tom: the election experts are talking into wednesday and thursday, but through "surveillance this morning, we should see some results, particularly focused on michigan. jonathan: many focused on wisconsin as well. the trading range, the intraday trading range unbelievable, and the equity market and bond

market as well. tom: i've got to be careful here, but i've never seen it before. the dynamics of particularly dow futures have been extraordinary. nasdaq 100 shows a little bit of persistency, with green on the screen. jonathan: 18 basis point trading range on the treasury yield. it is the election map everyone feared they might wake up to, confronted with the idea that you might have to wait maybe a few more days. lisa: there's several maps that are the worst case scenario for markets. we have the potential for a contested election, but also looking like the democrats will be unable to win the senate. not yet determined, but that is the map. if you look at the electoral college, it is the path to 270. former vice president joe biden currently racking up 238 of those votes, versus 213 of president trump.

it is going to be up to wisconsin, michigan, georgia, pennsylvania, nevada. it is so close that the big take away here is that this was not the blue wave people looking for. this is not the outcome that is convincing, and we are just going to have to wait and see. jonathan: the consensus absolutely crushed. equities shipping buzz follows on the s&p 500 -- equities shaping up as follows on the s&p 500. in 10 bond market, yields basis points on the 10 year after a big selloff in the last couple of days, 0.7964%. in foreign exchange, this has been so difficult to keep up with. euro-dollar, $1.17. whatever i say now may well change again in the next five minutes. tom: the lack of correlation is there. it is not going to be like, does michigan do this, does wisconsin do that.

i am guessing tomorrow or even into thursday, where there is almost a sense of a sum of these different states. we are nowhere near that right now. jonathan: if you are just waking up in america, i'll have what you are having. i don't know a single person that actually got some sleep last night. here's the story of the night. it was obvious early on that things were tight. vice president joe biden coming out and urging patience. mr. biden: it is going to take a while. we are going to have to be patient, until the hard work of tallying votes is finished. and it ain't over until every vote, every ballot is counted. takehan: it did not long for the president to follow up. "we are up big, but they are trying to steal the election. votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed." then the president doubling down. pres. trump: this is a major

fraud in our nation. we want the law to be used in a proper manner. so we will be going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. he did not say we want all counting to stop. i've seen people conflict the two words through the morning on various networks. i think that is important. for me at the moment, just because this is delayed does not mean it won't be decisive, and just because it is closed is not mean it won't be contested. some real patience through the next several days, perhaps. tom: that is what our contributor jeanne zaino said. we just have to let the process work out, and where the confusion may be, it is not some big idea of going to this report or here or there. it is just a process.

red and green on the screen as we begin "bloomberg surveillance ." we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. kevin cirilli has been at it for hours. he has been just wonderful in parsing this. i want you to purchase the tweet out of "the new york times" on detroit going 93% for mr. biden. how many detroits are out there for mr. biden? kevin: well, look, i think there is only one way to win, and that is to get to 270 votes. patient. to be we've got to let this process play out because it is too early to say the trump campaign blewett in arizona amongst hispanics, or the biden campaign blew it in florida amongst hispanics because we don't know where we go from here. sometime later today, counting is going to resume in the battleground states of

pennsylvania and north carolina. point number two, if there is a legal path forward for president trump his reelection campaign, as he foreshadowed hours ago at the white house, it will run ugly through the states of pennsylvania and north carolina, and a foreshadowing that we saw last week when they tried to go a local case in pennsylvania that the supreme court did not participate in. that is the third point i would make this morning. you go back to 2000, and a contested election. it took nearly six weeks until december 12 for the supreme court to rule on the florida recount. people need to take a breath and look at the data that is simply already come in to get the data indicates that regardless of the presidential outcome, the senate map indicates that there will likely -- that the senate will likely serve as a moderating force upon whoever ultimately is

the president. why do i say that? thetor joni ernst won, republican of iowa. mitch mcconnell will likely still be the majority leader. you look across the board in states that democrats were able to slip. mark kelly defeating marco mcauley -- to flip. mark kelly defeating martha mcsally in arizona. all of that would indicate it when it comes to fiscal stimulus in the short-term, when it comes to other energy policy and the longer term, the senate is looking a bit more centrist as america and the world wakes up this morning, as the votes are still being counted in the presidential. jonathan: we've use that word patience somebody times. i think we want to understand the process, though. what are we waiting for? what are we looking for in the coming days? kevin: first and foremost, when do we hear from president trump

today, and when do we hear from joe biden today? specifically, we saw in the early hours of this morning how they were going to move forward. i have been told by sources on the president's reelection campaign, and i have set it on this program, that the president could leave washington, d.c. to get back out on the post campaign trail. he could visit battleground states. that is something that the campaign has been exploring for quite some time. i would also note that yesterday -- or a couple of hours ago, rather, we heard from the biden campaign from joe biden himself. he said senator kamala harris would be making public comments sometime later today. it comes as both of the campaigns are meeting with their lawyers, and there are thousands of lawyers on both sides of the aisle who are prepared to jump in this race from a legal standpoint. tom: kevin cirilli, thank you so

much, and thank you for your work through the evening, as leadership in those early numbers. right now christopher harvey joins us with wells fargo, out of equity strategy, was a real discipline on folios. how do you be disciplined with election chaos? what is the to do today for our listeners on radio and tv to be disciplined given the angst that is out there? christopher: let me start with this, i think kevin and jon hit it right. i want to start with the senate. to us, the presidency is important, but we think the senate is even more important. that is where fiscal stimulus comes into play. that it were taxes come into play. if the gop is going to control it, what we have to think about is any start of stimulus -- any sort of stimulus is going to be rather stimulus, and taxes in all likelihood are not going to

change. when we think about the capital markets and what is going to go forward, we could see a bit of a pullback because this was unexpected, and the stimulus we thought we were going to get will probably be much less and much later. but longer-term, we are going to see gridlock, and we think gridlock is good. we are not going to see higher taxes. more importantly, the underlying fundamentals of the economy are quite good. comps fromy easy many companies. we have low funding costs. more importantly, large sections of the u.s. consumer is in very good shape, and that is something we don't typically see postrecession where people want to spend. typically, it is a much more depressed attitude and mentality. it is more of a bunker mentality. that should not be underappreciated. lisa: a lot of people saying the outcome we are now looking at, the potential for a senate that is republican, and an

undetermined presidency, would be negative for the reflation trade in risk assets. today we are not seeing that. does it at least challenge the theory of the rotation into financials, since we are seeing a flattening yield curve in some of these other cyclicals? christopher: last time i looked at futures, small-cap futures were down or in the negative. use on nasdaq futures up. as you pointed out before, if we look at bond yields and the shape of the yield curve, rates have come down and the yield has flattened. that is not great for financials. where we are seeing the knee-jerk reaction is relatively positive for technology, the reflation trade does have to take a step back, and perhaps we will see some air come out of financials and small caps. longer term, underlying fundamentals for the economy and for many stocks are still quite good. jonathan: chris bullish, no matter what the outcome is. chris harvey, wells fargo

securities head of equity strategy. -- equityures it or futures are positive on the s&p 500. the counting will continue. this race is too close to call. tom: it is really extraordinary here. michigan, i just got this seconds ago, narrows in favor of mr. biden. in wisconsin, 91% in. it is just flat out simple. mr. biden ever so slightly increasing his lead in wisconsin, from 7000 to 11,000. jonathan: we have seen this movie before, back in 2016, when the polls got a badly wrong. coming up on this program, pollster john zogby on the future of his industry and what owners went wrong. from london and new york this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the presidential race is still too close to call, but president trump is claiming that he won.

early today at the white house, he did not several battleground states that are still counting votes. we will be going to the u.s. supreme court. .e want all voting to stop we don't want them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list. we will win this. lisa: it is unclear what the president -- ritika: it is unclear what the president meant. it is routine to keep counting votes after election day. meanwhile, joe biden is optimistic. mr. biden: we believe we are on track to win this election. we are feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan. [car horns] and by the way, it is going to take time to count votes. we are going to win pennsylvania. biden made his:

path to the white house easier by winning arizona. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. now with a vengeance it is closing, and the last print is a 46,000 votes cap. biden has closed it. ♪ pres. trump: millions and millions of people voted for us today. people isd group of trying to disenfranchise that group of people. and we won't stand for it. we will not stand for it. mr. biden: it is not my place or donald trump's place to declare who has won this election. that is the decision of the

american people. i am optimistic about this outcome. jonathan: we might have to wait for this outcome. president trump and former vice president joe biden, following this results that came through overnight. good morning. it is not about the price you see on the screens. it is about the price action in and around what you see on the screen. equity futures all over the place, now plus 30 on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.9%. euro-dollar unchanged, $1.17. we talked about this massive trading range in treasuries. about 18 points on the 10 year who said treasuries were asleep? maybe me about 1000 times over the last month. that on the screen, with dollar weakness. we were a little flatter earlier, but the huge dynamics that we see, gold down six dollars as well.

as we spoke to gallup yesterday, or maybe the day before. hasow speak to someone who really helped move modern polling forward. john zogby comes out of the mohawk valley in central upstate new york. john zogby, founding and senior partner of john zogby strategies polling. it is not too early to begin to talk about the polling. just as a general statement, was the polling better this time around versus four years ago? it wasiven the fact that quite good for years ago, i think the polling did worse this time around. you have several polls going ,nto election day oversampling still oversampling democrats. 9%, 12%why you had 8%, leads for joe biden going into this election. those are some polls that not

only do that in national elections, but in the states as well, and they are going to have to do kind of an overhaul in terms of their methodology. they are getting too many democrats and not enough republicans. other people would be a little less kind and say the political polling industry is dead, since it was not necessarily accurate in framing the selection, and as you said, did a worse job than 2016 after a lot of attention was placed on that. what would you say to that? john: i think the industry is vital. we need to be able to tap into reasonable expectations of what the public is thinking rather than look to polls to simply predict volatile situations. good and responsible polls, i amk going to put mine in there, too. i had a tighter margin than this

was suggesting all along. that is all we had to know going in. in a volatile situation, you still had even 4% who made up their minds at the very last minute. it is not so much the predictability factor as it is are we pointing to trends that we should be watching. i think good polls did say that we were capturing a trend. bad polls clearly did not. lisa: how does the polling industry counter these accusations that it is skewed to the democratic party, and has a more academic tilt, and academia tends to tilt towards the democratic party? it seems like that perception has just been edified by what we just experienced. john: this is a very good question, and i am glad you asked it. for 22 years, the zogby poll has been shifting to online polling. advocate of it,

especially in races like this. we get a better distribution of our sample, meaning the demographics that we need when we do them online, given the fact that 94% of likely voters have internet access, either on their mobile phones or at home, whereas the telephone, whether it is the ever fading landline telephone or the cell phone, which people, particularly young people, are pretty much trained to never answer, this is the ended,logy i think has for all intents and purposes. tom: one final question very quickly because we have a ton of new slow going on, as you understand. very simple. are the samples to small? john: no. i don't think it is a question of the size of the samples. it is the quality and distribution of the samples. tom: very good. thank you so much. john zogby with us this morning from john zogby strategies.

us now, ionajoins college professor and bloomberg contributor. i really want to talk about michigan, where the gap is narrowing. i notice the gap going from 200,000 an hour or so ago down to some 50,000 mind i believe we are now at a gap of 27,000. it is closing like almost a drip of water, isn't it? jeanne: it is, and this is exactly what we were told earlier. the lake counts in states like michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin would favor the democrats because they are coming from more urban areas. we hear these state officials who have been up all night counting, pleading for everybody for patients as they try to move through this. but this is exactly what we expected. this is what the president expected as he tries to cut off getting it is like ballots. tom: those stunning comments

make the headline. is the narrowing of the gap the kind of narrowing that the president could support, or is this what he is against? jeanne: this is what he is against. this is what he feared. this is what he didn't want because he knew what we all knew, which is that that early vote that they were holding in those states was probably going to favor his opponent. so we have to be patient and wait for these officials to count these ballots. but i am struck by what you said, those numbers, 200,000 to 40,000 in about two hours. that is a big narrowing, and we may see more of the same as we go forward. we are likely to see a gap we saw in 2016 of around 10,000 votes for donald trump over hillary clinton in a state like michigan. we are probably going to see some thing similar again. hopefully we don't get to florida numbers, like 500 for george bush over al gore, but it

is anybody's guess in these states. jonathan: so you don't have a base case, other than that this is going to be really tight. jeanne: this is going to be really tight. we knew this was going to be an unusual election from any stretch of the imagination. we are in the midst of a pandemic, unprecedented early voting numbers, over 100 million. turn out looking like it is going to be about 150 million. that is almost historic in the united states. and you've got these officials with their hands tied, with state laws and court decisions not allowing them to count certain things until election day. that is why we are in this position. there's a way going forward to do this better come up at this time around, we are going to have to be patient while they try to count all these ballots. tom: we've got wisconsin coming in with a further gain for mr. biden. he was at roughly and 11,000 gain a half hour ago, and as it drips in, we are at about a 20,000 gain ahead of mr. trump in wisconsin.

thanks for bringing up that. there is still a lot to be determined. given the uncertainty, the one thing that has been clear is it was a disappointing night for the democrats. certainly versus the polling, which showed them in a solidly -- in a solid lead. what is the narrative emerging as to why? is it shy trump voters, new registrations, voter turnout? jeanne: the president and his team deserve credit for reaching out in these battleground states. can't forget that joe biden only became the nominee several months ago, versus donald trump, who announced he was running the day after his inauguration, as i am sure you remember, and has been working hard ever since. you are looking at a state like florida, where he gets over 200,000 more votes this year so far then he got in 2016, and that was about 250,000 more than mitt romney. we've got to give him credit,

reaching out to the cuban-american population and other populations. he has been trying to increase support in a way i think we don't talk enough about. at least, you don't hear a lot about it in the media, where we always hear about him focusing on his base. that is one part of this. i do think the polls, and you just had a great conversation with john zogby, who i have a lot of respect for. we keep hearing this drumbeat of a blue wave, biden winning by huge numbers in the electoral college anti-popular vote. -- college and the popular vote. i think we are going to have to look at why these polls have come for the second time around in the u.s., underestimated where conservatives in this country are, and why the media reports are coming out the way they are. you can almost find no people to talk to in the last few days who didn't expect joe biden to take this thing. jonathan: in 30 seconds, if you can, we also have to ask why democrats and the democratic party over us did -- party

overestimated their ability to foot the senate. what went wrong? jeanne: i think there is a down ballot effect, which would be my short answer. the better president trump does, the more likely you are to see a joni ernst when. if joe biden ran away with this thing, the democrats would have likely taken the senate, but it is almost going to follow and have it down ballot effect. again, we still don't know how it turns out in the senate. we have a special election in georgia that is going to take us into january as well. upathan: jeanne zaino come bloomberg contributor, thank you. equity futures are positive. they were lower, much higher, now positive on the s&p 500. in the bond market, treasury yields down down -- yields now down nine basis points. the vote just keeps trickling in in wisconsin and michigan. tom: with green on the screen, if you take wisconsin and michigan, if and only if you give them to the vice president, and then you add in arizona, that doesn't get him there.

, sixs 264 electoral votes short of two's hundred -- up to 70. jonathan: -- of 270. jonathan: coming up, henrietta treyz of veda partners. from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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jonathan: from london and new york, for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your election coverage on bloomberg tv and radio continues. here's the price action. what a trading range on the s&p 500, up 44 on the s&p. the lows of the session, down 1.26%. in the bond market, yields lower by eight basis points. we take out some of the supply risk in the treasury market. there just isn't a clear path to a massive fiscal package right now. that is the story in the bond market. it is the headline we will repeat over the next several hours. too close to call. maybe that headline will change. the latest from wisconsin, from , saysmocratic party chair the following.

"green bay and kenosha results are in. biden is now up in wisconsin by 26,000 votes. biden has one more votes than any presidential candidate in wisconsin history. joe biden just won wisconsin." i should say, that final bit is from the wisconsin, credit party chair. tom: we are trying to be scrupulous about this, but bring you all sources we can across bloomberg. is thendational source associated press, and we thank them for the conservation today. we also thank emily wilkins. it is not just about the presidential race. it is about other races. but with the dynamics of her sconce and -- of wisconsin, with michigan, we will take ms. wilkins and look at the senate race in right now. the incumbent, is behind, and there is a

third-party candidate. third-party candidates to be a nasty distraction in a close election. emily: definitely. there have absolutely been cases in the last several years where and no action was made or broken by the number of folks that a third-party candidate got. this is the second time that john james is running for senate. he ran back in 2018. the democrats did wind up prevailing there. john james is giving this another go. last night he was in the lead, but once again you are seeing these absentee ballots being counted. absentee ballots tend to have a little more of a democratic slant to them. you're beginning to see gary peters catch up and close that margin, but once again, we are simply waiting for the votes to be counted and for the results to come in. lisa: on a broader scale, people are saying it looks unlikely that they senate will turn democratic. what is the path for that to change? is there one at this point as we watch the senate votes coming? emily: that is a very narrow

path indeed. democrats would have to continue to hold michigan. they would have to win maine, where susan collins is leading by a solid margin from her democratic challenger. they would need to win both of the senate races in georgia. that is going to be a really tricky map, especially after we have seen what a good night republican senate candidates had last night, picking up a number of wins in tossup states, some by double digits. at this point, it seems like hopes of having a democratic senate are very slim at this point. jonathan: great to catch up as always. thank you. this is the point of the morning where i think things get a little bit interesting on my side and your side in the markets. it is not just blanket risk on, risk off. if we have a divided government, whatever form that takes, most people assume the treasury market story might be done at this point. what i mean is the supply risk at the long end of the curve off the back of the idea that maybe we don't get that massive fiscal

package. where there might be more flux ability is the trade of the fx market. if you start to see biden creeping ahead of the little bit more, that dollar weakness starts to flush back in any more pronounced way. that is what i am looking for in the next 24 hours. absolutely with that. and i triangulate that over to ,en, and euro with a rebound and not revisit a $1.16 level would be telling. right now one of our favorite guests with perspective on washington. henrietta treyz is very seaworthy on the policy of the nation. an open question here as we parse wisconsin and michigan. will this be the same congress we have got to know over the last two years, or will it be remarkable different? henrietta: thanks so much for having me. i think it will be very similar indeed. if you could think about exactly what the timeframe you

referenced posts the 2017 tax deal, what you are dealing with is the executive branch doing most of the heavy lifting. i see a lot of focus on regulatory reform. there's focus on trade policy, whether with the u.k. come of the eu, the digital tax to be worked out there, u.s.-china trade. that is our primary story no matter who wins at the top of the ticket after we get past late february. maybe they get a stimulus bill through, just because we are still in the midst of covid. i still think there's a chance for about $1 trillion in spending. after that, the next three and a half years you're doing exclusively regulatory and trade policy, much like you mentioned in the last two years of the trumpet ministration. lisa: i am wondering your take on a race that is incredibly narrow. the narrative since last night has been that it was a shocker, that the polls got it wrong, and yet some might argue this is exactly how people mapped it out.

the in person voters leaned more red, the male and voters leaned more blue -- the male in voters leaned more blue. what is the big surprise of the night for you? henrietta: our forecast incorporates a pretty substantial incumbency advantage , and any state that biden wasn't winning by more than 3.5 points on average in the polls i assumed trump would win. the pickups that democrats are potentially looking at, specifically in arizona, the fact that north carolina and georgia are remotely close, indicates to me that the suburban story was very robust and really held, which is what a lot of the polling data suggested. i think that was a real return. we will see. obviously we have the layered on impact of coronavirus and all of these mail-in ballots skewing the narrative, but as you guys were just discussing come of wisconsin polling -- excuse me, the wisconsin mail-in ballot inc. looks like it is going to skew heavily in biden's

direction. but our path forward was a diminished victory for joe biden in because we contribute such a robust advantage in favor of the incumbent, especially given the electoral college advantage that republicans enjoy. i think the polling universe is going to come under heavy fire again, but this suburban story really was the narrative i was using as my lodestar. i think that held true in slick florida, wisconsin, north carolina, pockets of pennsylvania and ohio, where vice president biden did better than hillary clinton in certain sectors. the polling data is right in some places, probably off on the national scale. jonathan: a close vote does not mean this vote will be contested. the sequencing of event last night poured fuel on the fire that maybe it will be. i would love to hear your reaction to what happened several hours ago. the address from vice president

joe biden and the tweet from the president, and then the president. henrietta: this is an area that the street is a string there really keyed into, wanting to understand with this uncertainty is going to get resolved. i think the most important dataset you can look at is something that speaker pelosi says repeatedly. it doesn't matter if you want to contest the election. president trump as indicated in his speech last night that he wants to do it at the spring. this because you want to -- just because you want to doesn't mean you get. the states are capable. they have their own laws and ballot counting initiatives. they are the deciders. neither biden nor trump is in a position to say i want to contest this. it is resolved at the state level. obviously this is taking time, but the mail-in ballots that have yet to be counted, of which there are millions spread throughout pennsylvania, michigan, and wisconsin right now, are overwhelmingly likely to skew in favor of joe biden. if they are counting the ballots

all the way through friday, or november 12 in certain states, that is the decider, not the desire to see it be contested. so it is almost a false narrative. tom: futures up 54 right now, some nice green on the screen. you are the first when i am doing this with, and i just feel wonderful for you in your sleepless weeks and months and years. we are going on to november 8 of 2022. how does 2020 to change this evening for the senator from kentucky, for the lady from san francisco? henrietta: i love this question. because 2022 has been in the biden administration for months now. we were constantly asked, if there is a sweep, will there be medicare for all? will there be massive tax increases? consistently i had to push back and say that is not realistic because the democratic

conference, specifically joe biden's administration team, which is heavily populated by the former obama administration on theas a very keen i midterms. that has been the case since the beginning. speaker pelosi i think lost more seats than she anticipated in the house last night. the senate democrats did not pick up the 53 plus seat majority they were hoping for. that is just going to reinforce that narrative that you've got to get through 2022. i think republicans need to do a lot of thinking. arizona, nevada, and north carolina. recognize that may be they have some opportunities up north in the rust belt states, but the demographic changes, the polarization is really shifting in the sunbelt, which is going to switch up some of the narrative. but either way, you're looking at a very moderate electorate -- excuse me, moderate legislative branch through 2022 through the

midterms. jonathan: henrietta treyz, great to catch up with you. fantastic work going into this election. it is november 4. it is 7:40 eastern time. we need to get through this vote. continues. as the counting continues, he bit of momentum for the vice president. tom: in michigan, there are additional votes. 86% estimated to become did right now. the delta stays the same, 27,000 from the last time we spoke on this. it is still very much mr. trump head by just 27,000. when you were getting up this morning to start your six hour day, mr. trump was ahead by 200,000 in michigan area that has narrowed down to roughly 27,000. not not even -- jonathan: even on a day like today will you give me a break. come on, lisa. lisa: did you really expect anything different? come on. jonathan: i would like something different at sometime in the

future. baby -- maybe we get a result in the next couple of hours and tom will back up. up 50 points on the s&p. the dollar backing off session lows. coming up, rebecca green, william & mary law school professor. from london and new york on this results day, those results still pouring in, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, ritika gupta. president trump is falsely claiming he has been reelected. early voting today at the white house -- early morning today at the white house, he says there has been voter fraud in states counting ballots where it is still too close to call. pres. trump: we will be going to the supreme court. we want all voting to stop. we don't want them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list. we will win this. ritika: it may take several days

for some states to tally all of their votes. counting is still taking place in michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, georgia, and others. optimistic. mr. biden: we believe we are on track to win this election. we are feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan. [car horns] and by the way, it is going to take time to count the votes. we are going to win pennsylvania. thoseboth -- ritika: candidates still have a path to victory. joe biden made his a little easier by winning arizona, the first state he has won that president trump took in 2016. the democrats had hopes of recapturing the senate, but those hopes have diminished. republicans now hold a 53-47 senate advantage, and almost everything would have to go right for the democrats in the undecided seats for them to win a majority.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ sen. mcconnell: our country is going to get back on our feet. our nation has real challenges and real adversaries. but our fellow citizens are not our enemies. there is no challenge that we cannot overcome together. jonathan: senator mitch mcconnell of kentucky will remain senator mitch mcconnell of kentucky. i imagine he feels a lot better this morning then he might have done yesterday evening, thinking about what might happen to his senate over the next 24 hours. tom: the theme if you are just joining us, correct me if i'm wrong, but when people say the posters got it wrong, within a respectful manner, they are

mostly talking about the senate, right? jonathan: so far, yes. but also come the presidency as well. we were talking about an 8, 9, 10 point lead in the popular vote at the national level in the polls. quite clearly, things are a lot tighter. at the state level, between the rathaus race -- the white house race, much tighter as well. lisa: i am thinking of places like texas, florida, north carolina. these were supposed to be swinging more heavily in biden saver than they actually did, at least based on the numbers we've got back in, which raises a huge existential question for the entire polling industry. jonathan: a tough one. i don't think anyone is going to buy the polls for the next election. every month, every day that i have read out a poll to you, what did you say back to me? i don't buy it. what is that conversation like in four years? tom: your 100% right.

it really speaks to changing math and methodologies as we speak to the experts. this is a joy. he is holding court in philadelphia, with bloomberg news. he has a real acuity and studying the politics of the nation, and the influence that people have on our elections. mark joins us with the importance of pennsylvania. pennsylvania gets to friday, they have made very clear they have a leisurely path to friday. can any party affect the counting, including a very vocal president of the united states? mark: the republicans are going to try. essentially two pools of outstanding votes are to be counted. three, actually. there's the uncounted absentee and mail-in ballots being counted right now. there's the ballots that are going to be arriving in pennsylvania until friday.

the state court here allowed ballots that are mailed before the election to be counted if they arrive within three days p.m., until friday at 5:00 then there's the provisional ballots that have to be held after the election to determine elligibility. there's a case before the u.s. supreme court on the late arriving ballots. there was a challenge on the provisional ballots, the challenge being that voters who had mistakes on their mail-in ballots and were allowed to come in and vote on provisional ballots should not have been under state law, so these are being challenged. the timeframe for any potential legal challenges to be wrapped up? we might have to wait until tomorrow, maybe even friday or next week, to find out the pennsylvania vote. how long do all of the legal challenges have to work themselves through? mark: it is all about the

margins and the outstanding balance at this point. the margin of the presidential race is higher than the amount of uncounted mail-in ballots or provisional ballots, or these late arriving ballots. it just won't matter. we are particularly waiting to see what happens with this pool of late arriving ballots because that has already been for the u.s. supreme court. they declined to block this extension, allowing the ballots to arrive within three days after the election. the thinking is that that case is still open, that it could still come before the court, whether that is allowed, and the state and counties here are segregating the ballots that are arriving late. if the margins are such that those ballots are important enough that they are needed to decide the race, that is where i think you are going to see the major litigation. tom: they are counting in philadelphia. there's no other way to put it. thank you so much for reporting from philadelphia in the

philadelphia convention center this morning. we welcome all of you again on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. i would point out for bloomberg that mr. markey in massachusetts has defeated the challenger for the u.s. senate seat there. mr. markey was a test mr. markey with a long career in the house as well -- mr. markey with a long career in the house as well. a number of races we will get through through the morning. cheryl declared a winner in the 11th district in new jersey. rebecca green right now, truly definitive on our constitutional law and election law at william and mary. i have seen her quoted recently in all of the major press as well. professor green, thank you for taking time with us. how do you translate "we will take this to supreme court?" -- toa: i translated as the super import? -- to the

supreme court?" rebecca: i translated as, well, you can't really base it in reality at this point. i think we need to let the counting process unfold, and if there are clear places to let the state processes for determining the winner in this states unfold. nasty question like that, that is where the professor gives me a c-. [laughter] jonathan: i think the professor just want to be as nice as she could. there's no way of translating that right now. one thing you can help us with the possible scenarios you think could emerge in the coming days and weeks that you think we should be mindful of. like yourbecca: just reporter said, it comes down to how close the totals are. if there is something called the margin of litigation, if the outcome could be determined by a contested number of ballots, or a recount will

unfold. it is premature. we don't know what the totals are. until the accounts are done, we sort of don't know where we stand from the perspective of litigation. lisa: where are the legal teams for both biden and trump? what are they doing right now? rebecca: i think they are doing what the rest of us are doing, which is looking to see what the count is. i don't really think you can mobilize quite yet. it takes time. we have been saying this for weeks. we are not going to know on election night. it could take days. expert ats aren't as counting absentee and mail-in ballots. it takes time. again, the lawyers standby until the tools are in. lisa: when we talk until the legal issues, is bush v gore going to be the president? are we going to be looking at something else? what sort of legal precedents

are we not talking about that we should be? thecca: bush v. gore, majority opinion states that it is intended not to serve as precedent. veryrt of hews to the bizarre and extort mary circumstances. i think the justices -- and extraordinary circumstances. i think the justices didn't intend that it would go further. we just don't know yet what the totals are. and importantly, we don't know where litigation would arrive. once it arises, it depends on what the laws are in those states, what the political balance is in those states, and a lot else. i just think it is too early to say. are lawyers involved in any recount process, or some to be in the courtroom? rebecca: absolutely, lawyers swarm and recounts. they want to make sure everything is done properly. that is what a lot of the

litigation we saw in florida in 2000 was. various claims that ballots should be counted -- tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but i want to get this granular. if i am in miami-dade county counting in 2000, there is a republican election official, a democratic election official, and two lawyers helping out? is that accurate? campaigns think that sent lawyers to observe the people process on top of from both parties, yes. so lawyers want to document what is happening and ensure that the rules are followed as the recount unfolds. jonathan:jonathan: rebecca, fantastic to catch up. appreciate your time, and i apologize for my colleague. that's the first apology on behalf of tom keene in quite a while, actually. let's give him the benefit of the out on that one. here's the latest out of michigan.

the secretary of state for michigan indicating that we could have, should have, the result by the end of today. so some good news on the counting, that at least for michigan, you're on track to get a result by the end of today. lisa: and it looks like we are going to have a much firmer well.e of wisconsin as when it comes to michigan, interesting to note the secretary of state also said there are hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots still being counted. that is within the margin of error right now. such a close race. we should be getting a mark a plea picture pretty soon. jonathan: finally that picture coming together. tom: but this is a lot like the guernsey recount you told me about. you and i were having a beverage of our choice, and you went into the guernsey recount of i think the latest parliament terry battle. --t was dusty parliamentary the latest parliamentary battle. that was 26 votes. jonathan: quite often on this show, i try to make people jealous.

after they've just heard that, do you think anyone is going to want to come for a pint with uri anytime soon -- with you and i anytime soon? [laughter] lisa is sitting there in thing and, the guernsey recount? is that what you to do? lisa: i need a pint right now, especially on this morning. tom: help us in america. are there more cows on guernsey then people? jonathan: guy johnson would know the answer to that. i have no idea why we are talking about guernsey this morning. at least you mentioned the pint. that is why i came to london for a few months, so i could drink before i turned up to the studio. [laughter] the first time this morning, i am begging the producers to get to the break yes soon as possible. for our audience worldwide, i promise you, the coverage gets better than this. tom: at 9:00 a.m. jonathan: maybe they should take us off the air.

[laughter] the election is too close to call. for our audience worldwide, the coverage continues. live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

"bloomberg surveillance ♪ -- good morning, everyone. it is election 2020. it is the late tuesday evening, or maybe the autumnal glow in washington on a beautiful wednesday morning. on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television, or simulcast on "bloomberg surveillance. i" don't know whether to go to the market andy flighting this -- i don't know whether to go to the market and the flighting