pres. trump: millions and millions of people voted for us tonight, and a very sad group of people is trying to disenfranchise that group of people, and we won't stand for it. mr. biden: we are going to have to be patient, until the hard work of tallying votes is finished. brink.e: biden on the michigan and wisconsin go blue. the next four years hang on georgia, nevada, and the vignette.

the -- and pennsylvania. no sign of qe for the boe. officials boost stimulus to prevent a double-dip recession. good morning, everyone. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance," but welcome to our election special. votes are being counted. i am francine lacqua in london. tom keene is a new york. tom, we look at the senate, the legal challenges. i know you and i have not slept much in the last 24 hours as we were roaring through the votes, trying to figure out exactly how throughident -- poring the votes, trying to figure out exactly how the president can mount a challenge. the other big news is the bank of england, because they did more than the markets were expecting, but remember this is in the middle of a brexit negotiation. lockdown in london starts today -- actually, the u.k. as a whole starts today. if you look at futures in the u.s., european stocks, they are

tom, twocompared, yesterday. liking what they see at the moment, but whatever the outcome of the u.s. election was, it was pretty much priced in, because a very tight race expected. tom: futures up 42 in america, francine. it is about the politics, but i do take your point about the bank of england and those statements to be made, maybe we will hear from them later this morning, and also the federal reserve meeting this afternoon. it is pushed aside by the moment. if you want one moment of tension, francine, i have two observations quickly. the first moment is arizona tilted a little bit in a better trumpian direction overnight, ever so slightly. it was good news for the president as truly he fights for his political life. the single best headline i think i've seen, francine, on the american election is out of "the times of london," they simply say "america holds its breath." francine: yeah, america, and you

can argue the rest of the world, too. , msnbc, theyt cnn projected biden would win michigan, which trump took in 2016i will get to the board and a second, but we talk about joe biden being on the brink. i do not know if we can find out today come in next couple of hours, whether he has it or not, but it does mean that joe biden needs to only win an additional outstanding state, such as nevada or georgia, to become president of the united states. again, i am looking at the data, and actually the data is pretty much at ease at the moment with the joe biden presidency and the senate that is held by the republicans. stocks are rallying. investors piling into technologies. i think, tom, this has to do with not expectation but extra regulation because there is the senate that is held by republicans, and then we look at the bank of england. i want to show you the pound, tom, because it may be a bit

counterintuitive to what we have seen in the past and terms of doing more, and you can see sterling 1.3012, tom. tom: we have got a wonderful guest for that, francine will bring in futures, yes, in the then, dow futures out in 28,000 level, 258 dow points, and the real story here, i will keep it short, folks, is the vix with a vengeance, with election uncertainty beginning to be pushed aside. what, three cups of coffee ago, now at 27.44 on the vix. that is an extraordinary move, and evaporation of statistical uncertainty. the-year yield .72%. i think, francine, we will leave it there, because the political conversation right now is so important. francine: yeah, tom, although, three cups of coffee? i would say at least 24 cups of coffee, otherwise you are, you know, more virtuous than i am.

so joe biden on the brink of a drifter flipping michigan and wisconsin. he is just six electoral votes needed to win0 the presidency. joining us at this morning is dr. leslie vinjamuri, head of the u.s. and americas program at chatham house. leslie, given the mathematics, is that now a done deal for joe biden? dr. vinjamuri: you know, i think the one thing we have learned in this election is don't call done deals until it has been counted, until it is confirmed. indication we are on track for a bite and victory, but note nbc, "the new york times," there are some places that have not called arizona. they want to see, you know, all those votes come in, as you have gotten slightly different news in terms of the balance every night, but all the indications, it looks like pennsylvania's leading toward biden, georgia,

some of the suburbs are interesting, so we are seeing exactly what people told us we would see, which is as those mail-in ballots are counted, they are leaning democrat, and that is moving the result toward the biden victory. we are also seeing that of course the overall number by isch vice president biden likely to win will be much higher than in those three states, those upper midwest battleground states than it was andpresident trump in 2016, a very significant number in terms of the popular vote, more than hillary clinton won the popular vote by so, you know, everything looks on track, but it is important to, you know,, overnightprotesting in regards to president trump. they want their votes counted. on the legallie,

challenges, what can president trump and his team actually do to challenge this? dr. vinjamuri: well, we saw president trump's, quite frankly, shocking response yesterday night, morning here in the u.k., already claiming victory, and, you know, saying that he was going to go to the supreme court. he can certainly -- he has called for a recount in wisconsin. he is calling for, you know, votes not to be counted anymore in pennsylvania. he is calling out irregularities. you know,, i think, to notice, he is speaking to a very small choir right now, and what is interesting to watch is even those around him, i think, are going to become very quickly reluctant to support the president's call, and as the numbers move in vice president biden's direction, that effect is going to be even stronger. but right now, i do nothing president trump is going to, you know, be able to sustain the

people around him in that rallying cry. but he can certainly -- he will use every tool that he has to try to mount legal challenges. tom: dr. vinjamuri, good morning from new york. dr. vinjamuri: good morning. tom: thank you for starting this morning on this most interesting thursday. dr. vinjamuri: [laughs] to: leslie, i want you discuss for the guardians worldwide the disparity of a recount, because what i think is a web and here -- the audience worldwide the disparity of a recount, because what i think is important here is where a recount is typically a percentage discussion, and, to be direct, we are nowhere near ensysmall, teensy we percentages that have led to a of the past. dr. vinjamuri: no, we are not. the numbers are significant. if you listen to people who are talking about this very clearly, the state level individuals in charge of conducting elections, they are simply not seeing the

irregularities or any of the allegations substantiated that president trump has levied. and the numbers don't bear out the need -- this is a president who is very distressed. he has been distressed for some time. the most extraordinary thing about his or marks, of course, were, on the one hand, he claimed victory, that everything was going well, and on the other hand, he sounds like a loser, he sounds like someone who is deeply distressed, who wants to recount, confirming what we already know. tom: right. michael\i thought was brilliant last night on msnbc, talking about the same 20 of the east room. this is really inside the beltway, folks. we all know the east room is a magical room. how will washington react to a lame-duck trump if and when we get there? dr. vinjamuri: well, this period

right, whenever this election is called, whether it be today or tomorrow, or if there is a legal challenge, maybe it will take a little bit longer, all the way through to january 20. there are a couple of questions -- one is how washington will react, but the bigger question, tom, is what will president trump do in the days, weeks, and few months ahead. this is an incredibly uncertain period for u.s. politics. donald trump is highly unpredictable, and i suspect that he will double down on any number of measures designed to protect himself, to protect his friends, to push through policies that he wants to see, but it is going to be erratic, it is going to be difficult, and i think we need to gear up very quickly for managing what will be a difficult few months. tom: leslie vinjamuri, thank you for joining us. we appreciate it very much and we look forward to seeing you tomorrow at some time. i do not know if we will see dr. vinjamuri tomorrow, but that would be good. francine: tomorrow and monday and tuesday. in norancine, bloomberg

way is trying to get out in front of the polls in the moment. as i mentioned, arizona with a few votes recently has gone more toward the president. he is still behind in arizona come about within our conversation, folks, we are not trying to get out front. francine: but what we are trying to get out in front of, tom, is what the market is looking at, right? so we are looking at polls from others, we are careful, but we also need to try to understand what is moving the markets. it is clear that the senate race and the race for the white house are moving markets. up next, on the break to victory, joe biden sounds confident as he wins michigan and wisconsin. we will discuss with david a sarah of -- davide serra of algebris. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance," tom and francine from new york and london on bloomberg, and this is our "bloomberg surveillance" election special. any major policy changes while the u.s. election hangs in the balance. to discuss the election, the fed, and central-bank policy is a davide serra, chief executive of algebris. inide, it is the second day a row where markets seem to like what they are seeing. technology stocks are definitely leading the gains. the general exultation in the markets that joe biden is president, the senate republicans, so we are kind of in gridlock. the lack of stimulus may

outweigh benefits of no extra regulation and not a breakup of technology stocks. yes,e: well, i think, first of all, there is certainty. that is what the market is pricing, so basically the market has decided it is very likely that biden will win. that means you will not have the scenario potential, the contested election, which was in the cards before. way, back to a normal relationship, so less picking fights with anyone outside of the united states. and, fourth, at the same time, because it is not a clear blue wave, in a way, you are not going to get a massive sweep of regulation, as you said. having said so, i think the proof is in the putting in the coming months, because these tech oligopolies i think will have to be dealt with, particularly from the european

stance, it is no longer accessible across the continent. davide, what does it mean for stimulus in the u.s.? why is theyou know, market not pricing in these legal challenges in the u.s., becoming something that turns into something more real, that becomes real divisive issues that hurt economic growth? um, let'sthink they, say, there are -- from the numbers perspective, first of all, the election looks like to be a clear win, so, you know, we are not talking about a small recount, so any legal challenge is basically noise. fed'sly, from the perspective, i think they will be pretty much on hold. the ecb has already said early december we are going to cut

back, so this situation whereby you are getting fiscal stimulus, i would say now, stable policies, compared to before, and still very relaxed monetary policy means it is conducive, basically, for owning risky assets, particularly in equity, which is the only one giving yield, because on the other, you need to consider the whole planet has liability on the others, fixed income, gets pretty much zero. of the $53 trillion -- sorry, $65 trillion fixed income assets of $85 trillion, 20% is agative, 90% yields, and as result, mods of liability-driven investors are forced into equities. tom: davide, tom keene in new york. good morning to you. thrilled you can be with us. i look at a number of bank stocks and bank indices

yesterday to get a sense of how the financial system is reacting to all these politics, and what i see is a massive ambiguity. which way does a biden administration cut for the banks? davide: tom, i think, first of all, overall, i would say it is neutral, because, you know, the fed is in charge of a regulatory side. tripoli capital change, the business marco -- banks triple the capital change, the business model, if you think about it, it is a one and 100-year shock, making profits, and as a result, i think, you know, this time around, through the social utility, and i think at the same time, we are catching lower rates, which is important, because obviously banks are a conduit of the monetary policy. so the fact that we are not expecting rates to go any lower globally because of the fiscal

stimulus, i think, means overall financial stocks are underpinned here. and into next year, when the vaccine will be deployed in 2022, 20 23, i think you will see a very positive scenario, whereby basically you get an acceleration in growth, banks, massive amounts of capital, and dividends that will be, you know, re-allowed, which means theall-in yields for sector, whether in u.s. or in europe, could be well above 10%, and that compares to 2% of the s&p. so i think in the next 2, 3 years, you are looking at a's ignition outperformance of financials. -- a significant outperformance of financials. tom: francine, jump in here. we have interesting headlines out of the bank of england. francine, i want to go to davide of the negative yield conversation, our guy johnson speaking to the governor of the bank of england here in a bit.

francine, do you note the leaking of the decision? is that accurate from bloomberg? i believe it is. francine: no, tom, actually, the bank of england was meant to come out with it at 12:00, and then yesterday, they did not want to front run anything that richey sumac was going to say, so they timeline the decision. there is a decision at 7:00, he spoke to the press, then the press are actually allowed to do headlines right now. governor bailey, davide, saying they are working a negative interest rates, and we had a conversation in the past about when is the right time to even do negative rates in the u.k.? is it end cycle, is it when we start to see a pickup? given lockdown is here, what does it mean if we go to negative rates for u.k. banks? davide: well, i think, first of all, negative rates in the u.k.

means actually, with brexit, what u.k. has achieved, it is a fully one-to-one over europe, because basically they are forced to go into ecb politics. secondly, negative rates basically are a nuclear option, arehat savers, and banks obliged to basically mobilize the resources they had, because if not, they get taxed, if they stay high. you basically want to put your cash in a bank account. if you are not doing anything with it, you are losing money. i think the combination of brexit plus lockdown is going to thea very bleak scenario on u.k. economy, so i think the bank of england is basically just copycat the playbook of the ecb, which had similar deflationary pressure, and this is going all in. it is a clear reversal of politics, because they always deny, and come in a way, also distance themselves. but the reality is 60% of u.k. trade is with eu, and now you

are going to make it more complex, with brexit, and then on top of it, you just drop a pandemic. davide, thank you so much, davide serra, chief executive of algebris, for some much needed perspective on the markets. coming up, the bank of england takes decisive action, the lockdown begins in england, and the second wave of coronavirus is the u.k. we will discuss that next, and our guy johnson speaks to governor bailey a little bit later on. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine from london, and this is special coverage of the u.s. election, 2020. of course we are day two. we look at all the votes in the remaining states we look at what the markets are doing. the bank of england and boosting andbond buying program, policy makers of course voted unanimously to we have been talking about it all day. to increase their asset purchase program by 150 billion pounds. they are keeping benchmark interest rates at a certain percentage. we will speak to governor bailey a little bit later. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

adapting. innovating. setting the course. but new ways of working demand a new type of network. one that's more than just fast. you need flexibility- to work from anywhere. and manage from everywhere. advanced technology. with serious security. and reliable coverage, nationwide. forward-thinking enterprises, deserve forward-thinking solutions. and that's what we deliver. so bounce forward, with comcast business. pres. trump: millions and millions of people voted for us tonight, and a very sad group of people is trying to

disenfranchise that group of people, and we won't stand for it. mr. biden: it is clear we are winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. i'm not here to declare we have one, but -- we have won, but i'm here to report that when the count is finished we believe we will be the winners. of: in the first light thursday morning in america, we welcome all of you worldwide and across the nation, perhaps a president selected today. we will get to the data, lots of other conversations as well, a really important conversation coming up in moments to the local response we are seeing out of washington, but it is election 2020. what you need to know right now is a wide set of states still up for grabs. we will go through those dynamics throughout the show. francine? francine: first let's look at

data check. of course, we could see a razor-thin majority or a win for joe biden. we have to be very careful. toare waiting on about four five states, but we are also looking at the senate, and this could change the composition of the u.s. economy. the markets are pretty much focused -- what they found out over the last 48 hours. stocks rallying globally come investors piling into technology and health care firms. i guess what they are betting on is that the u.s. election results will trigger no major changes to taxes or regulations that have underpinned the bull market. that is what is happening in the u.s. across all asset classes. 1.3028,o mention pound, after the bank of england is doing more to stem the virus and break the fallout. in aour guy johnson conversation with the government

of the bank of england. right now the most important conversation of the day -- there 27.00 onta, the vix, the vix is a remarkable statistic, signaled by the volatility index of the standard & poor's 500. john began his career at the new york post, knocking around city hall and the police precincts of new york city. he went on to acclaimed work at the new york times and holds court overnight in washington. that is one of the most important jobs on our government team. he joins us this morning. i want to talk about the local response in philadelphia, in phoenix, in atlanta to federal officials, and particularly to the trump people so upset. how do you believe mayors, commissioners, and precinct leaders will respond? they seem to be responding in different ways.

i would say on the whole, like say in las vegas, in phoenix, and in reno overnight. --re were protests at outside offices where they were counting votes. in detroit earlier in the day, some protesters entered an office and started chanting, but as far as i know, there was no violence, there were no arrests, i don't believe, so i think people -- i think the authorities or -- are sort of trying to calm things down at not overreact. francine: john, do these legal challenges and up with the supreme court? john: i'm sorry?

challengeshe legal that trump is mounting. john: they could, yes, certainly. but the legal strategy seems to two contradictory approaches here. in some states, like in arizona -- in the vada, they are where nevada has been called, they are trying to revisit that and demanding that news thenizations that call state retracted, which they will not do. every vote will be counted, and states like pennsylvania and michigan, they want the count stopped. so which approach would they take into the courts? we don't know yet. and it is unclear exactly what their argument is going to be at this point. john: one final question if we could this morning.

you have been on the watch all night. what is the first thing you are going to look for in the washington morning? john: well, when the accounts come again, joe biden has as you note to -- he needs six more electoral votes. nevada seems to be his best -- the best candidate now that would get him there. be -- there isto going to be more counting today on thursday morning, so everybody is looking to see what happens. francine: john, thank you so much. john harney in our government team, working overnight. our next guest served as british ambassador to the united states between october 2007 and january 2012 under the last democratic president. he is now a visiting professor at king's college london.

nigel sheinwald. when you look at what happen in the u.s. in the last two days, what will it be remembered for? is it the mail-in ballots that were clearly more pro-democrat, or is it the legal challenges ahead? nigel: everyone is caught up in the drama of the moment. as you know from being in london. there is huge interest in what is going on. but i don't know that people will always think about the election itself and the count and the legal challenges when they think about this. it will depend who wins and the manner of the victory in the weeks ahead. people of course remember hanging chads, words we have never heard before from 2020, but more, they remember 9/11 and the iraq war and the bush presidency for other reasons. i think it depends what happens,

and we will just have to see and focus on the strategy and the policy for the four years ahead. francine: ambassador, if joe biden becomes president and if president trump doesn't want a peaceful champs fish -- peaceful transition of power -- i don't know your thoughts are on at the moment, or if it is too soon to say. willie change politics in america forever? the transition of power is a fundamental in democracy. i don't know anywhere in the world where you can have democracy where that is not a basic plaque of the constitution . we will see. president trump has kept his options open. he has not committed in any way to the normal norm of the transfer of power, but we will just have to see. ,e is keeping his options open

a familiar trump tactic. a degree of distrust in the system, of course. that is also his style. if you look at his demeanor yesterday morning, i thought it was relatively calm. we will have to see. people are listening to really -- people listening to rudy giuliani are worried about the optimism and the fundamentals of the constitution. they will say this is internal to americans for the time being. we hope it is over quickly because we want america restored to a position of trust and leadership in the world. speak to you. to ,ou are the diplomat's diplomat and 13 years ago on from the sailors in iran, i want to say. i want to engage how not

destroyed but how apart is the u.s. state department. i understand that is a delicate question and you don't mean to demean the trump administration, but what is the state as you perceive it of the diplomacy of the united states of america. do we have the process to do it right away within a biden administration? nigel: there is a machine there just as there is in the u.k. and other countries, which can be reactivated. every president has the right to style in his own diplomacy with the rest of the world. president trump's is highly personal. it doesn't use the machinery of the government available to him. for allies like the u.k., no doubt about it, we would prefer more of the machine to be involved because that brings that additional consistency and

resiliency. it depends on who the president chooses for the key jobs -- secretary of state, national security advisor, defense secretary. all of those things are important, and those people have not been absolutely key in the trump administration. for the rest of the world and particularly for america's allies, have known figures in those key roles come having people who spread out and formed coalitions and debate policy and get allies behind the united states, rather than expecting allies to respond to rather random initiatives and comments which are not always followed through, i think that would be a trumpasier thing than the is one. come if there tom: i haven't asked this

question yet, so we will try it out and see how it goes. how would you define biden normalcy? nigel: i was in washington in the 1980's as a diplomat, back ago, so ir 12 years have seen a lot of vice president biden as a senator and as a vice president. i think the economist got it right when they called him biden the pragmatist. he is a fully functioning coalition building politician. coalitions in the building with allies, and i think he has a traditional view of american power, but at as changed -- that has changed in the last 20 years. one of the worries of the united states and what it has to be -- it -- to rebuild is

has been lacking, i think, during the trump administration. there have been moments where on the middle east come on china, it seems as though there are coherent initiatives emerging, but that hasn't really been the case so far. it has been very much the forgotten part of this administration and their policies. ambassador, how will joe biden, if he becomes president elect, work with boris johnson on brexit? nigel: vice president biden knows the united kingdom extremely well. inknows what we contribute diplomacy, intelligence, counterterrorism, all of those things. but i think he and his team -- i think they are worried about brexit. that, as they analyze the zigzags in british policy over brexit and negotiations,

they will be worried. so i think we in the u.k. and our government in the u.k. do use one thing available to which i think will is the path of the biden administration, and that is to do a deal -- will ease the path of the b.i. demonstration, and that is to do a deal. we will see what happens in washington first. for the u.k.nwise with a biden administration in washington, to say we are not going to have a deal with europe, to be cut off in the drift. i don't think that makes sense, and it doesn't make sense either in terms of our future trade deal with united states. i'm sure there would be one with the trump administration. i actually think there would be one, but probably more slowly, with a biden administration. but i think we will be in a much we get someition if solid basis for our relationship

with their nearest and most important trading partner, which is the former partners in the european union. connected, ande i hope the u.k. government strengthens its vision soon with united states internationally by deal.g a i would much rather have that be in the bank than to be waiting in the uncertainty for something to happen in the years ahead. francine: thank you so much for your time today, nigel sheinwald, the former ambassador to the u.s. come also some great perspective on joe biden. the tightly contested u.s. election comes against the backdrop of growing coronavirus cases. at gilts and the u.k., treasuries in the u.s., and we look at the fed. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance, our election special 2020, day two. francine and tom, as always, from london and new york. it is also fed decision day, the central bank likely to hold off on policy changes while the u.s. election hangs in the balance. is dr. nannette from credit'herbe suisse when you look at the markets, we are positive about what they are seeing right now in the u.s.. do you worry that we won't get the stimulus that we so badly need? because it looks like we are

edging toward a biden presidency but a republican senate. nannette: i think there are two things that are shining through how the markets have been reacting over the last 24 hour's. one is that apparently for markets, it is more important what the outlook is on regulations than what is ahead in terms of stimulus, because otherwise tech stocks would not starkeacted in that very way. so coming back to the outlook for the stimulus, i mean, i don't think markets will be too a medium-sizedby stimulus, which is more likely with the political landscape emerging for the congress and the collaboration with the white house, especially under this .hared power scenario but i do think that actually a stimulus package is likely to

come, postelection, even though there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment as to the outcome of these elections. republicanst the are already in the senate to work toward such a stimulus. so altogether i think the market is taking it all on the positive side. francine: what could actually come and heard that? have we -- and hurt that? have we under estate on technology stocks, and are you worried about valuations in certain part of the markets -- have we underestimated -- nannette: they will be very sensitive to anything that is likely to prove disruptive, so i do think that the sectors most sensitive to regulatory changes and outlook and headwinds are the tech and the health care

sector. what we should anticipate under shared power -- for example, with congress having one house still democrat lead, and the , isr being republican led that regulatory changes are not going to prove disruptive. i think that this is very important. what could disrupt valuations and the whole prospect that is at the moment quite optimistic about the future outlook for earnings, the future outlook of an economic recovery is back in the public health territory. we should not be underestimating the fact that we have now a second wave of the pandemic, and that countries have taken different strategies to manage this public health situation. those that have invested very rapidly in getting to approving a vaccine are probably better

positioned to quickly go onto the path of recovery. take a look at asia. i think they are absolutely leading the pack on that, but also the united states is pretty well-placed with good hopes that if a vaccine is going to be approved before the end of the year, that the first amount of doses will be made available to critical sectors of the economy at that time. of course, the public health sector, health care being the first one with health care workers. other regions are less well positioned, and europe is bracing now to have a more rocky certainly fourth-quarter, but potentially even the next half of the year because simply the distance to approving a vaccine in europe seems to be longer. , thank youannette has clarifi d

for being with us. we will have plenty more on the u.s. election, and we continue out ifg down if we find joe biden is on the rink of claiming the presidency. -- on the brink of claiming the presidency. remains republican, and joe biden possibly president. to be rebound in technology stocks, and we are expecting no major changes to tackle regulations in the bull market. this is bloomberg. ♪ good morning.

francine: bloomberg surveillance with tom and nancy, and our election 2020 special of it -- with tom and francine, and our election 20 special coverage. biden on the brink of winning it, and then we look at

market impact. tom: the vix is my big story. to get you ready for election 2020, wonderful people coming up. i believe david folkerts-landau will join us from deutsche bank. a conversation with the governor of the bank of england, and we start strong in the next hour with peter trubowitz with the london school of economics. please stay with us on election 2020. u.s. futures, they rise. we will see what will happen in arizona, nevada, and on to pennsylvania. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

francine: button on the brink. michigan goes blue. the next four years hang on georgia, nevada, and pennsylvania. qe from the boe. officials boat -- vote to boost stimulus to preempt double-dip recession. good morning, everyone. welcome to "bloomberg surveillance," and welcome to our election special. i think it is a conviction on the markets, spec tatian's we are not going to see extra regulate -- on expectations that we are not going to see extra regulations in the u.s. and as we look at a possible biden presidency with a republican senate. what is interesting is what the vix is doing, and i look at pound because we need to mention the boe, a bigger package than expected full-time and guy johnson will speak with governor bailey. tom: that