and welcome to bloomberg surveillance. francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. the election outcome still unknown as the ballot counting continues. trump has falsely claimed victory. he wants the court to stop the count. biden urged patients, confident he will win. -- biden urged patience, confidence he will win. biden 238, trump 213. toexpect possibly wisconsin come shortly. tom: it will be interesting, election 2020. a real international focus. the ramifications -- i cannot convey enough -- cannot find words for the volatility we are seeing in the markets. futures up 19, the dow is red and green, all over the place, with a persistent nasdaq lift as well. there is a lot going on. we are going to get to wisconsin in a moment with greg jarreau.

let's listen to the candidates first. trump: we already have one. mr. biden: we believe we are on track to win this election. we won states would not expect to win. florida, we won by a lot. mr. biden: we are going to win pennsylvania. pres. trump: we are going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. mr. biden: we have to be patient until the hard work of tallying the votes is finished. tom: that was 90 minutes ago, maybe two hours ago. greg jarreau with us, truly an expert on elections. we could have six conversations with him this morning. kevin cirilli told me three days ago go to wisconsin, and he of course was right. milwaukee,ll of

169,000 ballots has shifted the tone as well. does a pro like you right now have any understanding of the mail-in ballots that remain in green bay, the mail-in ballots in georgia, pennsylvania, and the rest, or are we blind until we see them? greg: in some states it is hard to say how many votes are outstanding. michigan still has a lot of votes to count in some big population areas like wayne -- it isome detroit, hard to say how many votes are left, but in wisconsin we had a big batch of absentee votes in milwaukee that put biden slightly ahead in wisconsin. he should get a boost out of kenosha and green bay. the question is how many outstanding ballots are in republican leaning areas. that is why wisconsin is too close to call right now. justine: i think joe biden

went favored in the betting markets. i want to temper expectations. this seems like a massive move that happened three or four minutes ago. can we say with some certainty, that the mail-in ballots, the early voting was overwhelming for the democratic candidate? westerne upper missed -- the upper midwest and states were looking at -- we are looking at, what we strong -- what we saw was a strong republican vote on election day, and then mail-in ballots will be counted later this morning at the rest of the week, and they will trend strongly democratic. we saw that with biden overtaking trump in wisconsin by a narrow margin. ofhigan, there are a lot pro-biden votes still out there, and a lot of votes to be counted in pennsylvania. wisconsin, biden was -- biden pulling ahead was a good sign for him. tom: a less than 10,000 vote difference in wisconsin. visitarreau, too short a

to speak with you. watching in real time, vice president biden, 49 .3%, the president 49% in wisconsin. another candidate makes up the difference. 37,000 votes for her. in the delta, only about 10,000 votes. wendy schiller of brown university, one of our great historians on elections and also in the present tense as well. is this going to be about third-party candidates getting in the way of razor thin margins? could be that,it but it could also be not great .urnout we know that african-american turnout might not have hit that magic 64%. also fewer defections from seniors. they stucke that

with republicans with the pulling all along indicating that they might go to democrats, voting more for biden than for trump. there could be a combination of things going on here, but it could just be if trump emerges to be reelected that he managed to get his coalition to get out the door and stick with him and bring on some new voters that the democrats did not have a target or mist, and that biden's coalition did not come out with enough force to give him a victory. tom: i know donna show layla losing down in -- donna show layla losing down -- to talk about mr. biden's core constituency, what would you identify as tonight? is it truly about the suburbs? looks to be that if he can pull this out and win, it will be the suburbs. he will probably win it in the suburbs that give him the ultimate victory, particularly in the midwestern states. george w. bush did very well

with latinos. mitt romney did pretty well with latinos. not great, but 29% or 30 percent. it looks like trump might exceed that. i think that is where the biden campaign probably missed its mark the most. you see that in the votto and in florida. it just looks like the biden campaign did not do what it had to do in that community, just to stay competitive with some of the previous democratic candidates. before i ask you a question, i want to bring everyone up to date with some of the latest vetting that we saw. it was interesting to speak with mark cudmore, saying that the twitter accounts that we follow, looking at electoral maps, maybe what the market is following is the betting odds, and he did say that biden went to the favorite, briefly, but now there is a narrow victory by president trump. when you look at how close --

mathematically at some point we will have a president, at race is so close. how contested will this be? how ugly will this be? what will the supreme court have to decide on? questionis is the mark. margin inby a narrow 2016, in michigan with less than 11,000 votes. for a guy who won by razor thin margins come if biden wins by richard -- razor thin margins, it will be a difficult public campaign for trump to make. perhaps amid voting irregularities. do you stop counting before all the ballots are counted? president, it looks like he is going to win, so even if the votes are counted it looks like he pre-much will win. why insert this controversy into this so soon into the game?

this puts the republicans in a bad spot i think. francine: going back to what you are saying with the latino vote, that it is very diverse and very different, does the single attribute of president trump joe biden and his campaign socialists, could that have won a big pocket of that faction for him? wendy: i think there are two different things. the socialist moniker in areas -- fromot of latinos in latin america, in particular, venezuelans, cubans, i think .hat is a tilt invite and you have a lot of latinos, but you also have the hospitality industry in the gaming industry that is crushed right now because of restrictions due to covid. so if you think about your livelihood in which president is likely to open up the economy, trump has always done better in then biden, months

even at the very end. work int industry you and depending on what state you live in, that may have tilted you back to trump. , insulting a mistake all the people in wisconsin when i mentioned michigan there, at one point. it is definitely wisconsin that we are focused on right now as well. absentee, wisconsin, ballot results, they are delayed. one of the vote counting machines literally ran out of ink. i can tell you i have a family member in new york. they had exactly the same problem in a new york precinct about seven hours ago, where they literally ran out of ink. i guess that can happen to the machines. --ncine, from london professor schiller, one final question if i may. about well know, it is

negative votes. do you know now, or when will you know where they said i am never going to vote for biden or i'm never going to vote for trump? wendy: i think it is something called negative partisanship, which is what you're talking about, which is i am never going to vote for the other side. intenses counting on negativity toward trump, and positivescounting on from his base. that is the lesson of this campaign, and the democrats will have to regroup and think about what they are going to do in 2024. this is a narrow victory, and trump does not really have a mandate. he did not really run on much policy to begin with, but he doesn't have a mandate. that is going to be a complicated governing situation for the president and the republicans at the national level going forward.

tom: it is going to be a complicated set of hours and days. wendy schiller, thank you for joining us, in the very early rhode island morning. we are looking at the flighting us of the futures. it is extraordinary. we have the curve flattening, indicating a dampening of the market. givingman 10 year yield me some new lows, some real negative tone, an ever more negative tone on the german 10-year yield. we are looking at the politics. much more to come on these important stats -- states, and good conversation. leslie vinjamuri will join us from chatham house come on wisconsin come on america. stay tuned with us on election 2020. 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance, tom and francine from london and new york. this is also our u.s. election special 2020. turning us is leslie vinjamuri with much-needed perspective, from chatham house. i know you have been up for most of the night. looking at the electoral college and the number of votes counted -- and for the moment it is too close to call, the outcome still unknown -- but what has surprised you the most? can we safely say that the votes that came in by mail were overwhelmingly for the democrats? does that mean that joe biden has an advantage right now? what everybody who follows this very carefully at the highest level has told

us. they have been telling us this for a very long time. what surprises me most, we have heard this for weeks, and yet on the night, on the morning, people still have a hard time absorbing it and waiting for the result. we have to wait for wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. we have known for a very long time that the mail-in ballots would take more time to count. they only began in pennsylvania counting on the -- counting on election day. we have known more democrats are likely to be voting by mail-in ballot a. we know there has been a store near it turned out across the united states, that there are more ballots to count on both sides. so i find it incredible, frankly, that people are trying to call a state before they have been called on the ground. we know that this is a deeply controversial, problematic election. we have seen the president of the united states of america allege fraud preemptively, claim

victory, said that it is going to the supreme court. this is shocking, francine. we have talked about the elections for several months now. i think at some point you have to call it like it is. this is shocking, and we have to encourage people to wait until we know the official results. francine: leslie, what is most surprising? we have been told, and some of the great analysis that we read kind of predicted this very model. why is this election in 2020 so close? leslie: it is close for many reasons. first of all, the united states is very divided. people have very different views on who they want the president of the united states of america to be. people react very differently to a crisis. some people are seeing the pandemic through the lens of the economy. they are word about their jobs, and for some people that means being worried about a vice

president biden who might not moving. economy president trump has been very successful in some people, and scaring them into believing that vice president will -- vice president biden will shut down the economy and pursue a socialist agenda. there are a number of messages in the discourse around the election that i'm sure are encouragingto -- people to vote. we have known for a long time that the national polls indicated a significant gap and advantage for vice president biden, but state-by-state in the battleground states, it has been close. even when there has been a margin, sometimes as much as 6%, 7%, 8%, people have been very unwilling to commit to how that would turn out. in the context of people voting in a pandemic. with misinformation, with all sorts of politics, it is not

surprising that we are where we are. the election in 2016 is coming down to the states -- came down to the states and it is coming down to the states again. arizona went that down to vice president biden for the and my home state, nebraska, for the second time in its history, has flipped its electoral college vote. president trump held a rally in omaha, and they voted for vice president biden. serious headline. in green bay, wisconsin, they are literally awaiting the count based off think from the printer, and there is a clerkmate report that the has returned with printer ink. i did not think i would be saying that 12 hours ago. leslie vinjamuri, if this is the case, and it devolves back to the suburbs, i look at the

philadelphia suburbs today to see that dynamic but what did you glean from the suburbs of philadelphia, the suburbs of this nation? leslie: the suburbs have been the interesting, fascinating -- there have been women peeling off in the suburbs, peeling off their support for president trump. many wealthy americans that are not pleased with the president's agenda. some very good analysis coming out of people like amy walters, saying the suburbs might be lost to republicans in this round, but the democrats should not hope that that result will hold, if that is what we see and look carefully at all the data. that is not a long-term shift, that is something that might be specific to this president. tom: leslie vinjamuri, too short a visit. thank you also for your help with us, with all that we have

done in the recent months. leslie vinjamuri is at chatham house. it is about the big states, the medium states, but also the little or states. we forget that nevada is really contested right now with six electoral votes. mr. biden has some form of number of 50.2%. 47.9%, withp at almost 80% of the vote in. maybe we will get an update on the votto as well, as the contestedd midwestern states. the support of our military for their next president -- jane street us in the 6 -- james stavridis in the 6:00 hour. stay with us as the election evening unfolds. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: the presidential race is still too close to call, but president trump's claim he won. earlier at the white house he denounced several battleground states that are still counting votes. pres. trump: we will be going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. we don't want them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list. we will win this. ritika: it is unclear what the president meant. it is routine for states to keep

counting votes after election day. that is happening in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, georgia, and others. meanwhile, joe biden is optimistic. to biden: we are on track win this election. we are feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan. [horns honking] mr. biden: by the way, it will take time to count votes, we are going to win pennsylvania. ritika: biden made his potential paths of the white house a little easier by winning arizona, the third state he has won that president trump took in 2016. democrat have taken -- control of the senate is slipping away as several republican incumbents won. almost everything would have to go right for the democrats in the undecided seats for them to win a majority. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake,

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. markets right now, futures are red and green as well. 35.15. at out of milwaukee, the election director saying wisconsin adding a 6:00 a.m. announcement. in the votto, it is close and we have 85% of the vote -- in nevada, it is close and we have 85% of the vote in. 11,000 vote difference with biden ahead. please stay with us. election 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

adapting. innovating. setting the course. but new ways of working demand a new type of network. one that's more than just fast. you need flexibility- to work from anywhere. and manage from everywhere. advanced technology. with serious security. and reliable coverage, nationwide.

forward-thinking enterprises, deserve forward-thinking solutions. and that's what we deliver. so bounce forward, with comcast business. tom: good morning everybody. a in or two data points for you. one on the markets and one of

this historical election. red and green on the screen, and the nasdaq 100 is doing a little better. other than that, pretty quiet. the others, i want to look at the popular vote, and that is mr. biden 50%, .0. are working 48.3 we with, a tighter popular vote then what we saw in 2016. one of the items we are focused on. we are focused on wisconsin and i'm sure we will get something in the next 10 minutes. francine: i'm looking at the live blog and the probability of exchange. biden is trading at 57%. we've seen quite a volatility -- quite a bit of volatility when it comes to what the president

-- to the president will be. in markets are trying to get front of it. i'm focused on nevada because we thought nevada was going to go to biden. the expectations was that it would be close. democrats should hold it, but it is all out in play. the key for president trump is that, if he gets nevada, then there is still a path for him to get reelected. to discuss this and the impact it could have on the markets is chasechang, jb morgan global research. we almost need to look at the .inute by minute connection what would be difficult for the market to swallow? extra regulation? no stimulus? and under what scenario would we see that? >> when we had done surveys of

investors, they were more concerned about a contested election and volatility around that than the outcome. thee been doing probability-weighted scenarios on the outcome. we have a range. a trump victory. 3600 for year-end, which has been our target for a long time. 3300 to 3400 is a blue wave. when we have asked investors what they are most worried about in a contested election, what do you think happens to the s&p 500? 50% said the s&p 500 could go down five to 10%. you have the whole process in play. you only started counting the vote for michigan and pennsylvania today. we knew they wouldn't get results until the end of the

week for pennsylvania. a clear, decisive election has been much of the focus and that remains the focus right now. the market will get back to looking at the issues over the next three to six months, what happens on fiscal stimulus, where are we with a vaccine? right now, there is a range of outcome, and we are seeing republicans clearly outperforming polling most recently. a lot of the votes have not been counted yet. a lot of the votes coming in from urban areas more diverse have not been counted yet. what the market wants to see is something that works. francine: no matter who becomes president, maybe that is mathematical. if we see a contested election,

and president trump made it atar when he made the speech the white house, how contested is contested? once the roads clear which will lead them to the states. sore are 8000 jurisdictions, there is a process in place. a number of elections have not been decided on election day. we've only had two instances of elections being contested, 1878 and the gore/bush election. the state certifies the election and they need time to count. some of this is not new. we knew this would take a couple days, so i think what the market will be looking at is not going to proceed in an orderly way as far as the procedures on the books to count the votes.

talking about going to the supreme court were not counting votes that have already been cast, these things are not within the jurisdiction of president trump to put out there. there are clear rules in place, and that is what the market has not seen yet. tom: in a very late tuesday evening and this early wednesday morning, joyce chang with jp morgan with us. i do want to know that we are getting within the flighting this of the markets and seeing right on the screen for spx now flat and dow futures at -151. joyce chang, i think one of the great questions is what does it mean for stimulus? 4747 last i looked in the senate, and we are certainly not seeing the democratic they've -- 47/47 last i looked in the

senate, and we are not seeing the democratic wave. do you think stimulus get onto it into 2021 and will be a lesser trillion dollar statistic? joyce: it will be 2021 in any event because the key thing to look at is the reconciliation process. there wasn't a scenario where we could get to a majority of the 60. you will have to put this into budget consideration to begin with. keep it a slightly smaller margin. it has not an easy to get the $500 billion through. i think a lot of what will play out on the stimulus will depend on what happens with covid-19. there will be more of a sense of urgency, you will see a stronger second wave as the winter months kick in, and that puts more pressure on it. you are looking at a budget reconciliation process in march and a. have soseen the markets

many different interactions in the last couple weeks. you've months before you could see measures that have been talked about really come into place. tom: what does gridlock look like for jp morgan? how do you write that 12 page essay? joyce: we have been saying 3600ock is something where . thegridlock scenario was probability weighted scenario to -- 3600. say hundred if there is gridlock, there are less years to have tax cuts rollback. rolled back.- if you have a biden presidency, what is the ability to get there a big stimulus package? is it $1 trillion or $2 trillion? that makes a big difference.

we really do have to see what happens with a vaccine and what happens with a second wave as well for covid-19. that will give us a sense of urgency. it will take a while -- the vaccine will take a wild to come. there will be growing sentiment that you need some type of fiscal stimulus to tie everything over until then. i think it's early to say exactly how it will play out, what scenario is one that is contemplated as an outcome. tom: joyce chang here with us and i went to break in with news from wisconsin. this is a relative turnout of reporting, the relative reporting of madison the university of wisconsin day in county, greater than 90%. north green bay, we talked to david harrell later, 66%. if you come down to kenosha on the illinois border, they have

70% of estimated voting in and we are looking at results to come in shortly. francine? joyce, i'm probably going to ask you the most difficult question out there, because it is difficult to quantify and put it into research. no matter who becomes president, there are a lot of people in the u.s. that will find this election illegitimate. it will further erode the face of the democratic institution. how does that play out from an economic point of view? one of the consequences of this on the u.s. economy, on the u.s. institutions, longer-term? joyce: i think everybody is watching this election. they will have questions about the electoral college system since you have a popular vote and electoral outcome, and there will be a discussion about the whole system and play, disputed and contested. that was a worse fear than the outcome itself in many ways.

you will have an impact. i think all of these things have been part of the election, and they will mean something when there is a return to normal. you will see an approach that is a bilateral, transactional, driven by personality. going to playn is out, but this is why i do think what happens for the next few days, at the state level, taking the time to count all of the votes, respecting the integrity of the system, that is the key thing to watch right now. tom: joyce chang, thank you so much, with jp morgan, had of their global research department. i want to point out that we are looking at 9000 votes in wisconsin. 7000 vote difference, a little more than that. 49.3% for the vice president and

49% for president trump as well. we have much more coming up. mark shanker will stop by. head of all of our content worldwide and a wonderful perspective from schenker. red and green on the screen. stay with us, election 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is "bloomberg surveillance" and i'm ritika gupta with first word news. president trump is falsely claiming he has been reelected early today at the white house. he also said there has been election fraud and vows to

challenge states that are still counting votes in a race that is too close to call. pres. trump: we will be going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. we don't want them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list. we will win this. take several days for some states to tally their votes. accounting is taking place in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, georgia, and others. joe biden is optimistic. >> we believe we are on track to win this election. we are feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan. [honking] by the way, it's going to take time to count the votes. we will win pennsylvania. ritika: both candidates have a path to victory. is easier by

winning arizona, the first state president trump took in 2016. democrats had hopes of recapturing the senate but those chances have diminished after republican victories in iowa and montana. republicans hold a 53 to 47 senate advantage and almost everything would have to go right for the democrats in the undecided seat for them to win a room georgie. -- when a majority. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," -- win a majority global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: it's an historic evening, 1888 ifdon't go back to you are a certain vintage, but you do go back to 1960 in conversations of chicago and mary daly. conversations of alabama. 112,827 vote was

margin. maybe won't -- maybe we won't get that here. if you sum up the states the vice president needs, you get that kind of math. is it an equivalency do something as controversial as 1960 kennedy and nixon? >> they could very well be, tom. you have been talking about wisconsin. about an hour ago, it looked to me like joe biden could lose wisconsin. then, the absentee ballots come in and it is biden ahead. it now, it is a razor thin margin. if joe biden does not win wisconsin, it will be difficult for him. tom: the mathematics is there, and we can do the calculus on it, but it really speaks to the electoral vote process. when we come out of this, marty, the inauguration of whoever it will be and even two and four years on, is the electoral vote under threat?

they've beention talking about reforming the electoral vote -- electoral college, and it never happens. when you have a razor thin election like this, no one has a mandate for it, so i would suspect the electoral colleges here to stay for as long as we have a divided country. how does this get contested? does this get contested and overthrown? does it get contested with civil unrest and does it become really ugly because it is so narrow, the margin between the two candidates, at this moment. marty: i know a lot of people are concerned and talk about it. you look outside of washington, and you can see storefronts boarded up for 10 blocks around here, even though there is no one on the streets.

that i think when you get to a point where people do not understand the democratic process, that is when you have the chances for an arrest. what we should do is be patient. count the votes, let the state certify those results, and see where the chips fall. marty, do we underestimate how much president trump has changed u.s. politics in the last four years? pre-2016ver go back to now that the very democratic institutions of the united states are being questioned. marty: that's for sure. i think one of the things biden would take away from this election is how inaccurate the polling was and how the polling dominated the discourse. i think that is a function of donald trump and the way he governs.

who areizes people invisible to the posters -- pollsters. i think that is one of the storylines of the selection. reporting 2648s votes captured and this meant to with this amazing at what -- amazing technology. there's a sentence at the bottom, and those postmarked by election day have until november 10 to arrive. that is the pony express coming into las vegas or wherever. it's amazing how november 10 is so far out there if we need to go there. numberand it is true the of states, pennsylvania among them, will be counted votes postmarked election day and do not arrive. that is one of the things donald trump is so angry about. he thinks those votes should not be counted and they are right

.or fraud -- right for fraud a number of people have mentioned the american election system is the most complicated in the world. there are 50 different elections happening in the same day. if ever we weren't able to fix that, i think it would be a service to democracy. francine: marty schenker -- tom: marty schenker, you are an washington. what is the zeitgeist you hear from the team? what is the mood on the floor and the mystery they are trying to study right now? marty: it's the question of who is going to be the next president of the united states. right now, if you had to give an advantage, you would give it to joe biden. but we can all see a scenario where donald trump could wind up being the president of the united states for a second term, so it is trying to sift through all of this conflicting data to for up with a signpost

customers to make investment decisions. it is very difficult. francine: thank you so much. that is our bloomberg chief content officer. it just to update everyone with the latest in nevada, and i'm looking at a veteran political reporter out on twitter, we need to always talk about our sources, but it is a good indication. there are tens of thousands of mail ballots to be counted. for the moment it is 337,000 have been counted. in the next hour, we speak with david harold of wisconsin, a chief investment officer for international equity at 6:30 a.m. in new york and 11:30 a.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪

this is "bloomberg surveillance," tom inferencing from london and new york. we have up-to-date minutes on the market and we try to have up-to-date minutes on the election results of 2020 from the united states. the election outcome is unknown.

when you look at benching markets and what is being talked about out there, there is a slight biden by this -- biden bias because of some of the male and votes that we understand were overwhelmingly for democrats. treasuries are jumping with the dollar. president donald trump winning key states, threatening to fight an overall loss in this up in court. i'm looking at the mixed election result, s&p futures erasing gains. i'm looking at room in the and the mexican peso. tom: it's getting to exhaustion in early morning. we have a report that nevada will be taking a rest year. we may not see news of the hour. we may get out until thursday. that delta under 8000 votes. we spent achigan, lot of time in wisconsin, and a lot of as well, and it is absolutely remarkable to see some of the mathematics of the absentee ballots in michigan. there are many more there than

wisconsin, and certainly in nevada as well. those results may come in by wednesday night. that is a long ways away on that key state as well. we will continue to bring in election results, all of the news flow, and the punditry as we see it. we do this with red and green on the screen. we will look at the international ramifications of this razor thin votes in america. .ames will join us next this is bloomberg, good morning. ♪.

♪ tom: good morning, everyone.

election 2020. it is a very late tuesday evening or it is a most early wednesday morning. we will let you decide. our team in washington is culminating all of the different data from around this nation. a francine lacqua and tom keene, thrilled as you are here with us as we try to move into wednesday. we do so with states arguing, counting, and look at at ballots -- looking at ballots. the data, as if it matters, was quite extraordinary. hugely volatile, and now i have red and green on the screen. francine, we have been having fun doing this but it is a deadly serious game of counting every ballot. francine: it is. i feel like it is election by tweet, because i've been following more accounts than ever. i'm looking at the elections campaign, and this we just came out a couple minutes ago saying e