♪ caroline: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm caroline hyde. joe: romaine bostick is out .oday --oline: is it is not a flight to haven. joe: the question is "what'd you

miss?" caroline: we will discuss the stock market chugging along higher. this week the s&p 500 posted its worst week since march. gdp is that. even jobless claims declined more than estimated. disconnectk economy thes, but it didn't work right way round. the data held up in many ways. personal spending much better than expected, but it was a rough october and a rough week and an ominous one that has got global markets anxious. caroline: we have another cool

bar chart were you. basically what it is saying is if the stock market is ugly it does not code that well for the party that is in power. moment's, we have all seen some pain trade in the s&p 500. this does not bode well for a highlynt who speaks so of the stock market. people are looking for fundamentals. this is not voting well. joining us now, katie greifeld. what are people saying about

what is driving the market action here? reporter: it has been interesting to watch that breakdown. the s&p 500 is not down just 2%. while they are trying to focus on stimulus and a blue sweep, you are hearing chatter it could be a little more ominous. there is a warning out there that people are looking to raise cash. people are just trying to get their hands on that.

we do have a fed meeting. there's the concern about whether they appear to be worried about this, whether it is on their radar. yes, it's causing quite a bit of damage in terms of market fundamentals. assetsu talk about these , will we see gold selloff more. actually it rose today. reporter: that is the tricky part. gold actually behaved today. jpmorgan pointed out you can look for alternatives to hedge -- alternative countries, that

is, perhaps his. the problem is they are just not as reliable. -- gold'sk goals's behavior really fits into that narrative. have just fallen off a week. important,is more seeing the rise of cobra cases, volatility around the election, or the big stimulus that theoretically is going to come in 2021? do think the story lines intersect with this week has been all about the virus. we are seeingason this pulled forward. now that you see case counts rise there's concern about the further economic pain it could bring.

perhaps they would not be able to grow as much. if we did see a big multitrillion dollar stimulus deal, think it is safe to say markets would rally on the back of that. that is hard to do when you see the u.s. case counts hit records. cases hit records. we thank you. happy weekend. happy halloween to you. you just heard the stock story. next, will hear about the economy. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: today we are focused on how this narrative between stocks and the economy fit? there is somewhat more positive economic data today. joe: personal income and spending, this is one of those areas that was expected to get hit hard as soon as the stimulus and unemployment insurance expansion -- you saw that big

spike. we saw on a month over month basis spending grew again. also ahead of estimates. even though there are deep, structural issues and challenges, the data tends to generally surprise to the upside. caroline: and it's mainly based on the power of the consumer. joe: it's a very good sign. caroline: joining us now, the -- and inand ceo advisor for the democratic presidential nominee joe biden. it's great to get your perspective. are we on borrowed time. when we see this kind of ofnomic data with the lack stimulus, are we just awaiting the inevitable? >> that is what it looks like to me. we got new data on gross plastic product.

it actually shows we have so much further to go. tookxtent of the economy almost as big of a hit as during the great recession. we have really, really good numbers. the numbers are still not good enough to pull us out of the problems we have in in. joe: does it give you any pasta see personal income and spending as robust as it is, even with the end of the unemployment insurance expansion. this is supposed to be a huge lifeline. millions of people are out of work. .hat gives way and yet it did not cause the immediate jolt a lot of people were predicting.

seen jobs come back. we continue to see this week, ofin, it is the 32nd week people applying for unemployment benefits. those whenill get they have those additional unemployment and if it's, there's consumption data. they will have firms families. caroline: have you been seeing

more forward data in october and november. the kasich behavior. but these are people that are disproportionately of the higher end of income distribution. as so many others lost their jobs. as we move into 2021. the aggregate data is really not a good way to see the depths of the pain in many parts of the united states. joe: what about a future stimulus. .et's say take politics aside

ultimate example of what that should look like? we need to do everything we can to contain the virus. that should be job one. i can, look at a relief package. were looking at the heroes act, pointing out the kinds of things that we need to do. .hat is the scale the longer that we wait, the larger the package will need to be, especially because so many -- they could use of their initial round of unemployment than if it. and we need to make sure that we're taking to -- into account the kind of package that will andess structural changes the weaknesses in our economy that have really been uncovered.

we need to do a fairly big package in january if the political stars aligned. what sort ofine: policy would you like to see? usually we get some certification economy? you hit the nail on the head there. we need to make sure that this recovery is not like others where everyone gains and gains quickly -- it took far too long the lower end of distribution to see the benefits of the recovery. we need to see this invested in infrastructure, getting people to work and make sure those investments, all of them, are cognizant of these shocks and realities that life likes to bring insert preparing for those now. but then the other thing we need to do, if 2020 has shown us

anything is the importance of the care jobs in our society. this is behind those really labordeclines in women's workforce distribution. we need to look at child care and other aspects of the care economy. at those are the places i am looking to invest. joe: all right, our thanks to heather boushey. really appreciate you giving us your perspective. housing is one of the strongest spots in the u.s. economy, but can he keep pace? especially with no further stimulus? this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ caroline: today we are focused

on this narrative between stocks and the economy. for much of 20 stocks gained while the economy revolted. today, remotely reversed during one part of the economy that has been consistent is the housing market. joe: no one predicted a housing boom in a pandemic in a recession, and yet here we are. the data continues to look good. sales, existing home sales, housing starts, housing permits, housing rises, and residential investment -- that right there, that is more than a v. i don't know what shape that is. a square root on the nasdaq. very impressive. caroline: but is it stable? joe:. that's the question. caroline: -- that's the question. caroline: i think houseman is with us. ffman is with us.

you are a lender. are you seeing multifamily units unable to repay? >> we are in the middle of it. we are one of the most prolific lenders in the world, extremely busy on the single-family side is a littlel area -- a lot ofess people are moving to the suburbs. we do not see any weakness. if people are looking to make rent payments, they are barely off. we are very surprised to the upside. joe: why did people get this so wrong to the upside? obviously, people did not expect this because in boom. but people have talked about the need for relief. there has been paying.

it has not materialized the way people suspected. i'm curious if you could share your theories. >> i think the fear factor was definitely out there. if you look at the cares act, the impact it had, but people are spending less money. people are home. they're working from home. and they are taking good care to make sure that they are making the payments. i do think in the next couple months there is going to be a level of stress. because we have not seen any stress at all. saying wheney are is the next cares act coming out, how much longer? and that is what we are going to see over the next couple months.

i believe this will come out and it may be a little painful, but i think our homeowners and renters are in pretty good shape. have you been able to give any reprieve, have some been able to put off payments or moratorium? >> initially there were thoughts there were be a lot of forbearance. a lot of forbearance. but the last couple months, there's been almost no forbearance. the system is working very effectively and we have to keep -- you interest rates mentioned earlier on, the impact of housing. housing, low interest rates.

that's why the housing market is on fire. joe: i'm curious -- let's talk about urban real estate. also a lot of anxiety. if you look at the market, a lot of pain in commercial areas. do you see signs of this coming back? >> i think if you go to new york , they are ghost towns. and those particular areas are seeing flight. not only a flight, but people are not coming back the city. so you will see some concessions. you will see a disproportionate

amount in those areas and that should last all the way through next september. you've got 11 months of really slugging it out over these areas and keep in mind, they don't have students coming back. so it's a slew of factors. caroline: what do you do if you think the abnormal market is artificially health and will come out quite dramatically on the other side? do you buy it up that is very or is there a shift from people wanting to be in the suburbs. >> everyone is going quarter to quarter.

what's happening quarter to quarter. we will not see a return to normalcy from september. you have to carry the assets and then you really have to take a look. what are these going to look like in september. they returned to normal. these are factors you have to look at. the recovery level going to be? clearly if you go outside the urban areas, but countries, they are doing well. the urban areas, you really have to dodge -- where is it going to be occupancy, where our taxes when be? those are the things you have to put time and attention to understand those parts. joe: really appreciate it. thank you to ivan kaufman. caroline: fascinating

perspective. we will get more fascinating perspectives. subscribe to our weekly podcast. it is called "what'd you miss? this week." --: "bloomberg advantage "bloomberg technology" is next. ♪

♪ emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco in this is "bloomberg technology ." coming up in the next hour, big tech hangover. we will go over the massive news yesterday and examine why tech earnings are provoking a deeper scrutiny of lofty valuations. plus, online conspiracies. with just a handful of days left until election day, we will get a primer on all things qanon,