tom: good morning, everyone. around this world, francine lacqua, tom keene, election 2020, and it is late this evening, much later than it was in 2016. across america, there are undecided outcomes in the house, the senate still undecided, very different than what was expected, and the great battle between mr. trump and mr. biden in the coming hours, indeed, possibly the coupl coming days,

the careful counting of every ballot. mr. biden asks for every ballot to be counted, mr. trump says he will go to the supreme court. good morning. the news flowing every hour. francine lacqua, it is pretty much as we expected, and we have not only seen the political results but the market gyrations in the last 24 hours. francine: tom, there are two outcomes the markets were fearful about, and those outcomes can much more possible in the last 24 hours. first, the joe biden presidency with a republican senate. we could have that. it is still mathematically possible. the other one, of course come a very contested election. if you listen to what president trump said about an hour and 10 minutes ago, it is very clear that he wanted to go to the supreme court, ask that the supreme court step in, because -- unclear why, tom, because we are still counting votes. there is absolutely no evidence

that something has been done wrong, but certainly fighting words from president trump, and that will put the markets on edge. tom: we welcome you all worldwide, markets and the green pure and the nasdaq a little bit better, a huge tech surge coming off what first looked like a trump wave, and that has reversed nicely. let us listen to the two candidates in the last hour. pres. trump: we will be going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. anyon't want them to find ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list. we will end this. mr. biden: we believe we are on wisconsin and michigan. way, it is going to take time to count the votes. we are going to win pennsylvania! tom: really quite something to see come and i cannot emphasize

enough the originality in this moment, for the nation, you go back to 1888, grover cleveland losing to harrison and what was an incredibly close election, and of course 1960 as well. with futures up 19, i want to step away from the markets right now. yields, yes, they moved income other than that, it is turning, waiting to see the news workout. i am working bankers hours, they are working political hours. kevin cirilli come our chief washington correspondent come of course providing huge value, rick davis, republican perspective, who served with senator john mccain. i want to go to one thing, kevin, that i saw from chip at the "new york times," 13,000 mail-in ballots in erie, pennsylvania, the ratio was 5-1 biden.

does april like you assume that all the mail-in ballots will have a start ratio like that? kevin: well, every county was a county that was flipped in 2016, that trump was able to beat hillary clinton in that obama carried, so erie county incredibly important, and the data that has come in from the early mail-in ballots have suggested that typically democrats were trending to have cast their early votes in advance, compared to republicans. just within the last half-hour, though, the biden campaign releasing a statement, "president trump's statement was outrageous and unprecedented," but i can tell you from my own reporting is that president trump might leave washington, d.c. in the next couple of days, tom. you can expect to see him back in battleground states, like pennsylvania, like north carolina -- we still don't have a result. georgia come another key battleground state, michigan,

wisconsin. all of these types of dynamics now as we head into overtime, essentially, for lack of a better phrase. both of the campaigns will be meeting with their legal teams, and this is reminiscent of 2000. i would say this -- if you are trying to figure out where this thing is going, for how long this could take, in 2000, it took until december 12 of 2004 the supreme court to issue a ruling. so while we might wait a couple of days to get a result in the battlegrounds, tom, like in erie county, it could take a couple of weeks for it to make its way through the courts. francine: rick davis, when you look at the latest electoral vote count -- and i am looking to make sure i have the latest 238, trump 213. we are expecting the account in michigan, georgia, to take a little bit of time. is it all at play now, or do you

have a hunch of who could become president?? rick: i think both of these candidates could become president today. right now, donald trump leads in georgia and north carolina. all four of those states have not been officially called, but they probably get divided up, which means the winner of this win two of the three miss white -- midwestern states up for grabs. this is a tight race in the electoral college, they have been tight race is inside the states, and even the national numbers are not that far apart. race,s is a pretty close and it is far from being over. there are millions of votes in key battleground states that have not been counted yet. start with mr. davis, because he is better looking than us and kevin cirilli. would say that the president is doing better in the

national popular vote than he did four years ago, he took 46.1 percent, final count, and now he has 48.5%. that may come down a little bit, but can you state that mr. trump has done better this time around, with a national vote, than last time? rick: yeah, and i think in this case, everybody voting floats all the boats. in other words, we have had a massive voter turnout today, and it has been building over the last month with these early votes. so what you are seeing is people who have not voted in two presidential elections, three presidential elections came out and voted in this one, and that help donald trump it helped improve his numbers with voters areas,r, people in urban votes that he did not get last time, but it also helps support joe biden's race, and joe biden over performed with the elderly, which allowed him to compete in places like arizona so well. tom: with kevin, i am going to go to nevada. i know you have been covering

that. aaron kessler reported for bloomberg. 67% counted. 1.5 7 million early balance. they have the same 1.0 9 million counted so far, and just 30,000 between the two candidates. that really shows, kevin, the tension of these mail-in ballots, isn't it? kevin: it is harry reid versus sheldon adelson and clark county , where, just specifically, overwhelmingly, that state's population, where las vegas will be so incredibly important to turn out there. i would bring out the senate spread, tom, in particular, because regardless of -- what we know this morning is that the senate is going to be much more close. we do not know the precise numbers. we actually will not know the precise tally because of the runoff until early january, but what we do know is that people

like senator joni ernst won. she is the republican incumbent in iowa. steve gaines in montana, a he won.an incumbent, lindsey graham was able to win his seat in south carolina. defeatingark kelly republican senator martha mccann sally -- martha mcsally. trending too far to the left as of now could we still come of course, have a handful of seeds remaining. kevin, what happened in florida, and what happened to the latino vote? catholicll, cuban and americans clearly vote for president trump, and the dynamics of the hispanic vote, as republicans have said for quite some time, is not a monolithic community, and that was on display with regards to florida. the president was also able to perform well in the more inland

parts of the state. he was also able to make some inroads, quite frankly, with senior citizens, a constituency that joe biden has been trending for for quite some time here state for must-win president trump, and if you did not win florida, we would not be having any -- if he did not win florida, we would not be having any of these conversations are his path to 270 still exists. francine: rick, so, you know, president trump has that he wants the supreme court to step in. what would he ask them to step in on? he will probably resurrect a case that was brought to the supreme court last week, originally from pennsylvania, but likely would include north carolina and a couple of other states, and what that was was a request to not kil count ballots that arrived after election day, in other words, you mailed it, there was a delay in getting it there, and it arrived on the fourth or fifth.

the supreme court chose not to hear that case. now, they also said if it becomes a problem, bring it back to us, so there is no doubt that donald trump is going to bring that case back to them. the reality is it does not stop the counting of the votes that are already underway in any of those states, but it would actually put into play any of those votes that came in after the election. the reality is that that is usually a very small amount compared to the seven or eight or 10 million ballots that will be counted as part of the normal election day activities. tom: rick davis, michael grimm bomb over at "the times," chris wallace at fox was involved in the first debate as well. here is mr. wallace, "this is an extremely flammable situation, and the president just threw a match into it. he has not won those states. rick davis, these are the comments made an hour ago by the

president. withinvis, how republican politics is the president right now? rick: you will see a lot of distancing from officials in the republican who are still at risk in this election. as kevin cirilli pointed out, there are a number of senate races that have not been finalized. veryd trump staking out a lonely position, but it is a place he knows well. he has gone it alone as president since the day he was elected. he really does not care about other people's attitudes, relevant to his actions, and he will prosecute what he can to try to preserve power for himself, and the rest of the party sort of be damned in the process. francine: thank you both are to our chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli and bloomberg contributor rick davis. tom, we will also look at the polls, what they are telling us.

i have seen some analysis actually predicting this very outcome. we will have to see what the margin of error was. coming up next, we will speak with mark, ubs global chief investor. we will put the market in context -- we will put the election in context for the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. we are following election coverage, president trump has claimed victory, saying he will go to the supreme court. joe biden saying he still has

hopes. biden then of course winning arizona, the first state he has flipped from president trump. there is a bit of movement on the treasury. i also wanted to show you what is happening with the renminbi two currencies that could move the most on the back of a trump presidency win, if he gets another four years. i want to talk about the reinert tweet, "trump claiming victory this early is like disembarking which we do not recommend." haefele,s is mark global chief investment officer at ubs. the market driving a sentiment they did not want to see come a very contested election, which we could have, or a joe biden presidency with a republican senate. what is the mood of the market right now? mark: well, look, i think if you take one step back from this

historic and very interesting race, which looks like it is all about the path to the electoral college, really what the market theocused on is the path to covid recovery, and, you know, it looks like, when you look at futures, the way the nasdaq is trading up in the russell is trading down, the way treasuries are moving, it looks like there is still a lot of faith that banks support will continue to support risk assets, but that the recovery could be a little slower, and so the stay-at-home trade might be working a little better than some of the more cyclical stocks right now. do,cine: what do you though, if you focus on the election come what do you do with renminbi and other emerging currencies, such as the mexican peso? i think that right now, we are getting this dollar safety trade, but we really think come over the medium term, that will start to abate,

because the dynamics in the united states and the recovery path for the united states are such that we think that, you know, china is a winner here. they are on a recovery path, and also, europe is going to be stronger. will look context, we to fade certain -- overtime especially -- some of the dollar strength we are seeing. francine: mark, if we have a joe biden president with a republican senate, does it mean that we may get very little stimulus, you know, if any at all? mark: i think that is one of the things that the market is looking at here, is less stimulus than we would have had to molest fiscal stimulus than -- less fiscal stimulus then we would have had, so that is one of the factors that is

playing in here. all of that is based on -- we thought that the campaigns were likely to do, so this is going to play out much more on what kind of a stimulus bill could get through, given whatever with.that we end up tom: mark, as we move through this process, we have to look at the overall economy and the debt buildup that we see. we do not know what the stimulus will become a etc., but have you guys changed your view for 2021, or aren electoral gas, you frozen as an institution until you see the outcome? kailey: i would say -- mark: i would say that the medium-term picture has not changed all that much. it is rare that an election in and of itself matters so much for what the markets are doing

in a global sweep of the economy, and, you know, it looks like that is going to be less of a chance now, but when you look out to the middle of the year, we are looking at a world that is more digital, that is more local, and the world overall is one that is moving more towards sustainable assets. so in that picture, things have not changed that much. the debt dynamic is not going to change, however, this outcome plays out, and therefore, that is one of the reasons, if you are concerned about the debt side of the equation, that is why a dollar weakness is something to play into next year. tom: mark, thank you so much, mark haefele with us, from ubs wealth management, a relatively short visit this morning. we have got much more coming up, dovetailing markets into the movable piece of political news we see from america. joyce chang of jp morgan will join us, chair of global research. we will do that at 5:30 new york time.

red and green on the screen. nasdaq 100 up 2.6%. stay with us, election 2020. ♪ election 2020. ♪

tom: we continue our coverage of the american election. francine lacqua and tom keene, a quick data check here, and we will get back to more good conversation. yields move, curve flattening, and there is a broader real yield, a deeper, negative yield.

i notice as well, francine, the german 10-year yield has worked down a more recent, larger, negative yield. it is off the radar, but to me, that is important. red and green on the screen. nasdaq 100 with that huge serve, what was it, i lost track of time, 12 hours ago, a pullback, and nasdaq 100 showing a huge movement versus a flat dow jones industrial average. one other thing, francine, know you want to comment on, oil with a lift two days in a row. francine: actually what i picked out this morning are two currencies that can really move. i know a lot has been baked in, a lot has been priced in, but i want to show you the renminbi and the mexican peso. they could move if we have president trump for another four years, and just in general, tom, if you look at, you know, the two election scenarios i could actually haunt the market, and we have been talking about it

for quite some time, is a contested election, or a joe biden presidency with a republican senate. these are two things that look more likely that we need to keep an eye on. we look at states where we can vote file or taken while, tempting for the moment, the electoral college so far, biden still seems to be safer, but of course, it is very close. coming up on "bloomberg surveillance," we speak with david herro, harris associates chief investment officer. i am looking forward to that interview, coming up one hour from now, 6:30 a.m. in new york, 11:30 a.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ don. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance.

here is the latest on the u.s. election. democrat joe biden has won the usual republican state of arizona. he has a small lead in the electoral college, but there are still key battlegrounds yet to announce. president trump has won the swing states of florida, ohio, and held onto texas. pennsylvania may not report final results for days. biden is optimistic and confident of a victory. on biden: we believe we are track to win this election. we are feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan. way, it's going to take time to count the votes. we're going to win pennsylvania. francine: president trump is already claiming victory, despite key races still to be called. he also says he will go to the supreme court. pres. trump: this is a fraud on the american public. this is an embarrassment to our country. we were getting ready to win

this election. frankly, we did win this election. [cheers] our goal now is to ensure the integrity, for the good of this nation. we will be going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. we don't want them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list. democrats look set to maintain control of the house. several vulnerable republicans are holding onto their seats. turning us is lindsay newman, an independent analyst at formerly chatham house. when you look at the electoral college votes, the number of states that still have to count the votes -- and that will take a couple of days -- those joe biden still have a slight edge right now? >> joe biden is ahead.

at 238-213 two trump. they both have pathways to the 270 number. in keyrailing battleground states, but the voting is still -- we are potentially in that red garage state. we don't know. we are going to be looking at areas of each of those states that are more likely to have voted democrat. francine: what is the lesson? are the polls wrong? a lot of announcements addicted this outcome, initially a red wave, and then as we count a lot of the people that send in the ballots by mail, it could possibly turn the fortunes of joe biden. lindsay: there will be a ton of forensics over that -- over the

next couple of days and weeks over areas in which they let us down potentially, as they didn't when he 16. for me one of the takeaways is that we are still vulnerable to what the polls are telling us. it was clear that the democrats should sweep both chambers of commerce -- congress as well as the presidency. headline is that we are not seeing a landslide for the democrats or for president trump. december 13, -- tom: on december 13, i read "bush versus gore." can you imagine how the federal courts, the circuit court, or the u.s. supreme court will process or act at this political moment? lindsay: i thought you might ask me something about verse -- about bush v gore.

what we saw president trump say in his overnight address to the nation, we are talking about stopping the counting of votes. votes have yet to be counted in first instance, so we are not in bush vicor territory yet. gore territory yet. not just across the supreme court but across the federal bench as they have had hundreds of conservative judges appointed successfully. what we have seen so far is that there has been a very mixed result around these efforts from conservatives to curve and --tail mail-in ballot a mail-in ballot inc., and absentee balloting, and the through-line through the supreme court, not just bush v gore but through other presidents, how they can conduct and count

elections. i don't mean to cut you off, i thought you were done. everybody is tired. i think what is important in the texas supreme court of a few days ago, things move quickly. do you assume that if there is a legal process it will be at relatively the lightspeed? benchmarksere are about when the electoral college voters will meet in december, that the next president has to be inaugurated. there will be swift assessments and judiciary rulings around anything related to this particular vote. sort of larger questions around voting practice for years to come. i'm looking at the press and the experts weighing in on the polls and not the

polls. one thing seems clear. a lot of who voted by mail were overwhelmingly democrats. if that is the case, is it more likely that some of these key battlegrounds that we are waiting for -- the three and four that if we don't know who it will go to -- will most likely go to joe biden, or is it impossible to call? lindsay: i would say it is too early to call. toward nevada is leading vice president biden. if he secures nevada, he just needs wisconsin -- he needs either georgia, michigan, or wisconsin. he wouldn't even need pennsylvania, although i'm sure he would love to have it. there waiting to see if was this red mirage. the early tally as we know is that democrats used mail-in voting more than republicans did. when the vote count comes through, it remains to be seen whether those states that are

currently leading red, currently leading towards trump, michigan, wisconsin, north carolina, pennsylvania -- are they going to switch? that is the question be made to have the answer to even today. a lot of the states are trying to count quickly, but this may be a couple of days before we have a full, clear victor on these outcomes. tom: lindsay newman, thank you for joining us this morning. really appreciate you the perspective. the market is one of the litmus paper is in the news flow here, and we have seen a decisive turn with futures green, s&p futures up 46, dow futures all of a sudden up 148, nasdaq 100 puts it on again. a solid 3% move. the yield space, yields churning, with the vix equity measurement off xp x, 33.71. coming up on bloomberg surveillance, let us get the

perspective on the pentagon and our military worldwide. -- jameset us will stavridis will join us. stay with this is bloomberg. us. -- stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning, everyone. election 2020. throughout the morning we will be giving you the results, the worldwide impact. we have seen an abrupt shift. francine, what do you identify the reason as the shift? thee nasdaq on a chair and yield space moves in a little

bit. what is the speculation you see from london? francine: let's be very careful because again, they are counting ballots. a lot of these states will take days to have the final numbers. the chatter that is filtering through the market is basically -- on twitter, one was a pollster, and the other one is nate cohen of the new york times. i'm sorry if it is confusing, but is nate silver and nate cohen -- that nate cohen says based on what he has been saying, he says people have not fully internalized how democratic these mail-in and absentee ballots in michigan and wisconsin, so he believes that it is going to be close but that joe biden could get the presidency. certainly that is the chatter, that there were so many mail-in ballot that take a bit longer to fully count them when you go in

person to vote, that it could give a slight advantage to joe biden. we will have to wait and see. that is the mood or the feeling. tom: and the mood there. i cannot convey the volatility and the equity futures. the dow is just slams to a -13, so huge swings here in the equity market. i do want to point out to francine's epic weight -- great -- francine's great perspective, you're talking about 13,000 mail-in ballot that were 5-1 for the democratic candidate. that will be the perspective. kevin cirilli nailed it by saying his focus was on wisconsin. in phoenix, arizona, oh edward ludlow, working in san francisco. he is looking north in nevada as well. nevada is still very much up for grabs, isn't it? , with 67% of the vote, biden has a small lead, but this

is one of the states where we could be waiting days, and in particular, counties have november 10 to receive -- until november 10 to receive ballots. have days,saying we weeks. it could be a week before you get it. tom: the mail-in ballot debate, and las vegas with a different back-and-forth of a republican heritage and the democratic las vegas unions and that, let's keep it simple here, ed ludlow. the basic idea of nevada is they have got to count mail-in ballots. do you assume that they are union ballots from las vegas, or is a mystery what they are? ed: they are mail-in ballots. yesterday asy but well, they have until november 10 to receive them. even if they are dated on

election day. they have until november 12 to count them. the communication has been very clear from nevada, that you have to wait to get a result out of us. ed, how long can we wait? are we talking days? weeks, even months? the briefing is that it will be the case of up to a week. i don't think anyone is suggesting that we will be waiting weeks and weeks. they have already made some progress in counting. there are about a million mail-in votes, but the process is underway. they want to count every single ballot. november 10 to receive them, november 12 to count them. francine: looking at arizona, too soon to say, the mail-in ballots that they voted for, can you break down, for example, the kind of people that voted for a democratic president versus the kind of people that voted for

president trump? early mail in and in person ballots were skewed towards democrats, and republicans were hoping for a surge of votes on election day to make up ground. areareater phoenix metro for some time, there is a growing latino population here in arizona. it is white, middle income, college-educated women who voted for trump and 2016, but could not have voted for him this time onund on policy, but also personality. they have also done well in the independent vote here in arizona. if you think back to republicans over years passed, john mccain -- ifthe l best example you look at the senate race in arizona, a democrat, former astronaut, mark kelly, has done very well to position himself as

a centrist. talking about his ability to work across the aisle. as it stands, based on the votes we have out of arizona, arizona will have two democratic thetors that are -- since 1950's. francine: ed ludlow in phoenix, arizona. maybe it is a good time to take stock in the market. we have updates from the associated press. i'm looking at them on my bloomberg screen, that they have biden outfront in wisconsin, a little less than 9000 votes there. if you look at market dynamics, this is probably one of the most interesting things that we could be seeing. if there was a senate held by republicans but a democratic president, is this a good thing for the markets or a bad thing? that is the question we have to ask ourselves. on the one hand, it means there is not much regulation coming. it could also mean that there is

no reversal of tax cuts, but then you could not see a fiscal stimulus on the side that certain people have been waiting for. tom: for the international audience, i think you are right. the gyration in futures, i think i'm right in saying i have never seen the gyrations in the dow futures that we are seeing. paper that wetmus have. what i would suggest that is so important here is the mystery over the mail-in ballots, and we are beginning to learn those ratios, and the pros like kevin cirilli are calculating to see if biden lifts, and that is really where we are on the slate election night. moment,: again, for the it is not confirmed, but i have been reading and checking on a number of sources that understand this better than anyone here in europe, and it could really be a democratic tilt of the vote coming in

through mail, the early voting, so it is something we need to keep an eye on, and maybe that is something that they need to be keeping on the back of. our is ap reports, and ap has not reported any decisions in these closely contested races. people are looking at the dynamics, the mystery, if you will, of the original election, which is the mail-in ballots. nextine: coming up in the hour, leslie vinjamuri. i know that she will be great. of course with everything to do with the mail-in ballots. we will talk wisconsin, we will talk michigan, and we will talk pennsylvania. that is coming up shortly, and this is bloomberg.

and mosts in 2020, curious, and most original election, as francine lacqua mentioned in london. we are looking at which states are undecided. the future is hugely volatile. dow futures now up 50 points.

they were read on the screen when we went to break. nasdaq 100 as well. and off the tweets we see off the new york times as well -- nate cohen says reminiscent of 2016. that is a good segue, talking to a market expert, mark cudmore joins us live from singapore. have tattooed to your brain the nine days down in 2016, the lift off from all of your market coverage and expertise. did we see a lift off start two days ago? >> i'm not sure i reached that conclusion. there is price action this morning. at the start of the day it was very -- even futures were trading with a positive correlation to biden's chance at the presidency for the but later as his chances seemed to slump and there was good news for trump, it is like they switched itir vote for trump and then

reacted to trumps's chances. now as it has become a tight election, trading pretty resiliently no matter what. that said, i don't think this is they start of a bigger liftoff. i think people forget that in 2016, global growth was clearly surging despite the fact that the market has been trading pessimistically for three months. everybody was distracted by the election. as soon as the election was out of, they back -- they got back timethe bullish -- this around come after the election is out of the way, we are going to focus on that growth forecasts are going to be downgraded because of coronavirus. tom: we have been talking about wisconsin and the speculation there. luber reports georgia, north carolina, too close to call -- bloomberg reports georgia, north carolina, too close to call. that is from the associated press. odds of president staying the next four years have

fallen. the bettingahead, odds, but it has fallen from 70% to 56%. how will the market take it if we have a joe biden presidency but a republican senate? what does that mean for regulation, for fiscal stimulus, and what does it mean for taxes? people werek most saying before the election that this would be a bad outcome because it would be a problem for stimulus. but i think that is a short-term issue. longer-term, people will focus on what it means for tax relation -- tax regulation. there has been this theory in the past that a divided or gridlocked government is not necessarily a bad thing for stocks. at that was a different world when we did not need rapid action from the government to n economy. i do think the market will look more negatively on that if we do get that outcome.

it is very far from certain, with a biden presidency and eight republican senate and a democratic house. there is a lot of trading and volatility to come between now and next week. tom: i look at the volatility that has come in in the next week, and that says to me opportunity. where is the opportunity across asset classes? what is the consensus you see in street research? mark: as you say, volatility is always opportunity. it is not a great time for the investor, it is a great time to be a traitor. if you are looking at the person au are -- are you trading on two-day at horizon? a one-day horizon? we are seeing overshoot. on a risk reward basis, i think fx is where it is the most interesting. we have seen some very clear moves with less noise. at the moment, that is a dollar that has bid up because there

was a real complacency that the dollar would fall no matter what outcome. win, is never a heads you tails you lose environment in the markets. that is why we are seeing dollar strength today. fx is where the best risk rewards are, but there may be excitement in treasuries as well. the fed killed that market with massive q. week, and very -- with massive qe, and strong forward guidance. for mark cudmore, thank you the update from singapore. it is an extraordinary election. wisconsin, by doing better. next, wendy schiller from brown. stay with us. ♪

andcine: good morning welcome to bloomberg surveillance. francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. the election outcome still unknown as the ballot counting continues. trump has falsely claimed victory. he wants the court to stop the count. biden urged patients, confident he will win. -- biden urged patience, confidence he will win. biden 238, trump 213. toexpect possibly wisconsin come shortly. tom: it will be interesting, election 2020. a real international focus. the ramifications -- i cannot convey enough -- cannot find words for the volatility we are seeing in the markets. futures up 19, the dow is red and green, all over the place, with a persistent nasdaq lift as well. there is a lot going on. we are going to get to wisconsin in a moment with greg