"bloomberg surveillance ♪ -- good morning, everyone. it is election 2020. it is the late tuesday evening, or maybe the autumnal glow in washington on a beautiful wednesday morning. on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television, or simulcast on "bloomberg surveillance. i" don't know whether to go to the market andy flighting this -- i don't know whether to go to the market and the flighting this, but there is

a bit this morning. jonathan: we were told it is all about the past two fiscal stimulus. would it be smooth? would it be downhill? would it be quick? right now that path looks rocky, with storms only arise in, yet still this equity market gets bid. now startsarrative with chris harvey of wells fargo, and others are saying it. not my view. it is the view other people share. you may not get the tax hikes. tom: some of these states 7000 apart. some 20,000 apart. michigan just dribbling in here. moments ago, that gap closes 227,000 in michigan. many people on the bot inside -- people on the

bidens had wondering. lisa: let's give you the hard mass. we are talking about where the votes are coming in and where things are close. to 270 this is the path electoral votes. with 238 -- joe biden with 238, president trump with 217. pennsylvania, of course, we are not going to know for a very long time. these are the big swing states, there are more paths to get to 270 electoral votes. president trump, still very tight. we are doing it again, aren't we? michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. the difference back then was razor thin. that was 2016.

it just feels like we are watching this movie play out in a different way. tom: we are absolutely, but to me it is a huge difference. 2016 was stunning. basically no one saw it coming, including the trump family. this time around, that blue wave that many people spoke of has evaporated overnight. jonathan: big time, and so has the curve steepening as well. let me check on the price action very briefly. we advanced 64 points on the s&p 500. the curve was steeper, and now it's flatter. the euro with a lift. a bit of dollar weakness in the last couple of hours. tom has been talking about the move in crude, $38 $.70, up by 2.9%. what a night. have notst of you slept. when it became clear this was going to be a tight race, we waited to hear from the candidates.

first up was joe biden urging patience. . mr. biden:mr. biden: is going to take a while. we are going to have to be patient until the hard work of tallying votes is finished. and it ain't over until every vote, every ballot is counted. jonathan: and then came the tweet from the president of the united states. "we are a big, but they are trying to steal the election. we will never let them do it. votes cannot be cast if the polls are closed -- cast after the polls are closed." take a listen. pres. trump: this is a major fraud in our nation. we want the law to be used in a proper manner. we will be going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. jonathan: the president of the united states. the amazing thing about this morning and how the last nine or 10 hours has played out is that if you asked anyone two months morningmagine wednesday

, november 4, that is precisely what they would have come up with. it was only after the polls started to gap out after that first debate that the narrative changed. was about happy talk about a blue wave and fiscal stimulus, but two months ago, what we have seen this morning, tight races in the battlegrounds. this kind of rhetoric from the president, that is what people imagined. that is what we've got. >> there is no ash tom: there's no question about it -- tom: there is no question about it. right now, he's been exhaustive and wonderful through the evening and into this early-morning, evans a really, our chief washington correspondent. kevin, i want you to describe the city of detroit in the suburbs around it, and how you calculate what mr. biden has to do or what mr. trump desires. kevin: we should first start with the facts. some new data coming in within

the last couple of hours that shows joe biden's lead narrowly state of in the michigan, as well as wisconsin. the votes are still going to be tabulated. i am hesitant to really get out in front of any of the results of these battleground states, but you mentioned suburban detroit. suburban detroit much like the suburbs of philadelphia, like the suburbs of other cities and battleground states across the country. that is really the crucial not just swing vote, but to get out the vote effort. i think from where this story goes in the next four to six hours, i am going to be looking for two things. first and foremost, do we get any new reaction from president trump or from joe biden? that will really be a foreshadowing of the next 24 to 48 hours, and they are, for all

intents and purposes, their own campaign managers. secondly, when i will be looking for is to continue to watch developments in congress. there are still some races in the senate that have yet to be called, but i've got to be frank, this is a particularly strong night for senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. he won reelection. he had several of his incumbents who were in tough fights, and the chatter going into the selection, whether it be in texas or in the hawkeye state of iowa, he was able to have his republican incumbents come out this.argely to stay with for whoever wins the presidency, they will be governing with a somewhat more centrist type of senate. i do want to note some dynamics in the house. republicans were able to pick up just a handful of seats. i think we should, it is a bit too early right now, but start to familiarize ourselves with the new type of leadership in the house, and someone like a

cumbers woman liz cheney, a republican from wyoming, who will without question have a key voice in this congress as her political clout continues to ascend in republican circles. tom: thank you so much, on the debt amex and some of the backstory looking forward to 2021 and into 2022. that is part of the job of jim b bianco- jim bianco of research. he joins us this morning. jim, there's just so many themes going on here. let me ask you what i just alluded to on the view forward for congress. how do you invest forward to 2022? jim: that is going to be tough, especially if you think that washington is going to be important as everybody thinks. there's no clarity get coming out of washington. if you put that aside, you're left with a couple of troubling

issues that are out there. there's going to be no fiscal stimulus. that should slow the economy. room, the virus? that used to be important. remember the virus -- remember the virus? that used to be important. ist portends an economy that going to continue to struggle as we move forward from here. that portends that without any kind of clarity from congress, support for the economy might come down to the federal reserve that meets today and tomorrow. lisa: i am looking at 10 year treasury yields. jon ferro has done a great job of talking about the swing. you have seen yields come in the most at one point since april. is this a trend to bet on, basically that consensus was wrongheaded into the election come of it you will see lower yields ahead? jim: i think over the short term, you will see yields move lower. but i am still of the opinion that the march 9 low in the 10 year was the end of the bull

market, and what we are going to have is a corrective phase now. if you want to look out six or nine months, i know it is hard to look past six or nine hours, you are probably going to have much higher yields into the summer of 2021 on the back of a potential move higher in inflation. i still think that is coming. what is great is that bianco is a candidate to be on "the real yield." jonathan: he was on last week, tom. keep up. tom: well, i haven't watched yet. [laughter] jonathan: yesterday, i asked if i could tell he the result four years ago 24 hours ahead of time, would you put on the right trade? so may people said no. if i could have told you how things would develop into this morning 24 hours ago, you might have had treasuries bid. would you have had equities up eight on the s&p 500?

jim: no i would not. to be fair about what is happening with equities, they were up 2% overnight and then gave it all back. now they are up 2% again. don't forget that last week, we were down 5.6%, but of the biggest weekly declines we have seen since march. there's probably a bit of an oversold bounce going on in equities. but i am not convinced that even with the strong bid today, they are going to reverse all of last week and they are ready to go higher. i think they are going to have a slog from here and move sideways with a lot of volatility. jonathan: it was great to catch up, as always. good to hear from you. it is worth pointing out the polls were wrong. we all know that. the consensus was wrong. we all know that. the lesson of 2016 wasn't just that the consensus was wrong. it was what the surprise would mean for markets, which is why the question of the last 24 hours, if i could tell you the result four years ago 24 hours ahead of time, would you put the

right trade on? people thought that president trump was risk on. it was very much risk off debts was risk off. it was vic -- was risk off. on.as very much risk what we see now is not the result that people thought would drive up the s&p 500 and the way it is gaining right now. tom: i am not going to give an opinion on this for two reasons. it is not what we do, but more importantly, i am looking for an entry point. i am all in cash. what is really important here is the simple idea of the fear, the uncertainty that is out there, and that is when the bull tightens make it. jonathan: this is still razor thin, still too close to call. we are just looking at different scenarios and what they may or may not mean for this market. looking at equity futures up 55 on the s&p. we advance one point 6%. heard on bloomberg radio and tv, we are live.

.his is "bloomberg surveillance with the first word news" ritika: -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president is claiming that he won. he did not several battleground states that are still counting votes. pres. trump: we will be going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. we don't want them to find any ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list. we will win. lisa: it is unclear what -- ritika: it is unclear what the president meant. it is routine to keep counting votes after election day. meanwhile, joe biden is optimistic. mr. biden: we believe we are on track to win this election. we are feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan. way, it is going to

take time to count the votes. we are going to win pennsylvania. ♪ pres. trump: the citizens of this country have come out in record numbers. this is a record. there's never been anything like it to support our incredible movement. we won states that we weren't expected to win. mr. biden: i am grateful to the poll workers come our volunteers, everyone who participated in this democrat process. and i am grateful to all of our supporters in delaware and all across the nation. jonathan: president trump and former vice president joe biden overnight. from new york and london this morning, good morning tea while. our election coverage continues -- good morning to you all.

our election coverage continues. going into an adp report i think you have all forgotten about, and maybe you are prepared to ignore, s&p 500 futures up 55. we advance by 1.64%. within the bond market, particularly at the long end, tens and 30's rallying, down 11 on the session 20.70% -- on the session to 0.78%. i will keep this brief because i am sure this is not up of the agenda for you. it is a downside surprise to 65,000. the median estimate, 643,000. . 750 3000,us number, from 740 men thousand previously. we need to talk about the fundamentals at some point, away from the election. i know policy is going to be a key part of this, but the trend, what is happening in the doubl -- in the global economy, this

is kind of slipped under the radar because of this election. it will come back under the radar very quickly once this is resolved. tom: i totally agree. it is incalculable the number of things that are under the radar. i don't even know where to begin besides the fed meeting tomorrow. but the jobs report friday may have some real information. we've got green on the screen. points, 31.00. i think that is an official melt top. nick wadhams is with us, who has had wonderful experience at state. he been involved in some of the important moments of the trump administration, including with the former secretary of state and present secretary of state, and joins us after observing the president overnight. i noticed overnight, nicholas burns, the esteemed diplomat associated with republican

politics, out on twitter saying he voted for biden. tell me what this president, and for that matter, secretary of want to see in the coming days so they can move to a second administration. time nick burns for a long has been signaling his deep opposition to president trump, so that was no surprise. you did see this real shift from the so-called never trump republicans. was lia suggests now it na much of a factor. president trump's success in a lot of these key battleground states was in shifting latino voters and an uptick among black voters. but what we are seeing right now is that things are actually shifting a little bit back towards biden's favor, to a point where he may win in michigan and wisconsin. with arizona, that would make pennsylvania all but irrelevant.

he's got arizona now in his column. a lot of the focus has been on the legal battles that are to come because of the way pennsylvania counts its ballots, and that may take a long time, possibly until friday, to finish up. but the way things are trending right now, it is possible that joe biden may not even need pennsylvania to win the electoral college. lisa: right now we can't really determine who is going to win this. in the meantime, we can determine what issues where the most important to voters based on who voted and when. what is your readthrough on that? was it the economy, the coronavirus? was it china, as some people thought it could be a little bit of? reporter: nick: i think -- nick: i think the two biggest issues were clearly the economy and coronavirus. voters felt that donald trump was better on the economy, and joe biden was much better on coronavirus. those are really the big things.

there are much broader shifts going on here that we are all still grappling with. one of the key ones is the way that joe biden really underperformed with predominantly cuban voters in florida. maybe a foreign policy element to that. president trump has been very tough on cuba, and really satisfied a lot of those voters. obviously bigger trends going on there, but that was definitely something. jonathan: nick, great to catch up, as always. always enjoy your reporting. nick wadhams on this election. equity futures up 54, 1.6%. let's have a quick check on the price action for you. about one hour and minutes away -- and 10 minutes away from the opening bell, this market is all over the place. the trading range on 10 year treasuries has widened about 18 basis points intraday. on the s&p 500, up as much .1

percent, down as much as 1.26%. right now, advancing 1.6%. it has just been really volatile as it became clear very quickly that this race was much tighter than many people thought. in the last couple of hours, as the counting continues, that momentum just coming back into joe biden's favor just a little bit as the day gets older. tom: still looking for the data to come in. it is a quiet moment right now, as i guess you would expect. we will see much more in the coming hours. right now we are going to rip up the script with great respect for what jon is observing in london, a continental europe. julie norman was to be with us on this election and the politics of the moment. she is truly one of our experts on violence and nonviolence in societies. she has really done an extra ordinary job on that over the years. she is at ucl in london. i think with the terror attempts in vienna we have seen, and in

lyon the other day, it is really important to address this for our european audience. jonathan: let's start with the election itself, and then maybe tom can move us over to europe briefly. your reaction on the events of this morning. what we are't think seeing today is too much of a surprise. we knew this was a scenario that was very possible. we knew that there would likely not be a firm decision on election night, as we are used to. the fact that the race is taking longer, the fact that we are seeing the counting of mail-in ballots, is something that was pretty expected. of course, it is a lot tighter than the biden campaign would help. i think the trump campaign took a lot of confidence from that initial boost of florida, but right now, we are waiting to see what happens. tom: what is so important here, with your claimed expertise on terror, is the idea, and the

president has spoken about this quite clearly in america as well, what does a european society or an american society do about the threat of violence? what is the norman prescription? julie: well, i think the threat of political violence is always present, and of course, we witnessed that in europe in the last few weeks, and the incidence in france and austria in particular. we have heard a lot in the u.s. also about the risk of potential violence after the election as well. however, i thing is really notable that even as polarized as the country is, election day went off mostly peacefully. there were very few reported incidents of aggression or of anything getting out of sorts at any of the polling stations. i think that afterwards, even though emotions will certainly be high, we will certainly see

americans as they always do in terms of their participation, demonstrating protesting. i don't see the country devolving into violence. i think that is largely because, at the end of the day, most americans do have faith in our institutions. they want to believe in the way that the system has been working up until now, in terms of keeping things moving forward, even if it is somewhat slowly in an election like this. i don't see people panicking in the way we have heard some of the rhetoric suggesting. lisa: right now, where we stand, it looks like the senate will remain in republican control. the presidency is up for grabs, biden currently leading. it would be former vice president joe biden as the president, but a republican senate, how would that affect foreign policy in terms of protectionism, in terms of tariffs and the like? julie: i think that is a good

question, but one thing to note is that a lot of the foreign policy that trump put forward is not just necessarily assumptions, but more of the style they went about them that biden would pave it on. i believe biden would still maintain a tough on china policy, would still push nato allies to contribute more to the alliance, and what have you. but with biden, we could expect a much more stable, predictable foreign policy, one that is very much cooperative with our allies , very much focused on multilateral relationship. in the sense that even if the senate stays republican, some of the policies currently in place would not necessarily shift that much, but the tone in which they were undertaken would be a bit more what we expect under biden. jonathan: julie, fantastic to catch up. julie norman, university college london professor. equities are rallying.

your headlines in the electoral college vote count, the key races we have got our eye on, right now there are two we have been focus on much more so in the last 30 minutes. biden leading in wisconsin and narrowing the gap in michigan is the counting continues. tom: i haven't seen much voting change in the last 50 minutes, which tells me where really due. we are dribbling in michigan more so than wisconsin. mr. biden's closing that gap in michigan and he is ahead in wisconsin. jonathan: in this market just keeps getting a lift. tom: look at the percent on nasdaq. jonathan: it is unreal. tom: i have an entry point. jonathan: through the price move, find a tidy narrative. lisa: we are going to get some more fed support. we are not going to get fiscal. lower yields, good for tech, and less regulation if there is a republican senate. jonathan: simple as that. we will be with you in 10

minutes to tell you something different. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. america,esult day in for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ." ♪ ♪

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jonathan: just off session highs in the equity market. good morning to you all. from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. 60 minutes away from the opening bell. no idea how long you will have to await some of these results. the equity market up about 65 on the s&p 500, we advance 1.9%. even if the race tightens up for joe biden, leading in wisconsin, narrowing the gap in michigan. getting tighter. maybe about to extend his lead. morning a belief this if fixed income -- that takes out a huge package. it is all about the maybes at the moment spirit the markets have to move. fit comfortably below 18.

tom: it is most interesting. because of the guest quality we will move right on, even with the market up substantially. we get lucky. we have to get to friday. with 75% of the vote counted, all eyes will be on pennsylvania. after wisconsin come after nevada, after michigan. lucky because i knew a president trump when when i saw a map of bucks county four years ago. mark schweitzer joins us. he is from bucks county. he has a former governor of pennsylvania. wonderful to have you with us. you have observed the dynamics of bux and montgomery county 2020. is it the same as 2016? mark: i have to say four years later, there is a discernible -- this handicapping among

suburban women in bucks county and montgomery county. donald trump is a fierce campaigner. he made up for the reduction in the suburban counties because i believe democratic women in many rural locations went with donald trump to make up for that. observed,have already it moves from the voting machines to a judicial courtroom. ridge went upom against ed rendell. there is pittsburgh as well. will we see the same polarized biden support in philadelphia, in pittsburgh, that we observed in detroit and milwaukee? sense is the election platform in philadelphia is essentially a safe and valid

one, yet that jurisdiction and every other county in pennsylvania has never been through this large influx of write in ballots. even with the best of intentions they have to be monitored as far as the accuracy of the vote, and i am sure both the joe biden campaign forces and the trump campaign forces will be making moves immediately to monitor that process. as we see in michigan or wisconsin, and dramatically in pennsylvania, a large number of write in votes, right in ballots. it will take a long time to get to a conclusion. for me that has to be monitored. i think it will be done safely. early voting a massive feature of this election. it is not something that is

going to go away anytime soon. is there a better way of accounting for these boats as they come through, counting them any more efficient way, or do we have to get used to things for the elections in four years, eight years, 12 years? mark: i think it can be made more efficient. , andounty in pennsylvania you know the geographic makeup, rural, suburban, urban counties. some counties have managed -- given the emphasis on security and opening two envelopes, there is machinery for quickly opening envelopes without jeopardizing ballot security. one by one these counties will adopt that and it will come more quickly. lisa: i know tom keene's favorite story of the day was green bay running out of ink and having to pause some of the ballot counting.

talk about old technology. about 20 minutes ago we got data on the u.s. economy showing the u.s. added fewer jobs than expected in october. this was not something people were focused on yet it is the issue. there needs to be a recovery from the steepest recession. it has been the shortest since the great recession. can you speak about what is needed and how likely we can get the support needed with a split government? with a republican senate and a potential democratic president? wise, it is hard to see the coming together of democratic and republican leadership in washington, d.c.. i hope i am wrong. we do have the consensus around a broad, meaningful stimulus package. that, ier we get to

think we kick off the surge at the uptick in the american economy. i think we get jobs returning and the paychecks. is hard to ponder that possibility on this wednesday morning. as we go into this judicial , itle over ballots and so on would like to see an emphasis on what they call the next normal. in the next normal, whenever that might unfold, and i hope it is soon, is there be a heavy emphasis on workforce training and reskilling opportunities. need that heavy emphasis across the country and each state regardless of who takes the oath on january 20, just a few weeks from now.

greatly appreciate it. we just got in a little more voting from michigan, but it did not change the dynamics. not the big swing of the detroit dynamics. a little add. still 86% of estimated votes counted. jonathan: it has been volatile in the market over the last several hours, but just in the last hour things are stable. the lift of 58 on the s&p 500. we are still up about 1.7%. ,he move in the bond market after this move on 10's higher, the curve steeper, this idea we would get a blue wave, this morning back to reality. 80 basis points on a 10 year yield. for market participants, that has to be the story of the morning. you can take lisa abramowicz narrative away from the bond

market and the nasdaq outperforming. tom: i think so. the nasdaq surging. i will let you tell me the percentages. nevertheless, there is a persistency to it. i think what is fascinating is we forget it is wednesday, and i believe on the political calendar they are micro processing wisconsin and michigan, and pennsylvania is forever out. jonathan: maybe see you on friday for that one. this coming from senator rubio. he says the result of the presidential race will be known after every legally cast a vote has been counted. republican senator of florida marco rubio on twitter. "the result of the presidential race will be known after every legally cast vote has been counted." tom: it will be interested to see the republican dynamic off of what the president's comments is, and even more interesting to see how the president follows on. maybe it was kevin cirilli

we would have the president traveling and doing rallies in the coming days. i will leave it to the experts to advise me on that. one of the experts mentioning that several weeks ago and at the time it felt foreign. here we are. tom: here we are on a wednesday before of that meeting which means it is a good time to speak to julia coronado of macro policy perspectives. i guess for chairman powell, given what we have observed, it is first do no harm. how boring is the meeting going to be tomorrow? boring is a weird word to use in the current context. i do not think anybody is bored. the fed is probably relieved that despite the chaotic turn the markets -- yes they were volatile overnight but they are

functioning, they are sanguine. the fed will do no harm, stand back, they are ready to do what is needed to support the economy as the outlook clarifies. the way markets are interpreting that is the fed will step in more aggressively because there will not be as much fiscal support. i am giving a narrative to the market move. 10-year treasury yield's following the most since april 15. do you think this is accurate? otherwise the fed will be more aggressive in buying bonds and suppressing yields? thea: the flattening of curve can be interpreted in two ways. one, that the fed will do more come increase the amount of their purchases, and i think that is likely in the process, and the outcome of fiscal gridlock, but it is also affecting inflation breakevens

and we will just get a slower grinding recovery of gridlock. you see the adp numbers. we are losing momentum. we still have a pandemic holding back key sectors. will mean less fiscal support for state and local governments, lower unemployment recovery, it also just means lower for longer, slower recovery, less inflationary impulses. all of the other things that came along with what was possibly going to be a big push. we will not get that. jonathan: where is this recovery? any other week we will be looking at a blowout manufacturing read on the ism, looking at services, thinking about the restrictions in massachusetts 48 hours ago, and looking at what was playing out in europe and wondering if united states plays the same way. we are not asking those questions because we are focused on one important thing, but

where's the recovery going? julia: i think the data will matter even more in this environment because gauging that underlying momentum, seeing how well the economy weathers what is now a resurgence in coronavirus is going to be very key, because we are likely to get last fiscal support to help us whether that. it is going to be how well do we organically navigate these shoals? it is unclear. the manufacturing number, we know we are in a good recovery. distancing skews towards cars and houses and home goodsement and all of the and manufacturing sectors, services, leaders, hospitality's , these are the things that are moribund right now. this hinges on the pandemic itself and the support for businesses in these industries to stay in business as we get to

the other side of this pandemic. lack of a billhe will hurt. we will see small business failures, more lasting disruptions, more structural disruption if the pandemic drags on and we have to see the sectoral rotation. that will affect the employment situation, and that is what will mean a slower, grinding recovery. jonathan: january 20, 2021. let's talk about that right now. you have to wait three months. we have to face the reality of not getting that help for three months. the data i see shows the economy is doing ok. it has momentum. what you think we will be in three months? julia: is doing ok. we are still digging out but we have recovered just over half the jobs.

if we are seeing the momentum of the jobs recovery slow the way you suggested has, even if it continues at the pace of last month, that is too slow when we still have half the jobs to get back to full employment. prospect and a well negotiated package of fiscal support coming come at least businesses and households could look towards that and navigate knowing that might be coming, so you might see more of a bridging of the gap, willingness to spend down some of the money that has been saved as you know more help is on the way. if you do not have that, then people may stay cautious. small businesses may cut their losses and close up. -- regardless of what you -- regardless of whether we get fiscal or not, it will be a while. if you know it is coming, you will behave differently than if

you realize it is not coming. that is a measure for the momentum in the next couple of months. tom: very quickly, it is unfair quickly. do you see any evidence of central bank can apply policy across the inequalities of the nation, date they can affect policy for the habs at the same time as the have-nots? julia: no. the fed does not have good tools to address that. worldlatter, lower rate where there interest rate tool has left power through the credit channel and they have to rely more on balance sheet and qe, that does not bode well for inequality. time for someis blue sky thinking about monetary fiscal monetary tools working in collaboration, digital currencies, i think we

need to start having this conversation. this is a global phenomenon. there was a nice editorial the other day on this. monetary policy is running out of power and we need to restore that power with new tools or think about structures for better fiscal/monetary coronation. jonathan: great to catch up with you. thanks for coming on the program. julia coronado, macro policy president and founder. a quick check on the price action. the counting continues. things tightening up in michigan. the lead in wisconsin remains for joe biden. trump 213. equity futures up around 60. we advance 1.7 5% in the equity market. in the bond market, a tiny bit on the 10 year. moment, coming up on "the open" i will be catching up with libby cantrill of pimco on the path forward, for the next

week, the next months, the next couple of hours. tom: the next couple of hours, people waking up, libby cantrill, forward to the lame-duck and whatever we have in january. what i would also suggest is the idea of debbie dingell on the today show talking up the congresswoman from michigan and part of the political landscape of michigan. "joe biden will win michigan." she is supposed to say that, but there is nevertheless. the confidence as we get more results. lisa: people are looking at the way the composition is coming in. a lot of the detroit region has not been counted, now it is being counted. it is coming in strongly for the former vice president. still a lot more to go. georgia raised, very close. there are about 127,000 absentee ballots still to be counted in

dekalb county as well as the county where atlanta sets. hard to see how joe biden will overcome that 100,000 vote lead for president trump, but such a net net race. -- a neck and neck race. 87% counted in michigan. isaac boltansky joins us. we look at policy and we do it now with a different view of a new senate. isaac boltansky, how will this mcconnell senate be different? important to talk about stimulus. that is the question my clients have focused on. if leader mcconnell stays leader mcconnell and the republicans have the majority in the senate, then the scale and scope of any fiscal stimulus next year will be lessened.

what we will see, especially if leader mcconnell has joe biden in the white house, is republicans returning to their perch as fiscal hawks and pushing back on everything in his agenda, including the broad-based stimulus that i think was the underpinning of the reflation trade. tom: how does it play to 2022? we have had many guests speak of the primary season for both parties, which begins today, maybe tomorrow. playoes this new calculus two years out? isaac: at the moment we are just focused on the next two hours and two days. it is worth noting that democrats have a relatively better set up in 2022 for the senate. what interests me is how is the democratic party going to reconstitute itself and refocus

itself after what, no matter how you cut it, was a disappointing night. i think a lot of the fractures we have seen covered over in the democratic party to focus on the presidential race will be highlighted in the coming weeks and months, between the far left progressives and the centrist moderates. that is the most interesting battle. it is going to help define what the soul of the democratic party is, not just in the midterms but also in 2024. lisa: i love it. say 2022 andys people say we are in the middle of a nail biting election. we need to wait to have a sense of what the outcome of this is, let alone two years from now. there is a sense the political polling industry is dead after this election, or at least has afterre--- reinvented getting it so badly wrong. the blue wave that seems certain has not materialized.

as someone who advises people in markets, people to understand the political landscape, what would you tell them in terms of be reading in to the coming elections. isaac: the market was a little bit ahead of the curve. me and a lot of my competitors were reticent around the polling , although it would be analytical malpractice to dismiss it. i can tell you a lot of investors were largely reticent of the polling. they were cautious accordingly. what i cannot grasp is what are we going to look at for the midterms and for the next presidential election? there is no credence that can be put into the polling industry. it has failed in its function. it has to be reconstituted because it is no longer reliable . this is two times in a row it has failed in its core function. it has to find a better way if it wants to survive and i think

it will take a long time for them to prove they have found a better way. lisa: this is a huge point. we have a sense of where they went wrong? isaac: no. i do not think we do. you can point to a number of factors in terms of how they wait this or what they do with that. it reminds me of the old saying that all models are wrong, but some are useful. if they have proven there is are not even useful. i do not know with the exact answer is, but failures of this scope will lead to investors and everyone looking for new ways to attract public sentiment. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciated. compass research. we are losing track of time. kevin cirilli thinks the sun is coming up in two hours. it is 8:50 in new york and washington as well. across the nation we wake up to an extraordinary multiple set of

careful elections. you just mentioned georgia. is that where you are focused? lisa: focused on georgia, michigan, wisconsin. michigan and wisconsin are the major ones. we should be getting some color. it looks like the major metropolitan area in michigan, detroit is being counted and that nace is -- that race narrowing. i do not know if you are playing with any of these paths to the white house algorithms overnight , this idea that former vice president joe biden has more potential paths to win the 270 electoral votes, but president trump still has very realistic chances of also having a path. you game out the system. we are talking about thousands of votes here and there. tom: to me the statistical outlier, and i saw some good work on nevada on the importance of las vegas as they dive into their wednesday morning is about the urban and rural divide, which we all know about.

just to see the percentage of joe biden votes in some of these urban areas, it has the attention of the pros. lisa: not just that, but this is something we were talking about. the idea early voters would be to a large degree democratic, and that has borne out. people were saying there might be at initial red wave with person votes, but after that you see the blue trickle in. we are seeing that to some degree when it comes to michigan and wisconsin. unclear whether that will continue come and unclear in nevada whether that will be the case. tom: may be the greatest mystery is georgia. after the success the president had in texas and florida, just the geographic proximity gets your attention, where he can hold off the vice president in georgia. i believe it is about 104,000 separating the two. much closer in nevada. in michigan and wisconsin, the numbers are a blur. mr. biden leading in wisconsin,

mr. trump leading in michigan. maybe that will change in the next hour on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. what has changed is we have seen remarkable variance across equity markets through the night . that has changed. upre is now real resiliency, 60 on s&p futures. the nasdaq 100 up two. .p 3.8% on the nasdaq yields moving in. we will study -- lisa will study through the morning with her work on bloomberg radio. theferro will continue political debate with the dose of economics and finance. i will be joined by paul sweeney on bloomberg radio. we will go through the night. david westin at 12:00 noon as well. it is a white house with an extraordinary set of electoral vote outcomes to be had.

right now in the vicinity of joe biden, 238. trump, 213. stay with us through the day on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york and

london, for audience worldwide, the content of the open starts right now. we advance about 52 points. we are up 1.55%. former vice president joe biden urging patients. vp biden: we believe we are on track to win this election. we are feeling we'll good about wisconsin and michigan. way, it will take time to count the votes. we will win pennsylvania. jonathan: president trump tweeting moments later, we are up big but they are trying to steal the election. we will never let them do it. votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed. the president going on to falsely claim victory, threatening legal action cured president trump: