markets in a bullish mood on election day. almost 100 million americans have voted already, and turnout is expected to challenge historic records. euro area finance ministers discuss covid-19. to angela merkel urges people to follow the world. paints an optimistic picture at despite the pandemic as an infection point. this is uber surveillance. tom and francine from london and new york. it is exciting. today is a big day. we look at the dynamics in all of the swing states. two things we need to focus on. first of all, if there is a policyresidency, crucial differences -- i would point to energy, tech, and stimulus. on the other hand, we need to look at what is right for international audience. it is not about the national polls, it is about the electoral

college we need to focus on. tom: not only be electoral college but the outcome. divya weston gets to election results on the west coast tonight. there are any number of ways to slice it. my opening comment for the next 30 hours is simple. we have seen this force. this is part of america, it deeply divided america. there is nothing new about that. what is new is the social media, the cable tv concentration, the emotion in your face. it used to not be that way. maybe we can all get comfortable by milford, new hampshire, where they voted early, probably without tiktok or twitter. the last when it's time we talked about a not so peaceful transition of power in the u.s.? we talk about possible social unrest in the u.s. i was speaking to a senior banker yesterday at one of the largest swiss banks, and he said the trading floor is fully prepared overnight to see

whatever happens, they are prepared. it could become if there is a big surprise, it could be see extra so we will market checks today. tom: i was going to say with the dow, the s&p 500 up 45 points, you are correct, it is tangible, the worry about this election day and the outcome tonight and over the next number of days. and unclear as to what is priced in right now. let's get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. never been anhas election day like this one. almost 100 billion americans have already cast their ballots and they did so in the midst of the pandemic that has killed more than 230,000 people. president trump and joe biden cap their campaign with a push through states critical to deciding the outcome. the president said biden is not mentally equipped for the

office. biden called the president a disgrace. two small new hampshire communities that traditionally vote just after midnight have already tallied their ballots in the presidential election. it was a clean sweep for joe biden. five votes.own's in a slightly larger town, president trump won 16 of the 21 votes. previous terror -- the suspect was killed by police and it is not clear if he was acting alone. police made a number of arrests in grades this morning over the attack in austria. other people were wounded in the attacks. shots were fired at six different locations. prime minister boris johnson says there is no alternative to imposing a coronavirus lockdown across england. johnson revealed plans for

entire cities to be tested to root out asymptomatic carriers of the disease. lawmakers from johnson's own conservative party raise concerns about civil liberties and mental health. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. this is numbered. francine? dom? -- this is bloomberg. francine? tom? tom: i am not going to bring to forget about -- dow futures up 43. the vix comes in -- remember we were at 40, maybe even 41 -- can't remember that data point. 35.81, in a full stick right now. yields show higher, a three basis point move on the 10-year benchmark. currency markets, dollar finally ebbs away from strong dollar,

93.66 on dxy. on the currency pairs, not that much going on. even swiss franc backs up a little bit, a weaker swiss franc. investors probably beginning the week to reflect on more optimism following weeks of speculation of a contested outcome producing no clear winner for some time. i'm not sure what is priced in, but if you look at polls, they continue telling us that joe biden is ahead, though the rates remain very tight. you can see this being priced in possibly on the market. the vix is not elevated. i'm looking at pound because it is currency volatility that could happen. so we are on watch if anything happens for currency markets, as traders are bracing for these post-poll swings. in europe i'm looking at the markets up, it is really the paribasncluding bnp leading the rally in bancshares because they were more optimistic about the future. tom: our goal across the many

hours of this election coverage and into the following days is to give you good conversation. we are going to do that, starting strong with greg valliere. first, a conversation about the two candidates. mr. biden: almost 100 million have voted so far. 100 billion have voted already and more are going to vote today. pres. trump: a vote for biden is your automobile industries. mr. biden: the power to change the country is in your hands. amorrow we can put an end to president who has fanned the flames of hate across this country. pres. trump: we cannot let the sleepy guy fool us now because he happens to be a corrupt politician. mr. biden: it is time for donald trump to pack his bags and go home. pres. trump: this election comes down to a very simple choice. do you want to be ruled by the corrupt and selfless political

maniacs that you're dealing with, or do you want to be ruled by the american people? tom: interesting conversation on the final dash. to them from pennsylvania, with the president in north carolina as well. very valley i is from -- gregory valliere is from new hampshire. they kids that experience in the winners and losers of our democratic process. must-read morning note read worldwide inside the beltway. he's up way too early, but that is because he wanted to be the sixth voter at dixville notch. for our international audience, explain that you drive out of boston, you go up the connecticut river through white river junction and the rest of it, and then you go north toward your ancestors in canada. where in god's name is dixville notch? greg: it is way in the north in the mountains.

it gets notoriety once every four years. they now have four years to go before anyone talks about them again. francinee we will take up to boston so she can see autumn in its beauty in new england. devon weston will bring results to us. david westin will bring results to us tonight. mcconnell -- is he in trouble? i doubt it very much. this is going to take several days before it is resolved, several days of recount come of litigation, and in fact it could be several weeks of litigation before we get this answer. francine: there are benchmarks -- tom: there are benchmarks that you and i have studied for years. indiana,rre haute, which has voted right since 1956. they got it right since 1902. it wrong twice since

1902. are we going into the evening blind? greg: i think a lot of the old rules have been thrown out. i think we will wake up tomorrow morning not knowing for sure what happened in pennsylvania, and maybe by friday we will know. and then the lawsuits start and they will go on for weeks. francine: if you had to make a prediction, what would you expect? what would you expect in terms of when the final outcome will be known? who do you expect to be in the white house? blue i'm saying a light wave, not the title blue wave that some people are talking about. -- not the title wave people are talking about. people easy will -- he will easily win the popular vote by 5 million, 6 million, 7 million votes. the only intriguing market is the senate. i think the democrats could gain senate control by one seat, navy

even in a tie. that is not a blue wave. -- maybe even in a tie. that is not a blue wave. get a lot ofeds to people through, and i don't see that happening tonight. francine: given that you don't see pennsylvania called until friday morning, what happens in the media -- in the immediate aftermath? as a foreigner, i have to say it is pretty shocking to think of a transition of power that could not be smooth in the u.s., that could lead to rioting in the streets. greg: we could see a pretty good night for the republicans because so many democrats have already voted. i think of the 100 million voters, 60% to 70% voted for biden, but we get the makeup of that tonight. in driving through downtown d.c. yesterday, the whole city is boarded up. they are preparing for riots. tom: help me with the senate races. one of our first looks is a

gentleman from south carolina. we will see what mr. graham can do. on the east coast, do you get a flavor of the senate early, or am i going to have to wait and wait and wait until kevin cirilli wakes up and leads coverage? greg: you may have to wait until january for when you have georgia runoffs. it could take that long. just as 2020 breaks all the rules, i think it is possible the senate could wind up a tie broken by the democrats. but i don't see a tidal wave for the democrats in the senate. francine: -- tom: greg valliere with us. we will talk about policy and outcomes with him in a moment. the presidential election -- look for that tonight. david westin, really excited about what we have put together, which is conversation and perspective away from the hyperbole. speaking of that, he's is a democrat. the doctor, howard dean, will join us.

a former dnc chairman. i believe he is voting biden. at dean will join us here 6:30, an important conversation on how the democrats will lead, if and only if mr. biden takes a trophy. stay with us this election day. worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance, tom and francine from london and new york. happy election day. we look at the polls state by state, and of course we had a great conversation with greg valliere, we talked about the fact that you are expecting a light blue wave, if i said it

directly, and the fact that you can see a lot of states not being able to tell us who won in the electoral college until friday at the earliest. when you look at the national polls, what are we missing? greg: i think two things. covid, covid.vid, as donald trump says, that is a huge factor. and a lot of the things senior citizens resent his treatment of this. the other thing is what happens to the poll takers themselves. they have changed their methodology to include more non-college-educated white men -- in other words, trump supporters. they have increased their reading of trump supporters. so my production is the polls will not be office much this time as they were four years ago. francine: what can you tell us about the biggest surprise that would come under a biden administration? is it technology? the energy landscape in the

u.s.? is it china or is it stimulus? a stimulus right away -- i think the real surprise for the markets is that i might not go for big tax increases right away . i think he might worry the economy is fragile, he might not want to antagonize the markets. we will get tax hikes, but they could come later rather than sooner. i look at a lot of americans on both sides of the aisle who out of this election has said they will move abroad. you yourself have said you will hampshire, which is frightening. there are four boxes that we could come up with, but to find the gridlock that you see in march of 2021. greg: that gridlock is that there are not enough democrats in the senate to get any of biden's agenda done, and they all face a really tough decision

as they vote to kill the filibuster rule. i think biden is inherently opposed to it, but he might agree, so that gridlock might lead to institutional changes in the senate. tom: cut to the chase here right now. what is your reading of guys like wasserman and the other experts on all of this math iness? tothere a legitimate shot gain in the senate? greg: yeah, i think they could get one seat, maybe two. but his two seats enough? this is critical, because there was a report sunday night that mr. biden will keep the senator from massachusetts and the senator from vermont in the andte for senate stability, not push them but keep them out of his cabinet. is that where we are heading? thee does the -- what does

progressive left do with that? i think she stays in the senate, and i think bernie stays in the senate, not in the cabinet. so what with the cabinet look like, greg? greg: very diverse, far more diverse than this one. the focus in the industry will be on the treasury department, and there is a very brilliant, highly respected woman who is theon art -- and who is odds on favorite to be treasury secretary. francine: what does it mean for stimulus? you can call -- let's say we have a president in the next two weeks, for the sake of all this polling and this uncertainty. but it is called in the next two weeks. how quickly after january could we have a real stimulus package? greg: unfortunately, because i

think we really need a stimulus right away, it could be february before we get a stimulus bill done. it could be a big 1 -- two chilean dollars, i think maybe $3 trillion -- i think $2 trillion, i think maybe $3 trillion. we need stimulus now, and i think we are still three months away. does a biden presidency, if he becomes elected, change the way the u.s. deals with lockdown? will yes, i think that he listen to dr. fauci. i think that we will have social distancing. we will certainly have much tougher regulations on masks. i don't see the country locking down like much of europe has, but dr. fauci: plays a much bigger role in a biden administration. tom: greg, thank you so much. reg valliere from -- greg valliere, from dixville notch, new hampshire. where he could not vote this

morning. i'm kidding, folks. reg valliere is from washington. bostonor of the city of -- this is a timely conversation with a gentleman watching the election results, a gentleman looking at the legislative dynamics beneath the presidential radar. martin walsh in the 8:00 hour. please stay with us. futures up 48. the vix at 35.77. it is election day. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm ritika gupta with your bloomberg business flash. saudi aramco says third-quarter profit fell 45% from a year ago. the world set largest oil producer was hurt by lower crude prices and smaller sales volume. the worst of the coronavirus impact on energy demand may have passed. a board committee has concluded that ceo jack dorsey should stay on the job. the panel was asked to review twitter leadership as part of an agreement with activist investor , and private equity firm silver lake. s.a.p.'s ceo is trying to put a positive spin on the cup and he's slowing revenue growth. tristen klein tells bloomberg tv more clients are transitioning to cloud computing products. german software giant lost a third of its value following a forecast.

that is the latest bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much. it is the surveillance hb 12 see. a report that china will double its economic output in the next 15 years. 12c,e go to surveillance, hb gdpthe number is 4.73% growth per year. francine, that sounds doable, right? francine: it sounds doable as long as the rest of the world doesn't go through a massive downturn, something that could be possible. i have to say it will certainly have an effect of tempering volatility in renminbi with the u.s. election, so i think the timing of this is actually quite interesting. this fourthe setting, or five year plan. tom: francine has other data as well. what is important here is that

george saravelos comes out biden versus trump, and it is biden come along e.m., trump short e.m.. francine? francine: we have to look at emerging markets, for example, such as the mexican peso, but certainly it is currency markets that are saying they will post -- bracing for the post pull swing. increasedes also up, volatility, but i'm looking at european mining shares. there's -- they are up. banks are up as well. coming up, geoffrey yu. this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

adapting. innovating. setting the course. but new ways of working demand a new type of network. one that's more than just fast. you need flexibility- to work from anywhere. and manage from everywhere. advanced technology. with serious security. and reliable coverage, nationwide.

forward-thinking enterprises, deserve forward-thinking solutions. and that's what we deliver. so bounce forward, with comcast business. >> i have to begin this conversation by using the word, uncertainty. >> i am worried about the

process of a contested election and widespread unrest. >> come january 20, i am worried there is still no clear picture as to who the president is. >> reality will start to set in theresident trump wins and market will be less unenthusiastic. this guarantees a biden victory or not, i think is anyone's guess. >> election to election, the difference is not so much people changing their minds, it is who decides to turn out. >> biden in the white house gettingthe senate means stimulus through in january will be tough and this country will need it. >> there is not an exit ramp for either side. the stakes are so high, when we wake up wednesday, or further

along, half the country will find this an existential threat. guestse: some of our weighing in on the uncertainty. markets and havens. yu, first of all, are you pulling an all-nighter in case there is something ugly overnight? hoping to get three hours between putting the children to bed and when the polls close. is; howrtant thing quickly can we get a result? that will make the difference between volatility. in?cine: what is priced his volatility unexpected? -- is volatility unexpected?

priced in there is a clear outcome. swiss, safedollars haven, risk on risk off proxies, the market is saying we won't promote uncertainty. interior minnesota politics, carleton college; we will avoid that. i will ask you about where we are one year out. the debt build up worldwide. is debt and deficit extraordinary in the u.s. how does that change your calculus beyond the election? geoffry: how do you fund the

deficit? world, banks around the can they fund with relatively low real rates. look what australia did overnight. fund it with relatively low real rates. can the u.s. do that? rates start to move higher, there might be constraint. mathematics, nominal yield less inflation expectation equals residual which is inflation-adjusted real yield. yield?t to a higher real what is the thing that makes ago? geoffry: markets start to demand premium.

when you have fiscal stimulus, it needs to be credible toward tightening that outlook cap as quickly as you can, generate stable inflation. as we see bad growth/supply constraints, the market must be compensated. they will want nominal yields. net inflation rises. inflation will rise with growth. it is that credible, sustainable growth of inflation. ahead, thato gets is what the markets will be looking for. the jury is still out in the u.s. francine: how much of a stimulus package do we get under a biden presidency as opposed to a second term? it depends on the senate. what is more supportive for the markets? geoffry: what can generate good

growth? there is a view that with a biden presidency, you might get more state-level support, higher stimulus, larger size, wider scope. also, will it boost productivity? get similare if you money in infrastructure, green technology, what china is trying to do, that may be credible. let's see the process. it is not about size. it is about composition. can there be stimulus that generates productivity? democrats are saying the right thing. what happens to volatility in the exit polls tonight? risk is the balance of higher volatility into the

night. markets are pricing a clear-cut result. anything less, volatility will rise. the next phase; how long will volatility be? the next morning, 12 hours, 2004,is what happened in then it is manageable. if we are looking at days and weeks, that is a different equation. the longer the uncertainty, the more stimulus talk will be delayed. much, g: thanks so eoffry stays with us on the emerging markets, dollar dynamics. president trump and joe biden have pulled their campaigns to an end, spending the final day rallying and states crucial to deciding the outcome.

100 million americans have already voted. biden seems to have the upper hand in most wing staples. president trump is counting on heavy turnout from his supporters today. federal appeals court has denied a request from texas republicans to ban drive-thru voting in the state's most populous county. the court denied without explanation. cases all-time high in the u.s., hospitalizations rising in 44 states. wisconsin had the highest cases per capita in the past week, the seven day average cases at records in michigan and iowa. has strengthened into one of the atlantic's most powerful storms of the year, going toward central america with wind of 150 mph.

category four storm expected to cause storm surge and flash floods. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake from bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. thanks. futures advance, up 47. tonight, our 2020 election coverage, lawrence summers joins, yes, the gentleman from harvard, on the fiscal and monetary path forward for this political nation. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning.

we welcome you worldwide, early morning america. francine lacqua in london. tom keene in new york. we are focused on america, election coverage 7 p.m. tonight, really through the entire day. offry yunversation, ge leads with that in pulling together the strands. currency aslk about litmus paper and the dynamic is without question, dollar. some of those question the future of the dollar. up dalio was talking renminbi down the road, exorbitant privilege. do you buy it? geoffry: somewhere in between.

the dollar will be difficult to displace as a dominant reserve currency. will almoste, it certainly be the dominant reserve currency internationally. it does not mean there cannot be alternatives. renminbi is one of the best candidates. ago, china released to the next five-year plan. tom: come on! i just did the math on the old hp12c. years4.7% per year for 15 to double the economy. that is not a big reach. geoffry: the fundamental issue is does china want the rest of the world to own renminbi, to start owning china

government bonds? they have not figured that out. if the rest of the world owns it, they can sell it. will that kind of volatility, which china is not used to, will they welcome that? we are heading toward a multipolar world. the dollar will be around for some time. renminbi, how does this swing after the election depending on the outcome or what the exit polls tell us? how quickly can china and renminbi become a true reserve currency? geoffry: the knee-jerk reaction is if trump surprises, renminbi long will be taken off. maybe it is a good entry-level. matter what the outcome of this election is, is

about focusing on the internal economy, domestic demand. that is where the difference will be made. years,e next 5-15 renminbi usage, ownership of chinese assets and bonds, look at the reason ipo, that will arrive. china should not force the issue. for now, it will be more of a hybrid step. everything in between. renminbi, sold aggressively on the back burner of whatever happens today. francine: are we too optimistic about china? the report coming out now, president xi said the chinese economy is great but it is dependent on worldwide consumption. if we have more infections in europe, the u.s. and the world, this will impact china negatively. aware.: china is well

they are accelerating investment plans for domestic consumption. they are at risk. the global economy being stagnant, we need to realize the bigger risk is domestic demographics. i am not sure if the results would be a good reading. they need to focus productivity on potential growth. and i aml question sure you will never come on again. what is your equity view? small-cap,s we move to international and em does better. rotation, whether it is away from growth to value.

ultimately, it is pro productivity rather than progrowth. tech, theture, stimulus up ahead, investments toward productivity, those are the areas i want to be in, green, infrastructure, new tech, that will be the focus in the u.s. and globally. francine: thanks so much. more on lockdowns in europe and the recovery fund. irish financer and euro group president. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with your bloomberg business flash. its relationship with intel next week. their processors will be

designed by apple for the first time. shares of paypal falling. the company lowered its four-year revenue forecast. growth has slowed from the blistering pace of the first half of the year. paypal has been a big winner during the pandemic. containing fallout roundup.n tois far enough along realize the expense will be higher than anticipated in june. tom: the house of years,ntatives every two every chair up for grabs in the senate, one third of the senate goes every two years, over a

six-year term they rotate, too, too, to. o. jack, the guardian comes up with 35 races, saying seven are close. lean is that whole thing; and toss up. senate majority leader mcconnell? schumer? which races? jack: democrats are feeling good. they remember 2016, when the polls in key states were wrong. if joe biden at the top of the ticket has the strength and he wins, they expect to have the senate coming their way, even with narrow numbers. doug jones in alabama will probably lose which means democrats have to pick up 4 seats overall but colorado,

arizona and maine are looking good for democrats. very bad for republican incumbents. you have numbers, two in georgia, one in iowa, montana is close, south carolina is competitive, where if they pick up one of any of those, it would give them 50-50 with a tiebreaker and a vice president. tom: measure the coattails. jack: the key states are looking good for biden, at least competitive. in some cases, down ballot democrats are outperforming. arizona, mark kelly is consistently ahead of joe biden. it is possible to see democrats pick up that senate seat and biden lose the state. there are a number of moderates performing well, probably helped by the biden candidacy. they don't have to respond to

on someone like bernie sanders but are doing quite well on their own. worry aboutould we the polls being wrong? jack: it is possible they could be wrong. i'm not saying this is absolutely done and the cake is baked. one state to look closely at is pennsylvania. i checked the real clear politics pulling average, 2.6% lead, joe biden. off ande polls were donald trump over performed by exactly that amount. country, thess the polls would have to be a little bit more wrong than they were in 2016 for trump to have a clear

path to victory. looking at pictures from washington. shops of every nature trying to board up in case of riots. who would riot? jack: a lot of places being boarded up, even outside of downtown. expectationnding has been looking at the way things went this summer, for winple, if biden were to the popular vote but lose the electoral college, that could cause some concerns. i'm not sure there are concerns with a specific outcome as much as things have been pretty crazy in d.c. for the year. the anxietyo expect

boils over. tom: does the president have coattails? ernst want his support? jack: typically, yes. a number of these members including martha mcsally, who appears to be behind in arizona, have wanted help. there was an incident a few days ago during a rally when trump was dismissive of martha mcsally and did not give her the time republicans wanted. if you are in on the trump presidency, you are in for a penny or a pound. there are not many members who don't want his help, even if his current standing has not helped so far. tom: thank you so much. data check. futures up 44.

the vix is sticky at 36.02. that gets my attention. points,three basis .87%. we will have to watch the dynamics and the fixed income markets. 71 basis points. 8.49,h lira beyond ugly, and norma's weakness over the last five days. in our next hour, on the state of america, of future investment, edward. this is bloomberg. ♪

day evidentection

people care. 98 million have voted coast-to-coast. long lines anticipated. there is a pandemic. there is deep economic anxiety. cities anda, farmland inseparable. job stake in weight. dr. fauci says after the election look for "a whole lot of hurt." good morning everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" from new york and london on election day in america. what does it look like from london? a number of u.k. newspapers looking at how much the u.s. election