>> coming up on bloomberg best, the stories that shaped his misses around the world. >> thank you for having me today. >> this really builds a conglomerate.

francine: one week to go, biden picks up his campaign pace as the senate hands the supreme court judge confirmation to trump and republicans. syphilis -- nancy pelosi nancy pelosi and steve mnuchin failed to make a deal. and chief executive noah quinn cast credit losses. paybank aims to conservative diffidence. welcome to bloomberg surveillance. tom keene in new york, i'm french on the quad and london. that francine lacqua and london. we have hsbc, we talk about dividends. bp saying it will be a very volatile couple of quarters ahead. tom: the pandemic overlay was still ahead. that was the theme yesterday, far more than the election, it was certainly the talk of new york. every conversation was about a

reinventing of the pandemic. thee going to try to put nearlyhrough today, not as much damage as you would we are witht here futures up six. francine: and what is also significant is a lot of european countries, there seems to be a backlash against governments that are trying to put too many restrictions in the eyes of people that want to get back to work. we will have a look to that. let's get to bloomberg first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: amy-- new coney barrett has been sworn and as a justice of the supreme court. voted 52-48 to confirm her. chief justice john roberts will administer the second oath today at the court. her confirmation solidifies the 6-3 conservative majority.

the record can arrive bit more toward the goal of 170 billion dollars in u.s. imports. the demand a clear route out of locked down parts of northern britain that helped give him a majority in the last election, the lawmakers told boris johnson 's strategy of targeting local areas with restrictions with disproportionally damaging the economies of the northern region. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i ritikacountries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. off the carnage yesterday, let's recalibrate if we can. 32.53. up six, vix we went to the 30 level about 24 hours ago, and now another 2.5 big figures, 32.52. in the bond market, remarkable

yield,with a 10-year .80%. they move, but not all that much. -- brent, $40.72. other than to say turkish lira off the moving average study of the end of july of a 16% depreciation, age i norma's depreciation sets an important norma'sa joint depreciate -- an enormous depreciation. per dollar. francine: i'm looking at a lot of the earnings coming from european stocks, european stocks opening lower. investors are trying to way positive earnings reports. when you look at european leaders in european countries,

it looks like they are going toward more research and's or lockdowns. because we have bp, i also wanted to look at crude alleging higher to treasuries, german bunds much steadier. to talk about the markets and the way forward for the lockdown, joining us now is patrick armstrong, chief investment officer. thank you for joining us. what is the market looking at? are they worried about a double-dip recession because of these restrictions on the economy, or did they look at earnings and hope for the best when it comes to stimulus in the u.s.? uptick in think the the virus, it is looking much more likely that we are going to have soft forms of lockdowns, maybe not the full lockdowns that we had in the spring. it is hard to see how you avoid a double-dip reception in europe -- recession in europe. the services part of the economy is a big part of the economy

everywhere in the developed world, and the services have been hit hard. it is going that direction for several weeks, but will stay at home in the last few days. francine: every single european government says we will not go into a lockdown, and of course the options are narrowing and this is where we are headed. how can they mitigate it, and can we afford to mitigate it? wayick: i don't know which the political winds will blow. the strategy right now is that ie hospitals are filled and don't think they will deviate from it. in place tosigns slow the spread of it. it seems to be in europe that the strategy of lockdowns will be initiated if needed, and the hospitalizations seems to be moving in that direction.

tom: this is unfair a tuesday before an election. what percentage has corporations adapted to the pandemic? are they like three quarters of the way on to where they have to be, given a long pandemic, or is there a lot more adjustment and adaptation to go? ifrick: i don't know companies have adopted that much. i think the ones that have the winning business models have not needed to adapt and have been the winners of q1, so the health care companies are not impacted by this, the technology and the committee occasions are net beneficiaries from working at home, staying at home, various forms of electronic communication. those are the real winners. other companies, it has been subtle changes where they are trying to get through it rather than trying to create strategies where they can win. i think that is the playbook you have got to look for, the winners from q1 and q2 are probably going to win out if we have another lockdown for the remainder of this year. francine: joseph element -- reaffirmingfeldman

an outperform on amazon in this pandemic. his price target is 4000, and i will call that a 20% pop from here. joe feldman with an outperform on amazon. when you see that, patrick, there is an idea of rotation in the market. does the market leave big tex successes behind? tech is i think big cap where you want a portion of your capital right now. yields are even more expensive versus their history, so big cap tech is very expensive. i can see how they will grow their way into the multiples. we don't own amazon, but we do own alphabet, facebook, and apple. all of them expensive. all of them will grow their way into multiples. when they reach zero, i'm happy to have companies that reach winning business models. rather than the feeling companies that just see earnings

and business models destroyed by what's going on. francine: if you are a consumer company, you don't have very high multiples, but you're still selling toothpaste. what do you do with that industry? know if i don't toothpaste is impacted necessarily. -- high-end, luxury consumer i think that sector as a whole is performing very well. it is the services sector rather than the consumer goods that are really impacted. travel, leisure, movie theaters, things like that. there is just no answer to it. the services part of the economy is really in trouble, and i don't see a creek way out of it right now. -- a quick way out of it right now. tom: patrick armstrong with us today. with mr.ontinue armstrong. this is going to be interesting. talk about rip up the script. he is in the news, the chief

executive officer from indiana. that must mean eli lilly. david ricks will join us. that company decidedly in the news with a challenging antibody test. we will speak with him in the 7:00 hour. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

pres. trump: covid, covid, covid. that is all they talk about. what progress we have made on it, too. we understand it. we know we have to protect our seniors, especially where they have heart, diabetes problems,

and we are protecting them. we have the best testing in the world. that is why we have so many medications, because we do more testing than anybody else. excuse me -- here i am, right? biden: the bottom line is donald trump is the worst possible president, the worst possible person to try to lead us through this pandemic. has any idea he what to do, or he just doesn't care. battle, seven days on. we will see the festivities again today and on through the campaign picking up, no question about that. we are picking up our conversation with patrick armstrong, with plurimi wealth. we dovetail around the election, we can dovetail it to stimulus. i look very carefully today at the slope of the five-year, five-year breakevens. the guesstimate out five years of what inflation will look like

five years on from there, and it is amazing the inflation distinction, the upward vector of the united states versus everyone else. how do you play that discrete separation, inflation guesstimates in the u.s., disinflation guesstimates everywhere else? u.k. being thehe other notable exception, we have high inflation in this country as well. for me, i'm surprised gold has not been rallying over the last month. tod got up to 2000, fell off 1900. i think that is your natural inflation hedge, and if we do see inflation coming into the system, we will see a massive amount of people wanting to hedge inflation. there will be a significant amount of demand for gold as well. treasuries as well, to traditional traders, which is in the negative real yield. that is a hedge from outside moves. tom: first time i'm looking at

it today at -.93%. low, never dave -- -.01. could we go to an ever larger negative on an adjusted yield? patrick: i think eventually the fed will engineer the beginnings of inflation, and if you do see the 10 year yield start to move higher, which naturally it should, i think that is the point the fed changed its strategy, talking more aggressively about how we might move into -- to implementing that. that is the recipe of how you get very high negative real yields, very low negative real yields, i suppose would be the way to put it. francine: where do you see inflation first? would we be importing inflation from china, or would that be homegrown? friedman said, it is always a monetary phenomenon.

m2 growth is running at 24% over the last year. the money supply, the velocity is very low. unlock themething to velocity of money supply. you need the fiscal stimulus to take over from the monetary stimulus. qe is creating asset price inflation. money,s so much liquidity is abundant. in the hands of people buying assets. you have to get money in the hands of people who buy goods, and with a weaker dollar yield, you will start to see some inflation eventually. ,rancine: what is eventually like 18 months, 24? could it be longer? deflation is overwhelming anything on the side of the monetary things. target,ed meets its 2% -- i think in the next 12 to 18 months, i don't see any meaningful inflation anywhere

near the fed's target. by the time to get out to two years, the five-year, inflation i think is the net result of the policies and debt being put in place. francine: thank you so much, patrick armstrong, chief investor at plurimi wealth. he stays with us, and we will talk about the german bunds and some of the things we are seeing on fixed income in europe. coming, jeff currie, goldman sachs, global head of commodities research. that is 10:30 a.m. in new york, 2:30 p.m. in london. seven days away from the u.s. election, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> facebook, google, twitter, and tiktok are bracing for a night of election chaos. the worry is that once polls close november 3, the results will be delayed or unclear, providing the opportunity for the spread of incomplete or inaccurate information online, even from the candidates themselves. facebook may have the biggest job. ceo mark zuckerberg told axios in september he is even worried about potential violence. risk there is a heightened of civil unrest in the period between voting and a result being called or after that. stop candidates

themselves from promoting misleading or false claims. posts thatll remove it equates to voter intimidation. be directed to trusted verified sources with information. and it has already banned new campaign ads dodging a week before election day. twitter will do something similar for its 36 million u.s. users, with an election hub, like facebook, may remove all election posts that say the results were rigged. on youtube, the company bends videos that are doctored come inside violence, or mislead -- incite violence, or mislead viewers about voting. the company has not said how it will treat claims about election results from candidates. launched anktok has in-app guide to connect

arrogance with -- connect americans with trusted sources information, and it is not accept paid political ads. some of the company's have already come under fire for the way they combat misinformation. the ceos of facebook and twitter -- with hundreds of millions of americans on social media, the company faces a race against time to act on posts that could spread full's information. for example, in president trump tweeted october 6 that covid-19 was no worse than the flu, it was shared more than 43,000 times. it was put behind a warning label. by the time companies act, the damage may have overly been done. ed ludlow, bloomberg news, san francisco. tom: edward ludlow with a very important report. our best and brightest on supreme court, greg restore out

with an article this morning. -- gregorygory store store out with an article this money. can they do the voting, and if they get the ballot out after the election, candid be counted? the supreme court said it cannot. it was a 5-3 decision. the point here emma for international audience, is the battle over when a mail-in state-by-state warfare. that is the key message. clearly the report -- the supreme court sides with the republicans. francine: it is amazing that you still have these state laws, just like if the election were to be contested, it is up to each state law to come in place. 65 million people have already cast a vote, which i think is a record that we have had so far, tom. tom: no question that we burst through that. there are really good charts

showing the percentage dynamics seven days from the election. ed ludlow's good work, the social media debate is front and center as well. what is important is it seems each social media is different. in its interpretation. francine: of course, but also because it reaches a different audience. it is up to each social media given the amount of scrutiny, who they reach and how they influence. let's get straight to the data. i don't know if you want to take it or if i should start. basically we just had quite a lot of earnings, and if you look at the industry, it is an industry by industry look. some at hsbc, that are than expected. others not so well. we are seeing fluctuation on u.s. futures, european stocks down, also looking at crude oil a little bit higher. treasuries and european bunds steady. tom was focused on turkish lira. we will get to that in a second. tom: 8.16 on the wreck,

dramatically weaker in the last few days. coming up come on cap gemini. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

♪ tom, shares of -- are rising as the firm reports third-quarter revenue that beat estimates. following -- disappointing results from sap. joining us from paris, the chief financial --, thank you for joining us. i want to get onto your earnings in a second. first, is there fallout from what we heard from sap that would impact --? yesterday was pretty ugly for stocks in your industry. were quite surprised about the devolution of our own stock prices.

dependency on sap implementation projects this quite slow, it is a single digit number in terms of weight in renews. when we look at our site, the traction is there for now. as you know, one of the attractions for growth for us is cloud, digital and cloud. in termsee on our side of revenues. francine: what did you learn from the selloff yesterday? linked, or does it have something to do with investors? the -- was appropriate. if you look at our results, q3

results were solid. we achieved 4 million euro revenue, an 18% growth. of organic evolution, it is a very contained and limited decline of frequencies, -7.7% netares to a recovery. a clear recovery in q3 slightly above what we expected. and across all dimensions. and business lines. that is important to us. to you.d morning i am fascinated with the cloud is in the servitude of revenue growth is in the cloud five years on. in united states, we have a train wreck known as international business machines. into twoattering apart pieces, trying to adapt to this

world. amazon and microsoft keep going on and on. what is going to be your value adds to sustain that high double-digit revenue growth? >> is a matter of fact, cloud is important element. when we said digital and cloud is the core element of our almost 10%, quarter quite significant. cloud is an important complement. if you look at the traction of the business, we have three main up by 15%. have gone the traction is there. , theove to cloud transformation of our client's environments from legacy to cloud is strong traction. francine: what happens in 2021?

there are a number of uncertainties including lockdowns, how we work going forward, but what is your central expectation for the first half of next year? everybody, we need to be cautious given the context. we see the group coming back to organic growth's somewhere into next year. ambitions for 2021, of course, the recovery and the slope of recovery will be different when it comes to some sectors, some geographies that all in all, because we are diversifying it all dimensions, sectors and business line, we are confident to come back to growth next year. francine: thank you so much. carole ferrand, chief financial at capgemini. we had a number of earnings that

beat us, and others that did less well. let's get to the first world news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: a big win for president trump. the senate confirmation of amy coney barrett to be the newest justice on the supreme court, that solidifies a six-three conservative majority. they may be asked to weigh in on cases that could determine the outcomes of a close election. an elinical trial of lilly antibody therapy won't resume, researchers concluded. the drug probably wouldn't help hospitalizeds patient with advanced cases. the labor union is suing president trump over an executive order that makes it easier to hire federal workers involved in policymaking. the treasury employees union

represents 150,000 federal workers. critics say the order is a way for the president to require political loyalty from civil service workers. the trump administration has taken another step certain to make china angry. the state department has signaled its approval for a potential $2.4 billion sale of -- to taiwan. china and the u.s. are already at odds. beijing imposed unspecified sanctions on boeing. lockheed martin and raytheon because of a previously announced arms sales to taiwan. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. , this iska gupta bloomberg. tom: back to politics. veryew goodwin is interested in politics and international relations. we have a few things to talk about, to say the least. futures up seven.

stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning everyone. "bloomberg surveillance," looking down at the terminal showing the futures up nine. dollar flat for the challenges we saw. yesterday's yield, 10.8%. , professor ofn politics and international relations at the university of kent is granular about this, with a great historic template as well.

to get a broader scale. i put up a banner that said 1799-1800-1824 and now 2020. this is from a brilliant legal mind in washington, william and lee in virginia. nation,istory of the aren't we supposed to have close elections? matthew: absolutely. a closethis one is election as well. one historical comparison we are 2016, that ofs course really came from nowhere, but here's one suggestion. maybe the comparison actually is 2016, maybecking the comparison actually is what islands -- lee's these islands in the u.k. and 2019.

all of the data points we had was that boris johnson was going to win big. we refused to believe them because we were haunted by the memories of 2016 brexit. all of the data points were pointing in one direction. if you look at the data points in the u.s. at the moment, the opinion polls, they are all pointing in one direction but we do not want to believe them because of those historical nervous around 2016. tom: what is the middle ground? .here's very few undecided in your research, is it a surprise there are so few undecideds? matthew: i do not think that is surprising. have seenen men -- we american politics become more polarized in people making decisions not because of things like their income, but their values and identities, we have pushed people into these political camps. if you look at where republicans

are lining up and democrats are lining up, there are very few undecideds. the million dollar question is whether we do have this shy trump a fact that some have pointed to in the polls. francine: that is exactly what i was going to ask. we saw a similar phenomenon with silvio berlusconi and the second election he won, because he was such a device of figure people were ashamed of saying they would vote for him. but, they ended up doing it. the polls we are looking at trump -- a shy trump voter. matthew: we have seen changes in some folks are losing sight. the wayve changed in they take into account education and geography. what they are trying to do is listen a little bit more to those non-university educated, rural voters that tend to lean more towards trump. he has still got every chance,

even though biden is averaging an eight point lead national league -- national lead. in political science, we had a forecast come out yesterday, we had five forecasts say biden is on course, two said trump. happene: what needs to from now until next monday for those polls to change? is there just not enough time for president trump to reverse this? matthew: as of now, it is sad to say that this is biden's. betting markets have biden up, he is around 67%. i think it is effectively too late for trump to turn around the polls, but that does not mean he can't win. what he is relying on is polling error and there would have to be significant polling error if we were to wake up with trump 2.0.

it is not completely impossible, it is just something i think it is beyond what we are seeing in the polls. a bidenwe get presidency and if we get a republican senate, is it a different republican senate than what we have seen in the last four years? matthew: from the perspective of where i am in london, that is a bit of a nightmare for us. we are looking at this outcome as providing clarity on brexit negotiations, free trade between the u.k. and the u.s. there are a lot of things we would want with the democratic president and republican senator. uswant a clear outcome for as we try to figure out how global britain is over boris johnson that we can sign that agreement. there are a lot of nerves in london this week about the fact that biden is looking like he is coming in because they do view

biden as being anti-brexit. britain'sting decision as trump was. there are maneuverings going on in the background as numbers ride -- rise in the biden campaign. francine: i have a poll done by rest mucin -- rest mucin. matthew, i wanted to ask you more about brexit. no matter what happens, deal or no deal come january, will the eu continue to be talked about in u.k. politics for years to come no matter the outcome? >> i think we are going to be in an awkward relationship, like ex we wants to talk to.

the primary challenge facing the u.k. is to go on and forge trade agreements with non-eu partners this is the first time in the history of the organization that a major power has voluntarily decided to leave. the european union has huge challenges between north and south. vacuum ofas a leadership. angela merkel is about to depart from center stage. there are massive questions over the eu. i think they will move increasingly in different directions. presidency may lineup more neatly alongside the u.k.. this election really does matter for those of us across the pond. tom: thank you so much. we've got much more here on the markets with recovery. futures up five. politics as well.

lester munson. did your group. we will do that. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we will make an evaluation in the back end of this year on the economic outlook. our regulators in due course. i think the market should expect us to start very conservatively. by far the outcome of the biggest risk we are facing at the moment is the impact of covid-19 and the shift in the global environment to near global -- near zero global interest rates. voices on banking and the mystery of the accounting of hsbc. right now, the smartest guy on the block, jonathan tice, writes blistering and comprehensible for bloomberg intelligence. if you need to clear the mined, read one of his notes early in the morning. it is extraordinary how he can

explain 47 ways to measure loss quickly. jonathan tice joins us from bloomberg intelligence. your notes show the complexity of measuring, taking a loss, giving back a loss when loss doesn't happen. provide clarity. it is hsbc profitable? jonathan: yes. this morning from is that it's profitability is -- in terms of -- the main bits of good news for one, they give us a range, $13 billion in provisions for this year. -- therehed it with are concerns for this year. costs, they have also said we acknowledge that $4.5 billion a year of cost savings is not enough, we are going to

move that higher. that is why you're getting stronger election. need to movec costs on the employee margin, cutting employees, or do they need to jettison businesses? jonathan: they are reallocating a lot of capital. they are shifting towards asia. 35,000 headcount, that will ultimately go up because of digital banking. expenses they could have cut dramatically already. cut dramatically already. we still look at u.s. retail and question why on earth it is part of the group. in the full year, we are going to get a new set of strategic targets and outdated -- updated strategies. they are going to be more aggressive on cost. i think they may be more aggressive on some other restructuring as well. francine: how do they adapt to this protracted low rate environment? with brexit on the horizon and u.s. trade? jonathan: fair question.

upis one that they addressed front in the presentation. they set our interest rates have fallen because we are shifting away from interest rate top product. it is wealth management. it is non-lending parts of the business. there is no way to escape the low rate environment and it will take them several years to reposition. bear in mind that asian bacon -- asian banking is more enforceable. there pivot to asia is addressing the problem. metrics we have serious and pressure but it will begin to stabilize. revenue will probably improve as well which is the main point of our focus on hsbc. there is a lot of bad news on the price. they have almost given good news earlier than expected. francine: breaking news out of chinese yuan has

been strengthening. there were night -- there were a number of stories pointing to the fact that china was trying to push rename be to become a currency. what is the difference between hsbc and china? given the protests we have seen, does hsbc provide that? china was a massive part of their expansion plan. they have been stuck right in the middle of. if we get a biden victory in some of that pressure eases, the pressure of hsbc and china should also dissipate. -- in the world that is more stuck between the trade war raging between the u.s. and china. at hsbc and the

story of it all. at the end of the day, they have to compete against other banks. there is mystery to that. who are they competing against? standard chartered? is it a more broader set of banks? jonathan: if you asked them, they would say to j.p. morgan and citigroup. hsbc has by far the biggest market share. be global trade it would standard chartered. the 50 group and the u.k., lloyds and mount west. you have to look at which region new art talking about. they are pulling out of france. u.k. global trade bank and asia. thiswe could go on with all day. we will continue this discussion. -- mr. tyce. higher,tility with vix

32.67% today. and you just want to find a --, but we will have to see. francine: this election and also brexit may move the u.k. into different territories. there is a lot going on. a lot of stocks are down today not only because of earnings that were disappointing, but weause hopes have faded will get stimulus before the election. we are seven days away from that important election. tom: we will have david rosenberg with us. rosenberg research is slicing and dicing inflation. -- howosenberg on how we he melds his economic view into two america's. david rosenberg will join us. this is bloomberg. good morning.

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♪ tom: this morning, oh the humanity. s&p 500 down 5%. nasdaq 100, 8% down. all of that back to valentine's day, pre-pandemic. the 10 year yield. we consider a post-inauguration stock market. seven days in may. what will postelection stimulus look like? seven days to the election, what are trump and biden doing today to win next tuesday? then there were nine. amy coney barrett replaces ruth bader ginsburg.

good morning everyone. all revved up seven days out, lots to talk about. a lot in the united kingdom as well. me itorry, francine, to is the pandemic and the way they are working with that. francine: it is the u.k., germany, france, italy. if you are a european politician then you have promised for four months you are not going