>> looks like we are heading towards a double-dip. >> we could be in for a prolonged correction. statescy in the united on the fiscal side continues to come up short. >> the longer we wait, the bigger that package will need to be. >> it is clear we are going to see downward revisions in many businesses. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. as the morning grows older, the equity rout overnight inches back a little bit. equities down 0.6%. what a week still ahead of us. tom: much to do on this friday, and four days to the election. will talk about that here on "surveillance."

i've got to go to the pandemic and the fold in to our foundations of this coming quarter, our foundations to 2021. you've got to comment on what the eu saidd yesterday. jonathan: a call for more fiscal stimulus across the continent as well. christine lagarde pretty clear about what she wants to do in december. the colder it gets, the harder it gets in europe. cases are going up. more restrictions are coming on. big question for the united states, what's next the deeper we get into winter? tom: we've gone back and forth this morning with differences of opinion. it is a movable feast. i would say that the one item this item as the president adjusts his plans for what he will do election night because of the pandemic. he had plans to go to his hotel. he will not.

the rumor is he will stay at the white house. jonathan: according to open what the new york times." -- according to "the new york times." lisa: we will get some earnings from exxon mobil, the third-quarter earnings. the reason i am interested in this is a variety of reasons. they announced yesterday they would be cutting 15% of their workforce through the end of ofure -- through the end 2022. i am really curious about that. it: 30 a.m., september personal income and spending data. what it is like billy to show is a decline -- what it is likely to show is a decline in personal income. longer can it uphold the economic growth? 10:00 a.m., university of michigan sentiment index. to your point earlier about the u.s. antivirus and the spread, we saw a record number of cases

overnight in the united states. how much is this going to affect sentiment? how much is this going to affect business activity before any lockdowns go into effect? jonathan: that is the unknown. here's the price action this friday morning. in europe, one of the worst weeks we have seen for the european equity market going all the way back to march. in the united states, s&p 500 futures down 18 points. at about 2:00 a.m. eastern time, nasdaq futures absolutely plunged, and then they started to come back a little bit. we are seeing a similar story in the fx market. the euro is weaker, now unchanged. one consistent through all of this, even with a rout earlier this morning and the equity market, the treasury market specifically did not move an inch. 82 basis points on the tenure. tom: i am going to say three days ago, we had this equities move, bonds don't. then we have equities move, bonds move. now we are back to where we were

three days ago. you see it with 0.82% on the 10 year yield. jonathan: james athey joining us now, aberdeen standard investment asset manager. the action really whippy on this friday morning. james: it is frustrating for us, actually, as duration bulls. we thought risky assets were being incredibly complacent across a broad range of factors. we have been thinking about this and trying to piece together some sort of understanding of why that might be the case, but i think the story we have settled on is that this is a position unwind. the market was positioning for fiscal stimulus and a blue sweep. let's be somewhat clear. that meant being short dollars, long risky assets, and being in treasury curve steepness. have seen is even though yields have gone up, the curve

has flattened, and we have seen equities being unwound, and the dollar and the yen rallying. the dollar is definitely one where there have been short positions. with think this looks more just like it clear out of some of those positions, maybe because the virus has got worse, also because of some concerns that the election results might be closer and might be contested. tom: futures right now, -18. so you have ownership of equities. you have new money to put to work. you have to have a framework, a view out there. where is there? 4?it 2021 or november james: ideally, we would like to take the long view. certainly if you are an equity investor, my equity colleagues look at the quality of the firm, the quality of the balance sheet. they are not making an economic

call, and they will definitely be able to look through political events like this because they will be comfortable that the company they are buying is a good company at the right price. that is not the case for all types of investment, and certainly not for all types of investor. so it is a bit more difficult because the prices themselves are going to be a function of the result and what it means for policy going forward. so depending on the type of investor, you will be able to look through this event to a greater degree. we would find it more difficult to completely ignore, so we will be managing our risk levels and exposures accordingly. lisa: and yes, you said it has been a frustrating week for you as a duration bull. what is the hedge here? james: i would have said the curve was directional. we have been running bullish duration positions, then we got some long and steepness in the u.s.. our fx positioning has been favorable to the moves this week because we have been positioned long the dollar, the yen, the

swiss franc, some of the riskier currencies. us,as been a good hedge for but going into the event itself, i think the outcome is a lot closer than nate silver, for example, is calling it. i find it difficult to build a portfolio that i think will be truly robust to every possible outcome, so i am going to be happy running some risk, some short duration positions in europe if yields go really high. i think european yields get dragged to some degree. it is not a huge amount, but they will get dragged bit higher . they are still having a bit of a small duration long bias in europe, some defensive positions in fx, but just taking the risk down. jonathan: how well do using this market has priced in the headwinds for the recovery we are seeing develop in europe and elsewhere? i am looking across asset. crude, the dollar.

ossian topped out around a similar time -- aussie yen topped out around a similar time. that was two months ago. i would argue this market was pretty ahead of some of these risks. what do you say to that? james: broadly speaking, i think we've gone too far, too fast quite some time ago, and it didn't really need the recurrence of a virus spread we have seen. again, we were just priced in the extreme of the probability distribution. we were priced in a utopian future when earnings would almost instantly recover. policy was going to be sustainable and effective. everything was going to be hunky-dory, and the uncertainty around that is somewhere close to zero, so that was quite ridiculous market pricing. we have seen some pushback against that. to go to your original question, how well is the market pricing the outlook, i would still say terribly. looking at u.s. equities doesn't give you a good picture for global equities.

--opean equities of you have equities as you have described have had a terrible time. they look credibly low comparable to the u.s. equitiesassets in u.s. have really not taken account of the probability distribution of how this will play out, but also taken account of the damage that has been done and will continue to be done to economies and business models. tom: i just looked on the bloomberg at a log chart of the value line geometric index, which is an old war horse. it takes out a lot of the emotion, a lot of the dynamics of the movable feast of all of these big cap stocks. it is extremely well contained, and as you said earlier, basically a pullback. how do you know when a bull market ends? how do you know as a fundamental guy? james: you actually don't.

you know in the rearview mirror. i can't quite remember who, one of the sell side analysts was drawing comparisons to this earnings season in the u.s. with season,000 earnings where you got solid looking earnings, lots of beats versus expectations, and get equity performance across the index basis is absolutely diabolical. nobody in march or april 2000 was saying that was the top of the nasdaq and it was over. it was only the end of the year when you could look back and go we are kind of done here. that's the highest we've seen. it takes a long time to get back to those highs when the overvaluation is so extreme. ,o impossible to know especially when you live in a world of justification for extreme valuation just using rather glib narratives which don't stand up to a lot of scrutiny. for a loteen the case of stock valuations in this

period. so i think we will only know in the rearview mirror. jonathan: great to catch up, as always. good to hear from you. aberdeeney there of standard investment. nasdaq futures turning around this morning. they were down about 2% at 2:00 a.m., now off by 0.9%. dr. talk about bit tech and the earnings after close. apple still off in trading. the weighting into the nasdaq 100 makeups 13% of that index. when apple is not doing well, it is fair to say the nasdaq is not doing well either. tom: we are going to see how that works out. there's been a lot of sell side reaffirming. is 1700e line geometric and it is rebalanced daily. is flat over the last five years. that is the partition of the stock market. iveshan: on big tech, dan

joining us shortly, wedbush securities analyst. from new york and london this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market slowly recovering, with the emphasis on slowly, after a brutal week for the equity market longs. this is bloomberg. . with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. house speaker nancy pelosi and treasury secretary steven mnuchin playing the blame game. each blames the other for the lack of coronavirus relief l. mnuchin accused pelosi of holding up a bill by refusing to offer compromises. policy says the white house -- says thee -- pelosi white house isn't responding to a number of suggestions. floridan says if goes blue, "it is over."

germany's chancellor angela merkel says the european union should have acted sooner to control the coronavirus pandemic. merkel told eu leaders that political realities stopped them from imposing restrictions earlier. a flareup in infections in europe has forced fresh lockdowns. british prime minister boris johnson's government is sticking with his local plan to tackle coronavirus hotspots. foreign secretary dominic raab says it would be unfair to impose blanket measures when virus rates vary so much across england. they are striving to avoid a national lockdown. shares of apple are lower today. the company's earnings missed wall street estimates. plus, sales in china plunged. ceo tim cook says the new iphone 12 line-up has been well received. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ now it isres. trump: bigger than any gdp we've

ever had. you have to go back to the 1950's. two weeks ago, i would have said i will take 12%. nobody ever heard of 12%. 33.1%. mr. biden: we can build back better with an economy that works well, and do it without raising taxes a single penny on working-class families. i guarantee you my word as a biden, no one looking less than 400,000 dollars will pay a single penny more in taxes. not a penny. jonathan: president trump and vice president joe biden rallying in tampa with just four days to go until the u.s. election. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this friday morning, the tone of this market just improves a little bit, every passing minute. we are down 19, off by 0.6%. in europe, things improve a little bit as well. euro-dollar unchanged.

dollar-yen the standout overnight. in the bond market, we have talked about this repeatedly, unmoved. the treasury market resilient to everything it seems. 0.824% on the 10 year. tom: one thing has moved, and that is the real yield. you can look for the jon ferro property this afternoon as well. -0.001% to -0.88%, a change to what the real yield is doing. let's get the politics at hand right now. kevin cirilli joins us. are they campaigning for the tuesday voters? after eagles-cowboys sunday night, how do they address the people that will actually vote on tuesday versus the male in game? ame?he mail-in g kevin: for president trump, he is going to show up.

he is going to be in , in the hometown of democratic presidential nominee joe biden. biden is heading to wisconsin today. hillary clinton was criticized for not going to michigan and ofconsin in the final days 2016. both of the sides are really just trying to push turnout. from the president perspective, gdp number, but he didn't get the vaccine. there was a forecast that we would see a strong gdp number, but they were bullish that we would have vaccinations. we are still about a month and a half away from that. sunday nighttom: biden,ssage does joe does donald trump want to convey during eagles-cowboys? kevin: i think it is that

audience, i am not sure that a tv ad is going to slip anything. texas is a battleground state. pennsylvania, battleground state. the dynamics we have alluded to in texas and pennsylvania specifically, with energy policy , refineries closing in the southeastern portion of the with the racial unrest we have seen in the city of brotherly love in philadelphia, where there is a 9:00 p.m. curfew, so the psychology of the pennsylvanian voter and whether or not they are motivated to show up to the polls is something that i think is a large unknown variable. . nash county, north carolina is a razor thin margin for president trump back in 2016. north carolina, a key, crucial battleground state.

you look at some of the business fundamentals. bank of america headquartered in north carolina. sevenis, five of the paths to victory the trump campaign has outlined in the past month publicly include a north carolina win, so i've got my eye on north carolina for a lot of reasons. lisa: we are talking about the polls, about the strategy. i want to know the on the ground effect of the mail-in ballots, and what is going to be counted where and when. which swing states are you looking at to delay the longest, versus those that will be most prompt? jonathan: such a great -- kevin: such a great point. i was reading that supreme court ruling yesterday, and talking some of my sources.

another unknown variable is how precisely the dynamics of this will look because of the volatility. here is what i mean by that. we don't know which state will matter, so to speak, on november 4 or 5. . we don't know which patchwork of state regulations in which the ruling will matter. we get into hypotheticals quickly right now, but we've got to be prepared. if you look at a state like north carolina, where local regulations upheld by the supreme court allow for the votes to be counted nine days after, that puts us about 5:00 p.m. eastern on november 13, which is a week plus out. in this type of media circus environment, so much can happen in a week in american politics, but that is really what we are dealing with, the final vote tallies if there is a ranger -- if there is a razor thin margin might not come in in battle

states until nine days after the vote. jonathan: great to catch up, as always. the numbers are absolutely amazing. more than 18 million americans already voting, 60% of 2016's total. tom: in some of the states, way more than that. what i would emphasize, forget what i think or you think. the pros in this game, that is the first thing they mention every conversation. there is no other topic than the early turnout. jonathan: the one that really stands out for me is texas, votet 95% of the 2016 total done early. it is incredible. lisa: it is incredible. we will see if we see overall massive turn or whether everyone is just mailing it in because they don't want to get sick going to the polls. one thing i find interesting about this election, what joe

biden's platform ip. it doesn't seem like anyone is gaming out a second term of president trump. you wonder how much of a surprise could come if he is up in the polls, if he is up in the election results in the immediate aftermath. that could be a massive disruption to market. jonathan: tom keene has given it plenty of thought because tom keene does not believe in these polls, as he has told us repeatedly. no.e a poll, tom says tom: i talked to the pros, and they are coming in just like they expected. lisa: i will tell you this. there was a story in "the wall street journal" about how even the people for trump in 2016 are not saying that they think he is going to win. even if people say we don't believe the polls, they are still pricing in that joe biden will win. so honestly, that is the conundrum in markets right now. jonathan: big conundrum in this market. after that election, you also have a fed decision and payrolls

friday. next we could get messy pretty quickly. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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♪ jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. two hours away from the opening bell this friday. here's the price action. futures recover just a little bit, then they rollover, down 21, -0.6%. a recovery in the european equity market. seeing some positive gains in europe after four days of brutal losses. euro-dollar unchanged at $1.1673. the treasury market unfazed by everything, it seems. the nasdaq futures were down 200, about 2%, now down by about half of that. linge shares fal after they reported iphone sales that missed estimates.

the company is facing some strains due to the coronavirus. , we areu look at iphone constrained today. how long we will be supply constrained, it is hard to predict. we are supply constrained on mac, on ipad, and on some apple watches as well. we are working really hard to remedy those as quickly as we can come about at this point, i can't estimate when we will be out of that. jonathan: that was the problem for many other companies that reported after the close. it was about the outlook and the lack of visibility that some of these companies have. tom: i just call it all-american uncertainty, around very good numbers as well. bull, out one year, out five years. can you write today with a

five-year model, or is the uncertainty so great that you've got to pull in your timeline? dan: i continue to view it as near term uncertainty, but in the case of apple, 40% of the installed base hasn't upgraded their phone in three and a half years. so the pent-up demand when i look out, i even think over the months, there's a little more visibility when you look for men install base perspective, but no doubt, on tech we continue to be bullish. tom: i look at the people looking 90 days or even a year out, and if you take any of these juggernauts and model them two years or five years, it is shocking the growth. as that growth enus -- is that growthiness still there? can it come down the income statement and persist out five years? dan: it speaks to our

bullishness over the past few years. we look at some of these names. the profitability profile is dramatically higher. look at apple in terms of services. that gross margin is about double the hardware business. i think what you are seeing is it is very easy to get myopic and nervous on some of these new prints, but for apple, the super cycle hasn't even started. we think preorder activity is --e than 2z iphone 11th more than 2x-11. why do you think the stock is down about 14% from the september high? dan: is it part of it is just general nervousness, going into super cycle. china obviously is the key to the overall cycle. quarter, it this think there's general nervousness that you are not

going to see that demand. see perfection built-in. i think you have seen risk off overall in tech going to the next week, but i believe it is short-lived. that is why i still think it is , tech stockstech are over 20% plus. jonathan: for the most of the year, it has been dead on. something happened in early september. some are asking whether we have already seen the pull forward for apple through the shutdown. this is not about waiting for the iphone 12. this is the payback for a really decent quarter when the world was shut down. what is your response to that? dan: you've seen the pull forward on macs and ipads. you have not seen the pull forward on iphones. that is really the key here. you are going to what i have used once in a decade, super cycle for apple. that is still on the horizon,

especially when it comes to china. you've got 40% of the installed base that hasn't upgraded their phones, and a stock that gets re-rated on services, which next year is going to be more than $60 billion. that continues to be the crux of the thesis here. this quarter doesn't change that whatsoever for me. aspect of the big tech earnings that strikes me as odd is that continue to trade as a monolith in large part. people talk about big tech as though their fates are intertwined, though their models are different. then you have amazon come eight knocked it out of the park in terms of projections, and people are still punishing them. do you expect divergence in the face of these shares -- in the fates of these shares? who will be the loser? dan: little divergence with google over the last six to nine months. they knock it out of the park

last night from an advertising perspective. i think a lot of that could be on the antitrust. as you start seeing more and more pressure going into next year specifically, if you see a blue wave, the googles and facebooks could trade a little differently than the apples in the amazons in terms of those secular trends. we do view them as a group, and i would put microsoft in there, as a platform play, and the strong are getting stronger. covid has accelerated the growth enterprise for the next one to two years. even though you will see some of the knee-jerk reactions from the likes of amazon. lisa: they are increasingly being treated as haven investments because of what you just talked about, and yet the valuations, the multiples are getting higher and higher. people are saying it makes sense with such low yield. how would you change your call

if benchmark rates in the u.s. went up? dan: that could change things, but i also think what is starting to happen is investors are viewing some of the parts. look at amazon a ws, e-commerce. look at apple from a services and hardware perspective. i do think in terms of the breakup talk to some of the re-rating you have seen, i think that is the key. on the other side, as you start seeing more of a risk on trade, tech continues to lead the market higher. i don't see that changing here in terms of the shifts we are seeing. i think it is evident through earnings season. tom: one of the great questions here, and i just did a quick pharaoh pop interpellation -- interpellationro here, other companies have tried that. intel, ibm.

that story didn't work out so good. is apple correct to be so corrective buying back shares? dan: it is hard to argue with the strategy, in terms of what you have seen on the net neutral cash policy. they are not acquisitive, and the buybacks, the reason i think it hasn't worked for some of those companies, they didn't have a golden installed base, and anything close to what the iphone is with a 96% renewal rate. given that they have more cash in some countries, that from an investor perspective i thing is the right thing to do. tom: what i find stunning is the margins of the growing service sector. 40%, 50%,stain those even 60% margins in service? dan: that is why i think the services business, we have said some of the parts, i think the services business is worth $950

billion. that is part of the re-rating in the stock over the last six to nine months as it's held up like rock of gibraltar if you look at the services business. they continue to stay where they are potentially go higher, and that is a key part of the bowl thesis -- the bull thesis. lisa: what do you make of the fact that china sales dropped 29% for apple? the idea that perhaps that has to do with a new phone coming out, but even more with the tensions that are growing between china and the u.s. when it comes to tech? dan: tension has been their poster child for the u.s.-china trade war, but i think this quarter is a throwaway quarter for china. it all comes down to you see a pause ahead of iphone 12. we believe you could see growth in china in the december quarter. headline.ary

i think three months from now, we sit here, we talk about how is china that strong in terms of iphone 12. that is what we see in terms of pent-up demand. you inn: and we will see three months. the bull is still a bull. apple right now, -4% in premarket trading. we talked about this a couple of times during the week. i've brought this up many times throughout the week. there's information in the new slow and in how markets respond to the news flow. ponczek,kets, sarah these names, if you haven't provided some nice guidance just to make you happy about the future, these stocks get punished, and these got punished after the close and into this morning. tom: they get punished after the close. it has been interesting to read the articles today. as jim with citigroup said, they

are moderate really -- they are modestly tweaking outlook. jonathan: what was your take after the close yesterday, with blowout numbers from some of these names, and that it was about the lookout? lisa: but there was much of one when you talk about amazon. their forecast was above expectations, and a lot of people thought it was overly conservative, and that they are going to do really well and the holiday season, yet their shares are down premarket. to me, it feels like people are so concerned that things are overbought, and they want to pare risk, and they sell what they can. the has -- these have become safe havens that you can buy and sell easily, depending on your risk appetite. jonathan: they are the market, so to speak, at the moment. here is what the market looks like. we recover a little bit and europe to just about flat.

on the s&p 500 futures, we were deeply negative. nasdaq futures come much more so overnight. losses, and we roll over. it is another choppy morning for the equity market, and a morning where the bond market does not want to participate. yields, 82 basis points on the 10 year. your euro unfazed. $1.1669.ar, . this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. they weren't able to agree on a coronavirus relief package before the election. now nancy pelosi steven mnuchin are still battling over terms for a postelection deal. the treasury secretary accuses the house speaker of refusing to compromise. pelosi says she is waiting for my nguyen's response -- for my nguyen -- for my mnuchin's response to her

demands. economists are projecting the u.s. economy will grow anywhere from below 3% to about 6% in the fourth quarter. the u.s. has set a record for its most coronavirus cases in one day. , a000 cases were recorded jump in infections again in new york and new jersey. plus, there is a record outbreak across the midwest. can assume the ecb president christine lagarde has signaled that more monetary stimulus is coming. that is according to one of the bank's policy makers. he spoke with bloomberg. >> this is a correct interpretation with some caveats. she also said it is very clear we use the december projections to make our decisions. what we have decided is to make preparations to go through our

whole portfolio and see in what area we need to recalibrate to be ready for december, but the decision will be based on december data. ritika: global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

in coronavirusce infections presents renewed health andto public

the euro area and global economies. information signals that the economic recovery is losing momentum more rapidly than expected. presidentecb christine lagarde really leaning into a recovery that is fading , andacross the euro zone teeing up the likelihood that we get more stimulus in december, indicating everyone on the governing council agreed to recalibrate the instruments. i think that is the story overnight into this morning. more stimulus coming from the ecb. tom: but everybody else as well. you really wonder with the pandemic news, are we really beginning to see here and into the week and after the election a tectonic shift in size of stimulus? somehow too many trillions of dollars? jonathan: yesterday, i thought

at one point president lagarde was thing a rate cut on the table, and many people thought it was the end of rate cuts. we caught up with the austrian central bank governors earlier this morning, and he essentially ruled out the possibility of a rate cut. so for those of you worried about even deeper negative rates in europe, the austrian central bank governor ruling that out. or bond buying to come in europe. tom: looking at negative interest rates in germany and switzerland. there is stasis there. not worse negative interest rates, but i would call it stasis after a challenging week. on the vaccine, on our biomedicine as we search for a vaccine, we talk to physicians. is with creditnt suisse at one of the toughest accounting forces in the country, the university of michigan. he joins us to look at the hopes

and the dreams of our biotechnology. your reports are unreadable. they are in greek. manyhave way too multisyllable words about the biotechnology of this moment. translate for us the major research goal of big biotech right now. evan: well, thank you for that introduction, and good morning. of course, there's a lot going on. before we went on air, we were talking about when is this going to be over. right now we need vaccines. that is hopefully coming. we will hopefully have positive data by the end of the year. i know people are very access for that. we also had develop and's from gilead, like with remdesivir. the fact is it is fda approved in patients who are in the hospital, that seem to do better if they are given remdesivir. we also have antibody cocktail's

from the likes of regeneron at eli lilly. regeneron is what the president was given weeks ago. tom: what did that regeneron cocktail cost walter reed? evan: that cost them nothing because it was part of a clinical trial. tom: but give me a price of what some thing like that is going to cost. evan: that is a very good question. one key data point we have is barda has a contract with regeneron for about 300,000 doses at about $450 million. so $1500 or so per dose. one of the things when i speak with the company, they caution on using that as the go forward price. i think that is somewhat reasonable, a little less then therapy for remdesivir, and this would be for the treatment setting. lisa: given the public health nature of all of these remedies and the vaccine, the fact that

the government is footing the bill for a lot of it, and a lot of the pharmaceutical companies are footing the bill for the r&d, how do you gain out the profit ability of their involvement in this? evan: that is my challenge every day. these models are constantly changing. when i think about it, i look at how important it is to just get out of this kind of current phase of the pandemic. we want to go back to normal. we need therapeutics that are effective, and vaccines that can be given to the masses. when i think about therapeutics like remdesivir, we know the price. we know it is relatively profitable for gilead, but they lost $1 billion in giving it up this year, which is pretty incredible. with the therapeutic antibodies, i think what is going to have a near term is it is going to be a direct sale to the government for this to bijan, so you are

not going to be able to necessarily have it distributed through a normal pharmaceutical method. the reason i bring that up is because that is how the pricing is. i think these companies are going to make some profit. they are not going to be unreasonable. this is something i have talked about before. but again, we are still kind of early in figuring out what the ultimate impact of profitability and we021 and beyond, could have a vaccine next year. abby just posted -- abbvie just posted full-year above average earnings. they seem to be doing ok. there have been a number of expedited vaccine approval processes, particularly in the u.k.. how soon do you think we will get an approved vaccine? probably under emergency use authorization versus full ia license or -- licensure,

am cautious we could have data from the pfizer vaccine sometime late november potentially. i expect us we have the safety data in hand, they will go right to fda based on some of the commentary that the company was talking about earlier this week on their earnings call. so short answer, hopefully by the end of the year, or the latest, sometime in the first quarter of next year. jonathan: evan, thank you. appreciate your time this morning. sir. you, that is the difference as we go into lockdown's in europe, the increase in infections as well. the horizon is different as well. people hope the vaccine is just around the corner that's the end of the vaccine is around the corner. in march, you were staring down the barrel of the complete unknown. no idea how long this would go on for. no idea how to treat it. tom: i looked at the vectors this morning and the cases, and the debt -- this morning, and

the cases and death factors are not attractive. the big question in biotech and pharma is the cost of delivering this to millions and millions of people. . i don't know how you do it at $1500 i dose. jonathan: the social stigma attached to making a profit on it as well, that is going to be a big issue that we have discussed many times throughout the year. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to an opening bell stateside with the market shaping up as follows. on the s&p 500, on the nasdaq, we are race some of the overnight -- we erase some of the overnight losses. the s&p 500 off by 0.75%. $1.1671.ar, foreign exchange getting more interesting this week. coming up, jordan rochester, g10 fx strategist for nomura.

looking forward to that conversation. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, what a week we've got coming up next week, with full coverage here on "bloomberg surveillance." this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it looks like we are heading towards a double-dip. >> we could be in for a prolonged correction. >> policy in the united states on the fiscal side continues to come up short. >> the longer we wait, the bigger that package will need to be. >> it is clear we are going to see downward revisions in many businesses. >> we don't have safe havens anymore. build a difficult to portfolio that will be truly robust to every outcome. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. on a friday, and