host: a very good morning and welcome to daybreak australia. i'm in sydney. from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. asia markets hope to rebound from last week's tech selloff. weekrs brace for a dominated by u.s. elections. to lead thetinues

way out of recession. factory performers stabilize while consumer spending shows that recovery remains on track. year profits plummet. cash earnings falling 52%. it includes provisions for customer compensation. ahead.omáui let's check in on the markets. >> a big week indeed. we do have asian stock futures gaining for october with friday a significant day. the start of another trading week, we do have a bunch of asian pmi's do today alongside more data from china. and the offshore yuan will be below 670 after a five-month game.

focus with as a and alibaba. waiting on a big milestone this week. the hong kong dollar on friday following the most since june after its close. amid this frenzy -- >>"q÷d-

it has been fraught with twists. none of it seems to have altered the course set month ago as joe biden continin handful of states. pennsylvania is a huge one but everyone has been talking about ohio and the upper midwest. as well as georgia and north carolina that have traditionally been republican. it looks like they will be very close. florida is always tough. it seems like whichever way the country is swinging, florida is very close. huge early voting. ñ out in the final results. > when you take a look at donald trump's paul lang, pretty much at the same place he was in the last election. what does that for boat about how this could go from here? rebode about how this

could go from here? >> in 2016, he was the outsider. he put himself in that position again this weekend. he has been in

polls have been consistent. they are unsure if they are accurate. >> we have the latest polls from emerson saying that they are tied in north carolina. also tied in texas. this is according to the emerson college poll. hearing from sources that the president may be holding a celebration party at the white house with hundreds expected to attend at a time when we see a thee in cases of coronavirus. how will that play into the election? been sooronavirus has politicized in the u.s., the be so than anywhere else. when we think back to the amy coney barrett event at the white house in september which potentially lead to all of the coronavirus cases in donald trump's inner circle, that was a big thing. and if president trump really has hundreds of people inside the white house tuesday night it

could be -- here we go again. if he loses, maybe nobody cares but if he wins, the coronavirus will never seem to go away accelerating once again. shows 2020 in a , the democrats have been concerned about the spread of the coronavirus and taking trumpes while the administration has consistently downplayed that. one other thing we saw today was the white house coming out very strongly against anthony fauci. takewas an interesting after he was interviewed by the washington post last night. intoy erratic coming election day with a lot of uncertainty. we have more perspective on

the u.s. election ahead. we will be hearing from david bloom and his call on where the u.s. dollar heads from here. global and former white house press secretary will be a long with us later. karina mitchell has the headlines. coronavirus numbers are forcing more nations into strict curfews. thece, spain, germany, and u.k. are already under controls. switzerland is putting geneva into partial lockdown. on the eve of a historic u.s. presidential election, the u.s. reported more than -- cases over the weekend. anger is rising across europe as governments impose new lockdown rules. protests erupted after officials

blocked travel to certain regions. the u.k. will go into lockdown later this week. banned.el abroad is now in other news, china's factory performance fell slightly last month. helped liftnding services and showed that recovery remains on track. is manufacturing pmi and ask largely in line with the bloomberg survey. personal consumption ticked down. the five-day performance was affected by the golden week shutdown. week and iss this expected to cut rates to a record low and unleash further stimulus. the bank is expected to cut the cash rate on tuesday while reiterating that there will be no tightening for three years. ofy always see more biting

bonds to put more pressure on the aussie dollar. and the new zealand prime minister has signed a cooperation agreement with the -- for a second term. she wants additional support in parliament. she says the deal with the greens does not require consensus on policy or even a line it but continues the general relationship the parties created earlier. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. >> still ahead, a record fine bigbad debt charges makes a hole in westpac's profits. and belgium is the latest european nation to go into full lockdown. and cases in the u.s. continue to climb i had of the election. this is bloomberg. election.f the

this is bloomberg. ♪

ked out allar ei spike again. is the week that matters the most and it is all about politics. david bloom joins us now from london. great to have you as always. look at this chart to get the conversation started. look at the jump in the u.s. dollar. do you expect to see this kind of reflationary play happen again given we have not had the same infrastructure investment? you say that but everyone thought that if donald trump got elected that everything would go halt -- horribly wrong.

they are saying it again. [indiscernible] what you're saying is the other -- you try to bring fear into the electorate. we have seen the s&p coming off, this is a rick -- risk off move. i expect this to be reversed on wednesday. we will be back on to the next thing. and i think the equity market will rally it we get happens if another four years of the trump administration? given that we don't expect a vaccine to come into play anytime soon and we may yet see

the worse of the virus happen in subsequent waves. rede are talking about the party and the blue party but the dollar is green and does not care. i want someone to win the election and the other side to say -- it is done and over and that is what matters to the dollar. it does not matter if it is biden or trump. matter if it is biden or trump to the dollar. as long as one side concedes and the other moves on. >> isn't that optimistic? the whole point now is we don't know if it will be contested. we have heard the president say several times -- we will have to see. thatat is why i am saying it is the fear tactic.

i don't believe that to be true. i do believe we will get one side conceding. massive you will get a relief rally. tzx;there is fear in the markets right now. the reason we don't know the outcome of the u.s. election is the russians haven't decided yet. there we go. [laughter] >> i really want to believe you but the strength of the u.s. institutions -- it seems the last four years have really tested that and taken it to an extreme. let me ask you about other factors that could play into dollar strength or dollar weakness. if you get massive fiscal steam --stimulus, wouldn't you see more pressure on the dollar? >> not at all. the u.s. economy well rock under those circumstances. anywheret find growth

is a need for infrastructure in the u.s. and that will create growth. and everyone has these terrible fiscal positions. to say that the u.s. has a terrible budget deficit -- have you seen the alternatives? a lot of negativity about the dollar. everyone wants to write to it off but i do not believe it. what are you going to buy? diesel cars in europe? where are the great companies in the world? they are in the u.s. and it is the heartbeat of capitalism. you cannot give up on the dollar. >> look at the comparatively flawless recovery in china, you renminbi.uying >> no doubt about it.

depths in the liquidity in the financial markets are really in the dollar, the euro, bit in and even a sterling. china is still a very small market in terms of capital flows around the world. of course, -- what do you do with the other 98% of your portfolio? that is a big issue. there are opportunities in china. and you buy growth which argues why you would buy growth in the u.s. liquidity is still very limited in china. yen.u mentioned the we have not seen exactly the haven and demand that we might inect given the volatility other markets. do you expect to see that to change in the next couple of days? david: it seems as though. has had a big rally since

april. but s&p has put on a lot of weight. we have seen a lot of big moves. and the difference between trump where the-- that is big plays are. it is of the rotations of the equity markets that matter a lot. you talk about infrastructure and then you buy certain construction companies and oil companies. that is what happens when you have an election. it is played out in equity sectors. >> especially in the oil markets. if you get a biden presidency, he has talked about joining the climate agreement again. what happens if you get another oil shock? -- it depends on what

they talked about. when trumpmber that was elected, they talked about oil drilling in alaska and crisis fell. matters -- as far as the dollar is concerned. >> it is green. it could rally. we could see a relief rally. thereoes that mean and is one that is more vulnerable? >> in the relief rally, the s&p rallies and the dollar sells off and you will get some of the rallies across asia. the suspects that will move more including malaysia and indonesia.

you may, that is an opportunity to sell. robust believe in a dollar and i still think emerging markets will still have a difficult time ahead of them. future iseconomic gloomy in the u.k. come is brexit becoming a more peripheral issue for sterling? >> it is and it is a problem. -- we have this locked down through december 2 and then we have brexit. issueen there may be an with fisheries. we have been arguing this for years and we are still arguing about fishing. very negative on sterling. i'm very worried about the currency. and i think it has been underestimated because we are so upset with the virus. let's say a vaccine does not a deal thatget

nobody understands. we don't even understand the rules of a lockdown. can you imagine if we get a brexit deal? people want even know what it is. it is a very confusing environment. sterling want to i assets or sterling so i have a pretty negative view on sterling. >> so much to talk about even after the u.s. election is done. we will have you back. up, westpac profits as a money- 62% laundering fine squeezes its bottom line profits. that is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

62%.ac profit plunged the bottom line was also hit hard.

bloombergs matthew burgess joins us now from melbourne. the bigger question when it comes to the regulatory issues -- have we seen the rest of it from here? >> on the regulatory side i think we have. chargeclosure of the that they took money affecting cash earnings. the chief executive officer is on a huge transformation strategy of the bank so by the sound of it it sounds like he thinks the worst is behind them. when it comes to the operations of the bank. on the regulatory side of things, my read is that yes, they think the worst is over for the moment. are readyt divisions

topping 3 million aussie dollars, what does the future hold for westpac? forward an issue going for the bank and not just westpac. westpac increased their bad debt division ii 3.2 billion and [indiscernible] sense.does make provide a truer picture of the health of the economy. while westpac has this closed to third of their mortgages have back, the loans -- the provision suggests that the bank is not out of the woods

just yet. this comes as we are seeing for the first time that we have had no new local transmissions of the virus across australia. in melbourne, you are starting to enjoy some newfound freedoms from the restrictions. while that results in the bouncing back of consumer activity? will that help the bank get through the next quarter? >> living in melbourne come it has been a party when the restrictions came off and restaurants and bars have reopened. the bars were packed in the district where i live. anecdotally, we are starting to see a rebound in consumer spending for sure but we are not out of the woods. there is a lot of government support out there. we will see a truer picture of the economy coming up next year. >> here is a quick check of the

latest business flash headlines. a&pralian wealth manager says a preliminary takeover bid -- it isan equity valued at $4.5 billion u.s. the 171-year-old firm effectively put itself up for sale after sexual harassment case led to a board room shakeout. >> ever grant is selling a 41% stake in a company for more than $2 billion cash. it becomes the second-biggest shareholder after the deal. it is an investment holding firm with stakes in logistics, energy, and automotive. plunging 90% for stick -- six

months year on year. this is bloomberg. ♪

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now it's your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. karina: at least seven are reported dead after being hit by the strongest storm in the world. withoutmuch of wuhan power. the manila airport was closed for 24 hours but expects to reopen monday morning. the storm is crossing the south china sea and is strengthening. korea's news, south export recovery continued. the value of total exports fell slightly more than forecast.

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equally. than 2700 more journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. we are entering the final days of the u.s. election. new polls suggest joe biden leading president trump nationally as well as in some key states but anything can happen. now is jessica levinsohn. professor, great to have you with us. when are you expecting the final outcome? >> i wish that i had a good answer. i'm not expecting an answer on tuesday night. i know this disappoints a lot of people, but i want people around the world to know that if anybody claims victory on election night, be very careful about whether or not we can believe them. there are a number of states spending so much more time

voting by mail. those ballots take more time to count. some states don't allow people to start counting until the day before election day. we could be looking at a week. we would notting have big legal battles. shery: we are seeing more republicans challenging ballots, even seeking to get rid of votes that have already been cast. who would be the final arbiter of what happens on this front? >> what we can expect is more of the same. goppattern is really the suggesting that we need stricter laws when it comes to voting, and that we should validate more votes. the democratic party arguing the opposite, that we should have looser laws and should be careful about not doing it.

what should we expect after the election? close, there will be a battle to the death in those swing states. there will be heavy litigation about which votes should be counted. you will hear headlines like, if you did not put your ballot in askproper envelope -- you who could ultimately decide this, it could go to the supreme court. i don't think the chances are high but it is within the realm of possible. how does the makeup of the supreme court impact this? out is the fact that amy coney barrett has been appointed and confirmed way in on the highest levels -- weigh in on the highest level? >> the conventional wisdom is that she is a conservative

justice. the u.s. supreme court is 6-3 very conservative. we don' tknow, and this might sound naïve, we don't know the specific legal question that would come before the court. we don't of the facts. rump has said openly i want judge barrett to become justice barrett for election litigation. i don't think it is a done deal that everybody votes according to party affiliation of the president who appointed them. you can imagine a situation where judge barrett doesn't want to be for the rest of her career on the supreme court questioned about her independence because it looks like president trump said here is your job and she said think you and here is your job. haidi: it's interesting looking at this from outside the u.s. pretty extraordinary.

when you look at how complicated and confusing and difficult it is. are the likelihood of reforms? >> i wish i could say that they are hi. , in we had bush versus gore was a student at university, and i thought now we will finally invest in election infrastructure the way we should. haveerica, we don't national election standards. we have 50 different standards from 50 different states. we have old voting machines and antiquated rules that don't make that much difference because voting isn't that tight. now we have a perfect storm, more people voting by mail, a lack of education because most people go to the polls. having said all that, do i

expect we will invest in election infrastructure or have reform? i don't. tende past is prologue, we to care a lot about election sometime around halloween to after the election and then we forget about it. shery: we had a forex analyst earlier today and he talked about the rout in the dollar coming because he believes in the strength of american institutions. what i have seen in the last few years is what has happened to the erosion of institutional strength. look at the doj. >> unfortunately, i agree with you. this will sound like a partisan comment. it is not meant to be. i don't think america will look like america if president is elected for four more years. the guardrail cannot hold. there are some of strengths that

people talk about. the constitution assumed that people will lie a little bit. that is why we have a system of checks and balances. three different coequal branches. the american system assumes that people will try to take too much power. it doesn't assume that every branch will fail. based on the last four years, i don't think that we can depend on the senate. i don't think we can depend on the judiciary. at that point, we have a president trump not worried about running for reelection and he was less constrained. this has nothing to do with policy differences. this has to do with my fear that the rule of law is eroded in the institutional weakness is laid bare. i don't see this republic surviving in a recognizable state if president trump is reelected. happened ishas

meant to be a solidifying of a conservative-leading judiciary. am i correct? what happens if you get biden in the white house? would this conservative leaning judiciary hamper policymaking? we have already seen the courts strike down executive orders. an important question. president trump has been so efficient and effective at remaking the federal judiciary. he knows the judges are appointed for life so they will not leave with president trump. they will be there for sometimes 50 years. it could be that vice president biden becomes president biden, but his laws will be challenged, and the federal judiciary will play a large role. could vice president biden just remake the federal judiciary like trump? probably not.

president trump filled so many vacancies. that is part of what we were talking about before. that is part of the reason that senate republicans stayed with him because they were so efficient at remaking the judicial branch. inyou are a conservative terms of judicial thought, this is great news. if your center or left of center, this is troubling. the supreme court will be conservative at least for a generation. haidi: great to have you on. jessica levinsohn, clinical law professor in los angeles. the u.s. election coverage continues. we are joined in the next hour by other guests. we will also speak to kim whole haugaarder -- to kim

later. we enter the final stretch. some baking -- breaking news it comes to this. we have that long promised response this morning saying that the allegations are i'm substantiated -- are unsubsta ntiated. they don't wish to engage in detail with self-serving claims and strongly disagree with the assertions when it comes to the chinese business. it was alleged last thursday that these companies were based on fake posts and misrepresentations. now saying they are a leader on many metrics but not all. coming up next, the u.s. continuing to see surging virus numbers ahead of the election while countries across europe are tightening restrictions to slow the outbreak.

>> let's get over to hong kong for top calls and recommendations ahead of the asia trading day. markets waiting for postelection relief. where will the action be? blum told you earlier, he has seen the action

and the real action takes place in equities. he unequivocally says that it does not matter who is the u.s. vote when it comes to markets. gm investments are in the same camp. these money managers expect more gains ahead for asian stocks. byy outpaced global stocks the most since 2008. china's recovery is seen listing the region. that.e seen evidence of gdp growth of 3.3% in the third quarter. haidi: we haven't seen the typical russian to safe havens like the yen. ?here are we seeing that

>> they are staying emerging market stocks. safe havens after breaking out of the 2.5 year downtrend. enjoy insulation from global stocks with potentially turning to e.m. in 2021 after investors reduce their exposure. for goldman, this conviction has found just how strong it can recover. haidi: the u.s. off you are cases on saturday after reporting back to back record highs over the past two days. countries across europe are tightening restrictions. it looks like a pretty

significant drop in u.s. cases. not make an overall trend? >> it doesn't. overall cases have risen about 35,000 per day from 40's something to 70,000. of verye after two days high numbers. weekend reporting tends to be lower. i wouldn't read too much into it. it is still very much in line with these highs. we are now seeing the white house slamming dr. anthony fauci who has been the voice of the experts from this pandemic. what is happening? the president's handling of

the virus is central to his reelection. we'ressage has been that rounding the corner, that this is all ok, that we are nearly through it, that it isn't a big deal. dr. fauci said it is a big deal. i think he said we are in for a world of hurt as cases continue to rise. haidi: we seem to have lost ian there. that is the latest when it comes to the virus front. europe and the u.k. going to new restrictions as well. the pandemic is hitting starbucks hard. it has been trying to adapt to its third-place business model, giving customers a place outside its home to work and hang out.

they have lost over $1 billion with key markets remaining in contraction. kevin johnson says he thinks that the worst is behind them. >> the recovery has unfolded faster than we anticipated. ourthe low point in april, u.s. business was costing -65%. -4%.eptember, we comped we still had 3% of our storage closed. -4% in five months. in the month of september, china --t today positive comp china posted a

operate place safeway even with covid. we are focused on those experiences that customers are seeking right now. that has fueled our recovery. >> the goal is to get back to and past where you were before the pandemic. in 2021, your project and that you will get there. does the world have to get back to normal to work for you, or can starbucks get back to where it was? are we dealing with a full covid-19 that we cannot really understand? these fact that we built protocols, we have woven them into the operational capabilities in our stores. i feel confident that we know how to operate in the world of c ovid, even before there is a vaccine in therapeutics. we look for that day when there is a vaccine.

once that happens, we think there is a huge wave of demand that we will see far beyond this recovery. i'm confident that we have built a more resilient company and we know how to do this even with the spread of covid. >> i wonder if this helps accelerate the more traditional model where you sit for five hours in the store. how quickly can you implement that and move toward new technology? >> the last decade or so, we have been building a lot of drive-thrus throughout the u.s. if we look at where a lot of our orders are coming from, it is drive-thru's, mobile orders for pickup, curbside, delivery. seating,o open limited 60% of our stores now have limited seating. as soon as we open it, customers

are back sitting in the stores. we do it where they socially distanced. drive-thru ands it is mobile ordering on the mobile app. >> china is a little bit ahead of us in the recovery. that is reflected in starbucks. are you opening stores as fast in china as you were? you are opening them every day. we went into the shutdown in late january and february. they were the first market that we developed the principles by which we managed this pandemic and the operating store protocols that we distribute around the world. as china came out and flattened the curve, we had to pause the new store development and new store openings. in this last quarter, we opened

580 net new stores for the year. stores inrpassed 4700 china. we are opening as fast as we can and we will continue to invest in china. i'm bullish on the long-term opportunity in china. shery: kevin johnson speaking to david westin. if you are away from the screen, you can find in-depth analysis and big newsmakers on bloomberg radio, broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. listen to bloombergradio.com. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪

karina:karina: the latest figures from air new zealand show passenger numbers down from a year ago despite the coronavirus seeming to be under control. domestic passengers have begun returning but numbers are still down 40% on the year. have seennal arrivals numbers cut by more than 95% with 27,000 passengers for the year. cash earnings fell 62% for the full year to 2.6 billion aussie dollars.

the results included previously disco this disclosed charge. timeew ubs's has wasted no in expanding the footprint in the middle east. he became a after nearly seven years. he succeeds giorgio armani as ubs looks to cut costs. >> let's look at how we are setting up the most crucial trading week of the year. a pretty mixed picture. rebound set up in other parts of the market.

could see a gain of about half a percent in the next few minutes is trading gets underway. had the biggest weekly selloff since march and the worst we are seeing going into any u.s. presidential election. prevailingn that dollar weakness story saying that the relief rally will be strong for the greenbacks. coming up, we preview this week's rba decision and we get a preview of the dollar. the chairman drilling down into the voting patterns and the potential outcomes for the u.s. open. shootsseeing some green when it comes to some parts of the futures.

the aussie dollar just on the back foot. more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ sigh ] not gonna happen.

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a kohler walk-in bath provides independence with peace of mind. ask about saving up to $1,500 on your installation. virtual appointments now available. haidi: i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we're counting down to the major market open. shery: i am shery ahn in new york. asian markets aim to rebound from last week. weekrs brace for a dominated by the u.s. election. china continues to lead the way out of recession.