would be below one billion euro.

we basically covered north of that already q2. has zero in net loan losses. the totality, 2 million reversal actually for the quarter. so we have our buffers, management buffer intact, which of course is a strong start .4 q4. q4.oint for annmarie: do you think we will see more consolidation finally? what are you preparing for in the banking industry as a whole for europe? frank: i don't want to speculate on that. there, we just focus on development bank, helping our customers, taking responsibility in society and progress towards our financial targets. our strategy is to run the bank in the four nordic countries and

we are doing everything we can to execute that with good progress. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us on the phone from helsinki. that is frank vang-jensen, president and group ceo of nordea bank. they were out with earning results this morning. to the united states. house speaker nancy pelosi says she and steven mnuchin are "ju t aboutt there." dealis on a fresh stimulus but significant differences are still being negotiated. their economy was one of the issues president trump and joe biden focused on during their final debate. pres. trump: nancy pelosi does not want to approve it. i do. >> you are the president. pres. trump: but i still have to get -- mr. biden: the republican leader in the united states senate says he cannot paszek, he does not have republican votes. pres. trump: nancy pelosi does not want to approve anything because she would love to have some victories on a date, november 3. mr. biden: this heroes act has been sitting there, and look at

what's happening. ismarie: joining us now wouter sturkenboom, chief investment strategist at emea & assetnorthern trust management. i actually watched the debate, got up earlier. stimulus clearly one of the key focuses is for the financial markets. we have seen that with the steepening of the yield curve. do you think a stimulus deal will be an impetus to break the range we have seen in a treasury yields? investors are clearly pricing in more fiscal stimulus, but do you think that it can actually move out of that range bound we have seen? wouter: in the short-term, it is good. in the medium-term, we don't think so. we are very firmly -- firm believers that we are lower for longer and that the yield curve will stay in check. short-term,the markets might respond to

something close to true trillion trillion. $2 very soon the after, we would expect that to come back and. annmarie: the fed will prevent a serious break higher. since we did hear from both presidential candidates, i want to ask about the upcoming election. we are 11 days away. we are more than 49 million people have already voted in this election, even though the actual date of the election is just 11 days away. you are operating under democratic seat, according to your notes, with a few caveats. what are those caveats, and why do they matter to the market? wouter: when you look at u.s. elections, you always have to be aware of the intricacies of the system. because of the electoral college, and the swing states, of factorsination swing in trump's favor, you

could have an outcome with trump winning the election. that's the first caveat. secondly, more importantly is the senate. the senate is a much tighter race than the residential race. in that space, it's not only about who wins the majority, but how big is that majority? if it is not some big enough, some modern democratic senators --ld easily hold up the more part of the democratic agenda. those are the caveats to the democratic sweep scenario that we have thrown out there. and also, really make sure that our clients do not underestimate the impact of a democratic sweep either. annmarie: that's what i want to ask you. we see the treasury yields rising, the dollar weaker. all of this is on a blue sweep. what kind of hedge do you have to be taking out if this is not going to be a full-fledged blue sweep? wouter: that is incredibly difficult to do. first of all, we saw a lot of hedging take place in the run-up

three election, two to weeks ago where people were preparing for a contested election result. they were really worried about that. we have seen those hedges tail off and be taken out. if wehe question is, what do get this blue sweep? how big of that interest rate increase could we see? how much an impetus to growth and inflation would be? that's where we are telling our clients, take it easy, don't go overboard in your expectations. interest rates might increase a little bit. yes, it might have a bit of a boost to growth and inflation, but very quickly you will see that tail off as 2021 comes along and we expect those moves to come back and. the end result will be more modest than maybe what is currently being looked at from a market participant's perspective. annmarie: andrew sheets brought up an interesting point with the ferro.an

not all of the portfolio managers have moved all the money. 20, wheree point to the polls got it right for the popular vote but clearly not for the electoral college. has the money actually moved? are using the money move into what people are saying would be eight full biden sweep? or are people keeping money on the sidelines? wouter: i would expect the latter. i think the presidential outcome has been largely priced in. that gap seems to be pretty large depending on which source you look at. even with a polling error, even with swing states, it looks unlikely that that is going to change. the senate part is i think what people are still hedging their bets and that makes sense to us. we still think there is money on the sidelines with respect to that part. atn, when we sort of looked this a few months ago, and a lot of people were saying that a

split government outcome would be best for markets. we are certainly seeing that narrative change. people are looking for senate control, but modest senate by democratseats to get the stimulus through. trumpâe afraid if loses and the senate stays in republican hands kappa that the stimulus -- hands, that this timorous might not come at all. annmarie: if stimulus does not come, as some people are starting to recalibrate, i mean, what does that do for financial assets and the economy as a whole? wouter: clearly, that would very the yieldeepening of curve like we have seen. it would be something that will be reversed. and i think all those sort of growth sensitive stocks would suffer, because they would all of a sudden of revenue, a source really sustaining the american

people that would go away. that would be the biggest impact. from a global growth perspective, clearly it would be a negative as well. so, this is a downside risk. it looks like they are getting to a deal, probably after the election, but still, it is a downside risk that we need to take seriously. annmarie: wall street journal editorial board taking a contrarian view, saying the biggest risk is governors who are not open their states. wouter sturkenboom stays with us. he's from northern trust asset management. we thank him very much for his time. let's get you an update on first word news. governments around europe have been deployed curve is more widely as a second wave of coronavirus infections gains momentum paired france has told 46 million people to stay home after 9:00 p.m. after reporting more than 40,000 new daily cases for the first time. italy, germany, and at least eight other nations also saw a record infection rate. remdesivir has become the first

approval to treat covid-19. it had been already approved for emergency use and was used to treat president trump. it allows gilead to market the drug to doctors, nurses, and patients in the u.s. market. the u.k. has signed a trade deal with japan, its first with a major economy since brexit. the agreement largely preserves the terms under which the u.k. trade with tokyo as part of the eu. comes as the clock ticks down on bragg's efforts to reach an agreement with brussels by the end of the year -- brexit efforts to reach an agreement with brussels by the end of the. harvard university has posted a loss and said that revenue will probably fall for the second straight year. it is the first back-to-back drop for the school since 1930. measures including coronavirus tasting, tracing, and configuring classrooms and dorms has driven up the cost. coming up, goldman's record finds. the wall street lender ace is the biggest ever foreign bribery

penalty in the united states over their role in 1mdb. those details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

6:25 in the city of london. goldman sachs has admitted its role in the biggest form bribery case in u.s. history. it has reached several international settlements, paying more than $5 billion. it marks the end of probes into goldman's fundraising for the malaysian fund 1mdb. dani burger is here to digest it. $5 billion. how big of a deal is that figure? massive. fine is within that $5 billion, the u.s.

ingartment of justice fin $3.23 million -- billion dollars. it's really remarkable if you look at the other finds that have been even close to this size. not even in the top five will you find another bank. this is a very unique and large rebuke for goldman sachs. it has admitted its role in spreading about $1.6 billion of illicit payments across malaysia and the middle east. its malaysian unit has admitted guilt. very key, goldman as a parent company has not had to do that. that is important because they do have a lot of clients who would be barred from working with the firm should have any sort of criminal conviction. another important fact in this is goldman also clawing backpay from some top executives, including solomon and blankfein. that is significant because they have maintained it was just rogue actors. this is making the top

executives also have accountability here. annmarie: this has really painted a dark cloud for goldman. does this finally put the end of the 1mdb saga for the bank? fineswhen it comes to the themselves, that seems to be coming to an end. the acting in the u.s. said there was unprecedented coordination. what is going to be left in its wake is this reputational damage goldman is going to have to deal with. one of the more damming things to come out of these final settlements were court documents which detailed some of the communications between top executives. that included people talking about what was clearly a bribe that one abu dhabi executive was asking for. annmarie: dani burger, thank you so much. coming up, the gloves stay on. trump and biden in a far more toned down debate. much heavier and policy with 11 days to go and more than 49

million votes already cast. will it make a difference? this is bloomberg. ♪

>> good morning. it is six: 30 a.m. in the city of london. this is daybreak europe. >> they say the stock market will boom. if he is elected, the stock market will crash. >> anyone who is responsible for not taking control. i take noot saying responsibility initially. anybody responsible for that

many deaths should not remain president. residential debate is heavy on policies. will it make a difference to voters. we are 11 days away from the election in the u.s.. curfews spread. boyrnments in europe deploy restrictions as coronavirus cases surge. the french prime minister because the situation grave. reports third quarter results amid the pandemic. investment banking revenue should offer reprieves. we will ask what is left to do at the bank. you.y good morning to we have just wrapped up a few hours ago a debate in nashville tennessee. it was heavy in substance and policies, more so than the last one. this was a lot more composed and less so in terms of chaos.

the mute button, we did hear it come into effect a few times. theinvestors, not moving needle too much. flat across the board. asia-pacific, up 0.2%. investors wondering what is going on the stimulus. 11 days in the error. -- away. the 10 year yield, 0.8 4%. curves are steepening. investors remain certain regardless of where it comes, stimulus will come. pmi data out today. seen it diverge between the manufacturing and service sector. the final presidential debate is over, it was the last one to bid tone was more civil and it was heavier on policies like the coronavirus pandemic bid >> we

are learning to live with it. we cannot lock ourselves up in a basement like showed does. >> he says we are learning to live with it. people are learning to die with it. >> you said a vaccine will come in weeks. >> it is not a guarantee that it will be by the end of the year. >> anyone responsible for not taking control rate saying, i take no responsibility anyone -- initially. anyone like that should not remain president of the u.s. >> if you look at what has happened in new york, it is a ghost town. these are restaurants that are dying. bikes we ought to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. when they need resources to new >> discussing the coronavirus. agenda, climate change, north korea.

race in america. i am so excited you are here. i got up early to watch the debate. we can have this discussion following what we both have learned. theirected group updated results. 49 million americans have already cast ballots and we are 11 days out. president trump needed to make a dent. do you think he did that? workedtone of the debate in his fave here. -- favor. he was able to articulate traditional republican views. this voter base. we saw that around coronavirus and also climate change. let's say he gave himself the opportunity to reiterate what a traditional republican tradition would be -- position would be

which would help get out the voter base. undecided voters is small. with atake the polls grain of salt. the question was about the battleground states. given hillary clinton lost by a few thousand votes, even though polls pointed to her winning. what are you learning this time around? biden is certainly ahead in the national polls significantly. in the battleground states he is also ahead, especially where hillary lost. michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania but the lead is smaller. it is closer. we do need to be a little skeptical of polls.

electoral college outcome is harder to predict. there is a higher margin of error. you have a risk of leaving out key constituents. ever predict the full voter turnout. polls are more accurate. in part because taking into account the mistakes in 2016. biden has had a much more consistent lead both at the national level and in battleground states. ultimately, voter suppression efforts. we are in a pandemic, there are still questions. >> in the battleground states, specifically pennsylvania.

joe biden said during the debate he wants to move away from the oil industry, move into renewables. those kinds of comments, can that hurt him in a state like pennsylvania or texas? >> absolutely. he has been treading a general -- careful ground. comment aboutral transitioning. he has made a lot of effort to reassure people in pennsylvania they will keep jobs in cracking. -- fracking. he has done a lot of work to reassure that constituency. out in thet plays vote, let's see. >> u.s. agents issued another alert against malicious actors. coming from russia and iran.

do these statements hurt or help either candidates. this is very much your expertise. interfering in western elections is commonplace and we should expect it to take place we have seen them in the u.s., and italian elections, the brexit referendum. i don't think we should overestimate their impact on the outcome of elections unless it is very, very close. the real impact they have is they discredit the overall electoral system and sow mistrust. it creates doubt amongst voters about what is going to happen. necessarily to promote one candidate over the other. both biden and trump claimed putin was out to get them personally. discreditoal is to

and distract. it only goes so far. median people get it time. kims well as north korea's jong-un. if there is a contested election win, will this interference take on a new level of importance? time.saw it last democratic party has used interference to justify why they lost the election in 2016. it will likely be politicized problemsto justify that are domestic as well. >> thank you so much for joining us for this debate. the first,ined us at

more chaotic debate. coming up, the coronavirus continues to set groom records in the u.s.. in europe, we look at the economic impact next. this is bloomberg. ♪

is eating at home. we don't know what restaurants are going to do in the state of florida which is the largest consumer. >> guidance is about some degree of project ability of the direction. it is that intersection between what we are used to factoring in couldy is lockdowns that go and come back again. that is the biggest factor here. james quincy speaking with

guy johnson. the coronavirus continues to take groom records in the u.s.. illinois, ohio, utah, reporting daily records. record infections in france, italy, and germany. france reported more than 40,000 new cases for the first time thursday. and has expended a curfew beyond large cities. gavee's prime minister start comments on the situation. ahead will be tough. healthcare services are facing a tough challenge. the number of dead will increase. front, euroonomic area pmi's will provide a sense other contracting in the fourth

quarter is rising as the caseload of throughout europe. services coming out. orthey come in forecast worse, how much pressure does this put in the eu? does increase the pressure. there is a surge in new cases. the risk of a double-dip recession is rising. , economicns coming in behavior as well as the hit to confidence. for aore, the need foreign policy response is very needed. yes, they should respond. use them forcefully. lagarde said this at the g 30. mostaid it services the

job rich part of the economy. putting a greater share of the workforce at risk. recoveriesh finds can be slower. many say the ecb is going to have to act in december. is this the onus on them to push forward that action? possibly do something next week? stress through the pmi and other indicators. our baset make it case. be ecb does not tend to proactive, they are more reactive in general. i would look at december. these are uncertain times and things are happening fast. feelsld be the ecb pressure to act earlier. the real focus should be in the fiscal side. that is where the real support is coming through.

the physical side is where we are focused on more. think the resurgence of covid cases will have an impact? we are seeing it up in the air in the u.s.. what will the european response be? box europe has done a little better. there is not this cloud of uncertainty. they are negotiating how to deploy the recovery. the budget has not been great. those are areas that need to be sorted out as quickly as possible. national governments need to come out as well. overwhelming to the degree that it was. more from the for national level. see bond yields moving

intend him with treasury yields. bond market tohe rally? benefit from such a source of uncertainty. holdsk that trade still true. europe and the u.s. are seeing ng case numbers. in terms of the final bit of the european market, it is the periphery that could diverge. the spanish and italian funds we need to watch more closely. we will need to see that continue to do well to make sure the bond market stays fully functional. forward tobe looking those pmi's. thank you so much for joining us this morning. back into the u.s., less than

two weeks away from the u.s. election. record turnout, 49 million people have already cast their ballots. it has been far from a straightforward process. jennifer joins us from new york. what impact is early voting having on the race with a few days to go? >> even though the candidates , itmake closing arguments might not do much considering millions of americans have cast their ballots. beenllion ballots have cast by mail or in person voting. president intends to do that saturday, make his own in person vote in florida. ofionally, turnout is 35% total votes counted in the 2016 general election.

we are seeing record turnout in several battleground states. texas, north carolina. has a 140 2% which increase from the same time in 2016. as early voting has expanded, there have been more reports of people actually casting votes. long lines at polling stations. advocates say some of these issues are having an effect on lower income people. recent attempts to suppress their vote. >> what are some of these issues? can you dig deeper into some of what these early voters are experiencing? the long lines. we have seen people waiting up to 10 hours to cast votes. we saw long lines in places like

texas and illinois. there have been technical difficulties. many states, a lot of voter suppression tactics people say are still intact. defendseveral voters voter id laws. also reports of disinformation campaigns being used online to suppress the black vote. we were talking earlier about the black vote. presidentt night, obama did -- vice president biden and president obama -- trump making appeals. we have seen people get the black vote out and not be discouraged read what we are hearing is this ruling by the

supreme court back in 2013 may have opened the door to some of the voter suppression tactics we are seeing. there's a lot of concern about how this mode -- might affect the outcome of the race. people are still going and waiting in line. a lot to watch out for. >> 11 days to go. thank you so much. banks reportropean results, on deck next. this is bloomberg. ♪

withese 500 plus kids came parents. they separated them at the border. >> they did it, we change the

policy. they did it. we change the policy. who built the cages, joe? >> let's talk about what we are talking about. their kids were ripped from their arms and separated. the president of the united states in joe biden being asked about the child separation policy at the u.s. border. let's take a look at what you should be looking out for. 11:30 am, u.k. time. a press conference to follow 90 minutes later. policymakers staying on hold while sending a stronger signal of easing. manufacturing pmi, the expectation is 53.5 which is firmly in expansion territory read the bank of england kicking off an event in financial

stability. be looking out for that as well. a busy earnings day. let's focus on one of the stocks to watch. >> the bar has been set high. especially in the markets division. we are going to focus closely on barclays investment management and trading division. specifically, commentary on the u.k. economy. coronavirus cases picking up again. barclays is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries from the rebound and consumer spending. perhaps some questions about succession. one of the top shareholders has been pushing for the poster over -- the board says they are

behind jes staley and want him on for two more years. it will be interesting if analyst bring this up. >> anna edwards will be after barclays report results and that will happen in just a few minutes at 7:00 a.m. london time. i want to bring you some breaking news out of italy. national curfew if cases continue to rise. we will be keeping an ion that. we have seen a resurgence of cases. paris or rome or london. that does it for me. thank you so much for watching. anna edwards will take you through the european open next. equity futures to the upside. this is bloomberg. ♪

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