is elected. i think the market is headed higher into next year. >> we could be in for a prolonged correction. >> the service is part of the economy is really in trouble. bankat we need is central stability in financial markets. >> it is clear we are going to see downward revisions in many businesses. the question is how strong they are. >> it looks like we are headed towards a double-dip. i think that is extremely likely in the u.s. -- in europe. in the u.s. we might still have a fighting chance. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures bouncing back. it is a muted bounce after the last 24 hours. risk aversion starting to come back through. tom: in the last hour, we have

seen the abend flow. flow.ched -- the ebb and we are right now on this radio and tv simulcast in a major state of flux in terms of market dynamics. jonathan: in detention in europe continues to build. the lockdowns, if we can call them that, in the last 24 hours, versions of them in france and germany. and then the news out of nice, france, investigating a knife attack. i want to avoid speculation and stick with the facts. we are learning very little about what has happened in the last couple of hours. tom: it is an overlay on the pandemic. we just spoke with nicholas finn . , thee continent of europe boat capsizing on the english channel a day ago.

immigration is different over there. the social tensions are different than america, aren't they? jonathan: it is, but the social tensions in france are very unique at the moment around islamic terrorism and the weekly satirical nasa getting -- weekly hebdocal cartoon charlie has produced. we have seen this far too many times, and unfortunately we are getting another version of it. tom: i believe the mayor of paris spoke moments ago. certainly, the nation awaits mr. macron in some sort of strategy. jonathan: no doubt ritika gupta will get you up to speed on the first word news a little later on. i want to stay on top of the market action of the last 24 hours. absolutely remarkable to see what is happened with the equity market. to thewake-up call potential of a double-dip. lisa: it really had to do with

the idea of renewed shutdowns. you pointed out earlier this morning, oil is breaking down to the lowest level since june. this has also to do with china, saying it will reduce its emissions longer-term. today, a huge data dump on a number of fronts. 8:30 a.m., we've cut u.s. third-quarter gdp. we will talk about how it shouldn't be annualized. it will be a huge rebound, yet we are still on track for the biggest yearly contraction since the great depression. we are also going to be getting initial jobless claims. the un-limit backdrop fueling some of the tensions you were talking about -- the unemployment backdrop fueling some of the tensions he were talking about. ecb president christine lagarde talking about possible additional measures. a real focus on what more they will be willing to do, given the fact there are renewed shutdowns. what will they be willing to do, especially with people looking at this as a fiscal issue, no longer a monetary issue?

got tech session, we earnings. it will be a read on how the economy is doing for the likes of facebook and twitter. with amazon, the question is margins. they will be spending so much money to keep their business going in such an uncertain climate. jonathan: lisa, thank you. what a busy afternoon coming up stateside. huge amount of earnings coming up. s&p 500 futures up 20, 0.6%. news a few hours ago in europe, lvmh and tiffany have agreed to $131.5 billion. we will talk about that one a little bit later. $1.1719.ar, interesting to see what is happening in foreign-exchange over the last couple of hours.

dollar strength is this session has grown older. euro-dollar just south of $1.1720. tom: i am bringing up again here -- bringing up yen here. we are not yet to a 103 handle. it does show some of the tension. i am going to call it a modest flight to quality. look at oil. what is oil pricing in? jonathan: saw that in brent and wti. equities in europe just haven't generated a bounce this morning. the dax up by about 0.3%. the ftse up by about 0.3%. start, weally ugly just haven't seen that enthusiasm this morning in europe. nice what mr.n macron will say, and in frankfurt, what will christine lagarde say about these many distractions? jonathan: huge amount of

pressure. typically what the ecb likes to do is produce something new when they produce the new forecast. new forecasts don't come until december. i think it is inevitable those have to be downgraded. it is up to the ecb whether they want to get in front of that. most people will tell you know. i think there is still huge pressure on president lagarde to make sure financial conditions in europe stay loose as we enter a really tough path of q4. tom: why don't we bring in evan brown here? he's been patient with this terrific newsletter. jonathan: very patient. evan brown, ubs asset management head of multi-asset strategy. great to catch up with you. do you think the risk-reward in european equities is starting to skew a little bit more towards reward, given the selloff? evan: i do think so, yes. there is no question that europe is facing a lot of headwinds. we are repricing the growth outlook, and that is problematic. at the same time, when we look

out, i think what we are going to see is positive vaccine news coming soon. all of the news right now is on targeted restrictions, lockdowns, but ultimately, these -- i week or two from now, i would expect that case growth which is surging right now starts to stabilize. we have seen behavioral changes. people wear masks. not havingfocused on these super spread events. that moves down the caseload, and that is typically when markets start to rebound. they see the light at the end of the tunnel. i do think we are approaching a buying opportunity. tom: the happy talk here is stochastic, which is greek talk for pointy. we had pulled back here that have been pointy. i am not going to get out the dates right now. every time we go down, we come

right back. does this downdraft indicate the same type of treatment? evan: i think so. right now, we are kind of in this air pocket in the fourth quarter, where we know the news on covid is not great. we know we are going to have to wait a bit for u.s. fiscal policy. we know we are not actually getting the vaccines for a while. intowe have to go through a brighter first half of 2021 is kind of a softer fourth quarter. it is really the ability of the market do not so much fully look through, but a knowledge the weakness right now, knowing there are better days ahead. the market is forward-looking, so i would suspect the repricing we are seeing right now is a reaction to what was going to be a weaker fourth quarter, but very soon the market will look forward to better days ahead. lisa: what would you have to see to rethink your position that

brighter days will be ahead for markets, not just the economy? evan: a few things we are looking at. clearly in europe, we want to see caseloads stabilize. we want to make sure that this is following the playbook of what is happening in other countries. if this because of the weather, or other reasons that cases continue to surging europe -- to surge in europe? we are watching credit very closely. there's this kind of air pocket. it is really unfortunate that we didn't get pre-election fiscal stimulus. it is really important that we can't really count on anything in the lame-duck session. ifcredit will really tell us companies are going to be able to make it through and avoid defaults, and if consumers are going to be able to adjust, they will have enough saving that they are able to spend in the fourth quarter. we are watching financial market indicators and the coronavirus data.

jonathan: arguably the pressure point for the federal reserve as well. not at that point yet where the fed is going to be too concerned. what i think is interesting is not just the news alone, but how the market responds to the news. tech the worst hit sector in yesterday's session. what did that tell you? evan: that was quite interesting because you would think the narrative is that coronavirus concerns are driving everything, but if that was the case, you would expect that tech would hold up reasonably well relative to value or more cyclical sectors, but the nasdaq was the worst performing u.s. index yesterday. that was a bit puzzling. i think what may be happening here is this underlying, we have an election in a few days. we have the most lightly out plum that's the most likely -- the most lightly outcome is a

blue wave, with an outcome that less favorable to big tech. it is going to stress the longer duration growth plays. you've got tax increases which are disparate fortunately going to hit technology, health care and the like. thatnk there is still underlying anticipation where people don't want to be too overweight tech head of that potential outcome. jonathan: come back soon. evan brown thereof ubs. want to bring you some news from united airlines very quickly. how do you live with covid-19? the corporations in the airline business are trying to lead the way. ,nited plans to offer newark london testing from november 16 to november 11, and they are hoping that they establish this and it works well, and should

lead the way to ease quarantine rules. this corridor is super important for these airlines. the airlines are trying to do something about it. tom: we are not making light of anything we are seeing today with the pandemic and the sadness in nice, but you could call this the ferro plan. deal, andreally big to me, it is a simple solution. that is what i don't understand. jonathan: i've clearly got skin in the game, and i hope this happens, but i think for the airlines, they don't want to get bailed out. want to operate again, and this could be a big part of that. much more still to come on this program. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. up, michael collins, pgim senior portfolio manager. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. authorities in nice, france are calling it a suspected terror attack. three people were killed in a stabbing at a church. police wounded the attacker while arresting him. he is now at a hospital. france is on high alert right now for islamic extremist violence read last month, a terrorism trial began in the 2015 killings at the satirical newspaper "charlie hebdo" and supermarket. hurricane zeta has weakened to a tropical storm. it battered new orleans and left president to declare an emergency for mississippi. it was the fifth hurricane or tropical storm to hit louisiana this year. lvmh has agreed to by tiffany at a reduced price of almost $16 billion. the conglomerate will get a discount from the original price. the agreement ends a year-long

long saga involving a war of words, government intervention, and a lawsuit in the u.s. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: the governor did a good job. i don't know if you appreciate it, but he did a good job. you had a spike, and he did what he had to do, and your state is

fully open. mr. biden: we've lost more than 220,000 lives to this virus already. this administration has given up. inathan: trump at a rally arizona, and biden in delaware, with just five days to go until the election wrapped up. let's get back to the thursday morning price action. it shapes up as follows. tuesday, wednesday, rough in europe. euro-dollar just about holding .nto a $1.17 handle the bond market unmoved. we can talk about that with our market purchase of its on this program a little bit later. 0.77% is your yield on your 10 year. i think the key comes a little bit later after the close. lisa pointed out, big tech reporting. alphabet, facebook, amazon, apple, all at once after the close. tom: oil near a $35 handle. i am watching yen.

stronger yen would be important. we are watching the flow of france and nice. on washington and an election, kevin cirilli is our chief washington correspondent. the numbers of rising cases, infections of the pandemic, and state-by-state, it doesn't even matter what the name of the state is, the answer is these are not good double-digit case growth numbers. how do these two candidates deal with the gamma, the acceleration of cases this morning? kevin: yesterday when i was speaking to sources on the president's reelection campaign, what they told me is there is an understanding that one of the hurdles they have not been able to clear was this notion from democrats that the pandemic cases in the united states is a unique situation. look at europe, what is happening in germany, what is happening in france, were you have upticks in cases.

restaurants and bars are having to close as a result of this. the virus from a western hemisphere perspective has had a somewhat similar response throughout europe, as well as the united states. republicans have failed to clearly articulate that message on the campaign trail. what would mr. biden do different the first day after that inauguration? for that matter, after lunch of that inauguration? kevin: all you have to do is focus on pennsylvania, a key that'll ground state. -- a key battleground state. hop over to new jersey, a refinery that has just laid off thousands of employees come on the fracking issue. that coupled with the unrest in philadelphia, there's dynamics in pennsylvania right now that are really unclear variables. you look at the reuters if so's psos poll,uters i

where he is up five percentage points, just outside the margin of error. speaking of pennsylvania, the supreme court failing to take up a case yesterday, even with judge amy coney barrett on the bench, failing to take up a case yesterday that said they will not touch what republicans want in the state, which is to be able to counterbalance if they are mailed in after election day. that is crucial in the uncertainty coming into next week. lisa: that is exact lay where i was going to go, this supreme court ruling. it kind of goes counter to what the ruling seems to suggest in wisconsin. how big of a deal is this? basically, they will accept and count absentee ballots the day after the election. kevin: it is massive in terms of the volatility, especially if you are an investor and trying to figure out exact when we could have a result.

as a result of this case, they will continue to counterbalance. if there is a razor thin margin as you just correctly pointed out in a state like wisconsin, all eyes will be on wisconsin. the media cycle, the media circus, will be very much a dynamic that will all be unfolding if it is a close race. jonathan: a question as to this affects most because the democrats were already concerned about this issue. i wonder if that is helped drive some of the early turnout. kevin: precisely. when you have upwards of 80 million americans already have and cast their back-check, the patchwork of the specific counts in states like florida, which is different than it is in michigan, different than in wisconsin, it is going to be remarkable. be smart not trying to here.

you are exhausted. you've been doing this for months and months in the campaign. do you believe the polls? kevin: not at all. no, to be blunt. don't haveuse they the best track record. i think there is a difference between a pollster and a reporter. i think the problem with pollsters is they haven't been to many of the parts of the country and don't really understand the psychology of what is happening, for example, and parts of wisconsin for parts of pennsylvania. they don't really understand, they are looking at the average voter through the prism of the average voter. i think there is a clear advantage based upon the data, the hard data which has come in from the early voting numbers, from turnout in terms of demographics and geographic parts of the state, which typically have demographics that are more progressive, and i think that data shows that joe

biden has the upper hand in terms of turnout coming into this election. but does this data drive elections to the polls? that is another -- drive republicans to the polls? that is another unknown. jonathan: this thing wreps up may be in five days. the emphasis on maybe, and that is the word that markets are grappling with for the last couple of months. tom: no question. we do it with a movable feast. i don't suggest that what we see in europe will fold into the huge domestic debates we see in this election, but i can't even tell you where we will be tomorrow night, let alone where we will be tuesday. that is how fast events are moving. jonathan: i can't either, but i think the covid cases increasing our significant. i think for this market, it seems to only be responding to restrictions that come from governments in france and germany. what was interesting about germany is the consumer starting to disengage before restrictions came through. that is really important when

you start thinking about what is going to happen in the united states. as those cases pick up again, even if there is a higher tolerance for cases because of hospital capacity and treatment, if consumers respond to that higher caseload by disengaging, that will have an economic impact. arguably we have already seen that in europe for the last 24 hours even happened. tom: we see the big bouncing gdp statistics today. be that will drive forward the conversation. mr reporting is that mr. acron is flying to niece now. no surprise there -- flying to nice now. no surprise there. jonathan: a knife attack at the notre dame church. we will look forward to hearing acron a little later today. this all happening in europe's second-largest economy, the

first being germany, which also has a new set of restrictions as well. a lot of focus on europe. it has really hijacked the news flow in the last 24 hours, drawing attention from an election that ramps up in five days' time. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: busy thursday morning. good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. two hours away from the opening bell in new york city, let's get you up to speed on the price action. we have a bounce. it fades as we get deeper into the morning, up 11 on the s&p. we advanced 0.3%. euro weaker, dollar coming back again. euro-dollar, $1.1711. your 10 year yield, 0.776%. that is the story of the market. the story of the last 24 hours, more restrictions in europe. no stimulus from the united states until at least after the election. this was the take from bill dudley, former new york fed bank president. >> the fiscal stimulus was so great that it actually boosted household savings, and the

reopening we saw in the economy, and september also provides support to the economy. i think that is really what the stock market is reacting to. jonathan: that is certainly what the stock market is reacting to. mr. dudley added to that, the real concern is whether this federal reserve has the firepower to respond to anything if the fiscal stimulus doesn't come. tom: i'm not an expert at this, but i love the idea of saying 2% and 3% gdp was certainly comfortable for everyone in washington. you see in the literature, do you read anything that discusses 6% of gdp? jonathan: now. -- no. what are you talking about, q4? now. i'm with you tom: i think this is so important, the framework of a very selective few saying we are going to get up to $5 trillion and $6 trillion, whatever the

number is going to be, of aid. no one is talking that possibility, are they? lisa: just relying on the fed to come up with something, and yet it is very unclear what they can come up with. tom: what we are going to do is get right to it with our guest today. can do that with michael collins of pgim, fixed income portfolio manager. i want to take the equity chat and bring it over to the adults in the bond market. that would be you. omo, fear of missing out. i am deciding whether i've got a window of opportunity to buy apple computer. with price down, yield up, do you have fear of missing out across the credit space? worldl: everyone in the has fear of missing out in the credit space. we just got news overnight that life insurance companies in japan are increasing their allocation to the u.s. credit markets. we are the last bastion of

positive real yields in the world, and the money is going to continue to flow for years, and we are definitely in on that trade. tom: jon ferro, you have been way out on front on this. italy has an offering that shows that fear of missing out. jonathan: that came back in after a selloff yesterday. i think keeping an eye out on italy is really important. the jury is still out as to whether we have made that full conversion to behaving like a sovereign. how independent he that market someill on coming out with accommodative language later? italian i think the debt in general is very reliant on continued fiscal consolidation, this monetary policy support. you wouldn't necessarily buy italy or greece based on the fiscal situation or, growth projections, but the entire

european bond market is coming together and behaving like one government bond market more and more. we think over the longer-term, those yields are going to continue to compress towards each other. jonathan: so you are looking for some capital returns on the periphery, then? you are not looking for the yield at 74 basis points on the 10 year. . michael: the way you get the capital return is you short the bund on the other side. it is a spread game. like everything we talk about in the bond markets, it is a spread compression. we do not own treasuries by and wege in the portfolios, and are short things like bunds. that is the trade. . you are betting on that spread compression to get the capital gains. lisa: you said you don't own treasuries in your portfolio. this to me is one of the most dynamic aspects we see today. we could treasuries even as stocks selloff. is this sort of the moment of truth for treasuries, acting as

a hedge in a risk off scenario? they no longer work that way? michael: if you see the amount of chat and research we have done on that subject in our shop, we have looked at betas and imperial analysis, and the zero lower bound is the problem. i was really concerned yesterday when the stockmarket was down 3% and the long bond was down half a basis point. hedging qualities do start to diminish for sure. we have been advocating toward our clients, you don't want to sit in 60% stocks and 40% u.s. old-fashioned bloomberg barclays ag in treasuries. you have to be in the higher-yielding credit sectors, which means here correlations don't work as well. they are not as negatively correlated as in the past. but that is a way to add value to your folio. lisa: on a day like yesterday, that means double losses.

saul riskier credit, which offers that spread, do that much worse because people are concerned that companies are going to go bankrupt with all of these shutdowns. so what is the hedge? michael: that is a real tough one. i think the hedge is you do not focus on the day-to-day wiggles, the week to week, the month-to-month movements in your portfolio. how my going to have the most money in my pocket three years from now, five years from now, 10 years from now? you build your portfolio that way. that being said, the credit markets by and large have been really well-behaved through this equity volatility. the credit markets don't necessarily care if the big, highflying tech companies get revalued at lower pes. they don't care if the democrats start breaking up the big tech companies. we are kind of out of the fray. tom: on a partial differential basis, looking at nominal yield

dynamics, looking at the breakeven inflation gas, and finally looking at the real yield, which of the three are you going to look at? i guess we've got a technical issue right now. we have been challenged with a call with michael collins of pgim, so i think we will leave it there right now. we can do that because the news flow is extraordinary. it does go to the real yield, which has shown some nice stability here in the last days of turmoil. negative 0.953%. onathan: chet dorsey called control room to complain. his call was epic, so he cut the line. beard, getting into the yoga, i would love a karma tom keene with a beard. wouldn't you love that, lisa?

tom: dorsey like? lisa: i'm sorry, a beard would not make him calmer. he would braid it. there would be bowties in the beard. you know that there would be. tom: i would be has gray as letterman, and that's bad. lisa: it would be lovely. jonathan: big sent to -- big thanks to mike collins of pgim. let's get to the price action of the moment. this market is turning a little bit here. this dax rolling over, negative about 0.3% in frankfurt, germany right now. if you pull up the foreign exchange on your terminal, wcrs gives you a quick snapshot. bottom of the pile is the norwegian krone, down 4.14%. top of the pile is the japanese yen. we are starting to capture the risk aversion. kathy jones this morning, the

market is a better indicator of risk appetite, and that risk appetite is starting to turn. lisa: this was the most fascinating aspect of yesterday. the treasuries were not a hedge to the equity volatility. the dollar was, despite all of these people coming out throughout all of this year and saying the dollar has lost its preeminence as the dominant currency in the world. it was the singular head yesterday and has continued to beat. it is this irony of 2020. jonathan: i don't even know it is ironic. i think of the likes of stephen roach putting out the same story over and over again. it is him and others. i don't have any particular feeling about him. it is him and others putting out the same argument. the key driver foreign-exchange has been when things are good, when risk appetite is buoyant come the dollar will be weaker. when you turn that upside down, the dollar is stronger. when things hit the fan, people by the u.s. dollar. i haven't seen the change in that all year.

we haven't had a bigger risk off event in the last decade, and people went to the u.s. dollar. lisa: the reason why i think this year felt different was because of just how much money the federal reserve was pumping into the system. this idea that they were inflating so dramatically that people were saying they were going to devalue the dollar. that was sort of the fear that seems to be growing a lot of circles. your point, and you highlight correctly that it has always been the same story, and perhaps it remains the same story. g10, dollar bid. tom, you up on this. crude, brent, w ti, norwegian krone is capturing that. the story coming through is not a pretty one at the moment. tom: i really focused on crude. lira, which turkish of course is folded into the france debate and the challenges they are having in nice, very

weak yesterday, then stronger after mr. erdogan's comments. todayerses sharply to an 8.32. 8.45 is a roughly four standard to be edging move. all, lira may be folded into the politics of nice. jonathan: that is a sixth straight day of lira weakness. the other thing you've got to fold in is just a lack of central bank could ability. it just hasn't been rebuilt. that is why the market seems to be confident just to keep pushing this and pushing this. tom: take us out here, but i think it is so important that christine lagarde has to find a credit ability today, given the news events of europe. is this her biggest conference today? jonathan: no, i think it might be the second-biggest of the year. the biggest one was back in march, where she made the mistakes of saying we are not here to close spreads.

i imagine the ecb president is not going to make that mystic again. the follow-up after that was widely expected. the pressure is on a little bit later. not expecting them to do much. it is about the language. how accommodative are they willing to be at some point in the future? because of the time difference with frank for it, that decision will be in one hour -- with frankfurt, that decision will be in one hour from now. that means 8:45 eastern time. from london and new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. another suspected terror in france today, the third in the last two months. in the city of nice, police say an attacker armed with a knife wounded three. authorities say they believe the active loan. france has been -- believe he acted alone. france has been on high alert for extremist violence.

a trial began in the 2016 killings at the newspaper charlie hebdo and a supermarket. it is the fifth time this year louisiana has been hit by a tropical storm. zeta came on storm is a hurricane before heading into mississippi and alabama. it has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. about 2 million people are without power today. at least one person was killed. in germany, chancellor angela merkel has defended her decision to once again severely restrict movement. she told parliament the country is in a dramatic situation with the rapid spread of the coronavirus. starting monday, germany will impose a month-long partial shutdown. taiwan has achieved a different kind of record involving the coronavirus. the country has gone to hundred days without a locally transmitted case. overall, taiwan has had 550 cases with seven confirmed deaths. the island has relied on strict

border control, contact tracing, and masks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are all in this together. no member state will safely emerge from the crisis until everyone does. >> what was the best strategy?

locked the most vulnerable, protect, alert. none of that is in the current situation. we need to take it further. >> we need to ask now, as we have done without hesitation. obviously there are painful choices because there is no restrictive measure that has full impact. >> we need to lower the risk of infection. because of this, we need another national effort for the month of november. jonathan: some of the european leaders on stricter restrictions as cases continue to rise in the european union, and restrictions in france and germany come through in the last 24 hours. want to turn to the price action briefly. a rough monday, tuesday and wednesday in europe, and some of that bled through to the united states yesterday. this morning, this bounce is fading fast on the s&p 500. we advance a little more than 0.1%. the euro stoxx 50 is down by 1%. i know you have been talking

about euro. euro-dollar holding onto a $1.17 handle. i think the lowest of the $1.1702, but there it is, off by 013%. tom: it is a plunge, to say the least. we have gone from $1.1750, $1.1705 right now. will meet with the assembled in nice, and no word yet on when he will speak to the nation on the terror attack seen in nice. i would respectfully suggest this is your interview today on what we are going to do about this pandemic. not about cases or deaths or doctors and masks, but about public policy of how to deal with

worried about this. this is not a virus that actually mutates very quickly there have been changes that allow this to much more quickly spread, which is concerning, but i am much more confident that we will be able to have reasonably effective vaccines, and the antibodies are promising to also be very effective. the challenge there is going to to manufacture enough quantity and get it to people fast enough. jonathan: great to catch up with you this morning. we appreciate your time. marta wosinska weighing in on the public health crisis. let's bring you the shape of the session on the s&p 500. , unchanged. this bounce has faded really quickly. this bounce never even got started over in europe. euro stoxx 50 come of the equity market in europe, down by about one full percentage point. yesterday, the losses all across the board, but the big losses were in tech. interesting to see, back on top again come outperforming on a relative basis. more broadly, risk appetite hasn't bounced back after a

vicious monday, tuesday, wednesday. tom: what i would notice as well is gold has been really stable here through the morning. i know for dollars isn't a lot, but nevertheless, gold slips away to $1875 an ounce. euro-dollar, $1.1707. jonathan: i think we are always focused on the shark closer to the boat. rick read what always use that phrase. the shark process to the boat has been the election. i cut up with a fixed income investor yesterday, and they said to be quite bluntly, shame on us. the investor community taking their eye off the most important thing, what is heaven with covid and what might happen with restrictions. lisa: i have to say come of the conversation you had with mohamed el-erian a couple of weeks ago, where he was saying the market just wanted to go up and people were coming up with a narrative around it, that is how it felt. now we are coming up with the

other narrative. all of people care about viruses. we asked every fund manager on the sale about the virus counts as they came on and expressed their bullish view. everyone said there will be a vaccine, but also a fiscal support bill. why is the promise of a fiscal support bill not enough right now to buy the dip? jonathan: fiscal stimulus can't get you past winter, and that is the problem. we are not even in november. it is about to get colder. you see this in the severed -- in the southern hemisphere. talk about australia coming out of the other side of this. it is getting warmer. here, it is getting colder. i think the question on the political basis is going to be asked in the final weeks of this campaign. italy and germany have been celebrated for their response, and they have restrictions again. the president has been criticized for his response, and they are in the same boat. that is noticeable -- that is notable. every restaurant is dealing

with this weather change. jonathan: this market fades. the s&p 500 negative. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way

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>> it doesn't really matter who is elected. i think the market is headed higher into next year. >> we could be in for a prolonged correction. >> the service is part of the economy is really in trouble. >> but we need is central bank and financial markets. >> the longer we wait, the bigger that package is going to need to be. >> it is clear we are going to see downward revisions in many businesses. the question is how strong they are. >> it looks like we are headed towards a double-dip. it is increasingly likely in europe. in the u.s. we might still have a fighting chance. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa